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Wednesday, March 25, 2009

FOR ALL THE WORK IN THE RALLY WE ARE STILL JUST BACK TO THE NOVEMBER LOWS



We have gone from 660 to 825 on the S&P and yet when you look at the chart we haven't really done much unless you want to argue that we are essentially going sideways since November. If that is the case then 900 is doable on the S&P on this rally leg. And the tape in my view certainlly feels so much better. So the path of least resistence continues higher short term.


MLPS are up 10% for the year which is nice plus we have a distribution in hand giving us 12% plus total return depending on your holdings of course. The mlp landscape continues to remain littered with mlps that trade with penny stock handles. 15 mlps/gps sell for under 10 dollars which is still below the high of 24 back in November. On the other side of this 13 mlps sell for above 25 dollars. New money in my view should be put into those mlps who have no danger of distribution cuts. Putting them in the ones that have 1 and 2 handles is literally a casino bet. However one should note that there could be big gains for you if you can find the one that does eventually recover.

Not much news on the corporate side this morning. We have an insider buy of 4000 shares at Ferrellgas (FGP). Otherwise its inventory numbers for crude today which is down ahead of the number. Stock futures a little higher this morning but not by much.

Some blog stuff this morning..love the cartoon at Naked Capitalism this morning. A bit of Canadian perspective here. Also in case you haven't had enough of gasbags going on and on we have live streaming of todays round of gasbags here.

Now in case you missed it there was this fabulous exchange yesterday.
Gentle Ben get pissed off or at least as pissed off as you will ever see the fed chairman. Remind me never to ask him a "poorly posed" question.

4 comments:

Anonymous said...

Watching that little exchange makes me feel warm all over knowing we have such diligent policymakers sitting in congress, even if they don't have a friggin' clue what the hell they're talking about. And how about 'ol Barney ready to call the goon squad to have some talkers "in the second row" tossed out! You're a mean one, Mr Grinch...

On another topic, has anyone received a K-1 from Linn Energy yet? It's the lone holdout in my portfolio and given the losses I've suffered last year, this is the first year in memory I'd actually like to file my taxes on time. I suspect Barney and the boys owe me a couple bucks back.

Lee

P.S. A little favorable coverage on MLPs in the April issue of Smart Money. I'd post it, but I can't find a link.

jcarroll1948 said...

Lee. I received the following e-mail from Linn Energy on 20 March, "We are pleased to announce that the Linn Energy, LLC. Tax Reporting Website for Tax Year 2008 is now available at:"
https://www.taxpackagesupport.com/
linnenergy
The URL is all on 1 line. I have not done it yet, but I think you just log in and down load your own K-1.
JCarroll

HS said...

FWIW: the Feb. sell off was triggered by Geithner's "Stress Test" speech on Feb. 10, 2009.

The SPY's closed at 83.11 in reaction to his speech that day ( down from a close of 87.10 the day before.

More downside was caused by the President's budget proposal a few days later.

Well we have to clear 87.10 ( on the SPY's) just to undo the damage caused by Geithner.

Next week the Gasbags take up the budget.

Anonymous said...

To: JCarroll

Thanks for the Linn tax link. I appreciate it.

Lee