adbrite ads

Your Ad Here
Your Ad Here

tickers

$IN

amazon

Tuesday, September 09, 2008

N.B.M.S.



Nothing but minus signs. I don't know what its going to take really. Lets look at the following combinations.

Commodities go up....mlps go down
Commodities go down...mlps go down
Stocks go up...mlps go down
Stocks go down....mlps go down
Rates go up....mlps go down
Rates go down.....mlps go down
Dollar goes up.....mlps go down
Dollar goes down....mlps go down
Energy stocks go up....mlps go down
Energy stocks go down....mlps go down
and Constellation Energy Partners (CEP) just goes down.


We finished yesterday just over 260 and down. Now while the dow was up 300 points it was not as good as it looked when you check advance decline and up and down volume. However we are seeing stock futures stronger today so lets see if the buying can spread out to other groups.

In corporate news this morning E V Partners (EVEP) closed on its recent purchase. They go to a 75 cent distribution in October or 3 dollars annual which is a 13.6% yield. To which i respond who cares because the market sure doesn't. Morgan Keegan is starting coverage on Crosstex (XTEX) at market perform and Regency (RGNC) at outperform.

Stock futures are up this morning as oil falls below 105. Hurricane Ike continues to see its forecast track shift southward and the latest shift would take the hurricane only on the southernmost edge of the rigs in the Gulf of Mexico. Natural gas is crashing down 31 cents and getting close to the 7.00 level. So look for pressure on energy stocks at the open. If you are not sure what that means to MLPS's go back and find the combination listed.

I am adding a new financial blog to the blog roll. Jeflin's Investment blog looks like a good place for info. He has a list of all the banks that went under so far along with some good perspective. Check it out please.

Constellation Energy Partners (CEP) traded down to 11.28 yesterday and at that price we have a yield of 19.58%. So at that price...assuming the distribution isn't cut...the stock essentially pays for itself in roughly 15 quarters of distribution. So by July of 2012 you own the stock for free! But there is something wrong here because while the market does occasionally get things wrong, its normally not to this extreme. The company said back in July that it has already asked the board to recommend a q3 distribution at the same level. I'm sorry but the market is telling us that something is wrong here. Maybe its the announcment of the parent shopping around its stake and no one wants the uncertainty. Add a bear market enviornment and you get to this extreme price measure. I wish this would resolve itself one way or the other. You can tell i'm long.

Finally this morning a few of you posted in comments yesterday that i have capitulated and thrown in the towel and therefore we have made bottom. Believe me when i tell you i want to be the contrary indicator. I want to have that power. Whatever works. However while my hair hurts and my teeth itch, and the daily agony of watching my portfolio value shrink, i always hold on the that shred of hope. As to the waving of the white flag....please note below.


4 comments:

Anonymous said...

I realize all you guys are in a pretty foul mood, and rightfully so, but at the risk of having tomatoes hurled at me... I thought some perspective might help.

On Jan 2 the S&P opened at 1,467.97. Yesterday it closed at 1267.79. Excluding dividends, that's a 13.6% YTD loss.

On Jan 2 the AMZ opened at 301.13. Yesterday it closed at 260.36. Excluding distributions, that's a 13.5% YTD loss.

(Bear in mind, an S&P styled portfolio would only pay a fraction of the distribution yield paid on a basket of MLPs.)

Yes, MLPs are in the tank. But the entire market is in the tank because we are in a BEAR market. The only way any of this price action carnage will matter to anybody is if they a) sell at these levels or b) accumulate more.

Damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead!

Lee

joewxman said...

Lee,
You are absolutely correct in your view. I hurl no tomatoes as they can leave terrible stains on ones clothes; never mind the carpet.

Certainly many mlps are down far more than the index and i wonder if you ex out Kinder Morgan and Enterprise where the index would be.

I think the frustration stems from seeing every metric used for value screaming buy so many points ago. And they just keep going down. And that is exactly what a bear market does.

Now of course we are approaching quarter end and soon year end tax loss selling which will of course add more pressure.

Anonymous said...

anyone doing any early tax loss selling? might as well get some value out of this mess.

Anonymous said...

MLPs just continue to rollover. There really is no bottom for these things...