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Tuesday, November 20, 2007

Another down day in MLP land but we did finish off the lows again. We're down 12 of the last 14 days including 5 in a row. The selling appears to be exhausting itself and the chart looks like its making a triple bottom with another higher low. But given all the blowups out there i am very cautious about the concept of a bottom. Still we are due a nice up day at some point. God knows when that will be considering every higher open is met with more sellers.



Constellation Energy (CEP) meanwhile is now down for the 12th consecutive day and 14 of the last 15.


This stock is making its 3rd trip down to 31 in the last 5 months. If any MLP is due a bounce this one is...but again i hesitate given the current market conditions.

News after the close as Holly Partners (HEP) is getting assets from Holly Corp (HOC) at a price but they are immediately accretive to cash flow.

This has certainly been a very frustrating time for us since the July top. And you certainly have to feel bad for US Shipping (USS) holders who have seen their shares cut but nearly 60%. The stock dropped another 1.06 to 8.98 today and the yield is a whopping 17% which means to me that a 50% distribution cut is being priced into the stock. It is priced like an in the money call at this point but i think betting on this one is a pure speculative play at best. If you think these things can't go lower ask Stargas Holders (SGU) which saw their units go from 20 to a buck a few years ago and their distribution go to zero. No fun there as the units are at 3.79 today. You can be waiting a long time to get back to the flat line.

Linn Energy (LINE)is yielding 9% and has a going foward yield of 10.3% as share supply is hurting the stock and the feeling that the distribution hike to 2.52 next quarter ain't happening. I'm long this one so i guess we can just sit and wait to see how this plays out.

On the other hand with distributions most of us should be up for the year. Maybe once we get through tax loss selling in December we can have a nice January recovery rally. Hope always springs eternal. More fed eases are coming especially after the fannie and freddy disasters today. Yield spreads on the 10 year have gone from 85 basis points to 250 basis points which is the highest spread since December 2005 which was a bottom for MLPS. Lots to ponder in the days ahead.

But tomorrow is another day. Thursday is Thanksgiving. Friday is a semi-holiday so lets remember that we have much to be thankful for in our lives!

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