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Tuesday, October 04, 2005



Good morning.
First off sorry about yesterday. Running around Manhattan all day is not always fun and on top of that i had a head cold. But things are getting back to normal and i'm better today.

Not that i missed much yesterday in the land of MLPS. Up a little..down a little. A couple of notes. The ten year note yeild is back up to near 4.40%. Chart above is the 10 year note price and notice the downtrend. Looks like we may be near another leg down in price...up in yield. I would worry about impact if we get above 4.75%. Yields on most MLPS have been inching higher on a relative basis. Distribution increases may be offsetting some of the rate pressure. Perhaps thats why these stocks have for the most part been going sideways since July.

Also note the other chart posted is the Crude/oil 10year which is one of my personal favorites. Note that the relationship of rising crude/falling yields may have been broken at least short term. Rising crude..falling yields would imply economic pressure being caused by high energy prices (recession). The oppposite implies upward pressure on prices (inflation). Trading focus short term seems to have shifted to the latter. But these things are very fluid.

No corporate news to speak of this morning although from yesterday Sunoco Logistics said things are getting back to normal from rita. One important note however is that another big merger in the energy field with Chesapeake Energy buying Columbia. This comes after a big merger on Monday of NRG buying Texas Genco. Mergers in energy are probably going to pick up steam in the 4th quarter so don't be to surprised to see something break among MLPS.

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