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Saturday, December 31, 2005

Decided to interrupt my weekend thanks to Teppco and its news that came out at 7:15pm Friday. Why not wait until the ball dropped in Times Square but they sure picked a time when everyone was of course long gone and we can sit here for three days speculating.

Its the general view among many on the message boards that Teppco will be taken over by Dan Duncan and folded into Enterprise Products Partners (EDP). Check out these slew of messages on the yahoo board for Teppco for other opninons. No one seems to be discussing this on the Enterprise board . I planted a seed there so lets see what it yields.

One could say that the appointment of an "acting" CEO could be a sign since recent other corporate moves involved moving EPD people into the Teppco heirarchy. Folding Teppco into Enterprise probably makes sense for Duncan. I'll be curious to see market reaction to this on Tuesday morning. If there were a takeover please remember that Enterprise's takeover of Gulfterra was done at almost no premium to the trading price. If this merger were to occur my guess is a stock swap and i am dreaming of 1.67 -1.75 shares of Enterprise for each Teppco share ($40-42 bucks).

Of course this could all be one big fantasy here but as for thought.

Friday, December 30, 2005

You can see the year end pressure coming off as the group has been firming up all day...a few exceptions but for the most part higher.

Anyhow again HAPPY 2006...filled with upside and distribution increases...see you all next tuesday
Sorry for the lack of blogging...i don't know if its having worked a double shift...or that its new years...or that teppco is up for the 3rd day in a row.

Lots of near end noise and some early session dumping in Crosstex (XTEX) which plunged to 32 at the open and is now back to unch...HILAND which was +2 and change yesterday has given 1 and change back...otherwise its just year ending with a firmness in most issues. Plains All American is down near its low.

Unless there is an earthshattering development...HAPPY NEW YEAR!!!

Thursday, December 29, 2005

After some early selling there has been a gradual firming of prices..hell Teppco is up for the second day in a row. Valero LP just turned green...Enbridge Partners is +1 and there are some nice fractional plusses in some of the MLPS....Plains All American is the biggest lower down 40 cents. No news on any of these.

Also note the blog roll i've added a new insider site which has lots of info about insider trading. Take a look.
Good Morning!

No news this morning so i guess its more of the same. Year end distortions continue but only 2 days left of this nonsense.

Lots of Bargains in MLP land with yields over 8% in some that are growing their distribution like Atlas Pipeline Partners (APL) and not Teppco (TPP).

Watching the tape as always.

Wednesday, December 28, 2005

Teppco in serious danger of closing higher!

Mostly lower again today with some bouncing here and there. Looks like some organized year end dumping by somebody. Yesterday it was ATLAS PIPELINE and ENBRIDGE ENERGY PARTNERS...both were down 1 or more yesterday and they're up today. Today they're shooting Holly Partners down 1 and change...and Tortoise Energy down 1 even.

Teppco is up as we speak...trying to break a 10 day losing streak.
Apparently after yesterday the general opinions are that winter is over and MLPS are dead. There are IMHO real bargains out there. Atlas Pipeline Partners was yielding over 8% at the close yesterday with a spread of 3.7 above the 10 year!!! Looks like they are trying to bounce them...hell even Teppco has been green on the screen for the last 15 minutes...(alas i spoke too soon!)

No corporate news....3 trading days including today left for final tax loss selling. Yesterday was last day for 2005 settlement if thats important to some traders.

Tuesday, December 27, 2005

Looking ill here in the last 15 minutes...most at new lows of the day....wholesale dumping into the bids (what few there are)...1 point minuses with Hiland, Valero LP and Atlas Pipeline while the GP on Atlas is down 2 with the other major nat gas stocks. Fractional losses across the board. Not a plus sign to be found. Solace in Energy Transfer and Sunoco Logisitcs which are down just a few pennies as of this posting.

When will the ugliness stop??? BTW no corporate news to speak of.
No real recovery here although they've at least stopped going down below the earlier days lows. Today is the last day you can sell for settlement in 2005....still three days of tax loss selling or year end profit locking left if there are any profits left to lock in.

Ten year yield chart is breaking down which should put a solid floor in these things but i've been chanting this for weeks now and the market is not listening.

Teppco looks very sad. Beginning to believe that a distribution cut is in the offing!
Good Afternoon.
Sorry for the late going but had torun around this morning. Everything energy is collapsing so MLPS are following suit even though the 10 year is supportive and breaking under 4.40%. Teppco is down 1 and change and really breaking down badly....if this area goes...I think its a distribution cut being telegraphed and we're headed for 26-28. Atlas is down 1 and change. Big fractional losses across the board. Markwest is actually up a few pennies; Energy Transfer and Buckeye also seem to be holding up well.

Saturday, December 24, 2005

Friday, December 23, 2005

The day is ending.....Valero LP has stopped bleeding...Teppco has not...Good night and MERRY CHRISTMAS TO ALL!!!

this could also be Teppco stock. Yield now at nearly 8% with the stock down another 33 cents. Either its a screaming buy in here or the price action is screaming distribution cut.

your choice

Teppco's down again...going for 7 days in a row. Most of the moves this morning fractional and slightly lower.

Another Christmas Cartoon!

Another one of my favorites!

Please note that i have updated the blog roll. I've added a link to CLOSED END FUNDS. It is a very useful sight with info on how CEF's work. Please visit. Also visit this blog on CEF's. I am adding this to the blogroll as well.

Sharing with you one of my favorite cartoons!

Good Morning. Friday before Christmas Weekend.....Trading should be rangebound nothing so far. Tax loss selling should be abating now as we're past peek volume for the month. There was some firming late in the day yesterday in MLPS....lets see if the trend continues.

Thursday, December 22, 2005

At least a few hopeful signs going into the close...Valero LP is up 52 cents and may actually try and close near its high for the day. Hiland LP is up 63 cents....most MLPS are fractionally higher albeit small fractions and even the losers are down less than 25 cents for the most part,

Teppco down 11 cents...a year from now at 11 cents a will be at zero!
Week is slowing to a crawl now with Christmas fast approaching. transit strike, end of year, etc etc etc so i was slow to blog today. No action really...some bouncing here...some light selling there and no real news to move 'em either way. Teppco down another 13 cents...This death by a thousand cuts is is in an area where it must hold otherwise the next major support is down in the 26 area.

Wednesday, December 21, 2005

I guess it would be too much for both Teppco and Valero LP to close higher at the same time but right now Valero would make it one out of 2.

Losing 2+ is Markwest and its down 6 points in the last few days....still no news here. Mixed in the group today...moves mostly small fractions. At least we're one day closer to the end of tax loss selling.
Well the tone is a bit firmer today; probably being carried by the broader rally. Tax loss selling should be peaking in volume right now and as the pressure comes off the group we should see some bounce. I am still convinced we're putting in a bottom in here for a good rally.

Fractional moves dominate most moves are small. No real news.
Good Morning,
Late night in Manhattan again last night with a Handels Messiah Singalong at Avery Fischer Hall...lots of fun...very tired. And i know all the unused ways into Manhattan and had minimal trouble with traffic!

Okay so Valero and Teppco are up this morning but the day is young. No news today. I think it stays this way until Jan 2 take your tax losses while you can if you have them.

Tuesday, December 20, 2005

The sinkhole Teppco sits in seems un-ending. On the charts its testing its MAY 2004 low which can extend down into the 32-33 range intraday...will it go that low again????

And Valero LP also can't get out of its own way and that one is near its August 2004 low in the 49 area. Yesterday's late afternoon Deuthce upgrade was a waste. 4.47 on the 10 year. Oil and Gas majors are higher.
Some headlines crossing the tape. INERGY (NRGY,NRGP) says it saw strong demand during its "open season"on its Stagecoach II expansion project.

Also Energy Transfer Partners has increased the size of its GP IPO though no story link is available as of this posting. Will post link when available.
Good morning,
Late in the day yesterday we had Valero LP being upgraded by Deutche Securities and Energy Transfer downgraded by Deutche Securities. No impact on ETP but it did cause a few upticks in VLI.

Pre-Christmas/Transit Strike trading so it looks to be more of the same stuff. No news this morning so we may just be appointment only from here on until after new years day.

Monday, December 19, 2005

Its been a death of a thousand cuts today with another slow grinding selloff that takes off fractions. I still think this is a bottom and we should rally nicely from here but my calls tend to be a shade early.

Still new lows in Teppco and Valero LP as tax loss selling or just plain selling continues. Markwest is down 1.31 with no news. In fact except for a few of the closed end funds which are up a few pennies...everything is down today.
Good Afternoon

Sorry for the late posting this morning but i had another funeral to go to...its been a December to remember here as 8 people i know have died. I hope this is the last for awhile.

Looks like end of year mode has begun...Tax related selling has taken Teppco and Valero to new 18 month lows. Markwest Energy is down 1 and change to under 45. Seeing small fractional moves elsewhere with no corporate news.

Friday, December 16, 2005

Friday trading in MLPS is usually uninspiring and today is no different. Valero LP hit at fresh 52 week low at 51.27 and Teppco of course is soft. Everything else is straddling fractions in either direction with no news.

The chart in my last post was the 10 year note price not the the yield. Here are the daily and weekly yield charts of the 10 year note. The daily needs a decisive break under 4.39...the weekly has been pretty much in a trading range.

Good morning. Went to see La Boheme at THE MET at Lincoln Center last night. It was my first opera. The main character dies at the end...the audience dies far sooner!

There has been a general thesis being put out there by MLP observers that rising interest rates have hurt prices in the last 3 months. I would contend that while prices have been hurt the cause may have been more the huge amount of stock offerings and the market correctly anticipating this...rather than any rise in long rates. My reason for this is plainly and simply long rates not only have not really risen in the last year but are still below the April 2004 peak at 4.90%. Short rates have climbed and i think you could argue that risk free 4% is attracting some shorter term money away. The yield spread which shrunk to under 2 at one point in July have now risen to over 3 in some cases like APL and MMLP.

I bring this up mainly because the 10 year yield has been falling since reaching 4.64 a few weeks ago and if you look at the chart we be ready for 10 year rates to drop which of course is supportive to MLP prices. Add to this is the improving technical action in the group and i think (in my never to be humble opinion of course) that the correction in these stocks is over and its time to buy! Again look for the strongest looking charts...

Yields are falling this morning...futures are higher...crude is lower. No news or upgrades/downgrades so far this morning. Waiting for the open.

Thursday, December 15, 2005

Its plus 30 cents to minus 30 cents and everyone is somewhere in between. Consolidating gains from yesterday. Plains All American at 41.43 continues to hold most of yesterday's gains.

No news to speak of this afternoon.
Good morning.

No news from late last night and this morning and no upgrades or downgrades so i figured i let them open up first and trade for a hour. Huge nat gas draw down has put a bid under gas stocks after selling off in the first hour.

MLPS are either side of unchanged this morning all the moves small and fractional. 4.49 on the 10 year. Looking for these stocks to rally later today.

Wednesday, December 14, 2005

13 minutes before the close and Teppco is still up!

Actually a good day today. The best looking charts were up the strongest today. Plains All American is +1.15 on its upgrade. Energy Transfer is up 60 cents and so is Pacific Energy Partners. Magellan Midtream over 33 again up 21 cents. Also fractional gains in Atlas Pipeline and Markwest. Northern Borders Partners at 42.99 now as it bounced off its low. Duke Midstream Partners the new IPO has quietly moved up to 25 from 23 in the last few days.
Don't look now but Teppco is back over 36.
Thought i'd wait for awhile to see if gains would stick and for the most part they have. The best looking charts have had the best day so far. Energy Transfer Partners is up 56 cents and Plains All American opened up 1.50 and then sold off to almost unch and is now up 65 cents. Also we have a plunging 10 year yield from yesterdays pre fed move high of 4.55 to 4.44 as of this posting. No other breaking news this afternoon but the action is improving. Northern Borders making it 3 days up in a row!
Good Morning,
Lets start the morning with an upgrade of Plains All American Pipeline by RBC Capital Markets to outperform from sector perform. Then there is news from Teppco about its credit line and also from Energy Transfer Partners.
No other news this morning so far.

Tuesday, December 13, 2005

No after market news so far...Most MLPS mixed...moves on the small side. Teppco couldn't hold it...Valero LP closed higher by 30 cents..and Northern Borders makes it 2 in a row!

Posted chart above of 4 MLPS and 1 GP. Energy Transfer is the best performer in this group and NRP the worst over the last 3 months. ETP is -3% the rest are down about -9 to -13 %. APL had a stock offering; the others did not.

Now the chart at the top are what i consider to be the 5 outperformers during this correction and perhaps should be looked at seriously as the next group leaders. Note all are down less than 5% and Hiland LP is actually up slightly...and they had a stock offering along with Pacific Energy.

Food for thought.

News on Kinder Morgan Partners and 2006 outlook. All the broken clocks (Valero Teppco Northern Borders etc) are still higher.

Copano (CPNO) seeing some stock sales...-1.46 with no news. Penn Virginia Resources (PVR) down a buck with no news.
Strange morning. Magellan Midstream gets a negative S&P move on its debt and the stock opens up 50 cents to over 33. Northern Border is i guess still benefiting from positive remarks from Morningstar yesterday...stock up to 42. And...are you ready for this....Teppco is actually up 20 cents so far today....oh my God Valero LP has now moved up a nickle.

Broken clocks i suppose are right twice a day.
Good Morning,
Updated the ticker above with a few additions...if you see your favorite MLP missing from the bunch just post a comment on what you would like added.
No news this morning as we wait for the fed. Crude is up a touch this morning in the pre market. Watching and waiting.

Monday, December 12, 2005

Some after market news. Magellan Midstream (MMP) revised its outlook to negative. Inergy (NRGY) on the other hand was raised its rating to B+ with a stable outlook. These headlines just crossed. Will post news link when available.
Looks like a mixed close. Energy Transfer, Pacific Energy Partners, Hiland Partners, and even Northern Borders Partners were higher today while Atlas Pipeline, Buckeye Partners, Valero, Teppco and others were fractionally lower. But the moves were mostly fractional and volume was nothing inspiring. So its appointment only trading again.

Watching the after market for news. Morningstar had some nice things to say about Northern Borders Partners, TCLP which owns a stake in NBP and Amerigas.
Its a watching paint dry type of morning; fractional moves in either direction and no standouts one way or the other. Last few mornings have started this way and we wind up finishing the day on a firm note.

Watching and waiting for something to happen.
Recieved this question.

when one sells an MLP, does one refer to the first K-1 for adjusted cost basis? I've held NBP for a few years and suppose original K-1 is included with that tax year file (that I bought it) but not sure. Think the MLP would help with guidance in that event?

Any answers appreciated in comment section
Good Morning!
Outside our space but a big deal with Conoco Philips and Burlington if finalized. This along with firm energy this morning might light a fire under all things energy. We'll see. Meanwhile its getting closer to Holiday (or should i say CHRISTMAS) and individual company news is non existant this morning. But it is early.

Sunday, December 11, 2005

Good Sunday Evening everyone.
First off the the weather pattern over the eastern us looks cold to bitter cold at times....there looks to be an arctic dump coming for the week of Dec least thats what most weather models are indicating. This coming week will start cold and below normal in the northeast and then trend to near nomal by week's end. This should continue to put upward pressure on oil and gas prices.

In the news a massive explosion at a British oil depot.
Lastest from the BBC at the above link.

I think MLPS are bottoming here and could rally into year end. Buy only the ones with best charts like ETP and PSX among a few others and i would still avoid Teppco and Northern Borders Partners until their charts show at least some signs of bottoming. BTW for the first time the universe of closed end MLPS are selling at discounts to their net asset values after trading at premimums of as high as 6% above NAV. Check FEN FMO TYG KYN.

Crude oil is up this evening by 46 cents and Natural Gas is up as well by a nickle. More cold air arriving. Cactus Jack has as always an informative post on the yahoo boards. Give it read.Link

Friday, December 09, 2005

The Teppco weekly chart above and below is the daily chart.

As sad as the daily looks at least the weekly chart is in an area of support (Ha Ha!)
Im always trying!
In the interest of disclosure....added to positions today in APL and ETP.....Also repurchased HLND and MMLP.
Teppco doing its implosion which now matches its May 2004 low. Hopefully this is the final blowout.
Bit late getting started this morning with nasty weather...wife's home from school...etc etc etc. And i decided to let some trading happen before commenting.

I am no getting stronger in my opinion that we have bottomed in here and that this is a good place to either add to positions or pick up new positions in the stronger MLP charts as shown yesterday...(see archive). Valero LP looked like it did its climactic plunge to higher and 1 dollar off the low. Copano (CPNO) is up 75 cents. On the downside Crosstex (XTXI) is down 1. Everyone else is somewere in between.

Thursday, December 08, 2005

And now an example of a hideously looking chart...the daily chart of Northern Borders Partners as the price is now nearing at 15 month low. Check out the weekly chart at the top here and the round trip that stock holders have been on. Since we're approaching an 8 percent yield its hard to imagine this go much lower than 40...but with no prospects for a distribution increase this looks like dead money at best.

More plus signs and watching the tape in the last 30 minutes MLPS they seem to firm into the close. Ranges very tight today on many in the group and IM(never to be)HO i think this is a good place to pick up bargains. Energy Transfer has one of the best looking charts in the group and Hiland LP for those who want to be a bit more speculative. Again no guarantees from the management here but i think there is light at the end of this rather long corrective tunnel!

Above are some of the better looking charts.
Good afternoon...sorry for not blogging this morning but had to run into NYC and just got back. I see i did not miss much as everything is between +25 cents or -25 cents. Crosstex (XTXI) is down 1.25 but with no news. In fact no corporate news on any of the companies.

thats the raymond james link and its also on the links column

Wednesday, December 07, 2005

As the market sold off this afternoon MLPS did seem to catch a bit of a bid and there is a firmer undertone as money moves around. I still contend that selling seems to be drying up in here and that we may have seen the lows in most of these....would like to see the 34 day moving averages move up and cross back above the 200 but that will require some work.

When corrections are underway they can be painful and grinding and just not fun. But it is wise during this time to perhaps find the ones that are outperforming so when the next upleg begins you might have the next leaders. In the interest of disclosure I own all three. But of all the charts of MLPS...and if you are a chart reader. These three look so much better than the others.

Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) probably is the best looking as it seems to be emerging out of a basing pattern. The other two (Magellan Midstream MMP, and Sunoco Logistics SXL) still look like they are working through their bases. These three do not have that "still in a downtrend look that so many in the group have.

Anyway Food for thought.
Approaching noon time...its still pretty much +25 to -25 on all MLPS...boring boring boring...however i did fix the toilet!!!
Your biggest winner today is up 25 cents...your biggest loser is down 25 cents and everything else is somewhere in between.

I'm going to fix the bathroom toilet.
Good Wednesday Morning.

Somewhat of a firm finish for most of the group yesterday so lets see if it carries over today. Meanwhile on the news front Energy Transfer Partnerss announces a series of aquisitions but they sound on the small side.

No other news to speak of this morning so far. Energy complex is firm as winter continues.

I'm adding this link to the links column. Its to Raymond James and its MLP monthly report. Its a good read on a regular basis.

Tuesday, December 06, 2005

Yields plunging to 4.48 from 4.56 on the ten year plus firm gas and most mlps are higher. Not all but the ones that are down are down just small fractions. Hiland Partners HLND)is up 1.75, Inergy GP (NRGP) +1.50. Fractional gains in Buckeye Partners (BPL), Energy Transfer Partners (ETP), Copano (CPNO) Sunoco Logistics (SXL) and Inergy LP (NRGY).

Down fractions include Holly Partners which opened down 1.50 and is now down 70 cents. Also down are Tortiose Energy(TYG) and Northern Borders Partners (NBP).

Moodys downgrades Markwest's unsecured debt but its a headline and i'm not sure if its the GP or the LP.

Lets see if we can keep a firm tone into the close.
Now that everything is open...moves are literally pennies in either direction. Another watching paint dry start. Teppco news on inline 05 met with a few early sellers and then a yawn.

BTW i don't now how i missed this but Duke's LP came public last Friday.
Good Tuesday Morning.
News from Teppco this morning. They're presenting today at a Wachovia Oil and Gas Conference...they reinterated their guidance for 05'. No big deal here. Atlas Pipeline Partners announcing a priviate placing of senior notes. No other breaking news this morning.

Crude and energy complex is lower this morning but not by much.

Monday, December 05, 2005

Stargas (SGU) is a big gainer today....68 cents and its now a 2 dollar stock!!!

Energy Transfer Partners is 75 cents higher on the distribution and guidance boost. Elsehwhere the picture is mixed with small fractional moves in either direction. The energy complex is off its high of the day. No other corporate news.
I forgot to add this breaking news on Martin Midstream as it buys a shit company....literally!
Well at least its sideways with an upward bias this morning. Even the losers are only small fractions. Stargas has re-arranged the deck chairs on the titanic and the stock is up 40 cents. to 1.80 so a big percentage move.

Not much else happening. 10 year at 4.55...Crude and Nat gas still higher...dow -40.

GOOD MORNING! We begin this monday morning with news from Energy Transfer Partners who is raising the distribution by a nickle (10%) to 55 cents a share and increase earnings guidance as well. Should be worth some upside here. No other news so far this morning.

Energy Complex is rallying this morning especially Natural Gas.

Above is the daily chart for crude verses the 10 year price...Since Hurricane Katrina they have been in lock step...falling crude/rising yields. This chart implies crude will impact the economy as prices rise above 60 dollars.

This is the natural gas chart vs the 10 year. Here its been rising gas/rising yield. The implication here is that rising gas prices will raise yields and be inflationary.

The daily chart on oil/10 year shows how much in lockstep they have been since August.

Seems like the market has discoverd that now we will indeed have a winter as cold air has spread out across much of the eastern two thirds of the US. As per MLPS i am cautiously predictiing that a bottom is being put in place here as volume looks to be drying up in the last several days with some individual selling climaxes occuring. But the charts of most of the group look pretty awful and we need to see these guys to move above their 34 day moving averages. No sign of this yet.

Friday, December 02, 2005

Wake me up when this is over....Every one must have gone home.
Paint drying!!! That is more exciting than whats happening today!
A pretty dull often...most MLPS a few pennies softer. I like down opens like this because its on low volume...buyers usually arrive and drive up prices. We'll see.

Northern Borders sunk to nearly 41. Yield almost 8%. Its looking attractive here.
Good Morning.

Hopefully these things are all sold out...some of the action has the look of a selling climax but bottom picking has not been my strong suit. Unemployment numbers will move the 10 year today. 10 year's initial response to numbers is an easing of yield back toward 4.50%

Inergy GP is out with record earnings after you strip out the numbers. No other news this morning on the corporate front.

Thursday, December 01, 2005

Oppeheimer started coverage today on three pipelines...Pacific Energy Partners at a buy...Teppco and Buckeye at a neutral. Thanks Printeam for the info.

A touch firmer as dow +120 and XOI +28 as it approaches 1k again
Dow +122 Nasdaq +34 XOI +25 xng +7 and MLPS doing very little today. Ten Year at 4.53% at the top of the recent range.

Wake me up when something moves please!
Three of the bigger losers today so far are Northern Borders Partners...-1.16...Enbridge Energy Partners...-.80 and Teppco -.55 and all three have not grown their distributions either at all or relative to the rest of the MLP group.

Mixed action otherwise in the group.
Northern Borders Partners (NBP) is taking 1.10 worth of at 41.65 and approaching an 8% yield. Enbridge Energy Partners (EEP) is down 80 cents and Copano (CPNO) is down 60 cents. Those are the losers today...most others are flat to even slightly higher. Still no breaking news to speak of this far.

Big energy is firm...XOI +15 points.
Good Morning.
Most of these guys cut their losses yesterday by closing time. Its getting to the point where these stocks are severely oversold; yields are approaching 8% in some instances. Atlas Pipeline which has been growing its distribution at a 16% annual clip is yielding 7.8% which is higher than Northern Borders Partners who has not raised its distribution in several years. And some of these like Valero LP is selling for less than it did in MAY 2004 when the 10 year spiked to 4.95%.

I think money flows right now are out of energy and into technology and MLPS are being sold as a source of those funds. And they don't seem to be attracting new money. But the 10 year spread being over 3 points...we are at the top of historical range.

No news on the corporate front this morning.