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Monday, February 28, 2011


Given all the turmoil in the middle east i suppose it might be a surprise to some that the world did not end over the weekend. Markets seemd okay with going into the weekend on a firm note and since we're still here this morning, we are seeing prices firming in the futures. So looking at the dow chart, the rising moving averages and uptrend lines it appears that this melt up rally continues until something stronger than nations being set ablaze rattles the market. This is the 10th time since 1980 that oil prices have risen 10% in 2 days and in each case the market fell an average of 9% in the following 6 months. I hate to say this but..maybe this time its least in the short term since markets just refuse to go down
MLPS on Friday just ran from the get-g0 and closed at 380.35 up over 4 points and at a new all time high. I guess we are staring at the 400 level as the obvious place to go with market tailwind. The chart is breaking out here and relative strength is rising. Add to that market tailwinds and tailwinds in energystocks and you have a perfect recipe for a continued rise. Rising rates (in general) are being ignored. Inflation concerns are being ignored as well. So let the ride continue.

This morning MLPS might have a little pressure from Kinder Morgan Partners (KMP) as the did an 8k filing saying they may offer to sell more shares from time to time. Not a surprise since the come to market every 6 months or so to sell stock so they are likely to do it again to take advantage of the high stock price. Markwest Energy (MWE) is going to announce earnings after the close today. Linn Energy (LINE) is annoucing 2 deals this morning and they are also doing a public offering of shares which will go toward paying for the new assets. The offering is rather large, 14 million shares worth are going to hit the tape. The stock has not traded yet but looks down under 39 this morning.
Lots of economic data due out this week including employment numbers on Friday so rates will be watched closely. Stock futures are at the highs now of the morning up 40 dow points. Crude was over 99 bucks overnight but has pulled back. Nat gas, shocking as this is, actually rallied strongly off the the long bottom it appears to be building. I guess selling for 1/25th the price of oil is attractive to some players. We will look for some followthrough today.

Friday, February 25, 2011


Weird week overall with the holdiay Monday and all the goings on in Lybia and like minded looney states in the Middle East. Still for all the turmoil and 100 dollar oil the market has only pulled back about 3% as measured by the dow and no uptrends have been broken so far.

And you would hardly know anything happened when you look at the chart of the mlp index which has barely pulled back at all and is easily within reach of new all time highs on the index. So for all the noise the market tail winds remain bullish.

Crosstex Energy (XTEX) puts up earnings and says that it has dcf to pay 26 t 30 cents per quarter distribution and an 8 to 10 cent dividned on Crosstex (XTXI). This may already be baked into this cake so watch for perhaps a little selling on the news. Otherwise its Friday which is usually a quiet day in mlp land. Markets are heading into the open nice and firm and oil is bubbling just under 100 bucks. The dollar is up against the Euro this morning. Nat gas is flat and still hovering at the bottom even though it broke below it yesterday for awhile. Bond rates are flat to a touch higher. No upgrades or downgrades that i can see so far.

Thursday, February 24, 2011


This has been a rather unusual "correction" if thats what you want to call it and it reminds me a bit of the summer of 2008 when oil zoomed to $150. Energy stocks were rallying at least for awhile before the overall market doom took everything down including crude. The last few days we have seen big spikes up in energy equity prices as a whole while the rest of the market has been going down. Note the dow chart has 2 down days in a row (gasp!) and we haven't even come close to threatening the uptrend that has been in place since last August.

The XOI chart is an index of big oil and you can see that big energy stocks really didn't do much in 2009 and it was not until last September that they emerged from their bottom and they have been playing catch up ever since. It wasn't that many months ago that Exxon (XOM) was below 60. Now we see MLPS holding up pretty well in all this so far.

No sign of any breakdown here yet and i would look at 350 on the MLP index as a place where i would get nervous about the uptrend. One big difference between now and 2008 is that the market is telling us that the economy 6 to 9 months from now will be still humming along but not contracting. That is probably the single big difference between today and the last oil price spike.
And there is no Lehman Brothers waiting to be unwound and the MLP disaster (145 on the index at the absolute low) that came with it.

No big deal to wake up to on the MLP front this morning after yesterday's Duncan/Enterprise merger deal. We do have earnings however from El Paso Partners (EPB) and they were very good as the company highlights significant growth in distributable cash flow. Baird is raising Legacy Partners (LGCY) starting it with an outperform and a 33 dollar price target. One mlp that has done well is Calumet Specialty Products (CLMT) as it continues its climb up from the depths of the 2008 bear market. Its moved from 19 to 24 in the last 2 months. The company was hit pretty hard the last time oil spiked and they were one of the first mlps to cut the payout. But they seem to be managing price risk so far this time around and the company is doing a public offering (like the rest of mlp land lately) to take advantage of the higher equity price. The stock is down 1.60 in premarket trading.

Overall stock futures are down this morning and they seem to be trading on crude oil's every tick. As i started writing crude was over 100 bucks and we are at 101 and some change as i type. Still stock futures have come well off their lows as of this moment. Bond yields are lower in a bit of flight to quality. Nat gas of course is down and right on its lows. Crude is now selling for 30 times nat gas which is once again at an historical (or hysterical ) extreme. If whole nations going up in flames can't move this commodity i'm afraid nothing will. And its too soon for hurricane season. I wonder if at some point today there will be a serious rally attempt. They tried yesterday but it didn't work as the market sold off in the last 20 minutes to a 100 point dow lows. MLPS have an energy tail wind but that can only carry you so far. Still they are doing quite well in the midst of this (so far contained) 2 day sell off. Bulls in my opinion still remain in control.

Wednesday, February 23, 2011


This was a no brainer when you think about it. With Dan Duncan gone and the fact that its really just putting together all the parts officially, Enterprise is offering $42 per Duncan share based on the average closing price of the stock in the last 10 days. The charts of the two stocks are wonders to behold as they have. Duncan has doubled since mid 2009 and it will jump another 7 or 8 points at the open as the stock closed yesterday at 32. Enterprise will probably sell of a bit in the arbitrage. The question then becomes who is next. One could say that since this was bound to happen anyway as the late Dan Duncan controlled both companies; still one can look around and get ideas. For one thing there is the trend of the LP's buying back the GPs and for that we have Nustar (NS) and Nustar Holdings (NSH). The CEO of NS owns millions of shares of NSH so it could happen. And we also have Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) and Energy Transfer Equity(ETE) and they have a piece of Regency Partners (RGNC). Im not saying these things repeat but some traders might think along those lines and give some of these things a goose at least at the start. Also since Enterprise is such a huge component of the MLP index, it might be a drag down on the index given the arbitrage with Duncan. So we will that distortion to deal with when the index prints out prices today.

All in the name of rising stock prices Enbridge Energy Partners (EEP) is announcing something that happens when your stock goes up in split it 2 for 1! We don't see stock splits in this group to often and while its really meaningless in terms of wealth, it does make shareholders feel good.

When all the Egypt news first broke we saw a 1 day stock market sell off which the market got back in the next 2 days. This morning stock futures are starting 5 points firm on the S&P. Crude is a little higher at just under 95 bucks. Saw a 10 cent rise in gasoline around the neighborhood yesterday. The Euro is up this morning along with bond yields as the fight to safety trade comes off a little. Nat gas does what it always does..down in the pre open. No other corporate news and no upgrades or downgrades at this time.

Tuesday, February 22, 2011

As market losses deepen so too MLPS are selling off down over 3 points now on the index and we have more mlps joining the list of 1 point losers like DCP Midstream (DPM) Enbridge Energy Partners (EEP) Atlas Pipeline (APL) Nustar (NS) and Alliance Holdings (AHGP)..all down 1 or more. Natural Resource Partners (NRP) remains the biggest loser down 1.35. The gainers list has really thinned out to a precious few and nothing outstanding. Energy stocks as a whole which were up earlier are now down with just about everything else. Dow off 160, Nasdaq off 66 and S&P off 24.
Markets held up pretty well this morning until about 11pm when Momar showed up on a Lybian stage. Markets have sold off since. Dow down 115. MLPS are down 1 and change. Nasdaq is down over 50. Atlas Pipeline (APL) is down nearly 1 on earnings but the stock ran up ahead of the numbers so its profit taking here. Natural Resource (NRP) is down 1 as the other big loser of the day. Most other mlps off fractions. Crestwood Midstream (CMLP) was up 1 on earnings but has pulled back.

Energy stocks were solidly higher earlier but now they are selling off and are basically unchanged on the day judging by the energy indicies that are out there. Dow and S&P are now at he lows of the day.

It took a few mideast nations being set ablaze but the result is a sell off to start the day in markets. However the risk premium in crude oil has increased as a result of all the turmoil in Lybia among other countries as the revolt spreads. Sky news Austrailia is reporting that a Muslim cleric has issued the order that Momar must die. Other Lybia and mideast developments can be found here along with a variety of opinion and context. The result was a lot of action yesterday as US markets slept for the holiday. Crude oil shot up as much as 8 bucks a barrel. Right now its up well over 6 dollars. Even nat gas is up 2%. When it takes a few nations to be set ablaze for your commodity to move up 2%, you know your in a bear market!

Now while stock futures are taking a hit of about 90 dow points and the S&P is down about 16, energy stocks are firm in the pre open. I would expect MLPS will hold their bids at least early on. The key to today's trading will be whether the news is just a trading event or a market event. My guess is that its a trading event so once the initial selling gets out of the way, buyers will come in to take advantage. That has been the pattern in this melt up we've been and i see no reason for that to change today.

Earnings news today from Atlas Energy LP (AHD) which was formerly Atlas Holdings and Atlas Pipeline Partners (APL) which reported strong results and a healthy DCF of 1.3x. The stock has been running into this so it may sell off on the news. No indications yet in pre market action. Crestwood Midstream (CMLP) is announcing results and also announcing that its picking up some assets. The stock also has had a nice run lately.

Nothing on the upgrade downgrade list so far this morning. Bonds are higher/rates lower with all the turmoil but the flight to quality is only on the order of a few basis points so far. Euro stocks are lower and Asia closed lower. Gold is rallying and the dollar is also catching a bid. Should be a fun day ahead.

Friday, February 18, 2011

MLPS are rolling along up 2 and change and now over 380 on the mlp index, and that is another all time high. Just about every mlp is higher with nice fractional gains from DCP Midstream (DPM) Williams (WPZ), Enbridge Energy Partners (EEP), Oneok (OKS), Magellan (MMP) Markwest (MWE) and Nustar(NS). Many are at or near all time highs or certainly at 52 week highs. The market wants to go into the long weekend long with the dow up 50 points.

Crude is up a buck and change and nat gas is not going down as its flat on the day.

Took a day off yesterday and it was another all time high close for the MLP index though by only a tiny fraction higher. The charts remain in their uptrend and what has become rather interesting is that we continue to see both the markets and the MLP index both pretty much in lockstep with rising long term yields.

Now i have been trying to push the idea (wrongly so far) that rising rates would be the catylist to send markets and mlps lower. And that may still be the case however note on the charts that no divergence has occured yet. Not even close in fact! Bonds in fact usually catch a bid on rare days the markets have been soft. So the trend being your friend means that until we start to see the divergence in any meaningful way, resistence is futile. The uptrend will remain in place. So im done fighting the tape and will stay until the party ends..but hopefully not much longer than that.

MLPS seem to be in a sweet spot with an improving economy and rising distributions and the market players thirst for yield. And energy stocks as a whole have been outperforming which gives mlps another added tailwind. This morning we have no news headlines and no upgrades or downgrades. Stock futures are flat along with crude. Nat gas is sitting right on the breadown point on the charts so today will be a critical day. The chart here is looking everybit like its breaking down and a new down leg in the bear market is beginning.
Of course....ever hopeful as i am...i am praying for a reversal here today so that we can at least be on tender hooks here for another day. You would think a strengthening economy would push nat gas to at least stop going down. But when you have an almost endless supply of gas and seasonals which now play against nat gas for the next few months, its hard to imagine this going anywhere in the intermediate term.

Wednesday, February 16, 2011

BTW i picked up some Kinder Morgan (KMI) around 31 bucks yesterday.
Atlas Holdings (AHD) has been lagging Atlas Pipeline (APL) for reasons probably having to do with the whole Atlas/Chevron deal and related arbitrage. Atlas Holdings (AHD) now leads the winners list up 1.22 and over the 15 dollar mark.

The tape remains firm this afternoon overall with MLPS mixed and energy stocks leading the way higher. Dow up 55 and heading back to 12,300 again.
MLPS are a little higher as the gains of the last 2 days get consolidated a bit. Alliance Resoure Partners (ARLP) is up about a point and at another all time high which it seems to hit almost daily. Cheasapeak Midstream (CHKM) Cheniere (LNG) and K-SEA (KSP) are moving by solid fractions higher. The latter 2 are showing nice percentage gains. No news on K-SEA. No significant news on LNG since last week.

On the downside Sunoco Logistics (SXL) is down a buck but that one is near 90 dollars a share these days. Alliance Holdings (AHGP) is down 50 cents and just off all time highs. Otherwise most of the losers are sheeding small fractions.

Oil prices spiked around midday on some middle east headlines. Iran is sending ships up the Red Sea to Syria. Brent crude hit 104 which is the highest price since October 2008. Crude West Texas is up 85 cents at 86 bucks. Nat gas was back at the lows this morning and has bounced off that now but its still down on the day.

So much for the rounding top as another upleg has begun here. It looks like 400 might be the next stop for the mlp index here as long as the overall market tailwinds continue. Technicals look pretty solid in the group and now the leadership seems to have shifted to the lower end where those stocks have been making some nice perentage gains lately.

Atlas Pipeline Partners (APL) and Crosstex (XTEX) have shot up recently. Buyers of Atlas Pipeline has been moving ever since this story that hit on January 27th which detailed changes in their hedging. No recent news on Crosstex (XTEX) other that they increased their distribution last month. Still these 2 have moved up nicely and Atlas is up 5 fold off the lows. However also bear in mind that they are both well off their all time highs.

Calumet Specialty Partners (CLMT) announces earnings this morning. The stock is bid higher in the pre market. Here is another mlp that has lagged a bit but with refiners as a group doing well lately, this one may have some room to go higher. No other news this morning on the tape so far. No upgrades or downgrades. The distribution cycle is winding down and your checks are in your accounts or in the mail. Stock futures this morning are nicely higher and it looks like the market continues its slow deliberate melt up. Nat gas held its low yesterday and so now we watch there to see if that has any meaning at all. Bonds are flat this morning so it looks like the market is okay with rising rates with 4 on the 10 year and 5 on the 30 year the new walls to watch.

Sorry for the lack of posts yesterday as i was on a double shift which makes posting a bit difficult.

Monday, February 14, 2011

Magellan Midstream (MMP) has news today as it acquires full interest in a storage facility. Stock is up over a buck.

MLPS up 4.20 on the index and at the highs of the day.
MLPS ran out of the gate and took off with energy stocks as a whole providing a good tailwind and no headwind from rising rates today. The index is up over 4 points and we have solid gains in Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP) and Alliance Holdings (AHGP) both up over 2 points and at new all time highs. 1 point plus gains in Magellan (MMP) Oneok (OKS), Western Gas (WES) and Sunoco Logistics (SXL). A whole boat load of mlps from Energy Transfer (ETP) to Markwest (MWE) and Transmontaigne (TLP) up major fractions. Only a few on the losers list that are losing pennies at this point.

Possible new all time high close on the index as we are back up near the absolute highs. Lets look for followthrough buying to take it through.

Its one thing to see a piece in the W.S.J. or Barrons but here is an MLP appearance in of all places USA TODAY! This of course is a concern since we are now appearing popular among the masses. The only thing more concerning would be something in the NY Times. Then we know the top is in!.

MLPS broke their 5 day losing streak Friday with a modest up close which all came in the last 20 minutes. It sure looks like a rounding double top is forming here but until we break 350 the bulls have full control. This morning corporate news is non existent so far. No upgrades or downgrades either so we trade with the overall tape which this morning looks flat. Interest rates are a little higher this morning. Asian markets were up overnight. The dollar is up this morning. Crude is flat and nat gas is lower. Nat gas is at the very bottom of the range and could be on the verge of another major breakdown if it doesn't reverse today. So much for the longer term bottom.

The melt up in the overall market has been pretty much unrelenting except for that little correction in mid November.
The rally from August 31 to November 15 was about 75 days and now we are 75 days from December 1st where the recent leg started. Its meaningless unless the trade works and at some point sellers will come in and take control. But after weeks of trying to come up with the catylist that will set this off, it appears that whatever it is...we don't know it yet. Rising rates didn't do it and Middle East turmoil didn't do it either. So whatever it is..we won't know it until after it happens.

Friday, February 11, 2011


UNG maps out the plight of nat gas very well (don't trade it) and this chart which looked like it was putting in a bottom...may still be doing so. However the look is pretty ugly here short term as it has been straight down from 6.40 and it looks now we are having a full retest of the prior major bottom at 5.20 in late October. Nothing ever seems to work here and a break below could take cash at gas (which is around 3.90) down to who knows where.Everyone knows we have more nat gas then we know what to do with. Why oh why are we not pursuing this on a longer term goal on relief from crude oil dependence is really beyond me

MLPS are down 6 days in a row and it looks like another lower start today although rates are coming off their highs of yesterday. 4.80% on the 30 year and 3.70 on the 10 year are the new walls. Markets still don't seem to care and frankly MLPS are shrugging it as well. I guess nerves won't really get frazzled until we get to 5% on the 30 and 4% on the 10. Meanwhile this morning we have no news and no upgrades or downgrades so far. The dollar is higher and stock futures are a little lower.

Thursday, February 10, 2011


Not to make too big a deal about this but we've had 5 lower closes in a row. But the move down has only been about 5 points from the top which is not exactly earth shattering. Still the upside momentum seems at least for now taken a breather. Weeks ago I mentioned 350 on the index as the important level to watch and nothing really has changed as far as that goes. Its a bull market until further notice however the chart continues to give one pause.

Down start this morning as Cisco System is getting murdered in the pre market down over 2 points and it is a dow component. Crude and ant gas are lower pre open. Rates are about even with yesterday's close as we wait for the 30 year auction results at 1pm. The corporate side is quiet this morning and the fire at the Enterprise unit in Texas is no longer having any news impact.

Finally this morning, you can't say you don't get the latest news on what Apple Computer is coming out with. It may help you physically on your trading platform!

Apple Fans Chopping Off Hands In Anticipation Of New iHand

Wednesday, February 09, 2011


Enterprise Products Partners which usually makes news by increasing the distribution every quarter had something far more serious to deal with yesterday. Here is the latest on the explosion which, so far, has had a small impact on the stock price.

Also we have the raw video from Associated Press. Not much new here except that it doesn't appear this is going to be anything that hurts the company in the longer haul like we saw with BP and the gulf oil accident. But these things have a way of evolving sometimes so we will keep a watchful eye. Meanwhile the stock chart looks like a double top formation is in place and that could be another signal that MLPS and there outstanding bull market of the last 2 plus years may be winding down. Enterprise is a large component of the mlp index. Its up 35 cents in a few pre market trades.

Not much else in the way of news on the corporate side this morning. Some other headwinds are showing up today with stock futures lower but nothing earth shattering. Rates yesterday climbed to 10 month highs as the 30 year is now at 4.75% and the 10 year now at 3.70%. MLPS may (finally) start to pay attention to this and we should as well. The distribution cycle is winding down here. Its a long 3 months until the next payout and short term holders may have the fingers on the sell button in here so be advised of the possibility that there could be a rush out of here if rates continue to move up. No upgrades or downgrades to speak of this morning. Nat gas is selling off again as the prospect for colder weather takes a break over the next 2 weeks..or at least not as cold and stormy as it has been. We seem to be in that 1 to 2 week break that usually occurs in mid to late January. In past winters the original pattern comes back for a second round so we will be looking for that possibility. Still its nice to finally see some bare ground and grass!!

Tuesday, February 08, 2011

Like watching paint dry today. MLPS are down by 1/2 a point on the index. Most moves are fractional in either direction. Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP) is up 70 cents as the biggest winner..and we have Breitburn (BBEP) down about 60 cents on its stock offering. Other than that there is nothing outstanding going on in either direction.

Dow up 30 points and off the highs. Bonds are a touch higher as we wait for results of the 3 year auction.
3 CHARTS....1 TOPPY????

Guess which of the three charts here looks the most toppy. Yes..ding ding ding ding...the MLP index!!! Now before we panic here people lets point out a few caveats in that topping concept. First off we'refinishing another distribution cycle which usually brings out sellers who only hang around for the payout. Then there is the secondaries that have been coming from companies in the last 2 months adding more shares to the mix. In an uptrend those offerings are wonderful buying opportunities.

And its not unusual for leadership to take a breather from time time but the we continue to see that 10 year and 30 year yields move higher. We have broken decisively above 3.50% on the 10 and 4.60 on the 30 year. So far the market has shrugged. But one must consider that the the longer MLPS don't move on to the next up leg, the probability of at least a short term top is increasing.

And speaking of corrections a must read here from Seeking Alpha arguing for a correction and that the great run in MLPs is coming to an end. There is a lot here to chew threw but in the end you have to ask yourself whether the once undiscovered space and the once perpeputually undervalued group is no longer undiscovered and is now approaching fair value. The spreads between long rates and MLPs has shrunk to about 3. At the 2007 top the spread got well under 2. Its not there at the top but the spread is no longer in the double digits.

Here is a piece on Motley Fool which pretty much explains what they don't understand about MLPS. They mix trusts and mlps into one group and argue players should stay away because dividends exceed earnings. I guess they don't understand how these things really work and that its about distributable cash flow (DCF). Breitburn Energy Partners (BBEP) is doing a 4 million share offering and the stock is down 1 in the pre open.

Overall the markets are flat but firm on stocks. Crude and nat gas are lower. Bonds are even from yesterday's close. And speaking of yesterday..took a much needed day off.

Friday, February 04, 2011


The montly set of jobless numbers are out and are so distorted with all sorts of factors. No one believes the drop to 9%. The job growth was miniscule. There were all kinds of weather related factors. And the end result is bonds selling off and yields are now approaching 3.60 on the 10 year. Stocks are a little higher on the news and there is nothing here to really put a stop to the head of steam that has built up. MLPS are going to start to look at that rising yield. Not sure if that's today, next week or next month.

Citigroup is busy this morning raising price targets on Linn Energy(LINE), EV Partners(EVEP),Brietbrun (BBEP),Legacy Partners (LGCY), Vanguard (VNR),and Pioneer Southwest (PSE) while it cuts the target on Constellation Energy Partners (CEP). Price target moves don't usually have impact but sometimes that can give you a nice goose for a day. Martin Midstream (MMLP) is down 1 and change in premarket trading on its public offering. Spectra Energy (SEP) is going to trade on earnings news this morning as its bid up a few ticks in the premarket. Also be advised that the cycle of ex distributions is underway with Nustar (NS) and Sunoco Logistics (SXL) going ex payout today.

The charts above show the unrelenting uptrend remains intact and still no sign of even a short term top. Every time a few sellers show up there are buyers that come in and take control. No change in trend until further notice. MLPS need to take out the recent high on a closing basis and thats a tall order when your going through the ex distribution phase. We are finally clear of the breakout point in yields so if they don't sell off here..then maybe the threshold for a run away from intrasensitive stocks is somewhere closer to 4% on the 10 year. After all if it goes to 4 it only gets us back to where we were last April. Short rates are going nowhere according to the fed chief.

Crude is up and nat gas is down this morning. Nothing earth shattering occuring overseas to move markets..Egypt included. Metals are flat to a little lower and the dollar is higher right now. The open looms.

Thursday, February 03, 2011

Down three points on the mlp index as 10 year rates break out above 3.50%. Energy stocks in general are weak. Atlas Pipeline Partners (APL) is up 1 today...the company is adding to its hedging strategy and i guess that has some people happy. Volume is approaching a million shares here which is more than twice the daily average. Nustar (NS) and Nustar Holdings (NSH) are both fracitonal winners today. Otherwise most mlps are showing fractional losses except for EV Partners (EVEP) which is down 1 and Global Partners (GPL) which is down 1 and change on its stock offering.

Nat gas inventories were taken bearish and of course nat gas is down in the area which has held up recently. Crude is down less than 1 percent as we head into afternoon trading.

Btw the last time Richard Kinder did an ipo in 1997 it made you 10x your money in 10 years. The latest IPO news is here on the return of Kinder Morgan to public trading.

The ex distribution cycle for MLPS is underway and thats going to cap some upside over the next week or so. Still MLPS are hovering near all time highs. Also hovering near a breakout is the yield market as the 10 year is at the magical line in the sand of 3.50%. I have been arguing (endlessly it seems) that this is a critical level. But let me put it another way. If the break above is not met with a rotation out of MLPS and other interest sensitive stocks, then the bull has full control!

High stock prices are met with secondaries and Global Partners (GLP) is selling some shares and the stock is down 1 and change in the dilution. Eagle Ford reached a deal with Anandarko (ADK) and this impacts Kinder Morgan (KMP) and Copano (CPNO) as they are part of that particular trinity. Other than those 2 items, its a quiet morning. The mlp index opens down 1.30 and the dow is down 12 points so far. The yield on the 10 year is at 3.53% as it breaks out to a new high. Jobs number tomorrow.

We have nat gas firm ahead of its weekly inventory numbers. They are out at 10:30am.

Wednesday, February 02, 2011


Its been a frustrating trade with an upside bias but it seems to me that if the markets are worried about a disruption of the flow of crude, does it not mean more demand for domestically produced nat gas? It may not make practical sense in that you can't just flip a switch and suddenly your using nat gas. But if you buy into the idea of an economic recovery of substance, i would think that would mean for increase demand. Anyway for the nimble among you it looks like higher lows on each trip its probably time to try for the top of the range and maybe..just maybe.. a break above it.

MLPS did okay yesterday on a spectacular day for the market with the dow up 140 ish and S&P up 20. We took out 12,000 on the dow and 1300.00 on the S&P. MLPS are just under new all time highs. Markets look to pull back a touch this morning but nothing problematic as everyone watches Egypt.

Magellan Midstream (MMP) puts up earnings and it was a good quarter with record DCF. It might wind up being buy the rumor sell the news. Not much else on the tape this morning and no upgrades or downgrades. Crude is up wiht nat gas. Rates are a little lower.

Dealing with an ice storm this morning. Snow is far easier!

Tuesday, February 01, 2011

Sure feels like a breakout with the dow at 12k and the S&P at 1300. The mlp index is up less than a point. Alliance Resource (ARLP) continues to roll right along up another 1.90. Holly Partners (HEP) Natural Resource (NRP) Amerigas (APU) and Suburban Propane (SPH) are nice fractional winners.

Martin Midstream (MMLP) is down over a dollar as the days biggest loser. Nustar (NS) Duncan Partners (DEP), Oneok (OKS) and Copano (CPNO) among the losers shedding fractions. Other than Martin no outstanding moves on the downside.

Its a pretty easy observation folks, don't fight the tape. Friday's loss has been re-couped in 2 days. Nasdaq is up nearly 2%.

So far that's all it was last Friday when the dow dropped 160. We got a third of that back yesterday but the big winners in all of this has been energy stocks which have took off. If the middle east decends into chaos, our own oil becomes that much more valuable. So those stocks were up sharply yesterday as they barely sold off last Friday. MLPS become that much more attractive especially with the yield play and they are back up bumping against new all time highs. So it looks like the bulls have another shot to clear 12,000 on the dow and 375 on the mlp index. And unless the interest rate market throws us a curve ball, or some mideast country really goes insane, the bulls have control.

Martin Midstream (MMLP) is picking up more assests as announced yesterday. Today we have earnings from Inergy LP which hit another record. Nustar (NS) puts up earnings that had record DCF and here is the transcript from the conference call thanks to Seeking Alpha.

Stock futures are starting the day higher with crude and nat gas a little lower. Rates are a little higher as the 30 year is back to 4.60% Still waiting for the upside breakout there which may come with jobs data tomorrow and Friday. Or maybe not. The dollar is lower this morning. Let the bull charge continue...for now.

Sorry about no posts yesterday as i had a death in the family and had a funeral to attend. I didn't get back until late last night.