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Thursday, May 31, 2007

Sorry for the lack of posts today but the racetrack called and i just had to answer. A bad day at the racetrack always beats a good day at work. Didn't win anything but it was still a nice day.

Back at full strength tomorrow.

The 319 ish low from last week is holding and the bounce from there gained steam yesterday with a 2.54 gain and a close near 328. Technically this puts us above the 34 day moving average and the next hurdle to clear is the 331-332 level.

To me whether we clear it or not will depend on whether that 4.90 level holds on the 10 year note.We are sitting just below that now and i suppose the employment numbers will be the determining factor over whether we break through that level or get turned back yet again.

But for today a firm stock market at record highs for the dow and s&p will probably carry us higher again.

Its quiet this morning on the corporate news front. Steifel Nicholas is telling us we should be buying Trans Montaigne (TLP) which closed yesterday at 35.86. Nothing else on the upgrade downgrade list so far but the morning is young.

Wednesday, May 30, 2007

Impressive rally here up 2.22 on the MLP index and we are back above the 34 day moving average so imho if we close here or higher it is probable that we go back and at least challenge the 336 high on the index.
Well after a one point down open the MLP index is now up .70 and energy is firm today. It also helps that 10 year yields are lower today as well. Inergy Holdings(NRGP) is down a bit more than 1 point; still absorbing last weeks stock offering. Breitbart (BBEP)is down nearly 1 as RBC says again its a market perform. Kinder Morgan Partners (KMP) is down slightly as the KMI deal closes.

Winners today include Legacy (LGCY), Energy Transfer Partners (ETP), Boardwalk (BWP) Atlas Pipeline (APL) and Terra Nitrogen (TNH) among others.

If the AMZ index closes above 326.38 it would put it back above my first support line...which would suggest a run back to the 336 high at least.

We'll start with the last one first. After the close yesterday Plains All American raised its guidance for the year which should make shareholders happy. Nothing in the premarket yet but i would expect this one to trade higher. This type of news seldom spreads to the rest of the group but it doesn't hurt. The main news driver this morning in the broad market is the selloff of 6% in China as they raise taxes on transactions to slow that market down. This will play its way through the first half hour and then the market will go its own way. MLPS did well yesterday closing over 325 and at the high for the day. Whether the rally continues or not will depend on the 10 year which is seeing its yield dropping a little this morning but 4.90 looms large as an upside breakout point. Watch the Dow Jones Utility average as an indicator of where we will be going in the short term.

No other corporate developements this morning and no upgrades or downgrades either. So bring on the open and lets get the day underway.

Tuesday, May 29, 2007

Holding on to gains as we enter the last hour. The MLP index is up near the highs of the day and is just under 325.
Gains getting extended here with the MLP index up a point and a quarter. Boardwalk Partners (BWP) which has been on life support for weeks now is up 1.12 and back over 34 bucks. Oneok LP (OKS) is up 1 now. Global (GLP) is up 84 cents and off its high. Suburban Propane (SPH) is up nicely along with E V Partners (EVEP),Sunoco Logistics (SXL) and Martin Midstream(MMLP).

Losers list is thinning out and most are off their lows but Constellation Energy Partners (CEP) is down 1.80 and Hiland LP (HPGP) is down 70 cents as the 2 biggest losers.
A little bit of hesitation at the open but after we worked through it the MLP index is higher now by just about half a point. Some of last week's bigger losers are turning around and are up nicely. Crosstex Energy LP (XTEX) is up 83 cent. Markwest Hydrocarbon (MWP) and Terra Nitrogen (TNH) are up 1. Global Partners (GLP) is up nearly 2. No news there that i can see.

Some losers on the list. Constellation Partners (CEP) is down 1.50. And we have Buckeye Partners (BPL) and Buckeye Holdings (BGH) down fractions. A few others like Holly Partners (HEP),Williams Partners (WPZ) and Nustar Holdings (NSH) losing fractionally as well.

Nice to see the bottom hold in here so we can increase the chances that the pullback was just that in a bull market move for this group. The jury is still out however.

If you want a reason for the recent correction you need look no further that the behavior of the 10 year bond verses the MLP index and you will note the upleg in the 10 year rate of the last few weeks in co-inciding with the reversal at 336 on the MLP index and the trip down here to 322. Friday's bounce off Thusday's nearly 3% drop left some MLPS behind but 1st day bounces often times don't carry everybody along.

Note that the 19 year is now resting just under the 4.90 breakout point. Lots of economic and fed data this week so we should get a decisive picture of where rates will go. And if 4.90 is taken out there really isn't any reason why the 10 year rate couldn't rally back to 5.25% which is the high from last July. No doubt in my mind that this correction in MLPS will deepen considerably if 4.90 is taken out.

The XOI index remains in an uptrend and at least there won't be an additional negative pull from an energy sell-off. However should we start to see bearishness develope here it would only add to pressure.
Its a quiet morning so far here in the pre open with no corporate news and no upgrades or downgrades so far. I'm hoping that Thursday was a climax bottom at 319 and change but if it isn't a quick trip down to 313-314 is the next line of defense at the 89 day moving average. Longer term the weekly chart of the MLP index remains bullish.

Friday, May 25, 2007

Up over 322 and finishing on a firm note..which is better than showing followthrough from yesterday. A 3 day weekend to rest and relax. 90 degrees today in NYC! Happy Weekend!
Breaking news on Breitburn (BBEP) as it makes another purchase with another distribution increase coming. Stock is up 75 cents on the day so far.

Holding firm but dow utilities are down 5 points again.

A nearly 3% selloff yesterday was messy but so far today we are bouncing. The 55 day moving average seems to be holding up around 321. Atlas Resource (ATN)is up 1 as is Atlas America(ATLS). Holly Partners(HEP) is up nearly a point as well. And many of yesterday's bigger losers are up fractionally. The MLP index is up 1 and change around 322.

Not bouncing...E V Partners which is down 1 and Boardwalk Partners which is been dropping for the last 6 weeks is down another 50 cents. Buckeye Partners (BPL) Calumet Products Partners (CLMT) and Plains All American are losing fractions.

Look for trading to slow to a crawl this afternoon as they make for the exits ahead of the 3 day weekend. No news of conseqence this morning and no upgrades or downgrades to report.

Thursday, May 24, 2007

Trying to digest today's move and figure out the implications. No doubt the sell off was coming. It was a matter of what would be the trigger and the rising 10 year yield to the top of the range is the reason. The moves were decisive. 23 mlps/gps/trusts were down 1 point or more; 11 were down between 1.50 to 3 dollars! Only 3 were up, 67 down.

Okay so if we are shopping for bargains and assuming this is just a bull market correction...we can certainly look at some potential bargains at the open tomorrow. I bought some Magellan today and also but some Buckeye Holdings. Tomorrow morning i will be looking at Calumet, Atlas Resource which sold off to 34 today, along with a few others. I'm hoping for a big down open to wash out the sellers and then wait for the rebound. Of course the best laid plans of mice and men and who knows whether the correction has run its course or not. But for sure there are some MLPS out there that have corrected nicely off their 52 week highs and are much better buys now then they were just 2 or 3 weeks ago.
20 minutes to go..a 9 point loss on the MLP nearly 3%!
The 2 MLP index heavy weights are down hard now both Kinder Morgan (KMP) and Enterprise Products Partners (EPD) down 1 and change. Only 4 winners that i could find..Atlas Pipeline Partners (APL) up 12 cents...Atlas Holdings (AHD) up 16 cents...Breitburn (BBEP) up 38 cents and Penn Virginia Holdings (PVG) up 40 cents. That's it! Everything else is down. 12 MLPS are down a point or more and 3 are down 2 points or more! You don't see selloffs in this group too often of this size.

If you were looking for cheaper have a slew to choose from today. Down 7.70 on the MLP index. Next support level for me is the 89 day movning average which is down around 313.
Down 7 points or 2% on MLP index!!!
Freefall continues down 6.22!
Down nearly 6 points. That 322 support level at the 55 day moving average is almost here.
Now down 5 points on the MLP index as 324 is about to break.
Desperately trying to hold the 324 area as they try to stablize them in here. Lots of 1 point plus losers as Oneok LP (OKS) joins the fray. Inergy Holdings (NRGP) is down 2. Buckeye Partners (BPL) is down 1 and change now.

One the winning side Penn Virginia Holdings (PVG) is up 50 cents and Hiland GP is also holding on to a 50 cent gain for some reason. Hiland LP (HLND) is down only 35 cents and volume has been a bit more brisk than usual. Not sure what if anything is going on here.
Down nearly 4 points now on the MLP falling here as the sell off widens. Only a handful of issues are higher...otherwise the whole group is down fractions to a point. The one point plus losses group has Magellan Midstream now joning...down 1.45
326 is gone and now were in the 325 zone as the selling has been pretty unrelenting this morning. 321 and change is where the 55 day moving average lies so we'll either be there soon or we'll rally back over 327 and change later this afternoon. Picking up a few bargains here with Magellan Midstream (MMP) and E V Partners (EVEP) and Buckeye Holdings (BGH). That is not to say they could become bigger bargains if this correction deepens. But the 10 year approaching 4.90 is setting off alarm bells.

MLPS in free fall this morning after a firm open so we keep having these higher opens and lower closes. The index is down 2.60 points and the selling has accellerated in the last hour. Holly Partners (HEP) Terra Nitrogen(TNH)Suburban Propane (SPH) Atlas Amercia (ATLS), Teppco (TPP) Calumet Specialty Products (CLMT) all down 1 point or more. Fractional minus litter the board today.
Only a few winners today..Breitburn (BBEP) is up fractionally as well as Hiland GP (HPGP) and Atlas Pipeline Partners (APL).
327 support has given way so where we close here is important. Next level is 321 which is not that far off. This is the first trip down to the support lines since last December.

Its Thursday morning and 80s loom today with sunshine in nyc...90 tomorrow and a good weekend so i'm sure minds will be on the exit doors as trading slows to a crawl by tomorrow. No news this morning and no upgrades or downgrades so far so we'll look for followthrough to yesterday's reversal and 2 point loss. Support levels lie just under us in the 325-27 range so we could be there quickly.

I'm working this morning so i will repost later this morning when i get home.

Wednesday, May 23, 2007

The AMZ index has broken below 330 and is now down 1 and the lows of the day.
The MLP index is down 50 cents; not sure where the drag is coming from but the list is split 50-50 between winners and losers. Calumet Specialty Products (CLMT) is up 2 and leads the way higher. Atlas America (ATLS)is up another 1 and change. And we have a host of fractional winners.

On the downside Constellation Partners (CEP) is down nearly 2 points. Terra Nitrogen (TNH) E V Partners(EVEP), Breitburn (BBEP), Markwest Hydrocarbon (MWP) and Teppco (TPP) are down 1 point or more.
The MLP index is flat but we have some sizeable moves in some issues in both directions. Calumet Specialty Products (CLMT) is up 1.40 on the upgrade this morning. Penn Virginia GP (PVG) is off its high but up nearly 1 point. Nustar(NS) was down nearly 5 at the open on its downgrade but it has made that all back and is only off a fraction right now. Atlas Holdings(AHD) is up nicely with a strong fractional gain along with Buckeye Holdings (BGH) and Global Partners (GLP).

Oil numbers were just another excuse to buy as crude is up at 66 bucks and energy stocks are generally higher. More excitment as the day wears on.

After 6pm last night Deutsche Bank told us that i cut 2 mlps from buy to hold and those 2 were Magellan Midstream Partners (MMP) Breitburn LP (BBEP) Nustar (NS) and Nustar Holdings (NSH). Well this morning it is upgrading Calumet Specialty Products (CLMT) from hold to buy and it is also raising Buckeye Holdings (BGH) from hold to buy. So we have 5 companies in our group likely to move this morning...2 up...2 down. Meanwhile stock futures over all are up a strong 6 points on the S&P so we will see a push through 1527 in the first 1/2hour. This puts a bid under MLPS this morning so we should have a higher open as well.

Energy markets are higher this morning after yesterday's selloff. No corporate headlines this morning at least so far but this is an early post for me.

Tuesday, May 22, 2007

After the close Deutche Bank cuts Magellan Midstream(MMP)and Nustar (NS) are cut to hold from buy. Should have some impact tomorrow.

No other headlines after the close tonight.
The MLP index is up 1.45 and we continue to see 1 point plus gains in Duke Midstream(DPM) Copano (CPNO) and Nustar Holdings (NSH) with Hiland(HLND) Penn Virginia Holdings (PVG)Linn Energy (LINE), Kinder Morgan (KMP) and Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) showing nice fractional gains.

Same losers as before with Terra Nitrogen (TNH) and Inergy Holdings (NRGP) losing 1 point or more.. Holly LP (HEP),Regency (RGNC), K-Sea (KSP) and Constellation Partners (CEP) are fractional losers.
Upside evident on the board today. Duke Midstream (DPM) is up 1 and change on its asset purchase. Penn Virginia Resources is up news there. Atlas (ATLS) is up 1 and change now. Nustar showing a 1 point gain as well. The MLP index is up .70 with more winners than losers.

Terra Nitrogen(TNH) is down 1 as is Inergy Holdings (NRGP) as the latter absorbs an equity offering. Maybe now the stock can trade with more liqudity instead of by appointment only and with 2 point bid and ask spreads. Holly Partners (HEP) and Trans Montaigne(TLP) are fractional losers.

After the close last night Duke Midstream buys up more assets and they're doing it with a private placement so no new equity coming out here. Stock has been one of the out performers in MLP land so look for more upside today. Meanwhile yesterday's 2 point gain in the MLP index stopped the downward drip we've been since last week.

There is so much underlying strength in here that MLPS just can't go down much before new buyers arrive. So yesteday's 2 point gain puts the index back over 330. While i thought we would head down into the moving average support levels starting at 326.65 the recent action looks like we may be having a trading range correction and just go sideways. Its all about evolution in here so we'll see what today brings. I guess i wouldn't be surprised to go back to 336 again.

Not much else happening this morning so far in the news department and no upgrades or downgrades the least for now.

My guess is look for follow through upside on Atlas Resource (ATN) and Atlas America (ATLS) after there big deal news yesterday...if they pull back at the might be worth buying for a trade.

Monday, May 21, 2007

After hours news...Duke Midstream which closed at 44 announces a purchase of assets with a private placement. Also Inergy Holdings prices an offering of units.
Well just when you thought we were heading for 326 its a 2 point plus upday on the MLP index with lots of nice gains on the board. Atlas Resources is up 4.Terra Nitrogen is up 2. Copano LP is up 1 and change along with Holly Partners and Nustar Holdings. A long list of fractional plusses on the board.

Linn Energy is down 60 news here. Trans Montainge, EV Partners and Boardwalk Partners are on the losers list with fractional losses around 50 cents or so.
Atals Resource (ATN) is up 6 and Atlas America (ATLS) is up 10 dollars on the deal news. This is lifting the MLP index up 1 and change so far.

Sunday, May 20, 2007


Not often we get a deal on Sunday night but we have one as Atlas Energy Resources (ATN) is buying 1 billion in assests...doing a private placement of equity and promising a big distribution increase for 2008! The distribution now is 1.72 and they are forecasting a rise of 2.20 to 2.40 per unit so at a 5% yield at $2.20 annual the stock prices should get into the 40s by next year.

Looks like a Monday morning big mover! Although one has to wonder whether word began leaking out on Friday since the stock closed up 1 ahead of the weekend.

And with a new week beginning i think we need to look at what is going on with MLPs as compared to the 10 year. We haven't been paying much attention to this in the last few months since the group has been on a bull tear and rates have done nothing. But notice that last week's sell off is co-inciding with a move up in the 10 year yield and that chart is looking to move higher toward the 4.90 area.

Now as long as 4.90 holds the correction in MLPS should remain contained to the moving average support lines. We're almost there on the 34 day at 326.44 and 320 and 312 loom right below there. But if 4.90% gets taken out and we are suddenly facing a move back to 5% or 5.25% we could be in for a serious pullback...perhaps to the 300 level as that is where the 34 week moving average sits on the weekly chart.

Note that the upmove in rates if it is real may be a reason to set off a broader market correction which is being forever predicted but never happening. Eventually broken clocks are right twice a day.

No other corporate developements this morning and no upgrades or downgrades at least so far.

Saturday, May 19, 2007

Street Sense gets nailed at the wire by Curlin but that's what makes a brilliant horse race. Too bad as i had the double..a win bet...2 pick fours and 2 pick 6's all go down the drain on that finish.

Meanwhile a couple of notes. Those of you who follow Richard Kinder of Kinder Morgan fame should read this piece about the KMI interesting read.

I have been looking at some charts of the 10 year note and it may be pointing to a further correction in our group. I'll have more on this Monday morning.

Friday, May 18, 2007

Nearing the lows of the day on the MLP index down 1 and small change at 327.60 so that 34 day moving average is just a few short downticks away. Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) is down 1.67 and under 60 bucks as the biggest loser today.Linn Energy(LINE) Atlas Resource (ATN) and Alliance Resource (ARLP) are up 1 point or more. The list is pretty well split in half today.

Ladies day at Pimlico....going with Winning Point in the Black Eyed Susan...race 12.

I haven't been paying to much attention to this lately but the 10 year rate has been climbing and now sits at 4.78%. I know its very short term but its hard to argue with the charts.
Attention readers we have a request

"Have you or any of your readers made sense out of the EVEP and LINE 1Q earnings reports and conference calls. I am particularly puzzled about the implications of the hedge losses. Thanks."

Those of you with any info please share it in the comments section. Just click and post. It would be a great help

Lunchtime and we're down to 328 on the MLP index as the bigger cap MLPS are all down fractionally. Terra Nitrogen is down 5 after being up to 92 and almost non stop bounce from 77. EV Partners is down with Oneok LP and Markwest among the bigger losers today. Atlas Resources (ATN) is up 1 as the biggest winner today with Linn Energy up 83 cents and there are a few other fractional winners.

Never a dull moment in MLP land!
God do i love this horse...Street Sense the pick in the Preakness
Circular K for second....there is your exacta
In the Black Eyed Susan/Preakness double take
Winning Point and Panty Raid with Street Sense
All in my never to be humble opinion of course!
The support zone on the MLP index is less than 3 points away so thats a one day selloff and we're there.

Still the week's moves Terra Nitrogen excluded have been rather orderly. And there was some buying noted late yesterday in some of the small and mid size MLPS. So this morning we have news from Trans Montaigne (TLP) as they have priced their offering which by the way barely moved the stock lower which is unusual. Says a lot here for demand. Martin Midstream saw the same thing happen as it completed its offering earlier in the week.
There are no upgrades or downgrades on the list this morning but it is early so this may change. Stock futures are higher this morning and energy is mixed to higher with oil up, gasoline down and nat gas flat.
So here we go with the open. News headlines as they break.

Thursday, May 17, 2007

Not exactly plummeting into a sink hole...on the other hand not exactly hitting the cover off the ball either. The MLP index is essentially flat right now with not much movement in either direction on any particular issue. Terra Nitrogen(TNH) is up 2 and Brietburn (BBEP) is up 3 on a new purchase and a recommended pre-distribution increase. The company is doing a priviate placement so no new equity.

Losers include Holly Partners(HEP) Hiland LP (HLND) Duke Midstream (DPM) and Williams (WPZ) all showing losses of 50 cents or less.

Going to be an interesting day as i sense a bull bear battle here.

Its a pretty simple proposition here. We're down 8 points from Monday morning when we crossed 336...straight down in fact since then. We're sitting at 328 and high change before the open this morning.And we should head lower today right into the supporting moving averages that i like to use...34..55..89..144 etc.

On the daily chart its pretty clear. Relative strength has broken down. MACD is in sell mode. So this will be the first time since the end of 2006 that we will visit those moving averages. Note that down bar in the middle of March is a data error.
The weekly chart however still has not topped out yet so until that one flips to a sell i am inclined to believe this is an overdue sharp correction that may work to give us some much deserved bargains. Speaking of which Magellan Midstream pulled back sharply yesterday after opening at proceeded to drop nearly 3 points by the close. This one has a habit of dropping into its moving average support zones which can provide bargains although they don't seem to last. This is an MLP that has increased its distribution 24 quarters (6 years) in a row.
Willams Partners (WPZ) actually closed up 70 cents yesterday and has been in a sideways consolidation for the last few weeks...this one my be poised to be among the next round of leaders. I am watching carefully....any drop and i may be there waiting.
Okay so the morning begins with the energy complex higher...stock futures are basically unchanged. No corporate headlines this morning and no upgrades or downgrades so far. Trans Montaigne (TLP) is doing a stock offering today but this news has been out for days and so far there has been very little impact on prices. Martin Midstream (MMLP) did a 1 million share offering this week that did nothing to move its price.
Terra Nitrogen (TNH) bounced up 5 points yesterday and we'll look for some followthrough this morning.

Wednesday, May 16, 2007

A 4 point down close...the good news is on the index we're only 2 points above the 34 day moving average and the 55 day moving average is at 320 and rising so if this plays out according to plan we should have this sharp shakeout and it may pass quickly. Meanwhile Magellan Midstream (MMP) was down 2 points on the day and Enbridge Energy Partners (EEP) closes down 3 as it announces a stock offering of 5 million plus shares. Williams Partners (WPZ) rallied today by 75 cents and Altlas Resources climbed 90 news on either one.

Tonight I will be taking a look at some of these charts and lets see if can't come up with some sort of shopping list. I can tell you this...Magellan has a habit of dropping to the 55 day moving average every few months..that is sitting at 46.11 and the 89 day moving average takes us down under 45...might be worth a look tomorrow if it gets there. Breitbart LP (BBEP) is at 33...down from 37. If it drops a little more i might get interested.

Meanwhile Terra Nitrogen bounced nicely today...up nearly 5 on the day. I was able to make some nice trades and clear some money which is good.
The index lows were hit about 40 minutes ago...just under 329...and there is a bounce attempt at work here. Much of the loss is concentrated in Enbridge, Buckeye, Oneok, Plains All American and a few others as those issues continue to show 1-2 point losses.

Last hour as always will tell the tale!
Down nearly 4 points...i think we have our correction. Lots of 1 point plus losses on the board as all the major players are selling off. Buckeye Partners (BPL) is getting hit hard down 1.70 and Regency (RGNC) joins the fray down over 1 point.

Terra Nitrogen (TNH) is up 2 and change as the biggest winner as it rebounds but it is an exception here. The few winners are up less than half a point and most of those are up just pennies.
Losses accellerating with the index down 3.50 and under 330 now. 326 is not that far away.
The MLP index looks like it may have finally entered a corrective mode here as we are down nearly 6 points from yesterday's high which was over 336...we're sitting at 330 and change. 326 is the support level stop so we'll see how far this selloff carries us.

Losers of a point or more including Sunoco Logistics (SXL), Genesis LP (GEL) and Enbridge Energy Partners (EEP) is down 2 and change. Lots of fractional losers on the board including Kinder Morgan (KMP), Markwest (MWE), Oneok LP (OKS) and a host of others.

Terra Nitrogen(TNH) is up 1 and off its high of the day. Duke Midstream (DPM) is also a one point winner. Hiland LP (HLND) E V Partners (EVEP) are up fractionally. A few others are up small amounts.

The new wall appears to be 336 which is were the selloff began yesterday and we know start today just under 333 after dropping nearly 3 points yesterday. A lot of the big MLPS pulled back with 1 point or more losses in Teppco(TPP) and Oneok(OKS) for example although the two heavyweights in the index; Kinder Morgan(KMP) and Enterprise Products Partners (EPD) did drop by much. And of course the correction to beat all corrections may have hit bottom yesterday as Terra Nitrogen LP (TNH) went straight down from 99 to 77 without blinking an eye. A bounce is certainly due and the stock is up 2 points in the pre-market. At 77 it has a yield in the mid 7% range which is on the high end for the group. So assuming there is nothing else going on here other than a violent round of profit taking...a bounce to the upper 80s is in order. I hope so since i have been building a position for this since early

E V Partners came out with earnings after the close yesterday. There has been a tendency for the big movers to sell off on their earnings news like Linn Energy which dropped 2 and change yesterday.

Energy is a little softer this morning at the open which doesn't mean much. No upgrades or downgrades. Stock futures are a touch higher in the pre-open.

Tuesday, May 15, 2007

Down 2.50 on the MLP index...Holly (HEP) is down 1 and change now, Oneok (OKS) Suburban Propane (SPH) and Inergy Holdings (NRGP) are down major fractions. Genesis (GEL) is down 1.25.

Alliance Resource (ARLP,AHGP) are up about 50 cents as this afternoon's biggest winners. Still no sign of a bounce in TNH.
Down nearly 2 points on the MLP index as we head into the last hour as a few winners earlier are turning lower and those that were lower are seeing their losses extended. Dow selling off and now up just 30 points.
CNBC called attention to Terra Nitrogen's 21 point selloff as the stock was trading around 77.60 and how it was momentum players coming out of the stock. It is now back over 79. Question is whether it was "a" bottom or "the" bottom. I've been accumulating a small trading position in here...hoping that the bounce is coming.

MLP index is now down 1 point.
The MLP index this afternoon is down a little less than half a point. Linn Energy (LINN) is down 3 now on its earnings news and conference call. I've become fascinated with Terra Nitrogen (TNH) which is down 22% in 2 days from its intraday high yesterday of 99.88! No news and volume is massive for an MLP like this one...over 1 million shares! Looks like massive profit taking underway here. Buckeye Partners(BPL) is down 50 cents as is Global Partners (GLP) and a few others. Plains All American (PAA) Boardwalk Partners (BWP) and Natural Resource Partners (NRP) are fractional winners.
Movers this morning include Terra Nitrogen (TNH) which is down over 6 points but off its lows. Linn Energy is down 2.75 as earnings may have been good but there is selling on the news. One of my readers in this morning's post commented that the coverage ratio may have been a little soft for the next quarter or two but will increase late in the year. Atlas Holdings (AHD) is up nearly 1 news there. The MLP index is down a small fraction after being higher earlier.

Tuesday morning news drivers include earnings from 2 more MLPS, Linn Energy(LINN) and Regency Partners (RGNC) and the market has opened up both stocks higher this morning. The MLP index opens higher by .70 this morning and we have the usual round of fractional gains to start things off. Terra Nitrogen has been in free fall since hitting 99.88 yesterday and is now nearly 17 points below that at 81. You would think this were Amazon.bomb...or something.

Global Partners(GLP) got the downgrade this morning as Lehman goes to equal weight from overweight and RBC leaves Hiland (HLND)at sector perform but takes the stock's target down 2 bucks. Stock is up anyway. The market is now selling off on the earnings news for Linn and Regency...Linn is down and Regency has gone flat. Terra Nitrogen (TNH) is down 7 now at 78 and change.

I'm a little late with the opening post today as i had errands this morning but updates to follow.

Monday, May 14, 2007

Watching Terra Nitrogen trade this afternoon...traded as high as 99.88 up 3 and change and then...poof...down to 91 and change and off 4 on the day. Lots of action for sure.

Still firm with a .55 gain on the MLP index...not much change in the winners and losers list from earlier.
Thank God for glass coverage as i shattered my windshield with cedar planks for my deck. Isn't life lovely.

Lunchtime brings higher prices in MLPS with the index over 336 and up 60 cents on the day. We have 1 point gains in Constellation (CEP)and Inergy Holdings (NRGP) and a round of fractional gains in Magellan Midstream (MMP), Oneok LP (OKS) Suburban Propane (SPH) and a few others.

Nustar Holdings (NSH) is down 1 as the biggest loser. Some of last weeks bigger winners are giving back a bit today Like Duke Midstream (DPM) Genesis LP (GEL) and Martin Midstream (MMLP).

Back to nailing boards onto the deck....Alarms are set on my laptop for when price levels are taken out so i am nearby watching.

Monday morning and its quiet in MLP land as we have no headlines and no upgrades or downgrades so far. Transmontaigne (TLP) was down Friday as they are doing a stock offering this week, expected to come to market Thursday. That's pretty much it on the morning news front.

With earnings just about done on MLPS and distribution checks hitting mailboxes in the next few days not much is left on the table so we turn to market forces this morning as the primary drivers. Stock futures are a little softer while the energy complex starts the morning firm.

The charts are still quite positive signs of a top in either the short term daily chart or in the weekly chart. Still looks like it wants to go higher. Fridays close over 335 gives us another new alltime high.

At the beginning of this chart is the point of the prior breakout at 190 which topped 14 months later at 270 for a 50% move so if the moves are similar (big assumption) it means the rally lasts until December and tops around 400 on the MLP index.

Friday, May 11, 2007

MLPS are up and the index is sitting near 335 and of course at all time highs. Terra Nitrogen (TNH) is up another 4 and change and is sitting near 95..up 13 points in the last few days. Sunoco Logistics (SXL) Duke Midstream (DPM) and E V Partners are up a point or more. The list of fractional gainers is quite long.

Trans Montaigne (TLP) and Nustar GP (NSH) are both down over a point but no specific news for either one.

Looks like a firm finish today as we head into another weekend. Distribution checks will be arriving on Monday...lucky us!

We are at Friday in an active week with lots of earnings news and Dan Duncan deals with Energy Transfer Equity and Teppco so today we seem to be taking a breather in the news department. There are no headlines of importance this morning. RBC Capital Markets is raising its target price on Markwest Energy(MWE) from 30 to 39 bucks...the stock sits above 36. Credit Suisse starts Cheniere LP (CQP) at a neutral.

So what do we make of yesterday where the overall market sold off 1% and MLPS closed flat. Well from a relative strenght basis we're still attracting buyers on any attempt at weakness which is a good sign. I thought last week we would correct to the 34 day moving average at 323 which did not happen. All it took was for Dan Duncan with his equity stake purchases earlier in the week signaling to the market that in his view the group still looks attractive.

PPI numbers this morning were market friendly so futures are firming...oil and gasoline are higher...nat gas a little lower. So we await the open and i will post with any breaking headlines.

Thursday, May 10, 2007

Heading into the final hour we have the MLP index up 25 cents and at new all time highs if it closes here. A few more mlps have moved above water and losers are off their lows for the most part. Terra Nitrogen (TNH) is up another 2 and Martin Midstream (MMLP) joins the list of 1 point winners along with Global Partners (GLP) which is now up 1 as well.
We rallied up 1 at the open...then pulled back lower as the market sold off and now we're flat on the MLP index. Inergy Holdings (NRGP) and Inergy LP (NRGY) are both up over 1 point each as they continue to react to good earnings. Copano (CPNO) adding another fraction and at a new all time high. Global (GLP) Regency (RGNC) and Genesis LP (GEL) are all ahead by fractions.

The losers list is a little longer than the winners list. Hiland (HLND) and Hiland GP (HPGP) are both 1 point losers right now as the conference call did nothing to move the stock out of its hole. Linn Energy (LINN), Suburban Propane (SPH) and a few others are also losing major fractions.

Coming into the afternoon as Europe closes so lets see if the market stablizes or heads lower and pulls everything with it.
Earnings out on Global Partners this morning which include a sale of NYMEX shares. We also have Suburban Propane reporting numbers. RBC Capital raises its target on Legacy Reserves (LGCY) to 29 from 27 bucks.

Well it took one good push and we're back at a new all time high close in MLP land. Enterprise Products Partners (EPD) has a 14% weighting in the index and with an 80 cent up move yesterday, it gave a big push to the mlp index.

So we've given up forecasting a correction and will just let it happen when it happens.

Meanwhile earnings news this morning from Crosstex Energy (XTEX) and now we know why there was no distribution boost as the DCF coverage ratio was a .86 which is not good. However the company did say that cash flow was diverted to completing projects and that they exepct cash flow to grow "rapidly" in future quarters. This should be all priced in but i'm never a good guesser at these things...and I admit that i do have an optimistic bent. But at least in the press release i don't see anything that wasn't already known or that i had already figured out.

Also Duke Midstream posted earniings numbers last night that looked impressive. The company has completed its recent purchase and so far we see no signs of them coming to market with an equity sale. The stock continues to climb and sits above 43. Stargas announces earnings as it continues to move foward.

Nothing yet in upgrades or downgrades but it is early. Stock futures are a little soft this morning which really means nothing these prices are higher this morning...10 year rates hold flat.

Watch the Hiland Partners (HLND) conference call this morning as a potential stock mover if they indicate that distribution growth will resume after no raise this quarter.

Wednesday, May 09, 2007

332.80 is the old high close on the index and we're at 334.10. 334.51 is the intraday high from last Monday.
Terra Nitrogen LP(TNH) is up 5 and change today...God knows why cause i don't. The MLP index is up over 2 and we may have a close at new all time highs today if the rally continues.
Citigroup downgrades Enterprise Holdings (EPE) to a hold from buy. Stock down just 30 cents. More earnings from Inergy LP which has the stock up 1.70 at this time. They beat by 28 cents and raised guidance for next year. Calumet LP (CLMT) posts earnings and the stock is up 1.21 right now. Enterprise Products Partners (EPD) is up 90 cents and that is giving a big boost to the MLP index which is up nearly 2 points this morning and is within reach of a new all time closing high. Inergy Holdings (NRGP) finally traded a few shares up 1.50.

Meanwhile the 2 Hilands (HPGP,HLND) are both down 1 point and small change on its earnings and guidance which i thought was pretty good. Not much volume however. Markwest (MWE), Trans Montaigne (TLP) and a few others are down fractionally.
Hiland (HLND,HPGP) is out with earnings and guidance and it looks to me like that lack of a distribution hike may have been a one quarter hic-cup. Guidance for for the rest of the year and next year looks very good.

Inergy Holdings (NRGP) press release on earnings is now out. So is the earnings release for Constellation Energy Partners (CEP).

Enterprise Products Partners (EPD) is up 1 in the premarket as is Inergy LP (NRGY).

RBC Capital raises its target price to 35 bucks on Genesis LP (GEL) and keeps it at an outperform.

Every so often someone emails or posts in the commment section about an MLP that i had no idea about. This one came to me yestereday and all i can say about it is...why did you not find this sooner!

Terra Nitrogen LP is the greatest MLP story never told. Its up 4 fold since last summer and has a nearly 8% yield. Here is the company profile from Yahoo.

Terra Nitrogen Company, L.P., through its subsidiary, Terra Nitrogen, Limited Partnership, engages in the production and distribution of nitrogen fertilizer products for use in agricultural and industrial markets. Its nitrogen product includes anhydrous ammonia, a form of nitrogen fertilizer and the feedstock for the production of other nitrogen fertilizers, such as urea ammonium nitrate solutions (UAN). Terra also produces UAN by combining urea solution and ammonium nitrate solution. Terra Nitrogen GP, Inc. serves as the general partner of the company. It sells its products primarily in the Central and Southern Plains and Corn Belt regions of the United States. Terra�s customers include dealers, national farm retail chains, distributors, and other fertilizer producers and traders. The company was founded in 1991 and is based in Sioux City, Iowa.

Not bad for a "shitty" company.

Okay now for morning news and we have earnings from last night as Copano (CPNO) posted numbers. This morning Inergy Holdings reports earnigns as their numbers rise. Constellation Energy Partners (CEP) also puts up numbers for the quarter. Headlines only on the other 2 and as links arrive to the news stories i will post them.

No upgrades or downgrades this morning so far. MLPS look like they may mount an assault on Last Monday's top rather than trade down to support lines. Yesterday's announcment of Mr Duncan taking stakes in ETE and TPP is certainly a statement that someone thinks these companies are good investments for the long haul...and that some of them may still be cheap.

Stock futures are a little soft ahead of the fed complex is mixed this morning but moves are small on either side of unchanged.

Tuesday, May 08, 2007

Holding on to gains in the last hour just under the 332 level on the MLP index. Some of the GP's today are having a good day as they react to the Energy Transfer Equity (ETE) move today. Atlas Holdings (AHD) is up 1 and small change. Magellan Holdings (MGG) is up 50 cents. Hiland Holdings (HPGP) is up 60 cents.

Holly Partners(HEP), Martin Midstream (MMLP) and Copano(CPNO) are all down a point or more as the 3 biggest losers today.
MLP's are in their own world today as the rest of the market is down this morning. The index is up 1.50 and the index is getting close to 332 again. Energy Transfer Equity holders should be dancing in the streets today as the stock is up nearly 4 points on the Enterprise stake of 17%. Enterprise Holdings (EPE) is up over 3 points while EPD is up only 15 cents. Teppco (TPP) is up 56 cents on the Duncan deal. Markwest Hydrocarbon (MWP) is up 1.50 on its earnings getting back half of yesteday's losses. Eagle Rock (EROC) is up 50 cents on its upgrade from Wachovia and a target increase by Lehman.

Martin Midstream is down 1 on earnings and is the biggest loser. Some small fractional losers on the board but no other real standouts so far.
Lehman reminds us to overweight Eagle Rock (EROC) and raises its target to 27 bucks from 21.
RBC Capital Markets reminds us that it has Williams Partners as a top pick and raises its target price by a dollar to 49 bucks.

Yesterday i posted about how nice it would be to wake up to a deal. Well Dan Duncan must of heard me and bless his heart, always the accomodating soul Dan has taken stakes in two of them. He has taken a 4% stake in Teppco (TPP) and a 17% stake in Energy Transfer Equity (ETE) which holds a large block of Energy Transfer Partners (ETP). All of this will have a positive impact on Enterprise Products Partners (EPD) which will see higher distributions down the road. Bullish moves for all of the above and this could be a group mover.

We also had earnings news last night as Martin Midstream Partners (MMLP) puts up quarterly numbers. US Shipping also put up its numbers and announced its distribution. Trans Montaigne (TLP) which wins the award as the MLP with the most fabulous name...put up its earnings and announces a 10,000 unit buyback. Markwest Energy posted quarterly earnings. Markwest Hydrocarbon(MWP) also announced earnigns but the stock was down nearly 3 dollars ahead of the news last night so we'll find out this morning what has or has not been priced in on a stock that has more than doubled in the last 6 months.

Wachovia which has been busy cutting MLPS in the last few weeks is doing the oppposite today as it raises Eagle Rock Partners (EROC) to outperform from market perform. And by the way i was wondering yesterday why both Crosstex's (XTEX,XTXI) were up sharply...well it turns out XTEX got a goose from Morningstar while XTXI got a goose on Fox News Saturday. Thanks to readers Max and "vonhayek-schumpeter" to readers who posted the information in the comments section.....something i encourage all of you to do since sharing information is always a good thing.

Energy is mixed this morning with oil slighty higher and gas slightly lower. Stock futures are a little soft this morning so there will be a weaker influence at the open. More news as headlines break but i will be interested to see if the Dan Duncan stake purchases light a fire under the entire group. Yesteday took us back over 330. I think i'm going to throw in the towel with regards to predicting a correction in this group and just let things play out. It just seems there is too much money looking to buy in on any sort of pullback...even if its less than 2%.

Monday, May 07, 2007

Its been a steady firming this afternoon with the MLP index now up 1.62 at 330.56. Nustar Holdings (NSH) is up 1.55 to a new all time high as gasoline remains the focal point of the market. Markwest Hydrocarbon (MWP) is down 3 bucks but no news there.
Good day so far as the MLP index is back over 330 and up 1 and change on the day. Crosstex Energy (XTEX) is the biggest winner up 1.25 on volume but no news that i can see. Also Nustar Holdings (NSH) is up another dollar as gasoline heads to 4 dollars a gallon! Linn Energy is up 1 and change on its asset purchase this morning. Copano (CPNO) is also up nearly a dollar.

Losers today Markwest Hydrocarbon down 2.55 and Hiland Holdings (HPGP) is down nearly 1. Fractional losses in Altas Resource (ATN), Penn Virginia Holdings (PVG), Global Partners (GLP) and a few others.

Maybe one Monday morning we'll wake up to one to a deal in the MLP space with so and so taking out such and such at a 10 dollar premium so that there will be much rejoying and dancing in the streets...but today ain't that day. Its quiet this morning as we have no headlines. The bulk of the group has gone ex-distribution so that is behind us and the checks will be in the mail in the next few days. And there are no upgrades or downgrades to speak of so far so I guess we will trade off the overall market trend...which this morning looks flat. The energy complex is a little weaker so not much to move us there.

Actually we have headlines crossing now that Linn Energy is buying up more assets that will be accretive but unlike other prior buys the company is not pre-announcing any distribution increase.

The MLP index daily chart is correcting but the good news is that if it doesn't get out of hand we should pull down to the 322-323 area and find support there. And that is only 5-6 points below where we are now or a little less than 2%. And the weekly chart remains in a bullish uptrend so i am not worried for the time being.

Finally this morning this horse is going to win the triple crown this year. Street Sense is the real deal off that incredible performanc in the Derby.

Saturday, May 05, 2007

New link for you to enjoy. Dual Income No Kids has some very useful information including some past notes on Boardwalk Partners. Definitely worth a look guys.

And what a performance by Street a nice payoff from the futures pool which paid nearly 7-1!

Friday, May 04, 2007

We're at the lows of the day at 328 and small change down 1.75. But there is good news in that support in view is in the 322 area so we aren't that far away. So it looks like a short term orderly correction in the group at least so far.
Down 1 and some change on the MLP index although again we have some distortions with respect to ex-distributions. Natural Resource Partners (NRP) was down 3 points at the open on the Citigroup downgrade but has since cut the loss in half. Williams is down about 30 cents on its downgrade. I've noticed lately with the group getting downgraded stock by stock is that the first downgrade does the most damage and each one that follows does less and less. Magellan Midstream (MMP) for example dropped from 51 to 46 over several days on a Citigroup downgrade but when Lehman cut them yesterday the stock actually closed higher. And in the case of Nustar (NSH) the houses have cut and the stock keeps going higher...which means that the fundamentals in the gasoline market are probably far more important than any anal-ist opinion.



Another week passes and MLPS continue to resist a drop although when you look at the daily chart it seems like its time for at least a pullback. The 34 day moving average is sitting just below 322 and it wouldn't take much to get there. The reversal from the 334-335 level continues to impact trading but after the nearly 3 point drop Tuesday the group has tried to make a stand at 330. Also note that we have been dealing with lots of ex-distributions which have been imacting the index.

The weekly chart on the other hand remains completely in bull mode even if we wind up with a down close this week. Thats why i still believe any pullback is short term in nature and that we still have higher prices in our future.
This morning we have no corporate news however we have another downgrade from Citigroup. Earlier this week they cut Magellan Midstream (MMP) and today they cut Natural Resource Partners (NRP) from buy to hold. They upgraded the stock a few months ago when it was in the upper 20s (adjusted for a 2-1 split).
So there you have it for a Friday morning. Jobs numbers will be the overall market mover today. The energy complex is flat but firm and stock futures are strong ahead of the employment data.

Thursday, May 03, 2007

MLPS losing a little steam here as the index is now down .60. No disaster certainly but it looks like some of the bigger cap mlps are down like Buckeye and Kinder Morgan. Alliance Resouce GP (AHGP) is up over a dollar and Plains All American is up nearly 2 points. Nustar Holdings (NSH) is pushing 35 bucks up nearly 1point as well.

Not much has really changed since lunchtime but the last hour often can make or break a day.
Plains All American (PAA) came out with earnings and its outlook late yesteday and the stock is rolling higher up 1 and change. This is holding up the MLP index which was down more than a point earlier but has pulled back to even and over the 330 level. More losers than gainers as some stocks are using the excuse of earnings and /or ex-distributions to sell off like Holly Partners (HEP) Williams Partners (WPZ) which are both down over 1 point and Penn Virginia (PVR/PVG) which are down strong fractions. Magellan (MMP) is down 66 cents as of this posting but off the lows on the Lehman downgrade.

Not sure what to make of the trading so far...MLPS sure trying hard to hold on.
Earnings out this morning from Williams Partners (WPZ) and also earnings from Genesis LP (GEL) which is up 50% in the last 3 weeks.

Natural Resource Partners has now posted earnings as well.

Nothing additional on the upgrade downgrade list so far.
Magellan Midstream (MMP) is trading down another 86 cents in the pre-market.

We'll start off the morning with some leftover news from last night as Penn Virginia GP (PVG)announces higher earnings and a higher distribution. And of course we also have earnings numbers from Penn Virginia Resources LP (PVR).

A few MLP charts are in corrective mode. Magellan Midstream was 53 and change Monday morning before turning south and now sits just under 48.

It certainly looks like this one which has been climbing for almost a year is taking another one of its usual dips into its moviing average support lines. If you are searching for an entry point on this one we may be getting close to the zone. This morning Lehman Brothers cuts the stock from overweight to equal weight. This follows the Citigroup cut on Tuesday from buy to hold. Also this morning Friedman Billings drops coverage on Atlas Pipeline Partners (APL).

More MLPS going ex-distribution this morning including Willams Partners(WPZ), Boardwalk Partners(BWP), Buckeye (BPL) among others. The MLP index yesterday tried to rally and closed fractionally higher. The MLP index islooking at support around 321 and some change. I think today's trading should tell us whether we are headed down toward the moving averages.

I am back to normal today so i will be posting at my usual regular rate.

Wednesday, May 02, 2007

Opening day at Belmont i'm off to make some money on a few horses...meanwhile we're not going down...after a softer open we are slightly higher so far today. The overall market and energy stocks are firm while the complex is lower except for nat gas.

Markwest Hydrocarbon(MWP) is up 2 and change and Sunoco Logistics (SXL) is up 1 and change as the 2 big winners today. General Marine (GMR)is down 1 on an earnings miss while Hiland GP (HPGP) is down 70 cents and Magellan Midstream down 60 cents are the 2 biggest losers.

Btw...i love Street Sense for the Derby Saturday and he has the talent to pull off the elusive triple crown...of course in my never to be humble opinion of course.
2 down days in a row and yesterday we finished just off the lows of the day. Could this be the beginning of a long awaited pullback...or not? Well the jury i guess is still out but if we get another down day today and break below the 70% rsi line I think we can safely say we're finally correcting. The 34 day moving average is sitting at 321 and rising so we're sitting 8 points above that. We last came down to that level back in early January 2007.

So if this is indeed the long awaited correction what do we buy? My view would be to stick with those MLPS that have been growing their distributions from quarter to quarter but on the other had if you believe that the hic-cups that have occured in Crosstex (XTEX,XTXI) Hiland LP (HLND) and Atlas Pipeline (APL) are just single quarter events...we'll they have already had their blow-ups so this could be an opportunity to pick up MLPS that...if they resume distribution growth later this year...could emerge as the next round of leadership.

This morning we have a downgrade of NuStar GP Holdings as AG Edwards takes it from buy to hold...and after a 50% move it sort of makes sense i guess. Steifel Nicholas is starting Cheniere LP at a buy.

Some news from last night. General Marine (GMR) came out with earnings which looked soft. The stock traded down 2 bucks in after hours so we'll see if that carries over today.

Tuesday, May 01, 2007

Losses getting extended this afternoon as the MLP index is at 329.40 down 2.78 on the day. Magellan Midstream (MMP)is down 2 points and so is EV Partners(EVEP)...we have 1 point plus minuses in Nustar(NS), Duke Midstream(DPM), Markwest(MWE), Hiland LP(HLND), and Holly Partners(HEP...along with a bunch of fractional losers.

Its been so long since we've seen a down day like this i've forgotten what it looked like and how to trade it.

Well we haven't seen this in awhile but the MLP index is down 2.50 points and at the low of the day at this point so follow through selling to yesterday's reversal would suggest we have a short term top at 334-335. But the day is young so who knows. But if we have begun a correction short term we should visit the 34 day moving average which is sitting at 320 today and is still rising. Magellan (MMP) and Markwest (MWE) are the 2 biggest losers down 1.76 and 1.38 respectively. And we have a large group of fractional losers. Oneok LP (OKS) a winner among few up 50 is Inergy Holdings (NRGP) up about 30 cents.
Magellan Midstream(MMP) gets cut to hold from buy from the boys at Raymond James

Okay so yesterday afternoon we had a pretty sharp intra-day reversal as the MLP index was up 2.40 and then fell below the flat line to a slight down close. Now this probably was related to end of month activity and some profit taking or profit booking. But this was the first time we saw anything resembling a reversal in many many months. Could this be a sign that we may have finally reached a short term top? Well the short answer is "who knows" Bottom reversals usually work pretty well but top reversals are a little harder to figure. First off it was just one day and donwside follow-through would need to show up on the tape today. And again please bear in mind we're talking about short term noise here. But i will say that the upside move we've enjoyed has con-incided with the market rally. Yield compression has taken us where there isn't as much yield support as we're use to. So if a broad market sell-off were to occur we would probably follow along at least for awhile. But for now we watch and wait to see what developes. Stock futures are higher this morning and energy is firm...10 year rates supportive.

Holly Partners has gone parabolic and we have earnings out this morning. We'll see if the numbers are priced in. Lehman Brothers (I am not sure which one) is downgrading Nustar from overweight to equal weight which is their version of buy to hold i guess. The morning is young but this is all i have for now on this front.

By the way some of the pullbacks yesterday were quite dramatic. Take Magellan Midstream (MMP) which traded above 53 at one point yesterday up 2 and change...then dropped after 2pm to 49.66...down 1 and change...and closed down about 20 cents. Its not often you see a nearly 4 point range in one day on an MLP.