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Wednesday, November 23, 2011


For mlp holders being long over the holiday doesn't afford too much risk. The stocks remain (for now) closer to their highs for the year than their lows. So far they have resisted the bearishness that is spreading across all markets. The support levels for mlps remain above the supporting moving averages and they may be one of the last groups to be in this position.

The dow was the last chart to break below the 50 day (of the major averages) and we are now have pretty much nothing from here down to the lows around 10800 or so. The news this morning is not good all the way around from the China PMI index dropping below 50 and the lowest in 32 months to the situation in Europe which may now being getting very close to the edge of the abyss.

The German bond auction today was by all reads a disaster with virtually no demand. It appears the crisis is spreading into the core. We could be rapidly approaching the tipping point here. Given all the uncertainty does anyone want to be long with us being closed tomorrow for Thanksgiving and limited trading Friday while Europe continues business as usual?

Being its the day before Thanksgiving the news front is quiet on the corporate side. No news and no upgrades or downgrades. Stock futures here start us down about 100 dow points. Crude is selling off and if the market selloff takes us down to October 4th lows look for brent to head below 100 bucks. The euro is selling off on the German bond disaster. Gold is down which in my view is indicating that someone out there is selling due to stress (major european bank?). The 10 year is at 1.95%. There is potential for it to get ugly as the day wears on.


Max said...

Joe - I agree with your assessment: The German bond sale was a disaster today. French, and even Belgian (usually a safe haven) bond interest rates, are up sharply today. This could really get ugly. I'm 90% cash and have no plans to increase my equity exposure until after the 2012 elections. I'm afraid we are in for some tough sledding.

Here's hoping Jon Corzine soon joins Bernie Madoff.

Max said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
joewxman said...

We are cicling the drain. The german auction disaster puts this crisis in full swing. The Euro is imploding. Heaven help us!