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Monday, July 07, 2008

DOLLAR SCREAMING HIGHER
OIL AND ENERGY DOWN
WHERE TO NEXT?



I'll address the question immediately and that is down at least for a while longer. The mlp index has fallen off the cliff again and we start the week at 272.99. Looks like a retest of 262 is in order here and the reason this time will be the shedding of energy stocks in general as they get blown out of portfolios. So the way it works here is the shoot first ask questions later. Last week we saw the last winners in this bear market finally roll over. So my guess is mlps will suffer here if big energy suffers a breakdown rightly or wrongly. We did not participate on the way up so of course we should participate on the way down..at lease initially.

The dow chart is a horror and i think we have at least another 500 dow points to shed here as we head below 11k in my view (believe me i hope i'm wrong).
And this chart of big oil (XOI index) clearly is rolling over so the pressure points are there.

The wild cards this morning are the dollar which is screaming higher across the board this morning and that has pulled commodities down across the board including crude oil which is down 2.50 from Thursday's close above 145. This might provide broader market support at least for awhile but all the other market problems do weigh heavily and may exert themselves after the open. Nat gas is also down about 20 cents this morning. Stock futures were actually down nearly 9 points in overseas trading on Friday but they have rallied overnight back to even from Thursday's close.

MLP corporate news this morning is nonexistent and there are no upgrades or downgrades.

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