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Tuesday, September 30, 2008

IT AIN'T 1929....NOT YET!





And now of course after yesterday's 777 point debacle and the 15 point drop in the MLP index we see today setting up for a bounce at the open which frankly doesn't thrill me because it gives a strong bid for people to sell into. We are setting up to get about 1/2 of yesterday's loss but who knows if it holds.

News this morning on Constellation Energy Partners (CEP) which is exploring strategic alternatives in leiu of the merger of Constellation (CEG) with Mid American Energy. Stock is catching a bid on the news in the pre-market. No other news this morning. No upgrades or downgrades in MLP land.

220 seems to be the line in the sand for us right now. We'll dead cat bounce with everything else this morning and then we will see if the sellers are done or if we are about to go further down into the abyss.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Libor reacts to the HOUSE vote, from bloomberg.

HS


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Libor Surges Most on Record After U.S. Congress Rejects Bailout

By Gavin Finch and David Yong

Sept. 30 (Bloomberg) -- The cost of borrowing in dollars overnight surged the most on record after the U.S. Congress rejected a $700 billion bank rescue plan, heightening concern more institutions will fail.

The London interbank offered rate, or Libor, that banks charge each other for such loans climbed 431 basis points to an all-time high of 6.88 percent today, the British Bankers' Association said. The euro interbank offered rate, or Euribor, for one-month loans climbed to record 5.05 percent, the European Banking Federation said. The Libor-OIS spread, a gauge of the scarcity of cash, advanced to a record. Rates in Asia also rose.

``The money markets have completely broken down, with no trading taking place at all,'' said Christoph Rieger, a fixed- income strategist at Dresdner Kleinwort in Frankfurt. ``There is no market any more. Central banks are the only providers of cash to the market, no-one else is lending.''

Credit markets have seized up, tipping lenders toward insolvency and forcing U.S. and European governments to rescue five banks in the past two days, including Dexia SA, the world's biggest lender to local governments, and Wachovia Corp. Money- market rates climbed even after the Federal Reserve yesterday more than doubled the size of its dollar-swap line with foreign central banks to $620 billion. Banks borrowed dollars from the ECB at almost six times the Fed's benchmark interest rate today.

Libor Rate

The two-month euro Libor rose to 5.13 percent today, also a record. Libor, set by 16 banks including Citigroup Inc. and UBS AG in a daily survey by the BBA, is used to calculate rates on $360 trillion of financial products worldwide, from home loans to credit derivatives.

Funding constraints are being exacerbated as companies try to settle trades and buttress balance sheets over the quarter- end, balking at lending for more than a day.

The three-month interbank offered dollar rate in Singapore jumped to an eight-month high of 3.90 percent. The three-month rate in Hong Kong rose by the most in almost a week to 3.664 percent. The difference between the rate Australian banks charge each other for three-month loans and the overnight indexed swap rate reached 98 points, close to a six-month high. The gap has averaged 45 basis points this year.

Dexia got a 6.4 billion-euro ($9.2 billion) state-backed rescue, according to a statement from Belgian Prime Minister Yves Leterme today. The U.K. Treasury yesterday seized Bradford & Bingley Plc, Britain's biggest lender to landlords, while governments in Belgium, the Netherlands and Luxembourg extended a lifeline to Fortis, Belgium's largest financial-services firm. Hypo Real Estate Holding AG received a loan guarantee from Germany, and Iceland agreed to rescue Glitnir Bank hf.

`New Extreme'

``Counterparty fear in the banking sector is at a new extreme,'' said Greg Gibbs, director of currency strategy at ABN Amro Holding Bank NV in Sydney. ``Credit conditions are as tight as a drum. Unless this settles down, central banks would need to cut rates globally to bring funding costs down.''

Futures on the Chicago Board of Trade show a 66 percent chance the Fed will trim its 2 percent federal funds target rate by 50 basis points in October, surging from zero percent a month ago. The odds of a quarter-point reduction are 34 percent.

The Frankfurt-based ECB said it lent banks $30 billion for one day at a marginal rate of 11 percent. The Fed's key rate is 2 percent. The ECB said it received bids for $77.3 billion. The Bank of Japan injected more than 19 trillion yen ($182 billion) into the country's system over the past two weeks, the most in at least six years. The Reserve Bank of Australia pumped in A$1.95 billion ($1.6 billion) today.

Libor-OIS Spread

The Libor-OIS spread, the difference between the three- month dollar rate and the overnight indexed swap rate, widened to 246 basis points, showing cash scarcity is at a record.

The difference between what banks and the U.S. Treasury pay to borrow money for three months, the so-called TED spread, was at 338 basis points today after breaching 350 basis points for the first time yesterday. The spread was at 110 basis points a month ago.

``We can be sure that funding pressures are not going to ease while there is so much uncertainty,'' said Adam Carr, senior economist in Sydney at ICAP Australia Ltd., part of the world's largest inter-bank broker. ``Cash is going to be at a premium. There's really no end in sight.''

To contact the reporters on this story: Gavin Finch in London at gfinch@bloomberg.net; David Yong in Singapore at dyong@bloomberg.net