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Tuesday, December 19, 2006


LINN ENERGY CONTINUES TO RUN....DISTRIBUTION ANNOUNCEMENTS...A SECONDARY IS DONE...AND BIG KUDOS TO FACTOIDS!!!

Its a busy morning in MLP land so lets begin with Linn Energy (LINE) which has run from 22 to 32 lately. Well look for some more upside today as we have AG Edwards upgrading the stock from hold to buy. The only question in my mind here is whether this is priced in short term. Another big runner in the last few days has been Natural Resource Partners(NRP) which is even more impressive since anything coal lately has been falling. Anyway they announce another small purchase of reserves last night. We'll see if this pushes the stock toward 60...or not. Teppco is on the wire this morning as it is going to be expanding a refinery.

Anyone wanting to go long on Valero Holdings (VEH) has been waiting for the sale of stock from former parent Valero (VLO). Well that's now done as the offering priced last night at 21.62 per share. The stock is active in the premarket this morning with 220,000 shares traded, last at 21.82 up 20 cents from yesterday's close.

Energy Transfer Partners has announced its distribution increase this morning. The increase is .075 annual or .018750 for the quarter. Which leads me to giving big kudos to "FACTOIDS" who MLP followers know all to well on some of the assorted message boards on the internet. Here's a thread that he started on the yahoo ETP message boards that is really worth reading. He breaks down the math on ETP and indicated that a 2 cent distribution increase was the most likely outcome from this quarter and that higher numbers were clearly unrealistic and in fact unsustainable. Its is well worth the time to read through this. Also visit factoids site, the link to which is near the top of the blogroll or just link right here.




We may be at the point with Energy Transfer Partners where its just too large to grow at rates sustained in the past few years.





No indication yet on the distribution for Energy Transfer Equity (ETE) which is poised to see its distribution grow at a faster rate due to recent deals and where it is with respect to distribution rights and splits. BTW in the interest of disclosure i am long ETE. And speaking of message boards (shameless self promotion.) please don't forget i have set up a board for MLP stocks on google with the link here or on the side bar above the blogroll.

The ten year yield is back to 4.60 but no real reaction to the messed up PPI number whch was way above expectation but had some ridiculous car price increase distortion. And it counters the prior months number which was equally ridiculous on the downside. Crude and natural gas are selling off this morning but big energy stocks look a bit on the flat side in the pre market.

The open approaches and we wait patiently to see whether yesterday's 1.50 mlp index drop was a one day correction or something that spreads out over a couple of days. If it spreads out...buying opportunity.

6 comments:

Anonymous said...

What happened to the ticker at top??

Anonymous said...

Linn Energy upgraded by AG Edwards - do you have the specifics? Target price?

Anonymous said...

If LINE keeps running it might be a short at year end looking at those who might be profit taking early next year.

Larry
Dallas

joewxman said...

Ticker's working now..but let me know if you still have a problem

joewxman said...

I don't know about shorting it but i would not be surprised to see some selling in this one after jan 1 for a few days for tax reasons. 34-36 would be a reasonable valuation based on their pre-announced q1 distribution.

AG Edwards gave no target but look for the report to pop up on the yahoo research site...link at the top of the blog roll

Anonymous said...

yahoo msg board said $46 target from AG Edwards, but no actual report -- appreciate if you see it to confirm