When the tape gets like this you want to just shut the tv off and walk away from the computer. At 302 and at the lows of the day down over 2 points. Nustar (NS) which was down nearly 2 yesterday down another 1 and change to day. Calumet Specialty Products (CLMT) has been in the dog house ever since they told us that the high price of oil was hurting their business. Its down 1 and change to just under 42 which brings it back to midway in its trading range this year ( 55-31). Plains All American (PAA) and Hiland Holdings (HPGP) are both down 1 point each. US Shipping (USS) is down another 75 cents after losing 6 points over the last 2 days.
Few winners like Eagle Rock (EROC) Atlas Pipeline Partners (APL) and one or 2 others showing gains of small fractions.
Friday afternoon..13018 the days low...we're 100 points above that right now. If i had to bet it would be for a close under 13K but i've been known to be wrong before.
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10 comments:
line -- thoughts?
just snatched up 950 shares at 24.08 and 400 at 26.2
load the boat, back up the truck, grab grab grab
a misunderstood hedging strategy is killing the units, and meantime they just projected $300 million of dist. cash flow in '08
Have LINE's results come out yet?
Bruce
This sounds like a DISASTER to me. The shares are going to plummet on Monday.
LINN ENERGY LLC (LINE.O: Quote, Profile, Research):
* Third quarter oil, gas and natural gas liquid sales $75.1
million
* Third quarter loss per share $0.94/unit
* Third quarter loss on oil and gas derivatives $65.4 million
* Reuters Estimates third quarter earnings per share view
$0.31, revenue view $86.34 million
* Forecasts fourth quarter average daily production 195-205
mmcfe/d
coalhandluke on LINE posts says:
On Sept. 12th Smith Barney put a buy on the units with a $42 target based in part on EBITDA of $247.8 million for fiscal '07.
Today's numbers through 9 months = 171
Today's guidance Q4 = 95-105
Total EBITDA for fiscal '07 = $266 - $276. That's called guiding above expectations.
And did you see projected EBITDA for '08???????
Try $470,000,000 - $500,000,000 with distributable cash flow in the mid-point of $300,000,000.
This is a $40+ unit trading a significant discount. Load the truck up boys.
...and lestah, another seasoned and savvy longtime poster says:
On Sept. 12th Smith Barney put a buy on the units with a $42 target based in part on EBITDA of $247.8 million for fiscal '07.
Today's numbers through 9 months = 171
Today's guidance Q4 = 95-105
Total EBITDA for fiscal '07 = $266 - $276. That's called guiding above expectations.
And did you see projected EBITDA for '08???????
Try $470,000,000 - $500,000,000 with distributable cash flow in the mid-point of $300,000,000.
This is a $40+ unit trading a significant discount. Load the truck up boys.
Misquoted lestah...should have read as follows:
Yes, it looks like '07 ebitda is going to be well above expectations, and '08 ebitda growth looks outstanding!
According to my notes, Citi (Smith Barney?) dropped their price target to $40 on Oct. 22, saying that lower NG prices will mean lower cash flow. They remained long-term bullish on LINE.
I see that Q3 production was 35.5% oil and NG liquids, so LINE is not totally an NG producer. Not sure how much gain they are getting from $98 crude oil, due to their extensive hedging.
In any case, the painful unit price decline of the past six months looks completely unwarranted. Based on a Q4 distribution of $.63, we have a yield of 9.3% at the current unit price. Plus, we should see some good distribution increases in 2008. How long til we regain that 52-week high of $40.21?
The sales pitch is getting a bit heavy-handed, don't you think?
They missed the estimates, LOST money in the 3Q and their distributions exceed their profits.
Look, I'm long LINE, but let's not try to put lipstick on a pig.
anybody who says that distributions exceeds profits needs to perhaps ask his or herself whether he or she should be in MLPS in the first place. Its distributable cash flow that matters and the coverage ratio which the company says exceeds 1.2 times.
Also the hedging being marked down to a loss on paper has absolutely no impact on the numbers that matter.
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