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Friday, October 30, 2009

Btw forgot to mention this is the last day of the year for mutual funds so there could be some distortions that could play into the game later today.

I went to a 4 month chart view here of the dow industrials and mlps and you can see very clearly the scope of this uptrend and what has happened every time we have come down to the 34 day moving average. Now i am going to put out a small warning flag here. It may or may not mean anything but so far the trend is holding. We need to decisively take out 10,200 on the dow and keep on going. So the real test will come on this rally that began yesterday. The trade remains in tact as far as buying these corrections. On the positive side (and you can see this better on the S&P 500 chart)

There was a spike in volume on Wednesday when the market fell. Yesterday we got it all back and more which suggests Wednesday was signficant technical reversal day. Watch that level on the downside down the road. Looking for some followthrough today or at least nothing worse than sideways.

Okay MLPS this morning seeing some upgrades as Citigroup upgrades Williams (WPZ) to buy from hold. Steifel Nicholas starts both Nustar (NS) and Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) at a buy. No news developlements. Stock futures are softer ahead of the open as is the energy complex except for nat gas which is higher.

Thursday, October 29, 2009

Just about a 6 point gain on the mlp index with the dow rocketing higher up 180 as we head into the last hour.
More than half way back from yesterday's losses as mlps extend their gains and the index is now up over 5 points. Everything is up pretty much with quite a few mlps with strong fractional to 1 point plus gains. Market rally is very strong so the verdict so far is this was another trip down to the trendline that has now been reversed. Next wall will be what happens when we get back to 10,100 on the dow and 265 on the mlp index.
The rally has a bit of steam as far as MLPs go and we are up well over 3 points on the day so far. K-Sea is down another 2 and change and trades with an 11 handle. A 50% haircut in 2 days. Other than that almost the entire group is showing gains. Enterprise (EPD) on the Citigroup upgrade is up nearly 1 and so is Alliance Resource (ARLP) on RBC listing them as outperform. Williams (WMZ) is up 1.49 on very good earnings and is the days biggest winner.

The dow is up around 70 points and holding. There have been a few attempts to get it up over 100 but nothing successful so far. I would like to see some mommentum build between 11am and noon so i can feel better about what they might try to do after 1pm.

Nat gas numbers are out and nat gas has turned higher as energy moves higher with stocks and the lower dollar.
Citigroup also sees something in K-Sea it doesn't like so they are going from hold to sell. Dear Citigroup, they already have!
Initial reaction to GDP is positive with a better than expected number. S&P up 9 points after the number from up 3 before. We'll see.
Citigroup just putting its 2 cents in by upgrading Enterprise Products Partners (EPD) to buy from hold. And that upgrade is worth 2 cents of upside in the premarket! GDP just momemts away.

After yesterday's 9 point MLP debacle, which btw was only a bit more than the 8 point debacle in K Sea Transportation Partners (KSP) we are already sitting today on the chart at a place where rallies have ensued taking us to higher highs going back at least 6 months on this chart. So until proven otherwise from a trading standpoint you have to look around in here after this rapid 6% correction in mlps and add to positions. However is it different this time? Oh if we only knew the answer to that one. The 55 day moving average sits at 250 and some small change and if we go lower at the open we could be right there. A trip to the 89 day moving average took place at the end of June and thats at 244. Another day like yesterday and we're right there. We can probably get that low and still be well within the contruct of the uptrend.

How is all of this going to break? Well in true bull markets it will get resolved with higher highs. We need however to ask ourselves after a move from 176 to 267 on the mlp index in 10 months is a meaningful correction finally at hand? Wouldnt be a big surprise. We noted a few weeks ago that 270 was going to be an extremely difficult wall to get through. Still it is amazing that sentiment in the overall tape got so bearish so fast. And that bearish sentiment is a very good thing to fuel another leg up. As always though they never make these decisions easy.

Okay this morning we begin the ex distribution parade with Holly Partners (HEP) and Markwest (MWE) leading the way. Holly Partners puts up earnings this morning which look pretty good. Williams Partners (WPZ) also announces earnings and announes an improved cash flow outlook going into next year. The news overall from most mlps appears to be brighter than where we were a year ago.

We have some anal-ist moves. Wells Fargo appears to see something in K-Sea's (KSP) distribution cut and outlook yesterday that...well to be perfectly frank..just didnt sound quite right. And so...brilliant minds that they are we see a downgrade from Outperform to Underperform. What would we do withoout these guys? And this morning RBC Capital Markets starts Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP) at Outperform. We can only hoe they are right since we are long this one! I decided to do highlight them in color! Lack of sleep does this to the mind.

Other broader market drivers this morning we have stronger stock futures ahead of data. Energy is a little higher except for nat gas. European markets are a little softer. The dollar is a little softer also ahead of and silver are higher.

Okay do note that i have been adding MLP web sites to the blog roll a few at a time. Just scroll down to MLP BLOGS AND MORE and i am listing them alphabetically. My goal is to have them all on here for you so you can source them all from one page which would make life just a little bit easier.

Wednesday, October 28, 2009

Closing in on an 8 point loss with EV Partners (EVEP) the biggest loser outside of K-Sea which by now we all know about. EV is down 2 on the oppenheimer downgrade. This is biggest one day drop we've seen since the great demise. Still only back to the trendlines and if we look at the weekly charts we are coming into a very important zone for most of the indexes. The moving averages have only now started to turn and attempting to cross over into a positive slope for the longer term. We are at a critical juncture here.
A 6 point loss on the MLP index and we are at support.

K-Sea Transportation (KSP) is down 8 points on the distribution cut and hints of more trouble down the road. Teekay Shipping (TOO) is down in sympthay by 1.50. Oneok LP (OKS) E V Partners (EVEP) and Alliance (ARLP) are down 1 plus each. Down nearly 1 include Sunoco Logistics (SXL) Energy Transfer Equity (ETE) and Plains All American (PAA).

Nustar (NS) is the big winner today up 25 cents as it continues to ride the upbeat company comments yesterday with earnings. If mlps and the market start another upleg this one could lead the way.

1050 on the S&P getting all the attention so watch it carefully. Perhaps everyone is selling ahead of the gdp number tomorrow and unless its really bad...every may have sold ahead of it and the market will rally. That has been the pattern these last several months. So we watch carefully.

All the averages are at their 34 day moving average support line. The S&P is down near the 55 day moving average. They have held before. Sentiment is getting bearish very quickly in here and that usually is a good thing.
A 7 dollar hit on K Sea Transportation along with a 1 point plus loser in TC Pipelines (TCLP) and strong fractional loses in Plains All American (PAA) and Sunoco Logistics (SXL) and you have a 3 point plus loss in the mlp index which takes us right down to that 34 day moving average which has been the wall that turns back sell-offs lately.

There are some fractional winners in Nustar (NS) and Kinder Morgan (KMP) among others. So a few distortions in here to factor through.

K SEA is down 5.25 pre open. Not going to be pretty here. That uptrend line will probably get shattered today.
Pre open activity in K SEA Transportation indicates that some are not happy with the earnings. The stock is down nearly 4 dollars. Perhaps its the little line that says the company my not be in compliance with financial convenants in Q-2 or Q3. AND it could be the distribution cut!!! Here is the relevant part of the press release.

The Company also announced that its distribution to unitholders for the first fiscal quarter will be $0.45 per unit, or $1.80 per unit annualized, compared to the previous distribution of $0.77 per unit. This distribution will be payable on November 16, 2009 to unitholders of record on November 9, 2009. At this distribution rate, the Company anticipates its distributable cash flow for fiscal 2010 will exceed 1.00 times the amount needed to cover the distributions to be paid to unitholders.

The Company believes it currently is in full compliance with all provisions of its debt and lease agreements. While the Company expects to continue to pay when due all future obligations in respect of its debt and leases, the Company expects that it will not be in compliance with its financial covenants in certain of these agreements as of the end of its second or third fiscal quarter of fiscal 2010, and in anticipation of these circumstances, will be seeking to amend these covenants.

This is what happens when business is not so good.

Whoops...all that and i forgot that Oppenheimer cuts EV Partners to perform from outperform. The stock has outperformed for a number of months and has more than doubled off its 52 week low.

Okay this morning its a ton of news to chew through which leads me to 2 things. One is you might have noticed yesterday that where possible and timely i will link to the company web site. It makes more sense and its something i should have been doing all along. Also within the next week i am going to sit down and create a sidebar with nothing but links to the companies themselves. This way you have everything on one page. Some times it takes a bout of food poisoning of your entire house (including the dog) to wake you up to these things. Stay tuned!

Okay lets start with Alliance Resource Partners which puts up earnings and a distribution increase. The company says it sees the rest of 2009 at the low end of estimates which can't be a surprise to anyone. Also we have Alliance Resource Holdings (AHGP) which raises the payout. BTW Alliance has a positive view of 2010.

Now for the Dan Duncan show, Duncan Partners (DEP) reports earnings and all the numbers are headed in the right direction. Lower net is what we see at Enterprise Product Partners (EPD) as it has now swallowed up Teppco. K-Sea Transportation puts up earnings numbers this morning with a conference call to follow.

Now some leftover headlines from last night DCP Midstream announces its distirbution. The company web site investor page has not been updated in months. Williams Partners announces its distribution. In some non earnings news Plains All American (PAA) announces a hedge update. Martin Midstream announces a 75 cent payout and Regency Partners (RGNC) announces its distribution.

The mlp index will show the correct daily change after finishing a little higher yesterday. We had a bit of a mess with Teppco coming out of the index yesterday but in the end it was a fractional gain for the day. Markets seeing the dollar a little higher this morning which puts stock futures a little lower. Energy is a little lower with nat gas poking its head above the flat line.

Okay i have begun the process of putting company links on the sidebar. Scroll down to where it says MLP BLOGS AND MORE. As these companies issue news i will add the link to the sidebar. It will make life easier.

Finally this morning some opinions to share this morning. I think this post by Althouse on her blog really says it all about what Global Warming and climate change really are. Praise to those who blaspheme against this religion!

Tuesday, October 27, 2009

261.21 was yesterday's close. The quote you may be seeing has to do with Teppco coming out and Enterprise getting an even bigger weighting in the index. So we are 262.40 up 1.20 after trading down to the 260 level so the round number support has held.

Nustar (NS) continues to move methodically higher today as it is now up 85 cents and leads the winners list. E V Partners (EVEP) also is an 80 cent winner today. Sunocol Logistics (SXL) is down 90 cents we continue to see selling on the earnings news and the distribution hike. It was apparently priced in.
Nustar(NS) is beginning to gather some steam after the earnings and conference call. The company appears upbeat and the stock now leads the mlp list as the biggest winner up 65 cents so far today. It usually takes a while for mlps to react to news. I dont know why that is other than the group is not the most widely followed...which is why most of us are here to begin with. By the way im excluding the Hilands as that couple is up 25+% today on the raised takeover bid.

Markets have a firm tone to them so far. Lets see what happens when the 1pm crowd arrives. Support seems to be holding so far.

Not sure what is going on with the mlp index but for whatever reason the quote this morning is up near 270 instead of 260. I think whats happened is with the Teppco removal Enterprise (EPD) has its weighting increased so its been adjusted for that. I like apples to apples comparisons and this throws everything off. Thats why the chart looks like it does above. 260.52 is the last quote which is a little lower from yesterday's close.

The 2 Hilands are the big winners up 25% on the increased takeover offer by Harold Hamm. Markwest (MWE) is down 80 cents. No news that i can see.
Nustar announces earnings which topped forecasts, a distribution increase, and what appears to be a brighter outlook. Conference call at a 11am.

Pennsylvania Virgina Resources (PVR) announces its distribution which is unchanged from the previous quarter. No press release yet but i did find this Bloomberg interview from last week. It has some good info on outlook and other thoughts from the CEO of Pennsylvania Virginia.

Certainly one can reach that conclusion or at least it should have crossed your mind. I noticed yesterday afternoon that Hiland Holdings (HPGP) was trading at the takeout price of the Harold Hamm offer of 2.40 and Hiland Partners (HLND) also was trading at the takeout price of 7.75. Sure enough after the close comes news that Hamm will be raising his offer to 3.20 and 10.00 respectively. So if any of you took a gamble on this, you are 25% or more richer this morning. Someone asked a week or 2 ago if this was possible and my response was doubtful but "stranger things do happen" so file this under one of those things. I guess the Hamm offer was getting grumbles from the board as asset prices have recovered substantially in mlps. Also Hamm had originally made an even higher offer and he is a majority holder.

We're waiting this morning for earnings from Nustar (NS) which should be out at any momment. Also this morning Wunderlich is downgrading Sunoco Logistics (SXL) to hold from buy. Stock was down nearly 2 yesterday. MLPS close down 4 as the markets reversed sharply from a higher open. Once again we may be in another one of those stairstep corrections until proven otherwise. 9800 on the dow and 255 on the mlp index are where the support lines are. We seem to get there in a hurry and then start another upleg. Until proven otherwise this pattern continues to be the right trade.

Markets look a little higher ahead of the open as we wait for 8:30am data.

Monday, October 26, 2009

Noticed Hiland Holdings (HPGP) was trading near its takeout price of 2.40 most of the afternoon so that got me a little suspicious. And sure enough we have this news item.
9778 and 254.51 are where the support lines are for the dow and mlp index respectively. At the lows of the day on both right now. MLP index down 4.49.
A fairly stunning reversal took place around 11am and mlps went from being up over 2 to now down over 4 points which puts in key reversal land here. All this happened when the dollar suddenly reversed and bolted higher. The dow broke under 9900 and as we mentioned this morning a trip down to 9800 would be a ride to the first support area.

Sunoco Logistics (SXL) is the biggest loser down nearly 2 on earnings and a distribution hike but that one went to all time highs. Most mlps are lower by fractions to a point.
Sunoco Logistics earnings are out and so is another distirbution increase.

Open approaching.
Inergy Holdings (NRGP) has produced another whopping increase in its distribution to 85 cents from 77 cents which is 10 plus % gain quarter to quarter! And Inergy LP (NRGY) boosts up a penny to .675 from .665; 32 quarterly increases in a row. Doesnt get much better than that and both stocks are trading near all time highs.

This is that week every three months that brings about those ex distribution days and mlps tend to stay firm ahead of the ex dates. Boardwalk Partners (BWP) which already told us they are boosting the payout by half a cent announces earnings this morning. I dont see anything unusual in the press release other than high costs and taxes offseting a revenue increase. Reuters reports they missed estimates. Usually there aren't many surprises in these things but we wont know until the open. Capital Products Partners (CPLP) announces its distribution which is unchanged from the previous quarter. And this leftover news item from Friday as Teppco (TPP) approves the Enterprise Products Partners (EPD) takeover. I know a few of you arent thrilled but both mlps are up since the deal was announced.

Wonderlich is upgrade Buckeye Holdings (BGH) to buy from hold. Stock has had a nice run from its lows. In fact it has doubled in price ever since the takeover offer at 14 was pulled of the table at the market bottom. Not much else happening this morning. Stock futures are a little higher. Oil is a little lower. Nat gas is also selling off this morning. The dollar is weaker across the board.

The charts this morning show no real change in this stairstep rally we have been in and a dow pullback to 9800 would bring us back to logical support. No sign of a trend change and no sign of a top yet in mlps.

Friday, October 23, 2009


Keep an eye on the afternoon close as we could at another one of those stair step mini tops that have been occuring every couple of weeks which means a trip down to 9800 on the dow is not impossible. Nothing ominous on the MLP index chart this morning. It all appears pretty routine as big energy stocks sell off. Distirbutions coming probably giving us some firm support underneath.

No big movers today to speak of. The mlp index is down a fraction and most mlps are churning in a rage of plus 4o cents to minus 40 cents.

Lots going on. Will update later.

Thursday, October 22, 2009

Looks like that key reversal is falling under the category of noise with the dow up 120 and the mlp index up over 1 point. The index turned higher earlier this morning after the open was worked through. Some stocks are down as they catch up from yesterday but most have turned.

The Wells Fargo moves havent done too much. Inergy (NRGY,NRGP) and Suburban Propane (SPH) are up about 40 cents on their upgrades. Magellan (MMP) is down a little. EV Partners (EVEP) is off its lows on its downgrade, Markwest (MWE) is down around 60 cents but i has had a much better run from the bottom.

Holly Partners (HEP) is down 1 even though they announce a one cent distribution hike this afternoon. Boardwalk (BWP) raised its payout but the stock is flat.

Looks like they want to run em into the close.
Add Suburban Propane (SPH) and Buckeye Holdings (BGH) to the list up upgrades by Wells Fargo to market outperform from market perform. In addition Suburban Propane announces a distribution increase of three quarters of a penny! Hey an increase is an increase!

Wells Fargo this morning is making moves on some mlps that are worth noting. It is rasing to outperform Inergy Partners (NRGY) and Inergy Holdings (NRGP) which is very interesting because it is doing it at a point where these mlps are sitting at all time highs! So they are either playing catch up or they are gravitating to mlps that have a bright future and more upside. I would like to bet on the latter. It is also upgrading Magellan Midstream Partners (MMP) to outperform.
Two mlps which Wells is downgrading...Markwest (MWE) and E V Partners (EVEP) and they move those to market perform from outperform. Both have done exceptionally well as they make there way back to levels not seen since before last years big collapse. If you could have avoided being in mlps that blew up and have never come back like Constellation Partners (CEP) Crosstex (XTEX) Atlas Pipeline Partners (APL) Hiland (HLND) and a few others and stayed with the big players like Kinder Morgan (KMP) Sunoco Logistics (SXL) and some others...your portfolio right now would be sitting at a place where you would be saying..."waht collapse?"

And that now brings us to yesterday's action which was another one of those key reversals that occurs every few weeks. Note that it is consistent with the pattern which has continued in this sort of stair step move. Key reversals to the downside tend to be right less than of the time making them nothing more than statistical noise. Upside reversals have a much better batting average. So IF it holds to what has been occuring we correct to the moving averages at worst and then start another upleg. No follow through so far this morning on futures.

MLPS continue to move along as they closed off their highs yesterday but still up a point on the index as we near 270. With distribtuions coming i would think mlps would have a lot of support underneath them in here until after they go ex distribution. Remember they are up over 60% total return this year....juicy profits for some people to book as near end approaches.

Ok lets catch up on some news. Kinder Morgan (KMP) put up news last night with earnings and its distribution. The stock is bid up in the pre market. Magellan Midstream (MMP) announces its distribution. No change from last quarter. Buckeye Partners (BPL) is buying up some terminals in the midwest.
So we have alot to chew through this morning. Stock futures are flat this morning after yesterday's late day sell off. Crude oil which broke out above 80 bucks yesterday is pulling back a little this morning. Nat gas numbers are out at 10:30 am. Watch for followthough on the key reversal today as the battle around 10,000 continues. MLPS stil have a good tailwind.

Wednesday, October 21, 2009


Its a 40 million dollar deal but Plains All American (PAA) is buying up assets from Holly Corp (HOC). Nice to see deals popping up lately as it shows the enviornment continues to improve. This came out after the close yesterday. Also Teekay Offshore (TOO) announces its quarterly payout. That's it so far this morning. Kinder Morgan (KMP) starts the earnings parade in the group this afternoon as it posts numbers usually seconds after the close of trading so we will watch for those. No other headlines so far this morning. Nothing on the upgrade downgrade list.

Overall markets look a touch softer this morning but futures are off the lows. Energy is down this morning ahead of oil inventory numbers where the gasoline draw down will gain quite a bit of attention and could be the driver to take crude prices above 80. Or if it shows last week's drawdown was one of those weekly distortions it could be a driver of a big selloff. Numbers at 10:30am. Nat gas is down 3 cents as we have 5.00+ futures which have to be much better for nat gas and coal mlps with commodity exposure.

One last check of headlines and its all quiet. Headlines as they break this morning.

Tuesday, October 20, 2009

Works on I.E. so here they are. Notice on the mlp chart you could make a case for 290 as the top of the last congestion zone. I think that happens if the dow rallies another 1000 points from here.

I dont want to leave one with the view of being bearish in here. I just think that we are coming into a place where we may need to tread a little more carefully. I would put the charts up but i'm having some issues this morning with either blogger or my laptop.

MLPS are higher as the market holds a little lower this morning. The index is up .50. Holly Partners (HEP) did an accretive deal and the stock is up 50 cents and Oneok Partners (OKS) is also higher by about the same amount.

Exterran Partners (EXLP) and Penn Virginia Holdings (PVG) lead the losers list off about the same amount.

We are getting very close to 270 on the MLP index which would give us a 95 point gain on the index for the year or up more than 53% and that's without distributions! I have been mentioning this level for quite awhile as important for a number of reasons. This was the area of the old base that extends back before 2007 and it also was the place of the great breakdown last year which took us down eventually before 150. Its my sense that 270 may prove not only tough to get through but it would be a logical place to turn sideways for awhile. I'm not married to this position completely but it does seem logical. I will be accessing the situation of course for myself and since i hold long positions as well as trade these things , i may be looking to lightening up in here a bit. One thing to point out however is the tail winds are strong and with the end of the fiscal year approaching for mutual funds (next Friday) i think the path of least resistence remains higher.

Not seeing too much in the pre-market this morning. Crosstex (XTEX) is purchasing an NGL processing plant for 42 million. The stock is approaching a 7 handle. Thats pretty much it on the news front. Distribution announcements have been coming at all times of the day so i will be watching. Stock futures will start higher today with terrific earnigns and outlook from Catepillar and Apple. Energy is flat but nat gas is about 8 cents higher as it nears 5 bucks again.

Monday, October 19, 2009

I havent seen the reasons behind the Kinder Morgan (KMP) downgrade but apparently the market doesn't care as this is the thrid downgrade in a week and the stock is up 30 cents and back almost to where it was when the first downgrade came along from Oppenheimer.

The mlp index is up 1.20. The dow is up over 80. Plains All American boosts its payout and the market is boosting its price up 70 cents and is the biggest winner in the group. El Paso (EPD) also lifts the payout on its shares. The stock is up 3 cents.

On the losing side Exterran Partners (EXLP) is down probably in response to the Barrons piece on Exterran Holdings (EXH) which it thinks is overvalued. Sympathy plays sometimes provide opportunities. Regency Partners (RGNC) is down about 60 cents. No news there. Otherwise the mlps on the losing side not giving up too much.
Argus becomes the third brokerage house to downgrade Kinder Morgan (KMP); this one to hold from buy. Stock looking a little lower at the open.

Its not exactly a chart that inspires however apparently the minerals business does as Eagle Rock gets a second offer from Black Stone group to compete with the Natural Gas Partners offer they got about a month ago. Nice to have something someone wants and this could push the stock back to 5 bucks but note its a long way off from the highs in the 20s not too many moons ago.

Monday morning in a week where we should be hearing more about distribution increases from MLPS. A few have announced so far but the bulk have yet to inform us. Otherwise its a firm tape on stock futures this morning. Crude is down a little and nat gas is up a little. Crude btw is nearing 80 bucks in here which is not quite halfway between the 150 high and the 33 low. 94 is the magic number there.

Headlines as they break this morning.

Friday, October 16, 2009

MLPS have turned higher well ahead of the rest of the market. The index is now up fractionally at lunch time being dragged still by Kinder Morgan (KMP) on this mornings Morgan Stanley downgrade. Boardwalk (BWP) Plains All American (PAA) Nustar (NS) are leading the list of winners with fractional gains. Moves so far are between minus ,40 and plus .40 with the list split in half between winners and losers.

It is amazing to me how cautious everyone is in here after this run. That tells me that there is more upside and we are far from a top. MLPS opened lower but not by much. Small moves this morning in most issues. Kinder Morgan (KMP) cut to equal weight by Morgan Stanley while Morgan raises Boardwalk Partners (BWP) to equal weight from underperform. No big impact either way. Boardwalk is up a fraction on the morgan goose. Otherwise we watch. Dow opened down 100 and is now down 80 ish. The mlp index is down about .50 as of this post.

Options expiration today. Looking for buyers to come in at some point today as the battle for 10,000 continues. Nat gas is up this morning. Crude is down a little as 80 dollars is just a stones throw away.

Thursday, October 15, 2009

Energy stocks are running while the market hovers around that 10k level. If i had to bet, i would think strength will come in after 2pm. The mlp index is higher up .25 being dragged a bit by Kinder Morgan (KMP) which is off its low of the day. Nat gas is higher after a lower open along with crude. Sunoco Logistics (SXL) is up 1 and E V Partners (EVEP) is up 75 cents as the 2 biggest winners. Holly Partners (HEP) is down 80 cents as the biggest loser but no volume here so it may be just a lack of buyers. I took a position for a trade at 38.89 average price today.
Small losses start the day as the dow holds 10000 so far this morning. Duncan Partners (DEP) boosts its distribution by 2 cents as it joins Oneok (OKS) who lifted their payout by 1 cent last week. Both mlps are up today. Kinder Morgan is down 60 cents on the downgrade. Otherwise this morning we have small moves about evenly split between winners and losers.

Watching yesterday it was so predictable it was downright scary. Higher to 10k...pullback...the strength into the close to finish above 10k and just off the highs. Okay so the swami is seeing a lower open today and we will be straddling that 10k line today im sure and dont be surprised to see a rally later today to a higher high. Ultimately its good guessing.

MLPS closed at 261 as we run now to that magical 265-270. I still think this is going to be a logical place to eventually consolidate an build another base. The mlp index is up 85 points for the year or 50% not including distributions. Total return is around 60% or so. Not too shabby!!! Tail winds continue to blow overall.

Oppenheimer is on the horn this morning downgrading Kinder Morgan Partners (KMP) to perform from outperform. And since Kinder is a huge part of the mlp index we are headed down at the open. Nothing else happening on the corporate front. Stock futures this morning are down after earnings on Goldman and Citigroup plus CPI and jobless claims. Energy is lower awaiting oil numbers at 11am. Nat gas selling off again after reaching 5 bucks last week.

Okay..lets get set for another day of trading. Kinder Morgan weakness probably can be bought for a trade. Path of least resistence is higher.

Wednesday, October 14, 2009

MLPS beginning to move up over 261 as the dow touches 10,001.58 intraday just a few minutes ago.

Somebody is buying Crosstex Energy (XTEX) which is up 66 cents or 10%. No news that i could find.

Markets holding just under 10k on the dow. MLPS firm but not exactly ripping the cover off the ball.
MLPS are up over 260 on the index up 1.26 as of this post. Not a big move up but every mlp is higher today except for 3. And those losers are off by pennies. Dow is knocking on the door of 10k after a little hesitation. I think you will continue to see strength slowly build as the day moves on.

Inergy Group (NRGP) DCP Midstream (DPM) and Markwest (MWE) lead the winners list up 50 cents each.

Strong futures this morning as earnings come in above forecasts and outlooks are not as bad as feared so we have a sharply higher open ahead of us. We will hit those levels probably at the open and i would look for strength to build as the day wears on after a mommentary hesitation at the 10k level. This could turn into a runaway rally for a few days as people begin to grasp the concept that the rally may be getting away from them.

Queit in mlp land this morning except for Eagle Rock (EROC) which gets an upgrade to market perform from Wells Fargo.

Tuesday, October 13, 2009


Thought it was time to look at the world through the eyes of the weekly charts and notice that we are only now beginning to turn positive on the 34 week moving average and they are only now beginning to cross. Good sign for the longer term. The resistence level on the mlp index at 260-270 is indicated but the dow chart has a wide opening for a ride up to 11,000 or so before we come across some formidable technical headwinds. Of course all this is subject to interpetation of the individual technicain and i respect all alternative views of this particular universe. But given the tailwinds and the positive seasonality its hard to fight this up move that will probably carry us through year end. 10000 looms and yesterday we tried on low volume which for me doesnt count. Look for a real solid push there over the next couple of days probably earnings driven. MLPS have energy prices supporting a higher move and 260 is doable this morning at the open.

News from Eagle Rock(EROC) as terms of their deal with Natural Gas Partners (NGP) get tweaked a bit. Waiting for market reaction. Nothing yet in the pre market but its early and pre market trading in our stuff is often pretty thin. At first look the deal looks a little better for Eagle Rock as they are getting an extra 10 million for their mineral rights.

Nothing on the upgrade downgrade list so far. Dollar is higher. Stock futures flat.

Monday, October 12, 2009

Cheniere Energy Partners (CQP) and Exterran Partners (EXLP) are the only 2 mlps down today. Everything else is positive with the mlp index up over 2 points and nearing 260 while the Dow has broken out to a new intra day high although its on light volume on a holiday. Still its better than a sharp poke in the eye.

Since its a holiday im not expecting much volitility for the rest of the day.

Anyone paying attention to baseball this weekend surely picked up on the fact that the Colorado Rockies game had to be cancelled because of snow and they played last night with temps near 30. A very cold weather pattern is dominating the midwest and soon the northeast for this entire week. This could be the driver behind nat gas prices which continue to trend higher. Crude is higher by a buck and a half this morning. Add that to stronger stock futures and a falling dollar this morning and the stage is set for an up day. That key reversal from 2 weeks ago winds up failing and the uptrend continues. BTW with regards to negative key reversals (market takes out the prior days high and then closes below the prior days low); when you look back at them over time they wind up being nothing more then statistical noise. Positive key reversals on the other hand tend to be a better bet at telegraphing the end of a short term downtrend.

Since it is Columbus day and banks are closed i would suspect that news items will be just about non existent. So far there is nothing on the upgrade downgrade list. So basically we are trading into a vacuum and the path of least resistence remains up. I suspect sometime this week we take out the high from 2 weeks ago at 9930 and make a decisive run to 10,000 on the dow.

Friday, October 09, 2009

Adjusted for distributions...these MLPs are at all time highs!!!

That of course is the never to be humble opinion of this writer. MLPS staged a 3 point rally and have done of nice job of outperforming the indexes as has been pretty much the case all year long. Next stop will be 265-270 where i believe might be a place to stand back and look around to re-access the situation. There is a long term base going back a few years ago that launced the run to the all time high at 340. But until then there is still more room to go. The dow seems certain to me to challenge 10000 and it may do so next week provided the world doesnt end between now and then.

Not much happening this morning on the corporate side and we dont see anything stirring yet on the upgrade downgrade list. Friday's usually are a slower day for trading action. And with a 3 day weekend for some are open Monday but it is a federal be a little more subdued than usual.

Thursday, October 08, 2009


Sorry guys for no posts yesterday and this morning but working 2 jobs this week with no access and time so it has been difficult to post. The index has broken out decisively higher today as energy stocks are leading the latest dow advance to 9800 as we continue to reverse last weeks key reversal. The next level for MLPS is 270 where i would think there will be sizeable resistence since that is the home of the prior long base. Still we are headed the right way and we will deal with the implications of 270 when we get there.

I wil try to post again later today. Should be back to normal tomorrow.

Tuesday, October 06, 2009

Looks like a solid breaout this morning with the MLP index up 3 points as of this post. Also i put up 2 charts of the repair job underway in some mlps. Exterran Partners (EXLP) announced a deal yesterday and Breitburn (BBEP) said it sees the possibility of resuming distributions down the road as their credit situation improves.


Strong day all the way around yesterday with dow closing up over 100 and mlps closing up over 3 points. We have another rally underway in the pre market so we are going to open over 250 on the mlp index. This is an important area as we've indicated and we need to close decisively above this. And the dow of course looks like it wants to head back to 9900 where that reversal happened last Tuesday.

Energy is up in the pre market as well with Oil up over a buck and nat gas above 5 dollars on November futures. No corporate developements this morning. No upgrades or downgrades. So we will ride the tail winds of the overall tape. Note that in bull trends corrections are fast and last weeks trip down to 9400-9500 on the dow from the 9930 intra top was about a 5% move and that it could have been more than enough.

Monday, October 05, 2009

Closing in on a 4 pont gain on the mlp index this early afternoon. 250 looms large but there is mommentum behind this so we could be poised for another upleg. Stay tuned.
Breitburn (BBEP) affirms borrowing base and hints that distributions many come back next year as liquidity improves! Breitburn up 40 cents this morning.

MLPS are higher by almost 1 point on the index as markets open higher. Inergy Holdings (NRGP) and Regency (RGNC) lead the list of fractional winners so far.

Nat gas sharply higher this morning. Pop up came before the open as UNG sells shares again and that of course means they can buy more futures contracts. Sort of self fulfulling scenario but the trick is being on the right side of the trade. Moved elsewhere rather than deal with all the nonsense.

That headline reflects i think the standard contrary idea that as long as people keep getting rapidly bearish everytime the market turns lower probably means we are not going to go down too much other than the standard 5 to 7% pullbacks. And it could be that we had the pullback last week. Stock futures this morning pointing higher so at least we start this Monday morning on a firm note.

News this morning from Exterran Partners (EXLP) as Exterran Holdings (EXH) is dropping down assets which they have not done in quite awhile. Earlier this year the standing idea from some anal-ists was that no drop downs would occur in 2009 so its a very good sign that they did this as markets continue the slow road back.

Exterran Partners chart shows the repair job is about half done as the stock still stills for about half of what it did at its highs. Distributions here have held steady for several quarters and the reaction today to the drop down will be driven by the preception that distribution growth may resume in coming quarters. All this is being done without an equity offering which is a nice thing. No dilution.

No other corporate developements this morning. Nothing has shown up on the upgrade downgrade list so far. The energy complex is down this morning but nat gas is up and the weather pattern across the US will be colder than normal especially late this week. We could be seeing the first snows in some northern locations by the weekend. The perception of colder than normal weather could begin to impact nat gas trade and perhaps put a bid under nat gas stocks and nat gas mlps.

Friday, October 02, 2009


Sorry for the very late first post today but had so much to do. This is my first chance to sit down. After yesterday's 200 point dow decline and the MLP index down 3 and change the morning started off like another mess was at hand. But as pointed out yesterday in a bull trend those moving averages hold up pretty well and it seems like they are providing at least some end of week support.The mlp index was down over 2 and is now back to just about even. The dow was down this morning and has been see-sawing around unch this afternoon. Not bad really after yesterday's sell-off.

Holly Partners (HEP) and Alliance Partners (ARLP) are the two biggest losers so far today down major fractions while Magellan Midstream (MMP) and Plains All American (PAA) are the biggest winners up fractionally.

Thursday, October 01, 2009

Notice that the dow is coming into a support area in here and if this is just a correction we will turn somewhere from here down to about 9200 or so. MLPs are lying just above the support of the rising moving averages. So its watch and wait to see exactly what we are dealing with here. Its also the first day of the quarter so i guess some people figure its time to book profits.

MLPS are down and dragged by Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) which is down a point and a half on its stock offering. Otherwise most moves are fractional in nature and yes most mlps are down on the day.

Nat gas is getting hit hard on the endless supply numbers. Oil is flat to down a little on the day. Lunch time bringing in a few nibblers but at 1pm we will get a feel for which way this will be headed for the rest of the day.

Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) has gone to the well a few times and they have once again done an offering of shares. 6 million shares are up for grabs and the stock is down 1 and change on the dilution implications in the pre market. MLPs with a double digit stock price continue to use price strength to raise capital which in the long run is a good thing. It speaks well of better market conditions for equity and credit overall.

With the new quarter beginning today the open looks a touch weak but nothing tragic. I continue to wonder about whether we may see some people book profits in mlps which are up 42% this year not counting distributions. Total return of 50% is something you don't see very often and the temptation is there to book profits between now and year end. And remember many people probably have lots of capital loss carryfowards on their taxes to offest any gains. Also bothering me a bit is the 250 level which continues to offer some formidable resistence. Of course one good up day takes that out but I worry that this could be some sort of intermediate term top and that the index will take a trip back down to the mid 220's which i would think is the bottom of the range. Still not giving up though on another breakout.

Stock futures as we said are lower. Oil and nat gas are lower. Oil had a 3 dollar run yesterday. Nat gas has inventory numbers out at 10:30am which should be a market mover. Duetche Securities starting Captal Products Partners (CPLP) at a buy. No trades in the pre market. Not much else happening so far this morning.

October will bring with it the next round of distribtuion announcements as we head toward the end of this month along with earnings. At least in a month or so the checks will be in the mail!