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Monday, March 05, 2007

MONDAY MORNING MARKET SELLOFF...
MORE MLP FLIGHT TO QUALITY
CRUDE DOWN $1..,CROSSTEX GETS AN UPGRADE


Monday morning sees the potential for a 100 point down open and the dow falling below 12000 so we could see some downside gap opens before some upside takes hold. Energy is down this morning across the board which might take big energy down but the selloff has priority and MLPS will react much more to the fall in the 10 year. This morning the rate sits at 4.48%. General Partners (GP's) did extremely well last week with new all time highs for Valero GP(VEH) and Energy Transfer Equity (ETE) and why not. You get yields in the 4 to 5% range and the market is beginning to pay attention.


Crosstex LP was one of the few MLP losers last week on so-so earnings...the prospect for a slowing of distribution growth (temporarily according to the company) and a host of downgrades. The stock use to yield in the mid 5% range which is inline with with the faster distribution growers in the group. But now the market has raised the yield to the mid to high 6% range which puts it more in line with the slower or nongrowers. I think the stock is probably fairly valued now between 34 and 36 and Credit Suisse this morning, which had the stock at underperform upgrades the stock to neutral. Considering that they were the only house at underperform in the last few months, their move has some value. Stock bidding higher in the premarket this morning by 50 cents. Being downgraded this morning is Atlas Pipeline Holdings by Wachovia from outperform to market perform. Stock has down well as it has moved from the low 20s to 26 or so.


It's always important to keep an eye and where you are so i give you 2 charts...one chart is nice looking and the other not so nice. Which one would you rather own?

Markwest Energy (MWE) has just come out with earnings which shows a doubling of distributable cash flow (DCF) and prospects going foward look very good. Copano Earnings (CPNO) will be out after the close today.


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