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Friday, August 31, 2007


MLPS have been under some sort of selling pressure the last few days since we hit the 200 day moving average earlier in the week up around 308. I've been wondering whether another hedge fund has been doing a slow unwinding of positions since Tuesday. Even Wednesday's modest rally in the group had a feel of overhang. But no matter because stock futures are blowing to the upside ahead of the fed speech and the President's speech on dealing with subprime so at least we should see a good start this morning. Normally a Friday ahead of a holiday weekend would be a snooze after the open but there is so much going on today. I will remind you again that back in 1998 on Labor Day weekend Alan Greenspan made a speech that put a bottom in equities and set off a 400 pt one day rally when they came back after Labor day and ultimately a 2000 point move to new highs in November of 98. Not saying its the same here but there are parallels.

Legacy Reserves last night announced a small accretive deal. Nice to see in this enviornment. No other corporate headlines and at least at this early hour no upgrades or downgrades.

I have a very busy day ahead as i am taking my daughter off to college and getting her moved in. Also my new horse Farleyshelonwheels is running in Monmouth Park's 7th race. Also i am trying to get some down time ahead of the holiday weekend. So if news breaks between now and 8:30am i will post it. Otherwise i will be gone all day. I will post a recap tonight when i get back or first thing tomorrow morning. Fingers crossed for a breakout today and a safe and fun last weekend of summer for all.

Thursday, August 30, 2007

Dow sold down to minus 90 taking the mlp index to a new low on the day at 302.58 down 1.57. But the tape has a very funny feel to it so i'm not getting a good feel for the action today. It doesn't feel as bad as it sounds but that could be relative. Not much change in the winners losers list. Some MLP winners have switched sides but everything is on low volume.
I'm not sure what to make of the trading today. The MLP index has been slowly dropping and was down 1 and change near the low of the day while the overall market has turned slightly higher. Part of it might be a rotation in the group. MLPS that were up yesterday are flat to lower today while the laggards yesterday are flat to higher. There appears to be little volume in issues today. Duke Midstream (DPM) is the biggest loser today down 1.70 on no volume and no news. I took a trading position in here today. Terra Nitrogen (TNH) is up nearly 6 points at 98 and change...making eyes toward 100.

Sorry for the late start this morning as i had a few things to do. The MLP index is down a fraction but off the lows as the overall market opens down 100 and is now rallying back to a small loss and the nasdaq is higher. All of this is ahead of Bernanke's speech tomorrow which is almost the same set up we had in 1998 which caused a 400 pt rally. We'll see if history repeats.

Meanwhile some corporate news from Crosstex LP (XTEX) as it is expanding its pipeline in the Barnett Shale. No other news and no upgrades or downgrades.

Most moves this morning are fractional in either direction. Markwest Hydrocarbon (MWP) is down 1. Constellation (CEP), Genesis (GEL) E V Partners (EVEP) K-Sea (KSP) and Markwest (MWE) all down fractions.

Terra Nitrogen (TNH)is up nearly 3 and near 95. Holly LP (HEP) and Calumet (CLMT) are leading fractional winners.

Wednesday, August 29, 2007

The market is extending its low volume rally but MLPS are getting left behind for now. Dow up 170 but the MLP index is up 74 ticks. Not much change in the winners and losers list. Duke Midstream (DPM) is off its lows but still down. Markwest Energy (MWE) and Atlas Pipeline (APL) are the 2 biggest losers down 75 cents each while Terra Nitrogen (TNH) is up 4.21 and Sunoco Logistics (SXL) is up 1.12 as the biggest winners...both off their highs of the day.

Last hour underway.
Up 1.32 and off the high on the MLP index. Not exactly an exciting tape as volume remains on the low side. Terra Nitrogen (TNH) is up 4. Sunoco Logistics (SXL) is up 1 and change. Nustar (NS) Suburban Propane (SPH), Transmontaigne (TLP) Genesis (GEL) and Legacy (LGCY) all fractional winners.

Down 1 and change Duke Midstream (DPM), Fractional losses in Holly Partners (HEP) Penn Virginia Holdings (PVG) Atlas Pipeline (APL) and Eagle Rock (EROC).

Crude up 1.60 while nat gas is down 3 cents. Bonds near 4.50% this morning before it came off a few ticks. Dollar up sharply against the yen.

Yesterday was not fun with the MLP index down 4 1/2 points at 302 and backing away from the 200 day movning average which sits around 310. Looks like support has become resistence and mlps will continue to get suckered down by whatever the overall market does. Just about every MLP was down yesterday except for Linn Energy (LINE) which was up just a few pennies.

Now we are either putting in a double bottom at the 290 level or we could be setting up for a break above 310....i rate the chances for that not all that high and totally dependant on the overall market. I continue to point to the insider buying that continues to occur here 15% below the all time high of 340. Looks like we start higher today as the market bounces from yesterday's ugly day.

No corporate headlines and no upgrades or downgrades. Energy prices are higher except for nat gas which is flat after yesterday's rally. I sold my UNG position for a profit and laddered back into Terra Nitrogen (TNH).

If one wants to parallel this to 1998, Alan Greenspan made a big speech going into Labor Day weekend signalling to the market that easier money was coming in response to the Asia mess. The dow was up nearly 400 points on the day after Labor Day. The final bottom came in a few weeks later, The ease in fed funds came and by November the market got back the 2000 pts it lost in the selloff. Uncle Ben speaks Friday from Jackson Hole. Is it different this time? Food for thought.

Tuesday, August 28, 2007


On a morning where there is nothing going on in the group; we have no corporate news and no upgrades or downgrades, i thought i'd throw up a few charts and take a look at where we are and where we are going.

Most of these charts are still in recovery mode from the big selloff earlier in the month. The mlp index has come back up to the 200 day moving average where it hit a wall yesterday. And given the weak futures we'll start lower today. Meanwhile the Spiders for the S&P 500 are making a shoulder off that V shaped bottom. Volume is very low in this recovery which is not encouraging. But this could be setting up for a big fake-out. I think we will break out of this either to new all time highs or breakdown below the early August lows. I think the universal re-test scenario is just too easy and too obvious. All of this of course in my never to be humble opinion.

Now there is natural gas which is been in free fall since it hit 7.23 ahead of Hurricane Dean. Yesterday we hit 5.20 on the commodity when it reversed and closed near 5.40 and at the high of the day. I mentioned yesterday morning that if we saw a 4 handle i might get back in. When the reversal set up yesterday i took a small long postion late in the afternoon for an overnight trade only hoping to get a move to 5.50 this morning. We're up 7 cents to 5.45 right now so i may be out at the open...which is fine. The UNG chart continues to remain bearish so i won't take a long position to hold for a few weeks until i see better signs of a longer term bottom.

Penn Virginia Holdings (PVG) is one i'm long and while it has been volitile with everything else it seems to have a sideways trend with an up bias. I've been adding to positions in here in the lower 30s. Coal isn't going anywhere until natgas turns up. So there is no rush in here.

And then of course there is Terra Nitrogen (TNH) which is definitely not for the faint of heart. I made a nice trade from upper 60s to low 90s. Now we are pulling back. There is a gap on the charts between 85 and 87.50 from last week and i think the gap will be filled. In fact if the market is weak it could happen today. So i am going to ladder in and build another position in here for a trade. But the success of this trade will ultimately depend on the overall market breaking out to the upside from here. If that happens i think TNH will be back over 100. If the market breaks down this one will break down with it.

So we wait for what will be a down open. Remember all of what i posted above comes with no guarantees but it is food for thought.

Monday, August 27, 2007

Pretty boring day with low volume. MLP indexts1 and change but its more a function of a lot of mlps down fractions rather than any big movers. Most MLPs are down with Global Partners (GLP) the biggest loser down 80 cents while TC Pipelines (TCLP) is the biggest winner up 80 cents.

It is like watching paint dry but the overall market is flat.

Monday morning and we being a new week with the overall markets softer on the futures side. In the energy markets oil is flat but natural gas continues to collapse and is nearing the 5 dollar mark this morning. Looks like that market is in free fall and the tropics are dead as a doornail so there is no pending hurricane disruption of supply. And therefore there is no reason the hold em. I'm going to wait to see if the price breaks 5 dollars and if we get a 4 handle i might be tempted to go long UNG (nat gas etf) for a trade. But i will watch carefully.

Meanwhile the insider buying binge continues as open market purchases by the big boys and girls scoop up all the cheaper shares thrown out in the hedge fund bust of August 6th. Add Genesis LP(GEL) to the list along with Dan Duncan at Duncan Partners (DEP) continuing to add to shares. Nustar Holdings (NSH) saw some purchases at higher prices from here. All of this a sign of confidence going into the fall and winter.

This is an early post and i will be updating as the morning goes on. I will post headlines and any upgrades or downgrades as they break.

Friday, August 24, 2007

Sometimes its hard to get a good feel on a low volume day but upside is upside and the MLP index is up another 2 and change at 306.68 in this headroom rally. Markwest (MWP) Inergy Holdings (NRGP) and Penn Virginia Holdings (PVG) are up 1 or more. Lots of fractional gainers in the group. Not many mlps down and except for Holly Partners (HEP) which is down 60 cents the losers are only off by tiny fractions. Holly was up nearly 3 points yesterday so a pullback here is not a surprise.

Looks like we're going out on a firm tone this week. Low volume has many technicians concerned and everyone is calling for a re-test of the lows; which probably means there will be no retest leaving all the buyers waiting for lower prices to buy higher. No guarantees; just a theory.

Add another 3 points to the MLP index yesterday and we start the day at 304.23. Still some headroom until we get to the 200 day moving average so prices may continue to inch their way higher. So we begin another Friday here with at least some slowly building confidence. My IRA account yesterday closed at a new 52 week high which if you consider how its been since early July. It helped having 2 gutsy trades including a 17 point move in Terra Nitrogen (TNH)I held my nose and bought when the stock dropped into the upper 60s. And my other holdings have recovered to some degree plus another distribution cycle. So for the the sound and fury i am in a good place. I hope the same for all of you.

This morning is quiet. Stock futures have been firming from overnight and are sitting near the flat line. No corporate developements and no upgrades or downgrades on the list.

Dan Duncan continues to buy up shares of Duncan Partners (DEP) on the open market. Headlines this morning as they break.

Thursday, August 23, 2007


The buying of shares by corporate insiders using open market purchases continues. Add Crosstex LP (XTEX) and Legacy Reserves (LGCY) to the list as company big cheeses continue to advertise that their unit prices are undervalued and they are putting their own money on the poker table. As of this posting the yahoo link to LGCY does not have the new filing listed but that should change later today.

MLPS closed up 6 points yesterday and finished near the highs of the day. Just about every stock in the group moved higher and with the market opening higher this morning we will follow along. The oversold rally continues and the 200 day moving average at 307 would be my first target and the first challenge to see if we can get above it again.

At least the MACD for you technical folks has crossed to the buy side as of the close yesterday. So the oversold rally should continue at least to start the day.

Wednesday, August 22, 2007

MLP Index back over the 300 mark up over 5 points. Its adding to gains as the rest of the market holds and financial stocks trend lower.
Bank stocks are weak and brokerages are mixed to lower going into the afternoon. MLPS at the highs of the day up 4 1/2 points and just under 300. Will watch carefully in case the selling spreads but MLPS holding up well.
A nice day so far with the MLP index up over 3 points and sitting near it high of the day...just south of 299. Terra Nitrogen (TNH) is up 5 and back over 90 bucks. Legacy Reserves (LGCY) continues to come back from the hedge fund unwind up 1.60 and over 23....5 points off the low. Martin Midstream (MMLP) K-Sea (KSP) and Natural Resource Parnters (NRP) all up 1 or more. A long list of fractional gainers including Crosstex (XTEX) Calumet (CLMT) Energy Transfer (ETP), Teppco (TPP) Duncan Partners (DEP) and a host of others.

Markwest Energy (MWE) is down 60 cents. Some headlines crossed on operational income guidance between 150 and 160 million. Atlas Resource(ATN), Global Partners (GLP) and a few others are down small fractions.

Dan Duncan makes another share purchase in Duncan Partners (DEP)..the second in 2 days.

Based on these hideous looking charts there are a couple of positives beginning to emerge and that is that we are entitled to a trading rally. And we may be at the beginning of one today.

Notice that the MLP index which has fallen off the cliff, crashed and burned has been stablizing. 2 trips down to the August 6th crash low and it held. MLPS are ridiculously oversold and we are certainly entitled to a trip back to the 200 day moving average around 307. That would be my first target. After that it may mean a long period of base building. And remember we are totally at the mercy of the overall market and if more shoes drop out there we could head back down to the lows.

Longer term the weekly chart offers some hope as the moving average support levels have held so far. That chart still says we have some downside work today in the next several weeks. The key will be the holding of the lows and we need time to put in a constructive base. One thing is for sure. Yields are far more attractive here then they were at the top and insiders are buying heavily in some MLPS so that is a definite vote of confidence.

This morning we have strong stock futures, Oil is up; Nat gas is down another 3 cents as it tries to hold $5.75. No corporate news this morning and no upgrades or downgrades at least so far.

Tuesday, August 21, 2007

Closed lower but by less than 1 point on the index. Want to let you know that Dan Duncan is doing some insider buying at Duncan Energy Partners (DEP). Also insiders buying at Genesis Partners (GEL). The big boys are telling us that MLP's are cheap or certainly better values here then they were 1 month ago. More news as it breaks.
Had to go to the eye doctor today and missed out on a good trade. Oh well. Meanwhile there seems to be a lot of tension building on the tape again. Tight range back and forth...if i had to bet we break to the upside and head up toward 13,400-13,600 on the dow. Meanwhile MLPS are a bit lower. The index off by a little less than 1 point. Legacy Reserves (LGCY) has been under almost unrelenting selling from some hedge funds and finally the stock is rallying back. It is today's biggest winner up 1 and change and back over 21. At its low last week the stock was yielding almost 9%. Oneok LP and EV Partners reported insider buys yesterday and both stocks are up fractionally.

Natural gas is down again to 5.85 from 7.25 last week. I'm not sure if it is impacting some of these guys who use a lot of hedging. Linn Energy is down 1 and change but it held up well compared to everything else and I could just be over-reading the situation. Hiland is down 1.59. And you have a number of fractional losers. Nothing is being driven by any corporate developements.

Take a good look at what has been happening duing this selloff. MLPS have repriced their traditional risk premium with the 10 year yield. And company insiders have used this opportunity to buy shares and in some cases with both hands. Take a look at the insider action at Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) Energy Transfer Equity (ETE) Oneok LP (OKS) E V Partners (EVEP) and several others. The buys are open market purchases which means these guys are putting their money where their mouth is. It certainly is a vote of confidence. Also Louis Navillier who is a stock market letter writer gave a goose to Terra Nitrogen (TNH) which is up nicely in the premarket by 2 points (according to the yahoo message board). In the interests of disclosure I am long the stock as i laddered in during the selloff.

MLPS finished well yesterday as the market rallied late in the day and took us up for the ride. Most MLPS closed near their highs of the day. This morning we are relatively quiet as stock futures are flat but firm. Natural gas continues to implode down another 15 cents. Oil is holding the 70 dollar level but its down another 50 cents as Hurricane Dean did not bring a disruption of supply. No corporate developements and no upgrades or downgrades.

Nice to have a relatively calm day yesterday. Lets see if we can make it 2 for 2.

Monday, August 20, 2007

Huge decline in Natural gas down over 90 cents. Oil and gasoline getting clobbered as well as Hurricane Dean will have no impact on the Gulf of Mexico energy areas. Meanwhile the overall market is lower but nothing tragic. MLPS are flat after being up 2 points on the index earlier.
Suburban Propane is up 1. Fractional gains and most of these are off their highs include Hiland LP(HLND) Hiland GP (HPGP) EV Partners (EVEP) Oneok LP (OKS), Inergy Holdings (NRGP) and Sunoco Logistics (SXL)

Nustar Holdings (NSH) is down 3 and that could be in reaction to gasoline which is down 10 cents. Duke Midstream (DPM) and Markwest Hydrocarbon (MWP) are down 2 each. 1 point minus signs in Copano (CPNO) Linn Energy (LINE) Breitburn (BBEP)...fractional minus signs in Buckeye Holdings (BGH) Regency (RGNC) Alliance Holdings (AHGP) and a few others.

Its not often you see 1 dollar moves in natgas and UNG is down 5 dollars. I guess its the energy markets turn to deflate.

A fresh Monday morning and now we see whether we get any followthrough to Friday's rally off the discount rate cut. First off from the standpoint of sentiment there seems to be a universal conclusion that the sell off is not over and that we need a retest at least. This is an unscientific observation of all the CNBC guests. So that is actually a good sign. I was hoping for a small up open today and watch to see whether they can build it as the day wears on. I think that will be the best outcome. MLPS should see some more firming of prices but of course I will continue to have my eye out on any hedge or quant funds that will be liquidating into strength. Thanks to reader Bruce for providing at least some evidence that hedge funds did a major liquidation. Passport Global Master fund which is a hedge fund sold over 200,000 shares of Legacy Reserves (LGCY) as per a filing with the SEC. They own more than 5% of the shares so they had to file. The sale was on August 7th. I'll be looking around for more clues of shares being tossed out the window.

The energy complex is taking a hit this morning especially natural gas which made it to a 7 handle and is selling off hard as Hurricane Dean will track well south of the main producers in the Gulf of Mexico. Nat gas is down 60 cents or nearly 10%. Oil and gasoline are down as well. But the energy stocks are trading off the overall stock market for the most part of the last few weeks.

No corporate news this morning but we have an upgrade this morning of Universal Compression (UCLP) which is taken to outperform from market perform thanks to our friends at Wachovia.

The charts of the MLP index are for your enjoyment below. First off on the daily chart; it looks ugly. But we are deeply oversold. On the weekly chart it looks a little more contained and the 89 day moving average at 286 has held here as it held back a year ago.

So we are due for an oversold rally for sure but no signs yet of a firm longer term bottom in the daily chart. We have some work to do here.

So lets cross our fingers that we can have a nice relatively quiet uneventful up day. Headlines this morning as they break.

Sunday, August 19, 2007

Weather is cloudy and rainy here in ny so with nothing to do i am waitng for asia to open at 6pm. Dollar is up a little against the yen so the dollar yen implosion doesn't seem to be happening. Also Asia is playing catch up to NY and the discount rate cut.

I googled some arcticles from August September 1998 to remind me what took place back then and it was very interesting. The down sold off over 20% from 9300 to 7300 and made its bottom on 8/31. Labor day weekend Greenspan made a speech that the asia crisis was a threat to growth in the US. The markets saw that as code for easing of the fed funds rate. Bernake and the fed told us Friday that easing of the fed funds rate is coming and they are aware of what is going on. Also read this piece from Barrons and how the fed's move to cut the discount rate takes us back to the Volcker fed; something that Barron's likes very much.

Early trading has S&P futures down slightly but its early in the game here. I think it would be nice just to see the market stablize so we can calm things down a bit.

Friday, August 17, 2007

Over 1 million shares of Legacy (LGCY) Partners have traded and the stock seems to be finally coming off the selling pressure its been under. Volume says to me that somebody was unwinding this one from a hedge fund or something similar.

Last hour...looking for another short covering burst after 3:30pm. But i rule nothing out.
Noticing the MLP index is now up 3 points with some upticks coming in. Getting more convinced that somebody was unwinding and may be done.
Actually the more i look at the action here the more i'm convinced that some hedge fund is using todays MLP strength at the open to unwind positions. Dow rally picking up some stream again up 181 should help. I think once the unwinding is done MLPS could firm up during the afternoon. Thats not to say that there aren't winners today; there are some nice moves in a bunch of MLPS but the index should be up more that 2.50 on a day like today.
btw i'm not sure what the number was but Cramer said we would see the largest one day point gain in history today....good luck. Also said the fed finally listened to him. Isn't that fabulous!
I can't get a handle on this today after the discount rate cut. Dow up 122 and the MLP index which was up 6 is up only 2 and change. Maybe some funds are using strength to lighten up...maybe not. I also don't like this fade from the high of plus 320 but then again it could just be a fake out. Who knows. I do know i am getting a headache watching all this and it is particularly frustrating that some of my mlps can't hold a rally. But then again its the last hour that counts and people will have the weekend. And i am long Legacy Partners (LGCY) but can somebody please explain to me why this one just keeps going down irrespective of the sell off. It should be up today on a reflex rally and its actually down. Raised distribution didn't help. Three upgrades didn't help either.

Maybe it will be like yesterday as everybody waits until 3:30 and if there are no market on close orders the shorts will cover again. I'm holding out hope that MLPS will head back to the highs this afternoon but frankly i'm not holding my breath.
Bernanke cuts the discount rate. Markets are rallying rapidly! AG Edwards downgrades Alliance Holdings (AHGP) to hold from buy.

The key to the overall market this morning will be after we settle through the open which will be lower. I actually like down opens better especially after a day like yesterday because we have a chance to flush out more sellers and then we can see what happens after thats done. Crosscurrents galore today with yen carry trades, options expiration, etc etc. And of course there is always the question of another hedge fund liquidation. So we fasten our seatbelts again and hope. At least this morning they are not liqidating commodities and no one is going to be short energy going into a weekend with Hurricane Dean heading westward and is forecast to strengthen to a category 4. So mlps will do whatever they will do as there was wild action yesterday so there will be more wild action today. Btw dow diamonds forecasting a 100 point down open on the dow and 11 ponts on the S&P. Not good but not tragic.

This morning UBS is upgrading Energy Transfer Equity which it had as a sell. You don't see sell recs that often but they move it to a hold. Might be the reason that the stock did a 5 point turn around yesterday. No corporate developements this morning.

BTW watch the financials since they led the recovery late yesterday and they will continue to lead us one way or the other. Also 12518 is the intraday low on the dow yesterday so we'll see if thats the line in the sand.

Thursday, August 16, 2007

I'm still amazed at some of the moves late in the day like Energy Transfer Equity which traded under 30 and closed over 35! Now we wait for tomorrow which i think should see a continuation of today's late rally.

Okay some charts for you

Ugly but 280 held today so i think we go back over 300 and start base building. Also mommentum on this leg down was less than last week. Positive volume divergence.

Meanwhile its the Dow Diamonds chart (DIA) which is clearly oversold and overdue for some sort of reflex rally.

And Terra Nitrogen which i went long again in the upper 60s and closed near 74. Looks like 5 waves down with the 200 day moving average holding and well overdue for a few days upside and a trip to the upper 80s at the very least. Also made a new low for the move today but the selling pressue and volume diminished into the drop. Good reversal up close. I think we could get back to 89 day moving average just on a reflex. For this stock its not impossible. Also note that the 200 day moving average support has held in here and we have closed 3 points above it today.

Btw i use fibbonacci numbers for moving averages. I find they work well. 34,55,89,144 are the ones i use. And i use the 200 day because everyone else does.

Dow and S&P futures higher ahead of the asia session. Should be an interesting overnight session.
An amazing comeback for a few of these issues in the last 10 minutes. Eagle Rock (EROC) closed up nearly 2 dollars after being down 2 dollars all day long. Duke Midstream (DPM) traded down to 40 dollars and closed at 46. Atlas Energy Resources (ATN) was down in the 29 area and rallied to 31.65 at the close. Terra Nitrogen (TNH) was down to 66 and closed at 74! The MLP index was down to 281.77 and closed at 290 down just 6 points (i can't believe i said just!). I would expect the rally to continue tomorrow and the mlps that did not come back at the close today should make up some of that ground back tomorrow.

On alert for after hours news.
Crosstex (XTXI) is the only winner but there has been a slow move away from the lows. The MLP index is down 11 and change. Terra Nitrogen is down 1 and change after dropping to 66 and back to 71. Dow down less than 100 points.
Market staging a serious rally as it claws back from minus 350. MLPS will catch up later but the index is off its lows down 12 points. No mlps are up but some are now off the lows and if the rally is really and they are finally done...we should see some plus signs appearing.

Laddered into Terra Nitrogen (TNH) average around 69. Now in the green there.
They are starting to move the bank and brokerage stocks...Goldman is running as it cuts its losses. Merrill is is almost even. Dow back over 12600. MLP index near 283! Fingers crossed here.
AMZ index new day low at 281.77...280 approaching.
The old saying about the light at the end of the tunnel. They never tell you that light is a freight train. Dow down 240 and off the low of minus 265. The AMZ MLP index is down 13 and sitting just above the 280 low from last week. Everything is down in the group. Holly (HEP) Oneok LP (OKS) Energy Transfer Equity (ETE), Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) Williams Partners (WPZ) Magellan Midstream (MMP) Penn Virgian Holdings (PVG) Breitburn(BBEP) all down 3 or more. 2 point or more minuses in Natural Resource (NRP) Nustar (NS), Amerigas (APU) Teppco (TPP), Global Partners (GLP), Markwest (MWE) Boardwalk Partners (BWP) and Atlas Pipeline (APL). 1 point minuses in Kinder Morgan (KMP), Atlas Resource (ATN) Duke Midstream (DPM), Linn Energy (LINE) Copano (CPNO) and so forth and so on.

While i am posting Crosstex (XTXI) just turned higher. Yippee!!!

In free fall with everything else. Hopefully the world doesn't come to an end anytime soon.
No signs of implosion for MLPS yet. Most of the ones that have opened appear to orderly but lower. Index down 3 points. Overall market actually trying to rally in here. Mlp index now down 7 as just about everything is open. 2 point minuses in Nustar(NS) and Duke Midstream (DPM). A very long list of 1 point minuses. Crosstex (XTXI) is the only plus sign.

The russell is up 5 points this morning.

Hate putting it in those terms but i suppose it has that "can you please get it over with feeling so i can get some sleep!" The Yen/dollar implosion last night continues this morning. The fed has stepped in with 14 day system repo's which seems a little bit more aggressive. Dow and S&P futures off the lows. Personally i like hard down opens because they have chance of bringing about that selling climax where they can mount a sustained rally. The under 13000 close and the 10% correction point will get press. So we sit and wonder if there is another hedgefund liquidation coming involving MLPS. Watch the 280 level on the index if it gets retested. Thats 16 points from here but if there is another forced liquidation by somebody it can get there in a hurry...and could be another chance to buy on the cheap for the very brave among you.

Okay no news on the corporate front. No upgrades or downgrades. RBC reminds us this morning that Markwest Energy (MWE) is an outperform...which in this market means you might be down less than everybody else! Matrix Research upgrades Terra Industries (TRA) the GP of Terra Nitrogen (TNH) to a strong buy.

Will live blog the open this morning.

Wednesday, August 15, 2007

Pretty ugly out there. We are being pulled down with everything else. The MLP index was down 4 points and just off the lows of the day but it remains 16 points above last Monday's reaction low at 280. I have to think that will hold unless there is another hedge fund or 2 out there waiting to do another wholesale dump. These stretches are never fun...difficult to trade...and make you want to curse at the screen if you are a trade. Investors long term, for you, just another chance to get these things on the cheap.

One thing is for sure. On a yield basis the spreads which on some of the growers in the group were in some cases 0 or even slightly negative to the 10 year have widened back to 2 to even 3 points in the other direction. So the repricing of risk continues. Atlas Pipeline Partners (APL) is going to a 4 dollar distribution next year which gives you a going foward yield right now of almost 8.6%! or nearly 4 points above the 10 year! I would think this is a screaming buy in here but who knows. If the sell off spirials out of control who knows how low these things will get!

No after market news of consequence so far. Clarice the doe in "Rudolph The Rednosed Reindeer" sang the solo...there's always tomorrow for dreams to come true!"

But then again what did she know. She was the root of all his problems.
Several rally attemps today where they took em back over 13100 but nothing has held so far...and 12950 is the bottom and thats held a couple of times. Lots of tension on the tape as Ed Hart used to say. Meanwhile MLPS are 1 point lower on the index; just under 300. Most issues are down; just a few winners. Holly Partners (HEP) is up 1. Duke Midstream (DPM) Kinder Morgan(KMP) and Nustar (NS) are fractional winners.

Hiland LP (HLND) Atlas Resources (ATN) Calumet (CLMT) Penn Virginia Holdings (PVG) and Buckeye Holdings (BGH) are all down 1 or more. The rest are fractional losers.

Tape is very oversold here...they got to bounce em soon but in bear moves they can stay oversold for a long long time.

At least from this standpoint this morning but who knows what will creep up in the next hour and a half. Dow Diamonds (DIA) are trading at 12980 right now down about 60 points. Two things that may come into play this morning are the CPI. If its a good number it may give the fed room to set up for an easing down the road (October?). The other issue this morning are the energy markets which are higher this morning on tropical storm Dean and a depression in the the Gulf of Mexico. The latter will not have time to do much but Dean could be formidable down the road and guidance takes it west into the Carribbean as a major hurricane so that could be a Gulf of Mexico threat down the road. That might at least put a bid under anything related to energy but with the high level of tension in the overall market; if a big selloff developes it may just mean this group will be down the least. So much uncertainty does not make for a good day but who knows. We're down nearly 700 points since last Wednesday so maybe they may try a stage a bounce of some kind today. Also we don't know if there are other hedge funds out there ready to unwind their carry trades although i would suspect that now that we've repriced the risk back into MLPS the downside might not be as extreme as what we saw that Monday morning August 6th when the index dropped 26 points or nearly 10% before rebounding.

Some good news last night if you are an E V Partners (EVEP) unit holder as they came out with earnings and pre-announced a 6 cent distribution increase for next quarter to 56 cents! So this one has a going foward yield now of 6.7% or 2 points above the 10 year and well above the yield low of nearly 5% or almost no 10 year spread about 6 or 7 weeks ago. A lot more compelling in here at 33-34 than at 43-44!.

No other breaking news so far this morning and no upgrades or downgrades on the board yet. Yesterday there were a whole slew of upgrades in the group but when the market is cratering they don't have a whole lot of impact.

Tuesday, August 14, 2007

13000 on the dow and by coincidence 300 on the MLP index all trying to hold here as the selling continues. The MLP index is down 3 points on the day and at the low. Holly LP (HEP) Oneok LP (OKS) and Eagle Rock (EROC) all down 2 points or more. The list of losers is fairly long. Only a few issues remain higher including Transmontaigne up 1 and change but well off its high. Hiland LP(HLND) Nustar (NS) Atlas Pipeline (APL) are fractional winners but i don't know for how much longer if they throw them out the window in the last hour.
Well they threw the kitchen sink at the market with the siezing up of the commerical paper market but it seems to be one isolated small fund. 13,000 was vunerable but it held...losses have been cut in half. Meanwhile MLPS were up 3...then down 2 on the index and are now rallying back to just a 50 cent loss. News drivers with earnings...Eagle Rock (EROC) is down nearly 2. Linn Energy (LINE) down a little less than 1 point. Transmontaigne (TLP) up 2 on the double upgrade. Atlas Pipeline (APL) gets an upgrade from SMH Capital and they are up a fraction...Holly Partners (HEP) gets the same upgrade and they are down 1 point.

Everybody out to lunch so lets see what happens this afternoon. Your guess is as good as mine.

Back over 300 on the MLP index after a 5 point gain yesterday. And it looks like the rally will continue to start today as nothing blew up last night and everyone seems to be settling down. We will be getting our distribution checks tomorrow which is a reminder of being nicely paid to hold em. Lots of bargains out there especially on a yield basis.

Transmontaigne..............................7.00% 5.19%
Energy Transfer Partners.............6.80% 5.09%
Nustar..............................................6.20% 5.31%
Kinder Morgan Partners...............7.00% 5.96%
Atlas Pipeline Partners..................7.20% 6.20%

These are just a few examples that from a yield perspective i think we have now returned to fair value here and certainly we're in a much cheaper place to buy shares.

Newswise Linn Energy (LINE) waited until 10pm last night to issue earnings. I don't know why they do this under the cover of darkness but the press release looks ok and the company restated the pre announced 7 cent distribution increase for Q4 to 63 cents a share. I think this is part of the reason why Linn did not drop nearly as much as the other MLPS since it has a going foward yield of 7.2% so there was no yield premium in the stock price.

I mentioned Transmontaigne (TLP) in the yield group because they ahve a double upgrade this morning as Wachovia goes to outperform from market perform and Citigroup goes to buy from hold. This one has dropped from 38 to 28 in this selloff.

Its an early post to start the day. As of this post energy futures are higher and natural gas broke through 7 dollars yesterday on possible tropical storm activity and heat in the south. Stock futures are higher but off their highs this morning and a little below fair value. And rates on bonds are stable this morning as we wait for ppi.

Headlines as they break this morning.

Monday, August 13, 2007

Fairly productive day here...MLPS up nicely and near the highs of the day. Overall market stablizing with an upside bias. Good calming action overall. Many MLPS set to go out near the highs of the day. Terra Nitrogen (TNH) is up 6. Calumet (CLMT) is up 3 along with Energy Transfer Partners (ETP). Holly Partners (HEP) is up 2 and change.

On the losing side Breitburn (BBEP) is down 2 but all over the place at times. Same for Penn Virginia Holdings (PVG) which is down 1 and change. Crosstex (XTXI) is down 1.

Fingers crossed for the close.
Holding up well during lunchtime. Some of the leaders are extending their gains. Calumet (CLMT) joins the 3 point winners list. Suburban Propane (SPH) is up 2 and a bit more. All in all its a nice stablizing enviornment. No wild fast runaway moves...just some calm to restore confidence.
So far so good today. The MLP index is up over 5 points to 3o3 and change. Terra Nitrogen (TNH) is up nearly 6. 2 point plusses in Calumet(CLMT) Oneok(OKS) Sunoco Logisitics (SXL), Alliance Resource (ARLP)and Energy Transfer Partners (ETP). One point plus signs in Williams Partners (WPZ), Holly Partners (HEP) Hiland LP (HLND) and Kinder Morgan (KMP) and a few others.

Penn Virginia (PVG) is down nearly 2 as the biggest loser. Eagle Rock(EROC) is down 1.46 but that one was up nearly 3 dollars on Friday. A few other fractional losers but nothing tragic and nothing news driven.

So far so good with the overall market so hopefully we can rally for a few days.
Futures are strengthening this morning as Goldman gets a 3 billion dollar investment into some of its funds plus they wait for its press conference on what is going on. Meanwhile at least we don't seem to be facing a hedge fund blow up like last Monday so we should clear 300 on the MLP index at the open. Where we go from there depends on the overall market as the tail continues to wag the dog.

No breaking corporate news so far this morning. Hiland GP (HPGP) gets upgraded to market perform from underperform from Wachovia.

I did a rare Sunday post so keep reading if you haven't already. Headlines as they break.

Sunday, August 12, 2007


That pretty well describes last week in MLP land. I've been reading anything and everything i can get my hands on with regards to everything that has happened last week and i think we need to step back for a few minutes and realize a few facts.

1. The rally in MLPS took us to a place of overvaluation. The MLP index ran from 270 to 340 in 10 months with barely a pullback. That is a 26 percent gain plus 4 distributions giving you an annual return of over 32%. Now at 298 we're up 8% plus distributions or annual return of 15%...much more reasonable.

2. All through this selloff there has not been a single corporate developement that i could find that has driven any of this selloff. In fact we've seen good earnings, distribution increases, buy recommendations by some of the brokerages etc etc. Only Natural Resource Partners reduced its Distributable cash flow estimates for the next few quarters due to some snags.

3. Much of last Mondays' 25 point crash debacle had to do with some hedge fund having to liquidate into a spooked market with no buyers...hence 6 point gap collapses in many MLPS...most of the damage was repaired by Wednesday.

4. The overall market is dictating the pace so until the credit crisis gets resolved we are going to be subject to occasional blow ups. Traders should tread cautiously...investors for the long term are getting a prolonged MLP sale to buy into.

I bought some Atlas Resource Partners (ATN) on Friday. With the distribution going to 2.40 next year I think this one is cheap and playable.

Meanwhile the MLP index chart looks like a bomb hit it but sharp rallies may come at anytime.

Meanwhile last week Crosstex (XTXI) broke out to new all time highs on good earnings and the prospect for a resumption of distribution increases going foward. Chart is one of the few in the group that looks good.

Linn Energy also doesn't have a half bad looking chart as they are going to a 2.52 distribution in the fourth quarter which has already been pre-announced. This of course assumes there recent 2 billion dollar deal goes through...have no reason to think it won't since they did a private equity placement already to finance it.

So some things to ponder here on a rare Sunday post. I'm back to normal tomorrow so i will be posting as usual. So far no headlines in Europe and nothing on the wire here indicating a major blowup. The fed drew the line in the sand Friday so if things stay calm overnight we could see a nice relief rally least i hope so!

Friday, August 10, 2007

Sorry for the lack of posts today but i drove back from Saratoga yesterday...5 hrs on the road...and had to be at work at 3am...and did not get out until 1pm. Needless to say my brain was fried from lack of sleep. And from what i could see of today's trading it was absolutely nuts. I bottom fished some more Terra Nitrogen (TNH), Took a fresh position in Crosstex LP (XTEX) at the open and also bought Atlas Resource Partners (ATN) this morning...all three closed higher for me from their purchase prices.

I will be back to normal blogging on Monday.

Thursday, August 09, 2007


I am going to live blog the open here...futures down huge..30 points on the S&P. The question is was monday the day hedgefunds did their whole sale dumping of MLPS or are there more out there? Earnings out this morning on Crosstex LP (XTEX) which look very good. Also RBC upgrades Legacy Partners to outperform from market perform. All of this will be somewhat meaningless at the open if hedgefunds are chucking stocks out the window.

Okay here are some early openers. Legacy is trading up nearly 1 dollar! Now there is a surprise. But it has given almost ll of it back. Crosstex is up 1 on earnings. Some earlier openers indicate no wholesale least for now. Nustar opens higher. Penn Virginia Holdings opens higher.

Alliance Resource Holdings(AHGP) is down 2. Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) is down 1. So far its nothing like Monday morning. The MLP index is down 2 points and change. Not everything is open yet.

Update..10am...everything in MLP is opened. Nothing overly tragic really. The index is down less than 3 wholesale dumping.

I will be on the road today heading back from Saratoga and Lake George. I will post this evening when i get home.

Wednesday, August 08, 2007

Just got back from fishing. Caught 21 fish including a nice 14 inch small mouth bass. Threw em all back...very nice day.

And a very nice afternoon as i am taking some lunch here and i want to watch my horse Farleyshelonwheels who is running in the 4th race i think. I just heard the track announcer say something. Not sure what.

Okay back to MLPS where the index is 3 points higher moving with the overall market which is up 100 points on the dow. Global Partners is down 1 as is Constellation Energy. Both selling off on some earnigns news. Holly Partners (HEP) is down another 1 point; another one that has not bounced off the big selloff. Fractional losses in Eagle Rock (EROC) Atlas Resource (ATN) Linn Energy (LINE) Legacy Partners (LGCY); that one has cut its losses.

On the winning side Terra Nitrogen(TNH) is up nearly 7. Calumet (CLMT) Nustar (NS) and Crosstex (XTXI) were up 2. Crosstex was up nearly 5 a few minutes ago. Crosstex LP (XTEX) is up 1 and change as are Alliance Resource Holdings (AHGP) Natural Resource Partners (NRP) Penn Virginia (PVG) and Genesis (GEL).

Back to the highs of the day on the overall market. Trend should hold in our group although i'm wondering about the non bouncers!

The fed pissed off everybody yesterday which means they probably did the right thing so the markets got whippsawed and then extended their rally. MLPS bounced sharply higher up 11 and change and we are back to Friday's close and over 300. This morning we have earnings to ponder from Copano(CPNO), Calumet(CLMT), Legacy(LGCY),Constellation(CEP) and Martin Midstream Partners (MMLP). I put all the news links on one page. Also this morning Friedman Billings is upgrading Natural Resource Partners (NRP) to buy from hold. That one has been beaten dow severely in this selloff.

A couple of notes. I have been wondering why Williams Partners (WPZ) has not bounced at all from the selloff. Well "Factoids" posted the following on the Yahoo Williams message board.

WPZ currently has one of the lowest payout ratios [based on DCF estimates] in the pipeline MLP sector - and I tend to view that as a good thing. Low payout ratios tend to lead to higher than sector average distribution increases. And WPZ's 4% plus rise in the Q1 distribution is evidence of that.But I was discouraged by WPZ's remarks that indicated that WPZ will conintue that have higher than typical distribution coverage [or a low distribution/DCF ratio] because the current margins - which have been high - are potentially not sustainable long term. So it is prudent of them not to raise the distribution to a higher percentage of DCF. While that alone is not a concern, WPZ already is selling at a higher than sector average price/DCF. I am using a blended estimate from multiple brokerages - and that estimate is $2.98 - with the price/DCF currently being over 14 while most in the sector sell in the 13s. I would logically believe that if you required higher than sector average coverage ratios, then you should have lower than sector average price/DCFs.Of course, the price/DCF is influenced by expect distribution growth. And WPZ does have the expectation of higher growth. So that is the biggest part of the story that explains their current price/DCF. But WPZ was pretty tight lipped in their conference call. They were very limited in their 2007 guideance. They would not even give cap ex guideance. So to me, buying WPZ today is like buying a high priced pig in a polk - something conventional wisdom would tell one NOT to do.When WPZ was asked what their plans were for drop downs in assets from Williams in 2007, they replied: We offer no guidance on that other than to say what our parent company has already said - that Williams has a deep and growing stable in midstream assets that would enable them to do drop downs at a pace of one to one and a half billion dollars in assets per year - but that is not a committment, but a statement of 'inventory'.Are they going out of their way to make potential unit holders like me uncomfortable? Or - are the p!ssed at the analyst and do not realize that potential unit holders are listening? Heck if I know. I liked a lot of what I heard in the call [growing well connects, great assets, a future of drop downs from Williams and the purchase of third party assets]. But I really did not like the lack of 'visibility'. Some MLPs have a good story to tell - and are 'selling' you on investing with them during their calls. This call did not have that 'selling' attribute.Well, at least that was my impression. Am I alone in that?

Then there is this absolute stroke of timing brilliance that appeared in the Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) board last week before the collapse.

I am a numbers guy - and I use models to determine my expectations of price movements. So I input the numbers from approx 2PM EDST to see how ETP - and the MLP midstream sector looked. Some findings: without cutting the EPS and DCFs for ETP - but cutting my CAGR forecast for ETP from 10%/annum to 6% per annum - and at a price of $51.81 - ETP is under-valued even at that slower growth rate [but only 5% under-valued] in a sector where most of the MLPs are over-valued. It is my current expectation that the FERC action will not hurt the 2007 DCFs and EPS - and the impact in 2008 is not going to be great. The increased flow to DCF and EPS from organic projects coming on line will overshadow any FERC impact. But a FERC impact SHOULD affect the CAGR projection. And I believe a 40% cut [to 6%] is a cut on the high side - but it is probably safest to be a little pessimistic. ETP at a six percent yield with ONLY six percent distribution growth [DANG! it hurts to cut growth to THAT low of an estimate] still should net a 12% total return. Which means about an average return for a mature MLP in the high IDRs. We are accustomer to much better perfromance. But that is still probably market beating performance. Year to date the average old timer MLP [APL , BPL , EEP , EPD , ETP , KMP , MMP , MWE , NS , OKS , PAA , SXL , TCLP , TPP] is up only 7.78% - and that is with a large and unsustainable yield compression during 2007.ETP - which is down 7.15% as I write this - is not even the MLP that has fallen the most since the start of the month. BPL is down 6.37%. CPNO is down 8.78%. DPM down 5.31%. MMP down 5.50%. OKS down 6.36%. PAA down 5.79%. SXL down 4.61%. TCLP down 4.46% TLP down 5.22%.XTEX down 4.09%.Should you sell? My gut reaction is NOT AT THIS PRICE!! But each of us has their own guts. Listen to your own. [Does that mean I have thought about selling? Yep.]Should you be buying? Probably not. The market tends to over-react. And it is my calculation that ETP has only fallen to an approximately fair price [if one dramatically cuts the CAGR projection - which I believe that market has correctly done]. I would say there is a fair chance that we will see ETP at $46 before we see it at $56 - not because that it logical - but because that just the way the market usually goes with a falling knife.Is the sector price correction over? Probably not. The MLPs eneded July with an average spread to the ten year's yield of 40 basis points [based on Q2 distributions]. It is at 100 basis points [now based on Q3 distributions] this afternoon. MLPs began the year at a 123 basis point spread. MLPs have have tough summers before - summer appears to be their off season. I thought the MLP sector was over-valued - and I would not be buying until I see spreads around 150. But that could be my 'greed' showing - hoping for a price to fall so it then looks attractive to me.

Of course that buying oppportunity in ETP lasted 1 day as it is back over 50. But just pointing out there are some people worth reading out there and Factoids is one of them.

Stock futures look good this morning...the energy complex is lower with natural gas flat at the moment. 10 year back to 4.81 which is probably a good thing the way this market has been. I am going fishing this morning for 3 hours out in Lake George so happy trading and hopefully i'll come back to higher prices.

Tuesday, August 07, 2007

Just got back from the lake... down 100 after the fed announcement and now up 50 and change. Nice move and nice moves in the MLPS...the index up 12 points which gets us back to Friday's close (wee!). Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) leads with way up 5. K-Sea Partners (KSP) is up 4. Suburban Propane (SPH) is up 3. EV Partners, Plains All American (PAA) and Nustar (NS) are up 2. 1 point plusses in a mile long list of issues.

2 oddities out there. Legacy Partners (LGCY) is down 30 bounce there. And Linn (LINE) never really sold off hard like the others and is basically unchanged. Also down are Alliance Resource Holdings (AHGP) about 90 cents worth, Breitburn is down also 1 but that one has a habit of rallying in the last 5 minutes.

My guess is everyone's portfolio looks a touch better today.

Hopefully a good night sleep and some liquor got you through the collapse open of yesterday. MLPS did manage to rally back from 281 to 296 but still left about 12 points on the table. The 300 point dow rally should spread out to MLPS today at least at the start and then we wait to see what the fed says. They better say something to keep the rally going or there could be a real mess on our hands. No corporate developements that I could find this morning and no upgrades or downgrades so far.

Whitewater rafting and a little lake action today as the vacation continues. Fingers crossed for an up day.

Monday, August 06, 2007

1000 page views today...has to be a sign we hit the bottom at 281!

Wife and kids are getting ready for dinner so it gives me a chance to take a deep breath. This morning was gut wrenching and in some cases devestating. As pointed out in the comments section from this morning's poster who put up some Citigroup comments on today...worth the read. Hedge funds were dumping and they are done i believe. We got back 2/3 of the loss but not all. I suspect you will see MLPS playing catch up at the open tomorrow. Not that we are getting back to even but the yield spread between MLPS and the 10 year was down at or even below zero in some at least we are getting back to the low end of the normal range of about 2 pct points for the growers and 3% for the non growers.

I really picked a great time to be away didn't i? Hey Terra Nitrogen (TNH) was basically flat today which in this enviornment was like being up 10. This one goes ex-distribution tomorrow by 3 bucks. Natural Resource Partners (NRP) was down nearly 4 on earnings and they are cutting their estimates on distributable cash flow going foward. Eagle Rock Partners (EROC) announces its distribution and the record date is 8/8 which means they are retroactively ex-distribution...i think.

So i have to hit the shower now...hopefully we will finally get a well deserved bounce tomorrow. We are entitled to rally back quite aways...we went from 340 to 280 in a flash so a rally back to 310 or a 50% retracement of the move down is doable. After that who knows. I know we probably have a lot of work to do building a base in here.
What was particularly amazing about this morning was that it took about 10 trading days to wipe out all the gains of the last 10 months. The low on the MLP index was 281.20 and we've been rallying back furiously since we hit this around 10:30 this back to 296 and change with 30 minutes to go. MLPS are well off their astounding lows of this morning. At one point this morning Atlas Pipeline Partners (APL) was down to 42.62 and the yield spiked to 8.62% or almost 4 points over the 10 year. So we've seen the yield spread adjustment perhaps finally reach its peak this morning. Also this morning illistrates what happens when hedge funds hold your stocks which are not very liquid and everybody ran to the exits at the same time. Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) and Hiland LP (HLND) were down an astounding 10 points this morning!

Anyway just got back from horseback riding and am heading to the lake for a swim.
bqI guess i picked a great time to be away from this debacle. The MLP index is down a whopping 17 points or 5.74%. They threw them literally out the window this morning and they just keep falling floor after floor after floor. Nothing is up. Everything is down..and we have losses in some of the big boys like Nustar (NS) and Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) down 6 points each! So if you were ever looking for an opportunity to buy cheaper and in a panic....maybe this is the day!

I am going horseback riding and hope to come back to something....anything.

Saturday, August 04, 2007

Yes it's vacation time for me for the next 5 days. I will be back on Friday. I will try and post daily but i will be limiting myself to 1 or 2 posts at most. The last 2 weeks have fried me mentally so i need some down time. I will be gambling at Saratoga and i have what appears to be a talented horse running Wednesday at Monmouth Park..Harleyshelonwheels. No guarantees from the management. But i need some mindlessness for a few days. Of course Monday is filled with drama and more than likely it will be in the back of my mind. Maybe at 9:15am the fed will announce a 50 basis point rate cut and a statement saying they are standing by to offer liquidity. Then the dow rallies 500 points and the MLP index jumps 15 points. Wishful thinking on my part. So on to the spa and Lake George and everything that goes with it.

Friday, August 03, 2007

This has to be the worst period for MLPS in a long long time. Certainly in the last 5 years i can't remember 2 days like this back to back. The index is down another 6 points and is sitting below its 200 day moving average for the first time since last September. Global Partners (GLP) is the biggest loser in point terms and percentage terms down 3 and change or nearly 10%. No news is really driving anything today. Its just a sheer mess. Somehow Copano Nustar Holdings and Plains All American are holding on the tiny gains.

Vacation next week so again posting will be minimal. Truthfully after this week i need to get away from all this for a few days or else i'll go crazy.
Just broke through the 200 DAY moving average at 308.10. MLP index in free fall.
We're at the lows of the day at 309.50 down 4.11. The 200 day moving average is just ticks below us. Rest of the market kind of holding its own. Not many winners on the list today. The selling in here continues with little respite. I keep looking for glimmers of hope but they are very hard to find.
We've been in a 15 tick range for the last hour or so on the MLP index about 75 cents above the days low. Nustar which was down 2 dollars at the open is actually up 2 cents! Atlas Pipeline(APL) was down 2 then up .50 now down a few ticks. K-Sea Partners was down 3 and change but now is down less than 2. Constellation (CEP) is down 2 dollars even though it did announce a deal this morning. So i'm just waiting to see if the other shoe is going to drop this afternoon.

I've been building a postiion in Terra Nitrogen (TNH) which goes ex-distribution on Monday. This one has been sold down hard from 140 to 90 in a matter of days so i'm hoping they bounce it soon or the pit in my stomach is going to get pretty big!
Down 4 points on the MLP index at 310.00. The actual 200 day moving average number is at 308.72. The low was 309.55
Down 4 points on the MLP index at 309.62. The actual 200 day moving average number is at 308.72.
Touching the 200 day moving average. If they are ever going to mount a rally..this is the spot to do it.
Desperately trying to hold 310 on the MLP index.
Drip Drip Drip Drip Drip...down 2.75 on the MLP index,
Well so far after working through the open we have the MLP index down near 312. Not exactly a vote of confidence being down 1.50 but so far holding yesterday's low. Nustar(NS) opened down 2 and remains lower. Buckeye Partners(BPL) also down nearly 2. Atlas Pipeline (APL)had a few trades down 1.50 but is now unchanged. Oneok (OKS) is up 1 on the Citigroup upgrade.

I think we are going to move with the overall market today. Dow down 90 points on a slow bleed. Nat gas up 14 cents right now. Hopefully no free fall developes and we can stablize in here.
Buckeye Partners priced an offering of shares yesterday and the stock is trading in the premarket down 2 and change. Employment numbers will be a non starter...maybe a touch weaker but ultimately the market will go on its merry volitile way. Stock futures a little weaker down 3.40 on the S&P.

Btw i will be on vacation next week up at the racetrack at the spa (Saratoga)! After this week i have to get away from this for awhile so my posts next week will be limited to the open and the close if i can get wireless access in the mountains of upstate New York.
Breaking news as Constellation Energy (CEP) does another deal of over 100 million dollars. Also we have earnings from Genesis Partners.
Breaking news as we have earnings on Atlas Pipeline Partners which has the Anandarko purchase in the mix. BTW the news reminds me of this point. As per the credit squeeze and the collapse of deals and the reason why MLPS may need to worry less about this is the fact that much of the recent deals are being financed through the priviate placement of equity. So while it may be harder to sell corporates in the bond market there is still high demand in the priviate world for MLP shares.

Note the link above will take you to the yahoo apl page and you can link to the news item. It was not available as of this posting.

What a day yesterday as MLPS at one point were down 3% or nearly 400 dow points before rallying back to a minus 6 close. The 144 day moving average is at 316 and we cut through that yesterday but at least we did not free fall to 309 which is where the 200 day moving average. That is one ugly chart so i have to wonder where we are going from here. Since the entire market is being repriced due to the credit collapse it seems we are being repriced as well. The spread between MLPS and the 10 year has widened considerably this week so we have had what one could call a painful adjustment.

Meanwhile one of yesterdays biggest losers was Oneok LP which came out with great earnings, raised guidance for the rest of the year on both earnings and distributable cash flow and the stock was ripped for nearly 5 points. Then after the close a bunch of trades crossed and brought the stock back to a less than one point loss. The reason was Citigroup which came out this morning and upgraded the stock to a buy from a hold. I also noticed some aftermarket trades at higher prices on a few other mlps like Energy Transfer (ETP) Sunoco Logisitics (SXL) and Global Partners (GLP). So depending on what happens with the employment numbers; should the market rally today i would have to imagine we are due for a nice bounce. For those of you who have been looking for a chance to buy at lower prices you have your opportunity.

Nothing else on the upgrade downgrade list. The energy complex is flat this morning. Stock futures are even as we wait for 8:30am and the 10 year is hovering near 4.79%.

Thursday, August 02, 2007

Also btw another big distortion in the MLP index was Buckeye Partners (BPL) which priced a stock offering today. The stock was down over 2 points and dropped another point and change after the close.

Btw if there is a contrary indicator i had a huge spike in page views today...approaching 800. This could be a sign of climax bottom!
Well we finished off the lows but still down hard for the day as we closed a little over 314.
After the market closed Linn Energy announces a small purchase of 20 million.

I have been asked to address 2 regarding Oneok LP (OKS) and why it was down hard one point down over 4 points. They had earnings out yesterday and they increased guidance for this year,. For whatever reason they nailed this one to the wall but i will tell you that there were a bunch of trades well above the 4pm close...close to the 66 level in after hours.

As per the socialists in congress and the mlp tax change. Lou posted about this in the comments section earlier and i have responded there and here for those who can't find it. This is my never to be humble opinion of course.

First off the tax change as written does not effect MLPs in our group but was written specifically for the blackstones of the world. Mr Schumer is a schrewd man. He knows that wall street is against this tax change and by suggesting that all mlps be taxed this way he is effectivly killing the proposal. Changing the tax structure for MLPS in the oil and gas industry will bring every congressman from those states screaming against this proposal.
Actually the biggest losers today were Oneok LP on an earnings disappointment and Energy Transfer Partners and Energy Transfer Equity as they deal with the FERC issue. Those had a big impact on the mlp index. The other big losers were among some of the bigger winners this year like Duke Midstream (DPM) Natural Resource Partners (NRP) among others

One other thought. If i remember correctly MLPS sold off in August of 2005 as oil made its first run to 80 dollars. In fact MLPS began their selloff around the same time 2 years ago! So perhaps high crude oil is viewed as a problem for some of these companies although i believe they are all hedged effectively. Or we could be seeing selling in a group which is up quite a bit for 2007 and ex distributions etc etc.

Hopefully the bulk of the selling is done and we can build a new base in here somewhere.
Okay the victim is now off the map and staggering up...we're almost 2 points off the low as the dow rally is spreading even into our group.
Well the bleeding has stopped on the MLP index as they have stopped going down but its not as if the victim has gotten up. He remains out cold on the floor. The MLP index dropped to a low of 311.91 and we're up to 312.52 right now. A sign of hope is Terra Nitrogen which dropped all the way to 87 and is now within ticks of being down less than 1 point. Oneok is down 4 points as the biggest loser today.
Imploding to 312.50...down nearly 9 points on the mlp index.
About as ugly a day as we've had in a long long time....down 8 and change and at 313 on the mlp index. There actually are a few issues up like Nustar Holdings (NSH) General Marine (GMR) and Atlas Holdings (AHD) which are up fractions. The rest is hideous and the damage is extensive. Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) is down 3 and change. Oneok LP (OKS) is down 3 as well. Natural Resource (NRP) and Energy Transfer Equity (ETE) are down 2 as are Global (GLP) and Copano (CPNO). And a mile long list of 1 point minuses. It is just a mess out there.

Hoping the overall market holds up and that they find a bottom in here.
The mlp index is down 5 and is about 5 points away from the 200 day moving average with sits around 310. Very demoralizing today.
Not exactly a ringing endorsment here as MLPS continue to move lower. The mlp index is down nearly 3 to 318. Buying has yet to spread out on the broad list and we are one group with profits and they are selling some the ex-distribution stocks. So i think we need to watch the tape carefully today and hope the dow strength spreads out. Holly Partners (HEP) Oneok LP (OKS) and General Marine (GMR) lead the small list of winners today up fractions to 1 point.

Losers list is long Terra Nitrogen (TNH) is down another 3. Alliance Resource Holdings (AHGP) is down 2. 1 point minueses in both Energy Transfers (ETE,ETP) E V Partners (EVEP) which is ex-distribution today and Natural Resource (NRP). The fractional losers list is a mile long.

Nothing especially surprising in the nat gas numbers and nat gas is down 7 cents. But watch for National Hurricane Center developments.
Some earnings news this morning as Williams Partners (WPZ) puts up numbers. Also General Marine (GMR) gets to upgrades this morning from Bear Sterns which goes from peer perform to outperform and Cantor Fitzgerald which goes from hold to buy. Meanwhile Steifel Nicholas cuts Alliance Resource (ARLP) and Alliance Holdings (ARLP) to hold from buy.

Stock futures getting stronger as we approach the open. Treasuries selling off a bit which may be a good sign for the overall market. But who knows these days.

And that this morning is the big question that lays before us. The violence of yesterday's last half hour rally just did not have time to spread out as the first things to go up are the obvious. The MLP index managed to get back 1 point from from a 6 point loss so i would expect it to play Catch up today. 320 puts a triple bottom floor on the chart.

Of course its a triple bottom as long as 320 holds. But the chart looks very tenuous here as the selloff has been hard and fast. At least for now its holding. Btw for those of you who like the 200 way moving average it s down around 310.

Some news from last night as we have earnings from Penn Virginia Resources and Penn Virginia Holdings.Numbers look okay at first glance.

Tropical activity is picking up as disturbed weather in the Carribbean appears to be orgainizing into a tropical depression based on the recent satellite loop. Look for natural gas to key off this should we get an upgrade to a depression or a tropical storm later today. Natural gas is up 7 cents overnight and barring a disastrous supply number at 10:30am gas could challenge Monday's intraday high up around 6.65-6.70

No corporate news this morning and no upgrades or downgrades so far. The ex-distribution cycle continues with Holly(HEP), Penn Virginia Holdings(PVG) Penn Virgina Resources (PVR) and Boardwalk going ex-distribution along with Magellen Midstream (MMP) Enbridge Energy Partnes (EEP) and a few others. Stock futures have been slowly strengthening this morning. Crude oil was sharply lower but has rallied back over 76 dollars. Crude hit a record intraday high yesterday. Tropics could be a driver here also.

Wednesday, August 01, 2007

Oh its ugly out there. The AMZ MLP index is down nearly 6 and is just a couple of ticks above 320. Global Partners (GLP), Holly Partners (HEP) and Crosstex (XTXI) are up just fractions and they are the only winners. On the downside Terra Nitrogen (TNH) is down 17! Calumet (CLMT) and EV Partners (EVEP) are down 2. Plains All American (PAA) Buckeye Holdings (BGH) Natural Resource (NRP)Copano (CPNO) Constellation (CEP) Alliance Resource (ARLP) Oneok LP (OKS) Atlas Resource (ATN) all down 1 point or more.

Dow down 5 going inot the last hour.
Getting close to the 320 level on the MLP index...looks like we're getting blown out of portfolios today. Only a few issues higher now as the borderline issues have gone negative. The dow has been all over the place and is down 24 right now after being up nearly 100 and down almost as much earlier. Nat gas remains 21 cents higher.
What a roller coaster ride this morning. The MLP index is down a little less than 3 points. Terra Nitrogen is down 13 at 96 and change and traded as low as 92 but that is a high priced MLP. Tortoise Energy (TYG) is down 2.50. E V Partners is down nearly 2. Oneok LP (OKS) Natural Resource (NRP), Penn Virginia Resources (PVR) Energy Transfer (ETP) all down 1.

Global Partners (GLP) and Amerigas (APU) and Holly Partners (HEP) are up 1 or more among the few winners. Natural gas is strong today getting back yesterdays decline...and the tropics could be heating up.

Dow has just pulled even after being up 75 then down 75...etc etc etc.
Watch the tropics as disturbed weather heading for the eastern carribbean could become a tropical depression later today. Natural gas up 10 cents right now.

Well it looked like a disaster but futures have improved considerably and now are only slightly lower. I misquoted the 10 year yield before...should have been 4.73%.

We managed a higher close on the MLP index yesterday while the overall market was imploding in the last hour. The sell off continues this morning in the pre-market so it looks ugly at the open. We're still getting through the ex-distribution cycle so if we have to endure a sell off at least we're getting out distribution checks.

No news this morning but we have Citigroup upgrading Magellan Midstream Partners (MMP) from hold to a buy. Some of the selling has spread into the commodities market with the energy complex down except for Natural Gas which is up about 5 cents. The ten year which at one point yesterday had climbed back to 4.85% is down to 4.73%. If this flight to quality continues we could be back to 4.50%.

So the focus will be the overall market as the dow nears 13000 and the S&P gets close to its 200 day movning average. Meanwhile MLPS will try to hold the 320 bottom which so far does not appear to be in danger. Headlines as they break this morning.