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Wednesday, April 30, 2008

The mlp index finished up about 1 point when it was all said and done and it outperformed the dow and the s&p. So its where they finish kids that counts.

Holly Partners (HEP) climbed 1 and a few pennies and Hiland (HLND) was also a 1 point winner. Penn Virginia Holdings (PVG) Natural Resource Partners (NRP) Enterprise (EPD) Markwest (MWE) and Buckeye Holdings (BGH) had some nice fractional gains.

Losers include Crosstex (XTEX) and Martin Midstream (MMLP) which were down 1 but big chunks of that were ex-distribtuion. Sometimes nasdaq does not correct for ex distributions on the change in price. Plains All American (PAA) was down 75 cents but they posted good earnigns after the close; beat estimates by 3 cents. Oneok LP (OKS) was down 55 cents and they too posted earnings after thc close.

Fed days are always a mess in trying to trade them. Too much volitility and hard to peg which way. After the close gold, oil and other commodities sold off again. Should be an interesting day tomorrow...actually except for maybe the day after Thanks giving they are all interesting days.

Thought it would be a good idea to take a look at some of the charts at this point that are relevant here. We will start of course with the one that looks the worst and that guessed it...the AMZ MLP INDEX chart.

We continue to base build here and its at least somewhat encouraging that the index seems to be holding the 290 level which was old support before February and March did their damage. We still have not seen the moving averages cross to where the 34 is above the 89 day. But we are trying. Sentiment as measured by the posts on this board is hideous to the point of anger. We regard that as bullish.

The dow industrials chart has repaired itself quite nicely as it has built a bottom to rally off. And the moving averages are crossing and sloped positive. I am expecting the fed to do 1/4 and signal a pause. There could be a good rally off of this announcement particularly if the dollar rallies and commodities sell off on the news.

The XOI Oil index chart is a bit odd. Its been moving sideways for the last several months in a wide range and while it could be viewed as a triple top developing i'm not sold on this yet. Certainly if crude sells off we could see a trip back down to the bottom of the trading range.

Best for last is the gas index chart (XNG) which is been on a bull move with the occasional pullback and i think a selloff into the moving averages is about the worst we'll see on this one and that might be where mlps derive their support should a broader energy down move develope in the short term.

Okay now to some morning news items. Kinder Morgan Partners (KMP) is testing moving ethanol through a pipeline. There are issues doing it this way and Kinder may have a solution. So they have a vested interest in keeping Ethanol alive if it is successful. Sunoco Logistics (SXL) is buying a refinery and pipeline which will immediately add to the distribution.

Lehman is commenting on Constellation Energy Partners (CEP) by keeping it at "overweight" but knocking the target down from 30 to 25. Who cares when this one just keeps going down anyway. I think they better be clear on earnings day about what is going on in order to put a floor here and rally it back into the 20s.

Nothing else on the agenda this morning so we await the open and the fed. Crude is a little higher on a dead cat bounce. Stock futures stronger on GDP data.

Tuesday, April 29, 2008

Like watching paint dry today. Some movers like Atlas Pipeline Partners (APL) which is up 1 on no news and the two Hilands (HLND,HPGP) are down 1 on no news. The mlp index is down all of 0.19. All this pre fed action. Oil is down 3 dollars and nat gas is down nearly 50 cents. Its not having a big impact however on the bigger energy stocks for the most part.

No surprise here as E V Partners (EVEP) goes to 62 cents on the distribution up from 60 cents as they told us before. But they are also telling us now they will boost again next quarter. Also this morning we have earnings news from Teppco (TPP) which look solid. This pretty much has been the story for the whole group with a few excecptions like Calumet (CLMT) and Cheniere (CQP). And they yields continue to remain high on a long term basis and yield spreads have only dropped slightly. So we continue to mount a very slow repair job.

Crude oil is selling off by about 1 dollar as supply concerns decline and dollar rally is putting pressure on prices. Nat gas is selling off as it corrects from a big up move yesterday when we got to an 11 handle. The dollar as we said is stronger against all major currencies as the fed meeting begins today with a decision due out tomorrow. So it may be appointment only trading until then.

Headlines as they break this morning.

Monday, April 28, 2008

One of the funniest things i've ever read...and proof that politicans especially democrats have complete and utter comtempt for the intelligence of most Americans.

No where in this manifesto do we say anything about ending the immoral ethanol supports that are converting food for fuel.
Interesting day. A firm undertone under mlps for the most part. The index is up .65 as of this post. Alliance Resource (ARLP), Alliance Resource Holdings (AHGP) Hiland Partners (HLND) and Atlas Holdings (AHD) all up about 1 point or in some cases more. Most other mlps are flat to up small fractions.

Not many on the losing side and nothing major. Market overall wants to go higher and 13000 on the dow looms on the horizon.

Well if you haven't sold yet you have lived to collect another distribution as a bunch of mlps go ex distribution today. Usually its the big boys that go first like Oneok (OKS). The mlp index last week closed not too far off the high for the week.

And there is some pre market reaction to earning as Enterprise (EPD) posts quarterly numbers that the early market traders liked. The stock is bidding up nearly 2 dollars in the pre market. Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP) also posts good numbers on earnings. Boardwalk (BWP) puts up earnings which include a 1 time gain. For some reason this morning none of the links to the news stories are available on Yahoo finance. Lovely isn't it.

No upgrades or downgrades this morning. Crude has just turned lower as stock futures have turned flat. Nat gas is a little higher.

Putting the chart of Eagle Rock (EROC) up this morning as it looks like not only the bottom is but there is room to rally here. Stock price looks like it wants to go higher.

Maybe we can get back to 20 one of these days.

Friday, April 25, 2008


After the close yesterday a number of mlps announced distribution increases including this surprise from Boardwalk Partners (BWP) which boosted the payout inspite of its previously announced cost overrunns. We also have Magellan Midstream Partners raising the payout along with Magellan Holdings (MGG). Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) and Energy Transfer Equity (ETE) are lifting payouts and i love ETP's rate of .86875 cents. Talk about precision...86 and 7/8ths cents! Sempra Energy Partners (SEP) is increasing its payout as well.

I mentioned earlier this week that we need to watch any drop in crude oil as that will take energy stocks down hard and could pull us down with them. It is sad since MLPS were left completely behind in the energy stock rally and were sold off hard during the credit mess. Now we run the risk of being taken down for a run-up we never really enjoyed. But not to worry because the chairman of Nustar (NS) says crude oil will never drop in price again and the sky is the limit for the price. I still think we hit some short term top at 120 and could pull back pretty hard....maybe back below 110 or 105 in a hurry. But then again...who knows.

Early post this morning as i am working. Stock futures are higher going into the pre-market. Crude oil traded down to 114 yesterday..down 3.60 at one point before closing just over 116. Its down about 50 cents this morning in electronic trading. Gasoline is down a nickel as is nat gas. 2 year note yields continue to rise which is an indicator of an increasing appetite for risk. the dollar continues a very strong rally against the Euro. All good things. The MLP index managed to close above 290...down 1.50 ish on the day. Remember we just ran from 262 to 294 in a hurry so the pullback while annoying was not overally damaging. Still judging by the number of angry bearish posts i can't help but be optimistic. Then again that is my nature.

Working this morning so i will try and post headlines as they break.

Thursday, April 24, 2008

Of course with energy stocks gettinng hammered...mlps are now going to stocks! The mlp index is down nearly 3 points or 1%. The XOI index is down over 2 1/2%. Glory!

Calumet is down 3 and change and under 15 bucks on the distribution castration. Nustar (NS) is down 1 and change on the Morgan Stanley castration. Constellation (CEP) is down 75 cents to just above 17 because all this stock ever does is go down anyway. Coal MLPS Natural Resource (NRP) and Alliance Resource (ARLP) are both down 1 each. Magellan Midstream (MMP) is down another dollar. And of course a mile long list of fractional losers.

You can sense a certain degree of frustration here but its how they finish the day. I'm not hopeful but one never knows.
Morgan Stanley is cutting Nustar (NS) to underweight and starting Markwest (MWE) at overweight.
Nothing on the upgrade downgrade list. Constellation Partners (CEP) announces its distribution and as expected no change...but no cut!

Calumet Specialty Products (CLMT) seeing a few trades in the pre-market. Last down 1.35 at 16.99 on its 27% distribution cut. Earnings from TC Pipelines (TCLP) are out and the company calls them strong.

I took a long position in DUG on the idea that oil is about to break for a quick big correction. We'll see.

I think it was. It was screaming distribution cut. And last night Calumet Specialty Products (CLMT) did just that going from 63 to 46 cents. The company has been under tremendous pressure as rising oil prices have just squeezed this one to death.
Now there just may be a trade here as if the distribution cut has been priced in...and thats a big if....we could see this one at least stop going down especially if the oil price ever breaks...which we know that is just something that will never happen!

Meanwhile here is the Eagle Rock Energy Partners chart which is doing better although the moving averages are still in negative mode. The 34 day is beginning to slope positively so at least the repair job continues.

Linn Energy (LINE) has actually formed a pretty nice "W" bottom in here so maybe we can remove this one from the most hated mlp list. 24 has been a wall in here so we need to get through it on volume to put the bottom behind us.
Of course there is Constellation Partners (CEP) aka miserable piece of shit...according to some posters. I'm inclined to agree. 50 to 15..a bounce to 21 and now back to 17 so we are in some sort of bottoming process. I would hate to have to go back down to the 15 area. I thought there was some sort of head and shoulders bottom forming in here but that neckline is looking pretty dicey so it needs to turn higher and get back above 19 and stay there.
The company has already announced no distribution increase for the quarter...but at least they are not cutting. Very agonizing.

Hey here is some good news from Legacy Partners (LGCY) which is doing a nice 4 cent boost in the distribution.

BTW even with distribution increases we are not seeing yields spreads not dropping very much. The majors in the group continue to average a 7% yield while some of the newer growers have now gravitated to a 9-11% yield. This seems like the new norm with 300-400 basis point spreads to the 10 year.

Headlines as they break this morning. At this early hour stock futures are softer. Crude is off a few ticks. Gold is trying to hold 900. One by one commodities seem to be breaking a bit in here so i would not be surprised if we see a big drop in oil very soon. BTW if a sell off in oil is coming and oil stocks get sold; a good way to play it might be with the Power shares short oil and gas (DUG). Not a recommendation here but it is among the many tools out there where one can hedge with when times get a little volitile.

And now...a little wake up music

Wednesday, April 23, 2008

Here is something that doesn't happen very often. In fact except for Stargas this is the only other time that this is happened. Calumet Specialty Products (CLMT) is cutting its distribution from 63 to 45 cents. Brings it down to a 10% yield. Stock price behavior was telling us a cut was at hand. Sad times due to high crude oil prices.
Constellation Energy Partners (CEP) has fallen back into a sink hole. Its sort watching someone trying to climb a rope covered in oil. Its down to 17.60 and has given back about 1/2 of its recovery. At least Linn Energy (LINE) has held its bounce back to around 23.

MLPS as a whole not doing too much. The index is flat but there are some big movers out there. Cheniere LP (CQP) is up another 1.23 and leads the list of winners. Sunoco Logistics (SXL) is up nearly 1 on earnings.

1 point losers include Atlas Pipeline (APL) and Hiland LP (HLND) although that one is on thin volume and could easily close up later today. Fractional losers; Magellan (MMP) on the Goldman downgrade, Crosstex (XTEX) DCP Midstream (DPM) and a few others.
Some info on the Goldman downgrade of Magellan(MMP). Thank you to the poster. After reading it through you gotta love Goldman and anal-ist double speak. On the one hand they say its overvalued relative to its peers...on the other hand they leave the price target at $44 which is above where it is right now. Makes sense...doesn't it!

Inergy Holdings (NRGP) leads the way with distribution hikes this morning making it 11 in a row. Inergy LP meanwhile makes it 26 consecutive quarters (6 1/2 yrs) of distribution hikes. Also scroll down and check last nights posts about other earnings and distribution increases. Targa Resources (NGLS) also takes its distribution higher for the quarter. More news headlines as they break.

Meanwhile Goldman Sachs is on the horn this morning as they downgrade Magellan Midstream Partners (MMP) to a sell which is something you don't see too often. They had it as a hold. The chart above shows MMP has been a pretty good relative performer and its been in a trading range between 38 and 45 for the last year or so. If i get the reasons behind the downgrade i will post. Or if any of you find out please post it in the comments section.

Earnings driving the overall market this morning. Crude is down 63 cents (which is against all natural law). Nat gas is a little lower. Stock futures a little lower.

Tuesday, April 22, 2008

Crosstex boosts its distribution on the LP and on the GP.....big time on the GP. Also when the head of your company dumps a whole shitload of can't be a good sign.

Martin Midstream also announces a distribution boost.
A couple of notes. First off Nustar Holdings (NSH) did not increase the distribution..i mis-read. They were referencing a year ago. Thanks to the poster for bringing that to my attention.

Another poster wants us to shout from the rooftops that Atlas Holdings made a big distribution i am...however the market may have already somewhat priced it in. Stock was up 37 cents on the news.

After the close Sunoco Logistics posted earnings and a distribution increase after the close. Numbers look very good here.

Calumet Specialty (CLMT) closed down 2.58 to an all time low of 17.96 as the unrelenting rise in crude oil prices continues to squeeze the shit of out this one. No specific news. Volume was 344k which was almost 5 times normal.

Chenere (LNG) and the MLP (CQP) were both up smartly today as they rebound from unrelenting selling over the last few weeks. No specific news here.

The mlp index closed up just under 1 point on a down market day again...relative out performance continues.
Calumet Specialty Products (which i sold in the 50s) is down nearly 2 points and with an 18 handle. No news on 70k shares. I'm not sure what is going on here. Atlas Energy Resources (ATN) boosts its distribution by 2 cents.

Dead cat bounces in Cheniere LNG (CPQ,LNG) which are both up a buck right now. Otherwise the mlp index is up 1 point and off its highs as Nustar (NS) gives the index a boost up 1.52.

Otherwise its a snooze fest.
Nustar (NS) and Nustar Holdings(NSH) put out earnings this morning and they look very good. That's one thing thats been lost in the last couple of months. Earnings for most mlps should be very good. Nustar beat earnings estimates by 27 cents! Nustar Holdings (NSH) also announces a distribution increase.

For sure with some of the beatings some of us have taken over these past many months nothing i believe beats Cheniere (LNG) and its MLP (CQP).

Cheniere is having all sorts of problems..has just laid off half its staff. The market for liquified nat gas hasn't exactly panned out according to plan. They finally opened there Sabine Pass terminal yesterday. The MLP has announced already that it will pay its distribution.
So if you believe the company survives you are getting a huge yield here. But the risk is that this will be the last distribution. Meanwhile last years most hated MLP which i believe goes to US Shipping (USS) looks like it is trying to bottom in here. They have done what they need to do to keep paying a distribution but again...there is is risk here.

So tread carefully among the walking dead in here.

The MLP index continues to move higher and is starting the day just under 292. This morning we have no headlines so far and no upgrades or downgrades but i suspect more distribution announces coming as the week moves along. Stock futures are flat to a little higher. Crude Oil just doesn't go down anymore is sitting just under 118. Nat gas is a little higher this morning.

One final note. One of these days Crude oil is going to go down. And if we ever get the sizeable correction crude a $10 down day for example, we could get a violent reaction among energy stocks. And if that happens it could be one of those days where mlps get taken out and shot with everything else energy. But that day it appears is not today. But i just want us to keep this in the back of our minds over the next several weeks; even though we all know that crude oil just never ever goes down anymore.

Monday, April 21, 2008

Overall MLPS doing ok today. The index is near 292 and just off the highs of the day while the overall market is a little lower but not by much. Most mlps up fractionally but Natural Resource Partners (NRP) is the big winner today up 1 and change. Atlas Resource (ATN) is up nearly 1 point.

Atlas Pipeline (APL) has some big seller today dumping some shares; down 50 cents. Cheniere (LNG) is down 80 cents and there a bunch of mlps down 50 cents or less.

The MLP index continues its recovery and Friday we closed above 290. No news and no upgrades or downgrades this morning but look for more earnings and distribution increases this week.
Not much else to say pre-open as Crude was over 117 but is now back under it. Stock futures a little lower but nothing tragic.

Friday, April 18, 2008

Transmontaigne (TLP) boosted their distribution by a nickle and the stock is up over 1 point. It joins an expanding list of one point winners which now even includes Cheneire LNG (CQP) which has been hit hard over the last few days.

MLP index is now moving higher and playing catch up. It is nearing 290 and up almost 2 points as we head into the last hour.
It took awhile for MLPS to wake up but they are out of bed now. After opening down about 1 point the index is now up 1.25 and in fact most mlps are higher; just some of the big caps earlier were dragging the index down.

Hiland (HLND) is up 2 and Hiland Holdings (HPGP) is up just under 2. Atlas Holdings (AHD)and Suburban Propane(SPH) up 1 plus. And we have a fairly lengthy list of fractional winners.

Not many mlps down. The losers list is showing losses of 25 cents or less. Atlas Resources (ATN) is down just under 2 points as the one standout loser but that one has rallied from 31 to 44 in the last couple of weeks.

Looks like the dow will be breaking out of this base today with futures up 21 points on the S&P. Everything this morning is working so MLPS, which have been keeping up nicely with the overall market lately should see a corresponding big move today.

News left from last night. Plains All American (PAA) nudges the distribution higher and also adjusts distribution guidance going foward. TC Pipeline (TCLP) gives holders a nice distribution boost. Atlas Resource (ATN) took advantage of higher prices by doing a small public offering of shares but then said its withdrawing its offering of class B shares.

No other headlines this morning and no upgrades or downgrades. So fasten seatbelts and get ready for a blastoff.

Thursday, April 17, 2008

Linn Energy back to 23.

All in my never to be humble opinion of course

1. Cheniere LNG (CQP)
2. Constellation Energy Partners (CEP)
3. Linn Energy (LINE)
4. Calumet Specialty Products (CLMT)
5. tie US Shipping (USS), Breitburn (BBEP)


1. Atlas Energy Resource (ATN)
2. Kinder Morgan Partners (KMP
3. Oneok LP (OKS)

Of course a lot depends on where you buy em and where you sell em. Calumet i think has really suffered as refiners of any kind are just getting squeezed to death with 115 dollar oil. If oil prices ever come down (and we know that is just against the laws of physics); this one might finally stop falling.

Notice the love list is very short. More would be on it before the mid March ball squeeze!

MLP index back up 32 cents nearing 288. Market feels pretty good in here.
Cheniere LNG (CQP) is down nearly 3 bucks today to 10 dollars as it has some major difficulties ahead according to this post on the yahoo board.

Linn dropped to 22.54 but is back to 22.80.
Doesn't look like they're saying much at the Linn Anal-ist meeting today. The stock is down 1 dollar at this point on nearly 400k of volume. Not sure whats going on...if anything. Maybe it is buy the rumour sell the news trading. I'm not sure. Maybe its a prospect of no distribution increase...which if that is the case...makes this dead money until next quarter. Constellation (CEP) is in the same boat and thats why its stuck in the mid 18's with a 12%+ yield.

The mlp index is down about 24 cents so far...had been up about 1 point earlier. Looks like consolidation and Kinder Morgan (KMP) is goosing the index by 62 cents to the upside. Atlas Resource (ATN) is down 1 as it corrects from its big run-up. Fractional losers include Alliance Resource (ARLP) DCP Midstream (DPM),Energy Transfer Equity (ETE), Teekay LNG (TGP) among others.

Martin Midstream (MMLP) is a fractional winner, Holly Partners (HEP) Buckeye (BPL), Teppco (TPP) and Williams (WPZ).

Beautiful day here in NYC...70s today with sunshine.

The repair job continues and this morning we have a boost from Kinder Morgan (KMP) as posted last night with great earnings and a nice 4 cent distribution hike. Stock is bid higher pre-open. And for Linn Energy (LINE) today is "anal" ist day so we'll see if they have anything earth shattering to say with regards to their asset sale to XTO and its impact on the company and the distribution going foward.

Yesterday we had a nice 3 point gain on a nice move on the dow +250. 290 is where the old base was before the March breakdown so i'm looking for another shot to get back there.

The action is certainly encouraging.

No headlines this morning and no upgrades or downgrades so far.

Wednesday, April 16, 2008

Kinder Morgan Partners (KMP continues to hit the cover off the ball..Record earnigns and a 4 cent distribution increase. Stock is bid up nearly 1 dollar after the close.

Copano boosts the distribution by 2 cents. Teekay LNG Partners (TGP) announces a 5 million share offering. Stock traded a few shares after the close down 45 cents.

The mlp index closed up 3.36 and at the high of the day at 287.70. Earnings after the close setting us up for another up day tomorrow in the overall market. Look for an assault on 290 especially if the dow challenges 12750 successfully.
Can you guess the answer? Which MLP has now increased its distribution for 19 consecutive quarters? The answer is?
The seeds were planted for a strong day yesterday when they couldn't take em down any more and we closed at the high for the day. MLPs are higher. The index is up over 2 points and over 286. Just about everything is up except for a few losing a couple of pennies here and there.

Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP) and Plains All American (PAA) up 1 or more. And we have a pretty long list of fractional winners.

That if will be the cpi numbers due out at 8:30am. A hot number is probably baked into the cake particularly since Euro cpi overnight was a hot number and the dollar is being flushed down the toilet this morning. Nonetheless earnings have been very good so if we can get by cpi we may see some nice upside.

Meanwhile for all you hostile bears on the board are some charts showing the mlp index relative performace vs the S&P over 5 day, 3, and 6 months.

Notice the 3 month period which includes March shows just how nasty it got for this group when Bear Stearns hit and the Lehman rumous were running...and we were getting our you know whats squeezed in a vice.
And over 6 months were are outperforming the S&P which is a good thing.
Now i know some of you will see the index doesn't show the full impact as some mlps are down much more than everything else and i understand that. Maybe the lesson here is your mlp mix needs to be across the spectrum from the big boys to the speculative as well as the liquidity question which is important especially when selling. You have to sell but who are you going to sell to?
The MLP index is trying to push itself back to 290 as we are hopefully basebuilding and not topping out in an overall downtrend. Meanwhile here is the chart of Atlas Resources (ATN) which is just soaring...another 2 points yesterday. Don't you wish you bought in the mid 20s. And if you did...aren't you a happy camper!
Now i own this one..Penn Virginia Holdings (PVG) which looks like its building a nice base with an head and shoulders bottom formation. Needs to close above 29 with volume to confirm a breakout. I trade this one as well as hold shares for the long haul.

Okay news from last night as Buckeye's(BPL) deal with Inergy LP (NRGY)closes. Also we have a distribution increase from Oneok LP (OKS)to 1.04 from 1.0250. This morning Morgan Stanley upgrades Plains All American (PAA) to overweight from equal weight.

No other headlines so far. Oil at 114 and rising. Nat gas over 10 bucks and up this morning as well. Stock futures continue to strengthen...which of course could all get undone at 8:30am. But if we get by that...i think we could see some very good upside.

Tuesday, April 15, 2008

Oil is just under 114. Amazing isn't it. It just never goes down.

MLPs doing okay today for the most part. The index is up 1 and small change. Martin Midstream (MMLP) joins the list of 1 point winners. Atlas Resource (ATN) is up nearly 2 dollars now at just under 43...up 13 points since the Cramer goose on Mad Money a few weeks ago.

Nustar Holdings (NSH) is down 1 as gasoline refiners under some pressure with oil so high.
Tax question on the board. Scroll down to find it. Please post if you know the answer.
I have to say that based on the comments lately the sentiment on this board has gone from negative to desperate to hostile. Must be a good sign.

Meanwhile the MLP index is up almost 1 point on a day where the overall market is not doing much of anything at least so far. As predicted this morning Linn Energy (LINE) is down 40 cents on its sale of assets to XTO Energy which itself is only up 3 cents. Alliance Resource (ARLP) is up 1.50 and Atlas Resource (ATN) is up 1 and change. Holly Partners (HEP) Nustar Holdings (NSH) and Penn Virginia Holdings (PVG) are down major fractions as the biggest loser.

Get your taxes all done boys and girls as midnight looms large!
Down 11 cents on Linn after an up the rumour sell the news...but the day is young.
Distribution news from big boy Enterprise(EPD) which hikes the payout...again. Duncan Partners (DEP) also is announcing its distribution.

Gotta feeling Linn may be down today on the news. But i could be wrong.
Linn 23.70 x 24
Linn just traded 1000 shares @ 24 up 20 cents from the close yesterday.

I guess they decided to maximize value on the Marcellus shale assets while the going is hot as the company is selling them to XTO Energy for $600 million. Linn says it will use the money to reduce debt and should have no impact on distributable cash flow. XTO is bidding 64.50 x 65.95 right now...a few trades at 64.75. Linn Energy is 23.65 x 24.53. No trades yet. Judging by the chart you think somebody knew something?

I'm not so sure that this will be viewed in a good light but we'll see. Did they sell because they had to or was it a strategic decision that it was better to cut down debt and not issue any new equity as outlined in previous conference calls. Analyst day on Thursday.

E V Partners (EVEP) announced a smaller 18 million dollar deal as they are purchasing some wells in Texas.

No other news and no upgrades or downgrades so far. The MLP index close up over 1 point yesterday and continues to show relative outperformance to the overall market. I would expect that trend to continue. Need to clear 290 short term.

Monday, April 14, 2008


The Linn Energy(LINE) chart below. It looks like a breakout but lets wait for the close to tell us more.

Mlps displaying a firm tone today with the index up over a point while the market tugs back and forth. No downside followthrough today at least so far. A number of fractional gains in the group in most of the recognizable names.
Good news for Teppco (TPP) unit holders as they are getting at 1.5 cent increase in the distribution. This is especially important as Teppco has done so little for so long on the distribution front. Look for this one to move on the news.

Over the weekend i had to see an accountant. I've been doing my own taxes for years but i ran into something i couldn't handle regarding a lawsuit and a business i sold. When the accountant saw my past returns he was absolutely blown away. He was especially impressed with the K-1's from MLPS and oil depletion allowances and all the other technicallities that aries with this stuff. I told him it was turbo tax and i just plug in the numbers. He practically offered me a job! So those of you out there who do your own taxes...i share this compliment with you. You have accountants who want to worship you!

Okay its Monday morning and it looked like the market was going to open flat until we heard from Wachovia (WB) so the tone of the tape at the open will be down. I guess MLPS will follow along at least at the open. Its a quiet morning with no news and no upgrades or downgrades.

Finalizing all my taxes this morning so i will be running around this morning. I will post again later this morning as things get underway.

Friday, April 11, 2008

Its all GE all the time today and that is dominating everything. Dow down 240. MLP down 2 and change. At least the Lehman victims of last quarter like Linn, Constellation, Eagle Rock, EV Partners are flat to higher today along with a couple of others. The Atlas group is higher...Atlas Resource +1.21. Atlas Holdings (AHD) +.20 and Atlas Pipeline (APL) +.02. Atlas America (ATLS) is +3.39 on a Freidman Billings upgrade.

Holly Partners (HEP) and DCP Midstream (DPM) are down 1. Energy Transfer (ETP is down 80 cents even though JP Morgan starts coverage with an outperform. Most MLPS showing fractional losses.

The mood on the comments today is pessimistic...almost to the point of disgust.

Is it possible? Does Linn Energy's chart look like we are about to emerge from a base? Stock is over 23 right now and up 55 cents! Its more fun this way.
Getting ugly out there after the GE miss. It will be interesting to see what the overall market does in the face of this.

No other headlines in our space and no upgrades or downgrades.

Back to anybody really surprised at this in leiu of what happened in March and how everything financial was hit over the head with a club?
Oh well...GE earnings were not good. Futures selling off.

Freidman Billings is raising its target on Atlas Energy Resources (ATN) to 54 dollars from 40 bucks. This one has been an outstanding performer this year....among few outstanding performers in the mlp space.

I don't know. Maybe because its the end of the week. Maybe its the spring horse racing at Keeneland as head for the derby. Maybe its the fact that i'm almost done with my taxes. Maybe its the market's firmer tone. Maybe its the fact that MLPS are acting a little better. Or all of the above. I don't know but i'm in a good mood.

This is an early post as i am working early this morning. I will add to this as the morning wears on but stock futures are stronger ahead of GE's earnings.

Thursday, April 10, 2008

The big mlps in the MLP index are down harder then most other mlps and as the result we're seeing the index down over 2 points and just off the lows at 285 and some change. The overall market is rallying as 1350 S&P and Dow 12500 held yesterday and again this morning. Oil is selling off 1 dollar so it looks like we could see an attempt to breakout above 12750 on the down in the next few days. Rally mode is good for MLPS in my view.

Atlas Resource peeked over 40 where it peaked today; though it is still up 1 at 39.60 and leads the list of winners. Enbridge Energy Partners (EEP) Kinder Morgan (KMP) Plains All American (PAA), Energy Transfer (ETP) and Nustar (NS) are all fractional losers.

UBS has a report up on the yahoo mlp group board. Worth a look. Hoping for a last hour comeback.

Sure feels that way lately as Crude oil hit as crude oil hit 112 yesterday before backing off a touch. The USO chart which is a proxy for crude looks like its breaking out again to the upside. I suppose 120 is the next logical stop here. I'm just wating for a parabolic spike. It sure seems like that's what's coming.

Nat gas is also looking like its getting ready to spike out to a new high here and we do have gas numbers due out at 10:30am. And its not hurricane season yet.
And then there's us...the MLP index has for the first time since November cleared above its short term expotential moving least the ones i like to use as trading points. The moving averages looking like they are turning to a positive slope and the next thing to look for is the 34 day average to cross over the 55 and 89 which is of course bullish.
Enterprise (EPD) has a leaking pipeline in 85 ft of water in the Gulf of Mexico. That pipeline will be shut until repairs. News came out yesterday and took out about 66 cents here and EPD is a big component of the MLP index.

Wednesday, April 09, 2008

Heading into the last hour we have a 2 point loss and it looks like we will have our first down day in the last 8. Most mlps down with a few exceptions. No one point losers today but a lot of mlps down in the 50 to 80 cent range.

Atlas Resource (ATN) just continues to move higher up 1 and change.
Sellers have arrived albeit on not very impressive volume. All this while the energy commodities just take off. Oil up to 112.00 up 3.60; a record high. Nat gas is up even more on a percentage basis up 40 cents and over 10 bucks. MLPS on the index down 2 which is the first down day after 7 up days in a row.

Linn Energy (LINE) has been stronger all day and is up 40 cents on 600,000 shares. Atlas Energy Resource (ATN) is continuing to rip higher up 1 and change and is up nearly 8 points since the Cramer goose last week.

E V Partners (EVEP) is down nearly 1 as the biggest loser but that one is up from 22 to 29 in a hurry. Many MLPS that are down are in the context of weak pullbacks after the recent rally.

In a sign that not all is dead in MLP land Crosstex (XTEX) does a 3 million share placement of equity with Kayne Anderson and others at 30 bucks a share. They went to the well recently with a public offering so it would not have been in good taste to it again so soon. But its nice to see some interest and this is an MLP whose distribution coverage is pretty high. Stock is flat after opening higher.

Speaking of opening higher the MLP index has done it again and is continuing to run up against old support which has become resistence which is at 290 or so. It will break above that probably when the overall market takes out 12750 on the dow. Still sorting through the open and Atlas Holdings (AHD) and Atlas Resources (ATN) lead the way higher up major fractions. Copano (CPNO) is the biggest loser right now down 33 cents.

Tuesday, April 08, 2008

A small gain after another attack on 290 this morning. The mlp index is up 20 cents. Kind of a mixed day really with most moves fractional in nature in either direction. Some of the exceptions on the winning side Nustar Holdings (NSH) and Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) are both up about 1 on upgrades. Markwest (MWE) down 1 and change on its stock offering. Boardwalk (BWP) EV Partners (EVEP) and Magellan Holdings (MGG) seeing losses of 450 cents or more. DCP Midstream (DPM) seeing losses of 30 cents or so on its CFO leaving.

Looks like we continue to outperform relative to the market and i don't see that changing anytime soon.
Some moves by the anal-ists...Citigroup upgrades Nustar Holdings (NSH) and Enterprise Equity Holdings (EPE) to buy from hold. UBS ups Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) to buy from hold.

News leftover from last night as Plains All American (PAA) is buying Canadian pipeline company Rainbow and its expected to be accretive to earnings in about 6 months. Nice to see a deal again. Markwest dropped 2 points after the close as it is doing a 5 million share stock offering. Money is to be used in the capital budget for growth this year and to retire some debt. And DCP Midstream's CFO is leaving for another job.

This morning we start the day at just under 289 as the rall from 262 continues to extend itself. Where this short term move ends is anybody's guess but as long as the overall market seems to have support we will still have the wind at our backs.

More as we move through the morning.

Monday, April 07, 2008

We cracked back above 290 on the MLP index briefly and we are sitting just under it now at 289 and change. Only 8 mlps are down and those are down 25 cents or less. EV Partners (EVEP) is the biggest loser and down 23 cents right now.

Long list of upside winners including Williams (WPZ) Atlas Holdings (AHD) Alliance Resource (ARLP) Natural Resource (NRP) all up about 1 point or more. And the list of fractional winners is nice and long.

Dow looking to breakout above that 12750 zone. If it does then lookout!

Futures this morning telling us we're in for a strong start and after no sell off Friday on the employment numbers we continue to view the market as wanting to move higher.

Through all of this the dow transports have fared much better and in fact the transports are not too far away from setting an all time high...about 400 points or so away. Not impossible.

And of course we have our MLP chart which has come off its bottom and appears to be attempting to get back above 290 where the old base was from August. While the rally here started a little later than the dow, we have seen relative outperformance over the last 3 days and money returning to some of the harder hit PIPE victims. I would expect that trend to continue for the short term.
No morning headlines so far but this is an early post and no upgrades or downgrades have appeared yet. Crude oil is higher by 1 dollar this morning at 107 and change. Nat gas is up 15 cents. Dollar up..rates up. Based on yield spreads which have gotten to 400 basis points vs the 10 year we have tons of room to rally. And if we combine an increasingly favorable market enviornment for MLPS plus the next round of distribution increases coming plus spreads that could easily drop 100 basis points and we could be in for much higher prices.

Many of you are tackling your K-1's as we get out taxes done. And as always this time of year we get the MLP in and IRA question. Now i have MLPS in my IRA and i trade them in there. The issue is the UBTI or unrelated business income which if exceeds 1100 bucks triggers a tax event that will be paid with IRA money. Now my view on this is if you think MLPS are going to outperform longer term against anything else then its okay in my view to keep them in a IRA. As per the UBTI it is cumulative. In other words you can offset a positive UBTI in one MLP with a negative UBTI with another. And the yearly total if its a loss can be carried over to next year and beyond. And it is the responsibilty of the custodian of the account to do all the irs paper work. So all i do is collect the K-1s and mail it to Charles Schwab and they do the rest. Just some food for thought.

Friday, April 04, 2008


Finally...a good week. 5 up days. Up 14 points on the MLP index from 272.72 to 286.62. And we are up 24.60 points from the low on March 20th. Was that the final climax bottom. Looks like it so far

As for the charts...the weekly chart has not gone to a buy yet on the MACD but that could happen if we are higher again next week. Now it would be nice if we could at least get back into that channel of 290 to 300. Meanwhile the market did very well today holding up under the bad employment number. And remember this number 2 months ago would have sent the market into meltdown mode. It really looks like it wants to go higher and to prove it we need a breakout above dow 12700 on heavy volume. And MLPS will be leading the way (hopefully).

Now everybody have a great weekend. First good week in a long long time.


Another day of outperformance which is a good thing and we are seeing a recovery in the beaten down issues like Linn (LINE) Constellation (CEP) and a few others which makes this up move different from any other rally attempt since the fall. Couple that with the feeling that the market is setting up to rally off this employment number and we could make it 5 in a row today. But everything hinges on the 8:30am number.

UBS is upgrading Transmontaigne (TLP) to buy from hold. This one is thinly traded so it won't take much to take it over 30. Nothing else so far on the upgrade downgrade list. News from last night from Constellation Energy Partners (CEP) which closed on its recent deal but the part that may mean something is the company financed it all with debt and not equity which would be a positive. And they were able to to get it at a favorable rate. As per the distribution we have this from the press release.

Portfolio Impact -- Management expects to recommend to the board of managers maintaining a cash distribution of $0.5625 per outstanding common unit and Class A unit for the quarter ended March 31, 2008, or $2.25 per unit on an annualized basis. The distribution level is anticipated as a result of the impacts of drilling delays encountered during 2007 associated with weather and integration delays in the Cherokee Basin and pending the outcome of the arbitration relating to the termination of the Torch Energy Royalty Trust. Management will continue to evaluate distribution levels on a quarterly basis taking into consideration overall portfolio performance, acquisition integration and market outlook. All changes in distributions are subject to approval by the company's board of managers.

So no distribution increase but when you are yielding 11.40% there is room to rally without one although a boost would have been nice. Company blames drilling delays from last year but if that is resolved distribution boosts could come later this year.

Energy is up this morning as are stock futures. The 2 year note is at 1.90% and i point this out because as the measure of fear...the 2 year rate climbs above 2% it would be an indicator that fear is decreasing and the appetite for risk increasing.

Thursday, April 03, 2008

MLPS moving higher (again) and we have gains in issues that have been down the hardest which are outperforming some of the bigger mlps which held up better so far this year. The tape has a nice feel to it so we'll see if the gains build. The index is up 1.15 at 282 and change.

Atlas Resource (ATN) has been booming since the Cramer goose on Monday up 1 and change and over 36. Eagle Rock (EROC) Williams (WPZ) Linn Energy (LINE) are fractional winners among others.

Small fractional losses among losers like Plains (PAA) Sunoco (SXL) and Hiland (HLND) but nothing really tragic.

Adding to gains as i post!

Closed up nicely yesterday and what was particularly encouraging was that some of the decimated laggards like Linn Energy (EROC) and Constellation Partners (CEP) to name a couple made nice moves higher. So the MLP index chart continues a repair job off the damage done when we hit 262.00

Linn Energy (LINE) looks like it has put in a double bottom and now needs to move back above 24 for it to have some real meaning. More importantly is if we see followthrough today on Linn, Constellation, Eagle Rock, EV Partners and a few others it may mark the end of the hedge fund unwind and lend support that we had a portfolio blowout of mlps the week before Easter.

Also the issues mentioned are heavily held by Lehman Brothers and if the brokerage house was in trouble a few weeks ago when Bear Stearns went to pieces it might have added extra pressure which has now come off.

This morning is quiet on the news front and we have no upgrades or downgrades so far. Oil is down a buck after being up nearly 4 yesterday. Nat gas is up a few pennies ahead of nat gas numbers.

Finally this morning i went i and eliminated all offensive ads by by one. Now if i missed any let me know but the banner with the girls on it for the personals web site should no longer appear. If something slipped through the cracks please let me know.

Wednesday, April 02, 2008

Linn Energy up on 1.2 million shares; impressive. MLP index up 3 and small change and at the highs of the day.
Linn Energy said something because the stock is back over 20...the mlp index is over 281 and approaching a 3 point gain.
Market flat and MLPS higher with the index up over 2 points and back over 280. Williams (WPZ) Hiland (HLND) Atlas Resource (ATN) and Energy Transfer (ETP) are up 1 or more. Eagle Rock (EROC) and Constellation (CEP) Atlas Pipeline (APL) and Crosstex (XTEX) among the fractional winners.

A handful of losers and most of those just shedding small fractions or just a few pennies.
UBS starts Enbridge Energy Partners (EEP) with a buy.

I actually was pretty happy with yesterday's mlp performance with a 3.50 gain on the index. If you remember how many times over the last few months we saw big dow up days with the index down significantly. At least now they are moving in sync which is a good thing. I also wouldn't worry too much of the one day relative outperformace...up 3% for the S&P vs up 1.50% for us. Over a series of days, if the move is a real one we will play catch up at some point. Critical levels of 1375 and 12,700 on the major averages could get taken out today and if that happens the arguement for "the" bottom becomes much more solid. Meanwhile MLPS can rally back to 290 on the index where the old support was but i would not get too excited until we get there.

The news front on MLPS is silent this morning and we have no upgrades or downgrades. So lets bring on the open and go from there.

Tuesday, April 01, 2008

MLP index up 3 points and at the highs of the day as the last hour brings in buyers. Overall market strong with the dow up 366. Looking to see mlps close near their days highs by the close.
2 point gain on the mlp index as we head into lunch time. And i would caution those of you who are despairing that we are lagging the dow. We do tend to lag the action of the broader market and i would wait until the close to come to any conclusions.

Inergy Holdings (NRGP) and Hiland Partners (HLND) lead the winners list up 1 and change though they are among the more thinly traded. Atlas Resource Partners (ATN) is up 2 and change on the Cramer goose last night and is the big winner so far today. Lots of fractional winners today like Oneok (OKS), Martin Midstream (MMLP) Crosstex (XTEX), Atlas Pipeline (APL) and Sunoco Logistics (SXL).

Small number on the losers and unchanged list. Holly Partners (HEP) Atlas Holdings (AHD) Nustar (NS) and Regency (RGNC) are off small fractions.

So far so good...looking for strength to build this afternoon....unless this is one awful April fools joke.

We're an optimistic bunch in here. Okay so the bear market has taken us out to lunch and the charts below look awful. But it is a new quarter. Distribution increases are coming and since we are sitting with a yield spread at nearly 400 basis points i think we can be optimistic that that spread will shrink. At least we can hold that open for this morning with stock futures strong.

We probably won't know when the bottom is in until we are long past it and we can look back and say...there it was.

Meanwhile one of the better looking charts is the chart of Atlas Energy Resources (ATN) which has held up better after its natural gas discovery a few months ago. Well last night Cramer gave this stock a big goose on Mad Money. No guarantees that he will be right...but hell broken clocks are right twice a day (only kidding).

Atlas is bidding 32 this morning up 1 and some change from yesterday's close. No other news this morning and no upgrades or downgrades so far this morning. Energy is down a touch this morning with oil and 101. Stock futures up 11.50 as of this posting.