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Friday, February 29, 2008

After today' sorry tape with the dow down over 300; mlps at least kept their losses to under 1 % on the index.Big cap mlps took bigger hits then the smaller ones. I think we'll just pack it in and have a good do the same!
Crosstex (XTEX,XTXI)blew away estimates of 4 cents...came in at 19 cents. Stocks are bid up in the pre market.

Regency (RGNC) also puts up earnings numbers this morning. Also some early trades in a few mlps which are unusual and don't always mean they will go in this direction. Constellation (CEP) is up 40 cents pre-open on one trade.

Crosstex Energy (XTEX) posted earnings numbers this morning which really look excellent. Of course the market will tell us later today but we have revenues up 50% and the distribution coverage is a very high 1.61. Of course the outlook is what is important and the conference call is later this morning.
Yesterday was an interesting day as the nat gas inventory numbers sent it soaring along with oil. That coupled with E O G Resources (EOG)boosting its outlook which sent it's stock up 20 points...and suddenly anything gas or energy took off...and that include us lowly mlp holders. Follow through today might be nice but we'll have to chew through what will be a negative open for the overall tape. BTW on Wednesday one of the big brokerages downgraded EOG...nice call for someone who should be unemployed.

Charts are inconclusive here. Its sort of day to day in the markets overall and as long as that is the case MLPS can attempt to make progress. But we need to break out of this base and that means a close over 310 on the index. We're far away from there.

BTW the unholy trinity has violated its rule 2 days in a row. Looks like there is hope out there. No upgrades or downgrades so far this morning. Headlines as they break.s

Thursday, February 28, 2008

MLP index is now above 296.
MLPS are moving sharply higher as anything energy...and especially anything natural gas is up sharply. Let me put it this way. The unholy trinity is up! Constellation Energy (CEP) Energy Transfer Equity (ETE) and Copano (CPNO) are up 1 and change. Oneok LP (OKS) and Crosstex (XTXI) are up nearly 1 point.Fractional gains pretty much across the board. Just a couple of MLPS are lower including Penn Virginia Holdings (PVG) which is down 67 cents for some reason and a few others are down pennies.

Looking for a strong last hour.
Linn at 23.65 x 23.75 in the pre market. Volume is 1900 shares.
BTW...ex items Linn earnigns were 37 cents which were 2 cents better than estimates.

What a disaster yesterday for Boardwalk Partners (BWP). You don't see moves like this very often but the stock was down over 3 points yesterday; reacting to this 10k filing which is citing cost overruns on its pipeline expansions, which may lead to more equity being issued, which means more dilution, which led to 2 downgrades, which resulted in the 3 point slicing. Lesson here is that there is no such thing as a risk free investment in MLP land. Now does it bounce a little in here or does this falling knife have more to go?

Speaking of falling knives Linn Energy (LINE) was one for such a long time but that stopped last week and the stock is up nearly 5 points of its low. Now we have earnings this morning whch when you strip through the headlines...actually look pretty decent. All the important numbers look good. We'll see if the market players see it the same way.

The other issue yesterday was the nearly 4 point decline in the MLP index but much of that was from the 2 stock offerings of Kinder Morgan Partners (KMP) and Enbridge Energy Partners (EEP) which was a big drag. Most mlps were flat to slightly lower. Still sitting above 290 on the index so that continues to provide the floor of this base which we have been building apparently since August. At least lets hope its a base and not a plank we're walking.

No other headlines this morning and nothing yet on the upgrade downgrade list.

Wednesday, February 27, 2008

Boardwalk Partners (BWP) is quite the horror show down 3 and change and below 25 as we head into the close.
The mlp index is down 3.50 and at the lows of the day but again the bulk of this move remains Kinder Morgan(KMP), Enbridge Energy Partners ( EEP), Enterprise Products (EPD), Partners, and Magellan (MMP). And of course Boardwalk remains down nearly 3 points on 2 downgrades and acknowledging that they are seeing cost overrruns on some of their projects. More MLPS are now lower vs higher but the moves are mostly fractional in nature.
It seems a bit overdone to me...and i never can figure out which upgrades and downgrades actually move the stock...but Morgan Keegan downgrades Boardwalk (BWP) to market perform from outperform. The stock is down 3 points here. Now my question is...since they were clearly wrong on the outperform..why should they be right now...and if market perform means it moves with the rest of the market...and it goes higher from here...doesn't it make it a buy in here?

The mlp index is all about Kinder Morgan (KMP) and Enbridge Energy Partners (EEP) and their stock offerings so the index is down over 2 points. Most MLPS are actually flat to higher right now.Penn Virginia Holdings (PVG) and Atlas Pipeline Partners (APL) are the biggest winners today up strong fractions.
News items from last night as Holly Partners(HEP) is getting assets from Holly Corp (HOC). It also tells us its impact from last week's fire and explosion at Big Spring. No new units being issued for the asset purchase which at least means no new supply.

The last one first...there has been a virus issue with this blog lately and it has to do with my ad supporter and one of the ad placements. I have removed it and it should no longer be an issue. I am sorry for any inconvienence.

Okay last night night we got news from Kinder Morgan(KMP) and Enbridge Energy(EEP) which are both doing unit offerings. Kinder Morgan stock price is near a 52 week high so its a good place for them to sell units. Enbridge (EEP) has been going sideways for years now so there is no change here.

Note that were it not for Kinder Morgan the MLP index chart would look far worse than it does.
The basing pattern continues but i would look for the index to be lower today. But this time it may not necessarily reflect what will be going on in the group thanks to those 2 heavyweights and the distortions the stock offerings will cause.

Brokerage houses have been coming out lately touting MLPS especially Raymond James who are usually good at making the right calls at the right times so i would pay attention to them when they upgrade or downgrade. The Williams (WPZ) call comes near its 52 week low and the stock has rallied finally. This morning we have Citigroup starting coverage at a hold (what ever that means since you have to buy it first before you could hold it...or it means you hold while i sell.) Lehman starts Williams at an overweight.

Finally the unholy trinity of Linn, Constellation, and Eagle Rock all closed higher yesterday which violates the theory that it is impossible for these 3 companies to trade higher together on any given day. If we can't depend on this theory than what can we depend on? Actually its nice to see Linn finally acting better after weeks of unrelenting selling. Now if only the other 2 issues here would bounce.

Tuesday, February 26, 2008

Kinder Morgan Partners (KMP) is considering an offering of $250 million in units. Also after the close Enbridge Energy Partners (EEP) will be offering shares as well. Both headlines after the close and both will give a knock to the MLP index first thing tomorrow morning.
The unholy trinity has been broken...all three of the cursed mlps closed up and thanks to a one cent up close on Eagle Rock (EROC)!

I may need therapy to come to terms with this!
The unholy trinity is in serious danger...someone sell down one of these now!

Linn Energy up 40 cents
Constellation up 26 cents
Eagle Rock up 1 cent

Could it be even concievable that they could all close up?
Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) is down 1 and some change and is the biggest drag on the MLP index which is up 30 cents right now. Most MLPS remain higher however.
Nice up day unless you hold what i hold where once again i'm going nowhere fast. Atlas Energy Resources (ATN) remains on fire and is up another 1.45. Its been soaring ever since it announced its gas discovery. Markwest (MWE) is up 1 and change as well. Wachovia raised the stock to outperform.Raymond James ups Hiland Holdings (HPGP) to a strong buy from buy and the stock is up 70 cents. Williams Partners (WPZ) which was left for dead is up another point. Raymond James made this one a strong buy yesterday. And when Ray Jimmy's talks...people listen.

The mlp index is up a little over 1 point and its being dragged by some of the bigger cap mlps like Kinder Morgan (KMP)and Nustar (NS)which are down small fractions today.

Linn Energy (LINE) is up 4 points off its low. The unholy trinity is in jeopardy today as Constellation (CEP) and Eagle Rock(EROC) are up a few pennies. E V Partners (EVEP) is down and has not moved as volume has picked up lately....could be PIPE (priviate equity) pressure. Today is the last day of trading for February settlement...if that is important to any of these hedge funds.
RBC Capital Markets is keeping Hiland (HLND) at sector perform but it is raising its target price to 60 dollars from 56.
Apparently Merrill Lynch is upgrading Linn Energy (LINE) to buy according to a post on the yahoo board. I'm waiting for confirmation.

Not sure what the reason is but it is unusual to see action in the pre-market in MLPS unless something going on. Last trade at 23. Earnings due out tomorrow. There was a post on the yahoo message board that the company may announce a distribution increase tomorrow when earnings come out. We'll see if that has any merit. Chart looks dismal but we could rally back to 25 where the moving average resistence sits.

The MLP index is also fighting moving average resistence as that long base gets longer and longer.

Earnings this morning from new issue El Paso Partners (EPB) which are the first numbers by this recent IPO. Elsewhere Hiland Partners gets a mention from Lehman Brothers leaving it at an outperform but lowering its target price. I think this got leaked out yesterday based on the stocks action where it was down nearly 2 and then it rallied late in the day. Stock futures took a small hit this morning with the PPI number though i wonder whether that will be relevant later this morning. Market looks like it wants to extend the rally from yesterday.

Monday, February 25, 2008

Raymond James upgrades Williams to Strong Buy from outperform. Also Lehman passed some positive notes on the stock today. It was up 1.48 today. Not much happening in after hours.
Linn Energy (LINE) is up to 22.56 and is up 79 cents! The recovery continues! Constellation Partners (CEP) is on its way to a rate of 10 to 15 cents a day. The unholy trinity lives. Williams (WPZ) Boardwalk (BWP) and Crosstex (XTXI) up 1 a and change. The MLP index closes up nearly 3 points and near the high of the day.
Up nearly 3 points on the MLP index. Kinder Morgan (KMP) is up 1 and at a 52 week high. Crosstex Energy (XTXI) is up over 1 point as well.

Just about everything in the group is higher today except for the ones i own. Holly Partners (HEP) Constellation Partners ( thats anything new). EV Partners (EVEP) and of course i have the distinction of holding the biggest loser in Hiland Holdings (HLND) which is down 1.75 on no news.

Linn and Eagle Rock are up and Constellation down so that unholy trinity remains in tact. Linn looking like the worst of the pipe selling is over but i don't want to shout to loudly.

Quiet Monday morning here for the most part. We have some news for Regency Partners (RGNC) which is buying Nexus Gas. Its a small purchase but it is immediately accretive according to the press release. And we have Citigroup upgrading Semgroup (SGLP) to buy from hold. Other than these 2 items it is one of those watching paint dry mornings.

MLPS staged a reversal Friday ahead of the rest of the market. The index was down 2 points and under 290 and closed up 1.50 points to 292.55. I don't want to read too much into this yet but at least Linn Energy (LINE) was up last week and back near 22; which is alot better than an 18 handle. That 290 level continues to be the baseline support as we continue to construct some sort of bottom.

Energy is up this morning with the focus again on natural gas which was up sharply but has pulled back off the highs. Stock futures are flat as its all about AMBAK and if and when we'll see a rescue.

Friday, February 22, 2008

Gaspirino rally on CNBC as market rallies on Ambac news of a bailout. Dow up..MLPS moving up strongly...up nearly 1.50.
Oh gasp! MLPS near their highs of the day at 292.13!
MLP index has turned higher against the rest of the market. Actually the sell off today is weighted more in the dow stocks then anything else. Torture continues.
289-290 has held (again)...close to the flat line now.
Some lively discussion on some of the comments which i of course encourage but listen kids..keep it civil please and no name calling.

Back under 290 as MLPS sell off with everything else down 2 points on the index. Outside of Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP) which is down 1 just about everything else among the big caps is down about 25 to 50 cents. Linn Energy (LINE) is up a few pennies. But the rest of the unholy trinity (CEP and EROC) are down.

Selloff in the market is coming on very light volume which might explain why mlps seem to be falling in a sink hole. More an absence of bids then genuine wholesale dumping. I suppose this is encouraging....but the bear continues to growl along.
let me know if anyone is getting a virus upon loading the page. Some issues this morning with my ads. i will try and solve it.

Earnings posted by TC Pipelines (TCLP) this morning and it was a good year.
Wachovia is upgrading DCP Midstream (DPM) to outperform from marketperform...which means that if mlps go down...this one goes down less...therefore it outperforms!!! Amazing how that works.

Back from a couple days of rest and internet free life in the Pennsylvania mountains where the temperatures never saw 30 and we had some snow on the ground. I wasn't totally cut off from reality but nothing much as changed in MLP land in the broad context as the index continues to move sideways. Yesterday we saw a 4 point plunge as the biggest of the big boys went down hard.

Meanwhile some good news for Atlas Energy Resource holders (ATN) as they hit a gas gusher and they posted earnigns. Stock soared 3 points yesterday and is back over 30 bucks.

And while i was gone the unholy trinity of CEP,EROC,and LINE remains in tact as the phyiscal law which states that all three MLPS can not be up together on the same day goes unviolated. But the MLP that won't be named is up nicely for 3 days in a row and now sits near 22; which is a lot better than last week's 18 handle.
It could be that private equity sellers (PIPE) are done for the most part and that those who shorted shares along the way ahead of the stock registrations are now covering short positions. I suppose we could go as high as 25 on the chart where the last top is. Now we need to build some sort of a base.

Energy is up this morning, stock futures are flat. Nothing on the upgrade downgrade list.

Thursday, February 21, 2008

Just got back from PA. I am playing catch up right now so i will get it all together and post in the morning. Glad to see a rebound in the stock that shall not be named.

Tuesday, February 19, 2008

Have time for a pre-opening post here before hitting the road (late). Holly Partners (HEP) downgraded by Morgan Stanley (MS) to underperform. So the trip down from 55 was marketperform. I love some of this wall street bullshit. Also the stock that shall not be named is laughably higher in the pre-market on some relatively active premarket trading. An illusion. RBC raised its price target on Plains All American (PAA) by a dollar to 59 bucks. Buckeye (BPL) and Magellan Midstream (MMP) are going to share an ethanol pipeline. Is there anything more romantic than sharing gas? The entire energy complex is soaring this morning with oil up nearly 3 bucks and nat gas approaching 9 dollars. Stock futures sharply higher. If you want my opinion i still think that Northern Rock being nationalized started the ball rolling. Maybe the light at the end of the credit market tunnel is not an oncoming train.

Monday, February 18, 2008

Or something similar. Off this week...I will try and post when i can but it will depend on the mountains and signal access.
S&P Futures up 17 points in electronic trading.
Monday morning on a holiday weekend. No trading today but we do have the rest of the world doing its thing. Big rally in England on the FTSE up over 100 pts as the Northern Rock Banking problem is solved with a government takeover. I mention this because the removal of uncertainty is so important to the market and maybe the only way we can see an MLP rally of substance. MLPS are dead money at best as long as the credit markets remain in turmoil...plain and simple. Yields are at ridiculous levels but they are consistent with whats going on with other issues that function as bonds or bond proxies. Fix that and we can finally get a big move in these things. S&P futures up 5 points in overseas electronic trading.

Coal MLPS took big hits Friday thanks to Goldman Sachs downgrading all things coal. That explains big drops in Natural Resource (NRP) Alliance Resource (ARLP) and Penn Virginia Holdings (PVG) even though those stocks were not mentioned by Goldman. Could be an opportunity here if Goldman is wrong on coal.

Anyway some Monday morning musings on a day of no trading. I will be away on some mountaintop in Pennsylvania this week where i'm am not sure what kind of internet access i will have. I will post if i can otherwise I will be out of commission until Friday. I will post tomorrow morning before the open.

Friday, February 15, 2008


We didn't rally much earlier in the week when the market rose...and we didn't really fall much as the market sold off yesterday so we've gone nowhere in the broad index.

But of course that is not necessarily true with the stocks that will go unnamed as they made new lows or are near new lows or went down 12 days in a row (streak broken yesterday by that unmentionable as it was up....brace yourself...a nickle!).

No news and no upgrades or downgrades. Hedgefunds and others have been filing their 13g's so we know what they hold. What they will sell from here on in is the mystery question. Stock futures are weak and getting weaker. No news and no upgrades or downgrades.

I'm college shopping today with daughter #2. So blogging will be light today. I'll post a summary later today when i get back.

Thursday, February 14, 2008


The stock that won't be named (and i'm not talking about google) has traded 3 million shares today. If these are shares coming out of lock-up they seem to be getting absorbed rather well with the stock down just 30 cents. Of course its all relative.

Like watching paint dry this afternoon.
A watching paint dry day with the mlp index off about a quarter..the overall market down a little less than 100 pts on the dow in some orderly profit taking. The usual suspects are down again (we know who they are in spite of million share blocks or the fact that one is shooting for 13 down days in a row. They will go unmentioned).

Coal MLPS continue higher. Natural Resource (NRP) and Alliance (ARLP) up major fractions. Penn Virginia Resources (PVA) and Penn Virginia Holdings (PVG) are down a touch on earnings. Holly Partners (HEP) is today's biggest winner up 90 cents.

Just a note..i will be up in the mountains next week on vacation and while i will attempt to blog i'm not sure what kind of internet satellite reception i will get.

Its never fun when everything else goes up and MLPS go down which was the case yesterday. Kinder Morgan Partners (KMP) sold off by over a point yesterday dragging the index down by 1 point and change. Lehman had raised its target price on Kinder Morgan and i've noticed over time that Lehman positive moves usually cause a short term opposite effect on the stocks. I don't know why that is the case but it happens often this sort of by the rumour sell the fact. Back to MLPS maybe we'll see some catch up today as long as there are no negative catylists out there. God knows they are always lurking.

After hours action yesterday produced a 1 million share block of Linn Energy (LINE) crossing and another block of several hundred thousand. There were 15 and 20 thousand share blocks crossing all day long. Finally a sign of a bottom? One can always hope. We also had earnings yesterday from Penn Virginia Resources which shows record distribuable cash flow. Penn Virginia Holding (PVG) also put up its numbers.

Boardwalk Partners (BWP) earnings did not impress apparently as Morgan Stanley follows RBC and downgrades the stock to market perform from outperform. Nothing much else going on this morning. Stock futures and energy futures are firm.

Wednesday, February 13, 2008

Constellation Partners (CEP) shooting for 13 down days in a row. Amazing! Line up a couple of cents..Eagle Rock (EROC) down a couple of cents. The unholy trinity lives. Praise!

Dow up 170...MLP index down 1.20 but a lot of that is Kinder Morgan (KMP) and Oneok (OKS). Pnen Virginia (PVR) up 1 and change along with all the other coal MLPS.
My God now Constellation (CEP) is up with Linn Energy (LINE). I'm seeking a therapist. No its back down again. Glory!

Kinder Morgan (KMP) is down over 1 point now and i just wonder with the stock price at a 52 week a stock offering coming?
Still in that parallel universe with Linn at 20.

Kinder Morgan (KMP) is dragging down the mlp index today with the stock proving it can go down every now and then. Its down 75 cents and under 58. The index itself is down 1 point. Semgroup Partners (SGLP) announced a secondary yesterday and the stock is getting a 1 point haircut. I noticed yesterday a filing by Tortoise Energy Infrastrature (TYG) on a number of MLPS. Holly Partners (HEP) had one of those filings and the stock is down 1 and change. Enbridge (EEP) Atlas Pipeline (APL) Teppco (TPP) and Buckeye (BPL) are all down fractions and dragging the index lower.

Natural Resource Partners (NRP) is up 50 cents and Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP) is up 1 and change. Atlas Resource (ATN) is up for a change as well. Coal doing well today effects the first 2. Not sure if ATN has any coal interests. I will check on that.
I must have awoken in a parallel universe. Linn Energy (LINE) is at 20 dollars. Hopefully its not a dream state.

That is where we're at with Constellation Energy Partners (CEP). This is what happens when you announce you are selling 1 billion in units and don't raise your distribution. Earnings are due out next week. They better say something good!

Meanwhile this morning we've opened higher on the MLP index by a 1.50 and now have pulled back a touch. Natural Resource Partners (NRP) is up 1 and some change as the coal plays continue to get attention. Losers are few however and only showing penny least so far.

I worked an all nighter so my head is a little upside down right now. More later.

Tuesday, February 12, 2008

I often check out the message boards of various mlps in the mlp universe and i stumbled onto this post on the Atlas Pipeline Partners (APL) board. I think he makes a valid point. Money market 30 day yields are about to collapse to a 2 handle. So as he puts it. The great chase for yield is about to begin. And we know just how wide those yield spreads have gotten.

Closed today with losses under 1 point on the MLP index. Coal mlps took the biggest hit. We'll see what tomorrow brings.
On the last tick of the day Linn Energy (LINE) closed can only laugh at these things.
Coal MLPS leading the way lower and the soft tape in the last hour doesn't help. Natural Resource Partners (NRP) and Alliance Resource (ARLP) are down about 1 each as is the MLP index.

The unholy alliance continues...Constellation and Eagle Rock down..Linn up by 1 cent. Glory! Constellation down 12 days in a row...Praise!
Dow up 200...MLPS up a small fraction but most mlps are actually higher. Enterprise Products Partners(EPD) Plains All American (PAA) and Oneok (OKS) are fractionally lower and are the drags here.

Sunoco Logistics (SXL) Kinder Morgan (KMP) and Boardwalk (BWP) lead the way higher up about 50 cents apiece and are the 3 big winners today. The strength should spread out and gain traction as the day wears on with the dow gain.

The unholy trinity continues...Linn and Eagle Rock are each up 5 to 10 cents ( wow) while Constellation (CEP) is down 5 cents. Remember that it is impossible for all three to close higher at the same time.

News this morning that Warren Buffett has offered a solution to the monoline insurers (not that they will necessarily allow themselves to be rescued) has sent stock futures soaring higher this morning. The market has felt like its been trying to put in a tradeable bottom. MLPS meanwhile had a good day overall yesterday closing at just under 298. There were some nice moves yesterday in Oneok LP (OKS) which was up 1.75 and Inergy Holdings (NRGP) was also up 1 and a major fraction.

Still there is the unholy trinity of Linn, Constellation and Eagle Rock which continue to go down day after day although yesterday the losses were relatively small fractions.

This morning we have earnings from Energy Transfer (ETP ETE) Partners and Energy Transfer Equity. Record results here. Also earning from Enterprise Products Holdings (EPE) which are lower. No other headlines this morning and no upgrades or downgrades.

So it looks like we should see an assault on 300 today and the question will be whether we can get above it and stay there.

Monday, February 11, 2008

Oil up 2 and change...nat gas soaring as well. In fact anything gas or coal is flying higher today. MLPS opened higher from the get go and the index is up 1.57 and at the highs of the day. Kinder Morgan Partners (KMP) is sitting near 59 up .75 and at a 52 week high. Natural Resource Partners (NRP) and Alliance Resource (ARLP) both coal plays are today's big winners up 1 and change. Lots of MLPS are showing nice fractional gains.
Of course its a rule of nature which has yet to be violated. The unholy trinity of Constellation (CEP) Linn Energy (LINE) and Eagle Rock (EROC) are all down and as it was pointed out to me recently it is impossible for all three to be up at the same time in one day. It is however possible for all three to be down at the same time and it is the case today although they are small fractional losers.
Hard to focus on the tape when you had no sleep the night before but i did catch a nap. The mlp index chart above continues to show basing action and we at least are trying to fight our way through the congestion zone where all the moving averages cross.

The world did not come to an end over the weekend which is a good thing. Stock futures have beens slowly firming up this morning after being lower overnight so we seem to be gaining a little footing here in what could be a bottom of some kind...or a bottoming process. Nat gas is up 20 cents on the cold weather in the east...10 degrees in NYC this morning.

Earnings news from Boardwalk Partners (BWP) which misses estimates by 4 cents but that doesn't mean much in this group as we know. The stock is down 57 cents in some pre-market trading. Also this headline as a sign of the market we're in; Plains All American is pulling the ipo of its GP. The company blames market conditions (you think?). At least that is less supply for an already over supplied group.

Nothing on the upgrade downgrade list so far. I'm blogging from work this morning so this post will be short. More later.

Friday, February 08, 2008

Two charts for you to look at. Hliland Holdings has one of the better looking charts in this mess and it looks like it might be getting ready to breakout above 50.

Holly Partners said it was "very enthusiastic" about the year ahead when it came out with earnings a few days ago and the stock has been moving higher. Looks like some resistence in here at 44....but if the market every stops going down this one could be a future outperformer.

I could show you the disaster charts but why be reminded of misery.
Okay...fool that i is against the laws of nature for CEP,LINE,and EROC to all close up at the same time. They can only close down.

Have a good weekend.
Open market purchase insider buy at Teppco (TPP). The stock is up 64 cents.
Maybe its because its a Friday. Tape seems quiet; almost eerie. MLPS up 1.50 pts on the index at 296. Most MLPS are up or down fractions. Kinder Morgan (KMP) and Energy Transfer (ETP) are up major fractions as the big winner. Penn Virginia Holdings (PVG) down about 1 point as the biggest loser. No news drivers today. US Shipping down a fraction and 11 and change on the distribution news...they are paying one. Williams (WPZ) Breitburn (BBEP) and Markwest (MWE) down fractions. Markwest getting ready to close its merger with Markwest Hydrocarbon.
Is it possible....even concievable that Linn Energy (LINE) Eagle Rock (EROC) and Constellation Partners (CEP) can all be up on the same day? So far Eagle Rock is up 13 cents ! The other 2 are down but trying. I dare not speak to loudly!
MLPS have the bit in the teeth and up 1.53...over 296. Overall market continues to show signs of bottoming.

US Shipping (USS) problems began months ago when they postualted about the safety of the distribution. The stock dropped to 8. Then they said the distribution was safe and the stock rallied to 12. Now the company announces its distribution of 45 cents which is in line with last quarter. But they go on to say that distributions will not be paid the the general partners and subordinated unit holders and that the conversion for those units will be pushed back. The savings will go to getting the US Shipping financial house in order. I'm not sure how this will be recieved. Citigroup is not seeing things with a bullish eye. They keep the stock at a sell and lower the target price from 12 to 9.50.

Nothing else in the news department this morning. Stock futures are soft but not tragic this morning. Volitility yesterday gave the feel of a bottoming process underway but we never know with these things until we're long past the bottom. Oil and natgas are up.

Thursday, February 07, 2008

The overall tape has the feel that we're mounting some sort of intraday bottom. Jury still out but if its real we could gain a head of steam in the afternoon. Meanwhile we are higher on the MLP index by just under 1 point.

There is some pain on the tape. Constellation Energy Partners (CEP) traded down to 19.30 this morning and its now back over 20; down 1.60. Breitburn is down 1.70 probably on yesterday's news that Provident Energy Trust will be selling out its stake. That is another one that is down from those 40 to 50% haircuts. Constellation is down from 50 bucks.. Other losers are shedding fractions like Atlas Pipeline Partners (APL) Inergy Holdings (NRGY) Atlas Energy Resource (ATN) Targa Resources (NGLS) and DCP Midstream (DPM).

Winners include Penn Virginia Holdings (PVG) up 1 and change. Fractional winners include Oneok LP (OKS) Alliance Resource (ARLP) Kinder Morgan Partners (KMP) and Sunoco Logistics. (SXL).
Constellation Energy Partners (CEP) can take heart that if the drop continues at its current rate the stock will be at zero soon with an infinite yield percentage and you will be out of your misery. Or at least you will be as miserable as Linn Energy and Eagle Rock Partners unitholders.
Constellation Energy Partners (CEP) has filled the COO position. The stock has gone from 50 to 21 in the last 6 months. Isn't that special?

Tough day yesterday with the MLP index falling into a sinkhole and dropping over 4 points at one point. And there was a "throw them out the window feeling" with some of them for awhile like Atlas Pipeline Partners (APL) which dropped 2 points for no reason. The move yesterday was led by some of the big caps like Kinder Morgan (KMP) and Enterprise Products (EPD) but the pain was spread around the whole group for sure. We are in that moving average cluster and the short term technical indicators are still in rally mode.

Meanwhile yields and yield spreads continue to push the limit here as more MLPS join the newly formed 10% yield group. And of course the dow looks like its going to retest that 12000 level very soon. Its a pass/fail test here and will tell us whether we can rally for awhile or if we have another 1000 dow points to lose.

Speaking of 10% yields Eagle Rock Partners (EROC) boosts its distribution by 7% and sits at just under a 10% payout. I think after this round of distribution hikes we can safely say that except for maybe Kinder Morgan (KMP) and 1 or 2 others...MLPS will continue to languish as the overall market sinks. It is becoming clear that this is not going to be the same as 2000-2002 when MLPS (smaller universe then) rallied sharply. This came after a tech bubble and a general underownership of anything boring (ie dividend payers). This time its about credit risk and frozen credit markets and; right or wrong; it seems to be impacting everything except for agriculture stocks. I was hoping the action from earlier this week was a sign of a divergence developing. And maybe it still is the case but 1 day does not a trend make. For those of you looking to add positions my view is to find the biggest distribution growers that have held there own through all of this mess.

Headlines as they break this morning. Story this morning about a liquor store in NYC taking euros as well as dollars. If this isn't the top in the euro...i don't know what is.

Wednesday, February 06, 2008

Sorry for the lack of posts today. Ash Wednesday and family crisis to deal with. MLPs had their own crisis down nearly 4 points today. Wasn't pretty as the overall market closed at its low and down. And the after hours news probably means a hard down open.

That market retest may come sooner then we think. And will it hold? Looking more and more doubtful.

In the last hour at one point yesterday the MLP index had rallied back about half way to a 1.50 loss before they sold it off in the last 20 minutes. Still it was nowhere near as bad as the overall markte which took nearly 400 pts worth of gas yesterday.

When you look at these short term charts it looks to me the mlp index is doing a good job of building a base here while we wait and see what the dow industrials will do as we seem to be in the process of some sort of retest of the lows.

This morning we have Lehman leaving Magellan Midstream Holdings (MGG) at an overweight along with Inergy Holdings (NRGP) and leaving Holly Partners (HEP) at equal weight but they are adjusting price targets down on all three by a couple of bucks. No other morning news headlines. More ex-distributions today so the open awaits us!

Tuesday, February 05, 2008

Dow down 300 points but the MLP index is well off its lows and now down just 1.50
Breitburn holders are getting news this morning that Provident Energy Trust will be selling their holdings in some Breitburn interests. The market has taken 1 point and change out of the price and it sits at 23. Now remember that the distribution may go to 2.30 annual in q1 so we have a 10% going foward yield. What this means longer term i'm not sure. The trust is selling out shares of a recent ipo. Their view could be " we made a lot of money; time to move on."They also mention Canadian tax law playing a role in their decision. They join a long list of MLPS dealing with stock supply. I'm not sure if this says anything negative here other than there will be stock supply for the market to chew.

Elsewhere its a hard market selloff but relatively speaking MLPS are holding up better. The index is down 2.50 and off the lows of the day. Its straddling its important moving averages on the chart. Breitburn and Buckeye Holdings (BGH) are the 2 biggest losers off 1 and change. Other `1 point losers include Nustar Holdings (NSH) Atlas Energy Resource (ATN) Inergy Holdings and Inergy LP (NRGP,NRGY) and Global Partners (GLP).

Not many winners today. Spectra Energy Partners (SEP) was up 1 up 75 cents. Magellan Midstream (MMP) is up on earnings news. Earnings up also for Inergy and we have Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) buying some propane businesses.

If you take the view that the overall market is going to head for a retest of 1300 on the S&P and 11800-12000 on the dow...basically around the January panic lows....then we need to stay above 275-280. If the group is finally diverging from everything else then we have no worrys about dropping down into that abyss again.

Someone posted about Constellation Energy Partners (CEP) and why its getting hit day after day. Last week the company announced it would be selling units in a mixed shelf but i think the fact that the company did not boost the distribution last quarter is probably weighing more. And now that we're ex-distribution the last hangers on who were waiting for a payout can now bail out. So we have another MLP that joins the growing list of 10% yielders.

We are about to challenge the 200 day which is very encouraging. Also encouraging is the fact that mlps rallied yesterday while the market sold off. Okay it wasn't the biggest sell off we've seen but it is a divergence and it is something to bear in mind.

We are on an 8 day winning streak and we have another day where the market is going to at least start lower. Lets see if the divergence continues.

Earnings news this morning from Holly Partners (HEP) which beat by a penny and they say they are "very enthusiastic) abouth growth in 2008...whatever that means. Lehman is starting Targa Resources (NGLS) at an overweight and they raise their target price on Alliance Resource Holdings (AHGP) to 30 from 28 and keeps it at an overweight.

Monday, February 04, 2008

Good action here as the MLP index is over 300 and is closing in on the 144 and 200 day moving averages which sit around 302. Mommentum here seems to be building as money today is heading into yield. Definitely nice to see.
Nice action today as MLPS are adding to gains while the overall market is going sideways with a slightly lower bias. It hasn't stopped the usual bleeders from going down but it least they are not gushing out blood from arteries today...just paper cuts with a little blood. Winners of 1 point or more include Holly Energy Partners (HEP), Nustar (NS) EV Partners (EVEP) and Alliance Resource (ARLP).

Teppco (TPP) is down 45 cents, maybe on earnings. Inergy Holdings (NRGP) and Martin Midstream(MMLP) are down major fractions as the biggest losers.

Looking like we could get above 300 and maybe challenge the 200 day moving average.

We are up on the MLP index for last week and we are on a 7 day winning streak...which is nice. We are also making some headway through the moving average resistence here. And who knows. If everything stays relatively calm we could get above 300 where the 200 day moving average sits. So some hopeful signs as we start the week.

Earnings news this morning from Teppco which posts numbers. The company also is announcing a purchase which is putting them in the marine transportation business. Something new here for them!
Meanwhile i thought i would post some charts of a few MLPS that have not participated in the rally. In fact some of them haven't exactly stopped going down.

The E&P group seems to be having issues in here. Most of this has to do with stock overhang from priviate equity stock sales so there is stock supply. And of course we have gone over Linn Energy (LINE) so many times i have decided that i am not going to even bother talking about this one until the yield drops under 10%.
No other news so far this morning and no upgrades or least so far.

Friday, February 01, 2008

This SEC filing hit the tape and Linn Energy is selling off. Outside of the fact that it says Deutchebank holds 6.8 million shares....i'm not sure why this is selling off again. It doesn't say the shares are hitting the market or are being sold. Am i missing something here? Anyone can figure this one out please post on the comments section...preferably before we see a 15% yield.
Employment numbers were dismal which means the fed is in play for another 50 basis points. Stock futures trying to hold 138...10 year at 3.60.

I'm trying to find an mlp angle in this story but unless they can figure out how to move oil and gas through software and yahoo mail. Still it is driving attention to the stock market this morning as stock futures are soaring ahead of the employment numbers. So we should continue to get support for a 6th winning day in a row and the assault on the moving averages continues.

No news in the group this morning and no upgrades nor downgrades. Some end of month action and ex-distribution action was occuring yesterday and so far the bigger cap mlps have been gaining but the smaller ones have not rallied yet. But if the group rallies today look for the the rally to spread out. 300 on the MLP index is within striking distance.