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Wednesday, October 31, 2007

After the close Oneok Partners (OKS) released earnings which beat the street and the company raised guidance again. Also Penn Virginia Holdings (PVG) issued earnings which looked good although PVG sold off at the close by 2 points. Could be end of quarter nonsense. And Penn Virginia Resources (PVR) put record numbers out as well.

The MLP index closed up 1.62 and is now clearly above the breakout point. Looks like we could be making an end of year run back toward 340.
The fed has come and gone doing 25 basis points and MLPS are rallying and at the highs of the day at 112.76. Now its the last hour fireworks.
Approaching lunchtime on fed day and the mlp index is up just under a point and just off the highs of the day. Ex distribution stocks lead the down list with Linn Energy down 90 cents but add back in the distribution. Same for Crosstex Energy (XTEX). Hiland (HLND) Natural Resource (NRP) and Energy Transfer Equity (ETE) off major fractions.

On the winners list Oneok LP (OKS) Copano (CPNO) Nustar Holdings (NSH) Enbridge Energy (EEP) and Kinder Morgan (KMP) among others are up 50 cents or better.

Waiting for the fed and last hour fireworks.
Enbridge Energy Partners (EEP) is raised to a buy from a hold at Citigroup.

Happy Halloween and what a day we have ahead of us. Last day of the month, last day of the year for mutual funds who close their books today, the fed meeting and a decision, and Halloween. Could you ask for more reasons for a confused and volatile enviornment?

Ex distributions continue this morning with Plains All American (PAA) among others locking payouts to holders so some index distortions continue. We have news this morning from Encore Energy Partners LP (ENP) as it posts earnings and distribution numbers and its the first distribution for this recent ipo. No other headlines this morning and no upgrades or downgrades.

MLPs closed down a point and a half on the index but off the lows and above the breakout. Big energy sold down hard yesterday after crude dropped 3 bucks. Crude is up this morning and nat gas is sitting over 8 dollars. Considering the XOI index was down 3% yesterday, it was hard for anything energy to hold a gain so the MLP performance was actually quite good on a relative basis. Natgas is up and over 8 dollars. The weather pattern in the east will be turning much colder over the next 2 weeks or so. Stock futures are 5 points higher on the S&P index.

Tuesday, October 30, 2007

Off 1.50 points on the MLP index but off the lows and we continue to have some ex-distribution distortions. Nustar Holdings(NSH) is up 1.50 . Martin Midstream (MMLP) and Enbridge Energy Partners (EEP) are both up about 1 point. Crosstex (XTEX) Buckeye Holdings (BGH) Sunoco Logistics (SXL) and Atlas Resource (ATN) are up fractionally.

Hiland Partners(HLND) is down 2 but was up 3 yesterday and it is thinly traded. EV Partners (EVEP) is down about 1 point and so is Crosstex (XTXI). Linn Energy (LINE) Inergy Holdings (NRGP) Legacy (LGCY) and Oneok LP (OKS) down major fractions.

MLPs probably being dragged a bit by the selloff in big energy which is being driven by crude being down about 2 dollars. But the volume is low and the tape has the feel of maybe making a rally attempt in the last hour.

MLPS moved late in the day yesterday and closed up over 2 points on the index and as a result we have now nicely cleared 310. So out of that W bottom formation on the chart i would say that we should make a serious challenge to the all time high of 342 in the medium term.

Meanwhile the Enbridge Energy Partners (EEP) holders are the definition of patience. They have not seen a distribution increase in years. And as a result the stock price has really gone nowhere over the long term. Your money certainly could have done better in many other MLPS.

The 3 year chart above actually isn't that bad but take a look at the 2 charts below and the story is a bit different.

Notice that the stock has essentially gone sideways since the late with a period where distributions went nowhere. And in the last 5 years the MLP index is up 100% while EEP is up far less. It has been a chronic underperformer.

Well wait no longer and let there be dancing in the streets as Enbridge posted earnings last night and boosted its distribution 2.5 cents and is indicating that more increases are possible down the road. Enbridge btw has an a 4% weighting in the MLP index. Also late yesterday Wachovia made some moves as it started Martin Midstream (MMLP)at upgraded Teekay Energy (TGP) to outperform and it started Holly Partners (HEP) at market perform Speaking of Holly Partners they posted earnings this morning which look pretty good. Last Friday they hiked their distribution by a penny.

Stock futures are lower and oil is down nearly 2 dollars this morning.

Monday, October 29, 2007

The MLP index is up nearly 1 point now as we head into the last hour. The rally is spreading across the entire group. Oneok LP (OKS) Nustar (NS) Alliance Resources (ARLP) and Alliance Holdings (AHGP) all up 1 point or more. Losers list is thinning a bit.
Essentially watching the paint dry after the lower open. The MLP index is off the lows and is hovering just under 310. A few ex-distributions like Oneok LP (OKS) by a buck distorting things a bit. Nustar(NS) Buckeye (BPL) Constellation (CEP) and Sunoco Logistics (SXL) all up close to 1 point each. Nustar Holdings (NSH) Calumet (CLMT) and E V Partners (EVEP) down about 50 cents apiece or more lead the losers list...nothing disastrous here by any means. Looks like most MLPS are split..half up and half or minus 50 cents of Friday's close.

Friday's solid up close puts us above all the moving averages and in position to finally clear the 310 level. We have a few things at work this week including the end of the year for mutual funds which have to close their books on 10/31. Also the fed meeting with a quarter of a point baked into the cake. And we will soon begin going ex-distribution en masse!

Its been a slow but steady repair and base building on the MLP chart so i feel confident we have the wind at our backs here for awhile.
Some news items this morning as Boardwalk Partners (BWP) posts earnings which posted a 3o% increase in net. Good numbers there for this chronic underperformer which i think one of these days will move back up. Lots of shares continue to be sold every time there is any kind of uptick here but eventually the pressure has to come off. Also this morning Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP) posts numbers and its distribution. Alliance Resource GP (AHGP) reports higher numbers and an increase in its distribution. BTW it appears to me that distribution increases this quarter as a whole are running a little higher than the last couple of quarters even when you adjust for takeovers. This is keeping a firm bid under MLPS.

So far this morning we have no upgrades or downgrades on the list. Oil approaching 93 bucks and stock futures are at the highs of the morning up 5 points on the S&P.

So i'm back from Breeders Cup which was terrific in spite of the rain. All horse players should try to go at least once in their lives. The atmosphere is terrific. Clearly the best race of the day was the Breeders Cup Distaff with an outstanding stretch duel by Hysterical Lady and Ginger Punch with Octave closing on the outside. You can watch it here at the Breeder's Cup website in case you missed it...or in case you are hoping for a different outcome. Had 2 winners in my picks and one was a 25 dollar horse (Lahahood in the Filly and Mare Turf).

Thursday, October 25, 2007

Okay kids...its time for Breeders Cup Picks

Monmouth Park













This is about as contentious a Breeders Cup as i have ever seen. I have been handicapping my brains out all week and that is the reason why my posting has been minimal. I have to say its been nothing but agony going through these races and seeing so many different directions i could go in.

I will not be posting Friday. I'll be back on Monday...hopefully with money in my pocket.

Lots of breaking news this morning. Lets start with Teppco Earnings which missed on earnings by a penny but beat revenue estimates...The company already boosted its distribution by a penny last week. Then we have Enterprise Products Partners (EPD) which also missed by a penny but revenues were in line with expectations. Duncan Partners (DEP) also posted its earnings numbers and they also missed by a penny. Must be a Dan Duncan thing that all three of his interests missed by a penny.

We have distribution hikes from Global Partners (GLP) which upped by three quarters of a cent! (who loves you baby!). Hiland Partners (HLND) and Hiland Holdings (HPGP) were slightly more generous with their distribution increases. And finally this morning Terra Nitrogen(TNH) posted good earnings numbers and more than doubled its distribution from a year ago. Their business is more seasonal so their distributions vary from quarter to quarter but thats what happens when your business is shit...literally!

This morning we have higher energy and high stock futures. Good day yesterday for MLPS as they were higher all day and closed near the highs of the day. So we'll work through the open and see how the corporate news impacts. No upgrades or downgrades this morning.

Wednesday, October 24, 2007

Dow is down 50 at this posting but we went from minus 200 to plus 7 about 10 minutes ago. Meanwhile MLPS doing very well today and the chart to me looks like it wants to hold this congestion zone and head higher in the next few weeks. Looking for a solid close. Clearing 309 puts us above all the moving averages.
So if you can't buy financials because the world is coming to an end...and you can't buy Amazon which is down 15 points on earnings...well MLPS look good to somebody. The index is up .25 in the face of a market selloff. Tape looking defensive today so we're getting attention. Legacy Partners (LGCY) leads the way up over 1 dollar. And Sunoco Logistics (SXL) also up 1 as is Atlas Pipeline (APL). Oneok LP (OKS) Targa Resources (NGLS) Copano (CPNO) and DCP Midstream (DPM) are down solid fractions as the biggest losers.

Encouraging so far today in the face of a terrible tape.
MLP index about to turn higher as overall market is selling off. By the way add Crosstex (XTEX,XTXI) to the list of distribution growers.

While the rest of the market is in a sink hole this morning and MLPS are slightly lower on the index...anything with the word "Atlas" in it is taking off this morning. Atlas Holdings (AHD) Atlas Resource (ATN) and Atlas Pipeline Partners (APL) all up 1 point or more this morning as they continue to react to their hefty distribution boosts yesterday. This seems to be putting a bit of a floor underneath MLPS as a whole. Constellation Partners (CEP) boosts its distribution by 22% but the stock is just flat this morning.

Market weakness will probably hold us back this morning. We've got 4.37 on the 10 year which is supportive. Atlas Pipeline's spread is over 3 1/2 points on the yield so as mentioned yesterday the big yielders have some room to run.

Tuesday, October 23, 2007

Distribution boosts galore tonight. First off Atlas Pipeline Partners (APL) which came out at 3:50pm with a hike to 91 cents from 87 cents and the stock took off on the news and closed up over 1 point. Atlas Holdings boosts as well to 32 cents which is up from 26 cents last quarter. After the close Atlas Resources (ATN) boosts to 55 cents from 43 cents last quarter. The yield here is 6.9%. APL yields a whopping 7.9%. Looks to me like there is room to rally here in these oversold issues.

Also hiking Williams Partners (WPZ) to 55 cents from 52.5 cents. And Plains All American(PAA) got a midday upgrade to buy from hold at Deutche Bank.

Nice close today at the days highs and above the 34, 55 and 200 day moving averages Now we need to clear the 89 day which is up around 309. Hefty distribution boosts might help take prices higher tomorrow. We can only hope!
The MLP index is up over 1 point now as it moves back with the rest of the market. Winners seeing their gains extended. Lots of Buckeye (BPL) up 1 and change while Buckeye Holdings (BGH) is down over 50 cents...pct moves the same.

The index is above the 200 day moving average...the 34 day moving average and nearing the 55 day moving average...the 89 day is up around 309.
Moving pretty much in tandem with the overall market which is up 15 points as of this posting...but we were up 83 and down 25 at different points this morning. The MLP index was up 1 and change at the open and is now just under the flat line.

Sunoco Logistics (SXL) and Buckeye Partners (BPL) are 1 point plus winners today. Global (GLP) Legacy (LGCY) Crosstex (XTXI) and Calumet (CLMT) were up major fractions.

Energy Transfer Equity (ETE) Holly Partners (HEP) Plains All American (PAA) and Oneok LP (OKS) are leading the way lower down fractionally.

Dow was on a 5 day losing streak which it broke yesterday...MLPS are on a 4 day losing streak which was not broken yesterday but we did come back most of the way and as the chart shows we are sitting in this congestion zone where all the important fibbonacci moving averages are converging. We are above the 34 day and only slightly below the 200 day...which btw might get taken care of right at the open today. We need to clear 308 and get back above the breakout and ideally above 311 on a closing basis would be nice too.

No news this morning so far. Sunoco Logistics put up good earnings numbers last and boosted the distribution so we should see some movement here today. Encore Energy Partners gets a nuetral rating today from UBS.

Monday, October 22, 2007

Just to let everybody know...i will be at Breeders Cup on Friday and Saturday so i will be taking a day off Friday from posting. Hopefully nothing big happens.

After the close news from Sunoco Logistics as it boosts the distribution and reports record earnings.

MLPS came back and cut their losses closing over 305. MLPS remain under the push and pull of the overall market so we'll see where tomorrow takes us.

Sorry for the late first post but had internet and computer issues this morning which are now resolved. We opened lower and moved down 3 points on the MLP index. Now as the market turned so has the index and we are off the lows and back over 304. We are in an area where there are lots of moving average lines crossing and the 200 day moving average is at 306 so we are back under it for now. If today's turnaround is real we could see us get everything back by the close. Wishful thinking on my part perhaps but i think its important that we close near the highs of the day here in order to remain optimistic for the medium turn and that the 290 bottom has some value.

News this morning as Calumet (CLMT) makes a purchase and indicates that high crude oil is having impact on its cash flow numbers for the quarter. Still the stock is up on the day by a small fraction. Martin Midstream (MMLP) ups the distribution for the quarter. The stock is down 54 cents but well off the lows. Elsehwere Atlas Pipeline Partners (APL) and Atlas Holdings (AHD) are down 1 point each. Most of the big cap mlps are down and impacting the index but we are continuing to build off the lows.

Friday, October 19, 2007

When the dow is down 250 its pretty hard to move up against it. MLPS are down with the index off over 2 points and coming into moving average support. 304.66 is where 34 day moving average is which is important in my view. The Dow is also testing moving average support.
Winners are few and include Linn Energy (LINE) Copano (CPNO) Atlas Resource (ATN) and Inergy Holdings (NRGP) up small fractions. EV Partners (EVEP)is down 1.42 as the biggest loser today.
Magellan Midstream ups its distribution as does Magellan Holdings (MGG). Both stocks are down small fractions.

On the last matter first Legacy Reserves (LGCY) joins the growing list of distribution increases as it hikes a penny. Meanwhile Targa Resources priced its offering of stock at 26.87 to pay for its recent purchase.Plains All Amercian (PAA) also hiked its distribution as reported last night. Nothing else on the wires this morning but its a Friday and its options expiration day. Watch Linn Energy (LINE) which has a huge open interest showing in both OCT 30 calls and puts. Could mean for some price movement in both directions.

The MLP index closed fractionally higher yesterday and it looks to me like it wants to go higher. 311.27 is the weekly high so far and it would be bullish if we could take that out and close at the highs of the week.
No upgrades or downgrades this morning.

Thursday, October 18, 2007


Nice comeback yesterday for the MLP index which was down nearly 2 points and rallied all the way back to just shy of the flatline. Last week's breakout remains intact.

This morning we should start with a nice opening boost from Kinder Morgan Partners which last night boosted its distribution by 3 cents to 88 cents and showed an increase in distributable cash flow of 26%.

Its chart mirrors the MLP index almost tick for tick and is a large component of the index. Earnings were up 5% in the quarter.

JPM Morgan is making calls on a number of MLPS. It starts Eagle Rock (EROC) Enterprise Products Partners (EPD) and Markwest (MWE) at overweight. It puts neutral ratings on Kinder Morgan (KMP) Regency (RGNC) Plains All American (PAA) and Teppco (TPP).

10 year rates falling again and under 4.50% as Bank of America reminds us things in credit land are not all that good.

For those of you looking for a distribution reinvestment plan, Teppco comes to the rescue.

Wednesday, October 17, 2007

Made up almost all of the 2 point loss in the last 30 minutes and closed down just 0.29. All critical support levels and breakout points held nicely today.

After the close Kinder Morgan Partners boosts its distribution by 3 cents to 88 cents and a 26% increase in distributable cash flow (DCF). Numbers look good.

Linn Energy announces its distribution and reiterates its going to 2.52 annual next quarter.

Copano (CPNO) boosts its distribution but we knew that already! And Natural Resource Partners (NRP) ups its payout.
Overall market is selling off after a higher open. Interest rates collapsing on the hideous housing data. MLPS down 1 on the index but they seem to be holding up okay and above critical levels in here Atlas Holdings (AHD) is the biggest loser down over 1 point. Lots of fractional losers on the board.

Holly Partners (HEP) Duncan Partners (DEP) Inergy Holdings (NRGP) and Sunoco Logistics (SXL) lead the list of fractional winners.

A couple of points of reference....staying above 308 is important...MORE IMPORTANT would be to stay above the 34 day movinga average which has turned higher for the first time since July and thats down around 305 and the 200 day moving average at 306. So we are at one of those crictical junctures.

We are consolidating it appears above the base breakout at 307-308. 8 day winning streak ended yesterday with a 1 point loss on the MLP index but nothing out of the ordinary in terms of movement. Oneok LP boosted its distribution by another penny to 1.01. Today we will get earnings and distribution numbers from Kinder Morgan Partners (KMP) which will be out after the close today. Otherwise its no news and no upgrades or downgrades.

Breitburn (BBEP) leads the losers list down 60 cents. Martin Midstream (MMLP) and Duncan Partners (DEP) lead the winners list with fractional gains of around 50 cents. Everybody else is somewhere in the middle.

Look for more consolidation today as the market decides which way to go. Its important that we stay above the breakout point as confirmation of last weeks move.

Tuesday, October 16, 2007

Breaking news from Duncan Energy Partners (DEP) as it boosts its distribution as does Enterprises Products Partners (EPD) and the news was good for a few upticks in the MLP index which went from 309.10 to 309.60 rather quickly down fractionally. Alliance Holdings (AHGP) Energy Transfer(ETP) and Sunoco Logistics (SXL) are among the winners although they are only up fractionally.

Targa Resource Partners commenced their stock offering and amended their credit line so the stock is down nearly 1 point. Most other losers are confined to fractions...nothing overly devestating by any measure.

The MLP index is down about 30 cents right now...nothing catastrophic here to be sure. We have about a 50-50 split on winners and losers in the group. No corporate news this morning and we have Goldman starting Spectra Energy Partners (SEP) at a neutral as the only developement on the upgrade downgrade list.

8 winning days in a row on the index and yesterday we moved against the market trend which is bullish. We'll see if today will make nine but a down day is due sometime.

Post is short this morning as i have some things to do. I will update later.

Monday, October 15, 2007

We saw a rare minus sign for awhile today after the higher open. MLPS sold off with the rest of the stock market but higher energy prices and higher energy stocks seemed to have turned us higher again. The index is up a small fraction and over 310. Buckeye (BPL) Linn Energy (LINE) Cheniere (CQP) Atlas Resources (ATN) and Buckeye Holdings (BGH) are all up major fractions.

Alliance Resource Holdings is down 1 as the biggest loser. Constellation (CEP) and Hiland LP(HLND) among others are fractionally lower.

Over the next 2 weeks or so we will be getting our stream of earnings and payout boosts.We continue on our winning streak which is at 7. We are also have broken out on the daily chart out of that trading range so i guess the next logical place to head to will be the old high at 342.

I guess because of the magnitude of the decline in August has me nervous about this but i am trying to keep the emotion out of it and keeping focus on an improving chart pattern.
Meanwhile notice the Teppco (TPP) chart which has pretty much mirrored the MLP index in the last 2 months. It has not broken above its trading range but the distribution announcement on Friday might goose this one today. The question for Teppco is whether this boost is something holders might be getting in future quarters or was this the occasional one quarter wonder that Teppco is known for.
Three weeks ago Goldman Sachs downgraded Buckeye Holdings to hold from buy when the stock was sitting around 30 bucks. Now at 29 Goldman is upgrading the stock to buy from a hold. Now when they downgraded the stock it had already been down from 39. So now a whole dollar later they are telling us to buy? This may sound silly but did they downgrade the stock before the end of the last quarter in order to upgrade it near the beginning of the new one?
Other than the upgrade there isn't much going on this morning. Crude oil is peeking above 85 bucks this morning and natural gas is up 20 cents and over 7 bucks. Weather patterns are changing over the US and there might be some colder weather lurking down the road toward the end of the month and for the beginning of November.

Friday, October 12, 2007

Those of you wondering what is going on with Linn Energy (LINE) and the heavy volume need wonder no longer. Looks like additional shares are being issued as per the buyouts of a few months ago. Lots of shorting ahead of the issuance of shares is my best guess.

Also Teppco (TPP) boosts the distribution by 1 cent...who loves you baby! More of these coming in the next few weeks as ex-distribution dates approach.
We're up 1.82 and nearing 311 so the breakout above the 290-308 trading range is getting more traction. Hiland (HLND) is back to 52 and is up 1 and change on the day...the biggest winner so far. Hiland Holdings (HPGP) is down 1 and is the biggest loser but not much volume in either stock. Terra Industries (TRA) and Energy Transfer (ETP) are also up around 1 point each. And there is the usual round of fractional gains among the bigger cap issues. EV Partners (EVEP) is up 60 cents on yesterday's insider buy.

Williams (WPZ) Constellation (CEP) and Martin Midstream (MMLP) among the losers down fractionally. No news drivers.

While the morning's big headline is that they gave the nobel prize to the worlds biggest gasbag (and i thought he was unbearable before) MLPS had their 6th straight winning day even though the overall market did a big reversal yesterday around 2pm. Still some MLPS like Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) among others sold off after a nice rally. Some insider buying filings last night were posted as we see a nice size purchase in Energy Transfer Equity (ETE) and also in EV Partners (EVEP) so the big boys continue to see opportunities provided by the recent sell-off.

No corporate developements and no upgrades or downgrades this morning so far but this is an early post and i will put up any headlines that i see crossing before the open.

Thursday, October 11, 2007

Sorry for the lack of posts today as i had singing duty at church this afternoon. I'm an egomanical tenor... very sensitive!

I see there was a reversal that took place this afternoon in the overall market led by many of the agricultural stocks that have rallied big recently. MLPS closed higher for the 6th day in a row although well off the highs. We could use a small pullback and look for the moving averages which are now below us again should provide solid support.

more later.

Hard to believe that 1 week ago we were on the verge of a breakdown staring into the abyss. And here we are one week later; 5 very powerful up days in a row and today at least at the start givess us 6. Whats more we are carving out a bullish "W" bottom and we are breaking out above the neckline. So unless we see a mega reversal today we may be getting ready to tackle that old high from July at 342.

The daily charts above are clearly bullish and the weekly chart below has not quite turned yet but that one is about to go to a buy and that is a longer term signal so we will watch that one that could give us a verdict tomorrow.

This morning there is no news on the wire but RBC starts EV Partners (EVEP) at an outperform so that should goose the stock this morning. So fasten seatbelts for takeoff.

Wednesday, October 10, 2007

308.99 looks vunerable here as we near a 4 point gain heading into the close. We will have a breakout close above the 9/5 high at 307.60 which means we have put in a "W" bottom on the chart and as the moving averages become support lines. Full steam ahead here.
BTW we are above the highest close of 307.65 which occured on 9/5. The intraday high was 308.99. So we are headed for a breakout here at the close above the top of the range.
Up over 3 points at 308. This inspite of a sharply lower dow...although the broad market is only a touch lower. Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) Kinder Morgan (KMP),Alliance Resource Holdings (AHGP),Global (GLP) Alliance Resource (ARLP) and Penn Virginia (PVR) all up 1 or more. Hiland Partners and Hiland Holdings (HLND,HPGP), Enbridge (EEP), Energy Transfer Holdings (ETE), DCP Midstream (DPM), Atlas Pipeline (APL),Oneok (OKS) Holly Partners (HEP)...all up major fractions.

Constellation Energy (CEP) is down 1, Nustar (NSH) Inergy Holdings (NRGP) and General Marine (GMR) all down fractions.

308.99 is the next line in the sand we have to get through. A pull back has to come sometime but it looks like a good bet to close over the 200 day moving average down at 305.83.
The MLP index is up over 2 points so we have leapfrogged above the 200 day moving average. This is our 5th day in a row of higher prices. 308.99 is the next important level that needs to go.
100,000 HITS!!!!
UP 5% IN 4 DAYS!

That was the move so far from last Thursday's 290 bottom and successful retest of the August low. We are now above the 34 day moving average which is bullish. The 200 day moving average is sitting about a point above us. Needless to say we've made up a ton of ground in a short period of time

Two keys technically will be getting that 34 day moving average above the 200 day moving average. We're not there yet. And second will be what happens as we near the 308-310 level. We need a close above 308.99 with followthrough to confirm that we have broken out of the bottom base..otherwise we remain in a tight 20 point trading range between 290 and 310.

This morning we have some news as Atlas Pipeline Partners registers lots of shares for holders who may be selling from time to time. No link provided so far. Otherwise no news. Bear Sterns cuts General Marine (GMR) to peer perform from outperform.

Tuesday, October 09, 2007

304.45 and new highs on the day up 3 and change. 200 day moving average looms large boys and girls.
Up 2.89 and a few ticks off the highs of the day as we have run now from 290 to 304 in 3 1/2 trading days. Nice 1 point moves in Buckeye Partners (BPL), Energy Transfer (ETP) Nustar (NS) and Alliance Holdings (ARLP). Oneok LP (OKS) and Williams (WPZ) also up nearly 1 point.

I've noticed some slow bleeding today in Crosstex (XTEX) and Linn Energy (LINE). It isn't so much that they are down hard. Its more like a stream of small sales along the way. Looks like someone has been liquidating a position. However Linn has now turned higher so it could be that its just a matter of the selling to play itself out. We're at that time of year when some big holders may be closing out positions for the year. Mutual funds for example need to clean up their books by 10/31.
Now trading above the 34 day moving average as the MLP index rallies up nearly 2 points and over 303...just 2 points away from the 200 day.

By the way i started this blog in july of 2005 and i am now approaching my 100,000 page view! Who will it be?

The damage repair continues this morning as we are higher and for the first time since late July we are straddling to move above the 34 day moving average, which is bullish. 305 and change is where the 200 day lies and my guess is we are headed there over the short term.

No news this morning and no upgrades or downgrades. The bigger caps are higher like Oneok (OKS) Nustar (NS), Plains All American(PAA) Boardwalk (BWP) are up by fractions. Alliance Resource Holdings (AHGP) which was up 1 yesterday is up another point today.

Some fractional losers like Williams (WPZ) EV Partners (EVEP) and a few others. Looks like its rotational action here.

Monday, October 08, 2007

The holiday mode has slowed the pace of trading a bit. It doesn't hurt that its 80 degrees again in NYC so why stay home? The dow is down but the MLP index is up .60 and is extending its rally for a 3rd day. Although its not ripping to the upside like the last 2 days its understandable that it should consolidate a bit. Buckeye (BPL) Energy Transfer (ETP,ETE) Nustar (NS) and Oneok (OKS) all big caps and all leading the way higher by nice fractional gains of half a buck or at times more.

On the losing side Penn Virginia Holdings (PVG) and Nustar Holdings (NSH) were both down 1 point early but they have cut losses somewhat. Some of last weeks bigger winners like EV Partners (EVEP) is down a fraction but on very low volume.

Even on low volume..upside is upside and its encouraging that the rally is continuing.

We have Columbus Day in the US, Thanksgiving Day in Canada, and Sports Day in Japan so trading might be a touch subdued. Still for those of us around today we will be keying on last week's powerful late week reversal and and see whether it continues today. Charts and technicals are short term bullish right now so the first challenge will be to get above the 2oo day moving average which sits around 305. Also the 34 day moving average which i watch for short term support is at 302.

Now i have to admit i have never quite grasped the point and figure chart but for those of you who like to use it, i would point out that it has a bullish projection on the MLP index of 360! First things first we need to get above some short term support lines but we seem to be heading in the right direction and the August closing low of 290.80 has been successfully re-tested.

A couple of side notes. Steve...or for those of us who love him "LUMPY"...has been tireless in his maintainence of the YAHOO MLP RESEARCH GROUP. He religiously uploads all kinds of research goodies but was concerned that no one was using it. Well it seems many of you lurk quietly behind the boards and are using it. For those of you who sent emails acknowleding this behavior and thanking Lumpy for his work...good for you. You were brought up right! For those of you who haven't...a thank you note is in order! And for those of you who haven't been there the link is highlighted a few sentences back and its on the blogroll. There is some good info posted there that could answer many of your questions about what some "experts" think about your favorite MLP.

Its quiet this morning in MLP land but we do have Inergy (NRGY,NRGP) finishing a takeover and announcing 2008 guidance. It looks bullish for the company but we'll see if it is priced in. Lately we know that good news hasn't exactly lifted individual issues. No other corporate developements this morning and no upgrades or downgrades.

Some of you have been posting about upcoming MLP IPO's. Factoids who has probably the best mlp info website around has info about ipos coming up soon. Check out his site if you haven't already. No MLP investor should invest without it!

Friday, October 05, 2007

Up nearly 2% on the day at 300.45. Dow powering ahead and we are a leadership group. Things are definitely better!!!
Nearing 300 on the MLP index.

Yesterday morning we were sitting just above 290...right now we are 1 point below 300. Up 4 points on the day. I think this bolsters the arguement that at the very least we're headed for the top of the trading range at 310. And we are going to close higher for the week thanks to the last 2 days. Also this weekly chart is telling me that the bottom is in at 290.
MLP index at 298.21 and at new highs for the day.
Its looking more and more like yesterday was "the" bottom as we are up nearly 3 points on the index this morning at 298. Lots of buying and followthrough from yesterday. Some MLPS that did not participate yesterday are playing a little catch up today. E V Partners (EVEP) Nustar Holdings (NSH) Markwest Hydrocarbon (MWP) and Regency (RGNC) are all up 1 point or more. Hiland Holdings (HPGP), Williams (WPZ) Markwest (MWE) and Oneok (OKS) are all up nearly 1 point. Calumet (CLMT), Breitburn (BBEP) Linn Energy (LINE) Constellation (CEP), Natural Resource (NRP) Holly Partners (HEP) all up major fractions.

Only 5 issues are down right now. Atlas Pipeline (APL) DCP Midstream (DPM) and Martin Midstream (MMLP) all down small fractions and could turn as the day wears on.

Nice to see this rally unlike Monday when the dow was up 200 and we sold off.
Whoops...Goldman upgrades Regency (RGNC) to buy from hold. Stock has been beaten down with everything else around here.

Which would be quite nice! I would like to see another up day today to confirm that yesterday was a bottom and that the next move might be back to 310 or so which keeps us in a trading range.

I won't speculate beyond that. Citigroup has put out an extensive research report discussing MLPS and what is happening. They have their theory and thanks to Carlos you can read some of it. The full report is on the Yahoo Research Board for MLPS dated 10/3. Registration is required but there quite a bit of good info there. Citigroup is making comparisons to 2005 where MLPS declined from july through december and than rallied in January 2006 and they are forecast a repeat. They argue supply overhang of shares and new ipos will keep prices down until then. My take on it is that brokerages are usually late to the game when it comes to recognizing what is going on. By the time they figure it out it is usually 2/3rds done. This correction btw is far sharper than the one in 2005 and perhaps the bulk of it was done in those 10 days in August. We retested the 290 closing bottom so i think we could be in a base building period now between 290 and 310. Short term if we get a market friendly number this morning on the unemployment stats...mlps should have another good day.

Stock futures are higher this morning. No corporate developements and no upgrades or downgrades so far. So fingers are crossed that we can go 2 for 2.

Thursday, October 04, 2007

Nice finish with over a 4 point gain, a close near the high for the day, and a key reversal on the charts! Now the question is...was that "a" bottom or "the" bottom????
Closing in on a 4 point gain on the index and nearing 295!

Running now above 294 up 3 points on the day!
Gains on the index are accellerating as we head into the last hour. 293.60 and climbing. My God even Boardwalk Partners is up today by 10 cents...and that thing never goes up!
Getting near 293 and in key reversal land!
Gains extending and spreading out. The index now has a real shot of pulling off a key reversal today. E V Partners (EVEP) leads the winners list up 1.42. Sunoco Logistics (SXL) Eagle Rock (EROC), Buckeye (BPL) Plains All American (PAA) TC Pipelines (TCLP) Global Partners (GLP) and Oneok LP (OKS) among those up strong fractions.

Losers continue to move off their lows. Constellation Partners (CEP) Atlas Resource (ATN) still leads the losers list down around 1 point apiece. Calumet (CLMT) and Natural Resource (NRP) are down major fractions.
Dare i say it but a close above 292.94 would be a key reversal. We are 1 point below that right now.
Heading into lunchtime and the winners list is getting a little longer here. The MLP index is now up 28 ticks to 291.29 and gaining some confidence. Looks like we may have some sort of short term tradeable bottom being put in..jury is still out...but i am feeling a bit confident. Plains All American (PAA) seems to be leading the way here up 37 cents. A number of others that have been punished quite severely lately also turning. Eagle Rock (EROC) which went to 18.69 this morning is now at 19.07 and up 36 cents. E V Partners (EVEP) is up nearly 1 at 34. Martin Midstream (MMLP) Penn Virginia (PVG) and Buckeye (BPL) also fractional winners.

Atlas Resource (ATN) remains down 1.45 as the biggest loser and DCP Midstream (DPM) also down 92 cents although that one has come off its low.

We're now at 290.40 and within striking distance of 291.58 which is the high of the day achieved right after the open.
Let the heavens be glad and the earth rejoice!
the sea and what fills it resound!
For the MLP INDEX is up 2 ticks!
Joy to all in MLP land!
MLPS about to turn higher as measured by the index.
We seem to be inching back to the flat line here..down just a handful of ticks now at 390.85. Bigger caps continue to stablize in here. Process is slow but at least its a glimmer of light. Besides, they can't go down every day.

Sorry for the late first post but i thought to myself, why suffer more pain when i could bike 20 or 30 i did that and got it out of the way. And now that the open is done and we've worked through the first hour noise let us sit back this morning and ponder some signs.

First off usually the big caps are the ones that turn first and later yesterday a few of the higher cap MLPS stopped going down like Plains All American (PAA), Teppco (TPP) among others. And this morning we are seeing small upticks in these big caps. Not much but at least most of them are no worse than even.

Second...We held the closing low by just a few ticks yesterday and we are probing below it this morning. So far the selling mommentum seems to be waining.

Third...what losses we do have this morning seemed to be relatively contained.

Now be advised that all this can get undone pretty quickly and there really isn't much support on the charts in my view. If we break down from here the intraday lows near 280 could be the next logical spot. All of this of course is my never to be humble opinion and it is subject to being completely wrong!

We're down 0.63 on the index around 290.40. In past days we'd be down 1 or 2 points on the index at this stage of the day. Atlas Resource Partners (ATN) undergoing portfolio blowout this morning down 1 and change. Natural Resource Partners (NRP) is down 75 cents and is also on the losers list. As mentioned before some small winner in the big cap MLPS like Oneok LP (OKS) . Atlas Pipeline (APL) is also a fractional winner as is Hiland Partners (HLND).

Legacy (LGCY) got an upgrade to buy from Raymond James this morning and it is also up a small fraction. Crosstex (XTXI) is up again and while all this has been going on...this one has been rallying and sits just below its 52 week high.

Wednesday, October 03, 2007

We managed to close just above the August low on the last couple of 291.05. Monitoring the tape for after hours news. We have an at INSIDER SALE at Crosstex (XTXI) which has been among the best performers in the group. Nothing else on the wire this evening so far.

And for those of you who think this is all about democrats and taxes check this out. Even the socialists disagree with you...this move ain't about taxes.
Back near the lows of the day. The higher prices in some of the bigger caps was giving me hope here but i guess it was too much to ask. If you see a towel go by...its me...throwing it in.

Just broke to new lows as we post and on track for a new closing low here. I hate to think we need to gutwrench another 10 points lower to retest the 280 level.
Oneok LP (OKS) has also turned higher here. MLP index at 291.15
Some of the big cap MLPS have turned higher like Teppco and Plains All American. Enterprise is nearly flat and Kinder Morgan is down just a few ticks...may be a sign as the big boys are always the first to turn.
I am predicting MLPS will rally in the last hour.
Well we probed the closing low on the index and got to 290.85. Is the test successful. Well we will evaluate at 4pm.

Meanwhile the ugliness continues but there are a few issues that are higher like Energy Transfer Partners (ETP), Plains All American (PAA) and Magellan Mistream (MMP) all up small fractions.

As i post the index is back over 291. I would love to see them get a rally going in the last hour.
Williams (WPZ) Genesis (GEL) Nustar (NSH) and Hiland (HLND) join the one point or more losers list. Were at 291.27 and at the lows of the day. Oddly the Bear Sterns ETN on MLPS is up .05 on the day. Still the damage continues as we approach the lunchtime hour. This is where the selling stopped yesterday but it looks like the August closing low will get a challenge at some point in the day. UGH!
The selling continues at a slow drip pace on the index but yesterday's 2 biggest losers DCP Midstream (DPM) and Constellation (CEP) are today's biggest losers down nearly 2 on both. Both stocks are way off their highs up around 50 and both have taken out their August lows. EV Partners (EVEP) is holding above its August lows and down 1 and change. Holly Partners (HEP) is above its August lows and is actually up on the day.

Enjoy the comments and please by all means express your feelings. I agree with the poster that we are fine long term...we have this short term mess to get through. Selling is definitely forced and btw it won't belong before we have distribution increases coming for this quarter. Insiders in a number of these MLPS have appeared out of the woodwork to make open market purchases. Would they be doing this with their own money if they thought business conditions were going to be bad?

Page views on the blog continue to spike and this happened last time as we bottommed. Also most of the selling yesterday took place in the morning and MLPS went sideways with an upward bias yestereday afternoon. 291.39 is the intraday low so far and we are just a few ticks above that as of this posting.
292 just at 291.90
Well we are just ticks off yesterday's low and testing it now. Constellation (CEP) and DCP Midstream (DPM) are both down over 1 dollar and lead the way lower. And as i type we have taken out yesterday's low and hit 292 even. The 290.88 close is the next number to watch. A few winners out there but nothing to right home about. Amerigas (APU) was up 25 cents earlier on earnings and guidance and its still holding on the a 10 cent gain.

We just can't seem to buy and up day.

The day the fed cut rates (9/18) we closed at 303.95 on the MLP index and there was hope. Here we are on 10/3 at 292.86 down 11.09 or nearly 4% while the rest the market has rallied to new all time highs.

We have all struggled as to the whys for all of this. I think this may just boil down to the fact that our group being more defensive is seeing money coming out and heading for the truly sexier groups typical of a post rate cut market. Hell even the housing stocks were up yesterday; how sad is that! I would say that the excuse of the so-called tax changes is just plain bullshit. First off there is nothing new here that hasn't been out there for months. Secondly the tax changes are directed at priviate equity and not energy mlps. And thirdly the Schumer threat to include em all is a poison pill to prevent changing the tax status of priviate equity. Democrats continue to back away from this anyway. So lets put that to bed once and for all. I did notice yesterday large volume spikes in some mlps where shares were being thrown out the window on no news. Constellation Partners (CEP) was down nearly 5 points on 10 times normal volume for example. Could we have seen the final blowout yesterday?

Some earnings news this morning on Amerigas (APU) as it puts out good numbers and guidance for next year. No other news this morning and no upgrades or downgrades.

Overall market starts lower this morning so lets see if a more defensive tape brings in some buyers.

Tuesday, October 02, 2007

Some selling in the final 30 minutes but we are still managing to hold above the intraday low. Constellation Energy (CEP) is down 4 and news...DCP Midstream (DPM) down 2 and change,Genesis (GEL) down 2 and change. Linn Energy (LINE) ,Williams (WPZ), Calumet (CLMT) and Breitburn (BBEP) down 1 or more.

Lots of volume in some of these today...well above somebody is blowing out their portfolio. Linn Energy (LINE) has a going foward yield now of 8.6%...almost 4 above the 10 year.

Duncan Energy Partners (DEP) is up 66 cents and is one of today's few winners. The MLP index is at 292.64 down just under 2 points as of this post. 20 minutes to go.
Looks like we may see 293 again before 292. Prices are firming albiet an inch at a time. Most MLPS are lower but they are off their worst levels.

Is it a bottom or "the" bottom????
We've been essentially going sideways since hitting the lows around 11:30 this morning. At least we have not seen new lows during this afternoon. Still down over 2 points here and sitting just above 292.
I hear the pattering of tiny little upticks. 292.60
Well at least 292 seems be holding but it could be because all the sellers are out to lunch!
Should we wave goodbye to 292.00? Its very close. Low of the day 292.06
Selling continues...i can barely find an uptick anywhere. That "i'm going to vomit" feeling is gradually taking hold. The index is down 2 points at 292.59. The winners list continues to shrink with just a handful of issues on it and all off their highs. Constellation (CEP) is down 3.50 with no news. DCP Midstream (DPM) down 2.35, Genesis (GEL) down 1.77. Linn Energy (LINN) down 1.32. Copano (CPNO) down 1.01.

Down 2.15 now at 292.33. That 290.88 close is looming large here.
BTW...isn't it funny that since Cramer recommended MLPS as good investements..this group has been probably the worst place to be? Of course long term he'll be correct but its one of those Murphy's law applications.
Some ugly moves early on in a few issues. Constellation Partners (CEP) is down 3 dollars, DCP Midstream (DPM) down 2 and change. Sunoco Logistics (SXL) EV Partners (EVEP) and Targa Resources (NGLS) down 1 and change...Targa coming off a 12 million share stock offering. Strong fractional minus signs in Oneok LP (OKS) Legacy (LGCY) Copano (CPNO) and Genesis (GEL).

Martin Midstream (MMLP) is up 1 point. Both Hilands (HLND,HPGP) are fractional winners. Crosstex (XTXI) is closing in on 40 dollars here. Energy Transfer (ETP) is a fractional winner.
The MLP index is down 1 point at 293 and change.

I thought i'd start this morning with some charts to lay some perspective here. Short term things are horrible. No arguement there. Since the fed cut 50 basis points the overall market has rallied to new highs while our group has sold off. In fact we're down 6 out of the last 8 sessions. Last quarter we were down 11%. But take a look at the second chart which shows us where we've come from since 1 year ago and you'll notice that we are up double digits percentage wise plus distribution.

Also here on the weekly chart we are coming into important support around 290 on the chart. 290 also represents the lowest close in the August collapse.
So by alot of measures we are oversold. A few positive divergences are showing up such as relative strength for example. So lets keep our heads here. A few more insiders did some open market purchases yesterday including a big one at Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) so the "Potters" of the world are not selling they are buying.
MLPS open flat this morning on another morning where there are no corporate drivers. Energy is selling off as crude falls. Nat gas is a little higher. No upgrades or downgrades either so there isn't much to trade on.
So fingers crossed that we can at least stop going down today.

Monday, October 01, 2007

Gotta love it!
In the "it must be nice to have all that free cash department...We have an absolutely huge open market insider purchase by a director at Energy Transfer Partners (ETP). We also have an insider purchase at Legacy Partners. Targa Resources files to sell 12 million plus shares.
Btw for what its worth my page views have been spiking higher so lots of you are reading. FWIW spiking readership has co-incided with trading bottoms in the past...if past is prologue
I guess the only way to describe the MLP tape is demoralizing especially in the face of a 200pt+ plus up day and new all time highs. We have obviously been left behind at least for the time being. Crosstex (XTXI) Calumet (CLMT) and Enterprise (EPD) among just a handful of fractional winners. EPD has a big weighting in the MLP index otherwise we would be down far more than 1.60.

Lots of losers like Linn Energy(LINE), Breitburn (BBEP) Plains All American (PAA) Eagle Rock (EROC), Natural Resource (NRP) and Copano (CPNO) all down around around 1 point each. Crosstex (XTEX), Markwest(MWE), DCP Midstream (DPM) and Atlas Pipeline(APL) all down strong fractions. Markwest (MWE) has the 61.12 offer on the table for Markwest Hydrocarbon(MWP) and that one was down 1.29...4 points below the offer price...but it has cut its losses to just 29 cents.
Well the implosion resumes...the index is down 1.33...under 295 and at the lows of the day while the dow straddles 14k and new all time highs. Nothing new to offer here. It seems hopeless.

Lets put this in perspective. Down about 11% for the quarter and since i've doing this probably the worst quarter i've experienced. But year over year we are up about 10% and that doesn't include 4 distributions which brings year over year total return at over 16%.

So in the scope of things we're still in a pretty good place. We have not broken down here and we certainly have lots of headroom to rally here. The 200 day moving average is at 306.44 and have been trading below it for quite awhile. I know some of you have expressed waiting to move above it before wading back in. Right now we're 11 points below it.

This morning is starting quiet. No news and no upgrades or downgrades. DOW about 120 pts from new all time highs.

Back to a post from a couple of days poster i think expresses well what is going on. I agree with most of what he says here particularly about the hedge funds. Worth a read...and thank you poster for your thoughts.