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Wednesday, April 16, 2008

SETTING UP FOR A BIG UP DAY....IF?


That if will be the cpi numbers due out at 8:30am. A hot number is probably baked into the cake particularly since Euro cpi overnight was a hot number and the dollar is being flushed down the toilet this morning. Nonetheless earnings have been very good so if we can get by cpi we may see some nice upside.

Meanwhile for all you hostile bears on the board lately....here are some charts showing the mlp index relative performace vs the S&P over 5 day, 3, and 6 months.

Notice the 3 month period which includes March shows just how nasty it got for this group when Bear Stearns hit and the Lehman rumous were running...and we were getting our you know whats squeezed in a vice.
And over 6 months were are outperforming the S&P which is a good thing.
Now i know some of you will see the index doesn't show the full impact as some mlps are down much more than everything else and i understand that. Maybe the lesson here is your mlp mix needs to be across the spectrum from the big boys to the speculative as well as the liquidity question which is important especially when selling. You have to sell but who are you going to sell to?
The MLP index is trying to push itself back to 290 as we are hopefully basebuilding and not topping out in an overall downtrend. Meanwhile here is the chart of Atlas Resources (ATN) which is just soaring...another 2 points yesterday. Don't you wish you bought in the mid 20s. And if you did...aren't you a happy camper!
Now i own this one..Penn Virginia Holdings (PVG) which looks like its building a nice base with an head and shoulders bottom formation. Needs to close above 29 with volume to confirm a breakout. I trade this one as well as hold shares for the long haul.

Okay news from last night as Buckeye's(BPL) deal with Inergy LP (NRGY)closes. Also we have a distribution increase from Oneok LP (OKS)to 1.04 from 1.0250. This morning Morgan Stanley upgrades Plains All American (PAA) to overweight from equal weight.

No other headlines so far. Oil at 114 and rising. Nat gas over 10 bucks and up this morning as well. Stock futures continue to strengthen...which of course could all get undone at 8:30am. But if we get by that...i think we could see some very good upside.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

About 2 months ago sold all my long term treasuries (at a profit) which was most of my net worth and started buying MLPs. They kept on going down and I kept on buying. Now past my eyeballs in MLPs.