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Thursday, July 20, 2006



Good Morning...and after a day like yesterday for MLPS of course it is a good morning.

And we begin this morning with the charts above of Copano Energy (CPNO) and Oneok LP (OKS) formerly known as Northern Borders Partners. Both are perfect examples of buying high and selling higher and both have been constructing a nice sideways pattern on the verge of upside breakouts. Now the possible catylist for more upside. Oneok LP announced a large distribution increase after the close yesterday...now at $3.80 annual or 7.45% on 51 dollars. And Copano Energy also announced a hefty 7 cent increase in its distribution to $2.70 annual or 5.56% on 48.50. So which is the better buy? I think both are great buys since in the case of MLPS and as our dear friend "chart" has pointed out...past performance is really the only indicator we have of possible future performance. And the fact is Copano has been raising its distribution agressively and there is no reason to believe this will stop as of this quarter. It has the lower yield so the market is telling you its getting a higher price relative to yield since it is a proven grower.

Oneok LP (OKS) is the artist formerly known as Northern Borders Partners and as long term holders probably know you suffered sideways movement for years with no increase in distribution...the Enron overhang etc etc etc. But now thats all gone and we have seen the distribution go from 3.20 to 3.80 annual in 2 quarters. Supposing the market decides to reward this by dropping the yield down to 6.3%. If the view is that we know have a future distribution grower...than a 6.3% yield gives you a 60 dollar price!

In summary you have 2 choices here...if you go with the proven grower (COPANO) you don't have much room for yield shrinkage since the market has priced that in...but if they keep aggressively increasing their distributions and long term rates hold steady or fall you have a winner. If you go with Oneok LP...you have some room for the price to rise forcing the yield down as long as you believe it will be a future grower. We'll see what the market tells us about these 2 shortly.

Meanwhile stock futures are stronger this morning with yields near the flat line...Energy complex has settled back from its spike highs from last week. So it looks to me like more upside. No corporate news this morning and no upgrades or downgrades.

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