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Tuesday, June 30, 2009


A good first half of 2009 for those of us who reside in MLP land. We began the year with the index at 176 and we are now at 222 up 46 points plus 2 payouts. That works out to a 26% gain with total return over 30 percent. Not too shabby. Crude has rallied back to about where we started 2009 and Nat gas continues to bounce along a bottom as it has not rallied at all and is down nearly 50% since the beginning of the year. I still think that nat gas is the play for the second half.

Look for end of quarter games to go on today and that could boost up some prices as portfolios get dressed up for inspection. RBC Capital raises Legacy Reserves to outperform from market perform. Otherwise we have no corporate headlines today. Crude and nat gas are running a little lower ahead of the open with stock futures flat but its early in the day.

Tropical Weather will be an issue one of these days but maybe not today as the tropics look about as dead as they could be. But then again this time of year usually is a quiet period even in the most active of seasons.

Monday, June 29, 2009

Teppco opens up 1.50 higher in the early going. Stefil Nicholas starts Oneok LP (OKS) at a buy and that mlp opens higher as well but has turned a few ticks lower. Wunderlick starts Transmontaigne (TLP) at a buy and its up 1.

The mlp index opens up over 1 point.

The deal was put on the table awhile ago but now its final and Teppco holders will get 1.24 shares of Enterprise (EPD) which gives us a closing price of around 31 bucks for Teppco holders based on Friday's close.

The combination makes this the largestpublically traded partnership out there. We have been hearing for months about consolidation in the group and we'll see if this lights a fire underneath some mlps today. But it is a boost of confidence to see this happen. Enterprise GP (EPE) will be getting 1.3 million shares of EPD in order to keep the 2% GP stake.

Also in the news this morning we have Breitburn (BBEP) re hedging their holdings and monetizing some of them and using the money to reduce their debt. They are also adding additional hedges.

This morning we have stock futures up a little. Energy flat to a little higher as well. Looks like we are going to have an up open to get things started on this holiday shortened week.

Finally we have the march to greatness this weekend!

When a horse takes out Ruffians stakes record you have to sit up and take notice.

Friday, June 26, 2009


Sorry for the late first post but im on triple shift with a fried brain. They sat down and did the math and reset the borrowing base for Constellation Energy Partners (CEP) which means a distribution cut. No surprise really but the stock price is getting cut by 30% today anyway. Its under 2.50 now. That is the big corporate headline today. MLPS are higher today with the index up nearly 3 and over 220 again. Looks like we finished the corrective move from 233 down to 210 in a hurry and we are now back in between those levels. The market itself today is mixed to a little lower as of this post.

Amerigas (APU) and Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) are the biggest winners today up 1 point or more. On the losing side just a few mlps are down small fractions. Crude is down but nat gas has turned higher.

There is disturbed weather in the Northwest Carribbean that will head into the Gulf of Mexico this weekend that needs to be watched for tropical storm developement. Just throwing it out there for weekend positions and perhaps for trading next week.

Thursday, June 25, 2009

Regency Partners (RGNC) gets an overweight nod from Morgan Stanley and the stock is up 1 and change today.

MLP index holding on the nearly a 6 point gain as we head into the last hour and the market has a head of steam as we move into the close.
Everything is up in mlp land today with the index up nearly 6 and closing in on 220 after being down near 210 2 days ago. Nustar (NS) and Holly Partners (HEP) lead the way higher up 1.50 apiece.Sunoco Logistics (SXL) Plains All American (PAA) Enbridge Energy Partners (EEP) Magellan (MMP) all up 1 point or more with the dow up almost 200.

Looks like the correction is over.

I still think Nat gas is bottoming. Higher in the pre open.

MLPS yesterday tacked on 2 plus points to 214 as we are straddling the rising moving averages here. Market moves yesterday off the fed meeting caused the usually amount of volitility. We are pretty much in watch and see mode here as we try and figure out where the next big move is going to take us.

We seem to be in a corporate news vacuum as we near the end of the quarter. Nothing on the headline list this morning. and i can't find anything on the upgrade downgrade list. So let us crawl to the open and see what happens. Stock futures are a little lower this morning after being up all night. Energy is up this morning ahead of nat gas numbers which we know will be bearish.

NY area has not seen 2 days of sun in a row all month and it has rained for 23 of the last 25 days. Its the third coldest and second wettest June on record. We're all moldy around here.

Wednesday, June 24, 2009

MLPS up sharply being led by Nustar (NS) which is up 2 dollars. I guess they must like what they are hearing at Anal-ist day. Atlas Pipeline (APL) is up 1 as Barclays upgrades the stock to equalweight. The mlp index itself is up nearly 4 points with the dow up nearly 100. We have a long list of mlps up fractionally.

Losers are few. Legacy Partners (LGCY) is down but off its lows as it recommends to end discussions with Appolo Management about a 14 dollar buyout offer.

If its just a correction then we have reached the limit on the chart folks so we are going to need to see some upside today. Durable goods was much better than expected so futures have a head of steam in them this morning. And we have a fed meeting ending today so 2:15pm will give us something to trade on. MLPS are looking to open higher with the rest of the market.

No news thiis morning on the corporate side. Nustar is having an anal-ist day and here is a slide presentation on what they are going to say. Watching for any headlines about earnings since in past quarters this company has pre-announced upside surprises.

Crude and nat gas are down a little this morning. Stock futures are soaring up 10 points on the S&P. Some preopen bids showing up in MLP land so we shall see in an hour.

Tuesday, June 23, 2009

We've turned lower as the mlp index is now down nearly 2 points and sitting near 211. All of the bigger winners are now the biggest losers by major fractions. Energy has turned lower as will with Crude and Natgas down after higher opens.

Dow down nearly 40 points at this point. The correction continues.

We've opened up and the mlp index is up 1.53 right now around 215. That's coming off a 6 point loss yesterday. We knew pullbacks were in order as discussed over the last week or so. None of this is a surprise really.

Buckeye (BPL) Nustar (NS) Magellan (MMP) and Sunoco Logistics (SXL) are starting off with fractional gains this morning. Most mlps either flat or a little higher with no big movers and no corporate developements to speak of. Crude is up 50 cents after a 2 dollar plus sell off yesterday.

I have my hands full this morning as i started a new job so i will post around lunch time.

Monday, June 22, 2009

All mlps are down with oil down 3 bucks and nat gas down 12 cents. The dow is down 170. The mlp index is down over 6 points and no mlps are up right now.

Goldman cut Plains All American (PAA) to a sell and the stock has been cut by 2 dollars. Sunoco Logistics (SXL) Markwest (MWE) and Atlas Energy Resources (ATN) are also down nearly 2 dollars each. Inergy Holdings (NRGP) Alliance Resource (ARLP) EV Partners (EVEP) and Oneok LP (OKS) are all down 1 point or more.

Doesn't look pretty for this afternoon. 210.52 is the 89 moving average level to watch now.
Plains All American (PAA) and Sunoco Logistics (SXL) are both down over 1 in the pre market with lots of stock on the sell side. Not sure what the news is if anything.

We've pulled back into the moving averages which is a logical place to go to if we are in a corrective mode which it appears we are. We are facing a weaker open this morning off of last week's options expiration. I would not be concerned unless we undercut these moving averages in a meaningful way.

Up 25% for the year is not too shabby for MLPS along with 2 distribution cycles. Usually end of quarter sees a slowing of corporate news flow. So far this morning we have no corporate developements and no upgrades or downgrades.

Nat gas has just turned a little higher this morning against the grain of everything else. I am still bullish short term on nat gas and continue to use the UNG. I still think 17 on the UNG is the first logical target and we we break out from there 18 and then 20-21 are the next logical stops. Dollar is a little stronger this morning..

Hope all you dads out there had a good fathers's day!

Friday, June 19, 2009

For the Dad who has it all!

I wanted to also let everyone know. Back at tax time Charles Schwab did my taxes for my ira to cover the UBTI issue. I trade mlps in my ira and have never had a tax issue. Well this year they came up with a tax due of 1100 bucks which i knew was wrong. And after much discussion and 2 months of waiting.....ta da!!! I was right. Its amazing what a misplaced minus sign in the income line of a tax form can do for your total tax due! The irs is refunding my account the 1100 bucks.

Moral here is...check check and double check..and when done...check again. You may indeed be right!

Been a difficult week for me personally as i've been hit with some sort of virus, maybe it was swine flu, who knows! And while it hasn't been too bad from the standpoint of fever which only lasted 12 hours, it has screwed up my ears, clogged my head, and caused me to sleep almost 13 hours last night which is something i haven't done since i was a teen. I do feel better this morning finally but the other challenge has been the weather here. 20 days straight of just about nothing but clouds and rain. And its the coldest June on record here so far!!! Oh well!

Okay mlps rallied back a bit yesterday up 1 and small change. It appears we are setting up for a higher open this morning. Some headlines on Dow Jones this morning concerning the battle between Quicksilver (KWK) and Breitburn (BBEP) as Quicksilver who owns a stake in Breitburn sends a letter to the board expressing concern over BBEP's equity shelf registration. Quicksilver tells the board they are basically nuts for even thinking of doing an equity offering at these levels and calls the board " out of touch" with reality. The battle there continues!

Stock futures are pointing higher as markets follow Asia and Europe with gains. S&P futures are up 7 right now. Energy is higher including nat gas. And btw while i was a little disappointed that gas sold off yesterday it did so grudgingly and held above 4 dollars. I really believe nat gas is absolutely sold out so i am not giving up on my UNG trade. Also love the fact that everyone and their mother yesterday on CNBC has given up on nat gas. Im still waiting for Joe Terranova's 55 dollar pullback on oil when he went short at 60. Hope he covered!

Thursday, June 18, 2009

We are gasbag free now as the flow of vocal crap from Washington is done for the day. MLPS up 1 on the index. Dow up 65 as we head for lunch.
Nat gas numbers were bearish which should be no surprise. Down for now but we'll see. Meanwhile markets waiting for gasbags to seek blowing in Washington. Dow up 64. MLPS up less than 1 point as we head into lunch.
A little weaker at the open for MLPS but the index has now turned higher by 60 cents as we make our way back to 220 or better. Dow is higher by 50. Nat gas a little lower ahead of weekly inventory numbers.

Sunoco Logistics (SXL) Plains All American (PAA) and Nustar (NS) lead the way with nice fractional upside moves so far today. E V Partners (EVEP) is down 50 cents and is the leading loser on the list for now.

Gasbags are blowing in Washington right now with Chris Dodd and his fabulous hair leading the glorious way.

We have been expressing our never to be humble opinion on natural gas lately and taking the position both intellectually and monetarily that nat gas is about to break out. The daily chart of the UNG certainly looks like its ready to breakout higher and today's nat gas numbers perhaps will provide the fuel. 17 is the first wall to get through. Then we have some congestion at 18. After that we have 20 and 25. If the UNG runs to 25 it would mean nat gas going to about 6 bucks. Not impossible.
BTW NYC along with Chicago are experiencing their coldest Junes on record. If this weather pattern holds into the fall its going to be a driver for nat gas heading into the winter season. And believe it or not some traders will soon be putting that concept on their radars.

The USO which reps crude oil has had a nice rally but at some point we should see a buyable pullback to its 34 day moving average which is around 35.25 or a 10% or so move down from here. So i guess if crude were to correct to say 64 or 65 it might provide an entry point.

Okay back to mlps. We have corrected to the 55 day moving average yesterday which is about 8% off the top. If we are in a bull move this should be about the limit. We cut the losses yesterday to less than 4 points at the close so we look to today to see whether its just a correction or something more.

Secondaries have been driving the big cap mlps lower which has been a drag on the index. Pretty much every large mlp has done a secondary and at least that means that they won't be coming back to the well for awhile. If economic conditions approve they may not have to come back to the well for the rest of 2009. This morning we have no corporate headlines and no upgrades or downgrades so far. Crude is a little lower this morning and nat gas is a little higher. Stock futures are basically flat. We have options expiration tomorrow and of course end of quarter approaches. So lots to digest this morning as we head into the open.

Wednesday, June 17, 2009

Magellan Midstream (MMP) comes out with guidance which is hurting the stock by a point or so. Net income will be hurt by higher crude prices.

Off the lows and off that 215 support line on the 55 day moving average. Waiting to see how we close. Nat gas closing near the high of the day!
Went right down to the 55 day moving average and that was it and now we are a point above it at 216.40. If its a bull move than the correction should be overwith but i will wait to see where we are at days end.
215 on the MLP index is holding so far today as the overall market has found the flat line at 8500. Meanwhile natgas is getting set to breakout?
Down over 6 points. This feels to me like a massive bout of profit taking in a group that was up 32% for the year. We are approaching end of quarter and end of half year so maybe this is a logical all be it violent correction in the mlp space. 210 would be as far as i would like to see this go without damaging the uptrend. The 55 day moving average is at 215.
Technically we could go down to 210 on the MLP index and not violate the uptrend. We've broken below the 34 day moving average at 220. We're down 4.50 right now. 1 point plus losses in EV Partners (EVEP) Holly Partners (HEP) Oneok LP (OKS) Enbridge (EEP) Markwest (MWE) and Atlas Pipeline Partners (APL). Atlas has doubled from 4 to 9 lately so thats a large percentage loss there. Large fractional losses elsehwhwere.

Nat gas numbers out shortly.
Oneok LP (OKS) prices its secondary at 45.81. Futures have turned softer ahead of the open but its not by much.

That is what is happening here with the mlp index now about to touch its 34 day moving average uptrend line. The dow industrials are doing the same thing so we are in a critical area and we will watch closely. We have bounced twice before from this and if the bull trend is going to continue we should see a reversal soon.

240 on the mlp index and 9000 on the dow still appear to be doable in this rally phase.

Stock futures are a little higher this morning. The energy complex is down a little bit but nothing tragic. CPI due out at 8:30am will be a market mover. No corporate headlines so far this morning. Oneok LP (OKS) should be wrapping up its secondary which was announced yesterday. Nothing on the upgrade downgrade list.

Tuesday, June 16, 2009

We are below 225 as the mlp index is losing ground on the order of about 3 points. Looks like we are headed for the 34 day moving average at 220.
Oneok LP (OKS) dragging the MLP index today. Oneok LP is down nearly 2 and the index is down nearly 1 point. Most mlps are straddling either side of unchanged at this point.

Penn Virginia Holdings (PVG) is up 69 cents as the biggest winner at the momment. Otherwise most mlps are between -30 cents and plus 30 cents. Overall market is up slightly.
Nat gas is on the move up 15 cents to 4.33 and the UNG is now at 16.25. 17 is the first wall.
Oneok LP (OKS) joins the list of mlps doing an equity offering. Down a buck in the premarket.

Feels that way this morning so far but there is some data out later this morning that will dictate the tone of the tape. Yesterday's decline is still within the context of this stair step formation on the chart where we consolidate sideways. So unless we see followthrough i would suggest the trend remains intact.

MLPS actually held up well yesterday and we closed right at the prior breakout point at 227 after trading below it intraday. 220 remains support in my view and any pullbacks to that level should be bought. No signs of any leadership change.

Duncan Partners (DEP) priced its secondary at 16.00 and is trading a little below that in the premarket. Not much else happening so far this morning. Energy prices are higher and nat gas is extending yesterday's almost 8% move in the premarket. The dollar is weaker after rallying sharply yesterday. Stock futures are higher by a few points this morning.

There isn't much else happening so far but i will post any breaking headlines. The sun is coming out this morning here on Long Island after 15 days in a row of rain!

Monday, June 15, 2009

Thanks Max for the Barrons heads up on Boardwalk (BWP). The stock is back over 22 and up 75 cents. Nat gas is rallying almost 5% today which is nice if you are long UNG. Otherwise its a 3 point loss on the mlp index as we head into lunch. The dow is off the lows and down less than 200. Alliance Resource (ARLP) Atlas Energy Resources (ATN) Holly Partners (HEP) Nustar (NS) and Duncan (DEP) all down 1 or more. Duncan has the equity offering underway.

Winners are few and fractional. Sunoco Logistics (SXL) is up 40 cents. Constellation Energy Partners (CEP) is up a small fraction but its a 4 dollars stock.
Don't see any news items but Boardwalk Partners (BWP) is trading up in the premarket. Not sure why. Also Nat gas has just turned higher.
Duncan Partners (DEP) announces a public offering of shares. Sell shares into a stronger stock price. Makes sense from the corporate side. Money will be used to purchase shares from Enterprise Products Partners (EPD) so this is basicallly Dan Duncan raising money to buy shares back from....Dan Duncan!

I suppose. We've been in bull mode for 3 months and for the year the MLP index is up 32% which is not too shabby and way better than the overall market which is up about 5% on the S&P. Stock futures are down this morning but lately these down opens have been the lows of the day as buyers come in on these short pullbacks. If we continue in bull mode pullbacks will take us to the moving average support lines. Note the dow has been in this stair step sort of pattern and if we are in another step mode in here then 8600 should be the floor. The mlp index can take us back to 220 where the 34 day moving average sits.

On the mlp corporate side there isn't too much happening so far. Eagle Rock filed and 8k announcing some more hedging. In another 8k filing Ferrellgas (FGP) is being sued by a San Francisco consumer group related to Blue Rhino which is that fabulous propane tank exchange. I use it all the time although Ferrellgas says in the filing that the entity is being sued for deceptive practices including paying for a full tank and getting only half a tank! So far this morning thats all we have as far as corporate developments. Nothing on the upgrade downgrade list so far.

Crude is about a buck lower but nat gas is a touch higher this morning. Maybe this is the week nat gas gets off the mat and climbs back over 4 dollars. I was looking at weather patterns overall and a couple of things i've noticed. This is a very chilly pattern for June. First time on record snowfall in the Dakotas in June, Chicago is having its coldest June in 50 years. Here in nyc its been cloudy and cool with an ocean wind for 10 days in a row and no break in sight. Its very cold in Greenland and i could go on and on. A few meteorologists who work on this are making comparisons to the summer of 1976 which led to the coldest late fall and first 1/2 winter on record in many areas of the midwest and northeast. January 1977 in many cities is either the coldest or second coldest on record. Not that things repeat exactly but if it were to copy that mode, then nat gas and heating oil look very cheap in here!

Friday, June 12, 2009

Buyers seem to be arriving for the last hour as the mlp index is now up 1 point and the dow is up 33 and near the highs of the day. Never a dull moment!
God today is torture. We are going absolutely nowhere on forever shrinking volume. A big move is coming soon!
3 servers are down on the NYSE which has slowed action for the most part. Otherwise it is a pretty boring day here with the mlp index up a small fraction while the dow is down slightly. Dull dull dull! No big moves worth noting. So far its just one huge duh!

Strange week so far when you look at the dow industrials. We were up 1, down 1, down 27 and up 31 so if you do the math we are net up 4 points for the week! The bottom of the range would be around 8650 and the top around 8850. On the mlp index we are down a little over 4 points and some of that is a Kinder Morgan (KMP) equity offering. Still some other mlps are pushing to heights not seen in many months. So overall at worst a sideways correction and we still have today to chew through.

Friday's lately have been strong and we have been going out on the highs of the week and there is a chance for the overall market to do that today. MLPS have to get to 233 or better so it would have to be a stellar day for that to happen. Not impossible however. This morning we have a typical Friday beginning. No news so far on the corporate side and no upgrades or downgrades but it is early.Stock futures are flat to a little lower. Energy is lower thanks to a strong dollar.

Finally this about bad luck! Its sort of like winning the lottery and then losing the ticket. Bottom line is...when your number is up...there is no way around it.

Thursday, June 11, 2009

Nat gas is extending its rally and the MLP index is now positive by a few ticks.
Nat gas is actually holding on to a gain after inventory numbers and its just off the high of the day. The UNG is up 36 cents! Glory. The nat gas futures contract is up a dime.

Noticed the dow utilities index has been behaving better lately. Not sure what this means but its another clue in here.

Magellan (MMP) and Nustar (NS) are the 2 biggest drags today on the mlp index as far as i can see.
An absolutely fabulous interview this morning on CNBC with Barney Frank who throws a massive hissy fit near the end. Worth watching.

And btw maybe cnbc will get around one day to fix their embedd codes so that when you post them they actually work!
Most mlps are higher this morning even though the index is down 50 cents. Im not quite sure where the drag is coming from. All the big mlp components are either flat or higher. Mystery to me as to why its down.

EV Partners (EVEP) is down 1 and change on its secondary offering and is the lone standout losers. Otherwise small fractional moves with an upside bias so far this morning.

Nat gas numbers due out at 10:30am.
Of course i spoke too soon and nat gas is lower again. Oh well. One of these days!!!

The mlp index has moved into another one of these sideways consolidation modes and with rising moving averages we continue to view the action as bullish. What has been particularly interesting is the number of companies coming to market selling equity and then within a week or two after the offering the prices of those mlps are higher than the offering price. This is actually a reversion back to normal trading behavior; the type we saw during bullish runs in 2006 and 2007. No arguements. The trend is our friend. Meanwhile speaking of offerings another one hit the tape late yesterday. EV Partners (EVEP) is doing a stock offering and they are also purchasing some assets and doing some more hedges. Stock is down a buck and a half in the pre-market.

19 to 1. That is the relationship now between crude and natural gas. The normal relationship between the 2 long term is...are you ready for this...8! So if we ever revert to the mean here the nat gas price can easily double or more. Somebody please tell that to the natgas traders please! It is beyond ridiculous but i continue to view nat gas as a good low risk buy in here. One of these days its going to rally and rally hard.

Not much else happening this morning. No other corporate headlines and no upgrades or downgrades so far. Crude is higher this morning along with nat gas, Stock futures are higher and today's trading waits for the final leg of the 3 day bond auction. Many years ago when auctions mattered in another era i seem to recall that the middle auction almost always went badly while the final leg usually went okay and then followed by a sigh of relief rally. It didn't always play out this way but it did so enough of the time. Note btw that the 10 year/mlp yield spread is shrinking from both ends here as rates rise and mlp prices rise. For now rising yields have not had any negative mpact on mlps and i suspect that for now its not a big concern.

Wednesday, June 10, 2009

Down a little at lunchtime with the MLP index after a higher open. Hitting the road right now. Will check in around 2pm.
Crosstex (XTXI) is up 25 cents and over 5 dollars in the premarket on the asset sale. Other uptics in scattered mlps in the pre market as well. Futures up 12 on the S&P.

Futures overnight and early this morning are pointing to a sharply higher open. Yesterday was another sideways consolidation day so it looks like we have another leg up in this rally that started in mid March. 9000 on the dow looks do-able and im still thinking 240 for the MLP index.

Yesterday the index was dragged by Kinder Morgan (KMP) and their equity offering. This morning we have news from Crosstex (XTEX,XTXI) which is selling assets to pay down debt. Not sure how much is in the already reduced stock price. Nothing on the upgrade downgrade list so far. Energy is sharply higher as well this morning with crude pushing over 71 bucks and nat gas up 12 cents.

Sorry for the lack of posts the last few days as i have been teaching so it limits my access. I also come home pretty fried brain wise. I should be back to normal posting today as i am not teaching!

Tuesday, June 09, 2009


For all the chatter out there about the death of this rally, it just keeps on going and in these instances you have to let the tape do the talking. Yesterday the dow pulled back over 100 points before reversing and closing flat on the day. These reversals were as you may remember absent during the long suffering decline. If anything the last hour of trading was often met by wholesale selling with both hands. Bottom line is the tape is bullish and pullbacks should continue to be bought.

MLPS which were not down hard by any means yesterday got back about half the losses on the day and that is not unusual as we sometimes take a day to play catch up.

There will be a drag on the MLP index today as Kinder Morgan is down 1.66 in the pre market as they are doing another 5 million share stock offering. They have the stock price they might as well use it. Also we have a stock offering for El Paso Partners (EPB) and that stock will probably be down at least a buck at the open. Nothing so far on the upgrade downgrade list but i would use downgrades as an excuse to add to positions given this enviornment.

Stock futures are stronger this morning and energy futures are strong too including nat gas which i believe may be completing a nice bottom formation on the charts. Using UNG as a nat gas proxy..17-18 is my first target.

The ratio of crude to natgas is 18-1 and we've only seen it that wide 3 other times and all three times were followed by very strong rallies. If you believe in the reflation trade, why should nat gas be left behind?

Monday, June 08, 2009

Ferrellgas(FGP) earnings are out this morning which were lower than estimates. Company blames a "warm spell" which is a very southern way to say we screwed up!

Figured i'd start the day with the UNG vs USO chart over the last year and we've had Natgas outperform crude oil from last November to Early April. Of course during that stretch it has meant that nat gas was just down less but still down. Crude has crossed back and has been outperming again.
The UNG chart of course i still believe is carving out a bottom and setting up for a nice rally into the low 20s at least. The end of Mark Santoli's column in Barrons suggests that the Natgas crude oil relationship is now at 18-1 which 3 prior times has led to montrous rallies; unless of course this time it just means that nat gas will be down less! I will be betting on the idea that natgas is at a place where it will rally. Just my never to be humble opinion of course. And if that is the case watch nat gas exposed mlps especially the ones that may have commodity exposure as they could benefit greatly. Could this be the reason why Atlas Pipeline (APL) and Crosstex (XTEX) have seen their low share prices move up lately?

Monday morning blues out there this morning with stock futures down and energy futures down but i'm not too concerned here as markets are entitled to pull back a little. The rally that started last March remains intact and the skeptisim is rampant which i think is great.
The Mlp index is still thrusting upward and we are up over 80 points from the low of 150 which is a huge 53% gain. We are almost half way back to the index high of 340. We need only get to about 240-245 to make that wonderful claim! No corporate developements so far this morning and nothing on the upgrade downgrade list but it is early. So it looks like a weaker start and then we will look around and see where this takes us.

Friday, June 05, 2009

Nat gas which rallied when the employment numbers came out; pre market the UNG went to 15.02 and then as the dollar rallied it fell to 14.04...has now turned higher at 14.62 and rallying with the rest of the market which followed a similar pattern. The dow is up 70 and the mlp index is up now fractionally. Its in a range between +1 and -1 so far today.

No standout gainers or losers for the most part. Markwest (MWE) is down 1.40 on its stock offering but there is no surprise here.
Markets soaring on better than expected employment numbers. Looks like a sharply higher open.
Markwest is down 2.25 in pre market trading on the stock offering.

When your stock price goes from 7 to 20 its a cause for happiness. If you are a shareholder that held all the way down from 40 to 7 and back to 20 you are half as sad. So after the nice rise its time to use the price increase to sell shares. And that is exactly what Markwest(MWE) announced yesterday so look for a drop in price today.

Meanwhile the MLP index got most of Wednesday's loss back with a 3 point plus gain as 240 looms just above here. We're the leaders so no reason why we can't get there unless the market completely falls apart in here. Unemployment numbers due out at 8:30am will set the tone for today's trading.

Nothing else is on the corporate news list this morning. On the upgrade downgrade list we see no entries yet but i would like to point out that Duncan Partners (DEP) was downgraded from buy to hold by some small firm. The stock opened down 1.75 under 18 and closed over 19 and up on the day. 2 things to take away from this. When tape action like this occurs its telling you that the anal-ist downgrade is probably wrong. And number 2 is if you are nimble enough you can pick up dumped shares at a bargain at the open as some reflex sellers dump into a vacuum.

I'm putting up the nat gas chart this morning to review yesterday's action where we opened higher..traded down on the nat gas numbers to the prior week's low and then closed just 2 ticks off the high of the day. It looks to me like we are building a complex bottom and if we trade above and close over 16 today it would constitute a nice reversal on the weekly charts as well. Right now i think we are bounded by 13 at the bottom and 17 at the top until proven otherwise. But yesterday's action to me was technically a good sign for the next few weeks.

I'm not working today so it will be normal posting action!

Thursday, June 04, 2009


Okay lets be honest here, no one expected the mlp index to go up every day without some sort of correction. We got one yesterday and the magnitude continues to suggest to me that the bull move remains in tact. At one point yesterday mlps were down 8 points to 225 before getting some of that back to close over 228 and above the 227.02 November high. The overall marekt continues to behave like a bull where sell offs are sharp and short and bring in new buyers. Stock futures are up this morning as are energy futures. Crude and nat gas took sizeable hits yesterday but so far there is no followthrough selling.
Its another early morning post as i am teaching today so i will be shut off from blogging but i will update via twitter when i can. Remember to check the sidebar for those quick tweets and you can follow me of course on twitter if you wish by clicking on the twitter link to me.

We have no news so far this morning and nothing has appeared on the upgrade downgrade list so far. Got a question yesterday about my nat gas position so i put before you a chart of the UNG.

I think we have broken the downtrend and we are now in a sideways mode bounded by 13-14 at the bottom and 17 at the top. I sold my position the other day above 16 as i made 2 quick points but i am still bullish and i bought back the entire position over the last 2 days so i am long and in fact i bought more this time so i am extra long. I am looking for another move up toward 17 and eventually a breakout above that which opens the door to a trip to 20. As always just my lil ol never to be humble opinion.

Wednesday, June 03, 2009


Up six straight amd 10 out of the last 12 days for the MLP index which seems to me wants to go to the 240 level before taking a pause. We closed yesterday over 233 so its only 7 points to get there and that puts us back to last September. Rising moving averages including the 200 day are nicely below us so a correction to 210-215 could occur quickly and at anytime but as i have been saying for days now, the wind remains at our back.
Also for those of you looking for entry points be advised that sometimes at the open you can catch a bargain as sellers try to move a block into a vacuum and you wind up with a good price. Take E V Partners yesterday which opened down over 2 points at the open on a large sale and under 20 bucks before closing near 22.50 by days end and up on the day. Holly Partners (HEP) did the same thing as it opened down nearly 3 before closing down less than 1. Just some food for thought if you are feeling lucky.

Kinder Morgan (KMP) may be on the prowl according to this Reuters piece. Makes sense as there are some cheap assets out there looking for a home. Otherwise there are no corporate developements this morning and so far no upgrades or downgrades. Markets look a little soft at the open this morning and energy is a little lower except for nat gas which is flat. Crude inventory numbers out later this morning and that will move prices. Lately everything in here has been bullish.

Saw some strange moves in Hess(HES) yesterday which was down 7 points on no news. Still nothing of note there this morning.

Tuesday, June 02, 2009


Nustar is on a tear as it adds another 1.25 and touches 57. It puts the stock on the new highs list and its only 3 or so points away from all time highs (adjusted for distributions) at around 60. Buyers who jumped in at the panic low of 32 or so are dancing in the streets right now. And longer term holders who went to sleep last summer only to wake up now might be wondering what all the noise was about.

Another 1 point gain on the mlp index as we break above 232. Some mlps that have done well lately like TC Pipelines (TCLP) Holly Partners (HEP) and Inergy Holdings (NRGP) are taking a breather today while Calumet (CLMT) Alliance Resource (ARLP) and Kinder Morgan Partners (KMP) are up strong fractions.

Looks like we're consolidating nicely yesterday's breakout gains. I like the expotential moving averages rather than the simple moving averages which means the S&P 500 is touching it today. The MLP index is above its 200 day decisively.

Monday, June 01, 2009

Well the Hiland takover deal is done now..or should we say take under! It sell high buy low here!

Also Atlas Pipeline Partners (APL) has ammened its credit facilities to give it more flexibility. Holly Partners (HEP) buys a New Mexico pipeline.
A few sellers have arrived. Keep an eye on DCP Midstream as it hit 20 intraday and is now down 50 cents and is one of the few losers. Plains All American (PAA) has also turned lower on the day. Otherwise not much has changed other than mlps have come off the day's best levels. It could also could be just some intraday profit taking only to close on a ramp up in the last 30 minutes.

We'll know soon enough. The rally in prices makes you wonder whether some MLPS might take advantage of the run up to sell equity as some have already done and rather successfully.
A nearly 5 point gain on the mlp index and every single mlp including those below the poverty line (5 dollars or less) are up which is something you don't see too often. Holly Partners is up 1.60 and leads the winner's list. Nustar (NS) Markwest (MWE) EV Partners (EVEP) Global (GLP) and Enbridge are up 1 point or more.

The dow is up 225 and at the highs of the day. Looks like 240 is the next stop on the mlp index.

Overnight Asian and European markets have led the calvary charge and worldwide markets are up sharply and of course US markets are setting up for a sharply higher open. The S&P futures are up 16 points as of this post. Everything is higher including crude up 1.50 and nat gas is up 4 percent and looking to get back over 4 dollars!

I put up the weekly charts this morning just to put it into perspective a bit and we are coming into some important moving average resistence in my view. MLPS have been behaving as if they aren't even there and at least for the weekly charts you could make the case that 270 is doable. Now i think that would be just lovely if we could get back there it does seem an awful lot to ask. Still we are up 10 out of the last 11 weeks in this rally phase. Short term Friday we closed at the November 4th 2008 high of 227.05 and the next target with this tailwind would be the 240 level. If it ain't broke don't fix it so lets just enjoy the ride.

One thing this rally has done is that it has brought yields down and yet they still remain ridiculously high in some instances meaning there is still plenty of headroom in individual issues. But shop carefully if you are adding to new positions. Look for mlps with have grown distributions or have at least held them. I would still avoid the mlps that have sliced or eliminated their payouts.

This is an early post for me. I will update later this morning.