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Monday, December 31, 2007

Sorry guys...i've had my hands full all day. I hate Microsoft...i hate windows. My next computer will be a mac.

Anyway tax loss nonsense winding down. Look for last 1/2 swings. Otherwise enjoy the new year and see you on Wednesday. I should be up full steam by then.
What a nightmare. I was blogging this morning when my laptop just died on me. So i've been spending the last 3 hours getting back up to speed. I'm still not there yet. We're down but not by anything tragic. Looks like MLPS continue to see year end maneuvering so look for some volitility.

Let me get back to fixing this mess.

Friday, December 28, 2007


Year end action continues and in that low volume selloff yesterday on the overall tape, MLPS rallied to the flat line in the last hour recovering from a point and half loss earlier. So i think the rally resumes today. We still have lots of year end distortions going on and Monday is the last day of trading for tax purposes. A few MLPS have not rallied yet such as Holly Partners (HEP), Penn Virginia Holdings (PVG) Constellation Partners (CEP) among others...and you can guess that i own all three although the PVG is one i have been buying over the last 2 days. So look for some catch up. I also bought Atlas Holdings (AHD) as this one will be yielding 6.5% going foward and is way off its high for the year which was around 46 so it has some headroom.

No news and no upgrades or downgrades. Stock futures are higher and bond yields are lower this morning. Energy is higher with oil over 97 bucks.

Thursday, December 27, 2007

As the dow is selling off to new lows...the mlp index is gaining and is at new highs on the day.
Close to unchanged here as we head into the last hour.
Lunchtime and after a drop of a point and half the MLP index has climbed back to a small fractional loss of 30 cents. Nustar (NS) Calumet (CLMT) Boardwalk (BWP) Martin Midstream (MMLP) and Kinder Morgan (KMP) are leading the winners list with increases of 50 cents or so each.

On the losers list Williams Partners (WPZ) and Amerigas (APU) showing losses of 75 cents to 1 dollar. Inergy Holdings (NRGP) Quest Partners (QELP) Copano (CPNO) and Penn Virginia Holdings (PVG) are fractional losers.

Overall market down 130 on the dow but MLPS are holding up very well. Unless the market completely falls apart i would look for another MLP rally attempt this afternoon.

I figured it was time for a long and short term chart look just to set some perspective and you'll notice that in the longer term chart we have been in this corrective phase since August but look at the end of 2005 and its almost a carbon copy.

Back in '05 the rally began on 12/24 and it lasted into the mid Feburary, followed by a pause and then another leg. In total it was an over 30 point move from low to high or about 16%. Its never exactly the same but for laughs a perfect repeat performance would take us from the 290 low to possibly back to the old 342 high. Maybe a stretch but in the meantime we've turned and the path of least resistence is higher for now.

Short term the chart is bullish as we have come off a triple bottom and the first line to get through would be the 310-313 level on the index. Yesterday's action was impressive with the morning spend backing and filling and then the buyers arrived with both hands in the afternoon as we closed with an almost 3 point gain.

This morning we have some pressure due to geo political issues with the death of Bhutto in Pakistan. But we are in our own little world so after the open we should see the rally continue.

No news this morning and no upgrades or downgrades so bring on the open.

Wednesday, December 26, 2007

Closed up nearly 3 points and at the high of the day. 310 on the chart is where resistence and we can get there in a hurry.

I'm sorry for the thin posts but i 'm on no sleep for the last 3 days as i have been working late night and early morning shifts which just kill me. So i can't seem to keep a thought in my head without it hurting badly. Tonight its back to normal sleep and i should be recharged and refreshed in the morning with a clearer perspective.

BTW some MLPS have not moved much yet and those include Atlas Pipeline Partners (APL) and Holly Partners (HEP). If we are re-playing 2005 Holly could have a big move in a hurry starting late Friday as tax loss selling abates. Not sure with Atlas but i added to my position today and i'm looking for this one to play catch up soon.
Over 300 on the index after a little backing and filling this morning. The path of least resistence seems higher here. Alliance Resource (ARPL) and Calumet (CLMT) are both up nearly a point each and lead the winners list.

Welcome to all on this boxing day where i supppose many of us would prefer not to see anything resembling food after yesterday. And i hope everyones Christmas was a good one. We got a nice 5 point rally on Monday and we are now near 300 again on the MLP index and 10 points above the low of last week. Does it continue today? Sure as hell hope so. And while Monday's volume was not exactly inspiring all the year end pressure seems to have come off as i noticed on the tape that sellers seemed to have all but disappeared. There is lots of headroom here for mlps to run up before even coming close to being overbought. Take a look at DCP Midstream(DPM) which has rallied 8 points in the last 2 days once the sellers went away. Atlas Pipeline (APL) didn't start to move until Monday and Nustar (NS) is another one that has room to run. So i think we have the wind at our backs at least until year end. And today is the last day you can sell if you need your trade to settle in 2007.

No news that i can see so far. More later when i get home from work.

Friday, December 21, 2007


Just made a new high on the day.
Looks like we're going to go out near the highs of the day. MLPS acting very well. Maybe we successfully retested and made a triple bottom but it won't be known for a few weeks. We would need to break above 310. Options expiration and year end stuff will make for an interesting close for sure.
Well we seem to be picking up some steam here as the MLP index is now back to 291.55 and ticking higher. There continue to be some year end distortion as some of the big caps like Nustar(NS) and Plains All American (PAA) are weighing the index by being flat or down. But some of the smaller caps that have been beaten down pretty badly are up nicely. Linn Energy (LINE) and Calumet (CLMT) are both up over 1. Eagle Rock(EROC) is up nicely as are Breitburn (BBEP) Penn Virginia Holdings (PVG) and new issue Quest Energy Partners (QELP).

I'm starting to feel a little better as the mlp tape has a nicer feel to it. Certainly its better than anything we've seen in weeks.
Well its lunch time and we haven't imploded. And here 's something new. Linn Energy (LINE) is actually near its high of the day up 82 cents. Even Eagle Rock (EROC) is up! The MLP index dropped under 291 but is now at 291.30. Btw we have been down 7 out of the last 8 weeks on the MLP index.
Sorry guys. Maybe its the bear in me but i'm just not impressed. We continue to be met by sellers in here. There is plenty of time for that double pump and of course its where we are at the end of the day and not at 10:30 in the morning. But frankly they will have to prove it to me.
A 2 point plus bounce at the open. We have pulled back from there with the index up 1.50. Call me skeptical but i'll wait for a double pump around 11am-noon. If it doesn't come, don't be surprised to see sellers. But at least the tape is favorable and its trying.

Linn managed to get 40 cents of upside on the deal news (whoppee...duh!).

Never a dull moment around here and this really will be interesting for sure. We have Linn Energy (LINE) which is promising a 2.52 distribution on a 23.00 stock price and a going foward yield of 10.9% this morning announcing a deal of over 1/2 a billion bucks and its immediately accretive to cash flow. More importantly they specifically said there will be no issuance of equity which should make the market happy. Conference call this morning at 11am. The sarcasm in me wants to say "this should be good to knock off 2 or 3 points and take the stock down to 20" but always the optimist we may actually see this open (dare i say it) higher. It might be nice if they come out and re-iterate the 2.52 annual distribution for Q1. Or would that cause the stock to sell off? (i'm pissed off right now!)

Lots of MLPS had blocks of size move in the last seconds of trading yesterday which drove the index down to 289.89.

Its now or never here kids as we are at a critical place on the charts. We are back at the August and October closing lows but still above the intra-day lows set during the mlp crash on that one huge August down day. Either it turns in here and we repeat December 2005 when the bottom was made on Dec 23 or prepare for more pain. With the yield spread at nearly 300 basis points...higher than it was in December 05....the odds are certainly in our favor.

Effectively this is the last full trading day of the year. Next week its pretty much a week off for most people so i have to believe anyone who had to sell or move stock of size has already done so. Stock futures are strong; up 100 dow points. Energy is higher and bond rates are sitting at just over 4%.

Just letting you guys know after today i will not be blogging until sometime next Wednesday afternoon. Christmas makes for busy times around here and that includes 3 family dinners beginning sunday...3 masses where this tenor gets to sing...and i am working through all of this as well. So the blog gets a rest. Let me just extend to all of you readers and posters a very Merry Chirstmas. In my view wishing someone a Merry Christmas is to extend the highest blessings to you and your family regardless of your faith (or non-faith). Ian Rand use to say that when asked as an aethist what happens when you sneeze and someone says God Bless You. We've become a generic society. We don't take the time anymore to get to know people so we use these generic phrases when speaking. It keeps us at a safe distance from the outside world. Its time we take a look at the consequences of such action. Its not pretty. So have yourself a Merry Christmas, eat lots of food, be happy, and do at least one kind thing to someone you know and maybe to someone you don't know!

Thursday, December 20, 2007

A couple of observations. Lots of block sales at the close among some of the big cap MLPS and that took the index down to 289.98 at the close. Nustar (NS) Oneok (OKS) Enterprise (EPD) and Kinder Morgan (KMP) downticking in late trading. Also over the last couple of days in the midst of all this selling we have insider buys and E V Partners (EVEP) Crosstex (XTEX) DCP Midstream (DPM) Holly Partners (HEP) Nustar (NS) and a few others. So we continue to see pressure and insiders stepping to the plate with their own money buying shares. Mark Ellis of Linn (LINE) appears to have exercised options for 50k shares. So we have the market pressuring MLPS and those in the know taking advantage of lower prices. We keep waiting for some sort of upside resolution to all this. Again I want to go back to Dec 2005 when we had a similar pattern which bottomed around Dec 24th and then a rally began which lasted into the spring of 06.

Also if a recession is at hand could we have a repeat of 2000-2002 when MLPS rallied as everything else sold off? Does money flow out of everything else and head for high yielding defensive issues? The situation is not exactly the same as we had the tech bubble burst and we came out of a period then where unsexy stocks went nowhere for a long time.

I guess we'll find out soon enough.
Look out below..290 may go!
Here is a shocker...the MLP index just fell to its low of the day and the low of the week.

I'm stunned!
Isn't it lovely?
When you look at the list of MLPS its the big caps that are down today and that accounts for the bulk of the loss. Kinder Morgan(KMP), Plains All American(PAA), Oneok LP (OKS) Energy Transfer (ETP) among the fractional losers of 50 cents or less. The smaller MLPS that have been going down for weeks are flat to even a touch higher like Duncan (DEP) Holly LP (HEP) and Nustar Holdings (NSH). The MLP index is down 1 and a fraction and near the week low of 2 days ago. It looks like they may be finally getting near the end of the super tax loss selling if they've shifted their interest to the bigger caps which have held up much better than everything else in this group.

The fat old bastard better have MLPS in his big red bag! Yesterday we went nowhere.

There are those who follow charts that might look at that triple bottom and say the end of this grueling period is here. Candlestick worshippers could look at that cross formation from yesterday as a bullish sign. We'll see. Nothing going on today corporate wise and no upgrades or downgrades so its year end stuff and options expiration that provides us with the main action today and tomorrow. Stock futures are strengthening this morning and it looks to me like the market wants to rally here. I went through the new lows list and did not see anything on there from yesterday so maybe some hope there. If this is like DEC 2005 then the bottom was either yesterday or today.

Wednesday, December 19, 2007

Some buyers have stepped up to the plate here.
While the MLP index is down .20 it is being dragged by two heavier weights in the index. Oneok LP(OKS) and Energy Transfer Equity (ETE); they are both down about 60 cents each. Otherwise there actually is a bit of an upside bias. Noticing a few off the overly beaten down MLPS like Linn Energy (LINE), DCP Midstream (DPM) and Holly Partners (HEP) showing some firmness. Nothing to write home about yet but its a start. I'm wondering whether the last of the tax loss selling will shift to the bigger cap MLPS which have held up better than some of the smaller and more speculative issues. Watching for clues.

Looks like yesterday's reversal is trying to build this morning in the overall market albeit slowly. MLPS finished flat yesterday after being up 1 and then down 1. We have some news leftover from last night as Energy Transfer Equity (ETE) is announcing a 4 month distribution as they rework their fiscal calendar. Not much else going on this morning. New issue Quest Energy Partners (QELP) is getting outperform nods from Wachovia, RBC and Friedman Billings while Steifel Nicholas starts it with a buy.

I'm not going to read anything into yesterday's action and prefer now to let it all just play out. Day to day its torture sometimes watching all this but longer term...lots of gifts out there!

Tuesday, December 18, 2007

Some buyers have arrived and that has taken us off the low of 291.39. The MLP index is now back to 292.60. Looks like the overall market is rallying nicely after dropping to 13090 this morning. Oops we are now up again on the index!

Semgroup Energy (SGLP)Partners is up 1 and change as the biggest winner. Looks like the list is split evenly between winners and losers. Hiland LP is down 1 and change as the biggest loser but on thin volume.

Fingers crossed that we made bottom.
Up half a point on the MLP index and off the highs of the day when we were (are you sitting down for this?) up a whole point! WOW!

Excuse me while i remain completely underwhelmed and head out to do pre Chirstmas stuff. I will check in later just for laughs!

I usually get very punchy after long stretches like this...and it comes close to a bottom when i don't want to watch anymore.

I was watching a few MLPS trade yesterday afternoon and i noticed some wholesale dumping of shares on some volume. It could be a climax in tax loss selling or perhaps not. Hard to say when the overall tape was under pressure. The MLP index is sitting now just a handful of ticks off the August lows in the 290 area.

Since November we've traded up on 8 days and down on 23. In terms of relative performance the big cap MLPS have fared much better then some of the newer issues and/or small caps. Still i have to believe the pressure comes off at anytime and when it does the bounce should be a nice one.

No upgrades or downgrades this morning and there are no corporate developements. I would expect things to be quiet on the news front until after the new year unless some stray equity offering comes along. over 2 billion is stock has hit the market this quarter which is a lot of pressure. Now with respect to the impact of the credit market issues we'll see if this move this morning by the European Central Bank this morning does something to bring risk takers back into the fold.

Headlines as they break. Stock futures are soaring this morning up 100 dow points. Energy is higher as well.

Monday, December 17, 2007

Not much new here as the selling continues. Nothing out of hand but we seem to be heading down toward that 290 low (AGAIN). Seems like they are rotating the sellers from day to day and E V Partners (EVEP)leads the way down 1 and change. Wachovia's nudge to Genesis (GEL) is doing nothing here..down almost 1 point.

On the winning side Penn Virginia Holdings (PVG) is up 1.45 as the biggest winners. Otherwise the few winners on the list like Boardwalk (BWP) Holly Partners (HEP) and some others are only up small fractions.

I guess that is the case until proven otherwise. 10 trading days left in the year. I've given up trying to pick a bottom. 290 is the logical place on the chart

Trading is getting very thin out there so it won't take much to move prices in either direction. In 2005 where we had a selloff from July through December followed by a nice January rally MLPS bottomed around Dec 26th. I hope Citigroup is right since they are making the comparison that we could be seeing a repeat performance.

Two upgrades this morning with TEEKAY (TGP) getting an upgrade from FBR and Genesis (GEL) gets an upgrade from Wachovia. No other news this morning.

Friday, December 14, 2007

I give up!
Linn in the premarket is bid 25 ask 27.

Morning headlines as Spectra Energy Partners is getting assets from Spectra Energy. Also new MLP Quest Energy Partners (QELP) affirmed its distribution in its 2008 capital budget.

We'll get a clue about this today after news last night that Omega Advisors bought Quantum's 4 million share stake. This yahoo message poster suggests that Omega has a long track record of being correct so we'll see. But consider this. Omega is getting 4 million shares that cost them about 23 bucks or so a share. If the Q1 2.52 distribution is correct they are getting a yield of about 11%. Would they have taken the stake if the 2.52 distribution were not going to happen? We've been saying all along that the market is telling us its either a screaming buy or that distribution is suspect and that a new position here could be a dice roll. The Omega purchase suggests the dice roll could have come up 7! Certainly the overhang of shares has just about played itself through as volume imploded yesterday and no visit to the new 52 week lows list.

If this is a typical Friday we won't see any major corporate headlines. Note Crosstex (XTEX) is doing a stock offering of under 2 million shares which by recent standards is small. No upgrades or downgrades so far but it's early.

Thursday, December 13, 2007

Okay so i think we now know who bought 4 million plus Linn Energy(LINE) shares yesterday.

This may mean that all the selling is finally done! I hope! Also Crosstex LP announces an offering of shares. Also Eagle Rock (EROC) redid its financing which results in rates 100 basis points lower than previous and a 5 million dollar savings in interest.
On the new 52 week lows list today

Atlas Pipeline Partners (APL)
Calumet Specialty Products (CLMT)
Eagle Rock Energy (EROC)

I might have missed a few. If i did please post on the comments.

MLP index closed above 295. 10 trading days left in 2007.
Linn Energy up 1.04 as of 2:45pm. Better than at a new 52 week low!
The 295 level appears to be the line in the sand. We got down to 294.40 and we are now back above 295. Linn Energy (LINE) is actually rallying today (be still our hearts with 2 hours to go). Also Penn Virginia Holdings (PVG) traded down under 29 and reversed and is back over 30. Eagle Rock (EROC) is still under water however. Nustar (NS) is down 1.20 and remains the biggest loser so far today.

The winners list has gotten a little longer with Energy Transfer Partners (ETP), Alliance Resource Holdings (AHGP) Constellation Partners (CEP) and Markwest (MWE,MWP) showing fractional gains.

The new lows list grew by a couple yesterday as Calumet (CLMT) Eagle Rock (EROC) Linn Energy (LINE) Williams Partners (WPZ) occupy space there. All but Linn Energy (LINE) so far today are on the list again. There are no news drivers this morning and no upgrades or downgrades so the year end selling continues. The MLP index is down 1.75 and sitting just above 295. The dow meanwhile is putting in a floor here and looks like it wants to go higher. Maybe we'll get some support later on...maybe not. The mood here is pretty dismal.

Very few stocks on the winner list. Linn Energy (LINE) is seeing a big drop in volume after yesterday's six million shares that crossed including one 4 million share block. I don't know if this means the overhang is over with. I've been fooled before. Nustar (NS) is down 1.21 as the biggest loser. Most MLPS are showing fractional losses.

Wednesday, December 12, 2007

Enough to make you ill but what are you going to do. Sellers met this morning's powerful up open and we are up less than 80 points and were down to plus 35 during lunchtime. MLPS opened higher...moved to unchanged and now are fractionally higher at 297 on the index.

New 52 week lows list includes Eagle Rock (EROC) and Linn Energy (LINE) which is now a 10% yield and yields over 11% for q1; both fractional losers today. Also down nearly 1 point are Hiland (HLND) and DCP Midstream (DPM).

Sunoco Logistics is up 1.20 and leads the winners list. Regency (RGNC) made another purchase today and the stock is up nearly 1 dollar. Fractional winners include Oneok (OKS) Crosstex (XTXI) and Boardwalk (BWP).

God knows how we will finish but i guess we have to bear in mind that the group still has lots of pressure on it and there are only 12 trading days left in the month after today.
Federal Reserve announcing a big effort with other central banks sending stock futures soaring. Since this is directed right at the credit markets it will be interesting to see if MLPS can get a nice rally out of this news since we have been victimized by the credit seizure.

I guess everyone is rushing to sell shares in equity offerings before the year ends and Energy Transfer Partners joins that party with a public offering of stock. The company however also issued guidance for 2008 which forecasts higher EBITA. Because the company is changing their fiscal year they are going to do a four month distribtuion to even things up. Reuters has a breakdown on the guidance increase.

Meanwhile we are all recovering from yesterday's post fed collapse. MLPS closed flat on the index after being up most of the day. Actually the group performed quite well yesterday until the fed news and then the market wagged the dog. I think going into the meeting MLPS were acting like the fed action would have loosened up the siezed up credit markets and the gas came out of the bag when that didn't happen. Still the action yesterday especially in some issues like Kinder Morgan Partners (KMP) was very encouraging that the group sell off may finally be winding down. 13 trading days left for tax loss selling. And i have to think that Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) equity offering may be among the last offerings coming on. Once that is discounted we may finally get to move foward.

Stock futures are sharply higher this morning with the dow futures up about 100 points and S&P futures are up nearly 14 points so we are getting some bounce in here on news that the fed may have more tricks up its sleeve. Energy is a little higher.

Tuesday, December 11, 2007

Dow selling off hard down 265...MLPS holding on to a fractional gain on the MLP index. 10 year rates imploding on the fed.
Market does not like the fed action of 25 and 25 on fed funds and the discount rate. Dow off 200 pts from the highs and down 165 on the day. MLPS still higher but well of their highs. We actually were closing in on a 2 point gain on the index before the fed news and we are now up 0.69. But this is still all the reflex trading. We'll await the last hour!
We've just broken above 298 up 1 and change and at the highs of the day. 45 minutes until the fed meeting. Global Partners (GLP) and Sunoco Logistics approaching 1 point gains. Oneok LP (OKS) Magellan Holdings (MGG) and Eagle Rock (EROC) are half point winners. Inergy Holdings (NRGP) E V Partners (EVEP) and Hiland (HLND) are on the losers list with 1 point or so losses in these three. Alliance Holdings (AHGP) Targa Resources (NGLS) and Teekay (TGP) are fractional losers.

fed announcement in about 35 minutes.
At the highs of the day up 1.02. I'm hoping that the fed action will be seen as a release for the credit markets and MLPS start to mount a serious rally. Almost all Mlps are in a range of -50 cents to plus 50 cents. Nice to see some of yesterday's bigger losers like Eagle Rock (EROC) for example getting back 50 cents today. Kinder Morgan (KMP)continues to rally and is now up another 42 cents and over 53 dollars.
Well for a change we opened about even with yesterday on the MLP index and we are now up on the day. And at least so far the half a point gain has been holding and not seeing sellers move into it. I know the day is young but it is mildly encouraging. DCP Midstream is getting back most of what it lost yesterday up just under 1 points. Otherwise most of today's moves are confined to a range from -40 cents to plus 40 least so far.
i don't often say much about politics because frankly i'm sure you could care less about my politics. But i have to say that this is the real reason why i just can't vote for Mitt Romney. I'm sure you will agree that we should draw the line somewhere!
Neglected to mention that Linn Energy (LINE) and Eagle Rock Partners (EROC) were on the list of stocks hitting 52 week lows. I would expect a few more to show up on that list if the trading pattern doesn't change.

News this morning as Regency Partners (RGNC) buys some assets from GE which owns the Regency GP. They'll be paying for it by issuing some class D units so there is no immediate dilution. More shares may come to market down the road but at least not today. No other corporate developements so we can shift our attention to the Fed which will cut rates today by 25 basis points which looks like its baked into the cake and probably signal more cuts are coming down the road. MLPS have not moved at all in the last couple of weeks as the overall market as rallied nearly 900 points on the Dow. The selling pressure continues and as i have said before its probably a combination of year end selling, unabating stock supply coming to market, and the credit markets which are simply not functioning. Now perhaps if the fed moves bigger on the discount rate today to get the credit markets moving again we can remove what is probably the biggest headwind we are dealing with. In the meantime we just drip drip drip lower lower lower.

No upgrades or downgrades this morning. Stock futures are higher as is energy. Ought to be an interesting day.

Monday, December 10, 2007

Market up again up 100 points..MLPS hardly moving on the index up about .20. I'm not sure whats driving the action as DCP Midstream (DPM) is down 1 and change but on not much volume. Maybe its tax loss selling by somebody. Holly Partners (HEP) Transmontaigne (TLP) and Calumet (CLMT) are down 50 cents or more. Teppco (TPP) Alliance Resource (ARLP) and Nustar (NSH) are losing smaller fractions.

Copano (CPNO) and Atlas Resource (ATN) are up just under 1 dollar apiece. Spectra (SEP) Atlas Holdings (AHD) and Energy Transfer Equity (ETE) are up fractionally as are Kinder Morgan Partners (KMP) and Martin Midstream (MMLP).

We'll look for a last hour push in the group. Meanwhile after today there are only 14 trading days left in 2007 for tax loss selling.

Sunday, December 09, 2007


That of course is the big question here. I spent the weekend searching MLP charts trying to find some hope. In the LP, GP universe i could only find 2 charts where the stocks were trading above the 200 day moving average. More on that later. The MLP index chart below continues to go nowhere.

The weekly chart also seems to be just treading water here but i think that so long as the market doesn't become unhinged we should get a nice rally in here very soon. What gives me some hope is that Kinder Morgan (KMP) which is one of the big boys if not "the" big boy in some people's eyes is actually trading above its 200 day moving average and its chart looks like its turning positive.
Also last week Hiland Holdings (HPGP) was up sharply after it put out 2008 guidiance that was suprisingly optimistic. It too is now above its 200 day moving average.
So on the fact that the group is about as negative as it can get and that yield spreads are at 4 year highs i think that this might be a good time to start building positions.
Linn Energy (LINE) is among the more devesated charts as we sit at 24 and yielding nearly 10% based on a pre-announced q1 distribution. This to me is one of 2 things..either a screaming buy or the market is telling us that the q1 distribution hike is not going to happen. So its a roulette wheel bet here. If everything is okay Linn heads back to 30 in a hurry..if they don't hike we will at best sit here or more than likely fall some more. Place your bets players!
This morning JP Morgan is starting Penn Virginia Resources (PVR) and Penn Virginia Holdings (PVG) at overweights for both of them. No other news this morning. Its all about the fed this week and they better do the right thing!

Friday, December 07, 2007


Last night's view from the Rainbow Room at the WNBC Christmas Party. Somebody needed to wash the windows on the 65th floor but the Empire State Building looks terrific.

And of course there is the famous Christmas Tree (yes it is still a Christmas Tree) which with the new politicallly and enviornmentally correct lights looks beautiful!

Which is better to look at the tree above or the chart below?

Another day where the dow was up nearly 200 points. So we've had almost 400 points in 2 days and we are 800 points above the lows in August and November and MLPS are no where. My God even financial and housing stocks have been going up. How bad is that?

Stargas Partners (SGU) which pays no distribution and is in the heating oil business posts earnings this morning. This one is planning to pay a distribution next year based on its reorganixation a few years ago. Not sure how this report puts that prospect. No other news and no upgrades or downgrades.

My horse Farleyshelonwheels runs today in the first race at Aqueduct. Trainer says he's been kicking down the barn door wanting to run. Not sure of the competition but we are ready. Morning line is 4-1. I'll be at the race track for the 12:30 pm post.

Thursday, December 06, 2007


Isn't it FABULOUS?

Excuse my frustration but its hard to hide on a day when the dow was up nearly 200 pts and your stocks go nowhere. I think this may be a good time to remind ourselves that this is about aversion to any kind of credit risk. So as long as the credit markets aren't working no money will be working its way into MLPS and continue to find its way out. The good news is that this irrational trading behavior leads to long term opportunities and with yield spreads at 3 year highs its just a matter of time before we have a sharp rally.

Williams successfully priced its offering of nearly 10 million shares so that's done. Also insiders are stepping up and buying Atlas Holdings (AHD) and DCP Midstream (DPM). Open market purchases are bullish. No news this morning and no upgrades or downgrades. Crude is down, nat gas is up, stock futures lower but not by much.

Here comes the open!

Wednesday, December 05, 2007

Fixing broken link from yesterday to VERY SMART INVESTING. This blog belongs to one of my blog's regular readers. Please visit and enjoy.
I know 200 points on the dow ain't what it used to be but its disheartening to see it up that much and the MLP index is holding on to a paltry half a point gain. Still a plus sign is a plus sign and a few days ago the buyers didn't show up until the afternoon and the index played catch up. We'll see.

Meanwhile Williams (WPZ) Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) and Boardwalk (BWP) are the biggest drags down major fractions. Genesis Partners (GEL) is the biggest winner up 1 even though they are increasing their stock offering by 1 million shares. Oneok (OKS) is also a 1 point winner.

Index just slipped under 297. If i had to bet it closes lower.
A little reverse psychology here. MLPS opened higher and are pulling back as measured by the index. My guess is we'll be down here before to long. Here's to hoping i'm wrong.


Since we can't seem to get joy out of the MLP chart i figured i's put up some Christmas lights this morning and brighten things up because we sure as hell can't seem to get it from this group right now. I haven't seen any filings but the tape yesterday had a feel of someone unwinding a big position which began around 10:45 and carried through until about lunchtime. Then the group got the rug pulled out from under it in the last 30 minutes and we closed right near the low of the day. So let's start a new day here. Genesis LP priced a large stock offering of 8 million shares. They upped it from 7 million. Its interesting that a few of these companies have increased their share offerings in here even though prices are well off their highs. Buckeye (BPL) did it last week. Williams (WPZ) is in the process of doing a nearly 10 million share offering. We'll see if they will be raising shares.

Citigroup is upping Teekay LNG Partners (TGP) from hold to buy. Nothing else on the news front this morning. Stock futures are nicely higher and we should see a rally going into next week's fed meeting. Oil futures are higher on no OPEC cut.

Tuesday, December 04, 2007

Rally off the lows continues albeit slowly. Kinder Morgan (KMP) took a drop at 11am and has now gotten all of it back and has moved higher on the day. Other MLPS are off the mat but still down for the count.
Down 2.20 and off the lows as we have rallied back about 1/2 on the days range in the index. I wonder if someone did some unwinding of a position this morning becuase it sure felt that way on the tape. We did not completely fall apart and 295 continues to hold.
MLPS in relative free fall here with the index down 3 points. Williams (WPZ)Martin Midstream(MMLP) Altas Energy Resources (ATN) Calumet (CLMT) Linn Energy (LINE) Breitburn (BBEP) and General Marine (GMR) all down 1 point or more. Long list of fractional losers.

Very few winners at lunchtime. Inergy Holdings (NRGP) is up 1.55 and Holly Partners (HEP) is up a small fraction. Legacy (LGCY) is up a few pennies along with Boardwalk (BWP) and Natural Resource Partners (NRP).

Ugly day and getting uglier but we are holding above 295.
One of the most humbling things about trading is that sometimes when you discover a trend its often at the end of that trend. And i posted the last observation about MLPS opening near their lows and seeing buyers coming in just at the point that the buying ended and now the index is down nearly 2 points and near the lows of the day at 297. Isn't it fabulous?

Linn Energy (LINE) and Williams (WPZ) are down 1 point apiece. Lots of fractional losers. Meanwhile not many winners with Alliance Holdings (AHGP) up 75 cents as the biggest winner.

Oil down 1.43 and under 88 bucks now.
One noticible change in the way MLPS are trading is that we seem to be opening near the lows of the day and then buyers step in. It happened yesterday and its happening again today. Good sign technically.

Which is nothing to sneeze at after the last few weeks of what seemed liked endless selling.

So do we have a triple bottom here on the charts? Well we always know those things in retrospect but at least some of the short term inidcators like rsi and the stocastics have turned positive. The first challenge is to get above those moving averages including the 200 day moving average which is above 305. We still have the headwinds of supply and it did not help that Williams Partners (WPZ) announced an offering of 9 million shares last night. But each day we are one day closer to year end and each day the headwinds are getting closer to being discounted.

Wachovia this morning starts Sunoco Logistics(SXL) at market perform. No other news on the wire and no upgrades or downgrades. We have a filing at Hiland Holdings (HPGP) which shows one insider adding to his already large 10% stake with another open market purchase.

No other corporate developements this morning. Crude oil is down but off the lows this morning but natural gas is up a few ticks. Stock futures are lower as we head into the open. 10 year rates remain under 4%

BTW for those of you into charts and technicals here is a link to Barchart with some stats regarding the MLP index just to put things into perspective. Also Factiods has his November MLP summary up on his web site so take a look. Also one of this blogs regular readers has started his own blog so please visit and look around. Its always good to share ideas.

Monday, December 03, 2007

MLPS are behaving well overall today with the index which was down nearly 1 point has turned higher and is now up .75 and its closing in on the 300 level. Still there are some one point plus losers like Linn Energy (LINE) E V Partners (EVEP)Copano (CPNO) and Breitburn (BBEP) but lately losses do get cut in the last hour or so. Buckeye (BPL) Enbridge Energy Partners (EEP) and Kinder Morgan Partners (KMP) are showing nice fractional gains and they are big components of the MLP index.

Action is looking bullish as we are seeing follow through to Friday's nice gain.

December begins and i guess it would be logical to assume that the recent factors putting pressure on the group will continue for a while longer. Tax loss selling probably will be a feature for the next few weeks. But there is light at the end of the tunnel and i suspect Citigroups call for a January reflex rally of 5% or more looks like a good possibility once all this short term bullshit comes off.

This morning we are lower by 1 point on the index.Hiland Holdings (HPGP), Williams (WPZ), and Alliance Resource (ARLP) are fractional winners. Brietburn (BBEP) and Markwest Hydrocarbon are 1 point plus losers and lead the way lower.

No news and no upgrades or downgrades. Oil and natural gas continue to sell off sharply. Stocks are a little lower.

Friday, November 30, 2007

MLP index approaching 299 and up nearly 4 points as we head into the last hour. K-Sea (KSP) is up 2. Copano (CPNO) and Williams (WPZ) are up nearly 2 points each. Targa Resources (NGLS) is a 1 point winner and so is Energy Transfer Partners (ETP).

Penn Virginia Holdings (PVG) is down 1.50 as the biggest loser. Most mlps that were lower earlier are off their lows.
Closing in on a 4 point gain here on the MLP index...hey we could take it over 300 if the last hour is firm! One of our posters has it exactly right. Money is flowing into t-bills. There is an absolute aversion to any risk. MLPS are priced like junk right now. Any signs of credit market stability will bring money back into this group.
MLPS extending gains here up 2.30 on the MLP index and back over 297. Oneok LP (OKS) is up 1 with a lengthening list of MLPS showing nice fractional gains. Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) and Energy Transfer Equity (ETE) are both strong up 75 cents to 1 dollar.

Holly Partners (HEP) is down 1, no news there.

Mlp index as i type is up nearly 2.50. End of month nonsense? Short covering? Who cares! Linn is approaching 27. All must be right with the world.
Well here is a switch. Usually by now MLPS would be selling off and heading into negative territory. Instead today we are seeing MLPS climbing and at the highs of the day; up 1.38! Some of yesterday's bigger losers are up. Buckeye (BPL) and Williams (WPZ) both up one point each. Hiland (HLND) and Markwest (MWP) are the biggest losers down major fractions.

Is it possible we are going to have a good day?

As if we didn't have enough supply coming on line already Buckeye Partners (BPL) is increasing its stock offering which explains the 3 dollar drop. Also Kinder Morgan Partners (KMP) is trading like a secondary is coming although i do not see a news release yet. Atlas Pipeline Partners (APL) has 27.5 million shares from priviate equity placements that become available for sale which may put some pressure on prices although it is not dilutive. Bottom line is more shares competing for dollars in the MLP space. However some MLPS seem to be moving away from their recent lows. Linn Energy (LINE) is back over 26 after seeing 23 and change last week. EV Partners (EVEP) which dropped to 30 and change Monday jumped nearly 3 points yesterday. Looks like the pressure has shifted to the big boys in the group and while we will probably be under pressure until year end with all the tax games being played eventually all of this will get discounted.

Its also no accident that MLPS have been in the toilet since late July and continues to remain near its August lows while the credit crisis has by most measures has moved back to its August peak. In fact last night on Kudlow and Company, Larry was showing charts of the TED spread and LIBOR and the commercial paper markets. As all those charts have returned to the August depths of the credit crunch, its no accident that the MLP index is reflecting the same thing. So i think that MLPS won't start moving higher until the banking system starts repairing itself. Perhaps this next rate cut will finally jump start all this. The dollar has been rallying on the back of the fed comments. Wayne Angel, former fed big cheese, made a point last night that rate cuts will help the dollar because the state of the markets now is preventing normal business from moving from point a to point b. He argued the dollar is rising because the fed has signaled that it will do what it has to do to repair the banking system. All food for thought here as we watch stocks rally while MLP's generally languish.

Stock futures are sharply higher this morning on Bernake last night indicating more cuts are coming and Oil futures are down 2 dollars this morning and under 90 bucks. Its an early morning post so no headlines so far.

Thursday, November 29, 2007

The MLP index closed down about 2 points near 295 but that move was distorted by Kinder Morgan (KMP) being down 1. Oneok LP (OKS) was down 1. Enbridge Energy Partners (EEP) was down nearly 2 and Buckeye Partners (BPL) was down 3. All these stocks are large components of the MLP index. Meanwhile a fair amount of MLPS closed higher and there were some nice moves. E V Partners (EVEP) which traded as low as 30.76 yesterday closed at 34.74 up nearly 3 points. Williams (WPZ) and Martin Midstream (MMLP) were both up 1 point. Fractional winners include Linn Energy (LINE) which is back over 26, Breitburn (BBEP) Constellation (CEP), Plains All American (PAA) and Copano (CPNO).

The action is still a bit discouraging overall but they seem to be coming off the relentless selling that some of these have endured lately. There is a sense that Oil may have toppped out after climbing to 95 this morning and selling off and closing down near 91. BTW Citigroup upped General Marine (GMR) to hold from a sell this morning.

That is the big story this morning as a pipeline in Minnesota that carries about 1/5th of the US oil from Canada blew up last night. It appears that this is the type of thing that will be repaired relatively quickly but the market is in shoot first ask questions later and has driven prices up 4 dollars in overnight markets. Not that these things ever happen at a good time but Enbridge holders just had their first distribution boost since the fall of Rome.

Meanwhile in a case of really good (or bad) timing Enbridge (EEP) announced a stock offering yesterday which sent the stock down in after hours by 2.48 to 50.94.

This could be one of those short term opportunities to pick up some cheap shares on a trade particularly if they throw them out the window this morning.

Meanwhile it wasn't until 2pm yesterday when MLPS where actually still down by 1 point on the index that prices turned around and we had an up close by 1 point (amazing!). There might be some catch up action at the open this morning but considering that nothing much has changed here in terms of the fundamentals...i.e. equity supply coming to market among other things, i remain skeptical on any rally. But the dow industrial chart below looks like we put in a short term bottom and we could work our way back to the top of the trading range which at least puts some support under prices.

Just a leftover news item from last night as Buckeye Partners (BPL) is sending 1.5 million shares to market in an offering. More supply kids.

Its an early post and there are no other corporate headlines so far this morning and no upgrades or downgrades but i will post headlines as they break.

Wednesday, November 28, 2007

At 2pm when the market was up 300 and MLPS were down and the index was at 294.93 i was pissed. But there must have been something in the "beige book" because it was at that point that MLPS turned around and began to rally. The index is now up 1 point and change and at the highs of the day! Hiland (HLND) and Atlas Resources (ATN) are each up between 1.50 and 2 dollars and are today's leaders. A number of MLPS which were lower earlier have either pulled even or are now higher.
Record earnings posted this morning for Inergy LP (NRGY,NRGP) which lately has done nothing to move MLPS, but maybe today will be different as we have firm markets and fed speak that is pointing to an interest rate cut on December 11th. Stock futures are sharply higher and even the dollar is rallying today so maybe..just maybe MLPS will move up with everything else today.
Genesis LP (GEL) is doing a stock offering of 7 million shares which only adds to the equity supply issue for MLPS. This news was out last night. No other news this morning. K-Sea (KSP) is getting a buy nod from Citigroup this morning.
Stock futures up 15 points and near the highs of the morning and the yen is approaching 110. Lets hope we get a kick in the ass this morning.

Tuesday, November 27, 2007

Sorry about the morning post. It took me hours to find an error that kept me from posting. That's why its out of order.
Bit of an odd day for MLPS today in that the index is down by just under 1 point. Its being dragged by a 50 cent loss in Enterprise Products Partners (EPD) which has a huge weighting in the index. That is being off set by the second biggest weight in the index; Kinder Morgan Partners (KMP) which is up 1.50 as Raaymond James upgrades the stock to an outperform. Buckeye Partners (BPL) Nustar Holdings (NSH) Sunoco Logistics (SXL) and Penn Virginia Holdings (PVG) are all down 1 point or more. Much of the group is showing fractional losses. So here we sit with the dow up over 200 points and even the bank stocks are up today...and MLPS can't get out of their own way.

A couple of things going on of note. One is the clear fact that we are following the market lower. Its hard to make any kind of headway when everything is imploding around you. If you are standing on the edge of a growing sinkhole eventually as that hole spreads it becomes very hard to keep from falling in. Pulling in the other direction is the yield spread to the 10 year which is getting close to 300 basis points which is on the extreme end of undervaluation. Insiders continue to add shares with open market purchases. Regency Partners (RGNC) joins that parade last night with this filing and this one and this one. Support just below at 290 on the MLP index but with stronger stock futures this morning, at least we have a higher open to watch the sellers sell into!

No corporate news this morning and no upgrades or downgrades.

Monday, November 26, 2007

Say goodbye to Friday's gains. Senator Schumer sending bond yields to new lows...down to 3.80% on the 10 year as Countrywide is possibly put into bankruptcy play. Down 150 on the dow. Not pretty.

BTW 275 is where a new 52 week low sits for the mlp index. Some mlps are already there.
Well we have only had 3 up days this month and baring a miracle today won't be 4. In fact the MLP index is sinking to the lows of the day and if the market implodes in the last hour we might even take out all of Friday's gain. Add Atlas Holdings (AHD) and Buckeye (BPL) to the 1 point losers list. All this while the 10 year rate implodes to 3.87%. So the bond market appears to be discounting the end of the world.
US Shipping(USS) holders getting some upside today on news that the distribution is not going to be cut. Stock is up over 2 dollars and is back over 11 bucks. Holly Partners (HEP) and Linn Energy (LINE) are both up major fractions. MLPS as a whole are a little lower with the index down .70 and off its low of the day. Willams (WPZ) Nustar (NSH) Hiland Holdings (HPGP) and Copano (CPNO) are down 1 point each among the biggest losers.

10 year is down to 3.93% which widens the MLP spread to over 260 points...the highest since December 2005.
We have a headline for US Shipping which has announced that it will pay its full distribution next quarter and if it has to it will suspend payment to the GP in order to meet its minimum distribution. Stock could be up sharply this morning.

Sure hope everyone's Thanksgiving Holiday was a good one. But now the long weekend is over and its back to work today. MLPS had a rare up day on Friday in the overall market low volume bounce. Still it was a 2 point up move on the index which has not had an up day of more than a tiny fraction in the last 3 weeks.

Shooting for a triple bottom in here and we remain grossly oversold so a snapback rally is in order. Whether its anything more than that depends on that dow chart below.

Last week we completed the second 10% correction in the last 6 months. So we are grossly oversold here as well. Stock futures are stronger this morning but off the highs.

Meanwhile we enter December which means tax loss selling along with more mlp supply so we do have obstacles out there. No news drivers this morning on the corporate side and no upgrades or downgrades on the board.

So lets bring on the open.

Friday, November 23, 2007

The day after. No news and no upgrades or downgrades in MLP land so take the day off and enjoy your self. Shop. Play. Take a nap. See you on Monday.

Wednesday, November 21, 2007

Market well off the lows as we try to rally em back before the close. The MLP index dropped to 295 and its off its lows as well. I don't know if my heart can bear it but there is a chance that Constellation Energy (CEP) which has been down 13 days in a row and Linn Energy (LINE) which has been selling off forever...could both finish up on the day as they are both down but small fractions!
I suppose we should just be thankful that the selling has to end today at the close because the market is closed tomorrow and Friday is a semi-holiday. An ugly morning with everything looking pretty hideous in stocks. MLPS will just get sold with everything else. But i will say that a hard down open is preferable then another one of those days where we sell hard into the close. Hard down opens have a chance of being a selling climax.
No news and no upgrades or downgrades this morning. Holly Partners(HEP) had news last night (see last night's post) which could be supportive but these days nothing works.
Blogging will be short today as we get ready for Thanksgiving.

Tuesday, November 20, 2007

Another down day in MLP land but we did finish off the lows again. We're down 12 of the last 14 days including 5 in a row. The selling appears to be exhausting itself and the chart looks like its making a triple bottom with another higher low. But given all the blowups out there i am very cautious about the concept of a bottom. Still we are due a nice up day at some point. God knows when that will be considering every higher open is met with more sellers.

Constellation Energy (CEP) meanwhile is now down for the 12th consecutive day and 14 of the last 15.

This stock is making its 3rd trip down to 31 in the last 5 months. If any MLP is due a bounce this one is...but again i hesitate given the current market conditions.

News after the close as Holly Partners (HEP) is getting assets from Holly Corp (HOC) at a price but they are immediately accretive to cash flow.

This has certainly been a very frustrating time for us since the July top. And you certainly have to feel bad for US Shipping (USS) holders who have seen their shares cut but nearly 60%. The stock dropped another 1.06 to 8.98 today and the yield is a whopping 17% which means to me that a 50% distribution cut is being priced into the stock. It is priced like an in the money call at this point but i think betting on this one is a pure speculative play at best. If you think these things can't go lower ask Stargas Holders (SGU) which saw their units go from 20 to a buck a few years ago and their distribution go to zero. No fun there as the units are at 3.79 today. You can be waiting a long time to get back to the flat line.

Linn Energy (LINE)is yielding 9% and has a going foward yield of 10.3% as share supply is hurting the stock and the feeling that the distribution hike to 2.52 next quarter ain't happening. I'm long this one so i guess we can just sit and wait to see how this plays out.

On the other hand with distributions most of us should be up for the year. Maybe once we get through tax loss selling in December we can have a nice January recovery rally. Hope always springs eternal. More fed eases are coming especially after the fannie and freddy disasters today. Yield spreads on the 10 year have gone from 85 basis points to 250 basis points which is the highest spread since December 2005 which was a bottom for MLPS. Lots to ponder in the days ahead.

But tomorrow is another day. Thursday is Thanksgiving. Friday is a semi-holiday so lets remember that we have much to be thankful for in our lives!
When the tape is like this you get the feeling that we'll never have another up close ever again.
Dow well off its high up only 15 points..MLPS have gone negative. ugh!

Sorry for the late morning post but not much happening today and getting ready for Thanksgiving. Noticing Constellation Energy (CEP) is going for its 11th straight down day. Inergy Holdings (NRGP) and Markwest (MWE) both down a point each leading the losers list. Meanwhile E V Partners (EVEP) and Natural Resource (NRP) both up a point each as they lead the winners list.

Got stuff to do so i will post when i can later today.

Monday, November 19, 2007

Down 1.37 on the mlp index...selling just continues. Lehman reiterates its outperform on Linn Energy and then apparently goes on about how negative things why re-iterate the outperform???? (thanks to Bruce in the comment section for details.) Makes no sense to me! Constellation (CEP) working on 11 down days in a row as its off 1 and change again. E V Partners (EVEP) is actually down by a nickle inspite of the asset purchase and the pre-announced distribution increase.

Factoiods website is on the blog roll to the side...or click here!. I forgot to re-link on this morning's post.
Magical question first. I spent some time this weekend...okay a lot of time this weekend on Factiod's website. It is a wealth of information on MLPS and no reader of this blog should do anything without looking there first. If you have questions about everything from DCF to CAGR you have to go there. If you don't know what dcf is you have to go there. Anyway i did notice that the MLP vs 10 year yield spread is now up to 250 which is where it was back in December 2005 which came after 6 months of declines and led to a nice rally in the beginning of 2006.

We have only seen 2 miniscule up days this month and the MLP index is down almost 5% since November 1st. The point spread angle tells me that we are getting close. But holding 290 is most important in my view.

Meanwhile they finally got around to selling down EV Partners last week and this morning some good news as they are buying some nat gas properties in West Virginia and they are pre-announcing a distribution boost to 2.40 annual. So that puts the going foward yield at a generous 7.5% based on a 32 dollar stock price. In the past going foward yields like this have been good entry points. But as we have seen with Linn Energy (LINE) that doesn't mean they can take the going foward yield to 10% if they want to.
No upgrades or downgrades so far. Oil is up a dollar this morning, natural gas is up about 2 cents. Stock futures are down this morning but not by too much. This is a holiday week which is usually bulllish for stock prices as a whole.

Friday, November 16, 2007

The list of one point plus losers just gets longer and longer...E V Partners (EVEP) is down 1.50 and under 32. Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP) and Alliance Resource Holdings (AHGP) both down over 1 point each. So is Sunoco Logistics (SXL) and Penn Virginia Holdings (PVG). The MLP index has broken below 298 and i think its time we face the fact that the index is going to 290. The overall market is now down 30 points on the dow and we are destined to break down below 13k and close at the weeks lows. Bear market continues.
Of course you don't really know if its a successful retest until after they have rallied away from their lows but some MLPS this week have come down to their August lows and are moving a way from those lows right now. Penn Virginia Holdings (PVG) is one of these as is DCP Midstream (DPM) is another. I am long both of these btw and have bought some more PVG. They never make it easy.
One thing i have noticed over the last week or 2 is that with the exception of Linn Energy (LINE) Calumet (CLMT) and a few others that have been doing offerings, a lot of these MLPS are down on relatively low volume. Now down is down no matter which way you look at it but it seems that buyers have just gone elsewhere or to just cash. When these buyers come back remains to be seen but they certainly won't come back if the overall market is shakey.

Constellation Energy (CEP) is down another 2 points and is down now for 10 days in a row. Crosstex Energy (XTEX) opened up 1 and is now down 1 and change and under 33. US Shipping is down 99 cents and is now sitting at just above 10 dollars. Market betting on a distribution cut here judging by the mega yield of 15%.

Legacy (LGCY) is up 60 cents among the group of winners which are showing small fractional gains.
Which has been the signature for awhile now. MLPS are a little lower but the overall market is now selling off although its nothing devestating. Early morning strength just keeps getting sold which is bearish. No news and no upgrades or downgrades. Posted some news and insider buys from last night...worth a read.

I'm going to take a break this morning. I will update later on.

Thursday, November 15, 2007

Some afterhours action today. First off both Markwest (MWE) and Markwest Hydrocarbon (MWP) were dollar plus winners today on news of a possible last minute bid from Targa Resources (NGLS). Still no specifics given. Also we have a slew of insider buys being reported with a 94,000 share purchase at Energy Transfer Equity (ETE). 2 directors made insider buys at Linn Energy. 5000 shares from one...and if i did the math right..4700 shares from the other.
Also a block insider purchase after the recent stock offering in Nustar (NS) plus another smaller purchase from a second insider.

Holly Partners and Plains All American are joining forces to build a pipeline in Utah. Holly upticked into the close..this could be the reason.

The MLP index did manage to rally off its lows to close down 89 ticks and finish just under 300. Still its another down close as we follow the market.
New lows on the day as we are under 299 on the index. Constellation (CEP) has come back to 33 from its lows down near 31.50. Not much volume in some of these sink holes we are seeing.

Dow down 110 as the Tuesday rally continues to unravel.
Figure i'd put up a chart of something that is actually working.

When your blog is getting ads for colonic irrigation you know things are bad! A tale of 2 extremes today. Constellation Energy Partners (CEP) is down 3 news and not a whole lot of volume. On the other side of this is Buckeye Holdings (BGH) which is up 1.79 on 81k news here either.

MLPS heading back to the lows of the day near 299 on the index. Overall market is down but the dow utility index is up. Commodities and oil are down. Frankly it looks to me stocks like Potash (POT), Terra Nitrogen (TNH), and some others look like they may have topped out.

More ugly charts! Constellation Partners (CEP) is now down 9 days in a row and below its August low. The MLP index is just as bad...having managed only 2 tiny up days out of the last 11. And it is becoming very demoralizing that we just continue to sink toward the August lows.Of course things are always at their ugliest before the turn but it is a real mess out there.
Both Markwests are up nicely today (MWP,MWE) as Targa Resources (NGLS) has proposed buying out both of them. Still no other details. Amerigas (APU) is down 1.50 on a Wachovia downgrade to market perform. Suburban Propane (SPH) is down 2.50 on earnings which the market apparently doesn't like.
The MLP index is off its low down 1 point at 299.50. Wake me up if their is a rally.

Short open post this morning. Someone posted the question about whether the MLP index is adjusted for distributions. Looks like it was this morning as the index is trading under yesterday's close but is listed as higher by my quote service. Maybe they do it on payout day all at once. I'll find out. Meanwhile an odd piece of news this morning as Targa Resources (NGLS) is offering to buy Markwest Energy (MWE) and Markwest Hydrocarbon (MWP) although no price was given and they said the company has not responded to them. Headlines on this one as they break.

I'll post again later this morning.

Wednesday, November 14, 2007

OMG...Linn Energy (LINE) is up.

Since it is ugly chart day...take a look at this catastrophy. Calumet Specialty Products (CLMT) is down 15 out of the last 16 days! The selling here has been unrelenting since the company posted earnings and a warning that high crude prices continue to have impact. Also on the way down the company did an offering of shares providing more supply which only hurt it even more. You are in a catching a falling knife zone here.

Many MLP distributions arrive in accounts today so enjoy your cash. MLPS opened higher on the index and as has been the case recently...sold off and is now off but by only a small fraction. Hiland LP (HLND) is up 1. Amerigas (APU) Penn Virginia Holdings (PVG) and Penn Virginia Resources (PVR) are all up major fractions.

Calumet (CLMT) is down another buch and a quarter. Buckeye Partners (BPL) is down 1 and is the biggest loser. Constellation (CEP) Encore (ENP) Nustar (NS) Plains All American (PAA) among others..fractional losers.

Regency Partners puts up earnings numbers this morning and Amerigas (APU) puts up record numbers and confirms guidance. PPI and retail sales market friendly. Stocks higher.

At least is seems that way. For example, about the best thing we can say about the Linn Energy (LINE) chart is that we just came down and filled a gap left open late last year. Otherwise its deeply oversold...which btw doesn't mean it can't get more oversold. We seem to be getting this one point plus down days which get relieved by rallies in the last half hour which bring it back about half to three quarters of the way back. Going foward yield is approaching 10% which means either the market feels the distribution hike is not going to happen or this is a buying opportunity. I tend to think that this is about supply. I noticed yesterday 2 blocks of shares crossed...100,000 and 50,000 around 2pm. So it seems we still have some big holders selling shares as restricted holders see their shares available for sale. At some point this has got to bottom and a snapback rally will come fast and furious. Just don't ask me when because frankly i have no idea.

Meanwhile we have the mlp index chart which is no bargain either. We were lucky enough to rally back to a very small up day. We just seem to be under pressure as company after company brings on a new supply of shares...Nustar being the latest as it priced its offering yesterday.

We're oversold here as well so a snapback rally is in order at some point but i continue to wonder whether we need to take a trip back down again to that 290 area to put in a triple bottom. But that means we have to sweat out a break of that level and i would rather not have to do that. I'm sure the market exists to accomodate me!

Earnigns news this morning from Eagle Rock which released at 4am! Also the company announces that its treating plant needs to go down for maintanence for about 3 weeks but that it should not have any impact on its proposed distribution increase next quarter. Also Targa Resources (NGLS) posted earnings this morning. Encore Partners (ENP) is getting an upgrade from UBS which takes it from neutral to buy.

Crude oil is rallying this morning after dropping down to near 90 bucks yesterday intraday. Stock futures have turned lower this morning as we wait for ppi at 8:30 which is expected to be a hot number. My initial impression of yesterdays 300 point dow rally is that it was a long overdue snapback rally. Follow through is required if this is not going to be a one day wonder. We'll know soon enough if the August lows need to be revisited and if they are...expect MLPS to do the same.

Tuesday, November 13, 2007

I am beginning to wonder whether we may have to go back to 290 and retest the lows or perhaps we may be setting up to break down below those levels. We're down 8 out of the last 9 days...we go down when the market is down...we go down when oil is up...we go down when oil is down...we go down when the market is up. There really aren't many combinations left. Yield spreads are getting stretched now in the other direction. We're down near 300 even and at the lows of the day.

Penn Virginia Resources (PVR) Holdings (HPGP) Nustar (NS) Sunoco Logistics (SXL) and Linn Energy (LINE) all down around 1 point or more. Alot of other minus signs as most mlps down fractions.

Not may winners...just a few fractional gainers like Martin Midstream (MMLP) Oneok LP (OKS) and EV Partners (EVEP). 300 still holding at this time but barely.

Getting very demoralizing out there.

The MLP index has at least diverged with the dow as we are still 12 points above the August lows. We're up at the open this morning along with everything else. But there is still the problem with supply. Nustar is doing an offering of shares so that puts pressure on that stock price which is down 1 dollar this morning. Merrill Lynch downgrades the stock to a sell from a hold...don't see sell ratings too often on stocks. Eagle Rock Partners (EROC) will be putting up earnings after the close today.

Inergy Holdings (NRGP) is up nearly 3 dollars this morning as today's big winner. Encore Partners (ENP) up 1 and change and so is EV Partners (EVEP) and Hiland (HLND). Calumet is down another 50 cents and K-SEA (KSP) down over a point as the biggest loser.

Monday, November 12, 2007

For you Linn Energy bulls and bears when it was all said and lost 42 cents....duh for both sides!
MLPS at the low of the day with the index just above 301. The tape looks and feels hideous. And while the focus of attention today has been on Linn Energy (LINE) there are other MLPS out there getting hit and some are getting close to their August lows. Still there are some winners out there. Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP) is up 1 news. Calumet (CLMT) and Penn Virginia Resources (PVG) continue to be the biggest losers down 1.25 or more.
MLPS are lower this afternoon. Linn Energy(LINE) is back to the lows of the day....down nearly 2 points. Calumet Specialty Products (CLMT) getting hit hard; down over 2 points. This one has been almost straight down since earnings and since it said that high oil prices are hurting results.
Atlas Resource (ATN) is down 1 as is Hiland (HLND)

Terra Nitrogen (TNH) is down 12 as it gets nailed along with anything commodity driven...the GP Terra (TRA) is down nearly 4.

Suburban Propane (SPH) is up over 1 point and leads a small list of winners. Buckeye Partners (BPL) Copano (CPNO) and DCP Midstream (DPM) are nice fractional winners.
Linn Energy (LINE) off the lows and down less than 1 now...MLPS have turned mixed to slightly higher.
Well clearly the Linn numbers are not being well recieved as the stock is down nearly 2 dollars; and it doesn't help that anything that is involved in commodities is getting its head handed to them today. MLPS are down .70 on the index as we struggle above 300. Eagle Rock (EROC) Nustar (NS), Teppco (TPP), Copano (CPNO) Penn Virginia Holdings (PVG) and Sunoco Logistics (SXL) among the few winners.

Encore Energy Partners (ENP) which is a relatively new issue is down 1 and change. Atlas Resource (ATN) Inergy Holdings (NRGP) among others losing fractions to a point.

Overall market trying to hold here...oil down 2.50 at this stage of the game.

We will get an answer shortly as to what Linn Energy's earnings mean when the market opens. Friday's earnings have brought on lots of discussion, ideas, and even some name calling as apparently i'm a simpleton. (And btw its WX-man...i am not a wax man! WX is short for weather). Well its only 100 shares but someone bought it 66 cents above Friday's close. Conference call for Linn is scheduled for 9am. Can't live blog it but if someone out there hears it and wants to post details and highlights of it please do by all means in the comments section.

Wachovia says its upgrading Copano (CPNO) to outperform from market perform which in this market may mean that it will be down less than everything else. Still and upgrade is an upgrade. Nothing else on the list this morning and no corporate headlines.

Crude is down 1.40 this morning on hints that supply may be coming from those saints known as OPEC. 10 year is sitting at 4.25. Stock futures are flat to a few ticks higher. So standby for the Linn verdict. By the way i did some rare sunday posts so you may want to scroll down.

Sunday, November 11, 2007


Lots of chatter about Linn Energy's earnings as to what the numbers mean. The initial reaction is to look at the earnings or lack there of and react negatively. But remember this is a MLP and the important number is DCF (distributable cash flow). Also some people are jumping on the hedging losses. These are marked to market numbers out to 2012. These are non cash charges! Say for example i own a stock and long term put to protect it. The stock price rises and the put declines but still has value. On paper i would say that the put is worth zero even though it actually has some value. When the put does expire i would have already written down the loss of the insurance and retain the asset which has appreciated in value. Or say the asset declines in value next year and the put appreciates i can exercise that put on the asset which gives me the higher price and then take the profit. That is why it is considered a non cash loss and has no impact on EBITDA, DCF, and everything else going foward.

I guess the bottom line is what happens tomorrow when the stock opens. Frankly if the numbers were really bad would they have re-iterated the 63 cent distribtution which is a 6 cent increase from this quarter? I don't think so. The stock is trading at an 8.4% yield and a going foward yield of 9.2%. or nearly 5 points above the 10 year rate. A price of 35 brings the yield down to 7.2% going foward and brings it more in line with companies that are growing distributions. The only thing negative in my view is that the overall market enviornment just sucks.

Btw i forgot to post about this but Devon Energy (DVN) in their earnings report last week announced that it will not be going foward with an MLP ipo of assets citing market conditions and the fact that it was no longer advantageous for them to do it. At least that means less stock supply coming on.

Saturday, November 10, 2007

Okay so my friend Dave calls me yesterday to let me know that my horse Farleyshelonwheels was running today at Aqueduct. I had no idea. He ran a great second today and we may be headed to my first stakes race in a couple of weeks. I play the pick 6 and hit 5 of 6. The one race i miss is the 8th race...and the name of the horse that won the 8th race....Dave! Sometimes heaven sends you a sign but you don't always see it. So instead of coming home with 20 grand and a taxable event...i come home with 54 dollars.

Friday, November 09, 2007

When the tape gets like this you want to just shut the tv off and walk away from the computer. At 302 and at the lows of the day down over 2 points. Nustar (NS) which was down nearly 2 yesterday down another 1 and change to day. Calumet Specialty Products (CLMT) has been in the dog house ever since they told us that the high price of oil was hurting their business. Its down 1 and change to just under 42 which brings it back to midway in its trading range this year ( 55-31). Plains All American (PAA) and Hiland Holdings (HPGP) are both down 1 point each. US Shipping (USS) is down another 75 cents after losing 6 points over the last 2 days.

Few winners like Eagle Rock (EROC) Atlas Pipeline Partners (APL) and one or 2 others showing gains of small fractions.

Friday afternoon..13018 the days low...we're 100 points above that right now. If i had to bet it would be for a close under 13K but i've been known to be wrong before.