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Thursday, May 01, 2008

EXXON GETTING RIPPED


Sometimes there are what i called gimmie's....easy trade set ups that just beg you to take them. Yesterday was one of those where Exxon (XOM) rallied hard ahead of earnings so nothing short of perfection was going to be met with a sell-off anyway. And since they fell short of estimates the stock gets hit even harder. I mention this because we will see pressure on energy this morning coupled with crude which is actually down 1.50 this morning and under 113. Note that crude rallied after the 2:30pm close and rose a dollar in electronic trading between 3 and 4 pm yesterday. So there is a bit of a disconnect. So look for pressure on mlps at the start. But yesterday was an example of waiting for the finish and mlps as based on the mlp index did finish higher for the day and outperformed everything else on the day.

Earnings this morning from Williams (WPZ) which look inline but a touch light on the revenue number. No other news. Lehman is keeping Teppco (TPP) at equal weight but nudges the target price down by a couple of bucks. Nothing else on the agenda this morning. Watch carefully to see if the Exxon number leads to a broader selloff in all things energy (whether rightly or wrongly we might get dragged along) or whether it remains confined to big oil. Nat gas is actually a little higher this morning and nat gas numbers are due out at 10:30am.

22 comments:

Anonymous said...

Any news about BBEP?

Anonymous said...

AMZ -0.53%
S&P +0.44%
DOW +0.32%

Glory!

Anonymous said...

AMZ -1.00%

Market continies to leave us in the dust...

Anonymous said...

YTD

BKX -3.00% (bank index)
AMZ -3.43%

That is pathetic.

Anonymous said...

Where are all of the investors seeking income? Fed funds at 2%, One yr CD's paying nothing after taxes and inflation.

When do these pieces of sh*t get moving?

The world is passing us by.

Anonymous said...

TPP -10% in about a week? What gives?

Anonymous said...

PAA too!

Anonymous said...

S&P and DJIA at the highs of the day.

AMZ at the lows.

Anonymous said...

Banks have been flooding the market with capital raising preferred stock offerings with yields above 8 percent. I suspect that this is hurting the MLPs. I don't have a sense of when it might turn around though.

MLPs did not enjoy the recent strong bullish move in energy but they are now acting like they may go down hard with the rest of the complex. This is not good.

Anonymous said...

Nothing good has happened in MLP's in over 9 months.

AHD only down 4% today.

Broad market storming higher

Anonymous said...

"Nothing good has happened in MLP's in over 9 months."

~ pure bashing

Anonymous said...

What is your motivation for buying an MLP? Are you in it primarily for the purpose of turning a quick profit -- hoping to sell the ticker symbol at a higher price at some point in the immediate future? Or do you see yourself as a partner in a midstream energy business?

I think the problem here is that MLPs trade in a very liquid market where prices can be monitored on a minute timeframe. What if these were privately owned businesses -- where you couldn't determine your liquidation value with a click of the mouse? Would you still be an owner?

I look at the health of the underlying business. Most of the partnerships are cash machines pumping out quarterly distributions in ever increasing amounts. That represents value and I really could care less if the market is too stupid to figure that out right now. It won't be able to ignore that kind of cashflow forever.

Getting caught up in a popularity contest is important for stocks like GOOG and YHOO, for example. Here it's all about perception and expectations because neither of them pay a dime.

I am adding to my MLP positions through DRIP and limit orders. I don't know about the rest of you, but I like bargains. I hope prices remain down so I can continue to buy more.

Anonymous said...

What happened to all the LINE cheerleaders?

Anonymous said...

I hope prices remain down so I can continue to buy more.

It's your lucky day, week and year, because these pigs are down for the count...

Anonymous said...

Great day for MLP's

AMZ -0.68%
S&P +1.53%
DOW +1.62%

Welcome to the doghouse!

Anonymous said...

Buy MLP's if you love:

UNDERPERFORMANCE

FRUSTRATION

DIVIDENDS

LOSING PRINCIPAL

WATCHING PAINT DRY

Anonymous said...

Sometimes I wonder if some of the people who post here actually own any MLPs.

As for me, MLPs represent long-term investments and I have taken advantage of the last 6 months to upgrade my portfolio.

Bruce

Anonymous said...

"Sometimes I wonder if some of the people who post here actually own any MLPs."

~ The bashers here certainly don't.

Anonymous said...

When you see a reference to "pigs" as you do on this page, you know you have some short sellers visiting here.

Anonymous said...

MLP's...The horror...The horror...

holew said...

I have heard that there has been a big oil discovery in North America (i.e. USA) perhaps in North or South Dakota. Additionally there is an MLP which is positioned to take fully advantage of this discovery. Does any one know what MPL is involved with this?

This all came to me in an AD from the Energy Newsletter, trying to sell its newsletter.

holew said...

I agree with MIKE. This is a great buying opportunity for many MLPs, especially those in pipelines and natural gas.

The price of natural gas while up still is a relative bargain in comparison with oil or coal. Also being cleaner of the carbon fuels natural gas will do well in the next 3 to 5 years.