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Friday, May 30, 2008

Happy Weekend...and we say goodbye to the great Harvey Korman. Here he is with Tim Conway trying to keep a straight face and failing!

Brother talk about watching paint dry...this is one of the most uneventful days in a long time. Maybe its the nice weather in NYC...not sure but trading today is by appointment only.

Penn Virginia (PVG) is up 1 and some change at 33 and is today's biggest winner as it follows up Penn Virginia (PVA) which is up 9 dollars on horizontal drilling success. Plains All American (PAA) up 1 and change as well on the increase guidance and upgrade. Alliance Resource (ARLP) and Natural Resource (NRP) are up 1 each. If its coal..its up. DCP Midstream (DPM) E V Partners (EVEP) Williams (WPZ) Holly Partners (HEP) and Crosstex (XTEX) all showing fractional gains.

Exterran Partners (EXLP) Inergy Holdings (NRGP) and Hiland Holdings (HPGP) down fractions to a point on non existent volume so that could change by days end. The mlp index is up just under 1 point as of this posting.

Crude was up 1 then down 1..up 1 and change again to the days coming off that. Volitlilty has been the word here with these wild swings. Bulls and bears...someone will get exhausted very soon.

After the close yesterday Plains All American (PAA) boosted guidance for the year and they raised their distribution guidance for the year. Morgan Keegan notices and raised PAA to outperform from market perform. Sometimes this stuff moves mlps and sometimes it doesn't But i will be optimistic.

Crude overnight briefly traded below 125 before rallying and is now up 1 and change and near 128. But this market has been nuts and who knows where it will be later today. Plus this may not necessarily be a positive for energy stocks which we have noticed lately days when crude is up and big energy is down and versa visa...i mean visa versa. My guess is a bounce for energy stocks at the open and then we'll see if sellers take over. And mlps yesterday on the whole were higher as the index closed up over 1 point while the rest of energy was down 2 to 3% in some cases.

Its Friday kids and the last day of the month and we are near 200 day moving averages on many charts so this could be one of those days. No other corporate developements and no other upgrades or downgrades. Standing by for the open.

Thursday, May 29, 2008

Crude oil is imploding down $4.68 as of this posting and the MLP index is up 1.22 while big energy is down today and the overall market is up. The dollar rally is very strong and i think this is boosting mlps with their high yields rather than seeing weakness from the energy patch. This as intererst rates are rising. The 10 year is at 4.11 up 10 basis points.

Most mlps are higher today with the few losers down small fractions. Nustar (NS) is down 47 cents as the biggest major loser. Winners include Kinder Morgan (KMP) Calumet (CLMT) Plains All American (PAA) Holly (HEP) among others showing some nice fractional gains. No outstanding big winners but the tape is moving in the right direction.

Finally seeing oil crack along with everything else commodity driven.

After my completely wrong diagnosis of the daily trade yesterday i'm just going to let the market play itself out with regards to oil . We went from being down nearly 3 dollars at this point yesterday to up 2 and change at the high. 130 is trying to hold this morning with crude down nearly 1 dollar and inventory numbers due out later.

Anyone notice yesterday that the 10 year pushed above 4%? Well i haven't put this up in awhile but what about an MLP index vs 10 year rate chart.

Notice that mlps fell as rates fell to that 262 intraday low which pretty much was in lockstep with the 10 year rate low near 3.30 and we've moved to 291 as rates have risen 70 basis points. Since the rate fall is a flight from risk, mlps suffered. The rate rise is a return to risk and MLPs have moved higher from those gut wrenching lows. But from here if the 10 year rise is due to increased inflation risk what does that mean for MLPS? I know you posters in a bad mood; i already know what you are going to say. But it is a relationship we may need to be watching closely again. Or perhaps we should have been watching it all along.

The energy complex is down as of this posting except for nat gas which is up a few ticks. The dollar is rallying nicely this morning. Stock futures are a little lower but nothing tragic as GDP revisions are out later this morning. No headlines this morning on the corporate front and so far nothing on the upgrade downgrade list. But those things could change as the morning is young.

Noticed lots of end of month action yesterday with shares getting moved around on a few mlps. I would expect more distortions in both directions today as players shift positions around.

Wednesday, May 28, 2008

I could not have been more wrong about today. Markets are very humbling!

MLP index closed flat.
This is turning into one of the most boring trading days in a long time. Nothing is moving much in either direction. Snooozzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz!
BTW for those of you interested the DUG's follow the Dow Jones Total US Market Oil and Gas (^DJUSEN) just about tick for tick...what ever pct the index is down...the DUG will be up about double.
I really thought we were in for a big down day on anything energy but so far...i'm wrong. The mlp index is down just a little bit less than 1 point. Crude which was down nearly 3 this morning is up about 1 right now. Picking tops and timing them to make money is not as easy as it sounds.

Martin Midstream (MMLP) is down 1 and some change as the biggest loser but i don't see any headlines here. Both Nustars (NS, NSH) are barely up after issuing guidance for the quarter.

Well so wrong was i on the selloff...crude is actually rallying from 126 low and is now almost flat. But will it hold? Overall market hanging on to a small gain but financials are selling off. MLPS are slightly lower. Nustar (NS,NSH) put out guidance for the quarter and the market likes it enough to add fractions.

Oil is even as i type. Big energy has turned least for now.
No news and no upgrades or downgrades so far this morning. Enterprise GP continues to make market purchases of Energy Transfer Equity (ETE) as they have been on a regular basis over the last few weeks.

Crude down just under 2 bucks and stock futures up 4 points on the S&P. I may be wrong but i am looking for weakness to take over as the day wears on especially in energy...and especially in big energy. Interesting day ahead.

I got up early this morning just in time to see oil plunge 2 dollars and that is after yesterday's nearly 4 dollar loss. Now if this selling gets really serious later today and it spreads to the other markets it could make for a very messy day for anything energy....and for that matter everything else if the hedge funds really have to start selling. Now maybe i'm getting a little dramatic here but keep an eye on things today. And MLPS are likely to move lower here but this could be a buying opportunity since we know that price for most mlps is not a huge issue.

The MLP index still in this basing phase but notice the XOI index of big oil has room to correct here into those movinig averages which are 3 percent below yesterday's close for the 34 day and 5% below for the 55 day moving average. And the xoi appears to have no problem going below that from time to time.
And the USO has the average down at 97.50 which would equate crude down around 115.

Stock futures are flat right now as of this post and being that its so early, i wll post again before the open.

Tuesday, May 27, 2008

OIL down...Big energy stocks down...MLPS down. All makes sense. The overall market is doing nothing much as it pulls back and forth in here in a tight range.

Atlas Energy (ATN) is down 1.65 as the biggest loser. Kinder Morgan (KMP)is down 1. Calumet (CLMT) and Plains All American (PAA) are down major fractions. Nustar (NS) and Atlas Pipeline (APL) are down and Nustar is back under 50.

Holly Partners (HEP) is up nearly 1 as the second biggest winner but there are not many others on that last. DCP Midstream (DPM) is up 44 cents. Exterran Partners (EXLP) is up over 2 dollars as the biggest standout.

Tuesday's after a 3 day weekend always feel like its slow to get going. And here in MLP land we are always even slower than everyone else. Outside of some corporate changes being announced at Crosstex Energy (XTEX,XTXI) we don't see too much happening. The energy markets however are moving higher. Crude is up around 1 dollar, nat gas has a 12 handle this morning and heating oil is just about at a 4 handle. Amazing that every hint at a selloff brings in more buyers. But this insanity has to end somewhere.

We need to recognize a few things going on right now that might have impact. Keep an eye on the big energy stocks. They sold off Friday with everything else and in fact were among the overall markets biggest losers. One day does not a trend make but as i have pointed out many times we will be dragged along. The overall market sold off last week on 4 of the 5 days and we have given back about 1/2 the rally in the dow to 13,100. The good news is that the MLP index is holding up better in here relative to the action we saw in the first 3 months of the year. Interest rates are rising with the ten year at 3.83 which normally would be a negative but i wonder whether we're at one of those points where that part of the equation has some head room before we have to worry thanks to very wide yield spreads over the 10 year. Also watch Lehman and whether trouble is brewing there since they hold large stakes in some mlps and we know what happened last March when they raided Lehman after the Bear Sterns collapse. I'm not suggesting a calamity in here but we are at tipping points on many issues and if the bear market exerts itself and the overall market falls to new lows guess who will get pulled along for the ride. So let us be vigilant for developments.

Nothing else going on this morning and no upgrades or downgrades.

Saturday, May 24, 2008

Hope everyone is enjoying their holiday weekend. I'm working tonight and bored. For those of you interested in how "DUG" works here is a good place to explain it all. DUG is the ultrashort oil and gas and it follows the dow jones energy index. It does not necessarily move with crude oil but with stocks that make up the index. Thats why Friday the DUG's were up 1 while crude was also up 1 and change. More at that link for those interested.

Friday, May 23, 2008

Sell off going into the weekend in all equities. Dow is down 115 pts. Big Energy (XOI )is down 22 points or 1.5%. Big Energy Gas (XNG) is down over 2%. And the MLP index is down 2 points or .67% ish. But the DUG's are up nicely...nearly 1 point now at 28.40 and they effectively hedge your MLPS if the decline gets a little rough.

No news on Exterran Partners (EXLP) but for some reason its up nearly 2 dollars today. Maybe they said something that somebody liked yesterday at the MLP conference. Constellation Energy Partners (CEP) is up 44 cents as another among the few winners today.

Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP), Natural Resource (NRP) Atlas Energy Resource (ATN) and Calumet (CLMT) all down 1 or more on the long losers list today.

Crude still up 1 and change right now and off the highs but the energy equities are selling off hard so they may be signaling (finally) a short term top but i hesitate given the bullishness in crude that shows up on every small pullback.

We had 1 whole down day yesterday in crude as we gave back 1/2 of the gain from the day before. This morning we have gained back 1/2 of yesterday's loss. So at the end of the day we are down 3 bucks from yesterday's intra day high of 135 and some change. Who knows if the top is in but stock futures are lower this morning. This might have a bigger impact on the DUG if oil stocks drop if the overall market takes gas. We'll see. No headlines this morning on MLPS and so far no upgrades or downgrades in the list so far.

I couldn't figure out why the sell off yesterday in MLPS to the tune of 3 plus points on the index. It hit me last night however as i was driving to the bowling alley (don't ask). Yesterday was the MLP conference in NYC and i think it was a buy the rumour sell the news move. No big announcements so there were longs in there who were expecting something and they sold. That simple. I don't think it was the crude sell off yesterday or the selling in energy stocks that was the primary mover here.

Friday before Memorial Day Weekend so i hope everyone has some plans. I have a soccer tournament and work. Weather too cool here for the beach or pool so i think i will head to Belmont and try to earn a living there. Monday is the MET MILE.

Thursday, May 22, 2008

at the lows of the day now on the MLP index down over 3 points. Nustar (NS) down nearly 2 is the biggest loser of the day. Winner list is small and shrinking. Some of the recent gainers seeing the most selling today.

Oil down 2.57. Its a start.
Oil now down 2 dollars! And at the lows of the day!!!!

It looked like oil was about to crack and while its down 1.34 its off yesterday's 5 dollar gain so i'm not impressed. But the last hour often times brings out sellers so we will watch. MLPS are down 2 points on the index but thats because all the big boys in it are down today major fractions like Kinder Morgan (KMP) Nustar (NS) which is down 1 and change. Oneok (OKS)and Atlas Pipeline (APL) are also fractional losers. Atlas Energy Resource (ATN) is down 1 and change.

Winners include Calumet (CLMT) DCP Midstream (DPM) and Inergy Holdings (NRGP) among other showing fractional gains.

Hey the DUG is up a few cents and off its highs.

Notice on the DUG chart (below)that the last 2 rallies (oil stock selloffs) occured in January and March. One went from 35 to 55..the other was smaller from 36 to 44. I would think an oil sell off could cause the XOI (above)to correct by at least 150 points back to 1500.

Looks like Breitburn (BBEP) is the latest MLP to put in a meaningful bottom on the chart. Looks like its rallying out of the base.

Nothing new on headlines or upgrades and downgrades.


Crude oil just keeps right on going hitting 135.09 whiile you were sleeping. Its off those highs but still up another dollar. Its gotten ridiculous in here...although i thought it did 2 weeks ago but then again thats me. The USO could correct to the moving averages and still leave the uptrend in tact. So a move to say 95 would correspond with a 115 ish oil price. Thats 20 bucks from here.

A few of you btw may be confused about the DUG which is the Powershares Ultra short oil and gas. Many of you wondered how the DUG finished up yestereday while oil was up 4 bucks. Well the answer is that the DUG follows the oil and gas stocks which reversed yesterday and closed lower based on the XOI and XNG indexes. If oil corrects hard the equity should fall hard as well...especially if the stock market has entered some sort of corrective mode. My average price is 29 as i laddered in over the last 2 weeks. I want to emphasize that this is for a short term trade and if we get back to the low 30s...i will be selling. BTW the DUG did a key reversal yesterday. Equity tends to lead in these things.

The MLP index closed above 300 and traded at 302 intra-day yesterday. If the market has entered a corrective phase we will get pulled down but unless we see a complete energy collapse i expect us to outperform given that the pipe issues and credit issues appear to be gone.

This morning we have stock futures bouncing a bit but i think its a low confidence move. No news and nothing on the upgrade downgrade list so far this morning.. News item from Williams (WPZ) yesterday talking about expanding capacity in this enviornment.

So get set for another day of exciting trading. Cost me 60 bucks yesterday to fill up my truck. Went to the Yankee Game. 2 tickets, parking, 1 sausage and peppers, 1 hot dog, 1 pretzel, popcorn, 2 sodas. Add gasoline and tolls and the night cost me over 200 bucks. And i sat in the nosebleeds! But it was cap night so we got 2 baseball caps! Glory!

Finally in politics I have been hoping Hillary would stay in the race purely for entertainment purposes. And she is not disapointing me.

Wednesday, May 21, 2008

Crude oil in blow off mode here up nearly 4 dollars and almost to 133. MLPS up nearly 2 on the index. Most mlps are higher. No one point winners but we have strong fractional gains in a host of issue including Nustar (NS), Hiland (HLND) Cheniere (CQP) EV Partners (EVEP) Duncan Partners (DEP), Inergy Holdings (NRGP) Oneok (OKS) Natural Resource Partner (NRP) Targa Resource (NGLS) among others.

A few losers but nothing noteworthy. Holly (HEP) and DCP Midstream (DPM) are down small fractions.

Fed minutes will probably wag the dog at 2pm so fasten seatbelts.

Some benchmarks are more important to others...some become so because they are round numbers. We hit 300 yesterday on the mlp index which may or may not be important. Certainly its important to us because 300 at least brings us back to the better times we we're enjoying a year ago.

The weekly mlp chart btw never turned completely bearish through this entire mess and right now is on a buy based on some technicals. So it seems we have the wind at our backs here. We could concievely head to 310 which would put us at the top of the shoulder. The XOI index of course is following the oil price and it has broken out nicely. While crude is in the parabolic mode MLPS will continue to move up in the ride. And when the correction comes (if it ever does) we'll probably get pulled along for that ride as well.

No headlines so far this morning and no upgrades or downgrades on the list yet. Insiders continue to be especially active in Calumet Specialty Products (CLMT) and that probably drove prices up over 16 dollars intraday yesterday. Also we have the ultimate insider in Dan Duncan who continues to buy shares of Energy Transfer Equity (ETE). Bullish action longer term to see insider at the market purchases. Calumet of course remains under strain as refining products continues under price pressure but it remains interesting that refiners have rallied this week. So maybe they are flashing a longer term signal of some sort. Still as far as Calumet is concerned i would wait for a stronger bottom pattern to form. Might be good to ladder in here if we see prices pull back from here back down to the 11-12 area for a chart retest. Speaking of ladders i picked up a few more shares of DUG which is the double short oil and gas ultra fund. Call me nuts but one of these days. Average price at 29.

Tuesday, May 20, 2008

Keep an eye on the overall tape because it is week with the dow down 200+. If the weakness deepens it may bring everything down with it in the last hour. Just a note of caution here.



Thought i'd post a few of my favorite charts...some are favorites because i like to look at them and not necessarily trade them...others i trade or own. And of course there are opinions attached to all of them. Its like looking at a painting and trying to figure out if it symbolizes mans inhumanity to man in an existentialist universe...or no it really is just a bowl of fruit!

The USO chart which is crude oil. Enough said here. Can't add anything new. Waiting for that correction that will just never come. UNG below is nat gas which looks to be pulling back into the moving averages. I might get interested here if the pullback takes us near the 89 day moving average (around 48-49). Watching for now.

Now here is a switch. Ths hated MLP looks much better on the my view. In fact i would say this chart look bullish. Constellation (CEP) has broken out of a base as of yesterday (on some decent volume).

Calumet Specialty Products (CLMT) which has gone from 50 to 11 without even stopping for a even a dead cat bounce...finally dead cat bounced yesterday by 2 points. I am inclined not to buy the first bounce but wait for it to pullback into the 11 area for a second time.

Linn Energy (LINN) has continued to carve out a nice W bottom in here and looks to me like we are headed for an upside breakout above 24.50 and if it comes on volume we might see 30 again.

No news this morning although this is an early post and we have no upgrades or downgrades so far. More later as headlines break.

Monday, May 19, 2008

3 trusts are buying Calumet Specialty Products (CLMT) on the open market with both hands. Here are the form 4 sec filings.

Hertiage Trust
Maggie Trust
Feshenfeld Trust

Heritage said last week they would be buying an additional 575,000 shares between now and the end of May. Looks like they are following through on that promise. CLMT back over 13 up 1.40.
The mlp index is up 1.41 at 298 and we continue to see uptrends and even some breakouts developing on a few charts. Penn Virginia broke out of a base in the 28 area and is up 40 cents to 30.63. Believe it or not Constellation Partners (CEP) is breaking out of a short term base as it is up 1 at 21.40. What is interesting today is that we are seeing strength in issues that have been under pressure lately due to rising oil prices. Cheniere Partners (CQP) is up 1 and change as is Calumet Specialty Products (CLMT). Teekay (TOO) is up 1 and change on the Wachovia upgrade.

EV Partners (EVEP) which was last week's big winner is down 82 cents as the biggest loser on the list today. Most losers are down less than 30 cents however and there are no news driven standouts.

Any guesses out there about what oil is doing? Up again of course which is the only way the oil trade works these days. One of these days this manic move will correct but so far...not today. MLPS meanwhile continue to just follow along in constructive fashion. Most mlps continue to put distance between their current price and their 52 week lows. And the chart of the index itself continues to build what i think is a long term bottom from which we can rally nicely. But in this group the paint tends to dry very slowly but we get paid nicely to watch it dry.

USO is a proxy for crude oil and the chart speaks for itself. UNG is the nat gas proxy and that is also in bullish mode. Discouraging at 4.09 a gallon here in NY.

Btw if you really want to see inflation head to the supermarket where a 1.75 quart of ice cream (not even the dignity of a half gallon anymore!) can run you close to 7 bucks!

Nothing on the headline front this morning but we do have Lehman upping its target on Boardwalk Partners (BWP) to 28 from 23 while keeping it at equal weight. Wachovia upgrades Teekay Offshore Partners (TOO) to outperform from market perform.

Friday, May 16, 2008

Atlas Energy Resources increases the number of shares in its offering.

Also Goldman raises its second half oil forecast to 140 and of course oil is up 3 dollars. Talk about a self fulfilling prophecy. How about ridiculous! They basically control the whole oil market anyway. Glory!

The moves are head-spinning...mind numbing and just about as insane as you can get. Yesterday oil was up 2 bucks and change...down 3 bucks...closed flat....and is up 3 dollars this morning at 127.00 which is a new contract high. I've given up trying to pick where the top is but i continue to slowly build a "long" short position in DUG which is a proxy for short oil and gas. In other words if you are long DUG you profit if oil and gas stocks go down. One of these days we will see this correct and correct hard. Just don't ask me when.

All of this has some impact on mlps which continue to behave rather well overall and many issues continue to put price and time distance from their March lows. Its a Friday so the news flow is light. Nothing yet on headlines and nothing on the upgrade downgrade list so far.

Your distribution checks posted into your accounts yesterday so spend well or reinvest well...your choice of course. I'm doing both actually. I'm at work this morning so i may have missed a headline. If i have...please share it with the rest of the class in the comments section. One item left from yesterday is that Atlas Resources (ATN) did price an offering of shares which has the stock under pressure this morning. No mention in the press release of a price for said offering. It might be nice to know.

Thursday, May 15, 2008

We have an nice size open market insider purchase at Calumet Specialty Products (CLMT). At least a small vote of confidence as the stock hovers near 52 week lows.
Crude is selling off pretty hard right now down over 2 dollars and this has taken the XOI which was up nearly 2% just about back to the flat line and the XNG which was up 1 1/2% is now down 1/2%. This action has taken the MLP index down 1 point.

Watch the energy complex could get ugly for energy later this afternoon.
A one point gain on the MLP index with energy stocks moving higher overall. Linn Energy getting a goose of 75 cents this morning. I'm not sure why. A headline crossed from somebody that i can't see yet. It could be an upgrade or a form 4 insider buy. Not sure but if i find out i will post. Coal mlps doing okay today. Alliance is up 1 and so is Natural Resource Partners(NRP). Penn Virginia Holdings (PVG) and Penn Virginia Resources (PVR) up fractions. Hiland Holdings (HPGP) up fractional on the Lehman target raise. Calumet (CLMT) and Constellation (CEP) are up fractionally as well.

Not too much on the losers list of note. US Shipping (USS) stopped going down and is actually up 33 cents today. Buckeye Holdings (BGH) and Markwest (MWE) showing small losses.

RBC reminds us it has an outperform rating on Targa Resources (NGLS)

Watch crude. If it sells off...big energy will sell off..and if big energy sells off...we may come off the highs of the day.

Lehman and Citigroup are on the horn this morning making some moves. Citigroup is starting coverage on EV Partners (EVEP) with a buy and a 35 dollar price target. Lehman is talking about Crosstex (XTEX) which it leaves at equal weight but is raising its upside target by 2 dollars to 38 bucks. It is also leaving Hiland Holdings (HPGP) at overweight and raising its target there to 29 from 27. No action in the premarket yet on any of these issues.

Crude is up this morning by 80 cents. Stock futures are a little higher ahead of the open. No corporate headlines this morning. Teekay Shipping (TOO, TGP) chief was on CNBC this morning with an interesting interview. Video link here.

Wednesday, May 14, 2008

Small correction on the Heritage story...they plan to buy 575,000 shares not 750,000. Sorry but sometimes my mind goes dislexic.

Nat gas strong this morning while crude is down to 125. Nat gas strength could be the reason why some mlps have caught a bid lately.

UBS keeps Regency Energy (RGNC) at a buy but nudges the target down to 35 from 37.

Poor holders of Calumet Specialty Products (CLMT) have seen their investments implode thanks to the unrelenting crude price rise. Refiners have been squeezed as demand for refined products remains low and margins are down to almost nothing so you can't make any money...or worse you bleed money. The chart bleeds!

This morning we have a Dow Jones headline that Heritage has taken an 18% stake in Calumet. Here is the 13d filing. BTW they say they plan to purchase an additional 750,000 shares between now and the end of May. Glory! Speaking of bleeding UBS cuts US Shipping (USS) to a sell. US Shipping yesterday said that future distributions are at risk thanks to horrible business conditions for them.

In other news this morning if you were planning to apply for the job of Senior VP in charge of exploration for Chenire Energy (LNG,CQP) don't bother. The company announces it is eliminating that position. I just have a headline details. But when your stock has gone from 40 to 4 in a hurry it can't be good news.

Insiders have been active lately and i would point to DCP Midstream (DPM) which has seen a couple of insiders step up to the plate and buy some shares in the open market. Open market purchases are bullish in my view.

Crude is down 56 cents as of this posting ahead of inventory numbers. The crude market made a new contract high yesterday at just under 127 but closed off that high. The US government will stop buying oil to fill the SPR which is a good symbolic move in here. Crude is completely out of control and i still maintain that when the right piece of news comes along you will see 20 bucks come out of the price in a hurry. Nat gas is up 25 cents this morning and is getting closer to 12 bucks now. Nat gas is in its own little world right now and will probably hold up to some degree should oil sell off big. The dollar continues to rally and we wait CPI at 8:30 am edt. Stock futures are a little weaker this morning ahead of the number,

MLPS continue to hold their own in here. Penn Virginia Holdings (PVG) broke out of a base yesterday and is back over 30. Constellation (CEP) is getting back to near 20. EV Partners (EVEP) is getting back to near 30. We continue to (slowly) head in the right direction. And pessimism on this board by posters continues to remain bearish overall...a good sign!

Tuesday, May 13, 2008

Penn Virginia Holdings (PVG) is breaking out on volume and is today's big winner up 1.84 at 30 and small change. Chart repairing continues in the likes of Linn Energy (LINE) Constellation (CEP) Hiland (HLND) among others which are up fractions to 1 point. The MLP index is down 1 point led lower by the big boys in the group.

Tape overall in MLP continues to feel a little better every day.
Raaymond James upgrades Linn Energy to outperform from market perform. The boys at ray jimmies usually make good calls in the past.
Lots of pre market action in Linn Energy (LINE) which is last at 22.50 up 37 cents. No news that i could find but volume is 5500 shares. Not bad for this stock in the pre-market.

We had earnings last night after the close from the following companies.

Breitburn Partners (BBEP)
Energy Transfer Partners (ETP)
Energy Transfer Equity (ETE)
Markwest Energy (MWE)

Numbers from all the companies look very good. Sometimes earnings move the stock like in EV Partners (EVEP) yesterday which was up nearly 2 points. And sometimes it doesn't. We'll see shortly but the short term path for mlps of least resistence seems to be up.

US Shipping (USS) looks to be the disaster de jour' as they put up earnigns last night...declared a distribution but went on to site ongoing pressure and a need to perhaps re-capitalize. The stock is down 1.63 in the premarket this morning to just over 10 bucks. Cheniere Partners (CQP) got hit for another buck or so yesterday and sits at 8.50 ish as it continues to react to its parent Cheniere (LNG) as it struggles to survive.

No headlines this morning. We have oil bouncing up 50 cents after yesterday's reversal after a new contract high of 126.40. Nat gas is a little higher as well. There are some world supply numbers due out this morning in crude so that could be an energy mover. Still long DUG here as i think crude has got to pull in. I talked to my brother in law who trades on the NYMEX and he says if oil breaks 110 decisively you should look for big sell offs in gold and silver that could bring pain and gnashing of teeth to those long the metals. Just his never to be humble opinion. He also says if crude sells down to 110 and it holds it would be another double bottom...then look for crude to rally to 150.

No guarantees from the management.

Monday, May 12, 2008

2 more earnings reports out this morning. Targa Resources (NGLS) and Regency Partners (RGNC). RBC takes Cheniere (LNG) from outperform to underperform. Has the last idiot downgraded this one or are there still more out there?

More on the headline shortly but we continue to move along the the repair job that seems to spreading across MLP land. The real test will come if crude oil corrects (because we know it never will) and how MLP react to any broad sell off in big energy. So far MLPS have held up well agains any day to day noise in the world where they often shoot first and ask questions later.

Among some of the worst performers at least we see bases in the likes of Constellation Energy Partners (CEP) which i think is setting up to head back into the 20s shortly.
Linn Energy (LINE) among that list of most hated MLPS continues to form a nice "W" bottom and could challenge 24.50-25 which if we get above that would be a nice breakout formation. The stock price firmed up last week after earnings so I remain positive here (and long)
Eagle Rock Energy Partners (EROC) has come out of its bottom formation and finished last week right at the highs so here the path of least resistence is higher and 20 could be on the horizon.

Okay now back to the headline. EV Partners (EVEP) posts earnings this morning which contain the usual noise. Now when you back out the deriviates mark to market losses on the hedges you come up with 58 cents for the quarter. But the most important thing is the company is pre-announcing a distribution boost of a whopping 8 cents a share to 70 cents or $2.80 annual which places this outperformer at an over 10% yield based on Friday's close. Should be a nice mover this morning.

Crude oil is down this morning by 80 cents or so at 125 and small change as the dollar rallies. Nat gas is up and gasoline is down by a few pennies. I paid 4.05 for regular this weekend.

Finally this morning we have the double disaster as Cheniere Energy (LNG) and Cheniere Parnters (CQP) which both remain in free fall..LNG is in worse shape..survival in question for that one and Citigroup downgrades the stock this morning to hold from buy. Use a ten foot pole here and stay away unless you enjoy the casino.

Friday, May 09, 2008

Crude continues to move unrelentingly higher in an almost parabolic state..up 2 dollars and just under 126. Bigger energy stocks are selling off along with the stock market which is at the lows of the day. MLPs on the other hand are not acting badly. In fact take a look at the usual suspects from months back that just couldn't catch a bid...and they are now getting some. Nothing huge but still it is up. Linn Energy is up 34 cents to 22.61. Constellation is up 30 cents. Legacy Partners (LGCY) is up 1 and change and is among today's big winners along with Natural Resource Partners (NRP) Alliance Holdings (AHGP) and Oneok LP (OKS).

Kinder Morgan (KMP) and Enterprise (EPD) are down 50 cents each and probably make up the bulk of the nearly 1 point loss in the mlp index.

Cheniere Energy (LNG) is getting crushed today on earnings at 5.68 down 2.22 as prospects for survivial here could be an issue. The MLP (CQP) is down a bit less...0.55 at 10.71.
Linn Energy (LINE) active (relatively speaking ) this morning in the pre market...2500 shares traded...22.76 up 49 cents. No news that i can it could mean nothing.

Oil going for 6 up record closes and since last Thursday when crude was being given away at 111 we have shot up to 125 and change this morning...up 2 dollars as of this posting. Stock market going to open down hard by at least 120 points. Not a pretty start out there. MLP will get pulled along for the ride of course.

Earnings news from Cheniere Energy (LNG) which for now we see only headline flashes but the sec filing has this about Cheniere Partners (CQP).

For each calendar quarter through June 30, 2009, Cheniere Partners is expected to make quarterly cash distributions of $0.425 per unit on all outstanding common units, as well as related distributions to its general partner, from restricted cash and cash equivalents. Through June 30, 2009, we anticipate receiving $4.8 million per quarter out of the total $11.4 million quarterly distribution. After June 30, 2009, a distribution reserve established in connection with Cheniere Partners' initial public offering is expected to have been depleted, and Cheniere Partners will rely on the receipt of operating revenues from Sabine Pass LNG's TUAs to fund future quarterly cash distributions to us and other unitholders. Sabine Pass LNG is not permitted under the Senior Notes indenture to make cash distributions to Cheniere Partners if it does not satisfy a fixed charge coverage ratio test of 2:1, calculated as required in the indenture. When Cheniere Marketing makes its capacity reservation fee payments under its TUA of $250 million per year in addition to the TUA payments of $250 million aggregate payments by Total and Chevron under their TUAs, we anticipate that the fixed charge coverage ratio test will be met and we expect to receive, subject to declaration by Cheniere Partners' board of directors, approximately $254 million per year from Cheniere Partners in distributions on our common, subordinated and general partner units, as well as an additional $18 million of management and service fees. Until such time, we may not receive distributions equal to the amount of our TUA payment.

So at least for 1 more year CQP will be okay on distributions. Still i think there are better places for your money given the risk.

Not much else happening company news wise this morning. Nothing on the upgrade downgrade list. Nat gas is up with oil along with gasoline. BTW i saw 4 bucks a gallon for regular last night. Glory and praise! Where or where is the top?

Thursday, May 08, 2008

Some days its like watching paint dry and this is one of those days. As one poster put it yesterday....zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.

The MLP index is down just a handful of ticks. Dow back over 12900. Oil trying to sell off but not having alot of success there.

Wake me up please?
Of course its my never to be humble opinion and its slightly off topic but i think we're at a point where if oil keeps going up in spike fashion the stock market goes down and that includes big energy stocks...and if oil sells off sharply...then the market will rebound but big energy stocks will go down.

I don't know but this is how it looks to me.
Was finally able to access the Linn press release. 2 items of note. DCF ratio was 1.09 vs 1.04 and 2nd quarter coverage guidance is 1.23. Could mean a distribution increase in q2? Looks to me like the drivers are here for higher prices...but then again i'm already long here.

Earnings out from Suburban Propane this morning and they continue to roll along with good numbers. BTW scroll down to last night's post with more earnings news that broke after the close yesteday.

Busy morning as we have numbers from a couple of tortured companies this morning. More on that in a minute. The MLP index followed the oil stocks lower yesterday as the market sold off. Still the chart continues to bottom build and in fact the losses yesterday were concentrated in the big boys while the smaller fry tended to either not do much or inch a little higher.

Of course Crude remains the story as we go into spike land. The USO hit 100 dollars after the close yesterday. Look for Crude again to dictate the pace in the overall market. If the spikes continue expect stock market pressure.

Now to the morning news we have earnings from Constellation Partners (CEP) which appear ok. I went through the 8k and the earnings statement and saw nothing wrong here. So perhaps we can finally get back into the low 20s. I was trying to find the dcf number but i can't seem to find it. If anyone sees it...please post it in the comments section.
Crosstex Energy LP (XTEX,XTXI) put up its solid numbers. Now this MLP has gone nowhere in the last few years...basically sideways. Crosstex (XTXI) has been a better performer thanks to the GP splits and probably has better upside potential then the LP. Still in the bear market we went through Crosstex LP holders slept alot better.

Linn Energy also put up its earnings which headline says record results. Once you get through the noise..non gap earnings were 28 cents. Waiting for the press release to get more details.

Nothing yet on the upgrade downgrade list. Crude oil was up a its down a little. Nat gas numbers out later this morning. Stock futures are higher and they continue to follow crude tick for tick so if oil can sell off hard we could see the market get yesterday's loss back fairly quickly. ECB decision due soon but we know Europeans are best at doing nothing while sipping expressos.

Wednesday, May 07, 2008

USO just hit 100 after hours as oil continues to rise in electronic trading up 2.09 and knocking on the door of 124.

Lots of earnings after the close so i will list them with attached links

Copano (CPNO)
Martin Midstream(MMLP)
Penn Virginia Resource(PVR)
Penn Virginia Holdings (PVG)
Spectra Energy Parnters (SEP)

Also we have Plains All American pricing its stock offering. Interesting that the stock only closed down 32 cents and way off the low. Demand must have been pretty good.
I asked the question yesterday why the stock market continues to not react to the parabolic rise in oil. Well its reacting today. Down 160 on the dow. Even oil stocks are down today.
Crude stock numbers were about as bearish as you'll ever see. And oil is down a whopping 6 cents as of this post.

MLPS down today on the index by 1.45 being led by the big boys like Plains All American (PAA) Oneok LP (OKS) Nustar (NS) and the like which are all down fractions. Hiland LP (HLND) is down 2 as the leading loser but thats on extremely thin volume.

On the upside Calumet Specialty Products (CLMT) whose earnings this morning were not pretty is up 50 cents. Nothing in the quarterly report suggests another distribution cut is coming so the stock is up. Also up today Boardwalk (BWP) Magellan (MGG) and Markwest (MWE) among others but no major standouts on the winners.
Inergy LP (NRGY) and Holdings (NRGP) post earnings this morning. Solid numbers and they affirm 2008 guidance. Quicksilver also puts up quarterly numbers this morning.

Earnings for this quarterly distribution grower were actually out yesterday but Wachcovia is upgrading Magellan Holdings (MGG) to buy from hold. They must have seen something they liked. The company also raised estimates for the year.

Also left from last night is Eagle Rock Energy Partners (EROC) which posted losses due to derivative hedging but all the relevant numbers were solid. Exterran (EXLP) and Exterran Holdings (EXH) posts quarterly numbers this morning. Last night Plains All American (PAA)
announced a 5.5 million share stock offering which pressured the stock after the close.

Eyes of course on crude again as weekly numbers are out at 10:30 am. Crude while i type went from down 60 cents to up 10 cents even with the dollar rallying smartly this morning. Nat gas is down 3 cents after closing down lately. I thought this crude fever would break and i still have a short position ( i am actually long DUG which is powershares short oil and gas stocks). I was successful trading those last week but i am now holding with a small loss (nothing tragic). I still think this makes a great hedging tool for MLPS should energy every take a big drop because you know we will be taken down with them at least for awhile.

No other news items this morning and i will be watching for any upgrades or downgrades.

Tuesday, May 06, 2008

Will it ever stop going up? Its getting to the point of being silly in here. But then again the market can remain silly far longer than i can remain solvent! I am just surprised that the overall market continues to handle this so well.

Talk about performing in line. The charts below are of Teppco and the MLP index. Take a look and see how different they are!

Teppco (TPP) has pretty much followed the index almost tick for tick. I highlight this because this morning Citigroup ups Teppco to buy from hold. Could this be a signal for the entire group?

No news headlines this morning. Crude broke 120 yesterday and this morning the energy complex is pulling back a bit. I continue to believe that we are topping in here (finally) on crude and a trip down to 100 is coming very soon and will happen very fast. I'm not sure what the catylist will be to move this idea along but i figure its a safe way to hedge in here. If there is a broad sharp energy stock sell off expect mlps to follow along at least initially. Nat gas is the wild card here because i think any pullback there should be bought. No guarantees of course but i'm figuring at these levels it can't hurt to be a little cautious. If i had guts i would short USO which is a proxy for crude and trades on the AMEX. Instead i'm long DUG which is double short oil and gas and long some may calls on DUG. Fingers crossed.

Lehman is leaving Duncan Partners (DEP) at equal weight though it takes its price target down by a buck to 24 from 25. No otber news. BTW the MLP index is quietly doing a nice repair job in here as we continue to base build.

Constellation Partners (CEP) saw some buying yesterday closing up nearly 1 on decent volume. Now it could be a distribution play...or...the fact that a 2 million share block crossed last Friday and that might have been the last overhang of stock supply. We can only hope.

Monday, May 05, 2008

I have been a bit subdued since Saturday and the Kentuckey Derby. Above is a short simple tribute to an outstanding filly.

My thoughts on all this have run the range from sadness to anger. I'm a horse owner and i can tell you its easy to become attached to these beautiful creatures that God has put on this earth. They love to run.

Saturday's tragic events have led many people who watch horse racing once a year to become experts. PETA wants to shut the sport down. One blogger has called for the jockey to be euthanized in an over the top reaction to all this.

My view on all of this pretty much comes down to this. In life...bad things happen. This was one of those freak accidents. Life is not without risk. Even the vets said for a horse to break down after the race...after she had been geared down..after she had ran out 1/4 mile past the finish beyond comprehension. The jockey did absolutely nothing wrong. Anyone who saw the ESPN report before the race on Larry Jones and how he trained Eight Belles saw an owner who had nothing but love for his horse. This was in my view just one of those unexplainable things that happens in life.
Hopefully a bottom is in place! Constellation Energy Partners (CEP) leads the list of winners today up 1 on 103.000 shares. No news but it is going ex-distribution tomorrow so this could be a distribution play today.

Elsewhere Holly Partners (HEP) continues to roll up another point today. Alliance Resource (ARLP) is up 1.60 and leads the winners list as coal is moving on a big run in nat gas which is up 42 cents. Oil is up nearly 4 dollars to 120 but the the big oil stocks are not following along.
Williams (WPZ) is down about 70 cents and leads the list of losers. The MLP index is up .80 in the 294 zone.
Atlas Pipeline Partners reports record earnings this morning and we also have numbers from Atlas Holdings (AHD).


And that is the most exciting thing happening this Monday morning. Lehman is on the wire about Buckeye Partners (BPL) keeping it an an underweight and lowering the target. No breaking headlines so it really is a queit Monday morning. The mlp index above continues in this sort of sideways repair job.
Highlights this week will be the Constellation Energy Partners (CEP) earnings among others. I site this one because of how depressed this stock is over all sorts of concerns including PIPE selling, delays, cost overruns etc. If they perhaps provide some clarity here it could help.
The market focus this morning is Microsoft walking away from Yahoo. Energy is firm this morning as they add to Friday's big gains. Stock futures are soft this morning but nothing meaningful.

Friday, May 02, 2008

Penn Virginia Holdings (PVG) looks like its breaking out of a base and an inverse head and shoulders pattern.

Simple and late headline as the index is up 2 today and over 293. Sorry for the lack of posts today but its Oaks Day at Churchill and i had to work last night so i'm fried. Some nice moves today as Oneok (OKS) is up nearly 2. 1 point winners in Atlas Resource (ATN) Holly Partners (HEP) and Copano (CPNO) which was down 1 yesterday.

Not many losers. And we have a slew of ex-distributions again today including Linn Energy (LINE) which is up 11 cents even though the nasdaq shows it down.

I like Cool Coal Man in the derby and will put on top over Pyro, Court Vision, Visionaire, and Eight Belles. I'm throwing Big Brown out. If he wins it will be without my money!

Thursday, May 01, 2008

The comments section has been getting very active lately which is wonderful. Post away kids!

Meanwhile we managed to cut our losses in half on the mlp index as energy collapsed early and then rallied back about 2/3rds of the way. All of this in the face of a solid market rally which took the dow over 13000!

Holly Partners (HEP) ripped higher by 2 and change today. No news here. Markwest (MWE) was up nearly 1. Nustar Holdings (NSH) Penn Virginia Holdings (PVG) Oneok LP (OKS) all moved nicely higher by major fractions and in PVG's case it went ex-distribution on top of it.

Breitburn ups its payout to 2 dollars annual and the stock drops a dollar. Imagine what would happen if they actually came out with bad news! Copano (CPNO) was down 1.25. No news here and it had already gone ex-distibution 2 days ago. Hiland (HLND) Plains All American (PAA) and Atlas Holdings (AHD) showed fractional losses.

This morning they had some clown on CNBC talking about energy stocks worth considering here and Plains All American (PAA) but the guy says something about the PE being a little too high on this one. Shows you how much these guys know about MLP's....its about distributable cash flow!!!!!

Energy looks to continue to weaken in the face of a rising dollar. Today was really all about Exxon which led to some ridiculous wholesale selling. Once things settle down here i would expect MLPs to begin to distinguish themselves from the rest of the pack. There are some nice bases forming in a number of MLPS and one of these days we will break out of this bear grip.

Sometimes there are what i called gimmie's....easy trade set ups that just beg you to take them. Yesterday was one of those where Exxon (XOM) rallied hard ahead of earnings so nothing short of perfection was going to be met with a sell-off anyway. And since they fell short of estimates the stock gets hit even harder. I mention this because we will see pressure on energy this morning coupled with crude which is actually down 1.50 this morning and under 113. Note that crude rallied after the 2:30pm close and rose a dollar in electronic trading between 3 and 4 pm yesterday. So there is a bit of a disconnect. So look for pressure on mlps at the start. But yesterday was an example of waiting for the finish and mlps as based on the mlp index did finish higher for the day and outperformed everything else on the day.

Earnings this morning from Williams (WPZ) which look inline but a touch light on the revenue number. No other news. Lehman is keeping Teppco (TPP) at equal weight but nudges the target price down by a couple of bucks. Nothing else on the agenda this morning. Watch carefully to see if the Exxon number leads to a broader selloff in all things energy (whether rightly or wrongly we might get dragged along) or whether it remains confined to big oil. Nat gas is actually a little higher this morning and nat gas numbers are due out at 10:30am.