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Tuesday, May 12, 2009

OIL NEARING 60! BETTER TIMES AHEAD?



One of the points i have been making from time to time especially in private discussions (are there such a thing anymore?) is to watch the oil price as it will tell you whats really going on in the economy. If oil moves back up it will signalling that things are getting better. Well i want to take this out another step from there. 60 dollar oil is a magic number for many mlps that have commodity risk. Take Atlas Pipeline Partners(APL) for example. An average price above 60 dollars puts them in a much better financial position than at 40 dollars and it keeps them functioning without putting all sorts of lending and covenants in danger. Getting to 60 is one thing and keeping it there is another. But getting back to 60 is a good sign for all of us. Couple that with improving credit markets and MLPS continue to enjoy a tailwind that point to higher prices.

Earnings news leftover from last night include Markwest Energy (MWE). The company says they have the cash flow to pay that 64 cent distribution for the rest of the year. Thats good to hear. Also E V Partners (EVEP) put up earnings last night. I noticed that they used the March 31st oil price of 33 bucks and the company is 100% hedged out to 2011. Would like to have seen the coverage ratio but i will wait to hear it on the conference call.

Stock futures are higher after yesterday's apparently one day sell off of 100 points or so. Crude is up 1 and change pre market. Williams Companies (WPZ,WMZ) is having an anal-ist day so i will be looking for headlines in case anything is mentioned with respect to their mlp's. Also we have Linn Energy (LINE) doing a public offering of 4 million units.

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