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Tuesday, July 31, 2007

FALLING KNIVES AVAILABLE TO CATCH
PLEASE EXERCISE CAUTION!

There are falling knives and then there are missles crashing to earth. I would say these examples are the first but might feel like the second. The MLP index yesterday looked like it was staring into the abyss as it was down over 5 points and not rallying with the rest of the market before cutting its losses to -3 by days end. Now one good sign for the overall market is that big selloffs have usually run their course when they get around to selling us and with stock futures strong this morning i would expect MLPS to move up today. And while the chart of the index isn't exactly inspiring we did not take out that 320 floor so there is hope here.


There was one stock probably responsible for this yesterday and that was Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) which was down well over 4 points. Energy Transfer Equity (ETE) was down about a point and a half.



Both stocks have had fabulous runs. Energy Transfer (both) continue to react to the FERC charges of market manipulation and the prospect for a triple digit million dollar fine. And you can expect more selling today as UBS securities cuts both stocks to reduce from neutral. You don't see recommendations to "reduce" (reduce for those of you not familiar with brokerage doublespeak means sell) in this group too often. And while that probably means that the bulk of the selling may have already occured I will be staying away from these 2 other than for a day trade until all this FERC stuff gets settled.

Earnings are out this morning from Holly Partners (HEP) which look quite good on face value. Revenues were up 50%. and profit more than tripled! No other corporate developements this morning and so far no other upgrades or downgrades.

The Energy complex is higher this morning and Natural gas leading the way up 13 cents after yesterdays nice move. The tropics are heating up with a depression approaching Bermuda and a potential depression approaching the Carribbean. This seems to be reminding the market place that the real hurricane season begins now. Stock futures are very strong and the Dow looks to open 100 points higher. We should move higher today Energy Transfer not withstanding.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

SMith Barney / Citi had a different take on the ETP issue. They reiterated a buy and put a $70 target on the stock...factoring in as much as a $300 million fine... twice the fine recommended. I think we can watch this dip a bit more and load up for a nice run.