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Wednesday, December 03, 2008


Down open this morning after all the data noise is now out of the way so its another one of those high volitility moves we've all gotten used to. MLPS did nothing yesterday and will follow suit here. Not much happening corporate wise this morning and no upgrades or downgrades. Energy is flat this morning with oil straddling 47 dollars. Heating oil is at 1.57 right now. Amazing really.

We're going to have to chew through the month of December and that means tax loss selling. There might be a "few" people doing that this year. Scroll down to my post from last night about encouraging signs. I'm hoping we'll get selling out of the way this morning and some sort of rally attempt later this morning.


jcarroll1948 said...

Joe. I agree with your sentiment; I think the market is bottoming. For example, the S&P 500 pull back Monday did not even come close to the 11/21/08 low, and that's a good sign. Of course, a lower low is always possible and how long the bottoming will take until a sustained up move occurs is anyone's guess; could be days, months, or even quarters. Again, just my opinion, I think the problem in 1 to 3 years will be inflation, as the full effects of the current and coming stimulus work its way through the economy.

SHK said...

I agree that we will have inflation down the road. From the dot bubble, to the real estate bubble, to the credit bubble, and now to the Treasury bubble. The problem with all those bubbles was the the Fed was artificially keeping interest rates too low and creating so much money that it had nowhere to go but into speculative instruments of one kind or another. Now comes the solution: More and more and more massive injections of money into the system.

The current effect of this is to create artificial demand for safe money, treasuries. Where will it go when it comes out? To corporates, or some other instrument?

Sooner or later all this will come home to roost in the form of inflation and higher interest rates. If the Fed doesn't do it, the market will, as it has already and then it will be much worse.

The question for us is how will MLPs perform in that environment?