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Thursday, January 31, 2008

At the highs of the day up over 2 points and over 297 on the MLP index. We are slicing through moving averages...we are above the 34 and just above the 55...299 gives us the 89 day. Now we were here a few weeks ago but this has a different feel to it. 1 point plus winners include Global Partners (GLP) K-Sea (KSP) Oneok LP (OKS) Sunoco Logistics (SXL) and Kinder Morgan (KMP) which continues btw to make 52 week highs almost daily.

Constellation Partners (CEP is the biggest loser today down 1 and some change as they filed a 1 billion dollar mixed shelf. E V Partners (EVEP) was down 1 but has just news there. And a few others losing fractions.
Well you can sense there is a change in attitude and in the trading pattern. We opened on the MLP index down 2...and turned it around rather quickly and we're up 1 and some change...heading back over 296 and yesterday's highs. Extremely encouraging action. The rate cut bringing fed funds more in line with market rates may be finally causing the rubber band of the yield spread to snap.

Oneok LP (OKS) is the big winner up 1 and some change...most mlps showing fractional gains.

Dow was -200 now +100
Sharp down open coming which i actually prefer....heading for a retest maybe. Meanwhile no additional headlines and no upgrades or downgrades.

Getting ready for the down open on Linn Energy (LINE) since outside of a cancer cure (and thats some reach for an energy company) nothing this company does makes shareholders happy....even an almost 12% yield.

Bidding 21.37 Offered 22.48 in the pre-market...oops..a seller..stock has traded down in the pre-open. Only in America!

Okay so i'm being sarcastic but since we seen this go to a 12% yield on private equity stock pressure and the general market mess i'm not assuming anything. And we've been through all the reasons ad-nauseum. Bottom line is a 10% yield which still prices in a lot of risk gives you a 25 buck stock price. We'll see.

Meanwhile unlike prior reversals which took MLPS into the toilet with the rest of the tape we managed to hold on to a solid gain in the MLP index yesterday. Now much of the gain came from the heavyweights like Kinder Morgan (KMP) Enterprise (EPD) and Nustar (NS) but the rate cuts may be finally giving us some much needed attention.
We still need to get through the moving averages which is right above us. Never a dull moment. The dow chart below is not encouraging here but the fed is getting aggressive.
Earnings news this morning from Alliance Resources (ARLP) and Alliance Holdings (AHGP) which were records. The company is also giving guidance for 2008. Nothing yet on the upgrade downgrade list so far this morning. Watch for more MLPS going ex-distribution this morning including Hiland LP (HLND) Penn Virginia Resource and Holdings (PVR,PVG) among others.

Wednesday, January 30, 2008 the interest of disclosure i am long Linn that being said...this mlp is so ridiculously mispriced. Just on yield alone...lets say you want to give it a 10% yield...which for an mlp that is growing distributions is ridiculous....but humor me here. That puts the price at 26. Now i know there were supply issues here with priviate equity that hit the tape. Still Linn was being priced for no distribution increase.

I am going to be bold here and predict an up close tomorrow for this one.
Linn now bidding 22.50 x 24.50
Some after hours trades in Linn at 21.70. Now bidding 21.85 x 24.50 in after hours.
Linn Energy Increases distribution to 2.62 annual as advertised. Enjoy your 12% yield
HEADLINE: LINN ENERGY ANNOUNCES 10% Distribution increase
MLP index now up 3.25 and heading for 296.
We're at 295 on the MLP index and up 2.50 pts. Kinder Morgan (KMP) and Enterprise (EPD) leading the way higher. Fed cut 50 basis points. We're entering resistence.

BTW so far the big mlps are leading...waiting for the smaller ones to catch up.
Going into the fed meeting MLPS are up on the day with the index up 1 and some change thanks to the upgrades of Kinder Morgan Partners (KMP) and Nustar (NS) both up nearly 1 point each. That brings the index closer to the moving average resistence from 295-298

Still its better than a down day...which after the fed moves...who knows. Atlas Holdings (AHD)and Nustar Holdings (NSH) both fractional winners on their upgrades and Hiland(HLND) is up 1 and some change and whopping volume of 200 shares. Try not to get in anyones way!

Elsewhere we we fractional moves in either direction. I've noticed Atlas Pipeline (APL) sells down by 1 point or more intra day and then rallies to an up close by days end. Somebody is moving stock around for sure. The flavor of the tape continues to feel more positive..sell offs in shares are met with buyers in the afternoon.

But now stand by as the fed does its thing.
Dow Jones says Wachovia ups Hiland Partners to outperform from market perform but the symbol they use is for Hiland Holdings (HPGP). Waiting for clarification.

I've been wondering when this was going to happen...that is...when mlp and gp prices got so low that the brokerage houses would be falling all over themselves and upgrade stocks in here. Well maybe today is the day. JP Morgan is upgrading Kinder Morgan Partners (KMP) to overweight from neutral. Kinder has been the best performing MLP since August as it sits just under a 52 week high. And Wachovia moves Atlas Pipeline Holdings (AHD) Nustar (NS) and Nustar Holdings (NSH) to outperforom from market perform. The Nustar and Kinder upgrades will have impact on the MLP index as they have big weightings.

News leftover from last night. If holders were nervous about E V Partners (EVEP) and their pre-announced distribution you need not be nervous any longer as they said 60 cents...and it is 60 cents. So now we wait for Linn Energy (LINE) which ought to come today.

We were in a tight trading range yesterday and we saw a slightly higher close in the MLP index. Today of course its all about the fed and whether we see 25 or 50 or (God forbid) no cut. Of course if the market can expect to see selling here as well. But the day is young and there are always surprises lurking.

Tuesday, January 29, 2008

Approaching 2pm and we are absolutely unch on the MLP index. Holly Partners (HEP) boosts by a penny. The stock is down fractionally. In fact all of the moves today are fractional in nature both up or down. Nustar (NS) Hiland Partners (HLND) Penn Virginia Holdings (PVG) Alliance Resource (ARLP) and Buckeye (BPL) are fractional winners. On the losing side we have Atlas Resource (ATN) Williams (WPZ) and Breitburn (BBEP) among the losers.

So i guess sideways is good. At least its not unrelenting selling and permanent residency on the new lows list.

The distribution increases just keep on coming. The Atlas trinity (Pipeline, Holdings, Resources ) (APL,AHD,ATN) all hiked yesterday. And they weren't the only ones. I put the links all on one page for your shopping conveience.

Meanwhile we've strung together 3 up days in a row. Moving average resistence lies just above us at 295 or so. There is still a lot of work to do of course but the action off the breakdown is encouraging. And there is still room for more upside.

I will add to this post as news breaks this morning.

Monday, January 28, 2008

Actually coming to grips with the fact that we are up now 3 days in a row. Opened higher..sold off...found a bottom and now near the highs of the day up 1 and change on the mlp index. Penn Virginia Resource (PVR) and Suburban Propane (SPH) are up 1 and some change. Nice fractional gains in MLPS like E V Partners (EVEP) Natural Resource (NRP) Constellation Partners (CEP) Oneok LP (OKS) and Sunoco Logistics (SXL).

Breitburn (BBEP) is down 1 and some change as the biggest loser. Buckeye Holdings (BGH) and DCP Midstream (DPM) are down about 1 each. Fractional losers in Penn Virginia Holdings (PVG) Linn Energy (LINE) Regency (RGNC) and Atlas Pipeline Partners (APL).

How does 1 billion dollars in cash flow sound? Well those are the numbers that Enterprise (EPD) is posting this morning. And Dan Duncan has his hand in Duncan Partners (DEP) and they too post record earnings this morning. Kind of re-enforces the idea that this business is doing fine right now in spite of all the market turmoil. Meanwhile speaking of time Linn Energy (LINE) has yet to announce its distribution for the quarter. Last quarter they did it on 10/17 so we are 11 days late here. Of course the speculation here by some posters has been that Linn may not boost to 2.62 annual as promised. I have also posed that question. The company as recently as a couple of weeks ago re-stated the intention to hike. I still the the stock price discounts no hike so if we go to 2.62 we see shares rally.

There are no other news items in the group this morning that i could find and no upgrades or downgrades. So its a Monday morning after what was a very wild week where we traded down to 275 on the mlp index and actually closed higher on the week at over 291. Resistence on the charts continues to sit around 294-297.

Friday, January 25, 2008

Sorry for the lack of posts today but frankly...this week has me wiped out. We actually had a pretty nice finish the highs but we snapped higher after briefly turning negative. So we rallied while the dow closed down 170 and near its lows of the day. And there were some nice gains on the board today as well.

So everybody enjoy your weekend. Sunday is my 20th anniversay of my 29th birthday...celebrating with a prime rib!
Morning headlines...BIG distribution boosts for holders of Hiland (HLND) and Hiland Holdings (HPGP). Also we have earnings and distribution info from Nustar (NS). Regency Partners (RGNC) lifts its payout.

Did you find yourself feeling like that yesterday? Did you find yourself viewing every uptick with disbelief and every downtick the sign that a reversal was imminent? Did you need CPR when you saw that Linn Energy (LINE) was up? Goes to show you just how the bear market has infected our mindset. I guess a 20%+ sell off from the high will do that to you.

So now we've had a 6 point rally in the mlp index and there is still headroom to get us back to the 295 level so with the strong futures markets i would think we could get there. Lots of distribution news last night and the hikes continue to come in.

Btw the dow chart has headroom as well to get back to the moving averages which are sitting around 12800. BTW i am not a believer that this is the market bottom. Bottoms take time and after this rally has run its course i would think we'll need to come down and base build for awhile. Still if we can get into a sideways trend it would be better then relentless selling.

This morning no headlines yet and no upgrades or downgrades so far. BTW shock of shocks yesterday...Linn Energy (LINE) was up over 1. I checked back from last quarter and the company put out its distribution news in mid November so it is a bit late in stating the payout. The reaction to the pre-announced boost will be interesting to say the least so we await with great anticipation! Global Partners (GLP) increased its distribution yesterday and the stock price was actually down on the day...Constellation Partners (CEP) did not increase its distribution yesterday and that came after the close so we'll see if that has been priced in. It already yields over 8%.

Thursday, January 24, 2008

A sea of green and a 6 point plus up close. We're back to 290 and there is still some headroom.
After the close we had distribution increases from Markwest,(MWE) DCP Midstream (DPM) Crosstex Energy (XTEX) Crosstex (XTXI) and Spectra Energy Partners (SEP). Thanks to the poster who posted in the comments section some other distribution announcements that i missed. Constellation Energy (CEP) announces its distribution but there is no increase for unitholders here.

Earlier today we had earnings and a distribution increase from Buckeye Partners (BPL) and also from Buckeye Holdings (BGH) which put up numbers and boosted the payout.

All in all a good day. We're in such a bear mood that we probably looked at today's rally with a lot of skepticism; and thats probably a good thing.
The earth must be spinning in reverse on its axis. Or there is something wrong with my screen as Linn Energy(LINE) is up 1.22. Must need medication.
UP 5 and change and over 288 and at the high of the day. Gasp! Linn Energy (LINE) is up!

Lots of 1 POINT winners and Energy Transfer (ETP) is up 2 and change leading the way. Natural Resource (NRP) Buckeye (BPL) Sunoco Logistics (SXL) Magellan Midstream (MMP) are 1.50 winners. EV Partners (EVEP) Suburban Propane (SPH) and Boardwalk (BWP) are up 1. Lots of fractional plus signs on the board as well.

Just a few issues on the losers list and except Inergy Holdings (NRGP) which is down 1 and change but volume is low.

Could we get a close over 290?
SSSHHHHH!!!! mlps are up...3.50 on the index which completes yesterday's reversal. But don't talk too loud.
Some good distribution news coming out this morning as Global Partners (GLP) lifts its payout by 3.25 cents. We also have Inergy (NRGY) and Inergy Holdings (NRGP) taking payouts higher as well.

Yesterday's 600 point swing was one massive reversal and typically what happens in these situation is that the big boys turn first and the rest of the market plays catch up over the next couple of days. So i suspect we will be up today and since we are down 12 out of the last 13 days including 10 in a row, and we've only had 2 up days since January 1st.

BTW i want to point out again that at least insiders continue to step up to the plate as 2 EV Partners (EVEP) insiders bought a total of 13000 shares on Tuesday. Links to those filings were posted last night.

This is an early post this morning so at this point we have no corporate news and no upgrades or downgrades. Stock futures which were down overnight are now nicely higher and we have green arrows in energy and commodities. The stock market has lots of headroom to rally in here and we could run to 12600-12800 where i would expect us to hit some sort of wall. As for MLPS we have room to get to 295-297 on the index but that would assume that we'll actually have a series of up closes let alone just 1 up close. Yesterday's action brought us down a little over 20% from the July high of 342...66 points from top to bottom. Yesterday we saw selling in Kinder Morgan Partners (KMP) which was down 4 points intraday. It closed down just fractionally on the day. Kinder was hitting 52 week highs and the index would probably be much lower had this not been the case since KMP has a big weighting in the MLP index. So we face yet another day. Everything seems to be indicating its time for a long overdue big bounce. If we can't bounce here...we'll never bounce.

Wednesday, January 23, 2008

Made it back to a 2 point loss by the close after being down 9. Insider buys in E V Partners yesterday in the 27 area..10 thousand shares worth and here is a second insider. Sunoco Logistics posts earnings and a distribution increase.

Its time for an up day...whatever that is!
Donw just 2.99 as the dow rally of +240 tries to bring MLPS back. At least we're 6 points off the lows. Kinder Morgan was down 3 is now down 10 cents. And a few mlps have turned higher.Oneok LP (OKS) was down 3 now down 75 cents. Not all have come back but its a start.
With the XOi down over 60 points i wonder how much of the mlp selling today has to do with the wholesale dumping of energy and commodity stocks. You gotta love bear markets.

Dow now up...the mlp index is over 279 down 6 and some change.
Down 7 and 2 points off the lows...oh joy!!!
Penn Virginia Holdings (PVG) announces a distribution boost of 2 cents to 32 cents and the stock is a winner today as it is down only 30 cents! Everything is down and some down big like Oneok LP (OKS)down nearly 3 and Kinder Morgan (KMP) also down nearly 3. Those were the 2 charts of the better performers in this mess that i posted so i'm really batting a thousand today. Lots of issues down 1 point or more..all too numerous to list. The MLP index is down nearly 9 points and has now broken below the August 2007 intraday low and it is nearly back to 270 which was a major breakout point nearly 2 years ago.

That towel you see is mine as i just threw it.
Oppenheimer starts Crosstex (XTEX) at an outperform with a $37 target.

You know things are bad when you were down 500 points and you finish down 128 and you call it a rally. Well here is the short term Alphatrends view on the overall market. Visit the blog btw if you have a chance

Meanwhile we went below the August intraday low yesterday and rallied back to a little less than a 4 point loss or 1.3%. I don't know what else to say other than watch the open gap downs which get corrected fairly quickly. Might give the lucky among you to add to shares at well below post open prices. Which leads me to suggest to avoid market orders at the open if you are selling unless you want to unload shares by practically gifting them to the seller. Use limits on both sides of the trade.

I just don't know what else to say in trying to get us through this trying time. Note the 2 charts below of Kinder Morgan (KMP) and Oneok LP (OKS) which are probably the two best charts out there. So if you have to buy these are holding up better than others. The Oneok LP (OKS) chart is i admit not the prettiest chart but it is the best of a sad bunch. Kinder Morgan is sitting just below its 52 week high.

This morning we have futures down 25 points on the S&P so it looks like we are going to get an immediate retest of yesterday's low. I like down opens like this as i've said many times but its going to tell us real quick whether we'er setting the table for a vicious 1000 point rally to the 12700-12900 area or a further breakdown in prices. Oil is down this morning while natural gas is a little higher. So far we have no news but earnings and distribution announcements should be coming and it will be interesting to see whethere distribution boosts which will take yields and yield spreads to new highs will have any impact at all. Nothing is on the upgrade downgrade list so far this morning.

Finally Factoids admits that he's getting more attention from the female of the species so he will be updating his mlp info twice a week instead of 4 times a week. If you haven't been to his website it is a must visit for any MLP investor. It has tons of info and will answer just about any question you have about your favorite mlp and the numbers they put out.

Tuesday, January 22, 2008

Down 6 points on the MLP index. Most MLPS off the lows of the day however. At 2pm Inergy Holdings (NRGP) and Holly Partners (HEP) are the biggest losers down nearly 2 points each. A mile long list of 1 point minuses. Right now Eagle Rock (EROC) Ferrellgas (FGP) and Genesis LP (GEL) are the only small fractional winners.

If the dow rally holds in the last hour i think we should see MLPS uptick into the close. Thats the big if!
Sunoco Logistics (SXL) turns higher after being down as much as 5 points earlier. MLPS are recovering with the rest of the market which is down just 90 points on the dow. There are still a lot of MLPS down 1 dollar or more. But we are making progress.
Rallying well off the lows now down only 7 on the MLP index and 155 on the dow. Looking more and more like we've had a climax low in here.
Well they threw em out the window this morning at the open. The MLP index is down 11 points and below the intraday August low. Every single MLP and GP is down which makes this easy.

The question here for both it the climax?

We'll know later today but it seems like we are trying to bottom in here in my view. You ahve multiple point declines in a number of issues. Remember folks the yield rubber band is stretched to the breaking point. None on of the declines we're seeing is news driven, Not a single MLP is dropping on corporate developements.
FED CUTS 75 BASIS POINTS surprise this morning that we had slipped off the edge of the cliff. The fed cu 75 basis points, the market rallied well off the lows and then sold off again. We are only slightly off the lows on the overall market. The 10 year is at 3.52%. This is going to be one of those opens folks. MLPS will get caught in the downdraft at least at the start.

I don't know what this is going to do if anything but Energy Transfer Partners and Energy Transfer Equity (ETP,ETE) did approve their distribution increases. No other news and this is the kind of day where its about the markets anyway. Nothing is on the upgrade downgrade list this morning.

At this point lets get through the open and sit back and review. Not going to be pretty.

Monday, January 21, 2008


I guess its a good thing we are closed today because it gives us a chance to relax ahead of what promises to be a lovely day tomorrow. 3 to 5% drops across the board. Dow futures down nearly 400 pts...S&P futures down 50 points. FYI US stocks are trading in Europe. Exxon is down 4 dollars to 81 and change as oil also implodes. GE is down 1. Google down 25. IBM down 2.60. Colgate down . etc etc etc. The good news is finally, finally we are going to get a panic down open to scare the shit of everybody and flush this thing out once and for all. A friend of mine who is big on "Gann" technicals said that 1250 is the inflection point. So if panic is coming...MLPS will be getting thrown out the window as well. If you have Bloomberg TV you can see the prices on the crawl.

On the other hand the Giants won!!!!!!!!!

Saturday, January 19, 2008


Okay with everybody being pretty much hung out to dry a few of you have been posting about what you are doing through all of this mess. Well here is the link if you wish to add your never to be humble opinion to the list. You know things are bad if i'm posting on a Saturday. MLPS closed below their closing low although we are just 8 points above the intra-day low. In the context of the overall market it is getting to be climactic in here. MLPS are usually the last to get blown out of a portfolio and there was portfolio blowout on Friday with that 4 point loss. I saw 2 point gap downs on a number of issues. We would have been down far more than 4 had not Kinder Morgan (KMP) and Oneok LP (OKS) closed flat to slightly higher. We are always the last ones to get sold. The sitemeter is spiking with my daily readership over 700. In August it got to 1200 on the actual day of the spike low. Yield spreads are at ridiculous levels..averaging over 300 points and in some cases as high as 700+points from the 3.60% 10 year. And if you measure since December 21st we are down only fractionally...far far better than the overall market where everything is getting shot.

Just keep telling yourself...each day we're one day closer! Each day we're one day closer!

Friday, January 18, 2008

MLPS are getting thrown out the window right now which in the pecking order of what to sell..remember we are last on the list. When you've sold everything else and have nothing left you get to MLPS. Penn Virgina (PVG) is down nearly 2 as is Holly Partners (HEP). 1 point plus losers include Energy Transfer (ETP), Magellan (MMP) Breitburn(BBEP) Hiland (HLND) Hiland Holdings (HPGP)Buckeye (BPL) and on and on.

Hey Kinder Morgan (KMP)is up albeit 6 cents.

Look for 12,000 to go and take everything else with it.
We've just broken below 290 on the MLP index...for the fourth time.
Look out..290 is about to go if the market implodes.
Its beginning to get almost unbearable to watch this from day to day. The rally is horrible. It has no staying power. MLPS are just languishing here. Linn Energy (LINE) is to me trading like its not going to hike its distribution. Need i go on?

I'm going to be violently ill.

Thursday, January 17, 2008


Yesterday was down right ugly all the way around and everything went down. As of this early posting however futures are up 130 dow points and 15 s&p points. Now whether that holds or not remains to be seen but we have dropped 1700 points or 13% in the last month so a nice bounce is due whatever the catylist.

Now you may find this difficult to believe but in the time frame that the dow is down we are actually still about 1% higher from the December 21st low. Your mlp portfolio may not feel that way since its the big cap mlps that have held up better than the smaller ones.

After yesterday's collapse i thought this might give us some perspective on what the overall trend is. MLPS can live in their own little world for so long but when markets implode they sell everything.

So we begin with this early post so i will repost as morning news breaks. There were no headlines after the close yesterday.
12,200 is about to go and MLPS at the lows of the day. Overall market down 2%...MLPS down 0.40%. I suppose that is some consolation.
Well we have an 18 tick gain on the MLP index after selling off with the rest of the market. This 295 level continues to hold so lets see if can rally em back to the highs of the day. Constellation (CEP) is up 1 and we have some nice fractional gains today in Breitburn(BBEP) Energy Transfer (ETP) and Nustar (NS).

Losers list includes Penn Virginia Holdings (PVG) down 50 cents, Holly Partners (HEP) Suburban Propane (SPH) Inergy Holdings (NRGP) and Atlas Holdings (AHD).

At least we're not imploding.

And that pretty much says it all. I posted a host of good news last night from a few companies and there distribution and/or guidance boosts. This gave us a 2 point rise in the MLP index but then the overall market sold off as Mr Bernake speaks down 100 plus points. Kinder Morgan (KMP) is up 66 cents and at a new 52 week high! Natural Resource Partners (NRP) is off its high up 20 cents. Copano(CPNO) opened up 1 and change but has given most of that back on its good news.

I have some errands to run so i'll be back later; hopefully after these pompous windbags shut up.

Wednesday, January 16, 2008

Natural Resource Partnes (NRP) increases its distribution and it significantly boosts cash flow and revenue estimates for 2008. Stock was down a point and a half today. Adding to the flow of good news after the close.
More after the close headlines as Plains All American boosts its distribution and affirms 08 guidance although it expects it to be at the low end of the range. Also Copano (CPNO) gives a nice 4 cent boost to its shareholders.
With the dow selling off in the last 10 minutes mlps went with them and we could not manage an up close...down a small fraction and at least well off the lows of the day. After the close Kinder Morgan comes out with earnings and a very nice distribution boost. But these days it doesn't seem to matter. Still KMP is sitting right near its 52 week high.
i just don't know if my heart can take an up close. The MLP index is nearing its high of the day at 295.67 up 20 ticks. Still some have not gotten off the mat yet like Holly Partners (HEP) Penn Virginia (PVG) and a few others. Still some of the bigger caps have turned higher.
Down just 8 ticks on the mlp index as it rallies with the rest of the tape. Last hour should see us continue to play catch up if there is a god.
Around 10:30am somebody did a massive dumping of MLPS. If look at the daily tick chart a number of mlps and gp's imploded almost all at the same time. Leads me to believe some fund or brokerage or somebody needed to sell something. Maybe to make a margin call? I have no proof of this but i guarantee somebody threw in the towel!

The index is at 294.05 down 1.40 on the day. Natural Resource (NRP) and Penn Virginia Holdings (PVG) are both down about 1.75 on the day as the biggest losers. Nustar (NS) is also down about 1. Holly Partners (HEP ) is down 1.25. Nustar Holdings (NSH) is down nearly 1. Hiland Holdings (HPGP) is also down about 1.

Kinder Morgan (KMP) comes out with earnigns and distribution info after the close today. The stock is up fractionally at just under 56.

Take a look at the Dow chart from late December and you will notice that we have dropped nearly 10% or about 1300 dow points from just under 13800 to 12500 yesterday. Meanwhile in that period the MLP index has moved from 290 to 296 or nearly up 3%. I know it doesn't feel that way and perhaps if you are not in all the big cap mlps you are probably in the hole.

But it is important to keep perspective here and remember that we have a slew of distribution increases coming and the distribution itself which will arrive in the mail in 30 days. And also remember that volume continues to dry up (for mlps anyway) on the downside. Some of these issues are moving down on 500 share sales telling us its a combination of bids drying up and a small number of sellers moving prices.
Note we had news last night on Oneok LP(OKS) and Enterprise (EPD) of distribution boosts along with a Hiland buy recommendation. Scroll down to the post before this one.Stock futures have come well off the lows this morning. I was hoping for a wicked down open to wash everybody out and then we can have a meaningful rally. The overall market it desperately trying to hold 12500 on the dow. Oil is down along with nat gas.
Jet set for another adventure.

Tuesday, January 15, 2008

Distribution boosts rolling in after the close. Oneok LP (OKS) boosts its distribution by .0125 cents to 1.02 or 4.04 annual. On a 62 dollar stock price it gives us a yield of 6.5 % or about 275 basis points above the 10 year. Also boosting we have Enterprise Products Partners which is now at 50 cents or 2 dollars annual. This puts the yield at 6.3% or about 260 basis points above the 10 year.

Morgan Keegan after the close starts Hiland Partners (HLND) at a buy.

Nothing else on the news front tonight. Look for a horrible open tomorrow with futures down 10 points after the close as Intel implodes on earnings. Maybe if we get an implosing tomorrow at the open we can finally wash em out. I guess it was a good thing that MLPS seem to be trying to hold against the imploding stock market. We seem to be near the yield wall.
The only thing more shocking than an up day in Linn Energy (LINE) is an up day in Constellation Partners (CEP) and its 13 day losing streak is in jeopardy as it is now up 9 cents.
Oh my God i can't stand it.

Sitemeter views continue spiking.
Selling off with everything else. down 2.66 on the index at 295 and change. Its just ugly out there. Dow desperately trying to hold 12500.
This comes from the "department of grasping at straws." I can't find any mlps on the new lows list. Its possible i may be missing some. Let me know if anyone sees an mlp on the new lows list.
Atlas Pipeline ran to 45.50 and just as fast is now at 44.50 and down on the day. Who knows.
Atlas Pipeline Partners (APL) is moving higher for some reason up 40 cents on suddenly active trading.
i've neglected to point out that Constellation Energy Partners (CEP) is shooting for 14 consecutive down closes. Its a perfect example of the fact that there are no buyers out there and a few hundred shares can move the stock down a point. The good news is that at 1 point a day it will be at zero soon and then it "might" be a buy.
The sitemeter indicator is 3 for 3 in calling turns in the MLP index. The theory is when my visitors to this blog spike well above the daily average it markets a short term bottom. It spiked on the day of the August bottom, and off the 290 bottom retests that have occured since. Well in the food for thought department my readership has begun spiking again. We'll see if its telling us something.

With the dow down 200 points it has taken us down although as the pattern has been lately we're down but not as bad as the broad tape. Only 5 issues are up, Nustar Holdings (NSH) Energy Transfer Equity (ETE) Suburban Propane (SPH)Regency (RGNC) and Semagroup LP (SGLP) which announced a deal this morning. Inergy Holdings (NRGP) is down 1 as the biggest loser and everything else showing fractional losses of varying degrees.

Sem group Energy Partners (SGLP) gets the deal wheels going here as it is aquiring assets from Sem Materials which part of the priviately own Semgroup. It might move the stock but i doubt it will have any huge impact given the overall enviornment. Stifel Nicholas is starting coverage on K-SEA Partners (KSP) with a buy. The stock has been sinking lately along with every other MLP. I took a look at the chart of Constellation Energy Partners (CEP) which had only a handful of trades yesterday and noticed the stock is down 13 days in a row! No news in that stretch, no downgrades, nothing. 13 days in a row and nothing resembling an uptick. Its just one example of the kind of enviornment we are in.

We are coming close to a slew of distribution increases, some already indicated and some not. Its going to be interesting to see what that does to some of these that are carrying near double digit yields and 500 point spreads to treasuries. If that doesn't spark some sort of return to the mean i'm afraid we're in for a long period of a grinding down of a growling bear for the group.

Stock futures suck this morning indicating a 100 point down open. Energy not doing very much but that has ceased to matter lately. The 10 year is at 3.73%.

Monday, January 14, 2008

Buckeye (BPL) sinking down 1.59. No news but the MLP index down near the lows of the day down 0.60 with the dow up 160.
Buckeye Partners (BPL) is down over 1 dollar. No news there but it is dragging the MLP index down to the lows of the day while the dow rallies to the highs of the day. Isn't that special! Can't catch a break although the loss is a contained half a point. Only thing i'm noticing here is that volume seems to be drying up and bid ask spreads on some of these are getting a bit wide. Volume drying up is a good thing when you are selling off but this could also mean just a respite in the selling. Who knows. Getting frustrated here.
The MLP index is going nowhere fast in either direction today. It opened higher by about a point...then move just below unchanged and is sitting there for now. Nustar Holdings(NSH) which has seen a lot of insider buying lately is leading the way higher and is up 1 point. Small fractional winners in Energy Transfer (ETP), Williams Partners (WPZ) Nustar (NS) and Crosstex (XTXI).\

Suburban Propane (SPH) is down nearly 1 on the losers list. K-Sea (KSP), Sunoco Logistics (SXL), Teppco (TPP) Regency (RGNC) , Targa Resources (NGLS), Penn Virginia Holdings (PVG) and few others are down fractionally.

Market overall is holding up for a change. Lets see how they feel after lunch and if the buyers arrive for our little group.

Take your catylist from anywhere you can get it; even if its from a tech stock albeit a big one. In an enviornment where you can't even entice bids with yields 3 points or more above treasury note if IBM's pre-announcement gets people buying MLPS so be it. At least the chart of the MLP index continues to carve out some sort of base and at least the index is still above its August and December lows while the dow industrials closed below their August closing low.

Meanwhile not all MLP charts are sad. Kinder Morgan (KMP) continues to be in breakout mode and might make a 52 week high today.

Markwest Energy (MWE) also looks good on the chart as it has broken out as well. So it ain't all bad. But we need reasons to buy and maybe today we could get a well deserved long overdue rally in the overall market which will carry us along with it.

Natural gas this morning is catching a bid up 21 cents as cold weather is forecast to spread across the midwest and northeast over the next 2 weeks. Watch the nat gas mlps like Atlas Pipeline (APL) for example which could catch a bid here if investors run to anything nat gas. For a pure play there is the nat gas etf (UNG) which follows the nat gas contract tick for tick. Not a recommendation here but something to watch on your screen if you care to.

The UNG chart looks like it is breaking out of a nice base in here.

News this morning on Teppco (TPP) as it is announcing its distribution for the quarter. No change from last quarter. No other headlines and no upgrades or downgrades so far this morning. Now that stocks are moving higher oil is catching a bid up 1 dollar on crude. We will begin a slew of earnings reports and distribution increases as the next few weeks move along and we're just 2 weeks from the onslaught of ex-distribution trading...30 days from the checks going in the mail. At least there is some money coming from somewhere.

Friday, January 11, 2008

I would have thought the divergence in the financials would have brought buyers back but i guess i'm wrong so far. Down 250 and just off the lows of the day on the dow and at the lows of the day on the MLP index down 1.46 at 298.16. Last hour of the week.
We're at 299 and down just .62 and actually the overall tape today is not as as bad as the dow indicates. In fact i would look for a rally this afternoon. Still feeling optimistic. My God Linn Energy (LINE) is the days biggest winner up 52 cents. Do we have a double bottom? Atlas Holdings (AHD) Hiland (HLND) and Sunoco Logistics (SXL) are also higher.

Constellation Energy Partners (CEP) is down 1. Buckeye (BPL) Holly Partners (HEP) Atlas Pipeline (APL) and most others down fractions.

Lots of stuff going on all over the market with Countrywide, Merrill Lynch, American Express, the Fed..etc etc and in the face of the dow down 166 as of this posting...mlps don't look so bad with the index down less than one point. So its not too bad at all really. Martin Midstream (MMLP) and US Shipping (USS) are the 2 biggest losers down about three quarters of a point. On the upside Hiland (HLND) Kinder Morgan (KMP and gasp! Linn Energy are up small fractions. Dow down 180 now with the MLP index down 1 point. Long trading day ahead so i think i'll go to the gym and costco and see what happens. Feeling optimistic for some reason.

Thursday, January 10, 2008

After the Bernake speech they don't know which way to go. Lots of volitility. MLPS following that volitility but in the context of a very tight range. Alliance Resource (ARLP) and Penn Virginia (PVG) are today's bigger winners up nice fractions. Also higher we have Natural Resource (NRP) EV Partners (EVEP) Oneok (OKS) and Atlas Holdings (AHD).

Constellation Partners (CEP) and Sunoco Logistics (SXL) are down a little over a point. Atlas Resource (ATN) DCP Midstream (DPM) Crosstex (XTEX) and Markwest (MWE) down smaller fractions.

While i was writing this post the dow has gone from positive to negative and back 3 or 4 times. Push and pull and lots of tape tension building for a big move one way or the other.

Just want to point out that the MLP index continues to cluster around its crictical moving averages and holding them. Positive sign. The index opened lower and is now higher by .25 and over 300 again.

Energy Transfer Partners (ETP is our Alcoa (AA) and it posted very good earnings last night. The stock has seen a trade up at 54 this morning which is up 2.54 from yesterday's close. Looks like a renegade trade of 200 shares so I wouldn't put too much value into it. The earnings release also has info on Energy Transfer Equity (ETE) which is the general partner. Also i forgot to post this yesterday but Oneok LP (OKS) raised its 2008 guidance which was good for a 70 cent gain on the stock yesterday.

This morning stock futures are a touch softer after yesterday's reversal. MLPS did come off the lows yesterday but the index closed a little lower and just under the 300 level. BTW we are down just a little less than 1% since January 1st which compares to the 5 to 8% declines seen on the rest of the tape. So we are outperforming the overall tape. Noticed a little panic on some of the comments over the last few days so i just think we should keep a little perspective here.

Friedman Billings is reiterating its outperform rating on 2 mlps, Atlas Pipeline (APL) and Legacy (LGCY) although it adjust its target prices down slightly. I'm not a big fan of targets since the market has a tendency to exceed them or not get close at all. Lately its been the latter.

Energy futures are down except for Nat gas which is up. Maybe this year will be the year of natural gas to rally. Its up 4 cents this morning. And colder weather is coming longer range over the next 2 to 3 weeks.

My dell laptop is giving me a hard time today. A mac is looking more and more attractive.

Wednesday, January 09, 2008


Yesterday's last hour collapse ( and it was a collapse) in the Dow Industrials did pull down MLPS but we managed an up close; well off the highs when the index at one point was up 3 points yesterday. They were buying everything defensive yesterday and we need to see follow through today if the sell off continues or if the market stages some sort of stand in here.

It makes for tough times in here trading and trying to figure out where we are going. Overall i would perfer a hard early morning sell off and then a rally back later. Futures were stronger early but have now turned lower on the S&P.

MLPS could use some drivers but there are no headlines this morning and no upgrades or downgrades so we'll just let the trading day begin.

Tuesday, January 08, 2008

After that last hour implosion and breakdown of the stock market it was rather amazing that we held on to a gain today at all. But we did. And at least for today MLPS behaved like other defensive stocks. They went up. So maybe...just maybe...we will see money flowing out of everything else and flowing back into our group...because we've got yield.

No news after hours but i will point out that one insider of Nustar (NS) is buying stock with both hands. He is also buying Nustar Holdings (NSH) with both hands.
Atlas Pipeline Partners (APL) is very active today up 1.30 on 1.6 million shares so far. Not sure if anything is going on. No news but as a poster has pointed out big volume is being moved around on these shares lately.

We're off the highs as the overall market is selling off after a morning rally. Countrywide is the issue today. Also Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) was up 1 and it is now down a small fraction. But overall we seem to be looking good so far today.
Running MLPS out of the gate with the index up over 3 points and building on strength. Big boys leading the way right now with Energy Transfer (ETP) up 1 and Kinder Morgan (KMP) knocking on the door of 56. Looks like a good day.

Laying these 2 charts side by side lately has been interesting since it seems we've been in the push and pull from day to day. The action yesterday on the dow smelled of a bottom as they were swinging back and forth looking into the abyss several times and finishing up on the day.

The MLP index continues to trace out its base out of a triple bottom and we have moved above the 34 and 55 day moving averages for the first time since late October. The next thing to look for is for the moving averages to cross over and turn the slope positive.

Meanwhile on the weekly chart some of the technical indicators have turned positive since they went to a sell in July. And then we have 2 MLPS yesterday breaking out on the charts. Kinder Morgan Partners (KMP) and Markwest Energy (MWE) both at 52 week highs (when adjusted for distributions). These 2 could be leading the rest of the group out of this mess of the last 6 months.

Stock futures are stronger this morning so we should have an up open. Energy is higher across the board as oil rebounds from yesterday's 3 dollar drop. No corporate news and no upgrades or downgrades.

Monday, January 07, 2008

The prior post is the reason why its so hard to trade. Buyers have arrived on the overall tape. MLPS off the lows and over 300 on the index. It has the feel of a short term bottom today.
30 minutes to go in this agony. The MLP index is at 299.99.
It just feels like another last hour implosion coming. Its been a tug of war all day long and the bulls are losing it here. Down 40. MLP index at 299.75 and dropping.
Dow selling off again down 25 points; mlp index back below 300!

Isn't that special!
Oneok (OKS) and Energy Transfer (ETP) are the 2 biggest drags on the MLP index which has been holding down about .75 but there are actually more MLPS and GP's up today than down. Markwest Energy (MWE) and Markwest Hydrocarbobn (MWP) are up 1 and some change and both are near 52 week highs! Sunoco Logistics (SXL) is up nearly 1 point and we have a number of fractional winners like Holly Partners (HEP) T C Pipelines (TCLP) Martin Midstream (MMLP) Willams Partners (WPZ) and Buckeye Holdings (BGH).

Joining the losers list with the above mentioned are DCP Midstream down 1. Breitburn (BBEP), Linn Energy (LINE) and Genesis (GEL) down major fractions.

In the strange trading department Boardwalk (BWP) is down about 50 cents since the news there. E V Partners opened up 2.54, then dropped to 31.33 and now sits near 32; flat on the day.

Oil is down nearly 3 dollars at around 95 bucks on recession worries. The overall market opened up 80; then was down 60 and looking into the abyss. Even the AG stocks were going down. Then it turned higher by 80 again. Now up just 17. Who knows.
Boardwalk Partners (BWP) showing shares for sale below Friday's closing price. No news but i'll check around. Maybe some priviate equity shares becoming available for sale?

Once upon there were 2 charts. One was an MLP chart
The other was a dow jones industrial chart

Each chart had its own little story to tell. The dow chart appears to be on the verge of a breakdown and wants to take everything else along with it on a bear road to decline. The mlp chart however resisted mightly, tracing out a triple bottom and a base formation, trying ever so hard to diverge from the mean dow chart. And then one day.......

How this story ends is going to depend on so many things. Certainly we have the 2000-02 bear market as an example where MLPS (at least the ones that were around at the time) moved higher during that period and substantially so while everything else imploded. However there are differences from then and now. First off we had interest rates that went to 1%...not happening in this rate cycle. Oil prices were low and rising. Oil is at record highs here and not showing any signs of breaking down. Gold was 300 now at 850, The dollar was certainly far stronger. And on and on and on. Last week's action on MLPS was actually okay in comparison to the rest of the market which right now sits on the August lows. There are positive divergences. The new lows list was a mile long on Friday but there were no mlps on it that i could find. Watch and see if the market rallies today what goes up. If mlps go up along with stock like Coca Cola, Proctor and Gamble and other things defensivc, the tape may be telling us something.

No news and no upgrades or downgrades so far.

Friday, January 04, 2008

The MLP index is down 3 points but i have to tell you it doesn't feel like it. Losses seem to be concentrated in Oneok(OKS), Plains(PAA), and Energy Transfer Partners (ETP). We actually have a few winners like Atlas Pipeline (APL) up 50 cents and Atlas Holdings (AHD) up 80 cents. Hiland (HLND) is up nearly 1 point. Markwest (MWE) is up a fraction. Buckeye Partners and Buckeye Holdings have been going back and forth and are up as of this posting.

Odd day really.
2 of the MLP index bigger weights Oneok (OKS) and Plains (PAA) are down 1 and change and probably make up a big chunk of the 2 point decline in the index. Kinder Morgan Partners (KMP) which is a heavyweight is up 25 cents. But you have that 200 point dow decline headwind and i suspect an ugly last hour is coming up. Certainly MLPS did better this week than the overall market so at least its relative outperformance. I noticed alot of defensive issues were higher today including the 5 point gain in the utility average so the tape is signaling recession.

Headwinds this morning from the hideous employment numbers (or lack thereof) which puts us in the face of a market headwind but i did notice that some of the more defensive issues this morning are higher which may (i want to emphasize may) put a bid under us. It does put a 50 basis point rate cut on the table again and the 10 year has dropped to a 3.82 yield. So we wait for the open. Crude oil at 99 bucks this morning and flat so my guess is another assault at 100 bucks at some point. Natural gas is lower this morning as the northeast goes out of the ice box today and heads into a seasonal blowtorch early next week with temps in the 60s.

No news this morning and no upgrades or downgrades. So lets bring on the open for what should be an interesting Friday.

Thursday, January 03, 2008

Nice gain today while the overall market does nothing. Oil broke 100 briefly before pulling back. Oneok LP (OKS) is up nearly 2. Sunoco Logistics (SXL) is up 1 and change and US Shipping is up 1 to 15. Nice move from 8 bucks in December. Up 2.45 and over 304 on the MLP the highs but holding on. Dow up 12 points as we move through the last hour.
MLP index up 2.25 to 304. My mlps are all still down but off their lows! Glory. Oneok LP (OKS) up neary 1 point and so is Martin Midstream (MMLP) Crosstex (XTXI) is a strong fractional winner and Kinder Morgan is up over 55. Targa (NGLS) and Constellation (CEP) are the biggest losers down 75 cents to 1 dollar.
The MLP index is up nicely by 1.40 and over 303; which makes that 310 breakout threat look like a possibility in the future. Kinder Morgan (KMP) is back over 55 and leads the winners list. And its worth noting that it is within 2 points of a 52 week high which is interesting. Energy Transfer (ETP) and Oneok LP (OKS) are also fractional winners. Buckeye Partners (BPL) has been unusually active the last 2 days up another 38 cents.

Short losers list. Basically everything i own!

After yesterday's mess in the overall market and with oil just a few ticks under 100 bucks this morning we can take some solace in the fact that the MLP index actually closed up yesterday. But i would be the first to point out that it was a handful of issues that drove the index higher and most mlps finished lower on the day.

Thought i'd put the dow chart up as well. The dow chart looks like it wants to break down below the August lows while the MLP chart looks like it is tracing out its bottom and wants to move higher. You won't sell me on that until we break above 310 but at least its trying to move in that direction.

Looks like the January effect took hold of a couple of issues yesterday Crosstex LP (XTEX) closed up 1 and change and Boardwalk Partners (BWP) closed up 1 point. Meanwhile on the other end of the tape we have Linn Energy (LINE) down nearly 1 and DCP Midstream (DPM) down 2.50. Linn may be reacting to oil near 100 and DCP had its January rally in the last week of December when it ran from 37 to 46. But one day does not a trend make and we'll wait until early next week to come to any conclusion.

Stock futures are a little higher this morning and oil futures overnight got to 99.98. I might...i have not decided yet...but i might go short the United States Oil Fund (USO) which is a proxy for crude or i may buy puts on it this morning. Just think that everyone and their mother is bullish on oil which makes me want to take the other side for a short term play. Meanwhile the idiots in the political world are caucusing in Iowa today. God help us all. BTW nothing makes me want to vomit more that John Edwards. He is the biggest example of a limo-liberal there is. Here is a guy who made millions as a lawyer and was working for a hedgefund. He then said he worked on the fund in order to study Wall Street's impact on the middle class...which makes this the most fabulous work-study program around.

No news among MLPS this morning and no upgrades or downgrades so far. Crude just ticked lower by 8 cents. Inventory numbers will be the play today.

Wednesday, January 02, 2008

100 dollar oil is on the minds of trades and that sent the dow to -220 and MLPS are now slightly lower as the market sell off has taken control. Off the lows now but not by much.

Boardwalk is up 1.05 and over 32 as it rallies off year end selling but Linn Energy is down 40 cents and Holly (HEP) down 1 and change. No rally off the year end selling for those least for now.

I would be hesitant to read too much into any move today and wait for 3 or 4 days of trading to come to some sort of conclusion about what to expect over the next few months.
Trying to work through some distortions that are dusting the tape. Some of it is unwinding of year end strategies which might be why DCP Midstream (DPM) is down 2.50 on no news. It had an 8+ point rally last week from 37 to nearly 46. Kinder Morgan (KMP) and Oneok (OKS) are up nearly 1 point each and account for a large chunk of the gain on the MLP index which is up .80 points. In the face of the dow down 160 is not bad really. Crosstex (XTEX) was sold down to 31 is now up 50 cents. Boardwalk Partnes (BWP) is another 80 cent winner.

Targa Resources (NGLS) is down 1 and change and Hiland (HLND) is down 1 as we look at the losers list. Atlas Resources (ATN) is down nearly 1 point. Holly (HEP) is down almost 1 as well.

Its not where they start but where they finish so with the down at 13100 and falling to the lows of the day, we are still up and thats something...not much but something.

Happy 2008 to all and by now any hangovers should have been taken care of. One year ago today we began a move on the MLP index which took us from just under 280 to just over 340 by July. And of course we know that since then we have been the throws of a 20% correction which has formed this fabulous triple bottom at 290 and we start the year just over 300.

Tax loss selling is done so that pressure has come off. Hedge fund selling is done as well for the most part unless there is some renagade fund out there that decided to wait until 2008 to unload. We have yield spreads at the highest end of a range that before has produced substatial rallies. We have a triple bottom in the chart. I won't be completely sold on the last one until we take out 310. So it looks like the wind is at our backs. Forever the optimist its time for some upside. What i will be more interested in is what happens to issues like Linn Energy (LINE) and a few others which took hits in December due to priviate equity shares coming to market after lock up periods expired. Those issues deserve to bounce and bounce quite hard. Also another tailwind will be the upcoming distribution announcements which will bring about another round of nice increases. It all looks good but in this tenuous market enviornment may mean nothing.

This morning we have no news and an empty upgrade downgrade list. Oil is over 98 bucks as we take a shot at 100 bucks again. Nat gas not doing much and btw weather in the US over the next 10 days resembles a blowtorch! A pattern switch to colder may come around mid month.

The first open of 2008 looms.