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Monday, November 30, 2009

A little higher and then a little lower which is where we are now after lunch. The mlp index is down about .70 after being up about the same. Williams (WPZ) continues however to move nicely higher and has been in a solid uptrend since its earnings. TC Pipelines (TCLP) and Oneok LP (OKS) are the leading losers down about the same..75 or so. No news drivers on this last day of the month.

Took the day off from blogging Friday but did have my eye on things. MLPS came off Friday only a small fraction in the end which considering the market and the news backdrop was an excellent performance. Nat gas was up sharply and that may have leant a hand but crude was off over 3 bucks. The overall market looked like it was going to crack after the first selling wave but it held its own as the Dubai news took hold. Funny thing was that news hit the tape mid morning Wednesday but nobody seemed to pay attention until Europe sold off the next day.

Earnings news from Inergy LP and Inergy Holdings (NRGY,NRGP) and they are record earnings with 2010 guidance to be discussed this morning in a conference call. No other headlines this morning and nothing on the upgrade downgrade list. Stock futures were higher overnight, then turned lower and are now turning higher again. Crude is flat and nat gas is down about 17 cents after Fridays big gain of 35 cents. General feeling to me is Dubai right now is just another buying opportunity. Until the uptrend line is broken in this 2 up 1 down pattern we're in, there is no reason to change strategy. Last day of the month and then the last month of the year begins with its usually round of year end distortions. Looks like we will be opening a little higher.

Wednesday, November 25, 2009


I figured i would leave you a little early today as we will open higher and then probably spend the rest of the day going sideways as many head for the exits early. From the markets perspective we are at a much better place then we were a year ago...which is nice. Better is if you are in a better place personally then you were a year ago. Take time to give thanks. From my perspective a neighbor and longtime friend has seen her battle with stage 4 colon cancer come to an end.....WITH A CLEAN BILL OF HEALTH! CANCER FREE!! So good things are happening folks. Safe and Happy Thanksgiving to you and your family. I leave you with the great Charles Chaplin and this clip which i think says alot.!

Tuesday, November 24, 2009

MLPS are moving in their own world and rallying in here as we are up almost 2 points on the index and heading for that 265 wall. The overall market is a little lower and crude is lower. They seem to be leading the way for other energy which is consolidating from yesterday.

Kinder Morgan (KMP) Buckeye (BPL) and Williams Partners (WPZ) among the biggest fractional gainers this afternoon.

An interesting day.
Whoops...just noticed Morgan Keegan upgraded Kinder Morgan to outperform from market perform this morning and the stock is up fractionally. The company also updated its guidance.

Sorry guys but i had to run to pick my daughter up from college for Thanksgiving and its off to the dentist to get my teeth cleaned. In between checking into flat markets, flat mlps for the most part, no news and no upgrades or downgrades.

I will be back for some afternoon musings once my teeth are done! Its not this bad.

Monday, November 23, 2009

Its worth 18 cents to Constellation Energy Partners (CEP) unit holders but the President and CEO is doing some insider buying as per this filing.
The gain in mlp land has dwindled down to 1 points as the dow is up 120ish. Tape feels like it wants to weaken into the close.
Off the highs and in mlp land we we're up over 265 where we touched the high of the first thrust a few weeks ago and we've come off that. So lets watch 265 as an important point here. Im wondering whether we might be setting up for a short term reversal in here. Just a feeling.

Buckeye (BPL) Oneok (OKS) and Natural Resource Partners (NRP) lead a long list of fractional winners while TC Pipelines (TCLP) is down 75 cents. They are coming off last week's stock offering so there is some overhead supply there as there is for Nustar (NS) Holly Partners (HEP) and some others. Also we'er in light volume Thanksgiving mode.

Dow up 129 as of this post and off the up 170 from earlier.

Going back 1 year ago to the beginning of Thanksgiving week finds us only about 30 points higher on the mlp index. Thats because the final horror of the 145 low on the index did not occur for another couple of weeks. Everyone here should remember the abyss we sank into to reach that final climax bottom and it certainly was not physically or emotionally pleasant.

So here we sit a year later at 262 and some change. The market has been in rally mode since March. MLPS have been rallying for almost 11 months going back to last December. Lots to be happy about even if we arent exactly back to the promised land.

Im not expecting much to happen this week to our companies in the mlp universe. No news this morning and nothing on the upgrade downgrade list. Energy is up this morning as the dollar is down so it looks like another one of these strong Monday's is setting up pre open.

Friday, November 20, 2009


This was the chatter yesterday fueled by a Bloomberg story that ETP had approached Markwest (MWE) and Crosstex (XTEX) and got turned away and is now talking to Copano (CPNO). The discussion continues on the Yahoo board. Considering ETP has a stock with currency value as do some others; frankly i'm surprised we havent seen some marriages in the space. Perhaps thats coming in 2010.

Okay its Friday and the dow opens down a little. MLPS are down by a point on the index at the open. No news and no upgrades or downgrades in the group.

Thursday, November 19, 2009

Yahoo message board has rumours about Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) buying Copano (CPNO). Copano ran to 20 on the story.
Exterran Partners (EXLP) is up 40 cents and leads a short list of winners today as the mlp index is down 2 points with the dow down about 140. While most mlps are lower they are only frationally so and there are no 1 point plus losers as of this post. The only exception is DCP Midstream (DPM) which is doing a stock offerning. The market may be down but there appears to be no sense of urgency here. Just more of the same 2 up 1 down. Crude is down 2 dollars and nat gas is off a penny after inventory numbers for nat gas continue to move along in bearish fashion.

MLPS continue to hold up well in these selloffs. Lets see if buyers show up after 2pm, BTW for you nat gas lovers the makers of the UNG contract which continues to whither in the world of cantango is issuing a new ETF which is trading that tries a different approach. Thanks to Max for the heads up. The question is will it work?

When you look at the dow chart and see the pattern we've put in place for the past couple of months it seems we go up in the first half of the month and then pull back to the rising moving averages in the second half of the month. So a trip down to 10,000-10,100 is possible in this pattern which takes us back to support. The difference this month is that we do have the seasonal tail wind which could make things different.

MLPS on the other hand have not done much in this rally leg partly because of offerings and the ex-distribution distortions. We went above 265 yesterday and got turned back. 260 ish support is a days trade below us here so the theme here is we've got to watch this carefully. Speaking of which Steve mused the other day in the comments about where we were a year ago. Well here's my post from a year ago today.

Another stock offering hit the tape after the close last night as DCP Midstream (DPM) is selling some shares with the stonger stock price. Stock is down a buck and some change in the premarket. Regeny Partners (RGNC) is expanding its gas operations in Haynesville. Those are the 2 driving headlines this morning. Quiet on the upgrade downgrade list.

Stock futures are down this morning by 8 S&P points but off the low of minus 10. The dollar is a little higher and crude a little lower ahead of the open.

Wednesday, November 18, 2009

Always something to watch and crude hitting 80 bucks today and the sellers have arrived. Something to keep an eye on as we watch he paint dry. DCP Midstream (DPM) is up about dollar today for no apparent reason.
We're trading in a pretty tight range this morning in MLP land with mlps sitting in a zone between minus 30 cents and plus 30 cents and the mlp index pretty much unch. Energy numbers were bullish for crude which is around 80 bucks.

Lets see what happens later on.

Support lines are at 258 on the mlp index and 10,000 on the dow as the 2 steps foward one step back dance continues. Seasonal factors are strong here and we have options expiration which looks like it has a positive bias. So we start the morning higher ahead of cpi. Crude oil has a bit of a bid in it this morning as it nears 80 dollars again. Inventory numbers loom at 10:30am.

Nothing specific on the upgrade downgrade list. Just noticed HSBC is starting some of the major coal plays like Arch and Peabody at an overweight. No corporate headlines driving any individual mlps this morning. There was a renegade 4 point upside trade on Magellan Midstream (MMP) in after hours but that looks to be nothing other than some fool overpaying. No news there.

Sorry for the lack of posts. Worked a 22 hour day yesterday and was so overtired i could barely make it up the stairs last night. Back to normal today.

Monday, November 16, 2009

The dow is up 155 and over 10,400. MLPS are up 2.66 and at the highs for the day. We are above 264 and the high for this move is 266ish so we are at one of those critical areas here. Ignore the 270 on the chart as that came on the Teppco takeover by Enterprise (EPD) and there was some quote errors on the chart.

Sunoco Logistics (SXL) came alive today and leads the winners list up 1 and some change.Transmontaigne (TLP) is showing a 1 point gain as well. Plain All American (PAA) is up 70 cents as the third best performer so far today. Most mlps showing solid fractional gains. Just a few underwater and nothing being driven by news.

Everything is going up today. If you have noticed take a look at silver which is up over a dollar today. Havent seen moves like that since the Hunt Brother's tried to corner the market in 1980 when silver hit 50 bucks.
Im going to be linking to the website Oil Price dot com...and suggest strongly for all you energy watchers that you do the same. This looks to be a very valuable site for all things in the energy complex. Lots of journalism here and it seems to cover the lot.

Thought i would put up some 1 year charts just to see where we were just before Thanksgiving in 2008. Note that we were in the midst of a waterfall decline which bottomed on the MLP index at 145 and some change. I remember feeling doom at that point. That was the final bottom for mlps. The overall market however did not accomadate us for another 5 months when the dow went to new lows and just about everything else did not. Now here we are 70 or so percent up from those disastrous levels. And where will we be a year from now? Who knows? For now the dance continues higher with 2 steps foward one step back pattern. MLPS have not broken out to another new high but that could be resolved pretty easily. On the otherhand at this point we should keep an eye here in case we are at a point where the market will keep going while mlps start to lag other words the opposite of what evolved from this time last year. Not prediciting this yet but this 270 level on the mlp index is something we should watch.

Nothing on the news front and nothing on the upgrade downgrade front. It looks like the potential for another strong Monday at least here at the open with S&P futures up 10 points. Energy is up including nat gas. The dollar is down and gold is up. So everything is on autopilot until proven otherwise.

Friday, November 13, 2009


One positive thing about these equity offerings we're seeing is that they are coming from a position of strength for alot of mlps. Rising equity prices means a strong currency for them so they are using that to raise money. In normal times it has paid off to add to positions during such times as they then move to higher highs. Lets hope we continue on the road back to normal times. T C Pipelines becomes the latest to offer shares and the stock is down 2 dollars in the pre market.

MLPS behaved well yesterday as the market took 92 points of gas. Sometimes we play catch up to the primary trend the second day and energy is softer this morning. Energy stocks got hit pretty hard yesterday which makes the outperformance a bit more meaningful. Stocks look a little higher at the open. Its Friday and usually Fridays tend to be a little slower than other days. Crude is down and so is nat gas. Nothing much else going on. Dollar is nwo down agains the euro and pound so that might provide a driver if the dollar sells off.

TC Pipelines btw just now priced its offering at 38 dollars.

Thursday, November 12, 2009

MLPS holding up pretty well today partly because Nustar (NS) is up almost 50 cents so that is skewing the index higher. Its down roughly half a point and most mlps are seeing relatively small moves; this inspite of the fact that energy is falling and energy stocks are taking a hit today. So i guess a stronger dollar is attracting yield; at least that is the theme for today.

Dow down 90 plus points and near the lows of the day. No surprise after 7 straight up days.

The trade has been to buy the pullbacks into the moving averages and it has been incredibly successful since the March bottom. It seems we are in another one of those up legs. MLPS are distorted on the charts here thanks to the Teppco takeout, ex distributions, and so on but 265 is the level to watch on this move. MLPS have not broken out to a new rally high like the dow has and this is fine for now. I like to give things a few days to play out the wrinkles. But i think we need to pay attention here in case we are beginning to build some sort of trading top. Remember btw that MLPS are up from 176 to 260 on the index which is a 48 % gain and lets add 4 distributions to that and you have a total return running at around 55-60% or so. And that is well above the returns of other averages.

Suburban Propane (SPH) reported earnings this morning which were down and below estimates citing weak demand. One trade in the premarket down 2 plus but it was a panic seller letting go of 300 shares and the bid is above the last trade. Wunderlich is upgrading Transmontaigne (TLP) to buy from hold. It is also raising its price target on Kayne Anderson (KYN) which is an mlp fund.

Elsewhere stock futures are a touch softer. We have oil and nat gas down ahead of the open. Inventory numbers are out later this morning and that will drive the oil complex today. The open approacheth!!

Wednesday, November 11, 2009

Just a sideways kind of day with an upside bias. MLPs really not doing much in this holiday atmosphere. Fractional moves dictate the pace as we head into early afternoon. Markwest (MWE) is down 75 cents as it is still reeling a bit from its earnings report. Inergy Holdings (NRGP) leads the winners list up about 50 cents on the day. Its pretty much at all time highs.

Nice when a holiday falls in the middle of the week! So with banks closeed today we'll have perhaps more subdued activity with an upside bias. MLPS closed lower yesterday with the Nustar (NS) and Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) drag on the index.

No news and no upgrades or downgrades so far. Energy is higher this morning. Pancakes for breakfast. More later.

Tuesday, November 10, 2009

Nustar (NS) down 2.50 and Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) down pretty much make up the bulk of the mlp index's 1.50 pt loss right now. Small fractional moves are the character of the moves today. All this while the overall market continues to digest yesterday's 200 pt gain. Markwest Energy (MWE) is down 1.40 on earnings which might have been a touch light. Martin Midstream (MMLP) and Magellan (MMP) are up over 50 cents each as the 2 biggest gainers.

CNBC pushing the sucker's rally meme' which frankly is boring and repetative. Debate the obvious question and waste more time. Watch it with the volume turned down after Squawk Box is done at 9am.

Today will be known as distortion day as we have 2 big drags on the index. Nustar Energy (NS) announced a 5 million unit offering after the close yesterday so we're seeing a nearly 3 dollar loss in the pre-market.
This is a long term daily chart which looks like it is on the verge of a major breakout here above 57. Certainly the offering sets it back a bit but i would point out that buying the discounted price of offerrings lately has been a very good move. Take Holly Partners (HEP) which did an offering months ago with the stock at 27 and it ran to 40. Now its done another one. So if you believe in the longevitiy of the rally this 3 point loss today is probably a good entry point longer term.
Earnings may be the issue here as Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) put up its quarterly numbers last night. The stock is down 2.20 in the premarket. Not sure what traders are focusing on in here. The company reported a loss vs a forecast gain but there is so much noise in these numbers. Distributable cash flow we now is the metric by which we live. I was looking for the metric in the press release. All i could find was this paragraph.

(1) Based on the declared distribution rate of $0.89375 per Common Unit, distributions to be paid for the three months ended September 30, 2009, are $249.5 million in total, which exceeds net income for the period by $177.0 million. Accordingly, the distributions to be paid to the General Partner, including incentive distributions, further exceeded the net income for the three months ended September 30, 2009, and as a result, a net loss was allocated to the Limited Partners for the period.

Maybe that's where traders are looking but it still doesn't answer my question.

The upgrade downgrade list is empty so far this morning. Stock futures are just a shade lower ahead of the open. Small moves are the story this morning in all the relevant markets. The distribution cycle is just about over now as i think all mlps have gone ex-distribution. The checks will be arriving in a few days just in time for Christmas.

Monday, November 09, 2009

A nice 3 1/2 point gain on the mlp index as markets continue to soar. The dow is up 160 right now. Strong fractional plus signs across the board. Inergy Holdings (NRGP) is up 1.65 and is today's biggest winner. Buckeye Holdings (BGH) Nustar (NS) Oneok (OKS) Plains All American (PAA) all showing sizeable gains and lead the way higher. Buckeye (BPL) is losing about 30 cents as it is ex distribution today.

In case you missed it, the best race horse in the world wins the Breeders Cup Classic.

In pre market action Regency (RGNC) is down 70 cents on earnings. Buckeye Partners (BPL) is down 10 cents on going ex-distribution.

After Friday's reversal off the nasty employment numbers the market is waking up to sharply higher futures by almost 90 points on the industrials. So the question is are we on another upleg? The answer will come if we get above 10,200 on a closing basis so we will keep our eyes on that. MLPS bidding higher in the premarket.

We have some earnings this morning to chew through. E V Partners puts up its quarterly numbers which include a 30% production increase and some additional hedges going foward. Regency Partners in its earnings guides to lower end of guidance. Transmontaigne (TLP) earnings came a few pennies shy of estimates but that matters little in this group. And finally Quicksilver Gas (KGS) also announces quarterly results. No moves in the premarket on these issues.

Other markets this morning we have crude higher and nat gas lower. Overseas markets are doing well. The dollar is falling and gold has broken out above 1100 bucks. So we should be moving right along, higher at the open.

Note that the library of links continues to grow as I continue to list mlp web sites on the blog roll. This should make it easier for you if you want to investigate an mlp for future investment by saving you a few steps and a trip to google. Should have them all on there before too long.

Friday, November 06, 2009

Nustar (NS) CEO is on CNBC sometime between 9am and 11 am this morning.
Spectra Energy earnings have hit the wires. So has the employment number which was not pretty. Looks like a down open.

First off sorry for no posts yesterday but i had my hands full at work and suddenly the time slipped away. 200 dow points and nearly 3 points on the mlp index was nice. Charts are suggesting we could break out today on the dow assuming the employment numbers behave. Lost of talk of a head and shoulders top forming on the daily chart of the dow but we had that talk 2 months ago and that was about 1000 points ago.

News this morning from Crosstex (XTEX) as they post earnings and they say they are pleased with the progress of paying down debt. No sign of a distribution returning anytime soon for Constellation Energy (CEP) as they put up numbers they call solid. DCP Midstream (DPM) put their earnings up last night after the close. Spectra Energy Partners (SEP) are due out this morning.

Stock futures are up a little head of the employment numbers while energy is a little lower. The dollar gets attention today and its a little higher against the euro ahead of the open. The scope of yesterday's move leads one the suspect someone got wind of the employment number but we wont go down that particular road.

Wednesday, November 04, 2009


Markets are in rally mode and rally mood this morning as futures on the S&P are up over 8 points. Fed meeting and announcement at 2:15pm and everyone will be disecting the press release for any clues. 9700 is holding quite well and we may see the markets begin to move away from this short term bottom. Still no sign of a top.

The ex distribution cycle continues this morning with Sunoco Logistics (SXL) among others trading sans dis. Earnings news also on the frontline this morning with Linn Energy (LINE) putting up numbers and the stock looks a little lower at the open. Also we have earnings from El Paso Partners (EPB). Targa Natural Resources (NGLS) earnings news with some guidance and Calumet Specialty Products (CLMT) tells us in their earnings that they are good with their covenants.

Crude is higher, nat gas lower this morning and we have commodities moving higher this morning with gold knocking on the door at 1100. Here comes the open and what looks like a strong start.

Just a reminder i continue to add links to mlps on the blog roll for your mlp shopping convienence. And also i would like to point you to this blog posted by one of our members here. AVI gives us his market perspective and its always good to get ideas from others. Its also on the blogroll.

Tuesday, November 03, 2009


I was wondering just yesterday when this was coming and sure enough they announced yesterday after the close. Holly Energy Partners (HEP) is doing another offering. Its the second one this year; 1.9 million units coming to market. The stock is down over 2 bucks before the open. Last time they did an offering the stock was around 27 and since then we've seen it run to 41. The bull trend means this could be an opportunity. Usually stock offerings tend to make the particular mlp and underperformer for a week or so.

Ex distributions continue. This morning its Nustar (NS) by over a buck. We still have a few more to get through but the bulk should be done by the end of the week. Not much else on the news front this morning. No upgrades or downgrades so far. The dollar is stronger and that means lower oil and lower stocks but we have this big Buffett deal buying Burlington Northern (BNI) at a huge premium to yesterday's close. So the open looks soft but there might be a firm undertone not much lower than here.

Monday, November 02, 2009

Notice on the weekly chart that a trip down to 235-240 would take us to where all those moving averages are crossing. Not out of the question and it still means we can be bullish longer term; as long as that level holds.

The index is now down 2 points and the dow is down 20. Not looking pretty for the last hour. Also note some large cap mlps have not gone ex distribution yet and that is probably holding some mlps up in price like Nustar and Sunoco Logistics just to name 2.
Volitlity rearing its ugly head right now and the dow has gone from plus 140 to down 2 right now. MLPS were up over 2 on the index and are now barely higher. Watching the tape today you can feel the push and pull in both directions so the close today is important.

Williams Partners (WPZ) and Martin Midstream (MMLP) were both up one or more earlier but have since pulled back. They remain up major fractions. Capital Products Partners(CPLP) got downgrade this morning by Deutche Bank to hold from buy as Deutche is predicting a distribution cut.

While i type this post the mlp index has just gone negative but the dow has turned positive again. The volitility index on the S&P has turned higher and is back up over 30. Enjoy the rollercoaster.
Buckeye Partners (BPL) is out with earnings and a distribution increase.

Some isolated premarket trades in E V Partners (EVEP) down 2 and Plains All American (PAA) down 1 but no news drivers and i dont see them on any downgrade list. At least not yet.

Monday morning in a new month and its Novemeber which usually begins a seasonally strong period. Now notice that even after Friday's big sell off we have not taken out any important support in my view and the uptrend line of those rising moving averages remains intact for both the dow and the mlp index. So really the jury is still out on what is really happening here. Friday was the last day of the year for mutual funds so you can imagine a number of fund managers running to the sell window all at the same time.

Buckeye Partners (BPL) and Buckeye Holdings (BGH) are set to report earnings this morning around 8am No other headlines on the wire this morning. Nothing yet on the upgrade downgrade list. The round of ex-distributions continue this week along with addtional earnings news so we post headlines as they cross. Stock futures are higher this morning ahead of the open as is the energy complex.