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Wednesday, April 16, 2008

The seeds were planted for a strong day yesterday when they couldn't take em down any more and we closed at the high for the day. MLPs are higher. The index is up over 2 points and over 286. Just about everything is up except for a few losing a couple of pennies here and there.

Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP) and Plains All American (PAA) up 1 or more. And we have a pretty long list of fractional winners.
SETTING UP FOR A BIG UP DAY....IF?


That if will be the cpi numbers due out at 8:30am. A hot number is probably baked into the cake particularly since Euro cpi overnight was a hot number and the dollar is being flushed down the toilet this morning. Nonetheless earnings have been very good so if we can get by cpi we may see some nice upside.

Meanwhile for all you hostile bears on the board lately....here are some charts showing the mlp index relative performace vs the S&P over 5 day, 3, and 6 months.

Notice the 3 month period which includes March shows just how nasty it got for this group when Bear Stearns hit and the Lehman rumous were running...and we were getting our you know whats squeezed in a vice.
And over 6 months were are outperforming the S&P which is a good thing.
Now i know some of you will see the index doesn't show the full impact as some mlps are down much more than everything else and i understand that. Maybe the lesson here is your mlp mix needs to be across the spectrum from the big boys to the speculative as well as the liquidity question which is important especially when selling. You have to sell but who are you going to sell to?
The MLP index is trying to push itself back to 290 as we are hopefully basebuilding and not topping out in an overall downtrend. Meanwhile here is the chart of Atlas Resources (ATN) which is just soaring...another 2 points yesterday. Don't you wish you bought in the mid 20s. And if you did...aren't you a happy camper!
Now i own this one..Penn Virginia Holdings (PVG) which looks like its building a nice base with an head and shoulders bottom formation. Needs to close above 29 with volume to confirm a breakout. I trade this one as well as hold shares for the long haul.

Okay news from last night as Buckeye's(BPL) deal with Inergy LP (NRGY)closes. Also we have a distribution increase from Oneok LP (OKS)to 1.04 from 1.0250. This morning Morgan Stanley upgrades Plains All American (PAA) to overweight from equal weight.

No other headlines so far. Oil at 114 and rising. Nat gas over 10 bucks and up this morning as well. Stock futures continue to strengthen...which of course could all get undone at 8:30am. But if we get by that...i think we could see some very good upside.

Tuesday, April 15, 2008

Oil is just under 114. Amazing isn't it. It just never goes down.

MLPs doing okay today for the most part. The index is up 1 and small change. Martin Midstream (MMLP) joins the list of 1 point winners. Atlas Resource (ATN) is up nearly 2 dollars now at just under 43...up 13 points since the Cramer goose on Mad Money a few weeks ago.

Nustar Holdings (NSH) is down 1 as gasoline refiners under some pressure with oil so high.
Tax question on the board. Scroll down to find it. Please post if you know the answer.
I have to say that based on the comments lately the sentiment on this board has gone from negative to desperate to hostile. Must be a good sign.

Meanwhile the MLP index is up almost 1 point on a day where the overall market is not doing much of anything at least so far. As predicted this morning Linn Energy (LINE) is down 40 cents on its sale of assets to XTO Energy which itself is only up 3 cents. Alliance Resource (ARLP) is up 1.50 and Atlas Resource (ATN) is up 1 and change. Holly Partners (HEP) Nustar Holdings (NSH) and Penn Virginia Holdings (PVG) are down major fractions as the biggest loser.

Get your taxes all done boys and girls as midnight looms large!
Down 11 cents on Linn after an up open...buy the rumour sell the news...but the day is young.
Distribution news from big boy Enterprise(EPD) which hikes the payout...again. Duncan Partners (DEP) also is announcing its distribution.

Gotta feeling Linn may be down today on the news. But i could be wrong.
Linn 23.70 x 24
Linn just traded 1000 shares @ 24 up 20 cents from the close yesterday.
LINN SELLS MARCELLUS ASSETS



I guess they decided to maximize value on the Marcellus shale assets while the going is hot as the company is selling them to XTO Energy for $600 million. Linn says it will use the money to reduce debt and should have no impact on distributable cash flow. XTO is bidding 64.50 x 65.95 right now...a few trades at 64.75. Linn Energy is 23.65 x 24.53. No trades yet. Judging by the chart you think somebody knew something?

I'm not so sure that this will be viewed in a good light but we'll see. Did they sell because they had to or was it a strategic decision that it was better to cut down debt and not issue any new equity as outlined in previous conference calls. Analyst day on Thursday.

E V Partners (EVEP) announced a smaller 18 million dollar deal as they are purchasing some wells in Texas.

No other news and no upgrades or downgrades so far. The MLP index close up over 1 point yesterday and continues to show relative outperformance to the overall market. I would expect that trend to continue. Need to clear 290 short term.

Monday, April 14, 2008

IS IT BREAKOUT OR FAKEOUT?


The Linn Energy(LINE) chart below. It looks like a breakout but lets wait for the close to tell us more.




Mlps displaying a firm tone today with the index up over a point while the market tugs back and forth. No downside followthrough today at least so far. A number of fractional gains in the group in most of the recognizable names.
Good news for Teppco (TPP) unit holders as they are getting at 1.5 cent increase in the distribution. This is especially important as Teppco has done so little for so long on the distribution front. Look for this one to move on the news.
LETS BECOME ACCOUNTANTS!


Over the weekend i had to see an accountant. I've been doing my own taxes for years but i ran into something i couldn't handle regarding a lawsuit and a business i sold. When the accountant saw my past returns he was absolutely blown away. He was especially impressed with the K-1's from MLPS and oil depletion allowances and all the other technicallities that aries with this stuff. I told him it was turbo tax and i just plug in the numbers. He practically offered me a job! So those of you out there who do your own taxes...i share this compliment with you. You have accountants who want to worship you!

Okay its Monday morning and it looked like the market was going to open flat until we heard from Wachovia (WB) so the tone of the tape at the open will be down. I guess MLPS will follow along at least at the open. Its a quiet morning with no news and no upgrades or downgrades.

Finalizing all my taxes this morning so i will be running around this morning. I will post again later this morning as things get underway.

Friday, April 11, 2008

Its all GE all the time today and that is dominating everything. Dow down 240. MLP down 2 and change. At least the Lehman victims of last quarter like Linn, Constellation, Eagle Rock, EV Partners are flat to higher today along with a couple of others. The Atlas group is higher...Atlas Resource +1.21. Atlas Holdings (AHD) +.20 and Atlas Pipeline (APL) +.02. Atlas America (ATLS) is +3.39 on a Freidman Billings upgrade.

Holly Partners (HEP) and DCP Midstream (DPM) are down 1. Energy Transfer (ETP is down 80 cents even though JP Morgan starts coverage with an outperform. Most MLPS showing fractional losses.

The mood on the comments today is pessimistic...almost to the point of disgust.

Is it possible? Does Linn Energy's chart look like we are about to emerge from a base? Stock is over 23 right now and up 55 cents! Its more fun this way.
Getting ugly out there after the GE miss. It will be interesting to see what the overall market does in the face of this.

No other headlines in our space and no upgrades or downgrades.

Back to GE...is anybody really surprised at this in leiu of what happened in March and how everything financial was hit over the head with a club?
Oh well...GE earnings were not good. Futures selling off.

Freidman Billings is raising its target on Atlas Energy Resources (ATN) to 54 dollars from 40 bucks. This one has been an outstanding performer this year....among few outstanding performers in the mlp space.
FRIDAY! FRIDAY! FRIDAY!


I don't know. Maybe because its the end of the week. Maybe its the spring horse racing at Keeneland as head for the derby. Maybe its the fact that i'm almost done with my taxes. Maybe its the market's firmer tone. Maybe its the fact that MLPS are acting a little better. Or all of the above. I don't know but i'm in a good mood.

This is an early post as i am working early this morning. I will add to this as the morning wears on but stock futures are stronger ahead of GE's earnings.

Thursday, April 10, 2008

The big mlps in the MLP index are down harder then most other mlps and as the result we're seeing the index down over 2 points and just off the lows at 285 and some change. The overall market is rallying as 1350 S&P and Dow 12500 held yesterday and again this morning. Oil is selling off 1 dollar so it looks like we could see an attempt to breakout above 12750 on the down in the next few days. Rally mode is good for MLPS in my view.

Atlas Resource peeked over 40 where it peaked today; though it is still up 1 at 39.60 and leads the list of winners. Enbridge Energy Partners (EEP) Kinder Morgan (KMP) Plains All American (PAA), Energy Transfer (ETP) and Nustar (NS) are all fractional losers.

UBS has a report up on the yahoo mlp group board. Worth a look. Hoping for a last hour comeback.
FIRST DOWN DAY IN 8
ENERGY MARKETS ONLY TRADE ONE WAY



Sure feels that way lately as Crude oil hit as crude oil hit 112 yesterday before backing off a touch. The USO chart which is a proxy for crude looks like its breaking out again to the upside. I suppose 120 is the next logical stop here. I'm just wating for a parabolic spike. It sure seems like that's what's coming.

Nat gas is also looking like its getting ready to spike out to a new high here and we do have gas numbers due out at 10:30am. And its not hurricane season yet.
And then there's us...the MLP index has for the first time since November cleared above its short term expotential moving averages...at least the ones i like to use as trading points. The moving averages looking like they are turning to a positive slope and the next thing to look for is the 34 day average to cross over the 55 and 89 which is of course bullish.
Enterprise (EPD) has a leaking pipeline in 85 ft of water in the Gulf of Mexico. That pipeline will be shut until repairs. News came out yesterday and took out about 66 cents here and EPD is a big component of the MLP index.