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Tuesday, November 10, 2009

2 BIG DRAGS ON THE MLP INDEX TODAY!



Today will be known as distortion day as we have 2 big drags on the index. Nustar Energy (NS) announced a 5 million unit offering after the close yesterday so we're seeing a nearly 3 dollar loss in the pre-market.
This is a long term daily chart which looks like it is on the verge of a major breakout here above 57. Certainly the offering sets it back a bit but i would point out that buying the discounted price of offerrings lately has been a very good move. Take Holly Partners (HEP) which did an offering months ago with the stock at 27 and it ran to 40. Now its done another one. So if you believe in the longevitiy of the rally this 3 point loss today is probably a good entry point longer term.
Earnings may be the issue here as Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) put up its quarterly numbers last night. The stock is down 2.20 in the premarket. Not sure what traders are focusing on in here. The company reported a loss vs a forecast gain but there is so much noise in these numbers. Distributable cash flow we now is the metric by which we live. I was looking for the metric in the press release. All i could find was this paragraph.

(1) Based on the declared distribution rate of $0.89375 per Common Unit, distributions to be paid for the three months ended September 30, 2009, are $249.5 million in total, which exceeds net income for the period by $177.0 million. Accordingly, the distributions to be paid to the General Partner, including incentive distributions, further exceeded the net income for the three months ended September 30, 2009, and as a result, a net loss was allocated to the Limited Partners for the period.


Maybe that's where traders are looking but it still doesn't answer my question.

The upgrade downgrade list is empty so far this morning. Stock futures are just a shade lower ahead of the open. Small moves are the story this morning in all the relevant markets. The distribution cycle is just about over now as i think all mlps have gone ex-distribution. The checks will be arriving in a few days just in time for Christmas.

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