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Friday, October 29, 2010


Sorry for the late post today but had a few things going on. Apparently no one wants to go home short into the weekend so stocks are making a run here in the last 2o minutes or so after doing much of nothing all day. Dow is up 15 points. MLPS are gaining as end of month pressures mean buyers are stepping up and we're over 352 on the index up over 2 points and a new all time high close is possible here.

Meanwhile 2 closes of significance to the number 4. The 30 year yield closed right at exactly 4 percent giving us something to ponder. I still think given all we know that long rates may continue to move higher in the short term as everything about QE2 has been discounted. Meanwhile it seems that everyone is touting the buy the rumor sell the fact mantra as far as the election goes. Given the very tight trading range we've been in for the last 6 trading days, I wonder whether the surprise Wednesday morning will be a rally no matter what happens. Same goes for the QE 2 announcement by the fed which has already been leaked out.

The second 4 in all this is nat gas which staged a huge reversal yesterday and the rally continues to day as we close above 4 bucks for the first time in quite awhile (allowing for contract rollovers etc) and this could be significant with colder weather forecast nextweek in the midwest and northeast. It may be time for a nice ride up. I dont trust the nat gas market but it is something to pay attention to.

So we head into the weekend firm and with much to ponder. The ex distribution cycle continues and ends next week as the last of the mlp holders lock their payouts. Next week could be exciting.

Thursday, October 28, 2010


I figured this morning they might sell into the number and then take it up from there and thats whats happened so far. Im wondering whether that spike down last week was enough to wash out the sellers. It might be nice if nat gas closed higher today which might make for another short term trading opportunity. Still its hard to fight that circling the drain feeling.

This watching paint dry mode we've been in since last Friday continues and the range is pretty tight. 11,000-11200 on the dow..and 348-352 on the mlp index. One way or another we're going to break out soon; maybe with next week's election and fed meeting. The 30 year has broken above 4% and we actually have a close above that level. The key will be the weekly close tomorrow and im thinking 4.10 is resistence...more so at 4.20 yield.

MLPS holding their own as the ex-dis cycle continues. The index is down less than a point and off the lows of the day.

Wednesday, October 27, 2010

The 3.60 drop on the mlp index is being exaggerated by the ex distributions of Kinder Morgan (KMP) and Enterprise (EPD) among others. The changes are for the most part contained at around 50 cents or so. Some standouts include Alliance Resource (ARLP) and Alliance Holdings (AHGP) as they are down 2 plus points on the LP and 1 plus on the GP off the earnings which were good but guidance was a little contained. Stocks have had big runs anyway so no big surprise here. Oneok(OKS) and Sunoco Logistics (SXL) losing major fractions. Some mlps are a little higher like Martin Midstream (MMLP) and Nustar (NS).

Dow is down 120 as we sell off on the WSJ leak. Rates on the long end went to 4.06 on the open but have pulled back closer to 4. Still the selloff seems relatively contained so far.

It appears that long rates (30 year) have at least made some sort of short term bottom as we will open this morning above 4% for the first time since early August. News from the WSJ that the feds actions on QE2 (quantitative ease) will be more measured rather than some sort of shock and awe. And their buying will be concentrated on securities less than 10 years. That means the long end, which the fed has little control of, will be able to rise in yield. Implications for mlps? Well one could come to the conclusion that the ride down from from 4.80 in late April to the bottom came with MLPS going from the 275 ish low in May up to 352 today. Are we poised to give all that back? Well doubtful without a full fledged market meltdown. First off the yield has to break 4.10 and then 4.20 for me to really start to turn negative for the medium term on mlps. But one has to consider that there could be a headwind developing here that may at least play into relative underperformance.

Earnings are on the table this morning for Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP) where it was a record quarter and we have a distribution increase. And of course what's good for the LP is good for the GP (AHGP). DCP Midstream (DCP) announces the distribution, and so does Martin Midstream Partners (MMLP), Holly Energy Partners (HEP), and TC Pipelines (TCLP). More earnings are due out later this morning and i will try and post the links for you.

Stock futures are a little lower this morning. Long rates open higher with the 30 year at 4.05 ahead of durable goods. Metals are lower as is crude. Nat gas is flat. The dollar is mixed right now.

Tuesday, October 26, 2010

Another paint dry day in the overall markets. After a down 75 point open the market has come back to the flat line and has been straddling it since 11am. Meanwhile mlps are up a nice 2 points and are bumping up near the top of the range and if we get a late day rally, we could see a new all time high close. This tight range trading has been going on for 3 days and the underlying tape is firm. We are going to break big one way or the other..and soon.

Earnings are on the table this morning from big boy Enterprise Products Partners (EPD) which they call "solid" and that should not surprise anyone since this company after all is a big boy. It continues to reflect digesting of the Teppco merger. Duncan Partners (DEP) always reports with its bigger brother and results were good too. Regency Partners (RGNC) announces its distribution this morning and that is the only other piece of significant news as we head into the open.

Some interesting action in the markets this morning so its time to play the charts and see if they tell us anything.
The short term charts of the 10 year and 30 year yield appear (and i say that with caution) to be putting in some sort of bottom. The 10 year went to a lower low 2 weeks ago but without the 30 year so there appears to be the beginning of a steepening of the yield curve. Its a small change but it is meaningful to watch if the mlp rally is going to continue. On the 30 year chart below the 34 day moving average is turning positive on the slope and may be about to cross the other averages which would be bullish for yields on the long side.

The 30 year chart in fact looks like its about to break out of its short term base and the first challenge will be the 4.10 level. A steepening of the yield curve is good for the economy, unless of course we are seeing the beginning of a rate rise as a result of the dollars demise. And perhaps the bond market is telling is that it is no longer willing to accept less than 4% yield if the dollar is going to be devalued to zero by the feds printing press. Remember we had a failed auction 2 weeks ago on the 30 year and that may have been the ringing of the bell.

The dow chart looks unphased as we wait for 11,205 to be taken out on a closing basis. MLPS have been stradling a ledge for the last week or so and i've been arguing for a pullback to the moving averages which lie below. We are long overdue. The ex-distribution cylcle kicks off this morning with Kinder Morgan (KMP) the first to go ex dis by $1.07. Couple that with some sort of yield rise; maybe that will be the trigger. So lets watch trading carefully today.

The dollar is stronger this morning and yields may make another run at 4% today. Crude is down a little. Stock futures are also down a little pre open. Nat gas is entitled to go up for a day or so and yesterday we made a new low but came roaring back at the close to a few ticks higher. After all they can't go down everyday!

Monday, October 25, 2010

At one point this morning every mlp and gp was up but we've come off that extreme. The index is up 1.70 and off its high when we jumped over 352 at the open. Its another attempt to resume the uptrend but we have this headwind around 352. The dow went over 11,200 this morning and is sitting around that level now. So the afternoon could bring a decisive breakout above the highs but keep a cautious eye to the exit door in case resistence holds.

Alliance Resource (ARLP) Holly Partners (HEP) Breitburn (BBEP) and Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) are half dollar winners and lead the list of mlps that are up. Some softness in Boardwalk (BWP) after earnings down 40 cents. Nustar (NS) is basically flat although Nustar Holdings (NSH) is the days biggest winner up 58 cents and just under 34. A few other losers are shedding small fractions.

News items dominate this morning as Gensis Energy (GEL) is buying up assets from Valero (VLO) as the big deal of the morning for 330 million in cash. Boardwalk Partners (BWP) announces earnings this morning that show nice increases in distributable cash flow and they also raise the distribution. I love those 1/2 cent payouts. Earnings are due out shortly from Nustar (NS,NSH) and conference calls all follow later this morning.

Stock futures ahead of the open are nicely higher and it appears we will be back on the door of 11,200 on the dow and mlps should open up higher as well. Bernake speaks at 8:30am so we'll see what he is up to. The G-20 meeting over the weekend did no harm. Crude is up and nat gas continues is circling of the drain as it heads to zero. Rates are lower ahead of the open and fed speak.

Some other items...this piece was interesting about the impact of bundling MLPS into ETFS...and the conclusion is not a pretty one if things go wrong. Frankly there is nothing shocking here. If ETFs cause a bubble to form in the group, then yes it makes them a ticking time bomb. But so is everything else for that matter. Hell judging from the ETF volume they pretty much trade by appointment only anyway. And Seeking Alpha has its 3 favorite mlps and also talks about the changing landscape and its impacts.

Friday, October 22, 2010

Could it be more boring?

That kind of day, in fact you might think it was summertime. MLPS are down a little as is the markets. Rates are up a little. And nat gas is spirialing down the abyss as it heads toward zero. MLPS themselves with only a couple of exceptions are fractionally either side of unchanged here at lunchtime.

There are some things however thay may be bubbling under the surface as we head into what could be a monetary weekend with the G-20 meeting in Korea.

If we look at these 2 charts of 10 year and 30 year yields it appears that we made some sort of short term bottom and there is room for some upside in rates. In fact the weekly chart of the 30 year has just gone to a buy on some of the technical indicators. It seems to me that the fed has made it clear it wants some inflation and its going to do whatever it takes to make it. That makes steeping the yield curve a priority and letting long rates rise. This would actually be a good thing as it would be a sign of the economy at least normalizing.

Now what of mlps. Many here have argued that going foward distribution hikes will offset any rise in yields on the long end and that may be true. However I continue to grow cautious in here as the group is ripe for some sort of pullback at least to moving average support. Right now thats from 330-340. Meanwhile nat gas just continues to fall as it heads for 3.00 and maybe a retest of the 2 handle we got to during the 2008 great unwind. Btw if the economy were really firing on all cylinders you would think nat gas would be rallying. But there is nothing out there for now which would pressures on what appears to be an endless supply.

TC Pipelines (TCLP) and Oneok (OKS) are down half about and are the biggest losers on the day. Winners showing gains of mostly under 30 cents.

Thursday, October 21, 2010

Well they tried to take em down but the market hit minus 40 on the dow and minus 2 on the mlp index and buyers have brought it back to the flat line. The last hour looms.

We COULD have a daily key reversal today (above yesterday's high..closing below yesterday's low) and a weekly key reversal is possible if we drop below 346 on the close tomorrow. Note of caution. Key reversals work better at the end of downtrends than at the end of uptrends. But a correction here to moving average support is overdue and no surprise really. MLP index is down 1.71 after being up 2. All market averages are now lower. Kinder Morgan (KMP) is down almost a dollar now and is leading the way lower. Enterprise Products Partners (EPD) remains higher by about a dime.

Btw the "heat map" on CNBC is another example of TV decending into ridiculous-ness.
The tape is really softening up in here and i would not surprised to see a sharp selloff late in the day. Went short mlps...or long the MLPS and btw i am the only trade of the day!
The tape felt a little heavy heading into the 11,200 print we got this morning. Then the dollar rallied and now stocks are well off the highs. MLPS actually have gone negative with the list split 50-50 between gainers and losers. The index is down a small fraction after being up 2 and around its all time high. It feels to me that stocks may pull back this afternoon judging by the feel of the tape.

Alliance Resource Holdings (AHGP) is down 1 as the biggest loser. Kinder Morgan (KMP) is down 20 cents off its earnings and distribution announcement. Oneok LP (OKS) TC Pipelines (TCLP) and Suburban Propane (SPH) are up on thier distribution hikes.

Nat gas is down to 3.37 on the front month as it just heads to zero i suppose. Its down 16 cents on the inventory number and crude is down 1.83. We have 3 dollar gasoline here in NY for regular. Ugh!

Hesitation is occuring near the tops here for both the MLP index and the dow industrials. Anyone who bought last April is now pretty much even (assuming you were in the right stocks) so there is hesitation. Its no surprise. What is surprising here is the increase in volume that has occured going into this top and while it is encouraging that volume is picking up here; if it doesnt go through 11,200 soon one might have to view the volume as a warning sign of a double top. These things are never easy. MLPS on the other had continue to do the stall here just off its high and its conceivable we could make a new high here today. But a correction to the moving averages has to come soon if the past pattern is any indication.

Earnings and distribution news came from Kinder Morgan (KMP) which of course came with a distribution hike. Suburban Propane (SPH) announces an increase in the distribution as the stock trades just off all time highs. TC Pipelines (TCLP) increases the payout. And Oneok LP (OKS) also increases the payout. No shockers here. The beat goes on.

Just about ready for the open which looks higher but nat gas is taking a hit (what else is new) ahead of stocks numbers at 10:30am. It might be selling ahead of the number which may be setting up for a reversal. Crude is down 65 cents and euro markets are higher.

Wednesday, October 20, 2010

Global LP (GLP) just announced a distribution increase.

You can't really gain too much from yesterday's decline which btw finished off the lows in the last 30 minutes. MLPS were up 15 days in a row and 19 out of 20. Now we've been down 3 of the last 4 but we are barely 1 percent off the highs. I still think its time for one of those trips down to the moving averages and with the distributions coming, it seems that would be the sensible time for it to happen. The dow closed down 165 but its been on a pretty much uninterrupted march higher to 11,200 and i still think at the very least we are going to see the dow print at that number. At that point we will determine if its breakout or fake out.

Crosstex Energy (XTEX,XTXI) after the close announced it is resuming the distribution at 25 cents per unit and 7 cents per share on the GP. This leaves Constellation Energy (CEP) as one of the few remaining mlps out there that have not brought back the payout after the Lehman meltdown. Not much else is happening so far this morning. Stock futures are higher after the selloff. The dollar is lower. Crude and nat gas are higher ahead of stats at 10:30am. 30 year rates still under 4% but looking for another run to that level sometime soon.

Tuesday, October 19, 2010

Sellers came in at 2pm and the dow is down 200. MLPS down 3.

Certainly the market had every excuse to go down and we did take a trip down below dow 11k but now we are well off the lows with the dow off just 85. MLPS are down 1 and some change on the index but outside of some fractional moves there isn't too much going on of note this morning. Long rates are up a little and would be back over 4 on the 30 year except for the stock market being down however if we see stocks recover, i would look for rates to try to take out the 4% level there. So far the mlp correction off the high last week has been relatively contained.

We'll keep our eyes on the tape this afternoon to see if we get a rally back to the flat line. The tape still looks bullish overall.

Monday, October 18, 2010

As promised Atlas Pipeline Partners (APL) and Atlas Pipeline Holdings (AHD) resumes the payout. Now the question becomes one of whether they will be able to grow the distribution from here.
Market is up a little and mlps down a little although when you look at the list many mlps are pretty much sitting between plus and minus 50 cents. Alliance Holdings (AHGP) and Copano (CPNO) are down 80 cents or so as the biggest losers. No standout winners except for Amerigas (APU) which is up nearly 1; perhaps on the Seeking Alpha story. The mlp index is down about 60 cents. Pretty much like watching paint dry so far today.

There are interesections and crossroads looking everywhere this morning and we have to ask ourselves what are (if any) implications to last week's failed 30 year bond auction that sent yields in the 30 year back to 4%. First off lets be clear that this could be the first of several warning bells that will be sounded that long term rates have finally hit some sort of bottom. And if that is the case, will MLPS surrender their market leadership position. All this and the dow industrials are coming to the top of the range and poised for a breakout at 11,200. Lots of things to ponder here. The overall tape technically remains positive. MLPS are at the point where a correction is imminent which would mean down to 325-337 support zone. But i keep coming back to the bond auction and wonder whether investors are telegraphing that they are no longer going to accept sub 4% yields for bonds that dont mature until 2040. The mlp/treasury yield spread still remains so high above the long term normals of 2-3% that we could see raise rise by 100 basis points or so and not see much impact in mlp price. The extra spread is probably reflecting economic stress rather than yield stress. Still there is alot out there for us to pose the questions that the unrelenting 2 year mlp bull run may begin to slow down.

This morning on the news front we have Barclays and Morgan Keegan downgrading Copano Energy (CPNO) to market perform which will send the stock lower at the open. Morgan Keegan is also downgrading Markwest Energy (MWE) to market perform. Valuation is the reason for the downgrade. Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) is constructing 2 new pipelines. Seeking Alpha has this piece on Amerigas(APU) as a propane play this winter if a shortage in propane developes.

Markets are fairly flat this morning. Crude is now up, nat gas is down but off the lows. Rates are lower after Friday's spike higher. So wake up to a good Monday morning coffee and let the games begin.

Friday, October 15, 2010


Is this what happened yesterday when the auction of 30 year bonds did not go well at all. In fact it could be considered in my view a failed auction and since then we've seen long rates spike rapidly higher and this morning we cracked above 4%. As of this post we are at 3.99% The reason this is important is that perhaps, for the first time, the market is beginning to signal that inflationary expectations are becoming an issue to market participants. It is also important for MLPS at least in the short term in that the recent rally leg that began about 50 mlp points ago came with this decline in yield that began from last April when the 30 year was at 4.80%.
Granted rates are not the only factor that took us from roughly 275 to 350. But with long term rates perhaps at the onset of some sort of short term rally, one must consider whether a headwind for mlps has arrived that will, at the very least, send us back to the moving average uptrend lines. On the otherside of this is the fact that MLPS being interest sensitive would probably cause the group to start moving down months before long term rates start rising in a serious way (back to say 5% on the 30 year). Todays trading in mlps will offer us an interesting clue.

No corporate developements this morning and no upgrades or downgrades. The dollar is falling against the Euro. Energy was lower this morning. Stock futures are higher this morning.

Thursday, October 14, 2010

CORRECTION! That is in my earlier post and my apologies. The short MLP index symbol is MLPS and not MLPI. MLPI is the infrastructer mlp index (AMZI). The short product is 1x the mlp index and has not traded any shares today although there is a bid and ask. Enterprise and Kinder Morgan are the 2 big components in here. Im sorry for the mix up.

Here is a link to the Alerian page describing it and from there you can link to their other products.
Wells Fargo took out the axe this morning and cut a number of mlps. Holly Partners (HEP), Alliance Resource (ARLP), and TC Pipelines (TCLP) were all cut to underperform while Plains All American (PAA) Sunoco Logistics (SXL), Magellan (MMP) Targa Natural Resource (NGLS) and Nustar Holdings (NS) to market perform from outperform. All the stocks are down major fractions to a point except for Holly Partners which is down 1.87. The mlp index is only down 1 because they did not cut Enterprise (EPD) and Kinder Morgan (KMP) which are unchanged to higher by a few pennies.

Some weakness here at lunchtime in the overall market but not by much. Dow is down 25. Energy stocks as a whole are down only fractionally as a group. Nat gas is up with the dollar down.

Up 14 days in a row. The last streak was 14 up in 16 days which resulted in a pullback. So anyday now we are going to get one of those sharp selloffs that take us down to support which now rests at 335. Now for those of you who want to trade this, and it is not for the faint of heart, one could try using the short MLP 2X ETN (MLPI) which will move 2x the percentage down move of the mlp index. Of course if your wrong you will lose money twice as fast. Also note that the short ETN is leveraged heavily to Enterprise Products Partners (EPD) which makes up a large percentage of the index. So that one MLP and probably some Kinder Morgan (KMP) will be the primary drivers. Speaking of the ETNs they do pay a dividend and they all just went ex dividend. Here is a list of the payouts. Even the short ETN pays a distribution. Im not sure how that all works.

Enterprise Products Partners(EPD) raises the distribution and so does Duncan Partners (DEP). UBS this morning is raising the target price on Genesis LP (GEL) to 25 from 22 dollars but leaves it as a neutral. Not much else happening on the corporate side. Stock futures are a little higher this morning ahead of the open as another attack on dow 11,200 seems likely.Oil is up and nat gas is down. Inventory numbers are due out later today.

Wednesday, October 13, 2010

Genesis LP (GEL) annoucnes a distribution increase and so does Calumet Specialty Products (CLMT). Both stocks are showing fractional gains.

Still hovering just off the highs of the day on the MLP index.


We are rapidly approaching dow 11,200 here with the market up 124 on the industrials and mlps up a touch under 2 1/2 points here and over 351.

There appears to be a bit of a buying panic going on right now in some issues and energy especially has done very well these last couple of weeks. The question of course will be what happens when we hit 11,200 here and for mlps; we are getting awfully extended in here as we are reaching a point where we should pull into the 34 day moving average. But i'm not fighting the tape. Speaking of not fighting the tape we should perhaps look at these other charts and see what we can figure out from these trends.

There appears to be at least a short term bottom in the 30 year yield which makes sense considering the stock market's rise. So far its nothing more than a short term bottom and a trading rally but the key level will be 4% and whether we can decisively break through there. Also notice Exxon which has been in the dog house for months is emerging from a similar base that the dow has formed so it could be that Exxon is emerging as a leader here and 70 would be a key level to watch. Some nat gas stocks look like they want to rally. Nat gas shows nothing encouraging other than a short term bounce.

Oneok (OKS) Natural Resource Partners (NRP) and Plains All American (PAA) lead the way today up strong fractions to a point. Atlas Pipeline Partners(APL) is doing quite well in here as it cracked the 20 level for the first time in nearly 2 years. The company did say it plans to bring back the distribution this quarter and we will know about this soon enough. Crosstex (XTEX) is another one that plans to bring back a payout this quarter. Almost the entire group is higher. No notable losers. Holly Partners (HEP) and Alliance Resource (ARLP) are down fractionally but none of this is news driven.

At the highs of the day right now with afternoon trading about to begin.

Tuesday, October 12, 2010


We are up 12 days in a row, 16 of the last 17, and 23 of the last 28. Baseball teams should be this hot! So short term we are in one of those places where a pullback to the 34 day moving average could come at anytime. What the trigger mechanism will be? Thats hard to say. However we are in an options expiration week which in the past has caused some quick downside movement. Right now the 34 day moving average sits around 333 so we're talking about 5% here. Im not saying it happens today or tomorrow but we are getting pretty extended and a pullback would be in the longer term pattern that has been so typical since the bottom in mlps in december 2009.

Plains All American (PAA) is increasing the distribution by three quarters of one cent to 95 cents! I guess 3/4 of one cent is better than nothing (but not much better!). No other headlines so far this morning and no upgrades or downgrades. Stock futures are down a little and off the overnight lows after a sell off in Asia. The dollar is rallying this morning and bonds are a little lower in yield. The open looms shortly.

Monday, October 11, 2010


Its pretty much a no brainer her that the dow is heading back to its spring high around 11,200 and its also pretty much a no brainer that the bottom of the range is around 9800-10000 so we can certainly argue (and do) that this may be the new normal for us as we swing back and forth from bottom to top; unless of course we take that 11,200 out decisively and on volume. So my guess is we get there in short order in the next couple of weeks and then outcome might hinge on the election outcome. Or perhaps it will be buy the rumor sell the news.

MLPs meanwhile just continue on their merry way higher and as far as an upside target..well who knows? My best guess here is that we move at least in line with other market averages. This of course assumes interest rates remain flat or at least don't start rising steadily. There is no sign of a final bottom in rates and the spreads between bonds and mlp yields will only get wider with the next round of distribution increases. The range historically (until the 2007 top) was mlp/treasury spreads of between 2 and 4%. The rule that worked was you bought mlps at a spread of 4% and sold them when they got to 2%. We have been outside that long term normal spread for nearly 3 years and as long as there is a perceived long term stress on the economy, its likely that the spreads will continue to remain outside the normal range.

We are in semi holiday mood today with banks and bond markets closed due to the Columbus day holiday. Stocks will trade a full day on sub normal volume and i doubt we'll get anything meaninful today. We are starting the day with a slight bullish bias. Energy for the most part is down a touch ahead of the open. Rates are unch in their closed enviornment. And for mlps there is no news and there are no upgrades or downgrades.

Saw this over the weekend on Oneok LP (OKS) by Jim Jubak who is a fairly reasonable anal-ist. Its short but to the point.

Friday, October 08, 2010

Targa Natural Resources (NGLS) kicks off this quarter's round of distribution increases.

11,000+ on the dow and two ticks short of 347 on the mlp index in the land of all time highs. Now its the weekend!

Employment numbers came and went and with no factor one way or the other, the path of least resistence is up. Ahead of a 3 day weekend the dow is up 70 points as we head into the last hour. MLPS were down most of the day but now they have turned up and remember yesterday's gain came pretty much in the last 45 minutes. It looks like we may be trying to do the same thing again.

Sorry for no morning post but its been a busy day ahead of a 3 day holiday weekend. Markets are open Monday but bonds are closed.

Thursday, October 07, 2010

A mad rush into the close with Oneok (OKS) Markwest (MWE) Nustar (NS) and some other soaring and the index closed up 2.66 and at new all time highs. Not sure what drove the buying surge into the close but the index is beginning to get a bit extended. But bull markets are like that.
Watching paint dry as we consolidate just below the unchanged level. Raymond James starts coverage on Exterran with a buy and a 25.50 target and the stop is up 50 cents. Not much movement elsewhere. I am enjoying the collapse in nat gas as it heads for zero. And btw the two most advertised obvious trades were to be long nat gas and long yield and both turned out to be the biggest busts of 2010.

The chart speaks for itself. New all time highs. Uptrend continues. And until rates finally stop falling and stop rising, the trend is your friend. Simple and to the point. Short term a pullback may be coming soon as we are up 12 of the last 13 days and we've gone 6 weeks without a pullback to the 34 day moving average. We mentioned this yesterday. At least this morning we start with an up open.

No news this morning and no upgrades or downgrades so lets forge ahead to the open and see where it goes. Dow opens probably above 11k with stock futures higher this morning.

Wednesday, October 06, 2010

The land of new all time highs. Notice that we are now up 13 out of the last 14 days and we have gone 6 weeks without the obligatory pullback to the 34 day moving average. Just putting it out there. At some point a pullback is in order. But not until market tailwinds turn into headwinds.
Heading into the close we are up over 2 points and near the highs of the day; just a few ticks shy of 344 on the index which will be a decisive new all time high close.
Up 2.02 as rates collapse to new lows. A decisive breakout today in MLPS but we of course will be looking for that record high close. Fractional gains across the board in a large number of mlps with Alliance Resource (ARLP) and Alliance Holdings (AHGP) leading the way and many major mlps are sitting at or just below either new 52 week highs or new all time highs.

Dow down a few points. Nasdaq down 1 percent. Profit taking near 11000 continues. So far it looks pretty orderly and uneventful.

We traded almost a full point above the old high close of 342.20 and in the last 15 minutes yesterday, some selling took us under 342 for the close. Still it is the highest close since July of 2007 and it completes a round trip down to 145 to which we are approaching the 2 year anniversary. It took 23 months to get us back to all time highs while the rest of the market remains some 30% below its all time highs. All this plus sizeable distributions. Who is better than us?

Futures are higher but off the highs after a bit of a disappointing number on ADP. 11,000 is on the radar for the dow today and this could trigger off some short term profit taking. We also have the employment numbers on Friday which are the last numbers before the election in Novemeber. Crude is down this morning but nat gas is up a few ticks ahead of oil numbers.

MLPS not doing much ahead of the open with no corporate news drivers and no upgrades or downgrades so far.

Tuesday, October 05, 2010

Sold off to just under a new all time highs while dow finishes. Just off the days high.
About to touch the 343 level and in new all time high territory. Looks like we will achieve a new all time high close on the index today unless the market completely falls apart, and judging by the action today it seems highly doubtful. Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP) is a 1 point winner and leads the winners list. Lots of fractional winners among the big mlps. Only a handful of losers with Martin Midstream (MMLP) down 40 cents as the only loser worth noting and no news driver here to speak of.

Japan slashed rates to zero (only took them about 20 years to figure that one out) so markets are reflating.


The markets are set to open sharply higher this morning and with energy stocks up in the premarket and flat rates..we could see new all time highs right out of the gate for MLPS. 342 is the magic place and we may be ringing the celebratory bell today.

Nothing much happening this morning in the group. There may have been some sort of anal-ist move on Atlas Pipeline Partners (APL) but no confirmation yet. Looks like the road to 11,200/342 remains uninterrupted..though we will get to our goal first.

Monday, October 04, 2010

MLPS trying to come back to the flat line here while the market remains lower by just under 100 dow points. Many mlps have turned higher in the last hour or so though only by a few pennies or at least the losers have cut their losses.
The paint drying process continues after the morning sell off and watching it has been nothing short of agonizing. MLPS are down but not by much. The dow is down a little less than 100 points as fo this post. Crude is a little higher..nat gas a touch lower. One big DUH!
Not doing much so far this morning with the MLP index down a small fraction and hovering above 340. Dow is up 5 points or so as of this post. No outstanding moves in either direction except for Oneok (OKS) which is down 50 cents and Quicksilver Gas (KGS) which is up 75 cents on no particular news.

We are about 1.60 below all time highs on the MLP index and its entirely concievable that we could reach it today on any rally attempt. No news drivers this morning on the corporate side. Always fun to wake up on a Monday morning with a deal or two but not happening so far this morning. Westlake Chemical (WLK) is buying up some assets from Kinder Morgan (KMP) though Kinder Morgan will continue to manage the pipeline. There was also this interesting piece on Seeking Alpha about the impending west US water crisis. Kinder Morgan is mentioned and stands to benefit as demand for nat gas will increase to compensate for the drying up of the western water sources. Nat gas will have to be used to provide power replacing water which continues to decline thanks to a drought and overuse. Of course demand for nat gas should be bullish longer term for that commodity which never goes up..ever. Interesting read. By the way we have been focusing on the MLP 2X ETF (MLPL). Well guess what kids. If you want to go short there is this new ETF (MLPI).

There is one more deal to talk about this morning as Eagle Rock (EROC) is aquiring assets that are accretive according the the release. EROC once traded in the lower 20s but its one of those mlps that has never made it back out of single digits and it won't until it gets the distribution going in the double digits.

This morning we hav slightly weaker futures as the dow aims for 11,000. Looks like mlps will get to all time highs before the dow gets back to the highs of last spring. The dollar is a little higher this morning after being lower earlier. Crude is a few ticks higher and nat gas a few ticks lower. The two year has hit a record low yield this morning of 0.43% while the 10 and 30 year are above their recent low yields but not by much. Euro markets are lower ahead of the open which looms shortly.

Friday, October 01, 2010

MLPS now up 3 on the index and well over 340. All time highs by the close? Not impossible.
I corrected the poll for the correct MLP alltime high.

Which will happen first. Dow 11000 or MLP 342?
Dow 11k
MLP 342
ITS A DOUBLE TOP!!! free polls
342.14 is the actual closing high set back in july of 2007. We are ticks away from 340.
We are but 1 point away from all time highs. We're at 339.39!

After the open the mlp index is up 1 and is nearing the 340 level which would be new all time highs. The 145 and change intra day low anniversary comes in mid November so it would mean that we got it all back and then some in less than 2 years! And while some mlps did not make it back (Hiland, Constellation LP, and a few others) most have made it back and if you were in the right ones you can say..what bear market?

Suburban Propane leads the way this morning up 92 cents and is among the mlps hitting new highs on a daily basis. Enbridge Energy Partners (EEP) and Sunoco Logistics (SXL) are major fractional winners. Nothing of note really on the losers list. Those that are down aren't down by much. The overall market is up 60 dow points and the next level of importance will be the 11k level. Which one happens first. Dow 11k or mlp 340? Lets take a poll!

Which will happen first. Dow 11,000 or MLP 340?
Dow 11k
MLP 340
they will both happen at the same time.
neither level will be achieved free polls

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