adbrite ads

Your Ad Here
Your Ad Here




Friday, November 30, 2007

MLP index approaching 299 and up nearly 4 points as we head into the last hour. K-Sea (KSP) is up 2. Copano (CPNO) and Williams (WPZ) are up nearly 2 points each. Targa Resources (NGLS) is a 1 point winner and so is Energy Transfer Partners (ETP).

Penn Virginia Holdings (PVG) is down 1.50 as the biggest loser. Most mlps that were lower earlier are off their lows.
Closing in on a 4 point gain here on the MLP index...hey we could take it over 300 if the last hour is firm! One of our posters has it exactly right. Money is flowing into t-bills. There is an absolute aversion to any risk. MLPS are priced like junk right now. Any signs of credit market stability will bring money back into this group.
MLPS extending gains here up 2.30 on the MLP index and back over 297. Oneok LP (OKS) is up 1 with a lengthening list of MLPS showing nice fractional gains. Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) and Energy Transfer Equity (ETE) are both strong up 75 cents to 1 dollar.

Holly Partners (HEP) is down 1, no news there.

Mlp index as i type is up nearly 2.50. End of month nonsense? Short covering? Who cares! Linn is approaching 27. All must be right with the world.
Well here is a switch. Usually by now MLPS would be selling off and heading into negative territory. Instead today we are seeing MLPS climbing and at the highs of the day; up 1.38! Some of yesterday's bigger losers are up. Buckeye (BPL) and Williams (WPZ) both up one point each. Hiland (HLND) and Markwest (MWP) are the biggest losers down major fractions.

Is it possible we are going to have a good day?

As if we didn't have enough supply coming on line already Buckeye Partners (BPL) is increasing its stock offering which explains the 3 dollar drop. Also Kinder Morgan Partners (KMP) is trading like a secondary is coming although i do not see a news release yet. Atlas Pipeline Partners (APL) has 27.5 million shares from priviate equity placements that become available for sale which may put some pressure on prices although it is not dilutive. Bottom line is more shares competing for dollars in the MLP space. However some MLPS seem to be moving away from their recent lows. Linn Energy (LINE) is back over 26 after seeing 23 and change last week. EV Partners (EVEP) which dropped to 30 and change Monday jumped nearly 3 points yesterday. Looks like the pressure has shifted to the big boys in the group and while we will probably be under pressure until year end with all the tax games being played eventually all of this will get discounted.

Its also no accident that MLPS have been in the toilet since late July and continues to remain near its August lows while the credit crisis has by most measures has moved back to its August peak. In fact last night on Kudlow and Company, Larry was showing charts of the TED spread and LIBOR and the commercial paper markets. As all those charts have returned to the August depths of the credit crunch, its no accident that the MLP index is reflecting the same thing. So i think that MLPS won't start moving higher until the banking system starts repairing itself. Perhaps this next rate cut will finally jump start all this. The dollar has been rallying on the back of the fed comments. Wayne Angel, former fed big cheese, made a point last night that rate cuts will help the dollar because the state of the markets now is preventing normal business from moving from point a to point b. He argued the dollar is rising because the fed has signaled that it will do what it has to do to repair the banking system. All food for thought here as we watch stocks rally while MLP's generally languish.

Stock futures are sharply higher this morning on Bernake last night indicating more cuts are coming and Oil futures are down 2 dollars this morning and under 90 bucks. Its an early morning post so no headlines so far.

Thursday, November 29, 2007

The MLP index closed down about 2 points near 295 but that move was distorted by Kinder Morgan (KMP) being down 1. Oneok LP (OKS) was down 1. Enbridge Energy Partners (EEP) was down nearly 2 and Buckeye Partners (BPL) was down 3. All these stocks are large components of the MLP index. Meanwhile a fair amount of MLPS closed higher and there were some nice moves. E V Partners (EVEP) which traded as low as 30.76 yesterday closed at 34.74 up nearly 3 points. Williams (WPZ) and Martin Midstream (MMLP) were both up 1 point. Fractional winners include Linn Energy (LINE) which is back over 26, Breitburn (BBEP) Constellation (CEP), Plains All American (PAA) and Copano (CPNO).

The action is still a bit discouraging overall but they seem to be coming off the relentless selling that some of these have endured lately. There is a sense that Oil may have toppped out after climbing to 95 this morning and selling off and closing down near 91. BTW Citigroup upped General Marine (GMR) to hold from a sell this morning.

That is the big story this morning as a pipeline in Minnesota that carries about 1/5th of the US oil from Canada blew up last night. It appears that this is the type of thing that will be repaired relatively quickly but the market is in shoot first ask questions later and has driven prices up 4 dollars in overnight markets. Not that these things ever happen at a good time but Enbridge holders just had their first distribution boost since the fall of Rome.

Meanwhile in a case of really good (or bad) timing Enbridge (EEP) announced a stock offering yesterday which sent the stock down in after hours by 2.48 to 50.94.

This could be one of those short term opportunities to pick up some cheap shares on a trade particularly if they throw them out the window this morning.

Meanwhile it wasn't until 2pm yesterday when MLPS where actually still down by 1 point on the index that prices turned around and we had an up close by 1 point (amazing!). There might be some catch up action at the open this morning but considering that nothing much has changed here in terms of the fundamentals...i.e. equity supply coming to market among other things, i remain skeptical on any rally. But the dow industrial chart below looks like we put in a short term bottom and we could work our way back to the top of the trading range which at least puts some support under prices.

Just a leftover news item from last night as Buckeye Partners (BPL) is sending 1.5 million shares to market in an offering. More supply kids.

Its an early post and there are no other corporate headlines so far this morning and no upgrades or downgrades but i will post headlines as they break.

Wednesday, November 28, 2007

At 2pm when the market was up 300 and MLPS were down and the index was at 294.93 i was pissed. But there must have been something in the "beige book" because it was at that point that MLPS turned around and began to rally. The index is now up 1 point and change and at the highs of the day! Hiland (HLND) and Atlas Resources (ATN) are each up between 1.50 and 2 dollars and are today's leaders. A number of MLPS which were lower earlier have either pulled even or are now higher.
Record earnings posted this morning for Inergy LP (NRGY,NRGP) which lately has done nothing to move MLPS, but maybe today will be different as we have firm markets and fed speak that is pointing to an interest rate cut on December 11th. Stock futures are sharply higher and even the dollar is rallying today so maybe..just maybe MLPS will move up with everything else today.
Genesis LP (GEL) is doing a stock offering of 7 million shares which only adds to the equity supply issue for MLPS. This news was out last night. No other news this morning. K-Sea (KSP) is getting a buy nod from Citigroup this morning.
Stock futures up 15 points and near the highs of the morning and the yen is approaching 110. Lets hope we get a kick in the ass this morning.

Tuesday, November 27, 2007

Sorry about the morning post. It took me hours to find an error that kept me from posting. That's why its out of order.
Bit of an odd day for MLPS today in that the index is down by just under 1 point. Its being dragged by a 50 cent loss in Enterprise Products Partners (EPD) which has a huge weighting in the index. That is being off set by the second biggest weight in the index; Kinder Morgan Partners (KMP) which is up 1.50 as Raaymond James upgrades the stock to an outperform. Buckeye Partners (BPL) Nustar Holdings (NSH) Sunoco Logistics (SXL) and Penn Virginia Holdings (PVG) are all down 1 point or more. Much of the group is showing fractional losses. So here we sit with the dow up over 200 points and even the bank stocks are up today...and MLPS can't get out of their own way.

A couple of things going on of note. One is the clear fact that we are following the market lower. Its hard to make any kind of headway when everything is imploding around you. If you are standing on the edge of a growing sinkhole eventually as that hole spreads it becomes very hard to keep from falling in. Pulling in the other direction is the yield spread to the 10 year which is getting close to 300 basis points which is on the extreme end of undervaluation. Insiders continue to add shares with open market purchases. Regency Partners (RGNC) joins that parade last night with this filing and this one and this one. Support just below at 290 on the MLP index but with stronger stock futures this morning, at least we have a higher open to watch the sellers sell into!

No corporate news this morning and no upgrades or downgrades.

Monday, November 26, 2007

Say goodbye to Friday's gains. Senator Schumer sending bond yields to new lows...down to 3.80% on the 10 year as Countrywide is possibly put into bankruptcy play. Down 150 on the dow. Not pretty.

BTW 275 is where a new 52 week low sits for the mlp index. Some mlps are already there.
Well we have only had 3 up days this month and baring a miracle today won't be 4. In fact the MLP index is sinking to the lows of the day and if the market implodes in the last hour we might even take out all of Friday's gain. Add Atlas Holdings (AHD) and Buckeye (BPL) to the 1 point losers list. All this while the 10 year rate implodes to 3.87%. So the bond market appears to be discounting the end of the world.
US Shipping(USS) holders getting some upside today on news that the distribution is not going to be cut. Stock is up over 2 dollars and is back over 11 bucks. Holly Partners (HEP) and Linn Energy (LINE) are both up major fractions. MLPS as a whole are a little lower with the index down .70 and off its low of the day. Willams (WPZ) Nustar (NSH) Hiland Holdings (HPGP) and Copano (CPNO) are down 1 point each among the biggest losers.

10 year is down to 3.93% which widens the MLP spread to over 260 points...the highest since December 2005.
We have a headline for US Shipping which has announced that it will pay its full distribution next quarter and if it has to it will suspend payment to the GP in order to meet its minimum distribution. Stock could be up sharply this morning.

Sure hope everyone's Thanksgiving Holiday was a good one. But now the long weekend is over and its back to work today. MLPS had a rare up day on Friday in the overall market low volume bounce. Still it was a 2 point up move on the index which has not had an up day of more than a tiny fraction in the last 3 weeks.

Shooting for a triple bottom in here and we remain grossly oversold so a snapback rally is in order. Whether its anything more than that depends on that dow chart below.

Last week we completed the second 10% correction in the last 6 months. So we are grossly oversold here as well. Stock futures are stronger this morning but off the highs.

Meanwhile we enter December which means tax loss selling along with more mlp supply so we do have obstacles out there. No news drivers this morning on the corporate side and no upgrades or downgrades on the board.

So lets bring on the open.

Friday, November 23, 2007

The day after. No news and no upgrades or downgrades in MLP land so take the day off and enjoy your self. Shop. Play. Take a nap. See you on Monday.

Wednesday, November 21, 2007

Market well off the lows as we try to rally em back before the close. The MLP index dropped to 295 and its off its lows as well. I don't know if my heart can bear it but there is a chance that Constellation Energy (CEP) which has been down 13 days in a row and Linn Energy (LINE) which has been selling off forever...could both finish up on the day as they are both down but small fractions!
I suppose we should just be thankful that the selling has to end today at the close because the market is closed tomorrow and Friday is a semi-holiday. An ugly morning with everything looking pretty hideous in stocks. MLPS will just get sold with everything else. But i will say that a hard down open is preferable then another one of those days where we sell hard into the close. Hard down opens have a chance of being a selling climax.
No news and no upgrades or downgrades this morning. Holly Partners(HEP) had news last night (see last night's post) which could be supportive but these days nothing works.
Blogging will be short today as we get ready for Thanksgiving.

Tuesday, November 20, 2007

Another down day in MLP land but we did finish off the lows again. We're down 12 of the last 14 days including 5 in a row. The selling appears to be exhausting itself and the chart looks like its making a triple bottom with another higher low. But given all the blowups out there i am very cautious about the concept of a bottom. Still we are due a nice up day at some point. God knows when that will be considering every higher open is met with more sellers.

Constellation Energy (CEP) meanwhile is now down for the 12th consecutive day and 14 of the last 15.

This stock is making its 3rd trip down to 31 in the last 5 months. If any MLP is due a bounce this one is...but again i hesitate given the current market conditions.

News after the close as Holly Partners (HEP) is getting assets from Holly Corp (HOC) at a price but they are immediately accretive to cash flow.

This has certainly been a very frustrating time for us since the July top. And you certainly have to feel bad for US Shipping (USS) holders who have seen their shares cut but nearly 60%. The stock dropped another 1.06 to 8.98 today and the yield is a whopping 17% which means to me that a 50% distribution cut is being priced into the stock. It is priced like an in the money call at this point but i think betting on this one is a pure speculative play at best. If you think these things can't go lower ask Stargas Holders (SGU) which saw their units go from 20 to a buck a few years ago and their distribution go to zero. No fun there as the units are at 3.79 today. You can be waiting a long time to get back to the flat line.

Linn Energy (LINE)is yielding 9% and has a going foward yield of 10.3% as share supply is hurting the stock and the feeling that the distribution hike to 2.52 next quarter ain't happening. I'm long this one so i guess we can just sit and wait to see how this plays out.

On the other hand with distributions most of us should be up for the year. Maybe once we get through tax loss selling in December we can have a nice January recovery rally. Hope always springs eternal. More fed eases are coming especially after the fannie and freddy disasters today. Yield spreads on the 10 year have gone from 85 basis points to 250 basis points which is the highest spread since December 2005 which was a bottom for MLPS. Lots to ponder in the days ahead.

But tomorrow is another day. Thursday is Thanksgiving. Friday is a semi-holiday so lets remember that we have much to be thankful for in our lives!
When the tape is like this you get the feeling that we'll never have another up close ever again.
Dow well off its high up only 15 points..MLPS have gone negative. ugh!

Sorry for the late morning post but not much happening today and getting ready for Thanksgiving. Noticing Constellation Energy (CEP) is going for its 11th straight down day. Inergy Holdings (NRGP) and Markwest (MWE) both down a point each leading the losers list. Meanwhile E V Partners (EVEP) and Natural Resource (NRP) both up a point each as they lead the winners list.

Got stuff to do so i will post when i can later today.

Monday, November 19, 2007

Down 1.37 on the mlp index...selling just continues. Lehman reiterates its outperform on Linn Energy and then apparently goes on about how negative things why re-iterate the outperform???? (thanks to Bruce in the comment section for details.) Makes no sense to me! Constellation (CEP) working on 11 down days in a row as its off 1 and change again. E V Partners (EVEP) is actually down by a nickle inspite of the asset purchase and the pre-announced distribution increase.

Factoiods website is on the blog roll to the side...or click here!. I forgot to re-link on this morning's post.
Magical question first. I spent some time this weekend...okay a lot of time this weekend on Factiod's website. It is a wealth of information on MLPS and no reader of this blog should do anything without looking there first. If you have questions about everything from DCF to CAGR you have to go there. If you don't know what dcf is you have to go there. Anyway i did notice that the MLP vs 10 year yield spread is now up to 250 which is where it was back in December 2005 which came after 6 months of declines and led to a nice rally in the beginning of 2006.

We have only seen 2 miniscule up days this month and the MLP index is down almost 5% since November 1st. The point spread angle tells me that we are getting close. But holding 290 is most important in my view.

Meanwhile they finally got around to selling down EV Partners last week and this morning some good news as they are buying some nat gas properties in West Virginia and they are pre-announcing a distribution boost to 2.40 annual. So that puts the going foward yield at a generous 7.5% based on a 32 dollar stock price. In the past going foward yields like this have been good entry points. But as we have seen with Linn Energy (LINE) that doesn't mean they can take the going foward yield to 10% if they want to.
No upgrades or downgrades so far. Oil is up a dollar this morning, natural gas is up about 2 cents. Stock futures are down this morning but not by too much. This is a holiday week which is usually bulllish for stock prices as a whole.

Friday, November 16, 2007

The list of one point plus losers just gets longer and longer...E V Partners (EVEP) is down 1.50 and under 32. Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP) and Alliance Resource Holdings (AHGP) both down over 1 point each. So is Sunoco Logistics (SXL) and Penn Virginia Holdings (PVG). The MLP index has broken below 298 and i think its time we face the fact that the index is going to 290. The overall market is now down 30 points on the dow and we are destined to break down below 13k and close at the weeks lows. Bear market continues.
Of course you don't really know if its a successful retest until after they have rallied away from their lows but some MLPS this week have come down to their August lows and are moving a way from those lows right now. Penn Virginia Holdings (PVG) is one of these as is DCP Midstream (DPM) is another. I am long both of these btw and have bought some more PVG. They never make it easy.
One thing i have noticed over the last week or 2 is that with the exception of Linn Energy (LINE) Calumet (CLMT) and a few others that have been doing offerings, a lot of these MLPS are down on relatively low volume. Now down is down no matter which way you look at it but it seems that buyers have just gone elsewhere or to just cash. When these buyers come back remains to be seen but they certainly won't come back if the overall market is shakey.

Constellation Energy (CEP) is down another 2 points and is down now for 10 days in a row. Crosstex Energy (XTEX) opened up 1 and is now down 1 and change and under 33. US Shipping is down 99 cents and is now sitting at just above 10 dollars. Market betting on a distribution cut here judging by the mega yield of 15%.

Legacy (LGCY) is up 60 cents among the group of winners which are showing small fractional gains.
Which has been the signature for awhile now. MLPS are a little lower but the overall market is now selling off although its nothing devestating. Early morning strength just keeps getting sold which is bearish. No news and no upgrades or downgrades. Posted some news and insider buys from last night...worth a read.

I'm going to take a break this morning. I will update later on.

Thursday, November 15, 2007

Some afterhours action today. First off both Markwest (MWE) and Markwest Hydrocarbon (MWP) were dollar plus winners today on news of a possible last minute bid from Targa Resources (NGLS). Still no specifics given. Also we have a slew of insider buys being reported with a 94,000 share purchase at Energy Transfer Equity (ETE). 2 directors made insider buys at Linn Energy. 5000 shares from one...and if i did the math right..4700 shares from the other.
Also a block insider purchase after the recent stock offering in Nustar (NS) plus another smaller purchase from a second insider.

Holly Partners and Plains All American are joining forces to build a pipeline in Utah. Holly upticked into the close..this could be the reason.

The MLP index did manage to rally off its lows to close down 89 ticks and finish just under 300. Still its another down close as we follow the market.
New lows on the day as we are under 299 on the index. Constellation (CEP) has come back to 33 from its lows down near 31.50. Not much volume in some of these sink holes we are seeing.

Dow down 110 as the Tuesday rally continues to unravel.
Figure i'd put up a chart of something that is actually working.

When your blog is getting ads for colonic irrigation you know things are bad! A tale of 2 extremes today. Constellation Energy Partners (CEP) is down 3 news and not a whole lot of volume. On the other side of this is Buckeye Holdings (BGH) which is up 1.79 on 81k news here either.

MLPS heading back to the lows of the day near 299 on the index. Overall market is down but the dow utility index is up. Commodities and oil are down. Frankly it looks to me stocks like Potash (POT), Terra Nitrogen (TNH), and some others look like they may have topped out.

More ugly charts! Constellation Partners (CEP) is now down 9 days in a row and below its August low. The MLP index is just as bad...having managed only 2 tiny up days out of the last 11. And it is becoming very demoralizing that we just continue to sink toward the August lows.Of course things are always at their ugliest before the turn but it is a real mess out there.
Both Markwests are up nicely today (MWP,MWE) as Targa Resources (NGLS) has proposed buying out both of them. Still no other details. Amerigas (APU) is down 1.50 on a Wachovia downgrade to market perform. Suburban Propane (SPH) is down 2.50 on earnings which the market apparently doesn't like.
The MLP index is off its low down 1 point at 299.50. Wake me up if their is a rally.

Short open post this morning. Someone posted the question about whether the MLP index is adjusted for distributions. Looks like it was this morning as the index is trading under yesterday's close but is listed as higher by my quote service. Maybe they do it on payout day all at once. I'll find out. Meanwhile an odd piece of news this morning as Targa Resources (NGLS) is offering to buy Markwest Energy (MWE) and Markwest Hydrocarbon (MWP) although no price was given and they said the company has not responded to them. Headlines on this one as they break.

I'll post again later this morning.

Wednesday, November 14, 2007

OMG...Linn Energy (LINE) is up.

Since it is ugly chart day...take a look at this catastrophy. Calumet Specialty Products (CLMT) is down 15 out of the last 16 days! The selling here has been unrelenting since the company posted earnings and a warning that high crude prices continue to have impact. Also on the way down the company did an offering of shares providing more supply which only hurt it even more. You are in a catching a falling knife zone here.

Many MLP distributions arrive in accounts today so enjoy your cash. MLPS opened higher on the index and as has been the case recently...sold off and is now off but by only a small fraction. Hiland LP (HLND) is up 1. Amerigas (APU) Penn Virginia Holdings (PVG) and Penn Virginia Resources (PVR) are all up major fractions.

Calumet (CLMT) is down another buch and a quarter. Buckeye Partners (BPL) is down 1 and is the biggest loser. Constellation (CEP) Encore (ENP) Nustar (NS) Plains All American (PAA) among others..fractional losers.

Regency Partners puts up earnings numbers this morning and Amerigas (APU) puts up record numbers and confirms guidance. PPI and retail sales market friendly. Stocks higher.

At least is seems that way. For example, about the best thing we can say about the Linn Energy (LINE) chart is that we just came down and filled a gap left open late last year. Otherwise its deeply oversold...which btw doesn't mean it can't get more oversold. We seem to be getting this one point plus down days which get relieved by rallies in the last half hour which bring it back about half to three quarters of the way back. Going foward yield is approaching 10% which means either the market feels the distribution hike is not going to happen or this is a buying opportunity. I tend to think that this is about supply. I noticed yesterday 2 blocks of shares crossed...100,000 and 50,000 around 2pm. So it seems we still have some big holders selling shares as restricted holders see their shares available for sale. At some point this has got to bottom and a snapback rally will come fast and furious. Just don't ask me when because frankly i have no idea.

Meanwhile we have the mlp index chart which is no bargain either. We were lucky enough to rally back to a very small up day. We just seem to be under pressure as company after company brings on a new supply of shares...Nustar being the latest as it priced its offering yesterday.

We're oversold here as well so a snapback rally is in order at some point but i continue to wonder whether we need to take a trip back down again to that 290 area to put in a triple bottom. But that means we have to sweat out a break of that level and i would rather not have to do that. I'm sure the market exists to accomodate me!

Earnigns news this morning from Eagle Rock which released at 4am! Also the company announces that its treating plant needs to go down for maintanence for about 3 weeks but that it should not have any impact on its proposed distribution increase next quarter. Also Targa Resources (NGLS) posted earnings this morning. Encore Partners (ENP) is getting an upgrade from UBS which takes it from neutral to buy.

Crude oil is rallying this morning after dropping down to near 90 bucks yesterday intraday. Stock futures have turned lower this morning as we wait for ppi at 8:30 which is expected to be a hot number. My initial impression of yesterdays 300 point dow rally is that it was a long overdue snapback rally. Follow through is required if this is not going to be a one day wonder. We'll know soon enough if the August lows need to be revisited and if they are...expect MLPS to do the same.

Tuesday, November 13, 2007

I am beginning to wonder whether we may have to go back to 290 and retest the lows or perhaps we may be setting up to break down below those levels. We're down 8 out of the last 9 days...we go down when the market is down...we go down when oil is up...we go down when oil is down...we go down when the market is up. There really aren't many combinations left. Yield spreads are getting stretched now in the other direction. We're down near 300 even and at the lows of the day.

Penn Virginia Resources (PVR) Holdings (HPGP) Nustar (NS) Sunoco Logistics (SXL) and Linn Energy (LINE) all down around 1 point or more. Alot of other minus signs as most mlps down fractions.

Not may winners...just a few fractional gainers like Martin Midstream (MMLP) Oneok LP (OKS) and EV Partners (EVEP). 300 still holding at this time but barely.

Getting very demoralizing out there.

The MLP index has at least diverged with the dow as we are still 12 points above the August lows. We're up at the open this morning along with everything else. But there is still the problem with supply. Nustar is doing an offering of shares so that puts pressure on that stock price which is down 1 dollar this morning. Merrill Lynch downgrades the stock to a sell from a hold...don't see sell ratings too often on stocks. Eagle Rock Partners (EROC) will be putting up earnings after the close today.

Inergy Holdings (NRGP) is up nearly 3 dollars this morning as today's big winner. Encore Partners (ENP) up 1 and change and so is EV Partners (EVEP) and Hiland (HLND). Calumet is down another 50 cents and K-SEA (KSP) down over a point as the biggest loser.

Monday, November 12, 2007

For you Linn Energy bulls and bears when it was all said and lost 42 cents....duh for both sides!
MLPS at the low of the day with the index just above 301. The tape looks and feels hideous. And while the focus of attention today has been on Linn Energy (LINE) there are other MLPS out there getting hit and some are getting close to their August lows. Still there are some winners out there. Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP) is up 1 news. Calumet (CLMT) and Penn Virginia Resources (PVG) continue to be the biggest losers down 1.25 or more.
MLPS are lower this afternoon. Linn Energy(LINE) is back to the lows of the day....down nearly 2 points. Calumet Specialty Products (CLMT) getting hit hard; down over 2 points. This one has been almost straight down since earnings and since it said that high oil prices are hurting results.
Atlas Resource (ATN) is down 1 as is Hiland (HLND)

Terra Nitrogen (TNH) is down 12 as it gets nailed along with anything commodity driven...the GP Terra (TRA) is down nearly 4.

Suburban Propane (SPH) is up over 1 point and leads a small list of winners. Buckeye Partners (BPL) Copano (CPNO) and DCP Midstream (DPM) are nice fractional winners.
Linn Energy (LINE) off the lows and down less than 1 now...MLPS have turned mixed to slightly higher.
Well clearly the Linn numbers are not being well recieved as the stock is down nearly 2 dollars; and it doesn't help that anything that is involved in commodities is getting its head handed to them today. MLPS are down .70 on the index as we struggle above 300. Eagle Rock (EROC) Nustar (NS), Teppco (TPP), Copano (CPNO) Penn Virginia Holdings (PVG) and Sunoco Logistics (SXL) among the few winners.

Encore Energy Partners (ENP) which is a relatively new issue is down 1 and change. Atlas Resource (ATN) Inergy Holdings (NRGP) among others losing fractions to a point.

Overall market trying to hold here...oil down 2.50 at this stage of the game.

We will get an answer shortly as to what Linn Energy's earnings mean when the market opens. Friday's earnings have brought on lots of discussion, ideas, and even some name calling as apparently i'm a simpleton. (And btw its WX-man...i am not a wax man! WX is short for weather). Well its only 100 shares but someone bought it 66 cents above Friday's close. Conference call for Linn is scheduled for 9am. Can't live blog it but if someone out there hears it and wants to post details and highlights of it please do by all means in the comments section.

Wachovia says its upgrading Copano (CPNO) to outperform from market perform which in this market may mean that it will be down less than everything else. Still and upgrade is an upgrade. Nothing else on the list this morning and no corporate headlines.

Crude is down 1.40 this morning on hints that supply may be coming from those saints known as OPEC. 10 year is sitting at 4.25. Stock futures are flat to a few ticks higher. So standby for the Linn verdict. By the way i did some rare sunday posts so you may want to scroll down.

Sunday, November 11, 2007


Lots of chatter about Linn Energy's earnings as to what the numbers mean. The initial reaction is to look at the earnings or lack there of and react negatively. But remember this is a MLP and the important number is DCF (distributable cash flow). Also some people are jumping on the hedging losses. These are marked to market numbers out to 2012. These are non cash charges! Say for example i own a stock and long term put to protect it. The stock price rises and the put declines but still has value. On paper i would say that the put is worth zero even though it actually has some value. When the put does expire i would have already written down the loss of the insurance and retain the asset which has appreciated in value. Or say the asset declines in value next year and the put appreciates i can exercise that put on the asset which gives me the higher price and then take the profit. That is why it is considered a non cash loss and has no impact on EBITDA, DCF, and everything else going foward.

I guess the bottom line is what happens tomorrow when the stock opens. Frankly if the numbers were really bad would they have re-iterated the 63 cent distribtution which is a 6 cent increase from this quarter? I don't think so. The stock is trading at an 8.4% yield and a going foward yield of 9.2%. or nearly 5 points above the 10 year rate. A price of 35 brings the yield down to 7.2% going foward and brings it more in line with companies that are growing distributions. The only thing negative in my view is that the overall market enviornment just sucks.

Btw i forgot to post about this but Devon Energy (DVN) in their earnings report last week announced that it will not be going foward with an MLP ipo of assets citing market conditions and the fact that it was no longer advantageous for them to do it. At least that means less stock supply coming on.

Saturday, November 10, 2007

Okay so my friend Dave calls me yesterday to let me know that my horse Farleyshelonwheels was running today at Aqueduct. I had no idea. He ran a great second today and we may be headed to my first stakes race in a couple of weeks. I play the pick 6 and hit 5 of 6. The one race i miss is the 8th race...and the name of the horse that won the 8th race....Dave! Sometimes heaven sends you a sign but you don't always see it. So instead of coming home with 20 grand and a taxable event...i come home with 54 dollars.

Friday, November 09, 2007

When the tape gets like this you want to just shut the tv off and walk away from the computer. At 302 and at the lows of the day down over 2 points. Nustar (NS) which was down nearly 2 yesterday down another 1 and change to day. Calumet Specialty Products (CLMT) has been in the dog house ever since they told us that the high price of oil was hurting their business. Its down 1 and change to just under 42 which brings it back to midway in its trading range this year ( 55-31). Plains All American (PAA) and Hiland Holdings (HPGP) are both down 1 point each. US Shipping (USS) is down another 75 cents after losing 6 points over the last 2 days.

Few winners like Eagle Rock (EROC) Atlas Pipeline Partners (APL) and one or 2 others showing gains of small fractions.

Friday afternoon..13018 the days low...we're 100 points above that right now. If i had to bet it would be for a close under 13K but i've been known to be wrong before.

Which is about the only way we can look at this. MLPS as based on the index is now clearly back below the breakout point and is now in some sort of sideways consolidation which given everything else that is going not bad and in the longer term perspective we are getting some nice prices out there for many of these.

Meanwhile the Dow Industrials clearly wants to head back to the August lows here as it has broken below 13,500 and is taking aim at 13000 today. Futures are lower this morning but off the lows of yesterday. And remember its Friday!

Of course there are sinkholes among this group and US Shipping (USS) hit a big air pocket ever since the company indicated there was the possibility of a distribution cut next quarter. So 6 points lower and a nearly 15% yield can be speculatively tempting but the market is pricing a distribution cut of as much as 50% here. This is nothing but a dice roll in my view...and for now i am content to play around in other playgrounds.

This morning is quiet news wise. Look for earnings after the close today from Linn Energy (LINE) where we will at least get a view of whether the company hedged correctly this time around. No upgrades or downgrades on the board.

Thursday, November 08, 2007


As a rule i do not like up opens after big sell-offs. I would rather they take em down a couple of hundred points and wash out all the sellers instead of risking sellers coming in and selling into the rally. MLPS remain tied to the market with an umbilical cord. I wonder whether all this selling in financial stocks might put our group in the front of the line for money if a flight to quality occurs. I certainly would rather be in any one of a dozen MLP's then say Citigroup for example.

Some items from yesterday and last night. US Shipping (USS) was down hard to 16 bucks a share and yields a whopping 11% as the company announced earnings and indicated the possibilty that the distribution was at risk. Shareholders decided to shoot first and ask questions later. Also check out the comments section from yesterday for more info. Eagle Rock Partners (EROC) is giving unitholders a 0.005 increase (love those half cent hikes) and promised a 2.5 cent hike next time around. Should put a floor under the stock today.

This morning we have earnings frmo Constellation Energy Partners (CEP) which look good. Also numbers from Crosstex LP (XTEX) and Legacy Partners (LGCY) who btw also did a private placement. Global Partners(GLP) puts up its quarterly numbers as well. Finally Genesis LP (GEL) posted its quarterly results.

No upgrades or downgrades this morning so far. Crude is a little higher this morning but below 100 bucks. Another interesting day ahead so fasten your seat belts.

Wednesday, November 07, 2007

Dow down 254 and off the lows...broke under 13400. The MLP index is now down 2 points as it can't hold on as everything is down today...except for Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan (POT) which is one of my favorite named stocks! Oil down to 95 and off 1.62 as of this posting.
All the attention is on oil. I bought some USO November 70 puts at 50 cents...just a casino speculation on my part. Meanwhile the MLP index is fractionally lower while the market heads toward the lows of the day at minus 160 on the dow. Both Nustars (NS,NSH) are up over a point. So are both Markwest's (MWE,MWP). Nustar chairman was on CNBC this morning. I missed the interview. Check out their website. I could not find it. And it always seems to me anytime i want to access the website i can't get in.

Calumet (CLMT) and Hiland (HLND) along with Sunoco Logistics (SXL) lead the losers list down 1 point or more each.

Linn Energy(LINE) is up 40 cents right now and has had runs back to near 29 a couple of times so far today. Looks like some short covering beginning here.

Down 200 and under 13,500 again...i am wondering whether we may see a breakdown late in the day.

Other than those three things everything else is fine this morning! So enjoy your breakfast! My wife is making fresh biscuits! So before i worry about whatever awaits MLPS today...its coffee and a good breakfast.

The MLP chart above continues to display indecisiveness as it sort of straddles along the moving averages. This is going on as the dow industrials continue to fight to hold 13500 and we will at least retest that this morning at the open.

Meanwhile Oil nears 100 dollars and below is the US Oil ETF which trades and also trades puts and calls. I am going to be tempted this morning to buy puts here if Crude hits 100 dollars on the inventory numbers. I just wonder if this has been all baked into the cake already and that this market is ripe for a severe correction that could take the USO at least down to its 34 day moving average which is sitting near 67. This is a speculative play on my part and by no means am i recommending it.

But there is so much attention and so much a feeling of inevitability here as oil soars to the sky. It may be time to look to the other side of the trade. Again not for the faint of heart .

Late yesterday Calumet Specialty Products (CLMT) put out earnings and notice that they are being impacted by high crude oil. Those of you who are looking for a quick trade might put this one on the radar screen for when oil tops out. Also Linn Energy (LINE) will be coming out with earnings after the close Friday so we may see some attempt at short covering ahead of the number unless of course the overall market is dominating the news.

Earnings are out this morning on Nustar GP (NSH) and also numbers on Spectra Energy Partners (SEP). Also Nustar is buying up some CITGO assets. Nothing so far on the upgrade downgrade list.

Tuesday, November 06, 2007

Sorry for the lack of posts today but i had my hands full. Lots of earnings after the close from Martin Midstream, Copano and Magellan Midstream which released numbers earlier today. All available on one link.

Up close today by a small fraction on the MLP index. If the market has made a short term bottom usually MLPS move on the second day of the rally so we'll wait for tomorrow.

More ex-distributions today but MLPS should be able to move higher with the overall market at least at the open. And Nustar holders have lots to be happy about as the company does a 7 cent distribution boost to 98.5 cents. Stock goes ex-distribution today. In the news this morning Energy Transfer Equity (ETE) is filing a prospectus as certain holders may be selling their shares. They join a rather long list of companies that have been doing this as year end approaches. Linn Energy (LINE) holders know this all too well. Might put some short term pressure on ETE until the deal is done.

No upgrades or downgrades this morning and no other news to speak of. Oil is up 2 dollars at 96 and change. 100 dollars oil continues to loom large and heating oil futures yesterday hit record highs. Stock up on firewood but i have to tell you that if there were firewood futures they would be at record highs as well!

Monday, November 05, 2007

Some positive divergences in the stock with respect to RSI and volume. RSI is making a higher low and volume is contracting on this trip back to the October 3rd low. There is always hope!
Well when you look at this in total...with everything that is being thrown at the market these past few weeks...and we're down all of 60 points today. The MLP index is down 2 and change but off the lows. And it has had a habit of coming back in the final hour so we'll hold judgement until days end.

Meanwhile Nustar Holdings (NSH) Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP) Inergy Partners (NRGY) Holly Partners (HEP) and Williams Partners (WPZ) all down 1 to 2 points. Natural Resource (NRP) Eagle Rock (EROC) Buckeye (BPL) and General Marine (GMR) and a few others are down major fractions.

Hiland LP (HLND) is up 1. DCP Midstream is up 64 cents and Constellation (CEP) is up 57 cents and both are ex- distribution....which is nice. Those 2 are among a small list of winners.

Linn Energy is down 4 cents and off the lows as of this posting on shrinking volume. That could mean that we may be finally running out of sellers. Or they could be just taking a break. It can't go down forever. Also an insider is stepping up to the plate and has done an open market buy at Boardwalk Partners (BWP). and THIS JUST IN...another insider has done some at the market buys at Boardwalk.
Monday morning of a new week that is going to start on a down note overall. Ex-distributions continue today with the Atlas Pipeline (APL) family (AHD,ATN) DCP Midstream (DPM) and others going off the board. But Atlas Pipeline (APL) holders will get a bit of a boost this morning as Wachovia is upgrading the stock to a buy from a hold. Goldman also on the horn this morning upgrading Enterprise Holdings (EPE) from a sell to a hold. It should help on a morning where futures are down over 100 points on the dow.

Nothing else going on this morning in the news department. Pressure on stocks driving oil down nearly 2 dollars this morning and natural gas is down 33 cents to just above 8 dollars. So i guess we'll let the open work itself through. We'll be at Friday's lows at the start and see where it takes us from there.

Friday, November 02, 2007

Nice comeback in the last 30 minutes. MLPS closed above 310 and down less than 1 point..the dow closed higher and 13500 held.

Linn Energy (LINE) continues to bleed as the stock at 28 now yields a whopping 9% going foward or 4.61 points above the 10 year. So either this is the biggest buying opportunity of the year as the stock is grossly undervalued or the market is telling us that the 2.52 pre announced distribution ain't going to happen. Or perhaps Linn is getting hit as oil continues to reach for 100 bucks. Maybe some people think they didn't hedge correctly. Or maybe all the new shares are getting sold. Truly i have no clue.

Also BBEP down hard today on completion of the quicksilver purchase. Maybe the same problem here. EVEP finally sold off today as it catches up to other MLPS. This one was up on the week and above 38 before today's profit taking.

Have a good weekend.

Dow chart in a very important place here. Looks like a break here takes us to 13,100 rather quickly. The mlp index is holding up better but we're at the lows of the day here.

Some big losses today in EV Partners(EVEP), Brietburn (BBEP) Plains All American (PAA) and Hiland (HLND); all down about 2 points each. Oneok LP (OKS) is up 1 as they continue to benefit from the good earnings and guidance.

Looks like the last hour could see an implosion. Who wants to be long on a Friday?

Lets begin this morning with a tale of 2 charts. Both charts have been going nowhere fast.

And then one day one of those companies decided to raise the distribution for the first time since since the century turned the corner and then got an upgrade from the good fairy at RBC who proclaimed that Enbridge shall be a "sector perform" The other raised its distribution as well but made a stock offering of 6 million shares. Investors in the first company lept for joy and there was dancing in the streets. Investors in the second however remain in despair as the stock continues to go nowhere fast. So the moral of the story is Enbridge may be the play going foward as they promise more increases while Boardwalk remains in the land of dead money for awhile.

Considering the damage in the overall market yesterday MLPS held up a bit better and closed above the days lows. Exterran Holdings (EXLP) puts up earnings this morning. And Enterprise GP Holdings (EPE) gets an upgrade this morning to outperform from market perform thanks to the boys from Morgan Keegan.

Crude oil is up this morning by over 1 dollar. Nat gas which has been hot lately seeing some profit taking this morning in the pre-market. Stock futures were flat ahead of the employment numbers have taken a turn for the better as the numbers were better than expected.

Thursday, November 01, 2007


Sorry for the late first post but i had an early doctors appointment. MLPs were down 3 points on the index at their worst but now we're down just 1.60. The chart continues to look constructive as we are beginning to see the moving averages cross over which is bullish.

Penn Virginia Holdings (PVG) saw a 2 point drop at the close yesterday for no particular reason and now we're back up 1.25 to 34...getting back half the loss. Williams Partners is down 1 and change as it posts earnings. It is also buying assets.

We seem to be holding our own in here. Anyway it could be could be in Citigroup.