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Thursday, April 29, 2010


We are continuing to see some distortions from day to day given the ex distributions that impact the value of the MLP index. Meanwhile we have earnings news this morning from Holly Partners (HEP) which was a record. K-Sea (KSP) reports earnings which missed estimates by 45 cents but these misses dont always have meaning. Oneok (OKS) reported after the close last night with earnings and they affirmed (again) 2010 guidance. And while Kinder Morgan (KMP) gets the Cramer goose on Mad Money, last night Copano (CPNO) got a mention and the stock is up sharply this morning in the pre-market. And finally back to earnings Linn Energy (LINE) puts up earnings numbers.

Exxon Mobil's (XOM) earnings were a tad short this morning and this could be a driver of energy stocks this morning while Chevron(CVX) and Conoco Philips (COP) are higher so there could be a balance there. Stock futures are higher this morning ahead of the open with the dow showing a 50 point gain and the S&P up 9. Crude is higher and nat gas is a little higher ahead of the open. Markets have come off well from the Fed in action and all the Greece news so the line of least resistence remains higher.

Wednesday, April 28, 2010

Sunoco Logisitics (SXL) dropped nearly 4 on earnings and the conference call so there must have been a little fast money in there. The stock is down 2.60 right now. TC Pipelines (TCLP) is also down over 1 on earnings. In both cases the numbers and outlook look fine. Kinder Morgan(KMP) is ex distribution by over a buck so that probably makes up much of the mlp index nearly 3 point fall as it sits around 310. The market has been up, then down on more downgrades by S&P of nations like Spain and so on..and now back up again with the dow up 50. The fed looms at 2:15pm

Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP) and Alliance Resource Holdings (AHGP) continue to roll higher with 60 cent gains and are the biggest winners along with EV Partners (EVEP) and Holly Partners (HEP).
TC Pipelines (TCLP) reports earnings and a distribution. The stock may have priced all this in as there is some shares for sale below yesterday's close. But no trades on the books yet.

5 points down on the mlp index yesterday with the dow off 200 points and notice we didnt even come close to the trendline at 307. And futures are pointing to a bounce back of 50 or 60 dow points at the open. We were due for a selloff in the overall market anyway and perhaps we got it all in one day. Greece news will be driving overall markets so volitility may be back here. Still the bulls have not lost control.

Lots going on this morning with earnings and distributions. Sunoco Logistics (SXL) announces a blowout quarter and a distribution hike. Conference call set to go this morning. Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) and Energy Transfer Equity (ETE) announce their payouts which is unchanged from last quarter. Also unchanged from last quarter is the payout from Martin Midstream Partners. Eagle Rock Energy Partners (EROC) announces a 2 1/2 cent payout to its unit holders. And Breitburn (BBEP) has their payout on the table as they resume a 38 1/2 cent payout to unit holders that has been on hold for over a year. The company announced that this would happen 2 months ago so its now official.

We're waiting for earnings news this morning from Oneok (OKS) and TC Pipelines (TCLP) which should be out anytime and Enbridge Energy Partners (EEP) is due out after the close. Headlines as they cross this morning. JPM Morgan is upgrading Capital Products Partners (CPLP) to overweight from neutral.

Other mlp drivers this morning we have crude up after pulling back from 86 bucks. Nat gas is taking a little gas this morning as well. And speaking of gas we have a fed meeting and an announcement at 2:15pm. 10 year rates are back down to the bottom of the recent tight trading range between 3.65 and 4. Will the fed change the language and start the long predicted rate climb up or as bad as US debt is...its still far better than everyone elses? Stay tuned.

Tuesday, April 27, 2010

Shitty deals aside markets are soft due to S&P downgrades of Greece and Portagul (shocked) and just some much need profit taking. The dow is off the low down 126 and MLPS are down over 4 as everyone is running to the 10 year; the yield there down to 3.69 from 3.80. So its a flight to quality and out of risk.

Alliance Resource (ARLP) and Exterran Partners (EXLP) are up a little otherwise everything else is down fractions to 1 point. Nustar (NS) is the biggest loser down 1.37 and sitting at 63 ish. Selling for the most part appears orderly and least so far.

Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP) hit the ball out of the park yesterday with earnings and guidance. RBC is following that with a big price target upgrade up to 58 bucks from 48. The stock itself was up nearly 5 dollars and at new all time highs before pulling back and closing up 2. Alliance Resource Holdings (AHGP) followed along and we should see another move up today after any profit taking..if we get any of that at all.

In earnings news this morning Duncan Energy Partners (DEP) reports solid numbers. And when Duncan speaks..Enterprise Products Partners (EPD) is right there too reporting solid numbers and record cash flow. No surprise to those of us who are hear every day. The granddaddy of MLPS never disappoints.

Markets are soft ahead of the Goldman skewering and ahead of the fed..and the Greece situation which is getting worse. 10 year rates are falling thanks to a flight to quality. A pullback would be in order anyway considering we've been up 8 weeks in a row. MLPS will probably do their usual pull back and rally as long as rates are behaving and market selloffs remain brief and shallow. Crude is down this morning and so is nat gas.

Ladenburg Thalman starts TC Pipelines (TCLP) at a buy with a 45 dollar price target.

Monday, April 26, 2010

Tape overall seems to be stalling in here around mid day. Nothing tragic mind you but energy is weakening a little bit. It could be just intra day noise but there has to be a pullback at some point. The mlp index is up 1.70 and just off the high at 319. Alliance Resource Partners and Alliance Holdings continue to lead the way up. ARLP is up 2 and off its highs of earlier when it was up well over 4. Kinder Morgan Parntes (KMP) is up 65 cents which is padding the index gain.

Lets keep an eye on the tape this afternoon for signs of profit taking.
Alliance Resource (ARLP) and Alliance Resource Holdings (AHGP) are 2 huge winners this morning with the LP up over 3 and the GP up over 1 on terrific earnings. Holly Partners (HEP) is up 1 as the mlp index is up 1.66 at 318 and some change. Just a handful of small fractional losers for the time being. Crosstex (XTEX) has broken out above its previous high at 12...up near 12.40 right now. This could be signalling a move into the mid teens.

Monday morning boys and girls and we have a few things going on that require our attention. First off we have an IPO. Plains All American (PAA) is launching an ipo of its storage called PAA Natural Gas Storage and will trade under the symbol PNG). This is the first ipo since way way back in 2007 in the MLP space when we were getting ipos left and right. It is a reflection of a return to normalcy in prices and companies are looking to take advantage of the new popularity of MLPS cash flow and distributions.

On the earnings front Boardwalk Partners (BWP) put up earnings this morning that beat by 7 cents and beat also on revenues. The stock is bid higher in the premarket. Another earnings report this morning that is getting attention is Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP) which is reporting record earnings, increasing the payout, and raising 2010 guidance. This one is bid up 50 cents from Friday's close but the ask is around 55 so my guess is at least a 1 point up open.

Inergy (NRGY) does what it does every quarter and has done for every quarter 34 consecutive times (8 1/2 years) and that is boost the payout. Inergy Holdings (NRGP) is lifting its payout by 3.5 cents and is nearing par for a quarterly payout (97.5). The stock has been among the best performing mlp more than tripling since the 2008 dec low.

Taking a look at the mlp index we continue this fabulous and very predictable stair step climb and we are approaching the 320 level. More importantly we are just 7% or so away from making new all time highs. The dow chart below is in an interesting place in that we have gone quite a long time without touching and of the support trendlines.

This begs the question. Sooner or later we're going to get a pullback and after 8 up weeks in a row you have to ask your self whether that will be coming very soon. Dont know what the catylist is going to be. Fed meeting tomorrow. Maybe they signal that they may start to tighten? Or maybe it will be some sort of outside event that is not on the radar yet. But we need to keep this in the back of our minds that something is going to come along soon to pull prices down.

Markets are getting ready to open. Its Derby week as we run for the roses on Saturday at Churchill downs. The pre race favorite Eskendreya is out and the filly Devil May Care may be in. My pick is going to be ICEBOX.

Friday, April 23, 2010

Up about a point at 316 on the mlp index. Most MLPS are higher like Nustar (NS) Inergy Holdings (NRGP) and Transmontaigne (TLP) all up nice fractions. Not too many losers. Alliance Resource Holdings (AHGP) has a 50 cent loss and off the low. Just trading noise. No news here.

Energy is up and so is the dow which is up 9 points but well off the highs. Looks like s.o.s. trading and my guess is we are going out firm this afternoon.

A three point down intraday move turns once again into an up close. Suck is a bull market and i think the odds of going to 340 and all time highs on the MLP index are increasing. Frankly when you adjust for distributions; if you were in the right mlps and avoided the sinkholes, you are already there. And congratulations if you can say "what bear market?" I have one account i trade that is back to within 5% of its all time high value and 2 others that are about 85-90% back.

Some news items this morning. Duncan Partners (DEP) continues to re arrange the chairs after the death of its founder Dan Duncan. And the parade of distribution increases continues with Spectra Energy Partners (SEP) upping the payout, William's Partners (WPZ) hikes its distribution, Boardwalk (BWP) raises by 1/2 a cent but no increase from Markwest(MWE) which leaves their's at 64 cents.

We like to keep our eyes on long rates and TBT which is powershares double long yield on the 20 year continues to trade in this remarkable and relatively predicitable trading range which translates to 3.70 ish at the bottom to 4 at the top. And once again we came down to 3.70 yield and it looks like we could be en route to another run to 4%. One of these days 4% will go but for now its been a great trade to buy TBT in here and sell the nearby 50 calls when the stock gets back up above 49..and then buying the calls back when the stock falls back to 47. Whats even better is that premiums rise in the options as the stock price rises which is great because you get to sell when premiums are large and that gets squeezed out on the decline. Not a bad way to generate some income. As far as mlps go..that march to 340 can continue i think as long as long rates continue to behave.

Thursday, April 22, 2010

Rallying back toward the flat line with the mlp index down now just half a point and at 314 and change. Breitburn (BBEP) and Nustar (NS) joining Inergy Holdings (NRGP) and Exterran (EXLP) with fractional gains of 30 cents or more. Most mlps showing small moves and only a few are showing losses greater than 40 cents.

First off sorry for no posts until now. I've been working almost non stop since Monday afternoon. Distribution hikes are announced for Kinder Morgan Partners (KMP) and Magellan Midstream Partners (MMP). For the most part its all baked into the cake. Kinder is down slightly and Magellan is down about 50 cents. Other than that there isnt too much happening. Companies are announcing their earnings dates so we have that to look foward to. The market has been under a little pressure since the open. MLPS were down nearly 3 before rallying back to a loss of 1 as of this post. The dow is down around 80 points. Just a handful of winners like Inergy Holdings (NRGP) and Exterran Partners (EXLP) which are both up about 40 cents or so. Watch Inergy when it announces its payout as it boosted last quarter by 7 percent and that has propelled the stock to 76 before the recent pullback. There may be more firepower left if they come through with another big hike.

Not much else happening. Nat gas is up on inventory numbers and crude is down a bit following stocks.

Tuesday, April 20, 2010

315 now on the mlp index and up 3 points on the day. Lots of buying coming in with Kinder Morgan (KMP) the heavyweight up almost 1 as of this post. Holly Partners (HEP) is up 1.24 and Buckeye Partners (BPL) is up nearly 1.

The rally continues.
Nice up open with the mlp index up over 2 points and suddenly we are back up against 314. Most mlps up with fractional gains. Sunoco Logistics (SXL) is up 60 cents and at an all time high. TC Pipelines (TCLP) and El Paso Pipeline (EPB) are both up slightly on their distribution news.

Goldman earnings this morning lead the parade and since the SEC indictment fell on party lines there is a feel here for the politcal motivation. Nonetheless its a bull market and when news hits its ultimately a positive. Futures are 5 points higher this morning ahead of the open. As far as mlps go there isnt much to trade on this morning. We have distribution announcements from TC Pipelines (TCLP) which is unchanged from q4. El Paso Pipeline (EPB) boosts its distribution by 2 cents from q4. Thats it on the news front this morning and there is nothing on the upgrade downgrade list.

The mlp index closed up nearly 2 points yesterday so it looks like we're heading back up to 315. The march to 340 continues as many mlps are not just at 52 week highs but some are inching toward all time highs. Some are already there like Kinder Morgan (KMP) and Inergy Holdings (NRGP). But there remain some that are still 50% or more below their all time highs like Atlas Pipeline (APL) Crosstex (XTEX) and Breitburn (BBEP) among others. So if you picked right you can say...what bear market?

Dollar up a little..bonds up a little yields down...crude and nat gas are both up.

Monday, April 19, 2010


Gee what a shock it was to me that the SEC now decides to go after Goldman in what at best looks like a pretty tenious case. If this is their strongest case and they decided to do this first...then frankly the selling because of this should end around 10am this morning. Memeorandum has a list of links for you with stories from the NY Times along with lots of blogs going every which way on this. In the end its all Obama administration bullshit as they continue their march to suck every last dime out of every legal citizen in this country. But thats me!

Okay now to MLPS which held up well on Friday overall even though the index closed down over 2 points. We continue these pushes and pulls with the moving average support lines continuing to provide investors with excellent entry points.

Still no sign of any kind of intermediate term top. And we are now entering the time frame for earnings and distribution announcements which will soon be coming fast and furious. MLPS have been doing the buy the rumour sell the news action when it comes for this except for Inergy (NRGP,NRGY) where the payout moves have brought about further price gains. Nothing on the corporate news line this morning and no upgrades or downgrades so far. Crude is down over 2 bucks. Nat gas was down before the open but it has now turned a little higher.

Seeking Alpha this morning has this on MLPS that have upped their payouts and points out a few. Im a little late with this Wall Street Journal piece on MLPS. And Investor Place has this on mlps that yield over 6%.

Thursday, April 15, 2010


Looks like we're not leading the way like we used to but then again we aren't doing much other than perhaps resting while other things take the front line. MLPS closed up fractionally yesterday on a dow plus 100 points day. This morning its pretty much sideways with everything in a range from minus 20 to plus 20 cents. No news to speak of and no upgrades or downgrades. The uptrend continues as the dow is above 11,000. No signs of any short term pullback.

Posts are short today as i'm running around but i will be back later with an update.

Wednesday, April 14, 2010


Not sure if it was related but after an early higher open the mlp index has pulled back and is now down a fraction. MLPS came back some later in the afternoon yesterday but with Kinder Morgan (KMP) and Enterprise (EPD) down the flat line was just not going to happen. The two heavyweights are down pennies today so they arent having the big influence. EV Partners (EVEP) is the big winner today such as it is up 50 cents while we have a few losers in the 30 to 40 cent range. No news drivers to speak of this morning.

Inventory numbes for crude are down so crude is up nearly a buck after 4 straight down days. Nat gas is up today adding to yesterday's gains. The dollar is rallying and the dow is up almost 50 points as of this time.

No change in the fed language by Big Ben in his testimony to the House of Gasbags!

Tuesday, April 13, 2010

Down 4 .50 on the index as Kinder Morgan (KMP) and Enterprise (EPD) each down 1 or more. But just about every mlp in the group is down. Plains All American (PAA) is down on its distribtion hike so my guess is a lot of this may have already been priced in.

Market down overall but not by much.
Down nearly 3 on the mlp index which is no surprise when your 2 big heavyweights (Kinder Morgan Partners and Enterprise) are both down on news. Magellan (MMP) and Buckeye (BPL) are both down major fractions adding to the pressure. Looking to see if its another one of those days where we open at our lows and then go up from there. Overall market is a little soft at the open.
Plains All American (PAA) is the first out of the gate with a 3.3% increase in the distribution!

We have a few corporate items that will be impacting the MLP index today. Kinder Morgan(KMP) went shopping and came home with a 50% stake in Petrohawk's (HK) nat gas system in Haynesville shale. Looks like the deal is immeditately accretive to earnings and shows just how important Haynesville has become. Pre market action has Kinder Morgan flat while Petrohawk is up a buck. There will however be downside pressure on the index today as Enterprise Products Partners (EPD) which is the largest component of the mlp index doing a public offering of over 11 million shares. The stock is down 1 in the pre market. Those are the primary drivers in the group today. And btw that is one nice looking chart of Kinder Morgan Partners which doesn't include 5 distribution payouts in that stretch.

Markets were softer overnight on Aloca (AA) earnigns last night but futures are moving back to the flat line as we continue to play around the 11,000 level on the dow. No change in the outlook. The path of least resistence remains higher. The dollar is a little weaker this morning and energy is flat to a little lower. Nothing of consequence on the upgrade downgrade least so far.

The open looms!!!!

Monday, April 12, 2010

One thing that comes to mind is the general reality that taxes are going up. This could be a longer term driver for MLPS as they continue to attract money looking for sheltering income. The index is up to 315.00 and up 1.75 as we head into lunchtime. The dow is over 110000 as i post. Most mlps are higher and the majors are posting nice fractional gains.

The almost deliberate, two steps foward 1 step back march continues and the MLP index begins the day at 313.00. The dow pierecd 11,000 last Friday and then pulled back just under it at the close. That drama is pretty much a done deal. 340 on the MLP index which is the old print high from 2007 is a bit more elusive but if the dow has another 1000 points in it, its not impossible that we could get there.

The weekly chart continues to be supportive so we'll just continue to enjoy the ride as long as it lasts. This week begins 1st quarter earnings and of course tax day looms Thursday (all done here and already got my refund). so it will be a busy week. Lots of chatter about the low volume rally but in the end its about price. Every bull marktet whether cyclical or secular has its issues people point to as a reason not to buy. In the end its about price. Low volume or not prices continue to rise. I still think the key will be the break out of the 10 year rate above 4-2.25% on a permanant basis. We got turned back again at 4.00 so for now the breakout reamins elusive. The longer the economy takes to recover the higher stock prices can go.

Our cycle of distribution increase announcements begins shortly and that will be a driver for mlps. With the market in rally mode i'm going to bet we'll see prices rise into the annoucements and then pull back after the news. This morning is quiet in mlp land with nothing on the news front and no upgrades or downgrades. Stock futures are higher by a touch this morning. Crude is down a little this morning and the dollar is higher this morning against most currencies.

I was in holiday mode last week so blogging was a little inconsistent. I should be back to normal this week.

Thursday, April 08, 2010

Down 2points on the mlp index this morning and now up 1 and just about at a new trading high. 11000 on the dow is the next nut to crack. All mlps were down this morning but now most are up with fractional gains on the board. Inergy Holdings (NRGP) is the biggest loser down 1 but it can make that up in a hurry.

My guess is probably not yet but a pullback is in order and maybe thats what we got yesterday. And maybe thats all it is. You could sense a bit of a shift when bonds began rallying around 11am yesterday before the auction results. Then some hawkish talk from the fed president of Kansas City and the dow sells off by over 100 and then bounces back. Tape action suggests the bull is fine and it could just be one of those 1 day intraday moves. MLPS barely lost a point. Still at some point we are going to see some sort of downmove on a larger order. But we'll let the tape tell the story.

Not much happening this morning in the land of news so far and no upgrades or downgrades. Market a little softer ahead of the open but we have jobless claims due out shortly. Rates have once again backed off 4% on the 10 year so at least for now the top of the trading range of 3.50 to 4 remains intact. Nat gas numbers at 10:30am will be a market mover. Crude is a little lower this morning and Europe is down on Greece woes. The open approacheth!

Wednesday, April 07, 2010

Not much movement in either direction today with the mlp index down just .35 as of this post. They are making a big deal about the 10 year auction and bonds are rallying ahead of the results announcement at 1pm so somebody may know something. Or are we going to see a whiplash reversal?

No big moves of note. Nustar is down on the Steifel Nicholas upping the price target to 67 from 62. Breitburn Energy Partners (BBEP) saw a burst of buying taking to almost 16 in a hurry. Will keep an eye on this one during the afternoon.

Softish open is what it looks like this morning with the futures a little lower and the Dow sitting just under 11,000. Nothing tragic mind you and much can change between now and 9:30am. MLPS stuck their head above 312 yesterday before edging back near the close. And speaking of indexes Alerian is launching another index for large cap mlps which joins last week's announcement of a midstream index (AMZI). Once i can figure out how to access them i will scorecard them with the standard AMZ index to get a better feel for whats going on. Should you want to have access from their website you need to register but all the historical data is there. Here is an interesting bit of info. 1000 bucks invested in the new AMZI index back in 2000 would be worth over 7 grand today; the mlp index over 5 grand! And that is with 2 bear markets in the stretch. The S&P 500? Well at least you would still have your 1000 bucks!

Long rates pulled back from 4% yesterday on the fed minutes but the uptrend is there and we're still waiting for that solid breakout push which probably takes us to 4.25%. Right it appears the market is okay with this idea assuming thats the way we go. After all a year ago we went to almost 4.20 only to see rates pull back to 3.50; keeping us in this 10 year trading range.

Don't see too much happening this morning on the news front. Buckeye Partners (BPL) announced an open season involving Marcellus. Credit Suisse is starting coverage on Duncan Partners (DEP) at neutral and Enterprise Products Partners (EPD) at outperform. So the open awaits us in 90 minutes.

Tuesday, April 06, 2010


That was yesterday's move and it has put mlps in a new breakout mode above 311 so i think it seems more and more likely that we are going to at least challenge the all time high at 340. Higher rates are met with a shrug so as long as the market reacts the way it does to these things...the bulls continue to hold control.

The 10 year is back to last May's high around or just over 4% so we will watch for followthrough higher but the charts certainly support a breakout to at least a new trading range. The market's view on this is that everything is getting back to normal. The mlp index is not spooked by this as it makes a new high in its long uptrend going back to December 2008. So let us continue to roll along. My portfolios are now just about all the way back to the pre market meltdown.

This morning we have a little profit taking going on as the index is down a fraction and so far moves are small in either direction. Goldman starts Williams at a buy but the stock is down a touch this morning. Not much else happening in either direction. Markets are a little lower as we continue to knock on the door of 11,000.

Took an extra day off to recover from Easter which is a very busy time around here. Hope everyone's Easter was wonderful.

Thursday, April 01, 2010

Breaking out to new highs on the open with the index up over 2 points and above 306. Except for Natural Resource (NRP) and Markwest (MWE) which are absorbing stock offerings...most everything else is higher in early trade.

Hard to complain about a 6% quarterly gain on the MLP index though the torrid out performance to the overall market is clearly behind us. Also looking at the chart; it still looks good but i have an eye on a few things. The rising 10 year is cause for concern but notice that the pull back in yields the last 2 days has led to an upturn in prices from the 295 level. Also there is the impact of energy stocks in general and on any given day that can add or subtract from mlps. I suppose that as long as the 10year yields don't spkie up suddenly, mlps will absorb it and move on their merry way. But it continues to remain on our radar.

New quarter brings with it a few news items this morning. Holly Energy Partners (HEP) is getting some storage from Holly (HOC). Enterprise Producst Partners (EPD) is picking up some gas gathering systems from M2 Midstream. Speaking of midstream Alerian who manages the mlp index is starting another index (IAMZ) which will measure the daily movements of midstream partners. Also of note today is Crosstex Energy (XTEX,XTXI) having an anal-ist day. Might be nice if they say something about the distribution and if its coming back anytime soon. Natural Resource Partners (NRP) joins a long list of mlps doing a public offering of stock. The stock is down a buck in the premarket, Markwest (MWE) did one yesterday and priced it at 30.43.

Markets pointing to a nicely higher open with stock futures higher. Crude futures breaking out to 84 bucks. Nat gas not doing much and waiting for inventory numbers at 10:30am.

Sorry for no posts yesterday but with Easter approaching its getting very busy for me. Good Friday tomorrow so markets are closed but bonds will trade on a shortened day with the employment numbers due out.