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Thursday, April 30, 2009

BREAKOUT OR FAKEOUT ON THE DOW;
MLPS KEEP ON GOING!



The dow is at a short term resistence area as the 8250 area has turned the market back in the last few weeks. The selloffs however from there have been extremely shallow and this morning with stock futures pointing to a sharply higher open that resistence will be seriously challenged. Chartist will be screaming "inverse head and shoulders bottom" and 9000 may be the next challenge which takes us back to the beginning of the year.



Those of us who reside in MLP land however have emerged from this base or whatever you want to call it and we have already broken out so our next challenge is the November 1st 2008 high which is around 230! Since we started the year at 176 and are now at 213 for a 21% gain since January 1st and if you add in now 2 distributions you have a total return of about 26%! Glory!

Earnings news will be driving a few mlps this morning like Sunoco Logistics which posted last night and its record earnings for them. This morning its Williams Partners (WPZ) which posts earnings but the press release is not available yet. Last night we had some negative news from Eagle Rock (EROC) which slashes its distribution to 0.025 cents from 41 cents in order to improve liquidity. We have some pre market trades down 1.33 to 5 bucks. Okay we now have the press release from Williams along with 2009 guidance. Oneok LP (OKS) posted numbers and guidance last night and look for Nustar(NS) to post sometime this morning.

Alliance Resource (ARLP) which has been among the better performers has been cut by Citigroup to hold from buy. These downgrades right now don't matter too much if at all. As always they are playing behind the eight ball. Crude Oil is up this morning as it moves with equity and sooner or later that short term top around 55 bucks will be challenged; hopefully sooner. Energy stocks may lead today depending on what Exxon says when their earnings come out shortly.

Keep an eye on twitter on the sidebar as i will be posting short messages their when i can't make a full blog post. Used it from Belmont yesterday! And you can of course follow me on twitter if you like. Click on the link on the sidebar. Got my daughters confirmation this morning so i will post when i can.

I should have dones this long ago but i started adding tags to make for quick references should you need to go back and look something up.

Wednesday, April 29, 2009

After re-reading the press release the terms of the exchange are 1.04 to 1 plus a dollar. So based on yesterday's close it comes to 26.75 so its pretty much at the market price..not much of a premium but above 2 months ago. But mlps are all up from their early March lows. Teppco is thinking about it.

GDP was a horror down 6.1 but its already in the wash.
Its only a couple of trades but Teppco is up 90 cents to 27 and is bid 26.40 ask 27.01 in the pre market. No trades on enterprise but its bid and ask is no worse than even from yesterday's close. Stock futures picking up steam heading into what will be weak GDP numbers.
BREAKING NEWS ENTERPRISE PRODUCTS PARTNERS (EPD) HAS ENTERED DISCUSSIONS TO BUY TEPPCO (TPP).

Press release here. Based on the prices of where Teppco is trading this is a take under using their March 6th math and if you use yesterday's closing prices its still a take under! Doesn't exactly get the body shaking in excitement as Dan Duncan buys...well...Dan Duncan!
FUTURES STRONGER

MLP RALLY CONTINUES!

THE KENTUCKY DERBY PICKS!


Its been a very interesting couple of weeks as mlps continue to forge their way higher. Since we cracked that 206 level on the chart we have rather quickly moved to 211.

What has been particularly encouraging this week as that we've started the last 2 mornings with futures sharply lower and the markets were flat at the close on both days and even up intraday. MLPS have rallied through this and they have rallied as crude and other energy stocks haven't been doing very much. We seem to have emerged in here as a leadership group and i would look for that trend to continue. Markets to me look like they want to continue to rally.

DCP Midstream (DPM)announces an unchanged distribution which should be good enough for some upside and we also have a distribution announcement from Energy Transfer Partners (ETP). Earnings this morning are out for Holly Energy Partners (ETP) which have rallied sharply since last week ahead of the numbers. They look solid according to the press release. We'll see if its a case of buy the rumor sell the news here or not. And earnings are out after the close for Sunoco Logistics (SXL).

Stock futures are higher ahead of GDP numbers this morning at 8:30am eastern time and the fed announcement later today. Swine flu news continues but its market impact is diminishing as each day passes. Crude is up as inventory numbers weigh here later this morning.

Forecasters can't resist forecasting whether its weather, stocks, or horse racing! This forecaster can't resist all three and and all at the same time. And for me its also about the sport as i love horse racing and have had a couple of my own that have crossed the finish line. Those pictures hang on my wall proudly. This weekend we have horse racings premiere race as the best 3 year olds in the country head for the post at Churchill Downs. Here are my picks for that race. I have been totally impressed with "I Want Revenge" as he has won big like he did in the Gotham in early March and he won when he was in deep trouble in the Wood Memorial






All that being said he will be the favorite Saturday as Quality Road has scratched. You might be able to get 3-1 or 7-2 on him. I have decided to take a shot on Dunkirk. He is a lightly raced 3 year old and has been kept pretty much under wraps by his trainer Todd Pletcher. And he has not raced sinced the Florida Derby where he finished second. But he was impressive coming in second there and i think if he steps it up a notch he could be right there when they turn for home. And he will be a better price although i'm sure he will attract money. 8-1 maybe?






There are other horses in the mix that could make some noise. Fresian Fire will be pushing the pace or laying just off the pace. Summer Bird is another lightly raced colt that could benefit from a fast pace and he will be coming from way out of it. He may not have enough to win it all but he could be there making a run for place or show and should be playable for exotic bets. Among the best horses that won't be there will be the 3 year old filly Rachel Alexandra who will be running Friday in the Kentucky Oaks. She has put up speed figures as good or better than most of the perspective Derby field. She looks like a lock in that race.

Tuesday, April 28, 2009

Up 2 points on the mlp index and heading toward 212. Energy stocks are beginning to get a head of steam behind them.
I guess a one tenth of one cent increase was good enough to bring buyers to EV Partners (EVEP) which is up 70 cents and is back to 18. Many mlps are fractionally higher including Markwest (MWE) which is now comfortably above 15 bucks. Holly Partners (HEP) is pushing 30 dollars after being down near 24 just a week ago.

Alliance Resource (ARLP) is down on a downgrade. Hiland Partners (HLND) is down almost a point and a large percentage loser on the elimination of the payout. Boardwalk (BWP) is down 80 cents on a downgrade and hovering around 20.

The mlp index has been down about 1 point or less all morning and has just moved to unchanged.
TALK ABOUT ANAL RETENTION!
A ONE TENTH OF ONE CENT PAYOUT HIKE!


If you are a holder of E V Partners i have to put this question. Where are you planning to spend the one tenth of one cent extra you will get on your distirbution (10 cents for every 100 shares)? You have to love a company that is so anal retentive that they can hike by a tenth of a cent!

A one tenth increase is better than this however. No surprise if you've been following this one. Hiland Partners (HLND) and Hiland Holdings (HPGP) are eliminating the distribution all together which puts them in violation of minimum payout covenants etc etc. They have an offer from Harold Hamm which he lowered (no surprise) for both the LP and the GP. Commodity price exposure has killed this mlp which once traded in the lower 60s.

We have Teppco earnings this morning and the company is also ex distribution this morning by 73 cents. The company says they were "pleased" with the results achieved under recessionary conditions.

Okay we are coming off a 3 point plus gain yesterday in MLPS while the marketst themselves closed lower on the day. And that gain also came in the face of energy stocks being weak so we are enjoying some postitive divergence here and i expect it to continue. 220-230 is my next upside target on the MLP index. That takes us back to an early November high from the October sell off.

Stock futures this morning are weak by 100 dow points as the markets focus on all sorts of distractions from financials failing stress tests to swine flu. Crude is down a buck as it follows equity.

Monday, April 27, 2009


Up nearly 3 points on the MLP index as we have now broken out above the sawtooth ledge on the chart capped at 206. Next stop is 220-230 in my view which takes us back to the November rally high.

Inergy Holdings (NRGP) is bowling along up nearly 2 dollars on the big distribution hike and leads the way higher. Atlas Energy Resources (ATN) and Atlas Energy (ATLS) are merging. Both stocks are up fractionally. The other Atlas shares (AHD,APL) are not doing much this morning. Alliance Resource (ARLP) and Plains All American (PAA) are both up 1 among the bigger movers.

MLP tape looking good today as is the overall market given the swine flu hysteria.
A monstrous distribution boost by Inergy Holdings which goes from 67.5 cents to a whopping 75 cents. These days that is a nice kick upward. Inergy LP also raises its payout for the 30th straight quarter.

EARNINGS DISTRIBUTIONS AND SWINE FLU!



Monday morning always tends to bring something out of left field and Swine Flu is on the front page. You can follow the latest on Swine Flu on twitter at cdcemergency. And speaking of twitter across the page on the top of the side bar are my latest twits (pronounced tweets and not twits) and i will be using this to post short market messages when i'm not necessarily near my computer along with other quick links. And of course if interested you can follow me on twitter directly.

Ok we have some MLP news this morning as earnings from Duncan Partners (DEP) with a 50% increase in earnings and a big increase in distributable cash flow due to an asset dropdown. Also we have earnings from Boardwalk Partrners (BWP) which reports higher revenues, lower earnings, and there were some earnings adjustments done to Q1 in 2008 and if i read it correctly they adjusted that number higher. No mention of distributable cash flow numbers in the press release. Alliance Resource (ARLP) reports another record quarter and a 2 cent distribution increase which is nice for holders. It has held up better than most mlps however it its pointing to lower revenues for 2009 and is adjusting 2009 guidance accordingly.

This morning in the overall markets is all about swine flu and the market impact so its down down down on futures as we look for a dow open of down well over 100 points as of this post. And of course crude is lower by over 2 bucks as crude follows equities. Lately buying the dip has been the right strategey and my guess is it will be no different this time.

This week is the build up to the Kentucky Derby which is this Saturday May 2nd and for those of you who are interested in my never to be humble opinion here is a piece i wrote this weekend which has my Derby observations.

Keep an eye on the twitters on the sidebar for breaking headlines.

Saturday, April 25, 2009

OKAY I SURRENDER! I'M TWITTERING!



On the sidebar you will notice some short posts. I have been resisting twittering but there you have it. Technology has enslaved us all so i am forced to do it! Actually keep an eye on the twits because i will use it to shoot small posts of what is going on when i can't sit down to do a full blog post. Also if you live in NY or surrounding areas i wll post links to my meterology blog in case you need a forecast for New York City and surrounding areas. Also check out Stocktwits which could prove useful.

Friday, April 24, 2009

HIGH YIELD VS THE MLP INDEX. FOOD FOR THOUGHT!



We pushed up against the 206 level a little while ago and we've pulled back a touch from that today. Crude is up so that is leading big energy higher for the most part. Dow is off its highs up around 100 points as of this posting as they digest the stress test parameters.

Holly Energy Partners (HEP is the big winner today up 1.30 but most mlps are higher and in a range of between up half a dollar and down about forty cents. So after that sad start we are finishing the week about where we started which is a good thing. This of course barrs any last hour nonsense.
DISTRIBUTION NEWS CONTINUES TO BE SUPPORTIVE AS WE APPROACH 206!


Considering the distressed economy i would have thought that distribution news would be a little murky but apparently its been pretty good in my view. Somehow some mlps are managing to raise distribtions even if its only by 1/2 a cent or in some cases a full penny! Boardwalk Partners (BWP) boosts its payout and Markwest Energy (MWE) managed to keep their payout steady at 64 cents. There are still a few mlps out there we haven't heard from but if this is the worst of the economic conditions and these companies are doing okay then maybe the worst is truly behind us. Targa Resources(NGLS) keeps their payout unchanged while Spectra Energy Partners (SEP) nudges their payout higher. Magellan Midstream Partners keeps their distribution unchanged.

This morning stock futures have firmed up from overnight as earnigns continue to roll in and they are comin in better than forecast. So instead of hideous they are just awful. Crude is back over 50 bucks this morning as energy markets are firm as well. Tape action for mlps continues to remain constructive and also continues to flash signals of normalcy. They are trading they way they used to trade back in more normal times...slow upticks or downticks. Now if we can only get them back to what we used to view as normal prices for our shares!

Thursday, April 23, 2009

Linn Energy says the payout is coming and the stock is up 75 cents. Hat tip to Printeam!

Dow up nearly 60 now and mlps approaching 205 on the index! Glory!
Building on a 2 point gain now as we continue to slowly add strength tick by tick. Like the action in here. Holly Partners (HEP) is up 2.15 on the distribution hike and is today's biggest winner so far. Energy stocks as a whole are gaining strength today.
Interesting day as MLPS are now inching toward the highs of the day up about 1.50 and nearing 204 while the dow has sold off and is dow around 60 points. Its another one of these days of strength slowly inching up little by little.

Suburban Propane(SPH) leads the way higher up a point as it increases the payout by half a cent. That seems to be enough for the market these days. Holly Partners (HEP) is also up 1 as it just now announces a distribution boost by 1 whole cent. Penn Virginia Resources (PVR) is up 50 cents on its distribution announcement and Penn Virginia Holdings (PVG) is announcing an unchanged payout.

Losers include TC Pipelines (TCLP) and Quicksilver Gas (KGS) which are down major fractions right now but no news that i could find. Otherwise the losers on the list are not news driven and the moves are relatively small.
DOW INDUSTRIALS VS THE MLP INDEX
WHICH IS LOOKING BETTER?



I usually put both charts up side by side to give us perspective in both directions. So when looking at these charts which one looks better. Well to be perfectly frank neither one makes you want to shout for joy. The mlp index chart to me looks like much more of a base building type look. What concerns me about the dow chart is that we have been on this rally phase since mid March and it seems almost reflexive here rather than anything coming of a solid base. If we on the other hand look at the dow chart in its entire view, i suppose you could argue that we have been building a base since the November lows. I would like to see at least an attempt to take out some of the highs sitting above us before getting to excitied. I think we're vunerable to another sell off at some point in the overall market. The mlp index chart however has been in a mode where we've been making higher lows and we need to decisively take out 206 on a close to make a higher high. Not there yet but we are trying. 220 remains the key level above us.

Its only half a cent but Natural Resource Partners (NRP) hikes the payout. At least its something. No other news items this morning. Stock futures are flat to a little higher and crude is higher by just under a buck at this time. Interest rates on the 10 year are approaching 3% and this is a level we need to watch. A push above that level could be a signal that the flight to quality continues to ease as we take the credit markets on their very slow path to normalcy.

Wednesday, April 22, 2009


As pointed out by a reader here...this could be a breakout on the chart. Global Partners (GLP) seems to be among the leaders.

MLP index closed down a quarter as the market sold off in the last half hour to an 82 down loss. 8000 on the dow seems to be a formidable obstacle.
Its been one of those days where the MLP index has been slowly gaining strength and is now up nearly 1.50 and at the highs of the day. Global Partners (GLP) needed to only announce the distribution was intact and the stock is up 2 dollars right now at just under 15. It is todays biggest winner. EV Partners (EVEP) Holly Partners (HEP) and Williams (WPZ) are all up about 1 point each. Losers are few and down just small fractions.

The tape action remains very positive in my view and 206 is still hovering above as the breakout point.
We have distribution news from Global Partners (GLP) which is unchanged from last quarter.

Stock futures have weakened pre-open and so has crude but we've this before lately where they sell em early and buy em later.

Back to normal blogging for the rest of the week!
STRADDLING THE TOP OF THE RANGE






I still think the path of least resistence is higher as we seem to have been in this sawtooth looking rally. 2 steps foward 1 step back seems to moving us along to higher lows. 206 is the short term ceiling we have to get through. The high yield chart is mirroring this. So let us continue along this route to see where it takes us.

Not much on the news front in MLP land this morning nor do we have any upgrades or downgrades. We should be getting the bulk of distribution announcements in the next week or so with earnings reports scattered throughout. And its only .005 but El Paso Partners (EPB) boosts the distribution.

One of the things i will be curious about will be what happens to MLPS that have cut payouts last quarter and what they will do this quarter. Also guidance from companies that have cut the payouts completely will at least give us an idea of whats coming down the road. Breitburn (BBEP) was up yesterday after cutting the payout the day before and that could be due to the company guidance being ok. Maybe the view is the payout will be gone only for a short time and that the company is doing the right thing. Could be the reason the stock didn't collapse to a one handle like Crosstex (XTEX) and a few others. Crude this morning is a little higher ahead of inventory numbers. Stock futures are lower this morning but not collapsing by any means.

This morning i will be on the phone with Charles Schwab as they screwed up my 990t filing on my ira. I hold and trade mlps in my ira and UBTI has never been an issue. They used the wrong numbers on the filing so it says i owe a nice chunk of taxes. Looks to me like they pulled the wrong number off the K-1. Isn't that just special.

Tuesday, April 21, 2009

The mlp index is bouncing up today as we are back over 202; briefly dropping under 200 this morning. The dow is up 85 points as we head into the last hour.

Hiland Partners (HLND) and Hiland Holdings (HPGP) are the big losers today as the takeover on the table gets cut. Both stocks are down around 20% and they were both in single digit land anyway. Otherwise we have mostly fractional gains on the board this afternoon.
HILAND TAKEUNDER!



I've been wondering about the Hiland Partners (HLND) takeover offer from Harold Hamm since its been over 3 months. Well wonder no more as we have this from the board where Mr Hamm is cuttting its price to 7.80 for the units and 2.40 for Hiland Holdings (HPGP) siting further deterioration of energy prices. No surprise really. Stocks traded at 60 bucks and 30 bucks once upon a time. Just another sign of the times.

Looks stable this morning at this juncture as markets come off yesterdays 300 ish sell off and the mlp index 4 point decline. I have a long day ahead and i will post an update this afternoon.

Monday, April 20, 2009

BRIETBURN ELIMINATES THE DISTRIBTUION
AS MLPS SWOON..AS IS EVERYTHING ELSE!


The Breitburn (BBEP) distribution elimination actually was announced Friday after the close and the stock is taking a 3 point hit today as it trades at 5.70. No reason to hold an mlp if you are not getting paid to hold it. What probably keeps this one from falling completely into the abyss is that the companies guidance for 2009 is not too bad and that company is doing this to keep it within all its loan covenants. Still down 3 points is a big percentage cut.

Meanwhile today looks like one of those horrible days we saw so much back near the beginning of the year and we have the dow down 270 as of this post and the mlp index down about 4 and at the lows of the day.


Crude oil is getting hammered down over 4 dollars as it follows equities so the day is a mess as we head into the last hour.

Kinder Morgan (KMP) is actually up fractionally today. Transmontaigne (TLP) and TC Pipelines (TCLP) are today's other small winners. Otherwise lots of losers being led down by Enbridge (EEP) down nearly 2 and Holly Partners (HEP) down 1 and some change. EV Partners (EVEP) and Plains All American (PAA) also showing 1 point plus losses.

Quicksilver Gas (KGS) announces its distribution. The stock is down 70 cents. Ferrellgas has some positive financing news and the stock is up 17 cents as of this post.

Sorry for the late first post today as i am finishing up on a job that has me tied up a bit. I should be back to normal Wednesday.

Friday, April 17, 2009

Getting pretty close to the 205 level. Could be an interesting close for MLPS today.
The mlp index has almost a 2 point gain and we are over 204. What is interesting to me is that mlps are trading daily like they used to trade when in an uptrend; a sort of slow methodical increase in prices with the occasional downswing on no volume. Financials are rallying at lunch time after a morning selloff. So everything seems to be moving the right way. Oneok LP (OKS) is the big winner today up 92 cents. Most mlps are up fractions. The losers list is pretty small with no big movers there.
The mlp index is approaching the very top of its recent range up 1.31 at 203 and some change. 205 is the area to be watched carefully.
HIGH YIELD INDEX BREAKING OUT!
COULD BE THAT MLP RALLY HAS MORE TO GO!






A nice developement in the high yield index as we are in the process of breakout of this base that has developed on the chart. We need to clear that 3.20 level on this chart. And since the high yield chart and the mlp chart are pretty much tracking each other virtually step by step, we should keep an extra close eye on it. There are still many mlps out there yielding 15-20% and if yields spreads ever normalize many of these mlps are sitting on a double. If we combine that with maybe a return to a day of distribution increases and you have the ingredients for some major upside.



This morning looks like a typical Friday in MLP land where we don't see much on the newsfront. A few minor news items but nothing earth shattering. Constellation Partners (CEP) yesterday climbed up to 2.81 which was a nice percentage gain. No news that i saw so we'll just take that as one of those moves you get sometimes in stocks under 5 bucks.

Crude is flat this morning as we continue to hover around 50 bucks. Stock futures are flat but we have earnings from GE which were better than forecast. Financials continue to do quite well so as long as they have the bit in their teeth. the overall market will be supportive. Nothing on the upgrade downgrade list so far.

Back to normal today. I have 2 more crazy days to deal with next week and then things should settle down.

Thursday, April 16, 2009

EARNINGS, DISTRIBUTIONS, AND MORE



Some semblence of normalcy creeping into my life today as we start the day having to chew threw lots of news from last night. First off we have earnings from Kinder Morgan (KMP) and a 1.05 distribution coming to unitholders. Enterprise Products Partners (EPD) is boosting their payout again; 18 quarters in a row. Duncan Partners (DEP) also boosts its distribution. Copano didn't raise the distribution but kept in unchanged. And Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) priced its public offering.



Today we have earnings from Williams Partners (WPZ) to look ahead to. They should be out before the open. And btw in case you missed it the Barrons MLP piece is now available for free.

Markets are a little weaker this morning after yesterday but nothing tragic. Looks like just the usual morning noise. Crude is a little higher, Dollar is a little stronger against the euro, weaker against the yen.

Charts above continue in repair mode with the MLP index in better shape. MLPS closed a little lower yesterday as Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) was the main drag. Smaller mlps held up pretty well. Today the index will be impacted by Kinder Morgan (KMP) so we will watch the market reaction there on its earnings and distribution news. Enterprises boost should help the index. So lots of cross currents today to deal with.

Wednesday, April 15, 2009

In case you haven't read it the Barrons MLP piece is now available free!

Markets late day rally led again by the financials which is a good thing! Dow up over 100 and mlps cut their losses to a fraction.
Down justa little over 1 point on the MLP index and this is primarly due to Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) down over 2 dollars on an equity offering. The index broke under 200 but is now back to 201 as of this post. Crude up a nickle with the dow up about 40 points with the arrivial of the beige book at 2pm

Tuesday, April 14, 2009

Again sorry for the lack of posts but my life is in a bit of a mess this week working 2 jobs at once plus a colonoscopy appointment! Isn't that fabulous. MLPS closed up today but we do have another offering for Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) on the order of 7 million units and DCP Midstream had their ratings downgraded by Fitch whcih may or many not mean anything. Oneok (OKS) keeps the quarterly distribution at 1.08. I should get back to some semblence of normalcy Thursday and Friday.

Monday, April 13, 2009


THE BARRONS BOUNCE AND MLPS RALLY!



We're back over 201 on the index as we closed up 2.72 to 201.32. The 205 level would constitute an upside breakout and then we can shoot for the top of the range around 220.

News after the close as top performer Sunoco Logistics is doing a public offering of over 2 million shares. Stock traded down over 2 dollars after the close and changed hands just above 50. Energy Transfer Equity (ETE) was the big winner from the Barrons piece on MLPS over the weekend. The stock closed up 1.08 and is now over 23 bucks and well off the lows. In fact we are at 6 month highs on this one.



The Barrons goose may have more of a one day boost in here. Energy stocks today were generally weak and if we can get some movement there MLPS may be able to keep going. Also its good to see the financials moving higher in all of this and leading the way. The Derexion Triple Financials (FAS) have gone from 2.60 to 10 bucks since mid March. Not bad at all!

Stock futures tonight are sharply higher with the dow futures up over 70 points. The bulls still are in control!

I have a busy week ahead so blogging will be a bit on the light side Tomorrow and Wednesday. I will post when i can. Lots of work for a change!!!
SORRY for the lack of posts today. Easter Weekend plus a long work day today plus taxes due and i have not had much time other than to sneak looks from time to time. The mlp index closes up 2 and a half points and over 200 as we got the Barrons goose this weekend. I will post later with more details.

Thursday, April 09, 2009

Most mlps are up fractions to a point with the index up 1.55. The 2 index heavyweights Kinder Morgan (KMP) and Enterprise (EPD) Nustar (NS) and Buckeye (BPL) are doing nothing today so they are dragging a bit. Plains All American (PAA) ups the distribution and comments favorably on guidance. Stock up 1. Holly Partners (HEP) up 1.55 is the biggest winner so far today.
BLASTOFF!



It looked to be a quiet morning what with Passover underway and the Good Friday-Easter Holiday weekend getting ready to begin. And then in the time it took for me to walk the dog out came Wells Fargo with a shocker as not only earnings preannounced that are double expectations but they said the Wachovia takeover is going much better than expected. And suddenly futures went from +3 to +16 on the S&P being led by financials. And we have nicely higher crude by a buck sixty and you have the ingredients for a good day for MLPS. I would imagine the pace of trading will slow considerably after the open.

No corporate developements and no upgrades or downgrades so far.

Wednesday, April 08, 2009

Nustar (NS) tells us in some headlines that it expects lower transportation volumes but higher results from its storage units. Stock is up 50 cents.

Market can't seem to get it going in either direction today as the dow sits just about unchanged as we start the last hour. It had been up over 80 points at one juncture this afternoon. The mlp index was up nearly 3 but it has pulled back somewhat from the highs.
The mlp index is up nearly 2 points this morning after a slightly negative start. The high yield index closed at 2.99 yesterday and for now remains relatively supportive. No big losers this morning and only a handful of mlps are down by small fractions. No big winners either and most mlps are fractionally higher. Atlas Pipeline Partners (APL) is only a touch higher and Spectra Energy (SEP) is benefiting more ; up 60 cents on its deal with Atlas Pipeline on the purchase of the NOWARK gas system.

Trading appears boring and a bit directionless today at least so far.
ATLAS PIPELINE PARTNERS DOES
SOME MORE RESHUFFLING





When your chart looks like this you need serious help. Atlas Pipeline Partners (APL) is on the move this morning as it sells its NOWARK gas transmission system to Spectra Energy Partners (SEP). For Spectra its a good deal for unit holders as they get a distribution boost of a penny. The financing of this deal is important.

The Company expects long-term financing for the transaction to be a combination of debt and equity consistent with its current and target capital structure. Pending long- term financing, the Company expects to utilize its existing credit facility and a bridge loan from its sponsor, Spectra Energy Corp.

"This financing approach retains more than sufficient liquidity to fund projects currently in execution into 2010, while maintaining our strong balance sheet and investment- grade credit metrics," added Rizzo.

So its nice to see a deal getting done these days. On the Atlas Pipeline side the money will be used to pay down debt.

Gene Dubay, President and Chief Executive Officer of Atlas Pipeline stated, “With this sale and the previously announced Williams transaction, we will be paying down approximately $400 million of debt. We continue to work on other transactions which should generate additional cash and further de-lever our company. Concurrently, we are focusing on APL’s core strengths which, in our opinion, will make the new, leaner APL a stronger provider of gathering and processing services in the Mid-Continent and in Appalachia, where our new alliance with Williams will allow us to accelerate our Marcellus initiatives.”

Premarket shows Atlas is getting bid up to 5 dollars up 47 cents. No indications on Spectra.

Meanwhile the markets were sharply lower this morning but as news leaked on impending treasury action on insurance companies financials rallied and stock futures have turned nicely higher. Crude is down a bit this morning with a 48 handle. Inventory numbers due out this morning. No other corporate developements this morning at least so far.

Passover begins at sundown tonight and tomorrow is Holy Thursday. Look for the pace of trading to slow as we head into a 3 day Easter Weekend.


Tuesday, April 07, 2009

FWIW here is the first of what will be several forecasts of the impending doom that hurricane season will be or in this case won't be. What gets lost on these bozos is that the forecast is about total activity and not about whether the storms will make landfull or not. But no matter; nat gas is in a bear market anyway.

Down 1.44 of the mlp index as of the approaching lunch hour with the dow down about 140. Genesis (GEL) up 60 cents on the distribution boost. EV Partners (EVEP) is up 20 cents among the few small winners. Inergy Holdings (NRGP) is down about 1 point as the biggest loser. Buckeye GP (BGH) Teppco (TPP) Holly Partners (HEP) and Martin Midstream (MMLP) are the leading losers down strong fractions.
VACATION MOOD THIS WEEK. WEAK OPEN APPROACHES



Futures are down this morning ahead of the open by over 100 points on the dow. Not sure what the specific news driver is other than perhaps we are still correcting the rally from 6500. MLPS held up okay yesterday as they cut their losses as the market did in the last hour. Tape action is much better in these selloffs lately which leads me to remain constructive.

The high yield index is about to break out of a base here which should bode well for MLPS as these two charts are basically moving tick for tick.

We have a nice piece of news from Genesis Energy (GEL) which is boosting its distribution by 3.75 cents from a year ago but just by .75 cents from last quarter. Still its better than a cut! Hopefully its a good sign of the month ahead.

No other news this morning and no upgrades or downgrades. So lets get through the open on this semi vacation week for most people.

Monday, April 06, 2009

Markets are solidly lower at lunchtime and MLPS are going along for the ride. Dow down 140. MLP index down 2.50. Plains All Amercan (PAA) Alliance Resource (ARLP) and Sunoco Logistics (SXL) are leading the index lower down 1 point or more. Most mlps are fractionally lower today.

Legacy(LGCY) is still up nearly 3 on a 14 dollar offer to go private. Atlas Pipeline Partner (APL) is up 40 cents or nearly 9% today. No news there but the stock has been acting a little better since it did that restructuring think last week with Atlas Resource (ATN). Hiland Partners (HLND) and Hiland Holdings (HPGP) showing small upticks as they have an offer on the table since late January.

I suppose a sell off was in order here as we topped 8000. Lets see where it takes us but the tape feels better in here than in other sell offs we've seen.
Legacy Partners (LGCY) gets a proposal to go priviate at 14 dollars a share which explains why the stock is up 3 dollars at 13!
Spoke too soon i guess as some bank anal-ist comes out this morning and tells us...now brace yourselves its a real shocker...sell the bank stocks! Futures have come off from this ponitification and are a little lower now and crude which is tied to stocks has turned a little lower too. Oh well nothing tragic.
NEW WEEK STARTS POSITIVE PLUS
THE TWO BEST HORSES IN AMERICA


MLPS begin a new week at 196.06 and we are probably going to challenge the top of this range at 205. Thats a pretty logical place to go. At least we are seeing crude moving along and solidly back over 50 bucks which is supportive

Soon comes another round of earnings and distribution announcements and if the worst of the credit crisis is behind us then we could be looking foward to better conditions for mlps.Of course we are married to the high yield index.

There is an important level to watch her and thats the 3.1 level which would be a breakout if that is achieved. We shall of course watch very carefully.

This morning its a bit quiet with no corporate developemets and no upgrades or downgrades so far. But the morning is early.

Now lets do the fun part. In my view after the weekend races these are the 2 best 3 year old horses in America!




I WANT REVENGE is my derby horse. Saturdays win in the WOOD at Aqueduct was extra impressive because of the disastrous break he had coming out of the gate and the horse found a way to win. He has that character that potential champions have where they want to pass horses. And he does it with style! RACHEL ALEXANDRA will go in the Kentucky Oaks the day before and i doubt you will see many other horses to take her on. She appears to be something very special and has yet to be seriously tested. Watch Calvin Borel on her as he is pretty much standing all the way around. Pioneer of the Nile will come out of the Santa Anita Derby where he won handily but with the scratch of the Pamplemoose he wasn't facing much in my view. 4 weeks to the Oaks and Derby!!!

Friday, April 03, 2009


Do you think there is a connection here. MLP index vs the High Yield Index. They are moving perfectly in line so we know what we have to watch!


Thanks to Mr Pipes for this idea...look pretty similar don't they!!!




Some of the "better" looking charts. We should have sold our holdings last year and moved into Sunoco Logistics (SXL) and we would have actually made money! BTW i have noticed that a number of other mlps are on the verge of breaking out of 6 month base formations. It could be that we are setting up for that to happen in the next rotational correction of the overall market. Just a thought!
ITS ABOUT EMPLOYMENT (AGAIN) AND 8000



Debate on the board and worry sprung up yesterday as frustration has developed over the MLP index relative underperformance over the last 2 weeks. Mr Pipes chimes in (couldn't resist)

Just a disgusting performance from the MLP sector the last few days (weeks).
Massive strength across the board and MLP's can only manage sidewyas action.

And we have Steve who is feeling a bit dire these days.

And what's worse is the fact that while the major averages gave up a 25% of their gain on the close, the AMZ lost 1/2 of its gain. My own portfolio gain was 4% at the high today, but closed up less than 2%. Most of the issues closed much closer to their lows than their highs. I agree. Disgusting.

You'd think that mark-to-market easing would help the MLPs by virtue of the fact that banks would have an easier time lending to them.


So what do we make of all of this? Well i thought we should take a step back from the day to day action and look at this on the weekely charts. The picture here is still not very pretty.




Neither chart inspires confidence really as both remain under their moving averages. However repair jobs have to start somewhere. The mlp weekly chart still looks better than the dow chart. This rally that started on the dow at 6400 and on the mlp index at 165 are both still within the context of their bottoms. At least so far its nothing more than a rally with a lot of headroom. Resistence is above us and the test will come when we get there and pull back. MLPS did well in the first quarter so we could be seeing nothing more than rotation out of the very few winners and into the sexy specs. Look at tech stocks. They have been foaming at the mouth in here. So i still say lets not read too much into this bit of relative stalling in here.

We got above 8000 on the dow yesterday which was nice to see. Futures are a little higher this morning ahead of what will be ugly employment numbers. No corporate developements and no upgrades or downgrades.

A number of mlps are pushing up against 6 month highs and some are closing in on 52 week highs. This certainly is a positive technical developement. More on this later. No corporate developements this morning and no upgrades or downgrades so far. Crude is up a few pennies this morning as that complex continues to move lock step with equities.

Thursday, April 02, 2009

Its all up today with the dow up nearly 300 points right now on terrific breath and decent volume. The mlp index is up nearly 5 points as we get close to 200. The dow is back over 8000.

1 point plus gains in Oneok (OKS) Nustar (NS) Sunoco Logistics (SXL) T.C. Pipelines (TCLP) Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) and EV Partners (EVEP). A number of MLPS are trading at 6 month highs and approaching some chart breakout points. TC Pipelines and DCP Midstream are 2 of those. Sunoco Logistics is approaching a 52 week high.

Only 2 issues are down right now and that only pennies; probably from lack of interest more than anything else.
THERE IS STILL ROOM TO MOVE HIGHER
FUTURES START STRONG THIS MORNING.



After we started the week with a 250 point loss we got it all back pretty much and today futures pre open are telling us we will be moving foward and strongly so. Off the morning highs as we wait for possible accounting rule changes for banks. Financials are leading in the premarket as well. The charts are interesting in that the Dow chart is still exhibiting that we are in a bottoming process and we can certainly take it up to 8250-8300 on the dow just to take us to the top of the channel that has developed.


The mlp index chart is in a congestion zone as the moving averages are converging in here and we could be setting up for a run back above 200. I would think if this dow rally takes to the low 8000s we should easily be able to take us back to the 205 top we reached back in early February.

European Central Bank only cut 25 basis points..some were hoping for 50. Dollar is selling off anyway against the euro but rising against the yen and nearing 100 yen again. No corporate developements for mlps this morning so far. No upgrades or downgrades either.

24/7 Wall Street has an oil and gas section you should bookmark to follow latest energy headlines. Goldman story yesterday on crude price targets. They are raising them.

Wednesday, April 01, 2009

Up 100 on the dow and up 2 on the MLP index. Crude down 2 dollars on bearish inventory.
All those protests in Euorpe at the G-20 kind of reminded me of this.


Is Atlas Pipeline Partners (APL) one of the survivors of this mess? Well they are restructuring in a sense with this arrangement with Atlas Resource (ATN). Williams is getting involved as well. The Atlas family of stocks are all up with pipeline (APL) and Holdings (AHD) showing the largest percentage gains.

After a soft start MLPS have moved higher ahead of the market as financials lead. So far so good for Q2!
FIRST QUARTER OVER WITH BUT IT ACTUALLY ENDED ON JANUARY 3!






That first day of the quarter took us from 176 to 191 and thats where we ended the quarter on the MLP index! We spent the other 89 days essentially going sideways albeit in a wide range from 165 to 205. Still up is up and we outperformed the S&P by 20 percent and for that we are very happy! And we are up over 10% for the year total return which also we are happy about.

Okay so today begins a new quarter and futures are a little lower this morning to start but nothing tragic. Futures actually were down well over 100 points last night before steadily cutting losses. No corporate news in mlp land and so far no upgrades or downgrades.

Its April Fools Day and as a result we have a sample of an idiot!



I need not say anything. We also have this fabulous news from the Peoples Republic Of the State of Washington. The government wants you to make sure you wash dishes correctly.