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Friday, July 18, 2008

HAPPY ANNIVERSARY



One year ago today folks the MLP index hit its all time high and ended a rally that began in October of 2006 when the index broke out above 270 and ran up some 30% from there. And with yesterday's 262.01 close we have given it all back except of course for all distributions since. We are down 23.5% since the top but at least we have 7 to 9% distribution yield to cushion that. And of course we're talking an average here so most are down more; some are down less like Kinder Morgan Holders for example (KMP) whose stock price in the last year hasn't changed too much. Of course it all depends on where you bought.


Of course yesterday's big news was Semagroup Energy Partners (SGLP) who stood by while the stock went into freefall on huge volume. Then at 8:10pm after all trading ceased came the announcement that their parent company which is private was having liquidity issues and could file for chapter 11.


Now that is a fabulous chart isn't it. Much of the company's business comes from the parent company as stated in the latest 10Q filing. You think there is an issue here? Citigroup downgrades to hold from buy this morning. A little late kids!

Leftover news from yesterday as Magellan(MMP) boosts for the umpteenth time in a row. Magellan Holdings (MGG) does the same.

Okay boys and girls this is it here. We have to bounce. Since energy stocks have been in freefall all week they should bounce soon and maybe today is the day. Crude oil is up this morning by less than 2 bucks but its down 15. For you Double short players there is DTO which is double short crude oil as a way to play this decline if it continues from here. Nat gas which had a 13 handle just a couple of weeks ago has crashed down to 10.60 after a big decline yesterday. Its bouncing a few pennies this morning. No other headlines and no other upgrades or downgrades.

Yesterday this blog scored a record number of hits. 2350 page views which doubles the all time high last August when we first crashed down to 290 on the mlp index. I don't know where you all came from but i would say thanks and come in anytime. And previous page view peaks have marked tradeable bottoms in the MLP index. Its 3 for 3 so far. So there is hope in this sea of hopelessness!

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

Berlin/Germany, at the moment JAX/FL. And thank you!

ROS

Anonymous said...

Seems to me that the exponential growth of the MLP space is causing unrest among investors. We used to have KMP, EPD, TPP, ...They had pretty stable and predictable cash flows, and the stocks acted in a similar fashion. With the action in USS, CLMT, and now SGLP, all in the last year, individuals aren't sure what they're getting anymore. It's a different space than it used to be, for better or worse. More opportunities, more risk.

Anonymous said...

Bought a bunch of SGLP today @ average price 6.72. Their assets have to be worth a lot more than that.

rrcbenjy