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Tuesday, July 31, 2007

Sometimes when the brokerages tell you to sell..its already to late. That would explain the 2 point gain in Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) after getting cut to reduce by UBS this morning. I guess the market had enough taking this one down from 64 to 51 in a hurry.

Meanwhile the MLP index got all of yesterdays losses back and is up 3 right now. Constellation (CEP)Buckeye LP (BPL), Alliance LP (ARLP) Natural Resource (NRP)and Inergy Holdings (NRGP) are all up 1 or more. Lots of nice fractional gains in Kinder Morgan Partners (KMP), Boardwalk Partners (BWP) Ferrellgas (FGP) Martin Midstream (MMLP) Penn Virginia Holdings (PVG) and many others.

Some ex-distribution stocks are down today like Linn Energy (LINN) Crosstex LP (XTEX) and a few others but nothing more than fractional losses.
RBC repeats its buy on Boardwalk Partners (BWP) and raises its price target from 40 to 42. Weird trading on this one yesterday after earnings where the stock opened flat...dropped 3 points and than rallied back to almost even.

There are falling knives and then there are missles crashing to earth. I would say these examples are the first but might feel like the second. The MLP index yesterday looked like it was staring into the abyss as it was down over 5 points and not rallying with the rest of the market before cutting its losses to -3 by days end. Now one good sign for the overall market is that big selloffs have usually run their course when they get around to selling us and with stock futures strong this morning i would expect MLPS to move up today. And while the chart of the index isn't exactly inspiring we did not take out that 320 floor so there is hope here.

There was one stock probably responsible for this yesterday and that was Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) which was down well over 4 points. Energy Transfer Equity (ETE) was down about a point and a half.

Both stocks have had fabulous runs. Energy Transfer (both) continue to react to the FERC charges of market manipulation and the prospect for a triple digit million dollar fine. And you can expect more selling today as UBS securities cuts both stocks to reduce from neutral. You don't see recommendations to "reduce" (reduce for those of you not familiar with brokerage doublespeak means sell) in this group too often. And while that probably means that the bulk of the selling may have already occured I will be staying away from these 2 other than for a day trade until all this FERC stuff gets settled.

Earnings are out this morning from Holly Partners (HEP) which look quite good on face value. Revenues were up 50%. and profit more than tripled! No other corporate developements this morning and so far no other upgrades or downgrades.

The Energy complex is higher this morning and Natural gas leading the way up 13 cents after yesterdays nice move. The tropics are heating up with a depression approaching Bermuda and a potential depression approaching the Carribbean. This seems to be reminding the market place that the real hurricane season begins now. Stock futures are very strong and the Dow looks to open 100 points higher. We should move higher today Energy Transfer not withstanding.

Monday, July 30, 2007

Energy Transfer Partners holders can read about the FERC case here. Other related links provided here. Much to read and digest.

Losses cut to less than 3 points on the index at the close. Waiting for after market headlines.
MLP index making a run in the last 30 minutes as it is finally cutting its losses...down just 3 after being off over 5 at the low.
Looks like Energy Transfer Partners is facing a sizable fine from FERC. Check out the Yahoo message board which is ahead of the game on this and thanks to Carlos for pointing this out to me! The man keeps me honest!

MLPS continue to suffer in here today as the rest of the market is turning. The dow is up 70 points. Since i trade some of these i have to tell you this has been one crazy day as issues are down 2 points one minute and flat the next. Check out Boardwalk Partners (BWP) as a good for instance...or Linn Energy and Legacy which opened up over 1 point each and then sold to unch or even below the flat line. Constellation Energy (CEP) is today's big winner up 2 points.
Not sure what is happening but the MLP index is down over 5 and Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) is down over 4 points. Volume approaching 1 million shares. Looks like somebody is throwing this one out the window.
The MLP index is down over 4 points and has been down since the open. My usual rule is when they get around to selling us is usually at the end of a broad market sell off..we'll see if that means a solid up close today for the market overall. Meanwhile Energy Transfer Partners (ETP)is down over 3 points today. No news but over 600k shares have traded. EV Partners i(EVEP)s down nearly 2. Plains All American(PAA) Energy Transfer Equity(ETE) and Markwest Hydrocarbon(MWP) all down 1 or more. And the list of fractional losers is a mile long. Boardwalk Partners (BWP) earnings drove the stock down nearly 3 points and then it recovered back to almost even and is now down nearly 1 again.

There were lots of winners early by a point or more but almost all of them have given up the ghost. Calumet (CLMT) remains up 1 and there are a small scattering of fractional winnners.

UNG the etf for natural gas is up over 1 as nat gas rallies back to 6.50ish.
Some breaking news as we have earnings on Nustar (NS) which were very good and a hefty distribution increase for unit holders. And of course what is good for Nustar is also good for Nustar Holdings. Also Wachovia is upping Legacy Reserves (LGCY) to outperform from market perform. Magellan Midstream is investing money to expand one of its pipelines.

Natural gas up nearly 4% to 6.42 this morning. Should mean a nice up open for the UNG.

As a rule i like down opens after big sell off days since that has the chance to wash out all the sellers. Not sure if that means a bottom but for sure the stock market is the tail waggin the mlp dog. The AMZ mlp index is selling off and coming back to the 89 day moving average and i would think we will touch it this morning at the open or perhaps even go through it. 325.83 is the magic number

Then the next level to watch is the 320 level where the last 2 short corrections went to before the last upleg and breakout to 340. The 144 day moving average is way down at 316 and a break to that level in my view would call my prediction of 370 to 400 on the index into serious question. But i will let things playout before calling an end to this fabulous bull run that began last October.

Meanwhile this morning some earnings news on Boardwalk Partners as it reports a nice increase in earnings and it also is raising the distribution by a penny.

Also earnings out this morning for Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP ) and Alliance Resource Holdings (AHGP). And we have distribution increases for those 2. Enterprise Holdings posts its numbers
and it continues to just move along although distributable cash flow is 1.0 times which i is borderline in my view. You would like to see it a little higher but you have look for distortions and Dan Duncan always seems to know what he is doing. Nothing on the upgrade downgrade list so far this morning.

The energy complex is down this morning with the exception of Natural gas which is rallying 16 cents as of 8:38 so UNG will open up at least 1 dollar this morning. Chart looks like its sold out so looking for a rally back at least to 44 where the 34 day moving average line sits right now.

While i've been writing my post stock futures have continued to strengthen so it looks like an up open now. Let see how they handle it.

Sunday, July 29, 2007

Asia seems to be holding up very well in all of this...losses are contained and some markets like China are actually trading higher so at least so far there is no worldwide contagion underway. Stock futures are higher by a couple of points as of 9:32pm. Crude oil is a little lower. Natural gas is about 6 cents higher. No corporate headlines of note so far.
At 8pm we have a 2 point gain in stock futures and nat gas is up just under 8 cents.
Its early but the opening ticks on the S&P Futures are higher by about a point. At least no early collapse but lets see what happens as the evening progresses. Oil is down 33 cents in early trade while nat gas is higher by 6 cents.
Just to let everybody know...given the market situation for monday morning i will be monitoring the electronic futures market which starts trading at 6pm this evening eastern time. You can access quotes by scrolling down to the second set of blogs and click on any of the futures links. The quotes are delayed by 30 minutes but at least we'll have some early indications. Also should any headlines break on WSJ or elsewhere i will post on those as well. Should be a fascinating open Monday morning.

Friday, July 27, 2007

Dow clawing back...just minus 50 now and MLPS also coming off their lows. Regency (RGNC) is up 2 after doing their offering. Somebody wants their stock! Gainers list is picking up. Constellation Partners (CEP) is up 1. And there are more stocks showing fractional gains.

Last hour should prove interesting.
Some news this afternoon..Atlas Pipeline Partners(APL) completes its purchase from had been delayed 2 weeks ago but all problems were solved. It also repeated guidance regarding future distributions. Also Penn Virginia Holdings(PVG) announces an increase in its distribution. Magellan Midstream Partners (MMP)boosts its distribution and so does Magellan Midstream Holdings (MGG).

The MLP index is down 4 points but its off the lows and remember there are ex-distributions in here today distorting the selloff.

Markets are well off their lows with the dow down (just) 92 points. Energy is rallying and Natural gas is back over 6 dollars. Could be the bottom is in?
I'm guessing that Europe is dumping before they close for the day. Once they close we may take em back. MLPS are 4 points lower. There are quite a few x-distributions today so bear that in mind as that has not been factored out of the price. Regency (RGNC) and Holly Partners (HEP) lead the list of winners up about 1 each.
What ever they did not throw out the window yesterday we're seeing them do it at the open today. The MLP index opens down 4.50. The question becomes whether they are done in here and start to take em back higher. Energy Transfer (ETP) and Oneok LP (OKS) are both down 2 points. 1 point minus or more in Markwest Hydrocarbon (MWP) Atlas Resources (ATN) Duke Midstream (DPM), Teppco (TPP) and Martin Midstream (MMLP)

A few winners this morning with K-Sea (KSP) and Nustar (NS) both up 1 point or more. Eagle Rock (EROC) is a strong fractional winner as is Trans Montaigne (TLP).

Lets see if they stablize in here and try to rally em back. I like down opens better than up ones in these big selloff enviornments.
Looks like they priced the Regency (RGNC)Stock offering around 31.90. Also stock futures have come all the way back to the flat line after falling 12 points on the S&P.
Btw it happened yesterday and its happening again this morning but as stock futures sold off in the last hour so did the energy markets. Could mean nothing. 10 year down to 4.75%. MLPS should benefit from this.
Stock futures getting hammered again this morning. S&P futures dropped from plus 5 to minus 12 since 7am. Off the lows right now. The 10 year is at 4.76%. I like down opens to wash things out rather than an up open which gets sold into. Regency Partners (RGNC) announces its distribution for the quarter.

That last hour saved MLPS as the index was down nearly 7 points but got back 2 1/2 points to close 4 1/2 lower.

When the overall markets are in turmoil we are no exception and will move with everything else up to a point. And then they seperate the stars from the dogs and things slowly get back to normal. I would expect the bounce to continue today and that 4.80% 10 year yield at least keeps the MLP yield 10 year spread a little wider and more attractive. Meanwhile earnings and distribution increases continue to roll in. Buckeye Partners reported numbers last night along with a distribution increase. Buckeye Holdings also bumped up its distribution to an even dollar annual. Williams Partners (WPZ) gives us a nice distribution boost as well. And Terra Nitrogen (TNH) was up 5 dollars yesterday as it announced a 3.00 distribution for the quarter along with very good earnings.

Meanwhile yesterday Energy Transfer Partners denied that it was manipulating the gas market and confirmed that legal action is underway. Here is a quote from the press release.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission ("CFTC") have commenced legal proceedings against ETP. FERC claims that ETP should have obtained higher prices for its monthly physical gas sold at Houston Ship Channel primarily during the fall of 2005 following dislocations in the market arising from Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. The CFTC does not allege that ETP had any actual effect on prices or harmed either the natural gas market or any of its participants, but rather that ETP made an attempt to affect prices.

So basically they are being accused of not getting a higher price for their gas and that they did not affect prices but that they tried to. Normally energy companies are accused of keeping prices high.

Back to this morning we have no upgrades or downgrades on the list so far but the morning is early. The energy complex is up this morning. So sit back and wait for what should be another fascinating day.

Thursday, July 26, 2007

Market rallying back. MLPS are coming off their lows and a few of them have actually have gone above water. The MLP index dropped to at 331.
Ugly out there and getting uglier. 329.69 on the MLP index and down nearly 7. Dow down 351 points. You know its bad when Ford is up.
Well i guess it was a good morning to spend at the beach. The dow is down 300 plus points and the MLP index is down 6 to 330. Lets start by getting the up MLPS out of the way. Calumet Specialty Products (CLMT) is up 35 cents and Regency Partners (RGNC) is up a few pennies and thats it. 2 up 65 down. And some of the losers are down amounts you don't usually see in this group. Alliance Resource (ARLP) is down 3. Penn Virginia Holdings (PVR) Natural Resource (NRP) Hiland Holdings (HPGP) Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) Atlas Holdings (AHD) Holly Partners (HEP) and EV Partners (EVEP) all down 2 or more. And the list of 1 point minuses is a mile long.

If you were looking for bargains there are a lot out there cheaper today than yesterday.
Inergy LP boosts its distribution once again. They do it every quarter! 23 in a row! Also Inergy Holdings boosts by 3 cents.
Stock Futures are in free fall this morning. S&P futures down nearly 20 points and dow futures down 125. Is 77 dollar oil the reason? 10 year flight to quality at 4.86%. Watch to see if a flight to quality rally developes. Remember folks...we got yield!
Its Dan Duncan Day so we now have earnings out from Teppco.

Some news this morning as we have earnigns results from Enterprise Products Partners (EPD) and also earnings from Duncan Partners. Numbers look good for both. Dan Duncan as we know has a hand in both. Also we have a stronger energy complex this morning as crude oil sits just under 77 dollars which is 4 dollars above where we were at this time yesterday.Even Natural gas found a floor yesterday at 5.75 and is sitting up 4 cents at 5.97. So we have a strong backdrop in energy. The 10 year this morning is sitting at 4.89% which is positive for us. Stock futures are lower this morning.

Nothing on the upgrade downgrade list but it is very early in the morning. I am heading to the beach this morning so I will be posting breaking headlines until 8am eastern time and then i'll be back aound lunchtime. Meanwhile John Edwards wants to raise capital gains taxes. Why don't democrats just come out for a complete confisciatory tax system and be done with it?

Meanwhile its Summer in Saratoga and my favorite horse Street Sense is running Sunday in the Jim Dandy as a prep to the Travers. 4 stakes races today on the card. Time to make money!

Wednesday, July 25, 2007

Off the lows and off the highs....downside finish on the index but prices were firming in the final hour. News on Duke Midstream as they boost their distribution by a nice margin. Teppco is expanding their Jonah project. Earnings and conference call tomorrow. E V Partners (EVEP) is boosting their payout by over 8%. More news when it breaks. Natgas closed higher at 5.95 and crude jumped 2 dollars.
The MLP index is down 2 points right now. Very strange day here as only a handfull of issues are up and those that are up showing gains in small fractions. Lots of 1 point plus losers as the MLPS mentioned before are on that list and we can now add EV Partners (EVEP), Holly Partners (HEP) and Hiland Holdings.(HPGP). Hiland LP (HLND) announced a distribution increase which is why the stock has had a nice run from 55 to 60 lately

Nat gas ran back to 6 bucks and looking to see if we can close above it in the last hour of trading there. Hurricane center mum on its 10:30 am tropical storm developement expected in the next 48hrs. But disturbed weather continues in the southwest gulf of mexico.
All over the place today and its hard to figure just exactly what is going on. The energy complex has turned higher including natural gas believe it or not. Then there is the stock market volitility which had em up then down then up then down and now up again. 10 year rates are falling. And then we seem to have selling in some MLPS that held up okay yesterday. So who knows where we go this afternoon.

Bigger losers today include Natural Resource (NRP) Tortoise (TYG) Atlas Pipeline Partners (APL), Inergy Holdings (NRGP), Constellation Partners (CEP)...all down 1 point or more. A few winners including Buckeye Partners (BPL) Oneok LP (OKS) and Plains All American (PAA) and they are ahead fractionally. The MLP index is down .70.


Crosstex LP did not raise its distribution last quarter for the first time and that sent the stock down from 40 to 34. It has been rallying latley on the idea that distribution increases would resume and indeed they have increased the distribution on the LP (XTEX) by a penny. Now its only a penny but the increase may have come sooner than forecast so it might be viewed well by the marketplace. Also the dividend on Crosstex (XTXI) goes up by a penny as well.

Also we have earnigns last night from Sunoco Logistics along with a distribution announcement. So the news backdrop is good this morning for MLPS.

Meanwhile natural gas continues drop another dime this morning or 2% to 5.77. I will point out that one widely used computer model is spinning up some sort of tropical system in the Western Gulf of Mexico in the next 84 hours along with something just east of the Bahamas

Now whether it happens or not remains to be seen but i will monitor the forecast models carefully.Whether this will be enough to stem the selloff remains to be seen. Gas as i type is coming off its morning lows and is down 7 cents around 5.80. At some point this has to rally (i hope)

No upgrades or downgrades to speak of. Stock futures are stronger and 10 year rates are holding at 4.94%.

Tuesday, July 24, 2007

Selling off in the last hour. The MLP index is down 2 and the list of winners continues to shrink as only 12 LPS or GPS remain higher. Both Hilands (HLND,HPGP) are up 75 cents apiece. The distribution had better be increased in these 2 otherwise there is alot of air in their prices.

Dow down 172 and at the lows of the is everything else.
Well considering today is going...the MLP index is down 1 and change...not bad with the XOI down 40+pts or 3% and the XNG down 3% or 15 points. Still the losers list is growing a bit and winners are paring their gains somewhat. Nat gas dropped to 5.80 and is back to near 5.90. Is it the bottom? I will say this. I heard someone on CNBC say that traders in the natgas market were selling because of the lack of hurricane activity. Well anyone who was long natgas on the idea that a major hurricane was going to be in the gulf of mexico during the month of July deserves to lose money. Statistically July 1-20 is one of the least active periods historically...and even less active than the month of June. Its only a matter of time before something happens in the atlantic basin and i think hurricane activity has been factored out of prices.

Peter Eliades is on CNBC predicting the end of the world...or something! Broken clocks as always are right twice a day...useless the rest of the time.
Falling energy prices are driving big energy prices lower on the oil and gas side and MLPS are actually holding up okay although the index is down .80 or 1/4% and trading in the 338 area. One point plus losers in Regency (RGNC) on the stock offering announced last night. Penn Virginia Holdings (PVG) is down 1 and change as well. Atlas Resources (ATN) Atlas Holdings (AHD) and Markwest Hydrocarbon (MWP) all one point losers. Fractional losses in Legacy Holdings (LGCY), Energy Transfer Partners (ETP), Spectra Energy (SEP) and a few others.

On the winning side Hiland Holdings(HPGP) is at 41 and up 1. Hiland Partners (HLND) is up nearly one. Global Partners (GLP) is up almost 1 on its distribution hike. The rest of the winners list is small with most gains under 25 cents.

From a corporate standpoint this morning we have breaking news from Buckeye Partners (BPL) which is buying another storage facility. Also this morning Global Partners is hiking its distribution. Otherwise isn't much going on. Stock futures are selling off this morning on the subprime Countrywide Credit news among other things. We're also seeing a sell off this morning in the entire energy complex with oil down a dollar and natural gas has decisively broken below the 6 dollar mark and sits down 18 cents at 5.85. I have been building a position in the UNG ETF since friday and i have room to add some more today. But its been straight down from 8 dollars and i would think this has to bottom soon. But the chart does look ugly.

No hurricanes in the Atlantic basin and nothing that looks like its going to develope anytime soon. But they will come eventually.

So i would think that all the headwinds are going to mean a lower open for MLPS. The 10 year sits at 4.95% and we'll be watching for any sign of a flight to quality as MLPs will benefit from that. No upgrades or downgrades on the list this morning. We're getting closer to the big round of ex-distributions that will occur beginning late this week and taking us into August.

Monday, July 23, 2007

Sorry for the lack of posts today but i was hosting a barbeque for some friends and frankly i'm exhausted! Nat gas now has a 5 handle in after hours at 5.995. I continue to stagger into UNG today and have now built a position again. Here is hoping for a rally.

Meanwhile MLPS closed mostly lower as the index closed down 1.07 following the nat gas lead and its seems that mlps that are concentrated in nat gas took harder hits than others. After the close Buckeye Partners CFO resigns and a new one is announced. Regency Partners (RGNC) announces a rather large offering of stock. Kinder Morgan Partners (KMP) is expanding its Vegas Pipeline.

I'll be back to normal blogging tomorrow.

No deals on the board this morning for any MLPS but we do have a few things going on. Some board room changes at Enterprise (EPD,EPE) and we have Martin Midstream (MMLP) boosting its payout by 2 cents. Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) secures a new round of credit. No idea what they are going to do with it but if past is prologue they are not going to stand still with it. RBC Capital Markets is upgrading Eagle Rock Partners (EROC) to buy from market perform following Raymond James move last Thursday. Natural gas meanwhile is down nearly 30 cents this morning as there is no heat, no hurricanes and no reason to buy. I am slowly building another trading position here. I'm hoping now we can keep the 6 handle.

No other action this morning so we'll bring on the open.

Friday, July 20, 2007

Those two issues continue to run. Penn Virginia holdings is up 5 dollars and Buckeye Holdings is up nearly 4. No news but something is going on.
I'm not sure what is going on here but Penn Virginia Holdings (PVG) is up 4 news. Buckeye Parnters (BGH) is up 2 and change. Elsewhere the MLP index is up 2/3rds of a point and over 340.

The group is split 50-50 with losers and winners. Plains All American, Martin Midstream, Nustar Holdings are up fractionally. Hiland Holdings is down .75 as the biggest loser.

If any news breaks i will post.

Well if you can't decide which MLP to own you can now own them all with the new MLP index ETN (EXCHANGE TRADED NOTE). Note that for tax purposes instead of getting a k-1 you will get a 1099 as the distributions will be treated as ordinary income. Still for trading purposes it makes life alot simpler and for those of you who argue that MLPS should not be in an IRA (i have disagreed with this statement) you now can put this in an ira! The symbol is BSR and will trade on the NYSE. I am not sure what the price ratio will be relative to the index.
Some breaking news this morning as Willams Corp is forming a new MLP seperate from Willams Partners (WPZ) and it will encompass its gas assets. Also natural gas has turned lower by 10 cents.

Thursday, July 19, 2007



Somehow i think he has the right attitude for a summertime Friday. Still we have some potential news to move some issues today. First off Plains All American came out a distribution boost. Linn Energy told us they would and now they have as they boost their distribution to 57 cents this quarter and they also remind us that they are going to 63 cents by the fourth quarter. Stock now yields 6.12% and probably has some upside to it. 40 bucks gives us a 5.7% yield which would be par for an mlp growing its distribution. Also raising its dstribution is Markwest Energy Unitholders should be happy across the board.

This morning oil is kissing 76 bucks and Natural gas is up 3 cents after yesterdays big rally and sits near 6.75. The 10 year is holding just above 5%. So we have a decent backdrop and with everybody selling Google this morning (down 40 bucks in the pre-market) we can quietly go about our business! The MLP index is sitting just under an alltime high close as it has been consolidating around 340.

Hurricane season doesn't really get going until August usually and right now it remains quiet although there is disturbed weather just north of the islands. Based on what is going on atmospherically; even if this developes into something i don't believe this would head into the Gulf of Mexico.
Honest to God it should be against the law for these congressional windbags to be allowed to speak...(accept for Jim Bunning who gets to the point)...that said the MLP index is flat right now but there are some 1 point plus winners in Global Partners (GLP) EV Partners (EVEP), Holly Partners (HEP), Constellation Partners (CEP) and Terra Nitrogen (TNH)

Natural Resource (NRP) is down 84 cents and is the biggest loser but most other losers are just shedding small fractions and nothing news driven. Kinder Morgan(KMP) is flat on its earnings and distribution increase.

Scroll down to last nights post for lots of after the close news on a number of issues that increased their distributions and earnings on Kinder Morgan Partners (KMP) and that of course has Billy Joe concerned on the yahoo message board. He has been arguing that Kinder Morgan Partners (KMP) is enron redux. He has been arguing this for quite a long time. Fun reading.

Nothing new on the news front this morning and there are now upgrades or downgrades. So i'll repost after the open.

Wednesday, July 18, 2007

Natural Resource Partners boosts its distribution by a penny!
News after the close. Kinder Morgan Partners (KMP) comes out with earnings and increases its distribution by 2 cents. Billy joe on the the YAHOO KMP BOARD is probably disecting the earnings and will soon tell us that the fraud continues and that a collapse is imminent! Also Copano Energy (CPNO) boosts its distribution...Legacy Reserves (LGCY) does the same by a penny. Semgroup Energy Partners priced its ipo last night at 22 bucks which was above the range and began trading today...closing at 29.

The MLP index closed up .39 and sits just under 340. Natual gas rallied to 6.527 at the close and is up another 5 cents in electronic trading. Sold my UNG this afternoon at a profit making it 4 for 4. Inventory numbers are out tomorrow and if they sell em down in reaction to them i may re-enter.
Lots of big gainers today. Penn Virginia Holdings (PVG) is up 2 and change as is EV Partners (EVEP). Duke Midstream (DPM) Atlas Holdings (AHD), Global Partners (GLP), Martin Midstream (MMLP) and Holly Partners (HEP) all up 1 or more. Market not falling apart and energy stocks are strong. Raymond James upgrades Eagle Rock (EROC) to buy from hold....stock is up 36 cents.
The weight of falling ten year rates and rising energy is offsetting the sell off in stocks. The dow is down over 110 pts but the MLP index which was down 1 earlier has been sitting near unchanged for the last hour and a half. EV Partners is up 1.59 as the biggest winner on its asset purchase. Duke Midstream(DPM), Buckeye Holdings(BGH), and Martin Midstream (MMLP) all up a point or more. Eagle Rock (EROC), Terra Nitrogen (TNH) Alliance Holdings (AHGP), Teppco (TPP) and Holly Partners (HEP) all up fractionally.

Downside major fractions in Plains All American(PAA) Natural Resource (NRP) Constellation (CEP) Genesis (GEL), Enbridge Energy Partners (EEP) and Sunoco Logistics (SXL) among others.

We'll see if the market selloff accelerates and if that takes its toll on energy which is solidly higher.

We have some deal news this morning on E V Partners(EVEP) which had been trading over 40 dollars recently and now we know why. The company is making an asset purchase that is immediately accretive and will bring another boost in the distribution by the forth quarter but the company does not say by how much. Still it will be a mover today. Chart shows this stock is breakout out and beginning another upleg.

In distribution news Enterprise Products Partners (EPD) and holdings (EPE) announced boosts in their distribution. Also last night Oneok Partners (OKS) boosts their distribution to an even dollar from 99 cents. Btw leftover from last Friday was Teppco (TPP) which announced its distribution.

Later today we will get earnings from Kinder Morgan Partners (KMP) due out after the close. And others will follow tomorrow and Friday. Subprime is the focus this morning by the market which is driving the 10 year rate down to 5.03%. Also the last few days its been tech tech tech and Intel will probably drive some money out of there this morning so we benefit today from firm energy and a flight to quality. Nat gas is up 8 cents, crude is higher by 23 cents and sitting around 74 bucks. No upgrades or downgrades so far but the morning is young.

Still long the UNG ETF and the volitility has been great as long as you time the buys and sells with the moves in nat gas. 6.30 held yet again yesterday after dropping from 6.50 to 6.24. Its up 7 cents in electronic trading this morning. Looking for some upside today.

Tuesday, July 17, 2007

Insider buying in Linn Energy reported today and these are open market purchases. This purchase by the same insider was made yesterday. Bullish when they are open market purchases.
Everybody's attention seems to be focused on dow 14k so we are sitting down a small fraction on the MLP index and really marking time. Holly Partners (HEP) is up 1. Hiland LP (HLND) is up nearly 1 as is Buckeye Holdings (BGH). Strong fractional gains in Crosstex LP (XTEX), Penn Virginia Holdings (PVG), Breitburn (BBEP) and Amerigas (APU).

Sunoco Logistics (SXL), Calumet (CLMT) and Markwest are fractional losers but most of the minus signs today are small fractions.

Natgas continues to struggle around the 6.30 level. Frustrating after being up to 6.50 this morning.

Quiet on the MLP front this morning after yesterday's sell off (if you can call a 1/3 % selloff a selloff) but nonetheless it was a lower close but we're just a handful of ticks from new all time highs anyway. And while there is no news nor do we have any upgrades or downgrades earnings and distribution announcements will be coming over the next 2 weeks. Distribution growth is key to more upside. Also two of last quarters underperformers Crosstex LP(XTEX) and Hiland LP (HLND) are acting now as if they will be raising their distributions after missing last quarter. Both have rallied nicely. In fact Hiland was at 57 when it did not hike last time and its now near 59 while Crosstex LP has broken out over 37. They both better follow through and either raise or announce when increases will resume or there is alot of air in the prices of both. And btw i am long Crosstex LP (XTEX) in the interests of disclosure...I've have sold my Hiland LP (HLND) in this recent rally.

Energy complex is higher as oil is at 75 bucks. Natural Gas is up 11 cents right now and gasoline which dropped nearly 10 cents yesterday is up slightly. 10 year is up a few ticks on yield but nothing damaging and stock futures are higher.

Stand by for the open.

Monday, July 16, 2007

The mlp index has turned lower down 1.30 as the sell off in energy stocks seems to be spreading out while the 10 year rate drops to 5.06%. The loser's list is getting a little longer this afternoon. Buckeye (BPL) Magellan Midstream (MMLP) Calumet (CLMT),Breitburn, Nustar (NS) are all showing fractional losses of 40 cents or more....adding to the losers mentioned earlier.

Eagle Rock (EROC) initially did not sell off on the news of its CFO being in an accident. But now its down 64 cents.
Lunchtime and the dow is making run for 14k and MLPs are mixed. The index is down just .20 and has been in a tight range. Still there are some nice winners today. Constellation Partners (CEP) is up 2 to 45. Buckeye Holdings (BGH) Atlas Resource (ATN) and Markwest Hydrocarbon (MWP) are all up 1 and a few pennies. E V Partners (EVEP) Crosstex LP (XTEX) Global Partners (GLP) are all fractional winners.

Nustar Holdings (NSH) is fractionally lower along with Hiland (HLND) Martin Midstream (MMLP) and Kinder Morgan (KMP), that one probably the drag on the mlp index.

There seems to be a firm feel to the group going into the afternoon. No additional breaking news.

Its Monday morning boys and girls and we begin with 2 good looking charts and MLPs at new all time highs as measured by the AMZ MLP index. Both charts have broken out again and i think we will head to 370-400 on this new upleg.

Leftover last Friday but it kicks off what should be a series of solid distribution increases Calumet Specialty Products ups its distribution by 3 cents or 5%. Calumet has been lagging other MLPs in the last quarter but this happens as they seem to rotate ouot of some mlps and move into others. RBC Capital Markets keeps Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) at a buy but lowers its price target by a dollar from 64 to 63.

The energy complex is mixed this morning with crude flat to slightly lower. Natural gas is down 21 cents this morning which means i may get another shot here assuming the 6.40 level holds on this retest. Friday's rally made me 3 for 3 in my nat gas trades. I may shoot for 4!

Eagle Rock (EROC) has some sad news this morning regarding its CFO who was injured in an accident. Its not a good thing to hear news like this and we wish him a quick and speedy recovery. Whether it has impact on the stock price it should be temporary if any at all.

Friday, July 13, 2007

Been trading that nat gas etf today to profits which is nice. MLPS playing a bit of catch up today. The index is up just under 1 point. Constellation Energy (CEP) is today's big winner on their asset purchase up 2 and change. Tortoise (TYG) on the downgrade is down 1 and change. Most mlps are flat to fractionally higher.

That pretty much sums up yesterday where the MLP index closed at a new all time high just under 341 and higher by just under 1 point. This is not unusual really. Many times when the market rallies big all the interest goes into all the obvious stuff and we just sit around and mark time. We may play a little catch up this morning as there should be followthrough buying in the overall market.

There really isn't much to trade on this morning as there are no corporate developements. Crude oil is up this morning and Natural Gas is rallying up 12 cents in electronic trading and is back over 6.60. Yesterday's action was bullish as they took em down on bearish news and then reversed and closed near the high of the day. So my nat gas play yesterday may turn nicely profitable today. We'll see. But i think that we hit bottom yesterday and we should get back to a 7 handle on gas soon.

In upgrades and downgrades this morning Tortoise Energy Infrastructure (TYG) which is an mlp trust was downgraded from buy to neutral by Ferris Baker Watts. Nothing else on the list.

In horse racing news my horse Hallie's Charm goes 1 mile on the grass in this afternoons 9th race at Monmouth Park...10-1 morning line. My new horse Farleyshellonwheels runs next thursday at monmouth. No guarantees of course but i will be watching from home today since i have no desire to sit in weekend getaway traffic.

I now stand corrected as Constellation Partners (CEP) announces a big deal that should move the stock higher.

Thursday, July 12, 2007

Well my nat gas trade has not worked out so far. I still think if they can hold 6.40 they could mount a rally in the last hour. We'll see.

Meanwhile (yawn) more all time highs. The mlp index is off its high but still up .75 right now. Eagle Rock us up 2 dollars and off its high. Lots of strong fractional gains on the board as well. Legacy (LGCY) is up a whopping 10 cents on its deal.

Looks like 6.44 is holding on nat gas and i am actually in the money on some shares. Here is hoping.

Late last evening Legacy Reserves (LGCY) announed a 20 million dollar purchase that will be immediately accretive and could result in a higher distribution although they did not say by how much. Then early this morning Eagle Rock (EROC) announced a larger deal and they increase there free cash flow guidance significantly. Both stocks should be market movers on their specific news.

This morning we have nothing on the upgrade downgrade list. S&P futures are stronger. The energy complex is strong this morning except for natural gas which is down 8 cents in pre market electronic trading. 10 year rates are flat around 5.08%.

Speaking of nat gas I sold out my nat gas trade yesterday morning before the selloff and right near the top. Then the selloff came and the UNG-EFT dropped to 42.35 from 43.98. So near the close i bought a few shares and will buy a few more this morning ahead of the nat gas data at 10:30am. I am guessing they are selling ahead of the numbers and unless the numbers are truly a disaster i am betting that nat gas will turn around a rally. This is a high risk gamble but so far i am 2 for 2 here.

Wednesday, July 11, 2007

The mlp index broke through the 340 level and is sitting right on it as lunch is underway. News related movers, Atlas Pipeline Partners (APL) and Atlas Holdings (AHD) initial took some selling on the delay of the Anandarko purchase but they both are well off their lows with just fractional losses. Energy Transfer Partners (ETP)and Energy Transfer Equity (ETE) are fractional losers on last nights earnings news.

Global Partners(GLP) and Constellation Partners (CEP) are up a point apiece as the biggest winners. Lots of fractional winners on the board in many issues. Losers today include Suburban Propane (SPH) and Ferrellgas (FGP) both losing major fractions. Other losers were generally shedding 25 cents or less.

Sold out my nat gas options this morning at a nice profit. Out of UNG as well with a nice piece of change. On the sidelines waiting for another entry point.
Not sure what to make of this but Atlas Pipeline Partners (APL) was supposed to close on its Anandarko deal today but now says it will not be closing today but remains committed to the deal. I'm not sure what to make of this since the company has a history of botching up deals in the past. Watch for reactions. The link above is to the SEC filing which explains that there is some 3rd party issues that need to be resolved.

Actually both Energy Transfer Partners(ETP) and Energy Transfer Equity (ETE) start the ball rolling with regards to earnings in our group. Numbers look pretty solid but we'll see whether this is already baked into the cake.

This morning Wachovia starts Copano Energy at market perform. Speaking of which get ready for another sharp open higher in the Natural Gas complex. Its up 11 cents in electronic trading so the UNG ETF will likely open up close to a dollar. Since i am long under 42 and this was a short term trade i'm taking profits this morning. My July 45 calls should open on a double for me so i will be letting those go this morning. Am i leaving money on the table? Probably. But this was a short term play and there will be more opportunities. Weather next week looks hot and humid for most of the east so that may begin to play into this. Ultimately the gas contract should head back to a 7 handle. Meanwhile stock futures have sold off since 5am when they were up down 2 on the S&P while the 10 year is down below 5% now. Flight to quality continues on the subprime...we in MLP land stand to benefit from long as the stock market selloff does not get out of hand. The index sits just under 340 in breakout land and at new all time highs. Until proven otherwise the path of least resistence is higher. I use this phrase if only to annoy a certain person!

BTW with the prospects of earnings and distributions watch Crosstex (XTEX),(XTXI) and Hiland LP (HLND). Both companies did not raise their distributions last quarter for one reason or another. These stocks have been on a slow climb with the rest of the group and if they indicate that their distribution increases will resume soon or if in fact they raise their payouts when they announce next week then we could see nice runs in these 2 issues. However if they still indicate problems and distributions remain static, then we could see several points come off and another quarter of underperformance.

Note the chart above how much the MLP index has outperformed the S&P. Hiland LP has held up pretty well against the market but below other MLPS in the last 6 months. Crosstex has lagged everybody but at least the 2 distributions in this stretch makes it a little better.

Since i started blogging Natgas is now up 16 cents while stock futures continue to weaken. See you at the as it breaks.

Tuesday, July 10, 2007

Flight to quality as the MLP index is now over 339 and up 1.64 and at the high for the day. The overall stock market selloff is driving money into our group. 10 year rates are collapsing to 5.04 today from 5.15 yesterday. The energy complex is up. Natural gas closed up 30 cents and the UNG etf is up nearly 2 dollars today! Nice move.

Lots of fractional winners in the group. Oneok LP (OKS) is up 99 cents and is the biggest winner. Terra Nitrogen is down nearly 7 dollars as the biggest loser. Penn Virginia Holdings (PVG) is down nearly 1 if you put TNH in a world of its own.
Somebody took issue with my "path of least resistence" view on MLPS. Oh well.

Meanwhile that particular path remains higher for MLPS as they are up over 1 point on the index. A few issues on the losers list. We have Nustar Holdings (NSH),Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) and Penn Virginia Holdings (PVG). Lots of fractional winners on the board including Breitburn (BBEP) Williams (WPZ) which rallied 1 as i blog. Sunoco Logistics (SXL), Atlas Pipeline(APL), Markwest (MWE) and Copano (CPNO) all up major fractions.

Meanwhile nat gas has broken out above the 6.60 level and that has the UNG ETF up to 42.55 and up 1 and change on the day.

Okay lets deal with the last item first. Natural gas is up 14 cents this morning as that 6.40 level is holding but i need it to take out 6.60 convincingly. I am still long here on the UNG ETF along with some July 45 calls. Fasten your seatbelts.

Meanwhile FBR (Friedman Billings Ramsey...all three!) downgrade Natural Resource (NRP) from outperform to market perform. Natural Resource has moved into the lower 40s from the mid 30s....nice move in the last week or 2. Global Partners is buying two terminals from Exxon.

This morning we have weak stock futures and rates are falling this morning as subprime continues to bleed into the market. 10 year falls to 5.07%. Crude is flat but nat gas is higher for now. The mlp index starts the day at a new all time high. We'll probably see some selling at the open and then we'll look around and evaluate. Path of least resistance is higher.

Monday, July 09, 2007

Holding that 338 level as we head into the close. Looks like the breakout on the charts is real and not a fakeout so we are at the beginning of another leg up here. Nat gas closed down on the day but the nat gas stocks are up so i'm still betting that the gas will turn higher and i will profit on my UNG trade. As per mlps some nice moves today. Nice to see both Crosstex Energy stocks (XTXI,XTEX) up today. Also Calumet which has done nothing these last few weeks is up nearly 2 dollars today.

Closing firm..should bode well for tomorrow.
We're up 1.75 and over 338 right now as 10 year rates are behaving. Natural Resource Partners is up 1.55 as the biggest winner. Atlas Resources (ATN), Williams (WPZ), Calumet (CLMT) Sunoco Logistics (SXL) all up 1 or more. Up nearly 1 are Buckeye (BPL), and Hiland Holdings (HPGP). Fractional gains in Crosstex (XTXI),Atlas Holdings(AHD) Nustar (NS),Duke Midstream (DPM), Inergy (NRGY) and a few others.

On the downside...Gensis (GEL) is down .70 as the biggest loser. Inergy GP (NRGP), Linn Energy (LINE), Oneok LP (OKS) and a few others down small fractions. Linn announced some hedging with Dominion on its recent deal.

Since i blogged Friday about a natural gas trade i thought i'd start the day with what has happened to the 2 commodities in the last few weeks. Crude oil has broken out above 70 dollars and sits over 72 this morning. Meanwhile in mid June natural gas has diverged and went the other way...its down from $8.20 in early June to Friday's low of $6.40.

The decline in my view has taken out all the weather premium whether it be from heatwaves to hurricanes. Gas is up 2 cents this morning. I built a position in the US Natural Gas ETF (UNG) which follows the nat gas contract. Its down from 50 to 41. I also bought a bunch of July 45 calls but the timeframe here is very short and i may lose on those. But the first hurricane threat when it comes could drive the NG ETF back to 50 in a hurry. Remember folks this is my personal view and if i'm wrong it could get messy. No guarantees.

Meanwhile mlps start this morning with the AMZ MLP index at a new all time closing high and at the beginning perhaps of another chart breakout. I am looking for today's action to take us either decisiviely above the breakout point or back into the 320-335 trading range.
If this is indeed a breakout and the beginning of another upleg in the bull move that began last October 5.25-5.30% on the 10 year has to hold. If that is the case i think this next upleg will take us to the 370-400 level on the index. But first things first we need to confirm this breakout with some volume today.
The only corporate news this morning comes from Holly Partnes (HEP) which is announcing that it is building a new pipeline. Other than that the crickets are chirping this morning on the news front and there are no upgrades or downgrades so far.

Friday, July 06, 2007

Well the nat gas numbers have taken gas to 6.48 on the news and we are sitting there. So lets see if this is a bottom or "the" bottom. So far the trade is not working. Shows you sometimes the best laid plains of mice and men. But the day ain't over yet.

Meanwhile the MLP index is slighty higher up 35 cents, Atlas Resource (ATN) and Penn Virginia Holdings (PVG) lead the way higher up 1 and change on both. Holly Partners (HEP), Buckeye (BPL) and Genesis (GEL) are fractional winners. None of the winners are being driven by any individual news.

Nothing really stands out on the losing side. Most losses are in the neighborhood of small fractions. Breitburn(BBEP) is down 50 cents as the biggest loser.

We saw the mlp index close yesterday above 336 and that is a new all time high close. Volume is light this week due to the holiday but that can be fixed quickly. Also the index did this yesterday in the face of the 10 year which spiked up to 5.13% and it is sitting at 5.15% ahead of the employment numbers this morning. 5.25% on the 10 year is baked into prices so if that level holds...onward and upward...if it doesn't look for this to be a false breakout. We may actually get that answer this morning at 8:30am

This morning energy prices are higher in the crude and gasoline complex. Natural gas which has been selling off for the last 2 weeks is flat this morning awaiting weekly nat gas numbers at 10:30am. I am guessing here that bearish gas numbers may be priced in so if they come in as expected the market will rally. This happened in the oil market last week before the run over 70 bucks on crude. So i am taking a shot here with the natural gas ETF that trades on the American exchange (UNG).

I built a position yesterday and also bought some call options (july 45 calls). Now lets make it clear i am not recommending anyone do this. I am just telling you this is what i am doing and it is a gamble that all the bearishness is priced in. Longer term you have to wonder whether natural gas has priced out a hurricane premium so when the real season gets underway late this morning or in August that the contract can rally back to 8 or 9 dollars or higher which means the ETF can head back to 50 or so.

No corporate developements and no upgrades or downgrades so far.

Thursday, July 05, 2007

Sorry for the lack of posts today but i worked an overnight/early morning shift and whenever i do my hair hurts and my teeth itch. That being said the MLP index is up 1.02 and a close here puts us at new all time highs and another potential breakout on the charts. Lets see where it closes but we could be at the beginning of another upleg.

At least that's what it feels like this morning. No corporate developements and no upgrades or downgrades so we are at the mercy of the energy markets which are mostly higher. Stock futures are strong. 10 year rates are a little higher from last weeks low at 4.99...this morning at 5.06%. Nothing yet on the upgrade downgrade list. So i guess lets let em rip at the open and re-visit later this morning.

Tuesday, July 03, 2007

Happy Third of July!

Since its a holiday shortened trading day and the market closes at 1pm this will be my one and only post. I also worked the overnight shift last night so i am a little tired. Credit Suisse made some moves today. It starts EV Partners (EVEP) at outperform while it starts Linn Energy (LINE) and Breitburn (BBEP) at a neutral.

The AMZ mlp index is nearing a new all time high close as it trades over 335 right now. Looks like everyone is headed out early so i'll watch the last hour, then take a nap. See you guys on Thursday morning.

Monday, July 02, 2007

Last hour arrives and we should rally and close near the highs of the day. Its always exciting!
Holding on to a 3 point gain here on the index. Linn Energy (LINE) remains up 4. Terra Nitrogen (TNH) is up 2. Global (GLP), Buckeye (BPL)and Constellation Partners (CEP) are all up 1 and a fraction. Enbridge Energy Partners (EEP), Atlas Resource (ATN), Energy Transfer Partners (ETP),Holly Partners (HEP), Breitburn (BBEP), Natural Resource (NRP), Martin Midstream (MMLP) and a whole host of others are up major fractions.

Natural Gas has come well off its lows and had pulled even on the futures contract. UNG has come well off its low. Took profits here at 43.30 for a nice 1 point gain.
MLP index up over 3 bucks right now. Nearing a new all time high!
Linn Energy (LINE) leads the way up nearly 5 dollars on its deal this morning. Oneok LP (OKS) is up over 1 as is Global Partners (GLP) and Constellation Partners (CEP). Buckeye Partners (BPL) is up nearly 1 on the Goldman Upgrade. The MLP index is up 2 and change and sits just under new all time highs. Lots of fractional gains on the board as well.

Some of last quarters bigger winners are down this morning like Buckeye Holdings (BGH) down 1.60 after hitting 33 on Friday. Duke Midstream (DPM) another big winner last quarter is down nearly 1 as is Hiland GP(HPGP). Not many other losers on the list and most on there are down 50 cents or less.

One side note for traders. The natural gas contract trades on the nyse under the symbol UNG. Natural gas is down 20 cents this morning and this unit is down about 8 bucks in the last few weeks as nat gas has sold off. If today is some sort of climatic bottom in nat gas this may be a pure way to play it. It is speculative in nature so be careful. For a very short term trade i have taken a position in this today as it is down nearly 2 bucks but now off its low. Hoping this could rally back quickly from 42 to 44 or 45. No guarantees!!!!
Pre-market developments. Linn Energy (LINE) is up 3.59 in premaket trading. Also Goldman Sachs ups Buckeye Partners (BPL) to a buy from a hold. Also Penn Virginia (PVR) announces a purchase this morning.

There has been some speculation on the yahoo Linn Energy Bulletin Board that a deal was forthcoming but this one announced this morning is pretty big. 2 billion purchase with a priviate placement of securities (no immediate dilution) and the company says the distribution will go to 2.52 minimum in q4. So Linn Energy (LINE) is priced right now to yield 7.6%. At 40 bucks its priced to yield 6.30% which is what the stock yields right now based on Friday's close and a 2.08 distribution. This one should be up at least several points today. Nothing yet has appeared in the premarket.

Also this breaking bulletin on Oneok LP (OKS) as it buys assets from Kinder Morgan(KMP) in a 3o0 million dollar deal. Should move both stocks today.

The new quarter begins this morning and stock futures are stronger. Energy is flat and bond rates are okay; the 10 year is at 5.03%. Nothing has appeared yet in upgrades and downgrades. The MLP index starts the day at 331.76 and sits about 1 percent under a new all time high. Look for upside to start on the bullish backdrop!