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Thursday, August 31, 2006

The last days of my vacation and i am dealing with a tropical storm here in coastal North Carolina. Its been raining on and off all day and evening. No posts today as i needed a break before my big drive back home. Will be leaving Saturday morning so i will post some thoughts tomorrow and then its back to normal blogging on Tuesday.

Wednesday, August 30, 2006

The latest on Ernesto from the National Hurricane Center. Note it is no longer being forecast to become a hurricane and all hurricane watches have been canceled. And of course we have priviate forecasters who have predicted damage from Florida to Maine and flooding the worst since Noah set sail. And of course the futures markets are now reacting to every cloud that moves off the coast of Africa. Frankly as a meteorologist it has me feeling a bit depressed that my job now involves bringing everything to its natural armagedon conclusion. And its not helped by those in tv land who desperately want to see another Katrina or worse.

Oh well enough of the rant...MLPS are mostly higher today. Lehman resumes coverage of Atlas Pipeline Partners (APL) at market perform and starts Atlas Holdsings (AHG) at market perform. Not much else seems to be happening and there are no corporate developements. So the falling 10 year rate to near 4.75% is providing a nice tail wind. Crosstex LP is today's biggest winner up 65 cents after being down about as much yesterday. Martin Midstream (MMLP) and Regency Partners (RGNC) are both down about 50 cents apiece but no news moving these issues either. Its just more pre labor day appointment only trading.

Sorry for the late morning first post but i was on the beach early as clouds and showers could be moving in this afternoon...i wanted to make the best of it.

Tuesday, August 29, 2006

Good Tuesday morning.

Last days of August and the first few of September are boring as can be. No corporate news to speak of this morning andno upgrades or downgrades today. External factors are not doing much as Tropical Storm Ernesto is no longer any threat to the oil and gas folks in the Gulf of Mexico so we open on the flat side...the AMZ MLP index is down just a few pennies. Movements are mainly plus 20 cents to minus 20 cents for the most part on very low volume.

Below is a chart of what I think could be the next breakout. Energy Transfer Equity (ETE) looks like its emerging from a base between 25-27...and i think this could run to 30 on the next leg up.

Crosstex Energy's weekly chart implies a little more work to do in this corrective phase...i would scoop up shares with both hands if we get any drop between 85-88. This one has been difficult to trade in and out of lately. I have buy orders in 4 points below the previous days close which i put in every morning...and then keep my fingers crossed for some volitility!

Also please note last nights late blog post which points to an insider buy at Crosstex LP (XTEX).

Monday, August 28, 2006

Insider purchase at Crosstex Energy LP (XTEX)...2500 shares worth. Filing came out after the close.

Good Monday Morning! We have big downside action in Natural Gas this morning as evidenced on the chart above with the gap down in overnight trading. Traders reacting to the map below as Ernesto is no longer a threat to the Gulf of Mexico but is a threat to the last days of my vacation...although i'm not convinced yet as some models take the storm east of Florida and offshore. Of course i have a vested interest into what outcome i want!

MLP drivers this morning include a higher buyout price for Kinder Morgan (KMI) as the price is now 107 dollars a share versus the original management led 100 dollar price. When the deal was first announced months ago it gave a one day pop to most MLPS. With the raised bid it could bring another push to the upside today on the view that pipelines are undervalued. No upgrades or downgrades so far this morning and no other news headlines.

Take a look at this thread on the Crosstex LP (XTEX) message board. Apparently someone has come to the conclusion that Crosstex LP is the next Enron. You will note my post in response. Short it...and if you believe in your convictions short heavily. And if you believe his reasoning you could apply it to just about every MLP out there. My point here is i'm not interested in coverting someone who has a pre-determined agenda. If you believe in your agenda...short the stock. I believe in my agenda therefore i'm long.

Heading for the gym for my pre-open workout...will post after the open after I digest the action.

Friday, August 25, 2006

Afternoon gains in MLPS are holding up as we look foward to a weekend! Not much happening but there appears to be a touch more volume today in some of these issues. Looks like the Carribbean system is just on the verge of tropical storm strength. If it survives the track across the eastern Carribbean it could become something more impressive early next week as it heads westward.

Otherwise its another week on the Carolina beaches for me...things will get back to normal right after Labor Day.
Good Friday morning.
We have the energy markets focusing on a tropical depression in the Eastern Carribbean which may or may not become a tropical storm which may or may not become a hurricane, which may or may not head into the Gulf Of Mexico next week, which may or may not threaten the oil and nat gas supply. So those markets are of course sharply higher. National Hurricane Center link here for all the latest info. Tropical Storm Debby is an Atlantic fish storm and of no consequence.
Meanwhile Valero LP has two coverage starts, one from Kaufman and one from Key Banc...both at buy and thats good enough for 60 cents of upside. MLPS are higher as a group following energy and a stable 10 year at 4.80. Holly Partners is the biggest winner so far up 80 cents but its been under pressure all week long.
Beach calling with big waves today and 80 degree water...see ya'll this afternoon.

Thursday, August 24, 2006

Hello there! Oh its so beautiful here in the Carolinas and have been on the beach all day so i just stepped in the watch the close. An absolutely boring day here...the AMZ MLP index is up all of 10 cents. We had an upgrade from RBC Capital Markets on Valero LP which is up 30 cents as we type. Also starting Valero Holdings at an outperform. Otherwise not much is happening here as the pre labor day appointment only trading has taken hold. I will be watching the last 30 minutes just in case something moves.

81 degree ocean water and sunshine is hard to fight!

Wednesday, August 23, 2006

Close today was weak among MLPS...most closed lower and the index was down 1 and change. Not much news today. Hiland LP after the close announced some project expansions. No other corporate developements that i could find.

The ocean was unbelievable today...ocean temps around 80 or so. Not much wave action. Vacation continues!
Good Morning!
Back from a nice morning beach walk and we find 2 notes on coverage. Valero LP is reinstated by Lehman Brothers at outperform and Valero Holdings is started by Lehman Brothers at equal weight.
4.81% on the 10 year and housing numbers will be the driver at 10 am. Still looks to me like MLPS continue to have the wind at their back and are in rally mode. The best performers have been the ones that have lifted distributions or are percieved to be lifting distributions in the next quarter.
So we wait for the open...i wait for 10 am and the 80 degree ocean!

Tuesday, August 22, 2006

Sorry for the lack of posts today but the ocean water temperature climbed from 68 to 80 degrees today so i spent the whole day in the ocean with occasional market checks. The day was pretty much headline free and MLPS closed higher for the most part as Boardwalk Partners led the way up 87 cents. Just a few losers and nothing newsworthy.

Wednesday will bring another warm ocean day but i promise a premarket post and maybe one or 2 others!

Monday, August 21, 2006

Most MLPS are higher today with Enbridge Energy Partners, Markwest Energy, Buckeye Partners and Energy Transfer Partners leading the way and up fractionally. Most of the downside MLPS are off just a few pennies or 20 cents at most in the case of Duke Midstream (DPM)

No news but energy remains higher.
Good Morning!

Well its Monday morning on the beaches of the Outer Banks of North Carolina! Weather today is a bit cloudy to start but showers have moved to the south and maybe some sun on the horizon for later...ocean temps in the upper 70s! Fabulous.
So a morning blog check in here with no news and no upgrades or downgrades. Iran is rattling nuclear bombs so oil is rallying this morning and stock futures are lower. The tropics remain quiet however long that lasts.
Biking on the agenda this morning at i'll post an opening roundup before heading out.

Friday, August 18, 2006

Firm trading late in the day here with the MLP index up 1.22 and most MLPS higher. Valero LP sold off from its open at 50.98 and traded down to 50.20 but its now back to 50.70 so a good move there. Also higher are Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP) Calumet Products Partners (CLMT) and well as Teppco (TPP) which had some news from the FTC which is not liking what its doing with Enterprise Products Partners (EPD) so its selling off some assets to make them happy.

Holly Partners which was up earlier is down 60 cents and Crosstex Energy LP (XTEX) is down 30 cents as is Regency Partners(RGNC) although Regency has been all over the place today.

Weekend is almost here and its North Carolina for 2 weeks of beaches and rest! I will be posting from there as i check in from time to time.
Somebody was willing to pay up nearly $1 on Valero LP shares. A 10,000+ share block crossed at the open at 50.98. Probably an insider buy. If it is i'll see the filing later today or Monday. If its something else...well we'll find out eventually. Stock is off its high and we've seen several nice up openings recently disappear by afternoon.

The AMZ MLP index is strong this morning up 83 cents right now probably being boosted by the VLI price change. Holly Partners is also up 50 cents here. Otherwise most MLPS are flat to slightly higher after the open.

Good Morning

Friday morning and its a Friday in August so i'm expecting that what ever is going to happen will happen before 11am and then its done for the day; particularly since we have no news this morning on the corporate front and no upgrades or downgrades so barring some sort of news event, it should be quiet.

Two charts above for your enjoyment. Boardwalk Partners has been quite the performer since its IPO as it has climbed nearly 50%. Trying to find an entry point has been difficult but so far no sign of a top.

Meanwhile among the sadly performing GP's, Energy Transfer Equity has been a standout as it is actually trading above its offering price. On the chart it looks like we have been building a base for another up leg that could develope soon..perhaps in September. All in my never to be humble opinion of course. But if you are thinking about buying a GP vs a LP...i think this one is the best of the bunch right now.

Thursday, August 17, 2006

An August afternoon on Wall Street with MLPS mixed...the 10 year rate lower and oil and nat gas are going down. No news, no upgrades and no downgrades...nothing!

Volumes are un-inspiring with moves between 40 cents up and 40 cents down. Crosstex Energy LP (XTEX) is the biggest winner..up 53 cents today...Copano is down 39 cents as our biggest loser. Most of the MLPS are within a few cents of the flat line.
Good Morning!

Missed a good day among MLPS to enjoy a bad day at the race track...but a bad day at the race track beats a good day of work hands down. We have a quiet news morning with nothing going on in corporate news, no upgrades or downgrades. The ten year is down to 4.85% which is great for us as it makes bonds and notes less competitive with respect to yield. So with not much happening we'll see where the open takes us.

Next week begins 2 weeks for me in North Carolina with lots of fun and sun on the outer banks. So while i'm on the beach i will be posting but at perhaps a slower pace. Hopefully no hurricanes while i'm there.

Wednesday, August 16, 2006

Good morning! I know its early but there will be no blogging today. Heading for Saratoga for a day of racing!!! Wish me luck. I will post tonight when i return.

Tuesday, August 15, 2006

Finishing up lunch on a strong up days...Most MLPS are higher with some of yesterday's biggest losers like Natural Resource Partners(NRP) and Penn Virginia Resources (PVR) up the most..NRP is up 1 and change. Sunoco Logistics is also up nearly 1. Lots of fractional plusses on the board as well. Just a few losers...Kinder Morgan is the biggest but its only down 19 cents...and there are only one or 2 others.
Good Tuesday morning! And a good tuesday morning it will be as the benign PPI number has sent stock futures soaring and 10 year rates plunging. So MLPS should rally today. This morning we have a couple of moves by Deutche Banc as they upgrade Enterprise (EPE) GP from sell to hold...and they upgrade Amerigas (APU) to a buy from a hold. AG Edwards also starts coverage on Williams Partners with a buy and sets a target of 40 dollars.

No other news to speak of..Last night Regency Partners (RGNC) reported earnings and the numbers look OK as i read them but we'll see what the market decides. No other news this morning to speak of so we wait for the open. I'll be looking to see if Crosstex (XTXI) sells off after the open. If we get a spike down like yesterday i will be there waiting.

Monday, August 14, 2006

Losses in MLPS have been extended some this afternoon. National Resource Partners is down nearly 2 dollars on no news. Penn Virginia Resources is down nearly 1 point. Crosstex Energy (XTXI) is down 3 points as the Yorktown Group sold more shares today...looks like 750,000 shares are being sold out...some were done Friday and here is a second filing. Lots of MLPS down fractionally on no news. A few winners but they are well off the days highs as is the stock market.

The never ending decision of whether you should be in Crosstex LP or Crosstex Energy (XTEX vs XTXI). Note the two charts above. Up until now its been been far better to be in XTXI vs XTEX. But...and this is for traders only...there are periods where XTEX outperforms XTXI and i believe we are in one of those periods. For longer term holders of XTXI who wish to add to positions or perhaps those of you who wish to go might look at the 21 week moving average as a support level and a good entry point (around 83 or so.) Patience is required but it could get there in a hurry and bounce back rather quickly. But we may be at the beginning of a consolidation period for XTXI to digest the great gains of the past several months. Meanwhile XTEX might have some upside here to the lower 40s.

Otherwise MLPS are following all energy stocks lower today. The MLP index opened up 1 but is now down a fraction. Oneok LP was up 1 and change for awhile this morning and Regency Partners is up a fraction...most MLPS down fractionally. National Resource Partners was reiterated Market Perform by RBC Capital Markets and the price target was raised to 60 bucks from 58 dollars...but the stock is down 1 on that piece of news.

Looks like the Energy Market will be the influence today on MLPS..which may mean pressure all day long.
Good Morning!

So this morning we have plunging oil prices...down a dollar and change...plunging natural gas prices...down 40 cents....a slightly higher 10 year yield and strong stock futures. Thats the broad look. The corporate view this morning has earnings from Alliance Holdings (AHGP) along with a back dated distribution announcement.

No upgrades or downgrades this morning so we await the open.

Friday, August 11, 2006

MLPS doing okay today heading into the close. The MLP INDEX is up 1 on the day and we have a host of fractional winners. Even a few of the early losers like Holly Parnters (HEP) and Regency Partners (RGNC) reversed and turned higher. RGNC has earnings out early next week so shorts may be covering here in the last 30 minutes. Hiland is down 40 cents and Copano is down 20 cents...a few other losers but nothing significant.
MLPS are firm while the overall market is lower. The MLP index is up 1 point and has gotten back a little less than half of yesterday's loss. LIN Energy(LINE), Oneok LP(OKS) and Crosstex LP (XTEX)are among the biggest gainers..each up 50 cents or more. Not many losers, Copano Energy and Buckeye Partners among those but losses are 20 cents or less.

Unless the whole market falls apart i'm looking for a firm tone in these to continue.
Good Friday morning!

At least its calmer this morning then it was yesteday so we kick things off with flat futures and a higher 10 year yield of 4.95%. Crude is higher this morning along with nat gas and gasoline. No corporate releases so far but we do have coverage reiterations as RBC Capital Markets raises its target on Global Partners (GLP) and on Markwest Energy (MWE). The Global Partners increase comes on the heels of yesterday's good earnings.

Note yesterday my advice on Crosstex Energy (XTXI). I just missed having my buy order filled in the low 88's and of course the stock did a six point turnaround and finished up 4 to 94 on the day. I did nail some Crosstex LP (XTEX) near the lows at 35.40 before the 1 point rebound in the afternoon. Hopefully more upside today. I am still waiting for Copano(CPNO) to respond to its great earnings with a solid run on volume to the mid 50S.

30 minutes to the open!!!

Thursday, August 10, 2006

It never ceases to facinate me how this stuff trades. Take Crosstex Energy LP for instance...the stock started droppping yesterday and it continued this morning until....RBC Capital Markets reiterated an underperform rating on the stock...and as soon as that hit the wires just after noontime...the bids firmed and the buyers starting hitting the ask. Now logic would dictate the exact opposite. And Crosstex (XTX) which has been in freefall from 100 also turned and is now higher for the first time in 4 days. Go figure.

Most MLPS are lower at the lunch hour with the MLP index down 1.27. Most MLPS are down fractions but no one is down more than 50 cents. And there are a few winners today with Sunoco Logistics up 75 cents but there is no news there.

Good Morning!

And we begin this morning with the foiled terror plot in Britain to fly planes across the Atlantic to the US and blow them up. Link above to pajamas media which has full coverage. I would send you to the mainstream press but they are too busy with their fauxtographers. Pressure on the markets is evident as futures are lower but 10 year yields are also lower this morning. The energy complex is not doing very much. Crude is a little lower today.

This morning we have no corporate news and no upgrades or downgrades.

Crosstex earnings and conference call were met with selling yesterday as XTXI was down 4 and XTEX was down 1 and change. It looks like a case of buy the rumour sell the news as XTXI has run to 100 so it looks like the chart is correcting here. If you are interested in establishing new positions in XTXI i would recommend laddering in. I think you could pull back another 3 or 4 points to 86-88 level and possibly as low as 82-84. And this stock likes to move quickly and bounce quickly so its for nimble traders only. There was nothing in the conference call that suggested that the company is not on track to meet its dividend projections for next year. 10 year yield just opened down to 4.91%. Looking for some flight to quality today.

Wednesday, August 09, 2006

Even though the AMZ MLP index is down nearly 1 point it seems to be weighed down by Kinder Morgan Partners as it is offering another 5 millions shares. Now usually when they do an offering they issue a press release. Instead we have this Reuters story that "they are considering the offering" whatever that means. They did file this with the SEC and it is subject to amendment as the note near the top states.

Meanwhile Crosstex LP is now down nearly 1 and Crosstex (XTXI) is down 2 and change. The conference call is coming at 12 noon eastern time to discuss this morning's earnings release so some are taking profits ahead of the least that's my guess. Also out with earnings numbers today...Hiland Energy (HLND) and the market seems to like them as the stock is up a fraction. Here is the full text of the Transmontaigne earnings press release as we only had headlines this morning.

Energy stocks are stronger with the bullish oil numbers from the DOE. Heading into lunchtime. Took new long trading positions today in Crosstex LP and attempting to buy XTXI on any intraday plunge. Pulled off a nice trade yesteday.
Wednesday morning the day after the fed paused and stock futures are higher and so is the energy complex so we have that to start with today. First off some business from last night as we have earnings from Martin Midstream Partners (MMLP) which were higher from a year ago.

This morning we have earnings from Transmontaigne ..headlines have just hit..21 cents versus 13 cents...more and links to follow. Crosstex Energy (XTXI),(XTEX) are due out this morning at any moment and a conference call to follow at noon. Okay here are the Crosstex Earnings as they have just crossed. They have a one time mark to market charge for financial instruments..i assume thats doublespeak for hedges. Coverage of distribution was 1.02 times which was in line with guidance. Sometimes these things are hard to figure out.

Its an early post so i'll be blogging again when the news hits...also upgrades and downgrades; none so far but again its only 7am.
Wednesday morning the day after the fed paused and stock futures are higher and so is the energy complex so we have that to start with today. First off some business from last night as we have earnings from Martin Midstream Partners (MMLP) which were higher from a year ago.

This morning we have earnings from Transmontaigne ..headlines have just hit..21 cents versus 13 cents...more and links to follow. Crosstex Energy (XTXI),(XTEX) are due out this morning at any moment and a conference call to follow at noon.

Its an early post so i'll be blogging again when the news hits...also upgrades and downgrades; none so far but again its only 7am

Tuesday, August 08, 2006

Lunchtime and fed waiting...MLPS mostly higher with Copano Energy, Teppco, Holly Partners and a few others up major fractions. I would have thought Copano would be up 2 or 3 points on its earnings and outlook but sometimes it takes a day or 2 for the market to digest the stuff. Oneok LP and Duke Midstream are down fractions today with no news driving them.

Tortoise Energy is offering some shares and the market is offering them now a dollar lower than yesterday.

Waiting for the fed...its sideways until then.
Live blogging the COPANO ENERGY (CPNO) conference call....will only focus on foward looking statements and the question and answer session.

Coverage of distribution was 2.11 X. Pipeline progess continues and new projects are nearing completion. The company says it expects a strong 3rd quarter and a strong year over year performance.

Producer activity in the mid continent segment remains strong. Texas gulf coast segments of natural gas volumes were slightly higher from 2005. Drilling remains healthy and continues. New wells are being drilled and that should add to volumes before year end. Overall the company is firing on all cylanders!

Not much coming out of the q&a session so far

Good Morning.

You have to be in awe of Copano Energy (CPNO) earnings as they are firing on all cylanders and blew away estimates by 30 cents. Conference call this morning at 9am eastern time. I will attempt to blog it live as we look for the foward looking statements. The charts above show the stock has been a spectacular performer and the technicals look good for this rally to continue....imho of course.

Its fed day so everything waits for 2:15pm. My guess is they pause with a statement that says they are ready to tighten if inflation is a problem. I think the 10 year has peaked at 5.25 so MLPS have the wind at their backs. Stock futures a lilttle higher this morning with the crude complex a little lower.

We having earnings this morning just out on Williams Companies and those numbers look good.

Buckeye Partners recent IPO of its GP has been a disaster so far as the stock price was priced 2 dollars below its range of 19-21....opened below its pricing of 17 and was down nearly 1 yesterday to 15.30. I am not sure what is going on here but i am avoiding this one until the dust settles.

Monday, August 07, 2006

After hours news after a mixed day and a flat close on the MLP index...which by the way is now posted on the side board with a chart and yahoo link....Copano Energy (CPNO) announced spectacular earnings which crushed estimates by 30 cents! Also the coverage ratio on the recent payout is over 2 times which is fabulous!
Note the action today of Oneok LP after the AG Edwards downgrade. The stock traded down over 1 to near 52 and then came all the way back to close up on the the market is telling you that this stock has much higher to go longer term.
Lunchtime on Wall Street and MLPS seem to be following the energy complex higher. The MLP index is up 30 cents and sits over the 260 level. Fractional plusses in Atlas Pipeline Partners which is today's biggest winner up 80 cents. Energy Transfer Partners, Penn Virginia Resources, and Crosstex Energy are all up 50 cents or more. On the losing side Buckeye Partners, Valero LP, Oneok LP on a downgrade and Sunoco Logistics....all are down about 50 cents apiece.
Good Monday Morning!
Of course the big news this morning is the shutdown of the BP pipeline in Alaska which takes 400,000 barrels a day off line and that is sending crude up a buck and a half. Also Iran is threatening to take oil off the market if the UN doesn't let it build a neuclear bomb to blow up the world with (the UN is not sure what to do here!). So the pressure on the S&P which is down 6 means a lower stock market open. The 10 year yield this morning is steady at 4.91%
Corporate developements this morning..we have a Markwest Energy (MWE) conference call Tuesday on their earnings which were very good. Copano Energy (CPNO) has earnings due out after the close today with a conference call tomorrow morning. Nothing else happening on the corporate front.
AG Edwards is downgrading Oneok Partners (OKE) this morning from buy to hold. The stock had a nice run recently. It might be an opportunity to pick some up here at lower prices...I would think a pullback to 51-52 would be a good entry point. Laddering in is probably the best way.
Hurricane activity is non-existent with the only possibility being distrubed weather way out in the Atlantic near the Cape Verde Island which could develope into something. Natural Gas is down 30 cents as the threat from Tropical Storm Chris has disappeared.
So we have an interesting day shaping up with all these cross-currents. Open to come in and hour or so!

Saturday, August 05, 2006

Good Saturday evening! A rare weekend post...i had some time on my hands so i thought i blog about a few things.

First off a very informative post by "Factoids" on the ETP message boards about the relative performance of MLPS in q2. And it bears out that the distribution growers far out performed the weaker or non growers. And there is no reason to believe this trend won't continue.

From the Atlas Pipeline Partners message board we have this post from "Athenathetrader" who opines that the fed may not be done and that MLPS may have gotten ahead of themselves. A worthy question as we approach the fed meeting plus all the global problems. One thing i've noticed by watching the tape is that the market's perception now would be that any further rate hikes will spell recession down the road and that could cause a selloff in the overall market. Certainly a possibility. But i will venture to say that the 10 year rate behavior since the beginning of July leads me to think that long rates may have peaked. And if a recession does loom from another fed tightening it will drive long rates lower...perhaps back to 4.75 or even 4.50%. I would argue that this would cause the entire group to continue to rally...counter to the overall market trend. The AMZ MLP index has risen 15 points in the last 6 weeks and i think we will challenge the old high between 270 and 275 in the next 2 months. To me we have been in a bear market in MLPS since last August and it may have ended in late June whent the 10 year peaked at 5.25%. If i am right you should be invested in the MLPS that have raised distributions the most and avoid those that have been flat.

I am also a believer in watching market reactions to events to determine whether something is a buying opportunity or not. Crosstex Energy (XTXI) was downgraded to neutral friday by Goldman Sachs. I am guessing that once it hit 100 Goldman decided it was time to take some money off the table. I did not see anything saying what their reason was for the i'm thinking is simply based on price and the recent price appreciation. Notice the stock opened flat...dropped 4 points intraday and rallied back to a 1 point loss. I'll wait a day or two to confirm this but the stock action tells me that longer term...Goldman is going to be wrong.

Monday after the close we have earnings from Copano Energy (CPNO) and the way that stock is behaving the numbers should be impressive. They just raised their distribution 7 cents to 67 cents for the recent quarter or 2.68 annual. Earnings could propel this stock price even higher...mid 50s not out of the question short term.

Weather in NYC much better as we've had a beautiful Saturday of sunshine and low humidity. No tropical storms around as Chris has fallen apart. But the hurricane season is still very young. Enjoy the rest of your weekend and please feel free to post comments on anything i've written. I've noticed that the Oneok LP board is not working. Cactus Jack (CJ) please feel free to blog your usual weekend news posts and ideas in the comments section or email them to me and i will gladly post them on the blog to be open for all general reactions and opinions.

Friday, August 04, 2006

Just an added note here...Crosstex (XTXI) was downgraded to neutral by Goldman.
Well they loved the employment numbers or lack there of and that is sending the 10 year rate down to 4.89% and MLPS are higher. Teekay is the big winner today up a bit over 1. Big fractional plusses in the earnings winners like Markwest Energy (MWE) and Oneok LP (OKS) and Teppco (TPP). The AMZ MLP index is knocking on the door of 260 up 1 and a fraction.

Losers today are few and mostly the ones with ex-distribution overhangs...just small losses in a few issues that could be made up if the rally continues. Buckeye Holdings (BGH) opens under the ipo price and is trading under 17 dollars right now. But that is not impacting Buckeye Partners which is up a fraction.

Thursday, August 03, 2006

Some after hours news to report. First on the earnings front...very impressive numbers i think from Markwest Energy Partners (MWE) as they double income and cash flow...1.6 times coverage and they said they plan 10% annual boost to the distribution. Also Atlas America (ATLS) reports record earnings.

In IPO news not exactly a ringing endorsement for Buckeye Holdings as they priced the IPO 2 dollars under the expected range of 19-21...priced at 17. Not sure what the impact will be on Buckeye Partners (BPL). It has been the trend to rally the MLP once the GP hits the market..that has been the case with Atlas Pipeline Partners and Valero LP as they have moved nicely off their lows...but the whole group has rallied so that could be coincidental. We'll see how this plays tomorrow. We have the employment numbers. If the 10 year continues its rally and yields continue to fall..MLPS should have continued support.
Solid gains across the board and except for some of the ex-distribution stocks the whole MLP group is sharply higher.Oneok LP leads the way up 1.83 on excellent earnings and good guidance. Williams Partners (WPZ) also up 1.75 on similar news. Boardwalk Partners and Hiland Partners are also up nearly 1. Fractional plusses elsewhere including Martin Midstream, Magellan Midstream, Plains All American, Penn Virginia and a host of others.

The losers are few a far between and down only pennies...mostly the ones that went Ex-distribution today like Valero LP which is actually higher by a nickle...Atlas Pipeline Partners which is down a few pennies...and Regency Partners which is down a few cents as well.
Got some breaking earnings news this morning. Williams Partners(WPZ) announces earnings gains and raises guidance. Natural Resource Partners(NRP) announces flat earnings and re-affirms guidance. Pacific Energy Partners(PPX) announces earnings but remember they are merging with Plains All American. Nothing in the upgrade downgrade department. The open approaches with stock futures lower and the energy complex lower as well. 10 year at 4.96% and flat on the morning.

Good Thursday Morning!!!

Okay its back to blogging normality this morning and we'll review some of last night late developements. Oneok LP reports good earnings and re-affirms guidance. This MLP is optimistic for the future which is a good thing. And this from Teppco from Tuesday night where it issued earnings and announced a joint venture with Enterprise Products Partners. Market liked the news yesterday and sent the stock higher.

This morning tropical storm Chris has weakened overnight thanks to northwesterly shear which in english are strong winds from the northwest at high levels of the atmosphere which resulting in the cloud tops of the developing thunderstorms getting ripped away...sort of like blowing on a mountain of whip cream. If this continues Chris could disappear. If you look closely at this loop while it looks like the bright white clouds are moving south...there is a low level swirl detatched from those clouds north of Puerto Rico and its moving west. Bottom line is this could take the buying pressure off Nat Gas.

This is also the last day of the extreme heat in the northeast as some relief is coming for Friday and the weekend. And even cooler air could be coming later next week.

No upgrades or downgrades so far this morning. Stock futures are lower before the open. So we wait to see if the 10 year yueld continues to fall which has been pushing MLPS higher for the last couple of weeks. Ex distributions this morning include Atlas Pipeline Partners, Valero LP, Markwest Energy, and Regency Partners among others

Wednesday, August 02, 2006

Back from Saratoga where i drove up for some racing only to find them cancelled due to the extreme heat. Sad but true. I'm playing catch up right now from the last 2 days and should be back up at full strength tomorrow morning.