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Wednesday, December 31, 2008

EV Partners had a nice 17000 share insider buy. Inspires some confidence.

Stocks running into the close. Dow up 155. MLP index up nearly 7.
6 point gain and every mlp and gp except for 2 are higher. Energy Transfer Equity (ETE) and Martin Midstream (MMLP) are the laggards although they have held up better than most in this horror of a year.

Lets hope we carry this rally into January; at least for awhile. We are certainly entitled to it. MLPS performance will be tied to the easing of rates in the junk bond arena. Otherwise we're going no where fast.
Energy is moving today as oil is up now nearly 2 dollars. The MLP index is up over 4 points and we continue to see some nice percentage moves in a few issues. Crosstex (XTXI) is up nearly 33% today at 3.50 up 1.01. Also up one or more; Plains All American (PAA) Sunoco Logistics (SXL) Oneok (OKS) Magellan (MMP) Exterran (EXLP) and Nustar (NS).

I am really trying to figure who the safer candidates are for a double in here and of course these things move quickly. Of course the ones you pick are usually the wrong ones but i'm going to take a stab with Hiland (HLND) and maybe one or 2 others if i can sort through the debris. Markwest (MWE) stares at me as a possibility. And i keep thinking if DCP Midstream(DPM) is going to be able to keep its payout...then this stock should be able to get back to 15.

Never easy.

Good bye and good riddance in a year we all would rather forget and a year where MLPS took it on the chin...pretty much with everything else as the world came to an end. Late morning first post here as we watch the market come off some of the year end pressues and the dow is up 90 points right now. The mlp index is up nearly 2 points. I'm noticing some movement in the 10 dollar and under issues today. Not all of them are going up but 17 of the 22 mlps and gps under 10 dollars are up today. Maybe its early January effect.

Copano (CPNO) caught some bids yesterday and continues higher today back over 11. Exterran Partners (EXLP) also has move from 8 to 11 in the last couple of days and leads the winners list today up 90 cents. Alliance (ARLP) Oneok (OKS) and DCP Midstream (DPM) among the fractional winners today. Again not many losers and nothing on the list that stands out. If its year end nonsense that selling should disappear shortly.

I'll check back in later today as we are having some company and a prime rib roast for tonight. Never liked going out on New Years anyway. Prefer to stay at home and prepare a good meal rather than go out and eat a terrible overpriced one.

Tuesday, December 30, 2008

Sorry for the lack of posts today. It seems everyone i know is in the hospital. My neighbor started things off with a perforated appendix which then led to the removal of a cancerous nodule on the liver...thankfully the cancer was completely contained and had not spread. Then my good friend steve gives birth to a kidney stone...male. My dad is in Mississippi and gets taken down by my sister's huge dog. Nothing more than a sprain there. So i've had my hands full today and missed the nice market rally and some mlp moves. I will catch up this evening.

God i wish the holidays would just end already.

The year that is. Just 2 trading days lefft. Stocks have been following a pattern of flat to slightly higher opens followed by selloffs of about 100 points or so and then rallies back in the last hour. MLPS have held up okay through all this as we hover just under 170 on the index. Year end distortions continue and it looks like we have a higher open again this morning so we'll see where that takes us.

Not much happening otherwise today.Linn Energy (LINE) held on to most of its gain yesterday after the Barron's piece. Otherwise most stocks in the group spent the day in relatively tight ranges. No corporate developements this morning and no upgrades or downgrades so far.

I've been trying to come up with a list of mlps that are likely to maintain distributions based on the stock action but i can''t seem to be to confident about it. Sure Kinder Morgan (KMP) Nustar (NS) Oneok (OKS) and a few others are obvious. I'm trying to figure out the ones in the middle where their stock prices are trading somewhere in the teens and there is an element of guessing here. The cut list in my view includes the following.

Atlas Pipeline Partners (APL)
Atlas Pipeline Holdings (AHD)
Breitburn (BBEP)
Constellation Energy Partners (CEP)*
Crosstex LP (XTEX)
Crosstex (XTXI)
Eagle Rock Energy Partners (EROC)
Hiland Partners (HLND)
Hiland Holdings (HPGP)
Markwest (MWE)
Quest Energy Partners (QELP)

*Constellation has already recommended to the board a cut from 56 cents to 13 cents.

Again these are stocks whose price action indicates a cut is imminent. The ones that are tougher to figure out include

Copano (CPNO)
Exterran (EXLP)
Genesis (GEL)
Regency (RGNC)
Penn Virginia (PVR)
Penn Virginia Holdings (PVG)
Targa Resources (NGLS)
Williams (WPZ)

There is potential for a big up move in any and all of these if (and its a big if) a few things happen in January. The first is the easing of credit conditions...and the second it that corporate conditions improve to allow those on the fence to keep distributions intact and that they are safe going foward. Third...a rally in the energy complex would help. And of course the market overall needs to put together a significant rally. Then of course many of these companies could cut and then the stocks could rally anyway if the market has the view that the worst is priced in.

Okay bettors...the casino is open...prepare to place your bets.

Monday, December 29, 2008

Energy stocks leading the way higher at the open but as the overall market has shown signs of weakness, energy, energy stocks and mlps all have pulled back from the morning highs. The mlp index has now turned lower by a few pennies.

Magellan Midstream (MMP) crossing headlines on its Port Arthur project which is being revamped. The Wall Street Journal has a piece this morning about how inspite of demand for pipeline the credit crisis is preventing expansion. No surprise here really that access to money is almost non existent and without it, you can't grow your business. Magellan is up fractionally on its news. Also we are seeing Linn Energy(LINE) with a 2 dollar plus gain off the Barrons piece this weekend. Inergy Holdings (NRGP) is up 50 cents and back over 21 bucks this morning. DCP Midstream (DPM) is now up 35 cents and back to 10.70. Hey at least they are trying.

One of the tricks to making money over the next few weeks is going to be trying to figure out which mlps are going to be able to maintain distributions for 2009. If there is an issue out there which is right now trading like its going out of business, and the company winds up staying in business and keeping the payouts going...then those issues could probably double in a hurry. And many can double and still be a million miles away from anything resembling its 52 week high.

Dow down 81 points right now...MLPS remain flat for the most part.
Linn Energy up 2 in the premarket this morning.

Barrons over the weekend profiled Linn Energy (LINE) with a nice positive spin saying the shares could double. More info from my weekend post along with comments by the gallery. Stock chart shows a trip from 30 to 12 and that's one of the better mlp performers of 2008! How sad is that!

We're coming to the end of this horrific year and the last few days of 2008 will probably see all kinds of distortions for one reason or another. Case in point is the crude market which is up 3 dollars this morning on Middle East geo political concerns. However note that out month crude futures are selling for much higher prices which means that people are essentially paying for storage. When you can sell an out month in the futures at a higher price its bearish for oil so for the time being i would not read much into this 3 dollar bounce.

Not much else happening this morning on the corporate front and nothing on the upgrade downgrade list so far. The mlp index had a decent day Friday with a 3 point rise and very few issues actually went down so we could be seeing the beginnings of a year end/January bounce. Some of these mlps that are priced like call options might double in price fairly quickly if we have a favorable overall market enviornment so some fast money could be made here. Stock futures are a little higher this morning after being lower most of the night.

Saturday, December 27, 2008

The cat got more presents then me!
Linn Energy gets a positive profile in this week's Barrons. You need to be a subscriber in order to read the piece but i'm sure the text of the piece will somehow pop up somewhere in the comments section. Magical how that happens!

Friday, December 26, 2008

Seeing maybe some of the year end selling pressure coming off a few issues today. DCP Midstream (DPM) for example is up 30 cents and has been slowly upticking. A few upticks in some other issues and actually while about 1/2 of the mlps and gps on the list are down, they are down by 17 cents or less. The mlp index itself is up nearly 1 point on this watching paint dry kind of day.

2 losers of note are Oneok (OKS) down 50 cents and Atlas Resources (ATN) down 67 cents. No standout winners..the largest winners are up fractions. I'm hoping that the pressures of year end come off and allow us to have a big bounce in the beginning of January. Certainly many mlp issues are entitled to a big bounce. But i don't think we get that bounce unless we see a rally in corporate bonds (drop in yields) and at least the appearence of an appetite for risk.

Okay it ain't Shakespeare but its early in the morning and i'm still wiped out from yesterday. Overeating makes me poetic. I hope everyone's Christmas was one to remember. This morning we have maybe the seeds of a post Christmas rally. Today is the last day you can sell for 2008 cash settlement so we should see some end of year pressure coming off the market later today. And then we have only 3 days left to trade in this miserable year. No corporate developements and no upgrades or downgrades this morning. I'm not expecting too much to happen today. Crude and nat gas are higher this morning which should give energy stocks some support.

Heading to the gym to work off yesterday's calories. I will check in later. A sign off the times. I workout at Ballys which is in chapter 11. You can't watch tv when you workout anymore because the company didn't pay its satellite bill. Oh well. There is always the ipod.

Thursday, December 25, 2008

I bet he would have rather had a NY Giants sweatshirt!

Tuesday, December 23, 2008



taking a few days off from blog land!!!

Monday, December 22, 2008

BTW we have insider buy filings at Enterprise Products Partners and also at Buckeye Partners (BPL).
Some individual movers today that are standing out. Markwest Energy is down 1.34 to 7 and some change. This with an insider stepping up to the plate. Inergy (NRGY) and Inergy Holdings (NRGP) are up a bit on news that Stagecoach North is up and running. Otherwise its a losing day with the mlp index down over 3 points. The energy complex is down with nat gas nearing 5 dollars and Crude holding just above 40 as we have headed into the new contract.

Hiland Partners (HLND) is down under 4 dollars and its stock price is not much more than its annual distribtuion! Hiland Holdings (HPGP) is at 2 bucks as it moves in tandem. No doubt that a cut is coming here. If not that this stock could triple in a hurry. Place your bets or black! Penn Virginia (PVG) Nustar Holdings (NSH) Holly Partners (HEP) and Energy Transfer (ETP) are all down 1 point or more.

I guess its lots of year end selling going on but as far as falling energy prices...could be a signal that the economy is nothing short of a disaster area.

Just 3 days away and in our house as is probably the case in many homes Christmas is a 2 day affair so everything is upside down around here. Wednesday is nothing but
seafood and singing at 3 masses. Beware of catholic tenors...we're very sensetive! But no matter. My suspicion is that trading for the next 3 days should be relatively uneventful with an upside bias. I would also suspect that there won't be many corporate developements and there are none this morning.So we have 3 charts which are continuing to build short term bases. Interesting that the Dow Jones Oil and Gas index is not going to new lows with crude and nat gas so thats an interesting divergence. Stock futures are a little higher and energy futures are a touch higher as well.

I just want to express thanks to those of you who bought some mystic monk coffee over the last few weeks...and to those of you who threw a few dollars into the tip jar. I really appreciate it very much! One thing i have found is that this Christmas for me anyway has been a much happier less stressful
buildup than the past few years. Its funny that the destruction of wealth has not led to the destruction of everything else! No one is starving for lack of food around here. Everyone is healthy. Its just so much easier this way. Mr Vanderhoff had it right. You can't take it with you. And btw if you haven't seen it , its Frank Capra's lesser known movie from 1938 which won an oscar for best picture and best director. Doesn't get as much play as Its A Wonderful Life but its a great movie for this time of year and also for the kind of year we've had.

Friday, December 19, 2008

Noticing some blowouts going on. Besides Markwest (MWE) which is down over 1 dollar we have Constellation (CEP) down to 2.50 off 30 cents. Hiland Holdings (HPGP) at 2.20 down 40 cents. Atlas Holdings (AHD) at 3.85 down 49 cents. Ugly out there as many mlps essentially become call options.

MLP index and the dow both down 2 as we head into options expiration.
Dealing with a snowstorm today so blogging has been impacted a bit. Dow up then up sharply..then down..nop up again by 60 points. Markwest (MWE) is down 1 with an 8 handle on the downgrade. Hiland Partners (HLND) is down almost 1 to 5 and change on a Wachovia downgrade. Teekay (TGP) is up 60 cents on the earnings boost and Teekay Offshore (TOO) is up 1 on the same news i posted about this morning. The mlp index is down .70 as of this post. Bigger energy stocks are up a touch today after yesterday's sell off.

Sorry for the lightness in the posts today but i have my hands full. I'll try and post in the last hour.

Well somebody was able to go to the well in the debt markets and price an offering as Energy Transfer Partenrs (ETP) priced 10 year senior notes at just under 10% and holders have rights which if exercised will force the company to buy back the notes at par in 2012. Kinder Morgan went to the well the day before. At least paper is beginning to move in here. Also we have Teekay Offshore Partners (TOO) telling us that business conditions are better than forecast and foresee no issues going into 2009. Same also goes for Teekay LNG Partners (TGP). Somebody is doing something right.

And we also have this brilliant downgrade from Morgan Keegan of Markwest (MWE) because they apparently see something in this chart that causes them to downgrade the stock to market perform.

Early post on this options expiration Friday with the dollar rallying this morning after getting ripped apart this week. The energy complex is a little weaker as oil cratered yesterday. Rates at record lows. And S&P cut their ratings on a dozen financials but stock futures remain above fair value so it continues to look like the market wants to rally. MLPS held up better yesterday than energy stocks as a whole so we may follow financials and the rest of the market.

Thursday, December 18, 2008

Constellation Energy Partners (CEP) puts out its 2009 expectations this morning and as expected they are going to cut the distribution to 13 cents from 56 cents. Here is a quote from Scott Brunner.

“Our goal is to sustain our company through the current business cycle and position our operations for success over the long-term. We plan to do that by reducing our total capital expenditures to maintenance levels and taking other measures to enhance liquidity.”

Given the way the world is..being in business at all is a good thing. 13 cents brings the annual yield down now to around 18%. The stock price is down about 9% to 2.85. I would like to think that i doesn't go lower than this as long as business conditions don't get any worse.

The mlp index at lunch time is down a little less than 1 point as crude drops to a 4 year low. Energy stocks as a whole are weaker. Nustar(NS) is down 1 as the biggest loser today.Markwest (MWE) is down 58 cents and now sits just above 9. Otherwise most mlps up or down are trading in relatively tight ranges.

We have just 9 trading days left in 2008. Good riddance frankly so everything is starting to wind down. We have options and futures expiration tomorrow which means a little more game playing. Otherwise we seem to be just moving along in a sideways pattern lately overall.

The bears however have just ripped apart the energy complex. As hideous as the stock market and MLP drop has been, the charts here for crude and nat gas have really been something to behold. Think back to July when oil was marching toward 150. Did you ever imagine an unrelenting decline that has taken us down to 40 dollars which btw is the lowest price for oil since 2004. And nat gas has been no bargain either as it has been also cut in half and thensome. That plus the equity market demise and you have the MLP mess that we are in. And as one of our regular posters Bruce has pointed out..that nat gas price decline, if it sticks around for awhile does not bode well for distributions come next year and the cutting knife may be out for many mlps. We can only hope that unit prices have already discounted all this.

Clues about this could be coming this morning with a conferecnce call for Constellation Energy Partners (CEP) at 9am to talk about 2009. Those of you interested in listening is the info.

U.S.: (888) 322-9245
International: (773) 756-0253
Password: PARTNERS

This morning we have crude trying to hold 40 dollars. Stock futures a little higher. The dollar getting ripped apart against the Euro. Gold is running to 875 this morning. This is what happens when the fed floods the market with money.

For those of you looking toward some year end action there are 20 mlps and gps that are selling right now for less than 10 dollars. 9 of those sell for under 5 dollars. And many of these sold for 20, 30 and even 40 dollars or more. It could be that many of these might be entitled to a year end/ early 2009 bounce. Its been my view that if credit conditions in junk yield corporates starts to noticeably improve, and if these companies make any indication that their distributions are intact..then those issues could double in a hurry as we just saw happen in DCP Midstream (DPM). Not for the faint of heart but there will be a window of opportunity over the next few trading days to place some bets. I'm not sure which ones i would pick out of this mess quite frankly. Crosstex (XTEX,XTXI) has already cut once and the price tells me they are cutting again. XTXI has a 2 handle. Hiland Holdings (HPGP) has priced in a cut and a sizeable one in my view. Regency (RGNC) and Genesis (GEL) are 2 i find a little interesting especially RGNC as GE holds a stake in that one. Its almost like buying a call option. Again these are plays in the context of an early 2009 bounce after tax loss selling gets done.

Wednesday, December 17, 2008

The Kinder Morgan news story from marketwatch has a mistake. Its 3.9 million shares not 2.9 million.

MLPS higher on the index as crude collapses to 40 dollars..down over 3 bucks and the dollar is selling off hard as well for the second day in a row. Energy stocks mixed to higher as of this post.
Markets overall have just turned higher after being down all morning. Dow is up 10. MLPS are unchanged as a whole.

Targa Natural Resources (NGLS) is buying notes in the open market and since they are trading at a huge discount...will continue to buy back notes. Makes sense to me. The stock is up 70 cents. Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) is up 1 and some change and leads the winners list. Nustar (NS) continues to claw higher as it nears 44 and its up 75 cents.

Dragging the mlp index and today's biggest loser is Kinder Morgan (KMP) which is down 1.46. It just priced an offering of shares today.

Crude down just under 2 dollars on the OPEC cut which was priced in but energy stocks are firming up in here as they diverge from crude. Nat gas is down 15 cents.

We've gotten everything out of the way now that the fed is done..Goldman is done. All that's left is for OPEC to announce its production cut that the energy markets will probably not believe anyway since these guys talk a tough game and then cheat anyway. Crude was higher this morning earlier but is now down again about 20 cents with a 43 handle. Looks like we could test the 40 dollar level in there. Energy equities however more than likely will attach themselves to whatever the overall market does. This morning we see weakness there in futures after yesterday's big gains. But that could be just the opening ticks as the market appears to be in rally mode as a whole. Volatility continues to slowly come in with the VIX down to 52. MLPS are continuing to operate in an enviornment where there is little developing on the corporate side. No upgrades or downgrades this morning either. Year end pressures will continue in individual mlps that have spirialed into the abyss and unit holders sell for a tax loss. Of course its hard to imagine who has long term gains out there to offset the losses with...but one never knows. There could be somebody out there.

Finally this morning, here in the Peoples Republic of the State of NY our governor has proposed a budget which is loaded with new taxes and tax increases like you wouldn't believe including an obesity tax on non diet soda of 18%. Lovely place to live here in this shithole of a one party state where no problem can't be solved. Just increase taxes. My property taxes went up 8% for next year and has put me at over 10k. I pay the highest energy rates in the country. I pay the highest gasoline prices in the country with the exception of California. I think its time to move!

Tuesday, December 16, 2008

The fed effectively cut rates to zero. And they will be doing all kinds of things to keep us out of the abyss as they put forth a biblical statement. The market liked it and the dow closed up nearly 360. MLPS closed higher by 2 points and over 180. As usual in these situations we should see us play catch up tomorrow.

No news so far after hours.
Hiland Holdings (HPGP) Horrors as it sinks under 2.40 on no news. Markwest (MWE) under 10 dollars now and down 1. Could be year end dumping from individual accounts. Or is it the distribution cuts that seem almost certain to come next month? MLP index now unchanged on the day. Fed decision imminent.
Since my last post Atlas Pipeline has broken below 6 dollars and Markwest has broken under 10 dollars. But the MLP index is back up over 1 point.

What will the fed do? Lets see if Mr LaFong knows. Do you know Mr LaFong?

Contellation Energy Partners (CEP) is having a conference call on Thursday about 2009 business plans. Maybe they will mention the distribution which is bound to be cut.

MLPS in a holding pattern this morning up a little under 1 point on the index and well off the highs of the day. Energy stocks as a whole are higher but off their highs as well. Crude oil was higher this morning and then turned lower again.

Atlas Pipeline Partners (APL) not reacting much to the credit watch news from S&P. Its down 29 cents this morning. Atlas Holdings (AHD) is down about the same. Markwest is down 55 cents and sits right at 10 dollars this morning. No news there. Most other losing issues today are shedding fractions.

Winners include Nustar (NS) up 1.63 and is today's biggest winner so far. Fractional gains in Martin Midstream (MMLP) Holly Partners (HEP) Sunoco Logistics (SXL) Energy Transfer (ETP) TC Pipelines LP (TCLP) Magellan (MMP) and Semagroup LP (SFLP) which is a big percentage winner as a mlp with a 3 handle.

The fed decision is due at 2:15pm. Once we get through that it looks like we have some headroom to take prices higher over the next few weeks...imho of course.

S&P who was right there on top of things when Bear Stearns, Lehman, and all the rest got into
trouble. Well those boys are right there again as they put Atlas Pipeline Partners (APL) on creditwatch with negative implications. They sight falling crude prices might pressure cash flow and that they are already in a tight situation with regards to its leverage ratio and its bank covenants. The charts of Atlas tell us that the market has figured this out a long time ago. Certainly the Citigroup downgrade a number of points ago gave people an opportunity to sell at least 10 points higher on APL and 5 or more on Atlas Pipeline Holdings (AHD). Another example of an mlp laying in the wasteland.

Also this morning we have a story about a possible reorganization attempt at Semagroup LP (SGLP). The chariman of Red Apple Group, John Catsimatidis is known up here in NY as he runs Red Apple and Gristede's supermarkets. He is also been rumoured to want to run for mayor of NYC. The man is worth over 2 billion dollars so he is no small potatoes.

Not much else happening this morning but markets are firm ahead of Goldman earnings. Energy prices are higher after yesterday's strange day where crude was up over 3 dollars in the morning and then collapsed to an almost 2 dollar loss by days end. The Fed will also be a player as they make a rate decision this afternoon. I think once all this stuff is out of the way the markets could mount a solid rally. Unless of course we get a surprise.

Monday, December 15, 2008

With respect to the Madoff case the SEC is acting like Mr Muckle!

The mlp index went up about 3 points this morning near its days high and is now down 1 as the overall market has turned softer but nothing tragic. Oneok (OKS) and Nustar (NS) are the biggest losers today; both down about 1 point or so. And we have the usual suspects of fractional losers on the board. On the winning side Holly Partners (HEP) Hiland Partners (HLND) and Semagroup LP (SGLP) are up major fractions. Sema is a big percentage winner up 60 cents with a 2 handle.

Nice to see nat gas up today but off its highs. Crude was up over 3 dollars this morning but has pulled back to a fractional gain right now. Whoops...crude now down 63 cents as i type. Just noticed mlps at the lows of the day on the index and big energy stocks have started selling off a bit. No news breaking that i've seen. I can't see what the drivers are in crude longer term as long as the economy is a basket case and equities go nowhere.

The Madoff scandle continues to deepen as we find out more and more about this horror show. Here is the you tube video in its totality. And btw something that would make the Sopranos's proud but number 2 there at Madoff's firm was Frank DiPasquale of "New Jersey" who was originally in the "sprinkler" business! You just can't make this stuff up.


Friday's action on many charts produced Doji hammer formations for you candlestick lovers which is a bullish developement and I continue to hold the view that we can rally here for awhile. We're certainly entitled a contra-trend rally that could last at least into January.

The first lines of resistence lie just overhead but i'm expecting us to slowly crawl and chew through moving averages. Oddly its MLPs that seem to have the widest base on the charts and that is reflecting the continued pressure being applied by credit markets. Junk yields have not rallied yet and i think we are going to have a rally in conjunction with a rally in high yield corporates. Now if the day comes where these things rally big...look for mlps to rally big as well. 20 percent or greater yields remain common place in here. Even some of the safest mlps are yielding 10% or more. So watch those corporate yields carefully because that will be a tip off for us. I would suggest that year end pressures will continue to push treasuries to ridiculous yields but once those pressues disappear; could we be setting up for the next bubble to burst? If so then TBT which is the double short 20 year treasuries will be a good place to be. They will go up in value if yields go up at a 2 times leverage.

On the news front this morning there are no individual corporate headlines. No upgrades or downgrades on the list either. Crude is rallying up over 2 dollars and natural gas is moving higher buy 15 cents. S&P futures are above fair value and energy stocks are up in the premarket. So with energy up look for MLPS to move up this morning with energy stocks as a whole. We continue to see mlps with possible distribution issues continue to languish. Many of those in the land of single digits. As noted last week with DCP Midstream...if you can show that your distirbution is safe going into next year, your stock price can double very fast. So the game in the next few weeks is figuring out which mlps have safe distirbutions. If you can find one you could get a great return in a very short amount of time. But remember there is risk in here!

Finally this morning...we are getting very close to Christmas and Hanukkah and if you are struggling for coming up with last minute ideas...we recommend Mystic Monk Coffee...or maybe your favorite wine which you can order from the Cellars Wine Club...and then sunggle into a Nuddle blanket...or maybe for your honey to snuggle in the blanket while you drink the wine! Or any other combination you can come up with! All those links are right there on the side bar for your shopping convienence. Or books and things at Amazon! Those links lie above this post...also at your shopping convienence. So you can read about your dwindling investments and shop with what little money you have left...all at the same time. Glory!

Sunday, December 14, 2008


Friday, December 12, 2008

Getting whipped around today as the market see saws...well off the lows down @ 8350 and way off the overnight dow futures which were down over 300. Meanwhile MLPS were down to 174ish and that rallied back over 180. Now at 178 as of this post and will continue to move with the dow. Last hour ought be interesting as usually but if we can manage to close with nothing worse than a small loss it might be that a good tradeable bottom has formed.

Hiland Holdings (HPGP) and Hiland Partners (HLND) both continue to disintigrate as it is become increasingly clear that there are distribution troubles here based on the stock action. Both stocks showing fractional losses and sinking further in single digit land. Losers are shedding mostly 1 point or less but some stocks showing bigger percentage losses than others. Winners also contained at this point.

News driver of the moment is the Senate defeat of the auto company rescue package and markets are plunging this morning. Stock futures are down 300 dow points as of this posting so we are getting a test of this rally phase rather quickly in here. I like sharply down opens as they can be catharic and if there is enough volume...a climax can be achieved. Energy markets are sharply lower this morning to start. Its a test there too as crude probes around this bottoming area.

By the way getting less play but huge is the Bernie Madoff ponzi scheme story which could be another massive deleveraging mess. Watch this one carefully.

News headlines today could swing markets in either direction so keep dramamine handy. And MLPS which have no news drivers today on the corporate side will be be moving with everything else. Here we should watch for relative outperformance.

So here comes another day of hand holding.

Thursday, December 11, 2008

Its time for me to head for Bagel Street. Any of you out there know where Bagel Street is? I have to take some hats to the Susquehanna Hat company.

Jamie Dimon made some negative comments on CNBC and that set the selling off. Dow down 200. MLPS down now over 5 points. Energy stocks now selling off as well. Crude remains up 4 dollars and is not selling off with equities. Interesting change of behavior.

No headlines on any MLPS to speak of this afternoon.
Dow down 100 points with the mlp index down now nearly 3. Kinder Morgan (KMP) is down over 2 points and Buckeye (BPL) down 2 providing the drag on the index. The bulk of mlps have turned lower with the sell off.
MLPS are higher but off the highs with the index up fractionally. Kinder Morgan (KMP) is the drag down 1 and change as they are going to an offering. Since their stock price is in the high 40s...if they can pull it off...why not! Otherwise most mlps are higher with Holly Partners (HEP) is up 2. Martin Midstream(MMLP) Sunoco Logistics (SXL) Plains All American (PAA) and Linn Energy (LINE) are up around 1 point each.

Crude oil is up 5 dollars on the lower dollar. Thats given another boost to energy and material stocks today. The action continues to be encouraging. We need to see the buying spread into some of the more distressed MLPS that continue to languish with single digit handles.

We seem to be taking a turn for the better lately. MLPS seem to be separating between those whose distributions will remain in tact and those whose distributions are in jeopardy. The Dow Jones Oil and Gas Index looks like its developing a nice base and commodities seem to be waking up a bit. Gold is back over 800 this morning. The oil and gas index needs to get above 450 on the close and we could have some sort of breakout.

The mlp index is been building a much less orthodox base with wider swings between 150 and 200 and we are pretty much now in the middle of that range. The percentage move yesterday was greater than other indexes so we are continuing to see relative outperformance. This is all fine and dandy for the short term. Longer term we may still have issues. But at least for now things are getting better. Players should let stocks come to them rather than chase. The biggest winners potentially lie in those mlps that may cut the distribution based on today's prices but turn out not to. Its a risky play. Right now the bigger mlps whose distributions are solid seem to be getting the bang for the buck.

This morning we have no corporate developements and no upgrades or downgrades. Crude is higher by over 2 dollars and again its nice to see them move independently from the overall stock market. It could be that some confidence in tangible assets is creeping back. Hey at least its better than unrelenting declines.

Wednesday, December 10, 2008

Closed with a solid 8 point gain on the MLP index. Atlas Holdings (AHD) is up 2.67 today which was a 65% gain. It was priced like a call option. No news that i can see.
Moving back to an 8 point gain with Nustar (NS) up over 3 points and Magellan (MMP) up over 2 points. MLP's relative performance continues to improve.
DCP Midstream Partners conference call replay can be found here. Company gives an overall positive view of next year and the distribution. Stock has moved back over 10 dollars and hit 12 this morning. Seems to me that with a 20% if markets ever get back to something resembling a normal could do well here. Investor relations returned my call and that is certainly a good thing!

Last hour nonsense about the begin.
Up over 8 points on the mlp index at the high of the day; we're up just under 7 right now as the overall market is lower as of this post but getting whipped around. Relative outperformance continues which is a very encouraging sign. Energy stocks also higher but off their highs as well.

Some large percentage moves as Atlas Holdings (AHD) is up 1.76 to just under 6 bucks. Thats a 43% move. DCP Midstream (DPM) was up nearly 2 points at high of the day but has since pulled back; still up another 60 cents to 10.63. 1 point winners include Holly Partners (HEP)Magellan (MMP) Nustar (NS)Natural Resource (NRP) Kinder Morgan (KMP)Enterprise (EPD) Oneok (OKS) Boardwalk (BWP) and Buckeye Partners (BPL).

Only a handful of losers and they are only down small fractions.

Not sure if we are borrowing from the January effect in here but an up day is an up day.

A 24%+ yield and an indication of the distribution being safe and you actually can have an mlp go up.

DCP Midstream has rallied from 6 to 10 in a hurry and the stock is bidding 10.40 this morning pre open so there is more upside in here. And MLPS can probably rally nicely in here as long as the overall bear market rally we are having remains intact.The base is continiung to be extended in here and 9500 looks like the top of the range. A break above that would be signifcant but thats 700+ points from here. Lets get there first.

What has been encouraging late have been the down days are not getting followthrough and this morning we see stronger futures ahead of the open. Meridith Whitney, bank watcher extrodinaire, has been spot on with her calls on the financials was on CNBC earlier and remains bearish on banks so the futures have pulled back.

No corporate developements and no upgrades or downgrades so far. Crude is up 2 dollars this morning as oil holds that 40 dollar level. MLPS did well yesterday holding up in the selloff and outperforming the overall market. Hopefully that is a sign.

Tuesday, December 09, 2008

Down 240 0n the down and down a fraction on the mlp index at the close. Relative outperformance but well off the days highs which is a bit disappointing.

DCP Midstream closed above 10 dollars for the first time in quite awhile. Glory!
Off the highs as the dow sells off 200 points but mlps continue relative outperformance in here which is something we did not see during the prior sell offs so we will take that as a positive.

DCP Midstream (DPM) hit 10 dollars and is up 1 and small change as the prospects for a distribution going foward look good according to the company. Thanks to Hyman for posting the link in the comments from last night. Check page 14.
MLPS are just moving right along here up nearly 7 points on the mlp index. We have a growing list of 1 point plus gainers including the Nustars (NS,NSH) the Magellans (MMP,MGG) Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) Holly Partners (HEP) Teppco (TPP) Sunoco Logistics (SXL), Plains All American (PAA) Natural Resource (NRP) EV Partners (EVEP) Alliance Resource (ARLP) Teppco (TPP) and DCP Midstream (DPM).

Breitburn (BBEP) Inergy Holdings (NRGP) and Martin Midstream (MMLP) among the few losers today. No news drivers in here.

Breaking news on the idea that there is corruption in Chicago politics. Really? I didn't know. I lived in New Orleans and i always thought Louisiana politics was fascinating but this guy really is in a class all his own!
MLPS have taken the bit and they are running with nearly a 5 point gain on the index in the early going. Tape overall has a very good feel to it. Magellan (MMP) Natural Resource (NRP) and Energy Transfer (ETP) are 1 point plus winners this morning. Not too many losers on the list and the few that are down are only down small fractions.

Ferrellgas has done everything a company needs to do these days to get their stock price to at least not fall as much as everthing else in the mlp group. Record earnings, raises outlook! All good stuff and likely to be ignored. That is unless sentiment is improving enough to attract a few upticks. We will watch carefully.

The mlp index is still enjoying a headroom rally as we still have some room until the moving averages are reached. The dow industrials are in rally mode and if you believe the trading range that has developed, 9500 would be the top and 7500 is the bottom. Looks like the market wants to head toward the top of that range.

This morning we see a bit of a pull back from the 2 day, 4% per day rally in the dow stocks. No surprise here. No upgrades or downgrades but Freidman Billings is dropping coverage on Atlas Pipeline (APL) and Atlas Holdings (AHD). Both stocks were at outperform and they have....on the downside!

Watch for some individual moves in MLPS as we have the Wachovia Investment Conference this week and lots of mlps will be speaking. Here is the schedule of events. I think the most important thing any MLP can say right now is that the distribution is safe. MLP prices for the most part have priced in no distribution increases or cuts.

Okay i figured what the hell...go to the new format. I still need to make a few tweaks here and there but i think the new look is easier to read and gives me more room to do the stuff i do.

Monday, December 08, 2008

News after the close from Enterprise Products Partners & Duncan Partners (EPD,DEP). Never under estimate Dan Duncan.

So far the reviews on the new web site look are positive. If i get everything done soon i may make the switch in the next few days.
I am continuing to play around with the new blog site format. Its a work in progress but i want to get it ready to launch it probably on January 1st. That will give me time to fix any problems rather than do it on a trading day. If you haven't seen it...please take a look at it here...and please scroll down and vote on whether you like it or not. Also i apprecialte any suggestions, ideas, etc etc. and you can leave your thoughts in the comments or in the comments on the poll.
Rally seems to be holding near or just off the highs. MLPS off their highs but still up over 5 points on the index.

Quicksilver Gas (KGS) is a noteable loser as it is down 1.61. The company is aquiring Lake Arlington Dry Systems for 42 million drawing on an existing credit facility. There was a time when this would have driven the stock price up by the amount its down. But i guess the market view is..."you are drawing on a credit facility in a time where credit is nearly unavailable?"

DCP Midstream is up 1.67 to 9 or a 22% gain as apparently on the conference call the company may have said the distribution is least for the time being. Posts on the yahoo message board indicate this but i have still recieved no confirmation. I have a call into IR and Media relations to get some info. I will post if i hear something.

Nustar (NS) is up 3. Natural Resource Partners (NRP) is up 2. And we have a fair number of 1 point plus winners.

Since i've been typing more buyers have arrived in mlp land as we head toward the highs of the day. Dow approaching 9k.
Dow up 300 points and at the high of the day and approaching 9000. MLP index up 7 and off the days highs. Oil up 3.50. So everything is moving in the right direction.

Buckeye (BPL,BGH) and Sunoco Logistics (SXL) are all down fractions right now but no news items driving them. Constellation Partners (CEP) and Eagle Rock (EROC) are the other 2 losers today.

DCP Midstream is having a conference call this morning. Poster on the yahoo board indicates that the company may have said something positive about the sustainablilty of the distribution. Maybe the reason why the stock is up nearly 1 this morning. Can't confirm this but will dig around.
I have adjusted colors and sizes on the test site...check it again. And please...all comments and suggestions welcomed and appreciated.
In the early going the MLP index is up over 7 points and every mlp and gp is up this morning except for Buckeye Holdings (BGH) which is down 52 cents. That 17.50 offer sounds a whole lot better now doesn't it, and Inergy Holdings (NRGP) which is unchanged but its bid over a dollar higher. Dow up 265 and the buying looks pretty solid this morning.

Nustar (NS) Oneok (OKS) Martin Midstream (MMLP) and Kinder Morgan (KMP) are up 2 points or more and are the leaders so far this morning.
I'm toying with a new look. But i want to make sure everyone is okay with it. Take a look. Its a work in progess. And please answer the poll so i know what you are thinking.


Larry W wants to enlarge the chart without losing the blog on his browser. Right mouse click on the chart and select open in new window or open in new tab.

Futures have been strengthening all night and markets seem to be lining up to rally from here and certainly we have headroom. For MLPS we need to line up the markets and some support from the energy side of the equation. The Dow Jones Oil and Gas index lines up pretty well with the dow chart and both have put in a base in here.

Of course the MLP chart doesn't the relative smoothness of the other 2 charts but we will continue to move along with everything else. One encouraging sign might be the action in financials which seem to have shown a little leadership in the last several days. Certainly they led the way higher Friday and this is somehting we should watch.

Going foward in the longer term Joe Battapaglia was on CNBC this morning and said you will want to own companies who have enough cash to carry them through for the next 3 years and do not have to roll over debt or access new debt. Not exactly the kind of enviornment MLPS can do well in!

This morning we have no news on the corporate side and no upgrades or downgrades so far. As we mentioned earlier stock futures are strong this morning. Dow futures up 200 points. Crude is up while nat gas is down this morning. Some key levels to look for. MLP index can rally at least to 190 before hitting some resistence. 220 is important. On the dow chart we need to get above
8772 which we will do at the open this morning. Ultimately 9500 is the top of the base which is the first bounce high back in October. That will be formidable but that is also many points from here. Market repair is essential for mlps to gain any type of traction. Big money might be made if you can figure out which of the beaten down mlps will be able to survive all this. And will those with now single digit handles be cutting distributions or has all that been priced in?

Sunday, December 07, 2008

Well if futures are any indication we could have a nice start to the day Monday as S&P futures are roaring ahead by 13 points and building on gains while dow futures are up over 100 points. Maybe Friday's action is a tip off that stocks are pretty much sold out in the short term and have room to rally here.

Crude is up 1.50 right now and that has lots of headroom after dropping 100 dollars in 4 months.

Friday, December 05, 2008

Nice rally underway with the dow up 150 and off its high. MLPS coming off the lows with the index still down 2 points. Energy as a whole continues to lag. Financials emerging as a leadership group in here. Could be a good intermediate term sign for the overall market if that continues.
Leaving no stone unturned!

Even the death mlp has been cut in half

Down 7 points and holding on the mlp index with the down down 160. Frankly i thought the market would have been far worse than this but lets see what the afternoon brings.
MLPS are down with everything else. The index is off 7 points. Hiland Partners (HLND) Hiland Holdings (HPGP) and Alliance Resource (ARLP). Otherwise we have the obligatory list of 1 to 2 point losers.

One thing i've been noticing in this selloff is that the financials seem to be going down less than everything else. Could we be seeing the beginnings of a sea change? Even so the process will be slow.

I don't know about you but if you asked me back in July that in 4 months oil would drop 100 dollars a barrel, nat gas would be under 6, and gasoline nationwide would be straddling 1.50 a gallon i would not have taken that trade. Drops in price yes but not to the magnitude we've seen. And as i have explained to many people that at this point the drop continuing is not a good thing. It is telling us the economy is circling the drain.

Of course there are those who point to "they" which is that group out there that controls everything. "They" drove it up...and now "They" drove it down! I often wonder when people espose "they"; what they are doing is implicating themselves. If they knew...and you know that they knew...then you knew! And if you knew and didn't go are a fool. Tough to follow isn't it! But then again you knew that. Or are you they?

Okay enough of this...its all about the employment numbers and they look to be bad. But yesterday's late selloff probably discounts bad to even very bad numbers. No corporate news in MLP land and no upgrades or downgrades. Energy is higher this morning as the complex shows a dead cat bounce. Bond yields continue to hover near record lows. All part of the new normal!

Thursday, December 04, 2008

There has been a noticiable drop in traffic lately to this blog. Maybe its the post Thanksgiving blues. Or maybe its that sentiment is so bad right now that my readers have thrown in the towel. Maybe that means we are on the verge of a substantial rally that could hold for awhile. One can only hope.

It appears to me that the market sold off in the last hour to minus 320 as people just sold to get ahead of an awful unemployment report in the morning. So unless the number is an absolute disaster we should be able to rally. Futures are up right now. No after hour corporate developements.
Opened lower rallied higher and now lower by 90 on the dow and 4 on the mlp index. Energy stocks as a group are enjoying a lovely crucifixion today as oil breaks below 45 and gasoline futures are at 99 cents down 5 cents. Gulf Oil ceo predicting 1 dollar gas at the pumps early next year. Why not!

Most mlp's are lower being led down by Energy Transfer (ETP) Magellan (MMP) Plains All American (PAA) Nustar (NS) Boardwalk (BWP) and Buckeye (BPL) all down 1 point or more. Big energy down nearly 5% on some indexes.

Wish the auto stuff on CNBC would just end. All that wind in one room!

The patient is breathing to some degree but headwinds continue. Energy continues to fall with crude down to 45 dollars and some change this morning. We will soon have to entertain the question of which mlps are going to have issues regarding the February distribtuion payouts and how safe they are. There are 2 ways to look at this. Cuts are priced deep those cuts are may not be. Also i'm sure distribution cuts are priced into some issues who will not have to cut next quarter. In those instances the unit prices could offer opportunity.

Through all of this the bottoming process continues and we have just come off 2 up days from Monday's big down day. And we are looking at another down start this morning after ECB and BOE rate cuts of 75 and 100 basis points respectively. Dupont, Merck and AT&T among others coming out about how bad things are. Jobless claims are horrible. And so forth and so on. The market the last 2 days has been acting like we may be at the point of having priced all this stuff into the equation.

Back to MLP corporate developments and nothing on the upgrade downgrade list. Its more of the same tail wagging the dog in here. So bring on the open and another daily adventure.

Wednesday, December 03, 2008

Market turning higher again. Bad news now is getting discounted.
Dow down 100 points as of 1"50 pm. News item that the Port Authority went to market to sell some short term paper and got no bids. Not sure if thats the reason for the sell off. MLPS selling off with the index down 2.50 and under 170.

It could also be selling ahead of the beige book which comes out at 2pm. In which case unless its really bad the market could rally once the book comes out.
After a visit under 170 we've turned higher and the rest of the market is also higher after this mornings selloff which took us down 170 ish. The tape feel has been getting a little stronger especially in the face of Monday's sell off and all the bad news since. I'm getting the feel that much of what is going on may be finally priced in for the short term and that we are in a rally phase that could last awhile. Thats not to say we won't see big sell offs but watch the VIX index and volitlity keeps slowly coming in although it remains elevated. So sell offs could begin to get less fierce. Its bottoming and its process albeit an extremely frustrating and aggravating one.

MLPS are showing a mixed nature. Sunoco Logistics (SXL) Ferrellgas (FGP and Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) showing 1 point plus gains. Nustar (NS) Buckeye (BPL) Magellan (MMP) Oneok (OKS) among the fractional winners.

Losers include Atlas Energy Resource (ATN) Penn Virginia Holdings (PVG) Kinder Morgan (KMP) Hiland (HLND) Spectra (SEP) and Boardwalk(BWP) all showing fractional declines and in a few cases some large percentage losses.

Down open this morning after all the data noise is now out of the way so its another one of those high volitility moves we've all gotten used to. MLPS did nothing yesterday and will follow suit here. Not much happening corporate wise this morning and no upgrades or downgrades. Energy is flat this morning with oil straddling 47 dollars. Heating oil is at 1.57 right now. Amazing really.

We're going to have to chew through the month of December and that means tax loss selling. There might be a "few" people doing that this year. Scroll down to my post from last night about encouraging signs. I'm hoping we'll get selling out of the way this morning and some sort of rally attempt later this morning.

Tuesday, December 02, 2008


Just want to point out that while crude oil has gone to new lows as measured by the USO, the XOI OIL INDEX has not only stopped going down but it looks like it might be emerging out of a base in here. Are the big oil stocks telling us that a bottom in Crude oil is near?
Okay so we didn't get 1/2 of yesterday's loss but we got back 40% of it. And the dow chart in the short term has been moving sideways instead of relentlessly down. Of course mlps finished basically flat today.

Insider buy at Crosstex LP (XTEX). 15000 shares at 5.76.
Dow went negative around 2:30 briefly and now back up 170. MLP index now unchanged. Goldman Sachs seems to be dictating the tape.

As i type dow back up 200
Rally fading away since 2pm with the dow up just 30 points and the mlp index is now down 1.40 and sitting just above 170. Not encouraging and we could see another last hour implosion here if it continues. Dow now about to go negative as i post. Maybe i should stop typing.
Well i have to say that its encouraging that the market is moving higher today after yesterday. The day isn't over yet but we are at the highs of the day up 230 on the dow. The mlp index however is up less than a point which is discouraging but if gains continue to build we should catch up some this afternoon.

Magellan Midstream (MMP) and Magellan Holdings (MGG) are doing some governance changing , issuing rights etc...just in case some one comes along and buys 15% or more of the shares. I guess they think the low price might become attractive to someone. Both stocks are down fractionally today.

Most MLPS showing fractional gains.Tortoise Energy Infrastructure (TYG) and Kayne Anderson (KYN) are up 1 and change. Sunoco Logisitics is up 1.25. Markwest Energy (MWE) also up 1.

Martin Midstream Partners (MMLP) down 1 and some change stands as the biggest loser.

9 TO 11% declines or more in the market is something we haven't seen in a couple of weeks so its nice to see us back to gut wrenching declines. MLPS took an expected amount of gas yesterday as the Thanskgiving rally gets partially undone. Dead cats bouncing this morning from stocks to energy. Yields on bonds apparently are all going to zero with the two year at 0.83% and the ten year at an astounding 2.75%. So perhaps the ultimate bubble is there for the pricking in the form of Treasuries.

No corporate developements this morning and so far as of this post no upgrades or downgrades. One thing to point out for natural gas. The weather pattern over the next several weeks looks very cold across much of the country. Now it won't be cold every waking minute of that stretch but cold enough that it should eventually bring in short term support for heating oil and nat gas. Whether that takes the headlines for traders above the economy remains to be seen but it might be something to trade on.

Being that mlps are floating around in the land of hopelessness i'm heading for the gym. Hopefully we can hold 8100 and take back 1/2 of yesterday's losses by days end. But i'm afraid that's asking too much.

Monday, December 01, 2008

From 7400 to 8700 to 8300...all in six trading days. But then again this is the new normal!

Last hour with Paulson pontificating...sound and fury signifying nothing! Dow down 450...MLPS down nearly 9. Glory!
Dow 8 points on the mlp index as the dow runs its losses to minus 450 or 5%. Figures after 5 up days we would see a large giveback today. Big energy is losing bigtime today with indexes down 8% or more so that is adding an additional drag.

Quicksilver Gas (KGS) and Ferrellgas (FGP) are the only 2 winners today and we're talking small fractions. Otherwise we're seeing 1 to 2 point losses among the usual mlp suspects. Coal mlps are getting hit hard today as Alliance Resource (ARLP) is down over 2 points and Natural Resource Partners (NRP) down nearly 2 points. 20 mlps in total are down between 1 and 2 points. Atlas Pipeline Holdings (AHD) is down 1.05 and is a big percentage loser today.

I think at some point this afternoon they will try to rally 'em off the lows.
Inergy LP (NRGY) puts up quarterly and annual earnings numbers. The company outlook is good pointing to no commodity exposure and that 2009fiscal year is off to a good start. Stock price has been hit like others but remains above the land of single digits.

I certainly hope everyone's Thansksgiving was a good one. To be honest my mother in law seasoned her turkey with so much garlic that i've been firing bullets since Thursday! I can't handle food the way one handles it when you are younger. Certainly a little indigestion is in order this morning in the markets as we come off 5 up days in a row on the dow industrials and a pretty good week in MLP land.

MLPs on Friday actually saw some welcomed action in a few of the most(but not all) beaten down issues. Some large percentage moves occured in Atlas Pipeline Holdings (AHD) Crosstex Energy LP (XTEX) and a couple of others. Some laggards out there as well but i would suspect that rotation from day to day will continue as long as we are in some sort of short term uptrend however suspect that uptrend may be.

Crude down 2 dollars this morning. I saw a 1 handle on gasoline here in the peoples republic of the state of NY! Stock futures are down over 20 points on the S&P. No upgrades or downgrades so far and no headlines on the corporate side as of this post. The morning however is young.

Friday, November 28, 2008


Sorry about the late first post but its been busy in some respects and slow in others. Not much market action to speak of. Energy stocks lower with energy. MLP flat to a little lower but nothing tragic.

Going to take the day off and digest and leach out all the garlic i ate yesterday. Also getting comfortable with my new laptop. I went with an HP because i needed to many add ons to the mac for my work stuff. So i am going to get a mac desktop for the family computer instead. Its funny how your arms and hands get used to a keyboard and now the new keyboard is a little different. But i'm going to work that through. Watching in case any headlines break. Otherwise enjoy the rest of the holiday weekend.

Wednesday, November 26, 2008


Okay its not as bad as in this Chaplin scene but we do have so much to be grateful for!
All the best to you and your families!

Could be! Dangerous road to travel on these days calling bottoms but the first one that caught my eye is the Dow Jones Oil and Gas Index which i think is the best looking of all the charts i'm posting this morning. Now it doesn't mean today you run out and buy but at least the big energy stocks have stopped going down and did not undercut their lows last week with the rest of the market. So keep an eye on this for relative outperformance. If energy is the leader it would increase the arguement that we're in a bear market rally and not some new bull move. It would be unusual for the prior leadership to retain its leadership status in a new bull market. Besides we're not even sure we've actually hit "the" bottom. It certainly feels like "a" bottom.

Dow charts also look like they are building tradeable bottoms in here for a nice bear market rally that could last awhile. Again this is in the context of a tradeable bottom. Of course I saved the MLP index for last since those charts still look pretty pathetic

The best thing one could say here is on the daily chart the mommentum into last week's new low was not as strong as the prior move to 150. We're still working on the weekly chart above which needs more time to give us a clue. But that rounding top on the daily at 220 is formidable so needless to say we have a lot of work to do as we wallow in the depths of bear market despair.

If you think we're at a tradeable bottom and you want to play energy there is a new triple leveraged energy ETN whose symbol is ERX. At least if we're going to get a tradeable move its best to have some leverage. Ladder in carefully for the best results in dollar or more increments. These things can move in both directions.
Day before Thanksgiving with lots of market data coming out this morning. Stock futures are 15 points lower on the S&P after our first 3 day rally since August. My guess is that we'll see some early movement and then everyone will start to go home. No individual corporate developments this morning. Everyone is still in business last i looked. Energy higher after being down hard yesterday. We'll work through the data and the open and take it from there.

Tuesday, November 25, 2008

Well the broader market broke the 3 day rally curse as we closed higher on the day on the dow and S&P for the first time since August. MLPS not so lucky. Down 2 on the index and really still working on 2 in a row let alone 3.

Kinder Morgan (KMP) Oneok (OKS) both index heavyweights and both down about 2 points each put a drag on the index today. Sunoco Logistics (SXL) up 2 and Hiland Partners (HLND) up 1 and change the 2 big winners today. Crosstex Energy LP (XTEX) up nearly 1 getting back the 1 it lost late yesterday. Otherwise no outstanding movers either way.

Winding down a bit for Thanksgiving which is my favorite pressure...just food!
One of the things i've decided to do at least for now is scale back on adding to mlp positions until we get some visibility on q1 distributions. Kinder Morgan (KMP) has given the all clear signal for them...but among the damaged mlps in single digit land; the market is telling you that it is forecasting a yield cut. IF and thats a big IF...the market is wrong...many of these stocks will double or even triple in a hurry. This will especially be true if the credit markets every get back to some semblence of normal. But for trading opportunities i think right now you are better off playing the leveraged ETF'S and ETN'S.

Last week i posted about using FAS as a way of taking advantage of triple leverage. What i missed was FAS was triple financials. Now as it happens the trade worked for me as i laddered in from 35 (started way too early) down to 12. I had an average price of 20 when it was all done and sold this morning pre-open at 25. I would have stayed away from financials but sometimes luck shines your way. Also hedged by selling call options and bought them back yesterday thanks to great executions and spreads wide enough to drive a mack truck through. Glory!

Large cap triple's symbol is BGU which is the better non financial...or at least less financial...and you get 3 times the move. Also DDM which is double dow industrials as another way to play upside in case we get left behind in mlp land. This story has a list of the available triple leveraged etns. Also story this morning on leveraged etfs starting for commodities and currencies and next week we will see gold and silver arrive. Food for thought.

Or campy 1960's television! That said the three day rally curse was something the late great wise and wiity Ed Hart use to allude to when we are in bear or bearish trading enviornments

Stock futures were down...then up 10 on the S&P and now selling again ahead of GDP which leads me to believe that....whoops now up 10 again on the S&P ahead of it looks to me like we have a chance here to break the 3 day rally curse. And of course MLPS will follow suit. Breaking news as the fed is taking action buying up loans and the market cheers!

Morgan Keegan downgrades Kinder Morgan (KMP), one of the few mlps to hold up in this mess. The company last night gave guidance on 2009 distributions which was positive. I imagine that if the market is in rally mode that the downgrade may not make any difference. No other headlines this morning. Energy is a little lower this morning after yesterday's big gains.

Two days until we give thanks kids...lets keep things in perspective!

Monday, November 24, 2008

I think for further guidance we should consult the Book of Armaments!