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Friday, June 29, 2007

A nice rally underway with MLPS near the 332 level and up 1.68 on the day although off its high. Terra Nitrogen is up 4. Duke Midstream is up 2. Holly Partners is up 1. Fractional plus signs in a large group of issues including Global Partners(GLP),Nustar(NS), Spectra Partners (SEP) Hiland LP and GP (HLND,HPGP), Williams Partners (WPZ),Buckeye (BPL) and Sunoco Logistics (SXL).

EV Partners is down fractionally along with Martin Midstream (MMLP), Energy Transfer Equity (ETE), and Nustar Holdings (NSH).

More end of quarter nonsense for the afternoon.

We ended Q1 on the MLP index at 314 and we are at 330 this morning as the last day of Q2 begins so we holding a 16 point gain or about a 5% gain (plus add another 1.5% or so for distribution) so a total return for the quarter of about 6 1/2%! Excellent in my view. And there have been some big winners this quarter especially among GP's like Buckeye Holdings (BGH) ,Nustar Holdings (NSH), Atlas Resource (ATN), Atlas Holdings among others. All of the above produced double digit percentage gains for the quarter.

Now of course the big question is what about the second half? Well we are now nine months into a bull move that began last October when the MLP index came off a 255 bottom and broke above 270 for the first time. We are 60 points above that now for a more than 20% gain plus 3 completed distribution cycles.

It has been excellent and I still see no sign of topping here but a few caution flags are in order. One is the 10 year note where the rate has crept up above 5%. 5.25% is the tipping point for me so we're okay here as long as that holds. The fed is friendly to us by doing nothing. Energy prices remain firm so demand remains strong. I am less concerned with stable or even falling energy prices (as long as its nothing catastrophic) by i will be concerned by any big spike that might be hurricane induced. 2 years ago MLPS made their top at the beginning of August 2005 and went into a sideways correction for the next 13 months. This came right as oil began its run to 80 bucks and a barrell and natural gas went to 15 bucks. These are things we should keep an eye on. Money flows into the group remain positive an interest in MLPS from new investors continues to increase. The Spectra ipo (SEP) of a few days ago shows that demand for MLPS remains quite strong.

As to what to watch, keep an eye on some underperformers like Crosstex Energy (XTEX,XTXI), Hiland LP (HLND) and for that matter any other MLPS that have not grown their distribution from quarter to quarter.

These 2 issues have gone nowhere recently as money flows into the growers. But should they get back on track they might emerge as leaders in the next run up or at least play catch up. Note that Crosstex (XTEX) has some other issues to deal with so do recognize that there is risk here should the distribution remain static for several more quarters. By the way for disclosure purposes i am long both Crosstex and Hiland and that i trade in and out of theses positions.

Now one other observation. In the last quarter if you had the choice of holding Apple Computer(AAPL), Research in Motion (RIMM) or Terra Nitrogen (TNH); which one would have made you the most money?

The winner...Terra Nitrogen of course with a 150% gain in the quarter verses a "miniscule"50% gains for the others plus you got a 6% plus yield. Who says owning tech is where to be when you could have made lots more money from a company that has lots of shit, knows its shit, and sells lots of shit! No guarantees btw that we'll be able to say this again next quarter. And this is no buy recommendation here by anymeans...just observing what has been going on. It really does pay not to have anyone pay attention to you. Better to make money quietly!

There is nothing on the news front this morning. No upgrades or downgrades. Futures just turned higher on stocks and the energy complex is firm. The 10 year rate is flat.

Finally, back to normal today as my horse yesterday finished a strong second in her race. I was very happy with her performance but i spend 7 hours driving back and forth in hideous traffic including sitting on the outerbridge crossing for 40 minutes as they cleared an accident at the top of the bridge. Wonderful!

Thursday, June 28, 2007


One of the consequences of becoming a more popular investment tool is that you start acting more and more like the market does. I think that is what we are seeing in many MLP issues like Terra Nitrogen (TNH) for example which took an 11 point hit or 9% yesterday on no news. I think you saw an end of quarter run-up into Tuesday's close (friday settlement) for those who want this stock on the books by 6/29 close. Now the sellers are booking profits. On the other hand I think Linn Energy was being sold out of portfolios in the last few weeks and that pressure came off yesterday and the stock rose on 100,000 shares+. I think it could continue to rise into tomorrow's close barring any news items. Such is life these days in MLP land.

Meanwhile E V Partners(EVEP) yesterday after the close announced the closing of an earlier announced deal and reminded unitholders that this will result in a distribution boost in the 3rd quarter (October).

The MLP index closed at 329.99 yesterday after the morning reversal. Today the fed meeting is the big player so once they get that out of the way and assuming therer are no surprises we should see more upside. This morning energy markets are firmer and natural gas is back over 7 dollars. Stock futures and the 10 year are flat as we wait for the fed.

Thanks to a poster yesterday for pointing out a new MLP on the market. Spectra LP (SEP) came public yesterday priced above the ipo range and closed well above it. Nice reception by the market and unlike Blackstone Group (BX) this one stays above the opening price in my view!

My horse is running today in the 6th race at Monmouth Park in New Jersey. Hallies Charm (7) will be trying 1 1/16th miles on the grass today and i think she has a shot. So i will be headed there today to hopefully stand in the winners circle. Post time is 3:07pm eastern and for those of you interested you can watch the race live on line. Just click on the broadband link.

Wednesday, June 27, 2007

Rally gathering steam this afternoon as we are hitting up against the 330 level. Buyers are picking up MLPS with both hands as energy rallies and the overall market is mounting a nice comeback off the morning lows. Buckeye Holdings(BGH), Genesis(gel), K-Sea(KSP), and Regency(RGNC) all up 1 or more. Plains All Amercian (PAA), Nustar (NS) Inergy (NRGY) Linn Energy (LINE), Teppcoi (TPP) and other up major fractions.

The losers list is thinning out a bit. Constellation (CEP) down 1.14. Global (GLP) is down .90. Smaller fractional losses in Hiland (HLND) Breitburn (BBEP), and Calumet (CLMT) but note that it would only take a handfull of buys in any of these to wipe out losses fairly quickly.

Terra Nitrogen (TNH) having one of its sharp corrections today...down 9 at 122.
They took em down...and then they took em up. It became obvious that the bearish energy numbers out this morning were priced in so when they came out the energy markets rallied. The MLP index is up 1.50 and is just under 329 and at the high of the day.

Terra Nitrogen (TNH)began one of its sharp corrections again. The stock is down 8 but off its low of the day at 121. Linn Energy (LINE) stopped going down today as it hit a 7%+ yield this morning and is now up near 33. K-Sea (KSP) is up 2 on its deal. Buckeye Holdings (BGH) is over 30 and up over 1. Lots of fractional gains elsewhere.

Constellation Partners (CEP) is down over a point. Fractional losses in Copano (CPNO) Breitbart (BBEP) and Duke Midstream (DPM) among others.

Look for the rally to build after traders digest lunch.

As always when using charts you can look at them and stake a position and then come up with every reason why you will be right...or wrong. Well i thought this mornning why not look at the usual suspects and see if we can come up with anything.

The AMZ MLP Index is in this sideways consolidation since hitting 335. 320 is the bottom of the range. I think the break will be to the upside eventually. Demand is still strong in the group. Deals continue which continue to drive up prices. 5.25% remains the top of the range in the ten year. This morning we are at 5.06%

Less clear to me is the DOW Industrail chart which also has been moving sideways. It has been foolish to get bearish on these pullbacks so if i had to guess once the fed meeting is down tomorrow we should rally.

Oil stocks still want to go higher and why not. These companies continue to make buckets of money as long as the price of crude sits over 60 bucks. Chart still looks bullish. No signs of a top.

And finally there is Terra Nitrogen (TNH). All i can say about this one is, its too bad the wayback machine can't take us back to when the stock was in the single digits!. This one is just unrelenting but when the pullback comes it will be sharp and fast. 10-15 point selloff in one day? Not impossible!

This morning stock futures are quite weak which to me is probably better than opening higher and closing lower but there are a lot of overhangs out there. Ten year is behaving at 5.06% Crude oil is lower and natural gas is continuing to sell off; under 7 bucks. No corporate news this morning but check the news that broke last night in the prior post on Atlas Pipeline(APL) which announced a distribution hike and K-Sea9KSP) which did buy up 2 companies and pre-announced a distribution hike. No upgrades or downgrades so far.

Tuesday, June 26, 2007

After the market close some breaking news. Atlas Pipeline Partners hikes the distribution by a penny....also Atlas Holdings distribution is announced with no change there. K-Sea is buying up 2 companies and pre-announces a distribution boost. Somebody popped 200 shares 9 bucks above the close so i don't think that's real. It should move a couple of points tomorrow.

The MLP index closed off the low...down a small fraction on the day. End of quarter nonsense plus a fed meeting is probably keeping everyone on hold. Also hot weather in NY driving everyone to the beach!
Like watching paint dry this afternoon with the MLP index trading off the weakness in broad energy stocks. We're down about 60 cents but its been trading within a 20 cent range for the last 2 hours...326.90-327.10. Overall market remains a little higher but nothing to write home about.
The MLP index is lower after running up nearly a point and a half. It is down by just over half a point and is sitting near 327. Still only 2 mlps have losses more than the index itself so its just a lot of small moves in either direction of the flat line. Nothing is driving the group today so it seems to be feeding of the slight weakness in most energy stocks. Its that boring time of year as summer settles in. Nustar Holdings (NSH) is the biggest winner at +.70 while Nustar (NS) itself is down by about the same amount.

On the watch this afternoon...looks like the broad market is rallying and that may spread out into MLPS after lunch.

Love these quiet mornings where there is not a stich of news, no upgrades or downgrades, nothing. So its the usual market forces this morning. Lower energy, flat 10 year, and stronger stock futures so i guess we open higher. So i might as well wait for the open and see where it goes. Bear in mind end of quarter and end of first half coming up on Friday so some volitility and some surprises probably on the horizon.

Monday, June 25, 2007

Looks like a late day reversal of the reversal but mlps still lower...coming off the lows of the day however.
The rally attempt is failing badly this afternoon as sellers are overwhelming the market and MLPS are following. The index is down 1.36. Most MLPS are down this afternoon. Copano (CPNO) is down 1. Lots of fractional losses in a host of issues like Global Partners (GLP), E V Partners (EVEP) Oneok LP (OKS),Eagle Rock (EROC) and Constellation Partners (CEP).

Just a few winners left with Nustar Holdings (NSH) up 40 cents,and Natural Resource (NRP) up 25 cents and way off its high.

Last hour could be messy if support breaks in the overall market. Look for MLPS to follow.
The MLP index traded down to 327.93 but its now at 329.64 and up on the day by .69! Usually it takes a while for this group to catch up when the rest of the market is rallying off a broad selloff. Half the group is up and half still down but if the rally spreads out this afternoon i would look for the ones on the losers list to trim their losses or even go positive by days end.

I'm going to take some pool time here in the hot air in NY...I will post more broadly right after lunch.

If you were hoping to wake up and start the day with news about deals,upgrades and downgrades all over the place and all kinds of other action...well guess what....its as quiet as a church mouse this morning. There is not a breath of news, not a single upgrade or downgrad, nothing (at least so far). So with that backdrop stock futures are flat but above fair value so that gives us some small support. Energy prices aredown this morning back under 68 bucks and down over 1 dollar and nat gas is under 7 bucks again. So i guess everyone is holding their breath to see if there will be followthrough to Friday's 180 point selloff.

The MLP index meanwhile continues to hold support at 320 and in fact has only reluctantly sold off late in the week as the overall market dragged the group down. Midstream assets are attractive as GE showed us last week. The chart to me says new all time highs are long as the overall market doesn't meltdown over this Bear Sterns and the subprime mess. Ten year rates benefiting from flight to quality as the yield is back down to 5.11 this morning. Stock futures meanwhile have firmed and the open looks nicely higher so MLPS are poised to follow.

The only thing going on (and this is a stretch) is that Breitburn (BBEP) has a bid this morning in the pre-market above Friday's close. Sometimes that happens when something is going on..and sometimes not. I am really grasping at straws here.

Friday, June 22, 2007

Dow down 155 and the MLP index has actually been up most of the morning but is now down but only by 30 cents. The list however has more losers on it than winners, just that the moves aren't all that impressive in either direction. Energy complex is higher except for natural gas.

Terra Nitrogen (TNH) is down 3 after trading as high as 126 this morning. The stock had an impressive run these last 2 weeks. Energy Transfer Equity (ETE) has broken out to new highs today. Copanoi (CPNO) also up near its 52week high.

Other than Terra Nitrogen, Genisis (GEL) and Alliance Resource (ARLP) are the 2 biggest losers down just under 1 point each.

Barring a complete market meltdown today or a big spike up in rates on the 10 year MLPs might continue to move higher for a couple of reasons. One is energy is higher today across the board which will probably lend support. Oil is approaching 70 bucks. The second reason again in my book is that the game changed on Tuesday when General Electric took a big stake in Regency Partners (RGNC). This gave a green light to MLPS and i think new all time highs loom on the AMZ MLP index as we sit less than 2% away.

And indeed we have a a flat open that has now turned higher for the group. No standouts in the early trade as most moves are small fractions in either direction. Morgan Keegan is giving a goose to Boardwalk Partners (BWP) starting it at a buy. No corporate news driving any particular stock so lets wade through the first half hour noise and go from there.

Thursday, June 21, 2007

After the close Morgan Keegan starts Boardwalk Partners (BWP) at a buy. Why they waited until 5:30 pm to announce this is beyond me.
A solid 3 1/2 point gain on the MLP index which was off the high of the day but a very good performance. Terra Nitrogen (TNH) ripped up 11 points to 124 after trading down to 112 this morning.Plains All American,Hiland GP, Nustar Holdings, Universal Compession,Copano,Kinder Morgan Partners ,Atlas Holdings, Hiland LP, all up 1 point or more. And a whole slew of mlps up 50 cents or more.

So far not much news after the close. New all time highs in sight for the MLP index.
A solid 3 1/2 point gain on the MLP index which was off the high of the day but a very good performance. Terra Nitrogen (TNH) ripped up 11 points to 124 after trading down to 112 this morning.Plains All American,Hiland GP, Nustar Holdings, Universal Compession,Copano,Kinder Morgan Partners ,Atlas Holdings, Hiland LP, all up 1 point or more. And a whole slew of mlps up 50 cents or more.

So far not much news after the close. New all time highs in sight for the MLP index.
Up nearly 4 points on the MLP index as of 2pm...nice rally here.
MLPS ran up sharply this morning.The index climbed over 3 points and while its pulled back a bit it is sitting over the 330 level up 2.70 on the day so far. Plains All American (PAA), Nustar (NS) Duke Midstream (DPM) and Magellan Midstream (DPM) are all up 1 or more. Lots of strong fractional gainers like both Energy Transfers (ETP)(ETE), Buckeye (BPL),Global Partners (GLP),both Hilands (HPGP,HLND)...the former is at a 52 week high. It just seems to me that midstream MLPS have solid support after the GE purchase of Regency (RGNC).

Alliance Resource (ARLP) is down 1, Fractional losers in Martin Midstream (MMLP), Williams Partners (WPZ), Inergy Holdings (NRGP) and a few others.

As long as the market holds up this afternoon we should add to these morning gains.

Yesterday's last hour selloff in the MLP group took the index to the lows of the day but the group outperforms the rest of the market yesterday so this morning we start the morning with higher crude prices but also a higher 10 year which has crept back up to 5.17%. 5.25% remains the magic pivit point imho so watch those rates carefully as the bond market continues to be the tail that is wagging this dog.

This morning Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) and Energy Transfer Equity (ETE) holders have reason to celebrate as they will be getting distribution increases Energy Transfer Partners goes to 3.225 from 3.15 and Equity goes to 1.49 from 1.42 annual. Both stocks have been among the better performers in the group.

Hard to argue with these charts which show uptrends pretty much intact here.

Energy Prices are higher this morning as they rebound from yesterday's selloff. Stock futures are a little weaker this morning as the 10 year rate is trading at 5.17% this morning. No other corporate headlines and no upgrades or downgrades so far.

Wednesday, June 20, 2007

Hiland GP (HPGP) has broken out to a new 52 week high. ????Otherwise the selling is now coming into the MLP group with the index now down a few pennies. Dow down 90 and utility index down 10 points or 2%.
One of those hard to figure afternoons here. Dow is down 60...Oil index is down 24 points...Energy is selling off...Bond rates are higher...and MLPS;you would think they would be selling off. In fact the index is up .60 here. Lots of fractional winners on the board. Regency (RGNC) and Terra Nitrogen (TNH) both up 2. Duke Midstream(DPM) up 1. Nustar Holdings (NSH),Global (GLP) Buckeye(BPL) Universal Compression (UCLP),Inergy Holdings (NRGP), Hiland Group and Hiland LP(HPGP,HLND) and others all up major fractions.

Constellation Partners (CEP) Suburban Propane(SPH) both down 70 cents. Markwest Hydrocarbon(MWP) is the biggest loser.

Someday I'll figure out upgrades...AG Edwards starts Legacy (LGCY) at a buy. The stock is unchanged. Credit Suisse's upgrade of Atlas Pipeline gave this stock nearly a 2 dollar up just up 20 cents.
General Electric (GE) i think sent a signal yesterday that MLPS are cheap. Regency (RGNC) which was up 4 yesterday is up another 3 points to 33 today. The MLP index is up half a point and closing in on the 330 level again. Magellan Holdings (MGG),Genesis (GEL),Enterprise Equity (EPE) and Universal Compression (UCLP) up major fractions. Universal is doing a private placement of is Duke Midstream (DPM) and so is Plains All American (PAA). Duke is up 25 cents...Plains is down 25 cents.

On the losing side, Constellation (CEP) and Holly Partners (HEP) are down about 60 to 70 cents apiece as the 2 biggest losers. Smaller fractional loses in a few other issues but nothing really news driven.

The MLP index closed 3 1/2 points higher yesterday mostly on strength from Kinder Morgan Partners (KMP) which was up over $1 and is a big component of the index. Still we are heading back quickly to 330 and new all time highs loom ahead...we're less than 3% away. Meanwhile Terra Nitrogen (TNH) went over 120 yesterday so when your up more than 20% in a week it was time to correct and the stock did close lower at 114. So we have lots of movement.

Credit Suisse is on the horn this morning for Atlas Pipeline Partners which it upgrades to outperform from marketperform. This might be a catylist to move the stock back over 55. Nothing else on the list so far. Also we have some news from Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP) which is buying a ton(figuratively) of coal reserves.

Oil is lower this morning but natural gas is higher.The 10 year yesterday dropped unde 5.10% which provides support and we continue to hold the 5.25% level. 10 year is at 5.08% this morning. Stocks futures are higher for the open.

Tuesday, June 19, 2007

MLP index up 1.50 as it continues to gain steam. Terra Nitrogen (TNH) broke 120 a little while ago. Winners list getting a little longer than before as buyers continue to move in.

Headed for work this afternoon so we'll see how we finish but it looks good for the close.
Regency (RGNC) is now up 4 dollars on the GE buyout. Terra Nitrogen (TNH) is nearing 120 bucks...up 20% since the breakout over 100 last week. Universal Compression (UCLP) joins the list of 1 point winners today.Oneok LP (OKS) and Nustar (NS) are up major fractions.

Global (GLP) and Magellan Midstream (MMP) are the 1 point losers today. The other losers are 40 cents or less. The MLP index is up 65 cents and at the highs of the day.
Regency Partners (RGNC) is up 3.77 at 29 on the GE buyout news. Terra Nitrogen (TNH) opened lower and now is at119up 2.30. The AMZ MLP index is up half a point. Nothing really stands out so far on the upside other than the 2 mentioned. Most of the moves are fractional in nature...under 30 cents.

Magellan Midstream (MMP) opened down over a buck and has come back to minus 80 cents. Global Partners (GLP) is down 60 cents. Most other losers are down by small fractions.
Regency is bidding 1.27 above the close...asking 35.

We have news this morning which i think comes as a bit of a surprise. General Electric is taking a large stake in Regency Partners (RGNC) as it buys up 91% of the general partner and a 37% stake in the LP. I guess GE sees some value here.

Sometimes this kind of news can light a fire under the group as investors start to look around for similar situations. Stock has been one of the underperformers among MLPS lately but today's news will turn that around.

Elsewhere this morning it is another quiet start. There has been some buzz about Linn Energy (LINE) and whether they are about to announce another big deal. Today is their annual meeting but so far nothing on the wire. Energy markets this morning are a little soft in overnight after crude ran up yesterday and sits just under 69 dollars. 10 year has calmed down and is at 5.14% so that 5.25% top appears to be holding. Nothing has appeared on the upgrade downgrade list.

In the world of Terra Nitrogen (TNH) it is clear this one is on another one of those upside momentum moves. The stock was up another 5 dollars yesterday and just continues its runaway upside breakout move from last week. Its one of those things that one can only watch with awe...unless one was brave enough to buy a month or so ago when the stock corrected down into the upper 70s. Remember for you brave bulls among you that pullbacks in these things can come anytime and they can be quite violent.

Back to the 10 year, we are at the top of the range but that top is holding which saved the overall market last week and it save the MLP group as well. As long as5.25 holds which is the high from last summer we're in good shape. But that chart is bothersome.

Monday, June 18, 2007


Quiet start this morning with no deals,no news, but we do have Wachovia upgrading Enbridge Energy Partners(EEP) and Enbridge Energy Management (EEQ) and they are both up nicely. The AMZ MLP index is higher by about half a point. The group looks split down the middle this morning between winners and lsoers. Enbridge Energy Partners (EEP) as i said is up 1 and change as the biggest winner. Duke Midstream (DPM) is also up nearly a point.

Breitburn is down again today by 70 cents, Markwest (MWE) is down 90 cents and Terra Nitrogen (TNH) is down 1.20....but that one had a big rally last week as it broke out over 100.

Postings may be slim today as i am working in town. But i will be posting when i can.

Sunday, June 17, 2007


I was doing some checking on insider action in the MLP group and came across some interesting things. Note that a Crosstex Energy LP (XTEX) director sold nearly 50,000 shares of stock last week which in itself is a little worrysome. Thats a huge chunck of shares to unload on a stock that is closer to its 52 week low than its 52 week high. But on further inspection note that at the same time this director made a huge insider purchase with those proceeds of 43,000 shares of Crosstex (XTXI) the gp of XTEX! So I guess the bet here is that XTXI will more upside potential then XTEX. Interesting move. Also some other insider moves as a director of Legacy Partners (LGCY) does an open market purchase of the stock. Duke Midstream (DPM) directors also are buying up stock near 52 week highs. and its 5 different directors buying which is bullish. Breitburn (BBEP) had an insider buy. Nustar has Mr Greely buying hand over fist for awhile now. So considering we are still seeing buying in the group after such a nice run up in the MLP index may be indications that higher highs are still ahead.

Its a bittersweet moment for me tonight. I have been working at WPIX-TV in New York for the last 10 1/2 years. My first childhood memories was being in front of the TV set in East Harlem N.Y. watching cartoons on Channel 11 along with the Honeymooners, Perry Mason, Yankee Baseball, Abbot and Costello, The Three Stooges, The Little Rascals, and so on. That I got to work there on the air and become part of that history was huge for me. No one was happier. I had no complaints. I not only loved my job but i adored the people i worked with.

But in life curve balls are thrown. Because of circumstances beyond my control I wound up on the outside looking in. My job was given to someone else with me still in it! And while i was in free fall along comes an opportunity to go across the street at WNBC-TV and back to where i started in my first job some 27 years ago when i was a young meteorologist assistant producer on the Today show for Willard Scott!

So i say goodbye tonight to some really great people and a really great life experience and on to a new adventure. I will never forget these 10 plus years. I have been very blessed and very lucky that God brought some outstanding people into my life. I shall never forget it.

Friday, June 15, 2007

MLPS have slowly been coming off their highs. The tape feels like a Friday afternoon in the summertime....everybody goes home early except for the sellers so we're seeing some erosion. Still a decent week when it looked like a disaster loomed late Tuesday we've been straight up ever since. Less than 30 minutes to go. Unless its earthshattering...have a good weekend.
Its a Friday so typically its the first hour's action and the last half hour's action and thats pretty much it. Off the highs of the day but still solidly higher going into the afternoon.
Breitburn(BBEP) is acting like they are doing a stock offering. Its down 1 and change on volume. No news but P R departments in some of these companies are lacking. Will post news when it comes.

Meanwhile its higher prices for MLPS up 1.70 at 327 at this time. One point or more plusses in United Compression (UCLP) and Terra Nitrogen (TNH) is extending its breakout up 5 and change to 108. Lots of fractional plusses in Legacy (LGCY),Martin Midstream(MMLP) Duke Midstream(DPM), Enbridge Energy Partners (EEP) and Markwest (MWE).

Losers list is small; other than Breitburn as the standout, losses are 30 cents or less in a handful of issues on small volume.
Terra Nitrogen up 3 and changeto107 in the pre market.

If its been all about bonds this week (and it has been) then we cap the week off with CPI which came in at 0.1 core which was cooler than expectations and the market likes it, bonds liked it and MLPS will like it. The 10 year is at 5.19% and stock futures are strong so it looks like we will finish the week on a solid note.

No corporate developements this morning but last night Atlas Resource Partners(ATN) announced its distribution for the quarter and it is going ex-distribution early in this cycle....June 26th is the record date which means it goes ex-distribution next Friday June 22.

In upgrades and downgrades Legacy Partners (LGCY) gets a buy nod from the boys and girls at Oppenheimer this morning.

So unless we get breaking news lets wait for what should be a solid up open for the group.

Thursday, June 14, 2007

Up a buck and a half at 325 even on the MLP index. Terra Nitrogen (TNH) has broken out on volume as it clears 100 and is trading at 103 right now up 5. Global Parnters (GLP) is up 1 and change as is Breitburn (BBEP). Lots of fractional plusses on the board including EV Partners (EVEP), Constellation (CEP) Nustar Holdings (NSH) among others.

Eagle Rock (EROC) is down 68 cents as the biggest loser. Inergy (NRGP), Martin Midstream (MMLP)and Williams Partners (WPZ) are losing small fractions.

Utility average over 500 again. The 10 year is holding at 5.20%. So it looked gloomy on Tuesday and it now looks better today.

Bond market gyrations continue to wag the dog here as the rally from the 5.36 peak to 5.20 on the yield gave us a 3 point MLP index gain so we continue to hold 320 on that index. Inflation numbers on producer prices out this morning is being watched closely so that will be the broad market driver. Energy prices this morning are higher again across the board and stock futures are higher and above fair value.

This morning in corporate news we have dead silence and nothing on the upgrade downgrade list.

Tuesday's action caused me to get very cautious on the group and of course yesterday's action proves how the market can humble you quickly. As it happens i sold out a couple of trading positions on Tuesday and when mlps began to firm up yesterday i was able to get back into the same positions at slightly lower prices before they rallied. Such is life when one trades but fortuantely this group sometimes takes its sweet time joining broad market parties which gives you time to change course.

Meanwhile Terra Nitrogen(TNH) closed yesterday at 98.51.Will today be the day this one finally breaks out over 100? Ten year right now at 5.22 and stock futures are strengthening ahead of ppi.

Wednesday, June 13, 2007

They are rallying away here as the MLP index approaches a 3 point gain here with 45 minutes to go. Terra Nitrogen(TNH) is up 5.54 at 98 and change...might it break 100 today finally? Markwest Hydrocarbon (MWP) is up 2 points. Sunoco Logistics(SXL) is up 1.60 . Crosstex (XTXI) is up 1 dollar as well.

Losing list is thinning out with a few issues like Teppco (TPP) Linn Energy (LINE) and a few others down small fractions. Oneok LP (OKS) is down 56 cents and that one is today's biggest loser.
Taking solace in the fact that the bonds are rallying back to 5.21 and that has brought the dow back up 100+points and the MLP index is up 2.50 points getting back most of yesterday. So 5.25% and 320 on the MLP index continue to provide support. I guess i was overbearish yesterday after that yield spike, but there is no question that every bond tick is being bought and sold.

Constellation Partners (CEP) Penn Virginia Resources (PVR) Natural Resource Partners (NRP) and Suburban Propane (SPH) leading the way up 1 point or more.

Duke Midstream (DPM) is down 95 cents as the biggest loser today.
The MLP index is up over a point with bond rates falling to 5.21%. Terra Nitrogen (TNH) is up 4 as it makes a run toward 100 again. Atlas Pipeline (APL),Constellation Energy Partners (CEP),US Shipping (USS) Crosstex (XTXI),Suburban Propane (SPH) and Inergy LP (NRGY) are fractional winners among others.

Losers today include Martin Midstream(MMLP) E V Partners (EVEP) Linn Energy (LINE) and Calumet LP (CLMT) all down fractions but nothing on volume.

Dow up 90, Utilites up 6. If rates behave today we will continue to rally.
Bonds are rallying sharply right now asthe yield drops to 5.24%

And that is the big question this morning. In this MLP rally we have seen the spread risk disappear in some cases and as rates continue to melt up will MLPS at least revert back to the mean with regards to spread risk...which in the past has been in the 2 to 3 % range.

Melt ups like this in the bond market don't happen to often.

Note the weekly chart on the 10 year rate is beginning to break out so to me it says we go to 5.50-5.75.

And of course the MLP index is sitting on the edge of the cliff this morning as we are back down to the lows of 2 weeks ago and the bet for me is that we are going lower.

News this morning on Spectra Energy (SE) as it has set the terms of the IPO of its MLP. There will be more MLPS coming out in the next few months. More choice but more supply. We're okay as long as demand from new investors remains strong.

No other corporate news this morning and no upgrades or downgrades. The pivot point is 5.30% on the 10 year. As bonds tick from the 5,30% level the stock futures are following. So that is what we'll be watching today. Any rate spike will bring in sellers.

Tuesday, June 12, 2007

The overall market is selling off hard as rates break above 5.25. MLPS are holding above their low of the day however something tells me this is going to play out some more so i am very cautious in here. Dow down 123 right now.

Soaring 10 year rates can't be good in here. Usuallyi'mlooking around for trading opportunities but there are times to step aside until the dust settles and this may be one of those times.

Again sorry for the late first post but it doesn't seem that i missed any upside. The MLP index is now bouncing slightly off the lows of the day at 320.06 and most MLPS are down although the losses are heavier in the bigger cap mlps than the small ones. Kinder Morgan is down nearly 1 point among the losers. Martin Midstream is down 1. So is Suburban Propane (SPH) Legacy (LGCY) and Markwest (MWP)>

Hiland LP (HLND) is fractionally higher as they have finally found their ceo so that uncertainty disappears. Universal Compression (UCLP) gets a buy nod from one of the brokerages...thanks to the poster who put it in the comments section. Copano (CPNO)got a buy nod from UBS but that stock moved yesterday on that news and its down a touch today.

10 year rates hit 5.23 but have since backed off to 5.20 which has turned the dow industrials around to a 4 point gain. We'll see if this spreads.
...At work this morning...will be posting later on. Sorry for the inconvienence!

Monday, June 11, 2007

They took Terra Nitrogen to 99.75 earlier which brings it to its last top weeks ago a few ticks under trading at 97 and change up 3 and change. We've been holding here at slightly higher levels..waiting for the last hour to se if we can firm up to the highs of the day.

No news today...very quiet. I've noticed that Hiland Partners (HLND) is holding a head and shoulders neckline by a it on the verge of a breakdown? 52 better hold. Also Crosstex LP not doing well today down 51 cents. No news on either stock.
Utility average now up over 6 points and trying to climb back over the 500 mark. MLP index now back up.70. Stable to higher for the most part.
Since the obsession is with the 10 year i think as long as it doesn't fall out of bed today the markets will be stable and MLPS can rally. The index was up 1 and change this morning..then a pullback to up .30 and now some more firming as the Dow Utilities index is up 4 points. Duke Midstream(DPM) Breitburn (BBEP) E V Partners (EVEP) Holly Partners (HEP) and Penn Virginia Holdings (PVG) all up a dollar or more. Strong fractional gains in Linn Energy (LINE),Martin Midstream(MMLP)US Shipping (USS) and Kinder Morgan Partners (KMP) which is getting the Barron's boost.

On the losing side, Sunoco Logistics(SXL) is down 1, Global Partners (GLP) ,Markwest (MWE) Terra Nitrogen (TNH) and Calumet (CLMT) down fractionally.

Commodities suppot today as those markets are higher except for Natural Gas. Ten year rate up .02 at 5.14 and holding.

We could spend the morning talking about the Sopranos (i thought it was brilliant! and in true David Chase fashion as Tony is killed imho) or we could talk about Rags To Riches being the first female in 102 years to win the Belmont. Or we could talk about the fact that nothing is going on this morning. There have been Monday morning deals in the last few weeks and corporate news is non existent. No upgrades or downgrades either so far. So like will be about the 10 year Bond and if rates are going to resume their climb or will the settle down and stocks try to re-rally. Lots to ponder!

So unless i see breaking news we will wait until the open. BTW there was a Barron's piece on MLPS and specifically about the MLPS that will be coming out in the next few months. It was in general a positive overview on the group and Kinder Morgan Partners gets a specific goose by the anal-ist quoted. Someone posted the piece here on the yahoo message board.

Saturday, June 09, 2007

Rags to Riches


Friday, June 08, 2007

Dow up 132..MLP index down only 1.20 and rallying. Near the highs of the day.
MLPS firming up in here as the index is down less than 2 and pretty much near the highs for the day after adjusting for all the opening prices.
10 year stablized near 5.11% which is well off this morning's near doom at 5.25%. So stocks have gotten back 1/2 of their loss of yesterday. MLPs opened down near 320 and they have rallied from there to 321.50 but still 2.50 from yesterday's close. But the last hour could bring in short covering.
We opened down about 3 points and have been meandering back and forth from there. Overall market is holding as it watches the 10 year bond tick by tick. 5.25% HAS HELD for now so as long as the bonds don't fall apart we may go out firm today.

Nustar Holdings (NSH) Terra Nitrogen (TNH) and Penn Virginia Holdings (PVG) up 1 or more. Hiland Holdings (HPGP), Nustar (NS), Global Partners (GLP) Copano (CPNO) Ferrellgas (FGP) and Duncan Partners (DEP) all down 1 or more.
Btw i would just like to point out that in the past when we've had big sell-offs...MLPS were the last group to go down. That was usually the sign that the overall market was about to turn. Its different this time in that this is an interest rate sensitive decline. We actually were the first group to go down 2 weeks ago as bond rates began their climb. So we are leading the way down here so this time we may be the first group to turn higher before the rest of the market follows. All imho of course. In the premarket interest rate sensitive groups like the banks and brokers are looking just a bit lower from the close yesterday. 10 year back to 5.20% Futures off the lows.
5.25% is the peak trade this morning on the 10 year with the futures bottoming at -9! We've come off the high yield and futures low together. So i stand by the idea that should 5.25% hold today we could get some sort of reflex relief rally. But if 5.25 goes...look for it to get ugly.

We have seen an amazing adjustment in interest rates as we have risen 30 basis points since Wednesday peaking this morning (so far) around 5.25%.

Its not often you see gaps and huge spikes in the bond chart like this but we have yesterday's spike and what is not shown which is the overnight spike in rates. Now 5.25 is last years high and i think market traders have priced that spike in. So if it holds and rates begin to back off from that we could see stock (and mlp) prices try and find a bottom in here. However if 5.25 does not hold we we see this spike up get out of hand i think it might get pretty ugly out there today.

Meanwhile the MLP index is now close to its low from 2 weeks ago. You have to think that this huge rate adjustment in the 10 year will continue to exert pressure on prices since the yield spread is about as low as its ever been. Its going to be an interesting day ahead to be sure. Traders should watch for any gap down opens as possible entry points should you be in the mood to catch any falling knives!

Drops like this make upgrades and downgrades useless sometimes. Nothing on the list but its early. No corporate headlines either to drive prices of individual issues.

When i started this post futures were down 9 and the 10 year was at 5.24%. Now futures are down 5.50 and the 10 year is holding 5.24%. Look for a rough start and then??????

Thursday, June 07, 2007

Dow down 175 and at the lows of the day. MLPS holding off their lows.
A bounce is underway here as we move off the lows now. MLP index down 6.33
Downright ugly! MLP index down 7.25. Not single mlp above water today. Sunoco Logistics is down 3 and Terra Nitrogen is down 5...was down more earlier. 24 MLPS are down 1 point or more. 37 others are down between 50 cents and 99 cents. What a mess.

Last hour ought to be a gem!
Dow down 100 points...Utilities down 12 or 2+%. MLPS have upticked slightly off their lows of the day. No MLPs are up...they are all down. 12 mlps are down 1 point or more...28 others are down between 50 cents and 1 dollar. A real mess out there. 5.11% on the 10 year and soaring today. Oil and gas are up but the story today is rising rates..falling equities.
Lunchtime...Dow off the lows. The dow utilities down 9 points or nearly 2%. The MLP index is down 5 points and at the lows of the day.
Okay so this one is easy. The answer to the question about MLPs holding their ground is no. The index is down 4 and change. And only 2 stocks are up and barely. Alliance Holdings (AHGP) and US Shipping (USS). Everything else is down. Linn Energy (LINE), Nustar Holdings (NSH), Suburban Propane (SPH) Inergy LP(NRGY), Williams Partners (WPZ), Terra Nitrogen (TNH) and Sunoco Logistics(SXL) all down a point or more. And we have large fractional losses in Nustar (NS) Regency (RGNC) Oneok LP (OKS), Duke Midstream (DPM) and Calumet (CLMT).

Breitburn (BBEP) is creeping back up to the flatline but who knows what that means if anything. The MLP index is at the lows of the day now down 4.42. The 10 year yield hit 5.099% before backing off from there. Dow dropped 100 points fairly quickly as rates spiked this morning.

Energy is higher today across the board but today its all about yield.

Yesterday's 1% ish loss was pretty much in line with the market's overall loss and now this morning we see the 10 year at 5.03% and rising.

Chart formation are bullish for bond rates so i think the breakout at 4.90 was significant. Now we are poised to challenge 5.25% which takes us back to exactly 1 year ago.

So what will MLPS do? I think they will pretty much follow equities here since trends for energy are still bullish. Deals in MLP land continue and i think that certainly helps prices. But if equity markets begin to sell off MLPS will move down with them at least for awhile. For now we watch and wait. 5.25 was where the last rally in rates ended a year ago. Not sure what will happen this time around.

Ferrellgas (FGP) is out with higher earnings this morning and that will of course impact the stock. No other news on the corporate front and no upgrades or downgrades.

Wednesday, June 06, 2007

Coming off the lows in the last hour. Nothing furious but a bounce nonetheless. Atlas Holdings (AHD)is up 1 now and over 40 bucks. Suburban Propane(SPH) is up a fraction on a very small list of winners. Atlas Pipeline (APL) is also up on the AG Edwards upgrade.

A few losers are coming off their lows.
MLP index down 3.80 and at the lows of the day. Dow down 134 and utilites down 8 while the 10 year yield holds near 4.97% Not the best of market conditions.
Lunchtime approaches and we are selling off. The MLP index is down 2.70. Duke Midstream (DPM) is however up 3 and change. No news that i could find so one could say that somebody knows something. Otherwise Penn Virginia (PVR) and Alliance Resource Holdings (AHGP) are up small fractions among today's few winners. Oneok (OKS) Nustar (NS) and Calumet (CLMT) lead the losers list each down over 1 point. Morgan Keegan calls on several MLPS not goosing those stocks. Kinder Morgan(KMP), Enterprise (EPD)(EPE), and both Energy Transfers (ETE,ETP) down fractionally.

Not much else happening today as the 10 year is just under 5% and the down is down 117. Look for the broader market forcest to dictate the flow this afternoon.
AG Edwards upgrades Atlas Pipeline Partners (APL) from hold to buy. It must like the Anandarko deal!

Lets begin with a question. What does an investment house do when one stock is up 50% in the last 12 months and the other is up 60%? It tells you to buy both of them today and that is what Morgan Keegan is telling clients to do. It is starting Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) and Energy Transfer Equity (ETE) at "buy" to which i say welcome to the land of MLPS! Better late than never. More on this later.

Meanwhile the MLP index looks like it went to a short term buy yesterday if one relies on chart signals. Note the MACD on the chart crossed yesterday and the relative strength has bounced off that 30 low from last week. This is all happening while the 10 year has broken out of a base on the dauly chart.

We have cleared 4.90% and it looks like we may be headed back to the 5.25% top which was put in a year ago. Now one could argue that there is some sort of seasonal thing going on here and that we could go to 5.25% without much pressure on the group. I find this a bit difficult to grasp personally. Yield compression has pushed MLPS to its highest valutations relative to the 10 year. The spread among MLPS growing their distributions the fastest is less than 1% and in some cases the spread is actually negative. In the non growers tor uneven growers the spread is 1-2%.

So what does all this mean. I think deals in the group are pushing prices. Also note this comment posted last week about a court ruling regarding MLPS and what Wachovia thinks about that. That may be another reason supporting prices. Clearly there is a growing demand for income producing shares and not enough supply. We'll see what today brings in the face of a weak stock market open on the futures and 5% looming on the 10 year.

Now back to Morgan Keegan, it is starting coverage on a whole bunch of MLPS today. All of these are at outperform. Copano (CPNO) Enterprise Holdings (EPE) Enterprise Products Partners (EPD) and Kinder Morgan (KMP). I guess it likes what it sees.

No coporate headlines so far this morning. News as it breaks this morning.

Tuesday, June 05, 2007

The MLP index rallied into the close and closed higher by 29 cents and over 333. So we are within striking distance of a new closing high. The group is shrugging off the interest rate rise for now which is really remarkable since it sold off on that last week down to 319 on the index. I think the deals in the group especially the Atlas deals are putting a bid under prices and i guess the feeling is that more deals are coming.
The utility average is down 7 points...the dow down 100...the 10 year rate is climbing close to 5%...all this and the MLP index is only down .70 as of this posting and holding 332. Terra Nitrogen (TNH) is making a run toward 100 again. Its at 97 and up 5 on the day. Atlas Amercia (ATLS) remains down 2. Markwest Hydrocarbon (MWP) is down 1.50. Breitbart Energy Partners (BBEP) is down 90 cents. Down major fractions. Alliance Holdings (AHGP). Atlas Pipeline Partners(APL) and Atlas Holdings (AHD), Natural Resource (NRP) and Alliance Resource (ARLP).

Last hour coming up.

Late first post of the day,my apologies as i had to run into nyc early this morning and just got back. MLPS opened lower on the index, rallied higher and are now lower again and near the lows of the day as interest rates are exerting some pressure. The 10 year is near 4.98% and the dow is down 100+ points. No news this morning but A G Edwards did upgrade E V Partners to buy from hold.

The Atlas crowd leads the losers list today after yesterday's big gains. ATLS is down 1 and change and APL and AHD are down 80 cents apiece. Calumet (CLMT)and Breitburn(BBEP) are both lower by 70 cents or so. Winners include Duke Midstream (DPM) and Constellation Partners (CEP) and Terra Nitrogen (TNH)which is back near 95 again.

Monday, June 04, 2007

I updated the ticker today and added Universal Compression LP (UCLP) and Terra Nitrogen (TNH). Somebody asked me to add K-Sea but it was already there. If i'm missing anything else please let me know.

Up 1.99 on the MLP index. Good day for many issues especially the Atlas Companies!
Mid afternoon and while the AMZ MLP index is off its high it is still up 1.35. E V Partners is up 2 dollars, Terra Nitrogen (TNH) is up 5 and change. All things Atlas are up sharply. ATLS is up 5. AHD is up 7 and APL is up 3.50! Duke Midstream(DPM) is up 1 and change. Alliance Resource Holdings(AHG) and Buckeye Holdings(BGH) both up 1 and change as well so some n ice solid gains in some issues.

Not much change on the losers list. Buckeye Partners (BPL) is down 37 cents. They had the terrorist pipeline plot on their pipes but i'm not sure this is actually driving prices. Nustar Holdings is down fractionally as is Linn Energy (LINE)
Mid morning and the mlp index is up a point and a half. Duke Midstream (DPM) and Hiland GP (HPGP) join the list of one point gainers and EV Partners (EVEP) is up just under 1 dollar. And the list of fractional gainers is long.

Not much change in the losers list as we head toward lunchtime.
If it has Atlas in its name its up big today. Atlas America (ATLS) is up 6. Atlas Holdings (AHD) is up 7 and Atlas Pipeline Partners (APL) is up 3, all on the Anandarko deal. The AMZ MLP index is up 1 point and back over 332....just one percent below its all time high. Other winners are Hiland LP (HLND), Buckeye Holdings (BGH), Atlas Resource (ATN), Magellan Holdings (MGG), Global Partners (GPL) and Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) all up strong fractions.

Copano (CPNO) is down 1. Calumet Specialty Products (CLMT), Linn Energy (LINE) and Constellation Partners (CEP) all down fractions but with no news driving any issue.

Now we know that somebody knew something about Atlas Pipeline Partners (APL) as they are making a big asset purchase from Anandarko. More importantly they are pre-announcing distributions for next year as they plan to go to 3.80 to 4 dollars per unit from the current $3.44 annual. Holders of Atlas Holdings (AHD) will see their distributions go up 70% in 2008. Atlas America (ATLS) will be a big winner gain on this news. 2 weeks ago the stock jumped 7 points on the Atlas Resouce (ATN) big purchase. As per Atlas Pipeline(APL) it is one of the highest yielding MLPS at just under 7% perhaps becuase it has a history of uneven distribution growth and failed mergers. But this deal changes all that. A 6% yield takes this stock to 65 bucks. Atlas Amercia (ATLS) is up 3 and change in the premarket.Atlas Holdings (AHD) is bidding up 2 in the pre-market. No indication on Atlas Pipeline (APL). Friedman Billings is raising its price target to 54 bucks on APL from 52. Too low imho.

Not often we've had to focus on world events impacting an MLP but we have that this morning. Over the weekend a terror plot to blow up the pipelines to JFK Airport in New Yokr City was discovered. Here are the links to a series of stories on the subject but the pipes that run the oil from New Jersey to JFK belong to Buckeye Partners (BPL). I'm not sure what kind of impact this is going to have on the share price but my bet would be that if it sells off on the news it would provide buyers with a buying opportunity.

Not much else happening this morning news wise and no other upgrades or downgrades. The MLP index is rallying back to the old highs in the face of a ten year rate running back to nearly 5%.

So if it seems to have been discounted but i can't help but wonder when rising rates begin to squeeze MLPS. I have to think that a break through 5% will raise eyebrows and if we break above 5.25% it could let the air out of the balloon in a more serious fashion. But so far not much impact in rising rates other than forcing MLPS into a sideways pattern. I would still bet on an upside breakout.

Friday, June 01, 2007

Some days they follow the utility average which is down 3 points...some days they follow energy with the xoi up 16 points. Someday someone will explain this to me. The MLP index is up 1.70 and over 331 now. This with the 10 year rate breaking out to 4.95% which is a multimonth high and a high for the year so far. But why worry. Be happy here as we finish the week on an up note...with 45 minutes left to go.

Not sure whats going on with Atlas Pipeline Partners which is off the high of the day but traded as high as 52.90.

Atlas Pipeline Partners is surging up 2.27 on 100,000 shares of volume. No news to report other than the chart breakout of a multi-year top with respect to pure price. The chart prices are adjusted for distributions.
Well i guess for now the answer to my headline question is no the rally is not going to stall out. We're up 1.50 on the MLP index and back over 330 while the 10 year has broken out above 4.90 and is sitting at 4.94. I'm not going to fight the tape so until proven otherwise we seem to heading back toward all time highs at 336.

Atlas Pipeline Partners (APL) is the big winner today as it is breaking out to new all time highs up 1.40 on volume. Holly Partners (HEP) Buckeye Holdings (BGH) are up over a buck. Fractional winners include Oneok LP (OKS) Crosstex LP (XTEX), Duke Midstream (DPM), K-Sea (KSP) and Teppco (TPP).

On the losers list Calumet LP (CLMT) Penn Virginia Holdings (PVG) are down fractionally but there are no outstanding losers out there.

The headline is the big question today because in my view a decisive move above 4.90% will put pressure on mlp prices. The rally off the 319 low on the MLP index has been impressive and the chart look would imply at least a challenge to the 336 high. 8:30 AM and the employment numbers loom large.

No corporate news that i could find this morning and no upgrades or downgrades. I am working this morning but i will update around mid morning.