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Tuesday, November 30, 2010

MLPS down modestly after a dow drop of 100 points which has now come off the lows with good economic data so far today. Inergy LP (NRGY) is down 80 cents as the mornings biggest loser. Most of the morning moves so far are plus or minus small fractions.
So much for that nat gas rally this morning as we are down almost 2 percent right now.

Its front and center this morning and yesterday's late day reversal in the overall market is getting undone this morning with futures down about 100 points. The dow chart is at a make or break place here as the support is holding but its getting to be a bit tenuous. So far though it is hanging on. Yesterday's late day rally looked like an end of month move with no lasting effect. We'll be back down to yesterday's lows at the open.

MLPS came back to some degree keeping losses under 1 point. The rally in bonds is being supportive in here to some degree so as long as things dont get too out of hand, any moves will be relatively contained and reasonable. But markets are a bit spooked right now with eyes on whether Spain will be the Lehman of Europe.

Nat gas corrected hard yesterday but its back up today before the open as weather will be turning colder than normal for the first half of December across the gas consuming areas of the midwest and northeast. Went long again on the pullback yesterday using UNL and not UNG. Its only for the most nimble of traders. Make your money and run!

Inergy LP (NRGY) chairman John Sherman was on CNBC yesterday discussing with Cramer about the quarterly results.

The chairman says the distribution is safe and the quarter was just a one time blip. Good interview for those of you who own this one or are thinking about it.

Monday, November 29, 2010

Markets coming back toward the flat line with energy leading. Crude up nearly 2 bucks on the day. MLPS well off the lows of the day and many have turned higher in the last hour. The tape all day long felt light it was waiting for something to set off the buying and when the dollar came off the highs at 2pm it was enough to get the market moving.
Dow down 130 and MLPS down 2 and off the lows of the day. Its all Europe all the time right now. Bonds are higher, yields lower but not exactly a flight to quality run as that is occuring in the dollar. Alliance Resource (ARLP) Calumet (CLMT) Crestwood Midstream (CMLP) and Amerigas (APU) lead the losers list this morning as most mlps are fractionally lower. Regency Partners (RGNC) is the lone noteable winner up 25 cents right now. Inergy (NRGY) was down 1 on earnings as they sell the news but the losses have been cut in half.

The tape has a firm tone to it oddly enough at least at this point of the day and despite the losses so lets see if they can hold that 11k level at the close.
Inergy LP (NRGY) posts another very good round of quarterly numbers. The stock has been among the better performers in MLP land.

Stock futures continue to call for a lower open.

We certainly hope that you had a wonderful Thanksgiving as i did here. Now its back to Monday morning and a full trading day with all the players back. Over the weekend we had the bailout of Ireland but will it make any difference? Doubtful as these guys seem to think they can grow there way out of this mess. And that means the Euro mess will continue to drive markets. Attention shifts to Portugal & Spain among others. Its not a good sign that German bonds dropped on all this. And ask yourself this question. What happens as interest rates rise especially on the long end? That is certainly something the U.S. will have to consider as it finances its massive debt at higher rates. We may be at the very beginning of the swirl around the drain.
The 30 year yield chart looks to me like we have come out of a bottom and are now on an uptrend. I believe the thing to look for is when we start to see on a sustained basis; bond yields going up while equity prices drop. That will be a telling sign that trouble is brewing.

The dow and MLP charts appear to be in a holding pattern here and right now there appears to be nothing extraordinary going on here. US markets have strongly outperformed Europe as the fed's QE2 just floods the markets with tons of liquidity with no place to go. This is probably why these soverign debt collapses have not had a big impact on stock prices with the fed backing up the markets. MLPS have the crosswinds of good business conditions and the prospect of higher distributions on one side vs the threat of rising long term yields on the other. This push and pull is likely to continue for awhile until something causes the markets to break one way or the other.

MLPS are going to follow the tape at the open. No news drivers out there on the corporate side and no upgrades or downgrades so far. Stock futures are lower and below fair value after being higher overnight. Bond yields are a touch higher as are crude. Nat gas continues to move higher as colder weather looms in the gas consuming states. At some point this tailwind will run out of steam but nat gas seems to have broken out of a base.
Using UNL as a proxy (better than using UNG) 37 is doable on this upleg and that would be the logical place where a test will ensue. The dollar continues its flight to quality rally with the European woes. Watching headlines and will post any news items that break on MLPS before the open.

Friday, November 26, 2010


The dow opens down 100 points and the MLP index opens down 1.50 as Euro worries, Korean worries, and other worries dominate the tape on a holiday shortened day. Considering it is a holiday shortened day in a volume vacuum, the sell off is pretty contained. Not expecting too much to happen today under these conditions unless the North Koreans fire off a rocket or something.

Going to take the day off today. Have a good weekend and we'll see everyone on Monday!

Wednesday, November 24, 2010

As often happens on big up days mlps are doing nothing. In fact the index is down 65 cents while the dow is up 140. Looks like mlps are responding to the 10 basis point rise in the 30 year and the 14 basis point rise in the 10 year. Crude is up and nat gas has decisively broken out after being down this morning; nat gas turned around at lunchtime and is now up 2 percent.

Spectra (SEP) is up 50 cents and is today's biggest winner on the UBS upgrade from sell to neutral. EV Partners (EVEP) and Exterran Partners (EXLP) are fractional winners. Plains All American (PAA) is down 75 cents and is the biggest loser along with being the biggest drag on the mlp index.

Nice rally on the day before Thanksgiving!!! MLPS seemed to have figured this out and the buyers have gone home early.

It was long ago in the last cycle that Richard Kinder took Kinder Morgan (KMP) private and end a spectacular climb from an ipo at 7 bucks in 1997 to a takeout at 107.50 dollars for shareholders in 2007. Now its time to come back to the market and Kinder Morgan will be doing an ipo. Its a sign of the times and a sign of how good the mlp market really is these days. Normally we'd have to question the possibility of a top but given the performance of the first time around, i think i will bet with Mr Kinder in the long haul.

Its the day before Thanksgiving and my sense is much of the market moves will be done by noon as everyone begins the early getaway. Stock futures are higher this morning and yields are higher on bonds. Crude is higher and nat gas is lower. No corporate news for mlps. UBS is upgrading Spectra Energy (SEP) to neutral and the stock is bid up above its previous close in the pre market.

Going to keep it short this morning as i have errands to run but i will be posting if any significant headlines break.

Tuesday, November 23, 2010


Sorry for not posting until now but its been one of those pre thanksgiving days where i had to run around, food shop, dog groom, get gas for the grill, and drive 2 hrs to get middle child from college. All this and a stomach that is doing all sorts of weird things and it has not been fun. Markets sold off on the Korean mess which i'm sure you've all heard about it by now. You can have your pick of news stories here along with blog reactions. Dow went down to 11k and held (so far) so the last hour could tell us alot about that support. MLPS are doing okay as yields fall a little today. No corporate news and no upgrades or downgrades that i could find.

Monday, November 22, 2010

Nat gas breakout occuring as it is up 12 cents and above last week's high. Instead of selling rallies, pullbacks now can be bought.

Dow down less than 80. MLP index now unchanged.
The MLP index is doing some rebalancing at the end of the month and coming into the index is Martin Midstream Partners (MMLP). Since we now live in a world with etf's and etns in the mlp land the index change means the efts have to buy the stock. Martin is up 1.15 on the news. The index itself is down about 1 point and off the lows of the day. Natural Resource Partners (NRP) is down 88 cents as the biggest loser today. Markwest (MWE) Buckeye(BPL) and Energy Transfer (ETP) are down major fractions. On the winning side Copano (CPNO) Nustar (NS) and Alliance Resource (ARLP) are up fractionally.

Yields are rallying right now as the 30 year which dropped to 4.169 is now back to 4.22% and markets overall are off the lows of the day with the dow down about 100 after being down 140. Natgas is firm as we are attempting a breakout.

A holiday shortened week begins and MLPS are starting the week within striking distance at its all time high but also just sitting above its supporting moving averages. Today is 2 years since the 145 ish intraday low and we are 210 points above that today. Think back to this moment 2 years ago in the middle of the meltdown and ask yourself if you were really confident that in just 2 short years time, most of your mlps would be at all time highs?

We continue to worry about some of the headwinds that are out there, not the least of which is rising long term rates. But so far i appear to be the only on worrying because so far mlps aren't too worried. We're still trying to figure out where the tipping point is.

A couple of reads out there to take a look at. ETFdb has a pretty in depth piece explaining MLP etf's and how they work. If you have any lingering questions about them..this may answer them. This piece address the issue of MLPS being overvalued relative to yield and says they the piece and find out.

No corporate news and no upgrades or downgrades this morning as we get it in gear for the open. Stock futures are lower now after being higher overnight. Bond yields are lower, the dollar is higher. Energy has turned flat after being higher overnight. Nat gas is on the verge of a short term upside breakout. But that market of course is only for the most nimble of traders.

Saturday, November 20, 2010


I have added a button on the top of the sidebar should you like to recommend this to some of your facebook friends. Or should you wish to friend me on FB just mention the MLP blog.

Friday, November 19, 2010


There is a nice looking double bottom that appears to be in place and we may know soon whether nat gas is about to make a move higher short term. I'm using UNL which is the 12 month nat gas fund as opposed to UNG which is front loaded with near month futures and as a result has become a wasting asset and not wise except for the most nimble of traders. In fact UNL or UNG if used should be for short term players and not those who believe that nat gas prices are going higher in the long term. Back to the short term, weather is turning favorable and we could see a long overdue rally in here. First obstacles will be the moving averages which lie just above. Watching how a stock breaks through these lines marks the character and strength of the breakout so if it cuts through it fast; its saying there is a lot of buying power behind the move. Nat gas is up in the premarket this morning and above 4.00 on the nearby futures contract.

MLPS finished up yesterday by under 2 points. No news drivers so far this morning in the group. No upgrades or downgrades so far. Stock futures are down a little. Yields are a little lower on the long end. Gold and silver are down and so is the dollar. Its Friday everyone so lets get ready for the open which is 30 minutes away.

Thursday, November 18, 2010

Forgot to mention that natgas sold off after inventory numbers but has staged a complete reversal and is now back to unchanged.
As often happens on big days, MLPS get left behind a little bit as the more well known shares get all the attention including the new General Motors. The index is off the highs up 1.50. Most mlps are higher with Alliance Resource (ARLP) up 1 and we have nice fractional gains in Natural Resource (NRP), Nustar (NS), Energy Transfer (ETP) and Sunoco Logistics (SXL). Not many issues showing losses of any consequence. Atlas Holdings (AHD) dropped about 80 cents early but its back over 14 and only down 20 cents.

The 30 year is at 4.31% and rising back toward the days highs.

We continue to move right along here as markets are set to zoom up about 100 dow points at the open. MLPS are set to move along higher at the open as well after a fractional gain higher on the index in yesterday's trade. Everyone's attention is on the GM IPO this morning so while the world is distracted we can look around without being noticed. MLP closed end funds got a mention in the Barrons blog section. Seeking Alpha likes Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) over some other mlps and a long piece on why. Investerplace has a bit of a buyer beware piece on MLPS when it comes to high yield. And there has been some attention being paid to the muni bond market as there has been a big sell off there. Seeking Alpha has more on something that so far has not had much impact on other markets.

And speaking of other markets, the bond market continues to get my attention. We have clearly broken out of a bottom as far as yields go. We've had 2 failed auctions and i am sensing more and more that we may be at the beginning of something much bigger that we will be dealing with in the next few months. The steepening yield curve is telling us one of 2 things. Either the economy is about to take off, or bond investors are saying that yields are too low based on future debt and inflation. If these were normal times i would bet on the economy taking off. But these are not normal times. I'm beginning to believe that we could be at the beginning of the greatest of unwinds in the bond market and this will have huge ramifications as far as stocks and mlps are concerned. Suppose its more than just an inflation fear. Suppose its the fear of the US losing its AAA grade? Suppose one of these Europe like contagions begins here? Right now we are not there yet but there is a tipping point out there somewhere. And we can safely say today is not that day.

This morning in MLP land we are pretty much news free. No upgrades or downgrades. Stock futures are sharply higher. Yields open higher after jobless claims. Crude is up and nat gas is lower ahead of inventory numbers. Nat gas closed above 4 bucks again yesterday. 4.20 is the recent rally high and it seems to be that we are headed back there to attempt a serious breakout. That could come if we get bullish numbers at 10:30am. Also i mentioned yesterday that the weather pattern will turn favorable later next week for nat gas bulls. Weather models continue to point in that direction of colder than normal temps for the midwest and northeast after Thanksgiving.

Wednesday, November 17, 2010

Mixed moves in a "watching paint dry" kind of day. MLS up less than a point on the index. Most mlps are moving fractionally in either direction with no conviction one way or the other. Bond market gyrations continue as yields dropped to 4.22 this morning and are back near 4.30 this afternoon. Crude is down while nat gas is up but off the highs of the day.

We have finally made our way and rather quickly down to the 34 day moving average and we bounced off of that, closing off the lows of the day. The question becomes whether this is a one or 2 day affair or is there more work to do. Markets are a bit jittery with all going on in Europe, bailouts, China, etc etc etc. Or it may have just been a much need pause and another buying opportunity. The key remains rates and it would be wise to watch long bonds for clues as to where this is all going. Yesterday bond yields soard to 4.40 and closed at 4.25. There was a flight to quality that began in the bond sector yesterday so some may come out today. Still even with the dow down nearly 200 and MLPS down nearly 8, the damage was pretty much in control.

MLPS are quiet this morning on the news front however Harbinger announces they have a 9.6% interest in Crosstex (XTXI) and have approached the board about control. Could be the reason why the stock has been relatively active in the last week.

Stock futures are a little higher and so are yields. Crude is down this morning but nat gas is up. BTW the weather pattern after thanksgiving looks very cold in the northeast and midwest going into December. This could be a bullish tailwind for nat gas which i believe is putting in a significant tradable bottom.

Tuesday, November 16, 2010

The mlp index is down near the lows of the day off over 10 points and we have finally corrected down to the 34 day moving average which hasn't happened since August. Notice that in past corrections its not unusual to undercut the moving averages and even sit under them for awhile.

Bonds rallying now with the dow off 200.
MLP index is selling off down over 6 points led by Plains All American (PAA) which is down nearly 2 on the stock offering. Nustar (NS) is down almost 2 and Alliance Resource (ARLP) is down 1.50. Magellan (MMP) Penn Virginia Resource (PVR) Sunoco Logistics, Buckeye (BPL) and a host of others down 1 or more. Almost every mlp is down right now.

Market is getting battered by the rising dollar and Europe gitters over Greece and Ireland. There was a time that they would run to the 30 year for safety but thats not happening today as rates opened lower but its now higher. 4.375 on the 30 year which is now up a few ticks on the day. 4.41% was the late day high yesterday. Dow down 132.

In 5 days we will be commemorate the day when we were staring into the ultimate abyss at 145 and small change on the MLP index. Today we sit at 362 or 2 1/2 times higher plus 8 distributions (assuming you were in the right mlps) and just off new all time highs while the overall market remains 3000 dow points below its peak. A great ride it has been and it has come with interest rates down near zero on the short end and down to 3.50 on the 30 year. In the last couple of weeks we've seen long rates break out of a base and yesterday we closed at 4.40%. So far mlps have shrugged this off and have just marched along higher. At some point this will become a headwind. I have argued with 2 failed auctions that the rise in the 30 year is the market signalling that it is no longer willing to accept sub 4% paper while the fed is flooding the economy with money. The rise to 4.40 has occurred rather quickly and we could see a pullback in here on yield. The bull market in MLPS can keep going but at some point rising long term yields if they continue will exert a negative headwind. We just may not be here yet.

Plains All American (PAA) becomes the latest MLP to do a stock offering and why not with the stock price near 52 week highs. Not much else on the news front this morning and nothing so far on the upgrade downgrade list. Stock futures are lower ahead of the open. Energy is down except for nat gas which is unchanged. Nat gas did a nice reversal yesterday as a successful retest of the lows of a few weeks ago. Now we watch to see if a double bottom base is in for a short term run above 4.25. The dollar is lower and bond yields are lower after yesterday's big surge higher.

Monday, November 15, 2010

2.91 on the 10 year and 4.37 on the 30 year as long rates continue to move higher. Market still up but off the highs. MLPS off the days highs but still up 2.60.

Also note a reversal today in the natgas market as we were sharply lower and are now closing higher on the day.
MLPS showing a 3 point plus gain with most of the group higher. Copano (CPNO) EV Partners (EVEP) and Magellan (MMP) all up a buck or more. Cheniere (LNG) up 59 cents to almost 5 bucks on the Citigroup upgrade. Nice fractional gains in Alliance Resource (ARLP) Energy Transfer Partners (ETP), Amerigas (APU) Legacy (LGCY) and Markwest (MWE). Nothing notable on the losers or non movers list. Atlas Pipeline Partners (APL) is down about 40 cents but it was up big last week.

Rates near the highs of the day on the 30 year. Markets holding on to solid gains here as we head into the last 2 hours.
Plains All American (PAA) is buying up assets this morning. That headline just crossed.

An up open looms though whether it holds is another matter.

A new week begins and its always good to look back at what happened last week and try to draw some conclusions about where we go from here. Last week's begin event for me was another failed auction on the 30 year treasury and as a result the 30 year yield continues its climb. Last week we closed near the week's highs and that climb continues this morning as we are sitting at 4.33%. Following this morning is the 10 year as we are at 2.89% which is a breakout above the 2.80 base. So clearly long rates led by the 30 year are going up.

Last week stocks and mlps both pulled back. Last week i threw in the correction towel Wednesday morning at 365 which of course became the high for the week and we're down from there although on 2% off the high which isn't much. The dow pulled back and is close to its 11,100 support area. Any intraday sell off puts us right there so its important to watch and see what happens when we get there.

The rise in long yields remains something to keep a weary eye on because much of the last leg in the MLP rally came with an unrelenting decline in the 10 and 30 year. But that appears to be overwith. One has to wonder where is the point where it begins to put pressure on MLP prices. If the yield rise is real, there could be a problem.

Copano (CPNO) and Kinder Morgan (KMP and Chesapeake(CHK) are joining forces in Eagle Ford shale. Thats the big news story of the morning. Chesapeake provides the gas and Copano and Kinder Morgan do the pipeline. On upgrades and downgrades Cheniere (LNG) gets an upgrade of its price target to 5 bucks. This is one of the few remaining single digit player. Not much else happening this morning.

Stock futures are higher ahead of the open and after a stronger retail sales number. Metals are mixed. Crude is higher and nat gas is lower. The dollar is holding its own this morning against the major currencies so far.

Friday, November 12, 2010


Decided to take a day off yesterday even though most markets were open. Stocks opened down about 100 yesterday and sort of stayed there most of the day. MLPS were lower but not by much. Energy stocks in fact were higher yesterday thanks to rising oil. But this morning the tape shows us crude down 1.60 and the dollar a little higher so markets are weaker pre open. MLPS continue to show good strength and i guess it all is tied to rates and what they do. The longest end of the yield curve is seeing rates at 6 month highs. The 10 year is still under 3 so from that stand point there is only a minimal amount of headwind coming from that direction.

No corporate news this morning and no upgrades or downgrades. Atlas Pipeline Holdings (AHD) is up 50% this week and is the week's big winner. Wound not be surprised to see a little pullback there. Not much else happening on this day before the weekend.

Wednesday, November 10, 2010

Yields spiked to 4.33 on the failed 30 year auction but apparently it was the worlds worst kept secret and bonds have actually come off those lows with the yield as i post at 4.27 which was about where we were before the results. MLPS continue to rally off the lows down 1.50 right now. Buckeye up nearly another 3 dollars right now. I suspect there is something happening here.

Buckeye (BPL) has gone parabolic here after being up 3 yesterday, its up another 1 and change plus its ex distribution by 97 cents. Not sure if its anything other than Citigroup raising its target to 65 from 56 and keeping it a hold. Volume spiked yesterday as some wanted to catch the payout. 200k shares have changed hands so far today.

The mlp index was down nearly 5 but now its down a little over 2 points. Kinder Morgan is down 83 cents plus we have Enbridge (EEP) down 2 on the stock offering and they are the primary drags today. Crosstex Energy (XTXI) is up 52 cents or 6% today. No news there other than presenting at the Bank America investment conference next week. Nustar Holdings (NSH) Markwest (MWE) and the Atlas's (APL,AHD) all showing fractional gains.

Market sold off this morning and then rallied back. Looks like that might be running out of steam. 30 year auction results at 1pm. Bonds selling off into that number so they maybe all sold ahead of the outcome which last time was not good.

While the market was busy selling off in the last hour, mlps continued their run and surged to an almost 4 point gain on the index. Much of that might have been a 3 point gain in Buckeye Partners (BPL) ahead of ex distribution today. The Atlas Energy (ATLS) and related deals (APL,AHD) probably gave the engine a little extra gas. This is the longest we have gone without a pullback to the moving averages; last occuring at the end of August. One of these days it will come and come in a hurry but i've given up trying to figure out what the catylist would be. Even long rates rising from 3.75 ot 4.30 on the 30 year hasn't triggered a sell off.

Stock offerings make sense when your currency has a nice high price to it. DCP Midtream announced an offering of shares and Enbridge Energy Partners (EEP) also is coming to the well with additional shares. DCP is down 1 in the premarket and Enbridge is down over 2. No other corporate headlines of consequence.

Jobless claims came in a little lower this morning and stock futures are basically flat. Rates were higher on the 30 year as it hit 4.294% before pulling back. The dollar is higher this morning across the board and gold is a little lower. Crude is lower but nat gas is higher again by a few cents.

Tuesday, November 09, 2010

Buckeye (BPL) is up 3.19 right now and over 69 dollars.
Up 3 points on the mlp, rates on the long end are rising, nat gas is taking off, most mlps near the highs of the day as we enter the last hour. It must be pre distribution buying in Buckeye (BPL) which has the stock up 2.70 right now and is the biggest winner of the day outside of deal driven Atlas Pipeline Partners (APL) which is up over 3.50 and near the highs of the day.
MLPS up 2 on the index.EV Partners (EVEP) Buckeye Partners (BPL) and Natural Resource (NRP) are up 1 or more. Atlas Pipeline (APL) and Atlas Holdings (AHD) are the big winners today up 2 or more each. Strong fractional gains moving many issues to either new all time highs or at least 52 week highs. Western Gas (WES) is down 1.25 on its stock offerning.

Long rates spiking up to 4.20 ahead of the middle auction and results for those are due out at 1. Looks like they are trying to get rates high enough to generate demand.
Atlas Pipeline Partners (APL) is up 4 and Atlas Holdings is now up over 3 in pre market trading.

Futures still a little higher ahead of the open. BTW Western Gas Partners (WES) is using its higher stock price to do a share offering.

Atlas Pipeline Partners (APL) and Atlas Holding (AHD) owners will be a few points happier this morning thanks to Chevron (CVX). Chevron is buying Atlas Energy (ATLS) which holds a stake in Atlas Holdings (AHD). ATLS owners are getting 38 in cash plus the shares of AHD that ATLS holds will be distributed to shareholders. Meanwhile Atas Pipeline Partners (APL) is selling assets to ATLS which they say will take the distribution on APL to 45 to 50 cents next quarter. Its all wonderfully complicated but the bottom line is that ATLS is up 11 bucks in the premarket, APL is up 3 dollars and AHD is up 2.50! Nice item to wake up to if your long. And it brings APL about half way back to where it was back in 2007 when the stock was in the 40s.

We have some earnings news this morning on the tape. Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) announces earnings along with Markwest (MWE) who increased distributable cash flow guidance. Regency Partners (RGNC) is also in the earnings parade this morning.

MLPS closed at another all time high yesterday and are set to open higher this morning. I would think the ATLS, Chevron deal will height interest in anything Marcellus Shale today so i imagine those stocks will all open higher. Nat gas has been in rally mode and is trading over 4.10 this morning. Rates are a little lower as the monthly bond auction continues. There is an other 30 year auction this week and demand will be looked at closely after what happened last month when they held an auction and no one showed up. Stock futures are up a little pre open. Crude is higher along with the euro markets which are all up.

Monday, November 08, 2010


I think its time for me to throw in the towel on the mlp correction to the 200 day moving average. It will happen someday but the move higher continues in relatively unrelenting fashion as we sit now at 361 on the mlp index.

The fly in the ointment is the rate on the 30 year which starts the week at 4.12. Resistence on that chart is between here and 4.20. The 10 however shows no indication of breaking out as it sits under 2.60. Until we see something that will cause investors to move out of interest sensitive stocks, the path of least resistence is higher.

Buckeye Partners (BPL) announces earnings this morning along with the distribution which will be paid at the end of the month. Buckeye doesnt go ex-dis until Wednesday (bank holiday Thursday). Transmontaigne (TLP) is due out with earnings at any time while Markwest (MWE) and Atlas Pipeline (APL) are due out after the close.

Stock futures this morning are a little lower. Energy is lower except for nat gas which is higher and sits just under 4 dollars. Rates are flat right now and the dollar is higher.

Friday, November 05, 2010


The more boyant employment numbers this morning have sent bond rates rising but since the fed has made it clear its focusing on 10 years or less, its causing a bit of a divergence in the charts and a steepening of the yield curve. Now this is a good thing to see as the steeper curve is a sign that the economy is about to pick up. Or at least thats what the fed wants to see as is sucks out supply on the shorter end and effectively floods the system with money.

Its the 10 year chart which im particularly intrigued with as it looks like its has stopped going down but no decisive breakout as shown by the 30 year. Clearly the long end of the curve has broken out short term with 4.20 the first line of resistence. We got to 4.15 this morning. That failed auction on the 30 year last month was a great buy signal and so far it has borne out nicely. At some point its going to mean that a headwind may develope for mlps, but not until the 10 year and the 30 year behave in line. Still it is something to watch.

Markets open a little higher this morning after yesterday's big day. MLPS open up another 1.20 and the list has a host of fractional gains. Crosstex(XTEX,XTXI) put up earnings this morning which were as expected. Both stocks are up a few pennies. DCP Midstream (DPM) also has earnings news that was in line with estimates.

Overall a good week. Breeders Cup looms as we head for the other casino later today. Go Zenyatta, Go Goldikova, and Go Red Desire!

Thursday, November 04, 2010

Markets and mlps holding to the bulk of gains with a little mid afternoon softness setting in. Still solid gains. And nat gas has turned around and is now higher!
The dow is up 185 and at 11,400 right now and clearly we have broken out above the 11,200 level. MLPS trading at all time highs with the index up another 3 points. Not every mlp is up however. Holly Partners (HEP), Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) and Energy Transfer Equity (ETE) are down fractionally and Genesis (GEL) is down 1 on the stock offering. On the winners side, Markwest (MWE) Oneok (OKS) Enbridge Energy Partners (EEP) and Alliance Resource (ARLP) all up one point or more and much of the rest of the group showing solid fractional gains. Spectra Energy put up earnings this morning and the stock is up fractionally.

Rates are sharply lower with maturities 10 years or less thanks to the fed. 30 year yield is holding above 4. Nat gas numbers were bearish so nat gas is down but not completely falling apart.

Yesterday's fed move to essentailly throw money from helicopters in order to stimulate the economy was pretty much in line with market expectations but the biggest reaction came in the 30 year bond which went from 3.86 at 2pm to 4.07 at the close Wednesday for a 21 basis point turnaround. The feds move is concentrated in buying notes 10 years or less in duration which means they want the 30 year rate to rise in order to steepen the yield curve. Judging by the chart action it appears that long rates have bottomed and we may be at the beginning of an upleg which will take us back to 4.80%, which btw is where we were just 6 months ago.

MLPS meanwhile finished a little lower yesterday and i continue to think its time for a trip back to support. Maybe the rise in long term yields will be the trigger. But the market continues to defy my expectations. Market trading is a humbling experience. BTW the TBT which is 2x the 20 year yield was up 4% yesterday and for the brave among you who want to play the yield casino, its a good way to play rising yield. But its for trading purposes only and not for the faint of heart.

Lots of news to chew through in MLP land. First from last night after the close Genesis (GEL) announces a public offering of shares. The stock is down 1 this morning. Plains All American (PAA) announces earnings which were strong as usual, and Martin Midstream Partners (MMLP) put up earnings as well. This morning we have earnings from Exterran Partners (EXLP), Targa Natural Resource (NGLS) announces earnings and distribution numbers, and Eagle Rock (EROC) announces its distirbution of .025 but it says it plans to go to 15 cents next quarter! We are waiting for Spectra Energy Partners (SEP) and Copano (CPNO) which will come out after the close.

Stock futures are higher this morning ahead of the open. Gold is higher, the dollar is getting clobbered. Crude is higher and nat gas is higher as well.

Wednesday, November 03, 2010

After the fed they are trashing the dollar and selling the long bond. Rates bottomed today at 3.86 on the 30 year but after the fed its at 4.02 or a 16 basis point rise! MLPS down 2 on the index with the dow off 33.

Sorry guys but its 4 days in for me with this stomach virus and it has left me not feeling like doing anything. The fed looms in less than an hour and the markets are setting up for something big one way or the other. The market feels like it wants to go higher while my instinct is to point lower..which probably means we'll both be wrong and the market will go sideways!

Tuesday, November 02, 2010

Mark Rubio wins Florida which is another tea party win and the republicans pick up another seat. Blumenthal the democrat wins in Connecticut and Chris Coons wins in Delaware. No surprises here as the last 2 were held by democrats.
Jim Demint wins in SC which is a republican hold. Pat Lehay, democrat, holds his seat in Vt.
Rand Paul winds the republican seat in KY while Dan Coats takes a seat from democrats in Indiana. The Paul win is the first win for the tea party tonight.
MLPS closed higher today and at another all time high. Now waiting to resolve the first of 2 uncertainties. The election and the fed.

Polls just closed in most of Kentucky and Indiana.

Three days of feeling awful so my apologies here. Starting to feel a little better this morning so lets start with elections. Real Clear Politics has the House of Representatives flipping which seems like a done deal. The Senate will be close. Meanwhile we have the fed in a 2 day meeting which tomorrow afternoon we will probably hear about the QE2 annoucement. This has pretty much driven markets nowhere in the last 2 weeks as we continue in this extremely tight trading range. So it seems that tomorrow afternoon we should break the tension. MLPS holding at new all time highs and they are up fractionally this morning.

On the corporate side this morning Magellan Midstream (MMP) announces great earnings, raises guidance, and says everything good but the stock price apparanetly had it all priced in except for 10 cents which is what the stock is up right now. Not much else happening on the tape this morning.

Gotta go vote and then to work but will be posting later today and tonight on elections, as long as the stomach flu doesn't send me to bed early.

Monday, November 01, 2010


I tried to make the headline all "e's" but the rates was the killer. However these will be the driving forces this week that will resolve the extremely tight trading range we've been in for almost 2 weeks. This is especially evident in MLPS which have been in a straight line range and Friday we closed above 353 which was a new all time high close for the index. The correction to the moving averages has not occured the way it has earlier in the uptrend. It seems that much will be resolved this week with the tremendous tension that is on the tape. And the coming move is likely to be big. I'm not sure which way. My instinct tells me down which means that it will probably be up!

This morning the news is sparse on the corporate side for MLPS. JP Morgan ups the price target on Capital Products Partners (CPLP) to 10 bucks while keeping the stock at a neutral. Overall market stock futures are higher but off the highs of the morning. Rates start the day lower. Energy is higher led by nat gas of all things! Metals are flat to a little higher.

Friday was the last day of the year for mutual funds which could be the reason why mlps ran higher in the last hour. It will be interesting to see how much if any of that gets undone today. I guess i lot of funds wanted MLPS in their portfolios for year end!

Btw for the election here is the lastest from Real Clear Politics as far as the House of Representatives goes. You can click on the links to the senate which lie just above the numbers.