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Monday, October 31, 2011

Markets are down 140 on the dow and MLPS are down 2 points on the day. Most mlps are lower but there are a few exceptions. Nustar (NS) is up nearly 1 as it benefits from last week's better than expected earnings and outlook. It has been a chronic underperformer. And Sunoco Logistics (SXL) is up as it edges back toward 100 bucks. Otherwise its down across the mlp tape.

Reality is setting in that Europe has not even come close to solving its problems.

Sunday, October 30, 2011


Its the last day of an amazing month where we were staring into the abyss on October 4th and since then the MLP index is up 17 out of the last 19 days. We are back to 375 where there is some resistence on the chart and just another 5% or so to 390 which is where the index hit an all time high back a few months ago. And below we have the dow chart on its unrelenting move higher from the October 4th low and we sit now looking at the highs of the year not too far out of reach.

And yet the rally from the standpoint of volume has been very sub standard. And the move of last Thursday looked and felt like an exhaustion spike higher. So many ways one can look at this and call it a rally with holes in it. But in the end its about price. Nothing else really matters. So until proven otherwise, the market seems to want to go up.

Since all of this climaxed with the euro-deal there is some interesting stories about why it won't work. In fact this piece addresses something that i have wondered about. Suppose the banks change their mind and decide its in the best interest of share holders to cause a "credit event" rather than go along with politicians. And Europe won't get a dime of money from China unless they guarantee that China be paid first in a default scenario. Can u imagine trying to sell that to your voters let alone European bond holders? And im no fan of George Soros but he thinks the banks may back out of the deal in short order and be paid rather than take the haircut.

Overnight we had currency intervention by the Japanese to weaken the yen and it has sent the dollar soaring against the yen and the euro. Euro markets open down 1-2% as they follow the euro and the notion that the deal struck last week could unravel. Stock futures here are reacting to that and the death of MF Global as the NY Fed has pretty much shut it down. Not a Lehman moment but you have wonder what else is out there (2008 anyone?).

MLPS this morning are probably going to open down following the tape. News this morning includes earnings from Boardwalk Partners (BWP) which includes a distribution boost. Baird is cutting Legacy Reserves (LGCY) and Genesis (GEL) to market perform based on valuation. No other the news on the tape this morning.

Its the last day of the month which started with us standing over the abyss and ends with the biggest monthly rally since January 1974. One needs to be reminded that the market from there went into a steep decline which did not hit bottom until October of 1974.
The question is whether history (which doesn't repeat exactly the same way)is set to rhyme again.

Wednesday, October 26, 2011

After a sharply higher open the market is selling off. The nasdaq is down. The dow is up 86 and the S&P is just up 2. The mlp index is up 2 but off its highs.
You don't often see stocks double on news but Cheniere(LNG) is almost there up over 4 dollars to 10 and change on this huge deal with BG Group.

Futures ticking higher ahead of the open.

If you want to follow what is going on at the European Summit click here for a live blog thanks to the Financial Times of London (registration required by FT). You really get a good sense of what is really happening there by reporters in Brussells and Berlin. And notice btw that we won't know anything until the press conference which of course is after dinner. Honestly these people would make a great circus.

Some news for Cheniere Energy (LNG) which is up 3 dollars or over 50% as they sign a big deal with BG Group. Don't have a news link but its a 410 million dollar LNG deal. That 2 dollar move is a 33% gain. Also this morning we have RBC raising the target on Sunoco Logistics (SXL) to 108 bucks. No pre market trading there. No other news on the tape and no other upgrades or downgrades. Stock futures are higher and in that pre Europe press conference holding pattern. Crude is now down on the morning after ticking higher. Interest rates are flat and gold is a little higher.

My guess is not much happens until we get the Euro outcome and unless we get some sort of mega deal, the market sells off on the news.

Tuesday, October 25, 2011


11 up days in a row is a pretty extreme move and since we're not getting to 1000 by the end of next week, it should be no surprise that sometimes in the new casino, it comes up red instead of black. So we are down about 1.50 on the mlp index which btw is above all its support lines and is closer to its all time high than its recent trading low.

The dow hit the same wall as we have terrible economic numbers from Richmond fed and consumer confidence. And of course the moment of truth arrives for Europe with another silly meeting tomorrow with lots of silly people. Markets are nervous that there is a deal or there is no deal or if there is a deal its meaningless. Enjoy the ride because in the end Europe will do what it does best and that is why put off until tomorrow what you can do months or years from now...maybe.

MLPS are holding up for their usual reasons including the fact that oil and nat gas are up today even though the tape and the euro are weak. At the lows the dow was off off 85. The mlp index is 2 points off its lows of the day. Markwest (MWE) is doing an offering of senior notes. The stock is down fractionally. Regency Partners (RGNC) raises its payout to 45.5 cents. The stock is down 15 cents. And we have UBS cutting its price target on Martin Midstream (MMLP) from 39 to 36 bucks. The stock is down 10 cents.

So the trading continues and given all the headline risk, it wouldn't surprise me at all if we are up 200 points by the end of the day.

Monday, October 24, 2011

MLPS have extended their gains thanks to Kinder Morgan (KMP) announcing a new purchase that is accretive. The stock is up 1 and change and at new all time highs. The dow is off the highs up 78 points as of this post and of course guess who covered his short with the dow up 110? Sunoco Logistics (SXL) hit 100 at the high of the day. Its still up but has pulled back off the high.

Any bets that now that im no longer short that the market is down at the end of the day?
Its a wonderful feeling being on the other side of the biggest rally the market has seen since the bear market bottom. Up 1500 points in pretty much a straight line. Kind of figures that on Oct 3 2008 the S&P closed at 1099 and then proceeded to drop to 899 in 10 days. This time the reverse has occured as the S&P has rallied from 1080 to 1250. It feels like someone has their arm down your throat and into your stomach and then proceeds to pull it upward to drag it outside your mouth. The pain is too much for me. I could not have been more wrong.

MLPS continue their march higher for the 11th consecutive day up over 3 points. Sunoco Logistics (SXL) is one buy away from 100 up 2.45 and the days biggest winner in the group. Dow up just shy of 100 points on the dream that Europe will solve their problems.

I need a vacation.
Some breaking news as Plains All American (PAA) is offering 24 bucks a share for Semagroup (SEMG) which is impact Plains Natural Gas Storage (PNG) which is up 2.41 in the pre market.

Futures continue to pull either side of the flat line.
BTW for those of you interested there is a live blog of the Europe mess courtesy of the Guardian. There is a lot of interesting stuff here including all the behind closed doors catty-ness of some of the grown-ups in the room.

Is anyone really surprised by the fact that we are still sitting here waiting for Europe to come up with their plan, or the plan to come out with a plan, or the inevitable kicking of the can down the road. This is coming Wednesday, or Thursday, or something. Greece is unraveling this morning as their banks edge closer to zero. Euro markets are a little lower after being higher earlier after Friday's "stay of execution" rally. Meanwhile the dow continues on its unrelenting rally that began on October 4th. Paul Krugman has a very good blog piece this morning about what is happening there. Bank Of America/Merrill issued a warning over the weekend that another US downgrade is coming in a few weeks. All of this seems to be coming to a head here as the 2 dow charts that follow indicate.

Now you may be asking why did you put the same dow chart up twice? (go ahead...say it out loud!). Well if you look very carefully they are not exactly the same. I wanted to put up all the relevant moving averages to point out that Friday's action has us not only just above the very top of the recent range, but the moving averages that i use (fibonacci of course) are all converging on each other. BTW I included the 100 day moving average which is not a fibonacci number but is used by some market players. And i also use expotential moving averages rather than the simple moving average. Everything is folding on top of each other. If we go down from here in a big way i will predict that it will be at least twice as fast as the trip up. And it all hinges on Europe and whether their entire system unravels.

And through all of this we have had a terrific mlp rally from the low down at 320 on 10/4/2011. Since then we are up 10 days in a row and 12 of the last 13. Friday's gain was just 2 points on the index as attention shifted elsewhere. Last Monday we had that Kinder Morgan/El Paso deal which impacted the LPS of both companies. No such deal this morning. I want to go back to Friday where Crosstex Energy (XTEX,XTXI) did not hike their payouts which caused both stocks to lose ground. As is always the case in this group payouts are really the only important driver and you better raise them otherwise investors will move elsewhere. We have no news this morning of consequence so far and no upgrades or downgrades.

Stock futures were up, then down, now up as we get moved around by Europe. The market continues to trade pretty much tick for tick with the Dax and the Euro. Oil is up a little as is nat gas. Bonds are rallying a few ticks higher as well.

BTW for those of you interested my market short position is still intact and is getting excruciatingly painful to hold. I know the minute i give up will mark the end of the rally. I've held on this far i might as well wait until Wednesday. I still think the Europeans will do what they do best in the end and that is they will do nothing other than sip espressos while Greece defaults and the contagion spreads to Italy and Spain. If this problem really were on the way to being solved would we see the 10 year under 2.20% and the German Bund near 2%?

Thursday, October 20, 2011

I sort of get the fact that in this type of market enviornment, every sneeze and every burp by someone of importance is going to cause swings of a 100 points but really??? The dow was down 100 points and the Nasdaq staring into the abyss of minus 40 when we get a report that Sarkozy and Merkel are going to have a conference call and boom we're up 25 points on the Dow. How ridiculous is all this? Well i will say that we are setting up for a huge move of 1000 dow points one way or the other, that it will occur in a big hurry, and it will happen soon. I just wish i knew which way! The bond market i believe is telling is that there will be no resolution especially German Bunds which are back under 2% again.

MLPS moving with the tape. They were down with everything else after an up open. Nausea enduced tape action all the way around.
Just like yesterday every time CNBC goes live to Greece, the dollar gains against the Euro and markets tail off a bit. The Dow and S&P are just a few ticks higher while the nasdaq is lower. The vix is hovering just under 35. The mlp index is going for nine in a row up 1.60 right now. Sunoco Logistics (SXL) is on PAR WATCH as its asking 97. Global Partners (GLP) is up 1.30 as the days biggest gainer. A few fractional losers but nothing of real consequence. Otherwise its all Europe all the time.
BTW 1190 on the S&P 500 is the low on the week so it could get ugly if that goes.

The charts are expressing the frustration of traders everywhere as we have been in this 1000 point trading range that has held up since August. We are getting moves that normally take six months or a year to play out in a matter of days. And we are moving with every headline that comes out from overseas. Something happened in Germany at 9am as the Dax Index suddenly sold off hard. Reports are circulating that Europe may cancel their weekend meeting. And our futures which were up have come back to dead even. And here we have alternated between gains and losses for the last 10 days.

Lets see if we can gather clues from other charts. The 10 year appears to have at least temporarily bottomed at 1.70 and if you want to use your imagination we have what looks like an inverted head and shoulders bottom. But chart patterns are always evolving and the pattern usually isn't obvious until its long been completed. And what use is that? Better for clues might be what the Volatility index is telling us. Notice that the VIX dropped to 28 on the first trip to 11,640 but yesterday intraday at the same level we were near 33 and closed at 34. So the VIX might be signalling some trouble is coming.

And the dow chart is at a place where the market has sold off hard before but we need to break below that 34 day moving average which is at 11,304 right now. And meanwhile MLPS continue to live in their own little world as we are up 8 days in a row and 9 out of the last 10. We are above 360 as pipelines have become all the rage. And pipelines that yield over 6% are seeing money flows.
But its all about Europe and if reports are true that Germany may cancel the summit this weekend you can bet that the market will not be happy about this and the punishment could be severe.

News this morning or leftover from last night, Kinder Morgan (KMP) annoucnes a distribution increase and earnings. Also we have TC Pipelines with a distribution announcement and Suburban Propane (SPH) announces its payout. Otherwise we are rolling along. No upgrades or downgrades. The market is ready to open and while the tape for mlps continues to feel strong, at some point the rally is going to stall especially if the overall market starts to fall again. And remember that mlps are usually the last ones that are sold so if a new downleg begins, they will offer us clues as to where the bottom is. And if it goes the other way and breaks out above 11,600 they will continue to lead. Never a dull moment.

Wednesday, October 19, 2011

Watching the trading today, everytime we hit the top of the hour, CNBC goes to the greek riots and stocks sell off, the dollar rallies. Then the market rebounds and goes on the higher highs and higher lows. Not alot but noticable as we are at the point of breakout or fakeout.

The mlp index is up 3 points and the star is Sunoco Logistics (SXL) as it approaches 100 bucks. Its up fractionally at 95 and change. Otherwise we're seeing nice fractional moves higher in most members of the group.

Okay live from Greece and things have calmed down. Its 6pm there so they are either napping or having an early evening espresso.

Very quietly in the land of MLPS we have seen a wonderful rally from the spike below 320 that we saw 2 weeks ago. We are up 9 out of the last 10 days and we are sitting above the 89 day moving average. We also above the 34,55,144, and 200 day moving averages! If your wondering how i came up with those numbers..they are fibonacci numbers. And i have found that the work pretty well.

Meanwhile in the Dow Industrials yesterday we traded as high as the 144 day moving average (not shown here) and the 34 day moving average (in blue) all in one day. We have seen a 700 point swing in 2 days trading. This is the new normal. And being short (and in excruciating pain) right now, i keep looking at this tape and the 10 year still at 2.20% and i keep telling myself..this can't be good. I can't help but feel that this is going to get resolved violently if we break out of the range (10,600-11,600) in either direction. And being short (built position between 11,100 and 11,500) its stands to reason that the breakout will be up.

Okay back to MLPS, Amerigas (APU) is getting downgraded by Citigroup today. Global Partners (GLP) announces its payout and reaffirms for the future. Markwest (MWE) announced its payout last night and so did Magellan Midstream (MMP).

After yesteday's nutty day stock futures are dead even this morning after hot inflation numbers. Oil is flat. Nat gas is up a few ticks. The dollar is getting slammed against the Euro and gold is a little higher. Another day of trading as my stomach keeps turning.

Monday, October 17, 2011

We have the dow down 200 points and mlps up less than 1 point on the index after being higher earlier. Energy is at the forefront today with the deals we have on the table. Kinder Morgan (KMP) is up 2 and change and giving a big lift to the mlp index. El Paso Partners (EPB) is down 3 and change but was down more than 4 earlier. The feeling here is that the KMI-EP deal is not going to be good for El Paso Partners but very good for Kinder Morgan Partners (KMP). And Atlas Holdings (ATLS) is up on its restructuring news. Amerigas (APU) is down on its buying of propane assets from Energy Transfer Partners (ETP).

The market is giving back Friday's gains and then some now that Germany says the dream deal may not be so dreamy. In the end i think we are building up to a big move out of this recent range one way or the other. And it may come after this coming weekend.

We have a pretty busy morning in MLP land with 2 deals to talk about. The first and the one that is up front is the deal of Kinder Morgan (KMI) not to be confused with Kinder Morgan LP (KMP). KMI is buying El Paso (EP) for 21 billion. Now this is having impact on Kinder Morgan (KMP) which pre market is up $1.57 on some volume. Meanwhile El Paso Partners (EPB) is down 1.61 perhaps on the idea that KMI will be selling EPB assets instead of dropping them down into the LP. Kinder Morgan (KMI) is up 1.40 on the deal as the buyer as the purchase is accretive and allows an instant dividend increase and perhaps 12% dividend growth next year and beyond. And dividends are all the rage these days. Its part of the reason why the MLP index is back at the top of the range and above its moving average trendlines. And this deal for Kinder Morgan is a huge bet on the future of natural gas.

Another deal is on the front page this morning. Amerigas (APU) is buying the propane assets from Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) and this means a distribution boost for Amerigas holders. Amerigas is up a fraction on this news.

And we have Atlas Resource Partners (ATLS) is forming a new E&P LP which unit holders will get a piece of. ATLS is up 1.40 on a couple of trades before the open.

As to the overall market which for me is the As The Stomach Turns soap opera being short, we are sitting at the absolute top of the recent range and we are working our way though the moving average resistence lines. The 200 day moving average btw is not shown on this chart but sits at 1234 which i think will be formidable if we get there. This rally has been very impressive on price but extremely lacking on volume. Its as if there is a vacuum right now with few sellers until Europe does something. The dream is that the crisis is over and done and i have to believe that these clowns in the end will do something well short of what the market expects.

No other news and no upgrades or downgrades. Europe is lower this morning and the euro is down. Stock futures are a little lower ahead of the open. Europe continues to drive trading so we will watch them for any clues.

Friday, October 14, 2011

I seem to be batting 1000 these days. I've wrong every time! So much for the lean into the rally idea. Stocks keep moving higher. Short position keeps getting more painful! MLPS at the highs of the day.

Just a quick post here as i have a wedding this afternoon (not mine). MLPS are up over 3 points today with nice gains on the board in most issues. The overall market opened up sharply by 130 points. Since the open we've seen sellers lean into the tape. The dow is now up just 60. More importantly the bank stocks are all lower after a higher open. European banks sold off in the last hour of their trading. We hit the absolute top of the recent range. And while price at the end of the day is the most important thing (dow up 1200 points from low tick to high tick in 9 trading days) the volume has been absolutely non existent. So unless something big comes out of this weekend's meeting, i think the reality sets in that Europe is not going to come up with something the markets will be happy with. And in this casino we can be back at 10,400 just as fast as we came up from there.

Thursday, October 13, 2011


Since we seem to make a years worth of moves in a week these days i thought it would be a good idea to take a look at the charts up close and personal so we can figure which way we are going in the short term (1 week) and the intermediate term (1 month).

The mlp index has been trading in a range between 330 and 360. The moving averages lie right above current prices and has marked the top. Closing lows are around 330 with intra day adventures under 320 which have turned around on both occasions. So in the context of this range we have a double bottom (bullish) and a double top with a potential triple top if it fails here (bearish).
The dow chart is in a range of 1000 points from 10600 to 11600. Yesterday we got to the top of the range and we did it in 6 trading days...1200 dow points. And here too we have a double bottom and a double (or triple) top. One of these trips is going to lead to a breakout or a breakdown but trying to figure out which has been a nightmare.

Here is the look on the chart going back 6 months. The negative for an upside break is the fact that volume on this rally has decreased on the way up. Usually not good. Also the shear speed of the move has been mind boggling considering that nothing really has changed here nor in Europe. In the end i think it boils down to the fact that the market will break higher and out of the range for one short! So watch today to see if yesterday's stall was the sign of another move down. My guess is if we go down to the bottom of the range, there is a real chance we will take it out and do it decisively. And perhaps it will happen even faster than the rise up. But it again since i'm positioned to profit from this, the dow will head to 13000. MLPS will move along as the dog tail relationship. If markets rally strongly and the 10 year yields start to rise rapidly we could see this hold mlps back a bit. On the other hand the yield spreads are still pretty wide that 10 year yields could probably climb 100 basis points and not impact mlps too much.

In news this morning Enterprise Products Partners (EPD) ups the payout for the 29th consecutive quarter. No other news this morning and no upgrades or downgrades. Stock futures are lower ahead of the open. Europe is down. The euro is down. Gold is down. Oil is down. So the big question is whether the rally to the top of the range will be like the last 2 rallies. If they are it will be another fast trip down to the edge of the abyss.

Wednesday, October 12, 2011


I suppose the best guarantee to have the market go down is for me to have gone long at the bottom last Tuesday and held. I however added some more to my leveraged short position this morning and even bought some double short Euro (EUO). So this pretty much guarantees that we will break out of this range from 1080-1220. MLPS meanwhile are back up to resistence around 350 which is where the moving averages are.
The index is up just 1 point today as attention in the markets appear to be elsewhere. Sunoco Logistics (SXL) meanwhile is at a new all time high today up over 93 and looking like it wants to go to 100. Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP) is up over a buck. Most mlps showing nice fractional gains today. We do have a few small fractional losers like Plains All American (PAA) Energy Transfer Equity (ETE) and a few others but nothing is news driven.

Fed minutes at 2pm might give everyone an excuse to lean into the rally but with my luck lately they will use it to break us out above the recent range. One thing about holding a short position, it becomes a lot easier to recognize the bullish argument. I will continue to endure the pain!

Tuesday, October 11, 2011


The tug of war in a 1000 point range continues. Last week we got down to 10,404 on Tuesday. 5 trading days later we're up 1000 points. Its nice to get a years worth of gains in a week! Such are times these days.

Markets this morning are focused on the latest Euro drama as they wait to see if Slovakia approves the plan to the plan to the plan that Europe continues in the game of kick the can. If they do not pass this plan to plan to plan, then its back to the drawing board for Europe and i suspect we will see a quick couple of hundred points come out of the market. Day after day the trading has become a bit of a headache.

MLPS meanwhile move right along with the tape as we have come back to the top of the recent trading range for the group. We have distribtution news from Plains All American (PAA) which is raising its payout by 1.25 cents. The payout announcements should be coming fast and furious for the group in the next few weeks. No upgrades or downgrades so far this morning. Stock futures are lower after yesterday's rally. The dollar is higher and oil and nat gas are lower along with gold. We're at the top of the range so i suspect the rally has gone as far as it can go given that nothing has really changed since last Tuesday.

Friday, October 07, 2011

In bear markets that 3 day rally curse tends to work very well and now we have downgrades of Italy and Spain that just hit the tape and markets are selling off. What is distressing to me is that gold is going down and that tells me that there is distress out there in some institution(s). I have a feeling that not many people are going to want to go home long this weekend. Dow down 35 points after being up 100 earlier. Nasdaq down 36 and the mlp index is down almost 3 points. Keep an eye on the tape this afternoon.

MLPS continue to bounce up another 6 points yesterday and looking at the chart, it really doesn't look that bad. 330 on a closing basis becomes the new line in the sand as shown on the chart and we've had 2 successful trips down below 320 followed by a reversal.

The markets are taking solace from the relief rally from Europe where they, yet again, are planning to draw up a plan to plan out a way out of their mess, but before they plan to draw up a plan there is vacation and espressos. And technically there has been much talk about Tuesday's reversal.

However on closer inspection the power of that reversal might be a little less than it appears. Compare this to the reversal back in August were the dow went from 10,600 to 11,200 in one day for a 600 point turn vs Tuesday's which took us from 10,400 to about 10,800. Also the reversal came at 20% down bear market territory being achieved and there was probably a lot of program buying. Now we hear the drumbeats of that the bottom may be in. Sorry folks but im just not sold on it. We have the 34 day moving average sitting right above the dow at 11,191 and this has been a solid wall. So in my book we need to at least get above that level and stay there for a few days before we discuss a change in trend. And we have lower highs and lower lows in place so if that pattern holds..the turn should come at anytime. And we are going into a weekend. The bullish employment number this morning takes us right into resistence.

Markwest (MWE) is doing a public offering of shares and the stock is down a dollar and change. Otherwise there is no news this morning and no upgrades or downgrades. Stock futures are higher as we said with the less bad employment number. Euro markets are rallying again as they follow us. Crude is rallying with stock futures. The 10 year is back over 2%. Looks like a solid up open and then a three day weekend but stock markets are open Monday.

Thursday, October 06, 2011

When Europe didn't implode this morning, stocks rallied and are now at critical junctures on the charts. The Vix is right at support where it has come to on each of these rally attempts. We are up 700 points from the Tuesday lows which is about as much of a move as we got from previous reflex rallies. And is it me or these headlines coming out saying there will be no recession, Morgan Stanley is not in trouble, Europe will manage Greece remind you of all the headlines in 2008 telling us there were nothing wrong?

MLPS are up as well with the index up 3 points as we grab some lunch. I've been building a short position in the market on this rally as i've done in previous ones.
Markets do not seem to like what Jean Claude Trichet said in the press conference about Euro bond purchases that will not expand the money supply. Futures have pulled back to the flat line.

To the surprise of some (but not all) the ECB did nothing on interest rates. The markets seemed to have priced in a cut. Euro markets have come off their highs but remain higher. Stock futures were up about 70 points pre open but have come back to almost flat as of this post. Of course the markets (yet again ) rallied sharply from that 10,450 bottom on Tuesday morning and we're up back near 10,900. The last rally took us from 10,650 to 11,200 so you have to wonder if we can only go so far here, especially if we keep seeing lower highs and lower lows.

MLPS took another trip down under 320 before bouncing and got back another 5 yesterday which takes us almost to break even on the week. No news this morning but Citigroup is doing a wholesale cut of price targets on coal stocks this morning and they cut the targets on Alliance Resource and Alliance Holdings (ARLP,AHGP) and they also cut the target on Natural Resource Partners(NRP). Price target moves don't often move stocks too much but we'll keep an eye on this. Western Gas however gets an upgrade to buy from Stifel. That might move the stock a bit.

Not much else going on this morning. The euro is down, stock futures remain higher but off the highs. Euro markets are higher but off their highs on the non event from the ECB. Gold is down a little but silver is up a little. Tomorrow we get the employment number which will get all the attention between now and then. Crude is flat and brent is a little lower ahead of the open.

Tuesday, October 04, 2011


I suppose if i had to be a chart i would rather be the MLP chart above rather than the dow chart below. Yesterday's action has put us in breakdown mode. Everyone this morning is in a tizzy over the fact that on October 3rd 2008 the S&P closed at 1099.23 which was the close yesterday October 3 2011. The VIX closed yesterday above 45 as it did on 10/3/2008. And the most important coincidence of all? The Yankees lost to Detroit! The outcome in 2008 was the S&P one week later was at 899. Now nothin happens the same way twice but its not impossible that we might see a reasonable facsimile.

MLPS seem to be on a race down to 310-320 where support lies while the dow sees 10000 just below it or around 1050 on the S&P. We could get there in one quick move down and frankly i would love to see a climax selloff develope today to perhaps give us a chance for one of those rip your face off type rallies. Those of you out there with fire power will get the chance to pick up some bargains especially in MLPS. Beware that some of the higher priced mlps could get many points knocked out of them in a big hurry like EV Partners (EVEP) which lost 8 points at one point yesterday before coming back and ending down a little less than 6.

QR Energy (QRE) announces a distribution boost this morning which is nice for its holders but probably won't stop the selling. No other news so far this morning and no upgrades or downgrades. Stock futures pointing to a 15 point down S&P open, dow down about 120. We're off the lows of the morning. Euro markets are a mess. The dollar is up. Crude is down 2 dollars and Gold is lower. We're getting near the point of the big portfolio blowout. Be ready when it comes.

Monday, October 03, 2011

MLPS down nearly 9 points as they are now making a full scale frontal assault on 1100 on the S&P and 10,600 on the dow. The mlp index is at 330 and this would be a new closing low for the recent trading range. Last hour cascading breakdown appears imminent.

EV Partners (EVEP) is down nearly 8. Alliance Resource (ARLP) is down 3.50. Linn Energy (LINE) and Williams (WPZ) is down 2.50. And we have a long list of mlps down between 1 and 2 points. Kinder Morgan (KMP) is now down almost a point and Enterprise (EPD) is down 35 cents as the days biggest winner or smallest loser. Nothing is moving on news but we are getting to the point where portfolios are selling down their winners as they may have sold everything else. Even Apple (AAPL) is down 7 and Amazon is down 3. Keep an eye on those two for overall market clues because the decline won't end until they have taken everything out to the woodshed.

Downside targets for me if they breakdown completely is 10,000 on the dow and 1050 ish on the S&P. The vix btw is just under 45.
The gas is coming out of the baloon with the dow down 185 and the buzzards circling around AMR, Bank America, and Morgan Stanley among others. For MLPS the index is now down nearly 6 and near the lows of the day. EV Partners is getting hammered for nearly 7 points and there are lots of major losses of 1 to 2 points across the list. Enterprise (EPD) and Kinder Morgan (KMP) are down fractionally which is why the index isn't off more.

We are at the absolute bottom for the S&P 500 and poised for a breakdown late today.

Make no mistake. MLPS continue to hold up so much better than the overall market and we are coming into another round of payouts in about 6 weeks. You can hold a 10 year for a year and get 1.9% or you can hold an mlp for 6 weeks and get the same 1.9%! Of course there is price risk and if the already leaking dam really breaks, you can expect mlps to take a drop down to that 320 intra day low set back in August. Meanwhile the overall market has moved to the bottom of the recent range and has done so in a big hurry.

1120 has held and while markets could bounce off that level in a hurry, ultimately i think its going to go as i've been arguing for quite awhile. The VIX is a couple of ticks under 43 and the August high there is around 48. Nothing has really changed over the weekend on the overall market picture. The US economy is teetering, Europe is burning, and Greece is deciding what time espressos will be served today even though there is no money to pay for them..but what the hell.

Targa Natural Resources (NGLS) continues on the road to expansion as they make 2 strategic purchases. Calumet (CLMT) is also making some asset purchases from Murphy Oil. Seeking Alpha has a piece on Calumet on its distribution and whether its sustainable. No other news and no upgrades or downgrades.

Elsewhere gold and silver are up. Euro markets are down 1 to 2 percent. Stock futures here are down about 70 dow points. The dollar is up against the Euro. My guess is that markets are going to wait for the ECB which will do nothing with rates this week and that might be the event that sends markets cascading lower.