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Friday, January 29, 2010


Kinder Morgan is getting hammered in the last hour here down 2.66 and under 60 for the first time in awhile and that's taking the whole group down with it except for a handful. Nustar (NS) is down 2 and Alliance Resource (ARLP) down almost 2. The dow rally this morning is long gone and its down 50 as we head to the last 30 minutes. 10000 looms large below with 9800 logical support.

Tough week for me but i will post some thoughts over the weekend. Next week im back to normal.

Thursday, January 28, 2010

Sorry for the lack of posts today but i had to work a double shift and was left exhausted and feeling a bit under...i have one more day of this torture before returning to normal...i will try to post Friday around lunch time.

Wednesday, January 27, 2010

Dow and nasdaq both up 10 points. Mlp index -7 and change.
Dow firming on the fed least at this momment. MLPS at the lows of the day with the index down over 8. 2 point plus losses in Inergy Holdings (NRGP) Buckeye Partners (BPL) and Oneoke(OKS).

Dow chart does not look promising here. We could be getting ready to jump. If it breaks 9800 is a logical support level.
Just a hunch on my part but for those of you thinking about taking positions in might not be a bad idea to put limit orders well under current prices in case the bottom falls out later today. No guarantees but if selling gets intense later in mlps you might catch a few of these a little cheaper.

food for thought with the mlp index now down 7.60 and the dow down double nickles (55).
Down 7 points as we head into the afternoon. The mlp index is getting hit by ex distributions plus some additional selling. Some mlps are down sharply but are not ex distribution like Buckeye Partners (BPL) and Inergy Holdings (NRGP) which are down between 1 and 2 points. Oneoke (OKS) Kinder Morgan (KMP) Magellan (MMP) TC Pipelines (TCLP ) among others are down 1 point or more.

Crosstex (XTEX,XTXI) are both up as they sell some notes to pay off debt which the market views positively. Sunoco Logistics is up 75 cents but off its highs on excellent earnings and the distribution hike. Alliance Resource (ARLP) was up about the same earlier on its news but its now down a small fraction as sellers come in and overwhelm the positive news.

Dow is down 50 and depending on what the fed does, its possible we could see the dow test 10,000 later today. Its only 150 points away from where we are right now.

They continue to roll in and the news is good. Sunoco Logistics (SXL) came out with record earnings last night along with a distribution hike. And this morning we have a 6 cent distribution increase for Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP) along with record earnings. The company also issues guidance which is in line with estimates. Sometimes in this group it means something and sometimes it doesnt. Sunoco Logistics has a few trades higher in the pre market. Nothing yet on Alliance. Alliance Resource Holdings (AHGP) also comes in with a distribution hike. Conference calls for all coming this morning.

The ex distribution cycle starts today with Oneok (OKS) going ex dis. Usually mlps tend to sell off a bit once the payout comes out and it will be interesting to see if that happens and to what extent because while the dow has pulled back 600 points or almost 6% in the last week; MLPS are just 1% off their intra day high as measured by the index. So money continuees to flow into shares ahead of payouts. Pre markets are flat. Fed meeting and announcement later today and as mentioned yesterday we are at an important inflection point on the charts.

Cold weather for the northeast and mid atlantic and a Saturday snowstorm for parts of the south and mid least thats the way it looks right now.

Tuesday, January 26, 2010

Inergy Holdings (NRGP) continues to just bowl strikes..up another 2 this morning and is looking at 70 dollars soon. The brave among you could have had under 20 when the world was ending. MLPS a little lower as we seem to be marking time. Except for the above mentioned mlps most mlps are moving small fractions in either direction.

Funny when you look at the charts that we seem to trade into these technical areas that are so important without realizing it until we get there. There is a fed meeting today with a 2:15 announcment coming and there could be an important move coming out of this. The dow industrials are sitting right on the uptrend line so it could be a do or die move here.

The mlp chart is in a different place as it continues not only to hold up well but from a relative strength basis has even corrected with the dow off the 10,700 high from last week. Distribution hikes have been robust in some instances; just take a look at Inergy Holdings from yesterday with a 3 point gain on a 8% quarter over quarter distribution increase.

The ten year has come into an area of strong support on the chart as yields have gone from 3.90 to 3.55 since Jan 1st. So my guess is that markets are going to want to go higher which means i will predict a rally in the dow and 10 year yields later today after the fed announcement. (potential for a famous last words momment !)

Back to mlp land we have a distribution announcement from Regency Partners (RGNC) on the tape this morinng. There is some stock for sale at yesterdays closing price which may or maynot mean anything. Williams Partners (WMZ) announced its distribution last night and is pre announcing a 2 cent increase for Q1 which is line with its recent restructuring announcement. Nothing on the upgrade downgrade list so far this morning. Crude is lower. Stock futures are hovering near the unchanged line after being down sharply overnight.

Fasten your seatbelts people..could be an interesting day ahead.

Monday, January 25, 2010


A three point plus gain is on the board with today's biggest winner as Inergy Holdings lifts its payout substantially. And this GP of Inergy LP (NRGY) has tripled (yes boys and girls tripled) from the lows of last year. Inergy LP (NRGY) also ups the payout and has performed well in this rally but not to the same extent as the gp.

MLPS are up nicely today as we get back all of Fridays losses and more. The index is up over 3 points. Nustar (NS) is a 1 point plus winner today. K-Sea got an upgrade today and its up over 1 as well; a big percentage winner. Most mlps are up fractions to a point. No outstanding losers that i could find.

Saturday, January 23, 2010

Sorry for no posts yesterday as my schedule is pretty full the last few days. MLPS held on well until the last hour when the bottom fell out in the market but on a relative basis mlps continue to perform pretty well

This looks to me to be a sharp bull market correction which means the bounce may come very quickly. We are already down to the 89 day moving average on the dow for the first time since crossing it in July 2009. The weekly charts could argue for a trip down to the 34,55 and 89 week moving averages which btw on the S&P chart are just crossing back to a positive slope. That shows just how much damage occured in that bear market that we are almost 11 months into a rally and the moving averages on the weekly chart is only now turning up.

MLPS are outperforming and should continue to do so.

Thursday, January 21, 2010

You have to love a president who when he opens his mouth can send the market into a sinkhole. The dow is down 210 and mlps have finally given up the ghost and are down 4 points on the index. No surprise since it was just a matter of time. They cant go up every day.

Nustar (NS) Kinder Morgan (KMP) Sunoco Logistics (SXL) and Alliance Resources (ARLP) all down 1 point or more and most mlps are showing strong fractional losses.

A few winers as the Williams Brothers (WMZ,WPZ) are up a few pennies after the big run from Tuesday. Atlas Pipeline Partners (APL) is up near 13 on the Citigroup upgrade. Breitburn LP (BBEP) is up fractionallly at 13.50.

HORRAY FOR 300! We hit it yesterday at the close and it marks quite a milestone as i would guess anyone who reads this blog probably knows that 13 short months ago we were somewhere down under 200 and coming off a 146 low. So its an over 100% gain from the low plus distributions. 300 is a significant place on the charts and there are alot of people that could be in a position to get out even. Countering that is real yield and a spread over the 10 year which continues to drive buyers into the group. A couple of things. A correction is overdue but there is still room for mlps to run based on that weekely chart. I guess its possible that we could be entering a new trading range on the weekly chart between 280 and 310. But thats something that we'll know after the chart evolves. So in the meantime enjoy as many of us have seen our mlp portfolios back to pre 2008 levels.

Nothing on the newswire this morning but we do have Kinder Morgans earnings (KMP) from last night which look very good but we could be in the mode of buy the rumour sell the news which would be no surprise as the stock has run from 55 to 65. The conference call transcript is here for those of you interested. Kinder is a cash flow machine and the company keeps its 2010 distribution guidance the same at least for now. Oneok LP (OKS) ups the payout to 1.10 and the yield here is down at 6.60. Thats a 10 year spread of about 2.95 basis points. The bigger mlps have seen the yields return to where they used to a range of 2 to 3.50 baisis points over the 10 years. I guess the only thing that can stop the mlp rally is if long term rates rise.; which everyone has been predicting but frankly never seems to happen! Plains All American (PAA) rasied its payout yesterday and its another 6.60 yielder.

You had some significant upgrades yesterday by Raymond James of E V Partners (EVEP) and Linn Energy (LINE) to strong buy from buy which is pretty aggressive. Today we have Citigroup moving on Atlas Pipeline Partners (APL) to buy from hold. That mlp has run back to a 12 handle but is miles away from its all time high.

Stock futures pre open are flat and so far this week the overall market has gone nowhere in 2 days. Energy is a little higher with natgas numbers out later today. Rates are a touch higher as the dollar continues to rally.

Sorry for no posts yesterday as i was on a double shift which leaves one a little brain fried to blog.

Tuesday, January 19, 2010

4 points higher on the mlp index being led by the Williams (no not serena and venus) as they are up 3 on WMZ and nearly 5 on WPZ on the morning restructuring news. Also Kinder Morgan (KMP) is up 1 as earnings and distribution news loom tomorrow. Might be buy the rumor sell the news setting up there. Most mlps are higher today strong fractions to a 1 point. Sunoco Logistics (SXL) is up another 1 and change and is sitting at new all time highs.

Looks like 300 is do-able before a trip back to 280.
Both Williams mlps (WPZ,WMZ) are up 2 dollars and change in pre market trading.
Williams Partners (WPZ) is up 1.21 in pre market trading on its restructuring news.

The idea is to enhance growth and make Williams LP (WPZ,WMZ) a self funding mlp. The company says it plans to raise the distribution 3.5% beginning in Q1 2010. The setup is immediately accretive and no changes are made to 2010 guidance. My guess is that there should be a positive reaction to this and as the charts show the 2 mlps have done well particularly WPZ which has been rising faster relative to the mlp index since the summer.

Kinder Morgan (KMP) will kick off the mlp earnings parade after the close tomorrow so we should be looking forward to that. We have seen a few mlps dribble out their distribution announcements in the last few weeks but now comes the bulk of announcements.

Not much else on the corporate side this morning as we come back from a 3 day weekend. Stock futures are a little lower. The dollar is higher. Oil is lower and nat gas is down 3% as warmer weather has spread across the US at least for now. The dollar is up against the Euro and yen this morning. At some point a correction is coming sooner or later. MLPs continue to hold up well relative to the rest of the markets. We go down less on downdays and up more on up days. Friday we had some nice relative outperformance.

Friday, January 15, 2010

Its was a matter of time but with the market better in mlp land its time for an IPO! Sign of a top coming?

Used to be that options expiration didnt mean much for mlps but for the last number of cycles there has been a one day sell off in the group during options expiration. These sell offs wind up getting reversed in a day or two and dont mean much other than to give those nimble enough an entry point at a lower price. Still it makes you wonder whether we are no longer that group of stocks that no one pays attention to. Lots of public offerings has put more shares on the table making this group more liquid. Add to that the ETN that trades based on the mlp index (AMJ)for mlps and who knows what else and the result is perhaps a little more excitement in day to day movements. But remember when the sell offs come (and they will) the movements might be bigger than what we're used to when compared to say post 2008. Of course those of us who lived through 2008 know that nothing will compare to that. And hopefully we never see anything like that again.

Wells Fargo is making some ratings changes as it upgrades Nustar (NS) and Holly Partners (HEP) to outperform from market perform and downgrades Oneok (OKS) to market perform from outperform. Oneok is down a fraction in the premarket. No trades in the other 2 yet.

Otherwise this morning its farily quiet. Not much happening out there on a Friday before a 3 day weekend. Stock futures are a little weaker heading into the open with the dollar rallying. 10 year is up in price down in yield. Energy looks a little lower before the open.

Thursday, January 14, 2010

Nustar (NS), Inergy Holdings (NRGP) and Gensis (GEL) are leading the winners list today up about 1 point apiece on average as the mlp index is up 1 and some change. The dow is up 30 points with a bond rally underway. Most mlps are up small fractions. None of the losers today are down because of news except for Kayne Anderson (KYN) which is down 1.30 and off its lows on a stock offering. Holly Partners (HEP) is down 70 cents but there is no news there.

Distribution announcements continue to roll out here and Genesis (GEL) is the next on the list to up the payout. This is the 18th consecutive quarterly increase. Copano (CPNO) had a nice run up recently and they maintain their payout although the company says its see the possibility for volume growth as the outlook has improved. That's it for headlines this morning.

Not much else happening this morning as stocks are a little soft. Crdue is flat. Nat gas is a touch higher as inventory numbers loom later today. MLPS had one of those one day sharp sell offs that got reversed for the most part by days end. We finished the day down 1 after being down nearly 5 intra day. This seems to happen once a month around options expiration. Im not exactly sure why. Perhaps its some of the funds like Tortoise (TYG,TYY) or Kayne Energy (KYN) or Energy Income and Growth (FEN) doing some sort of rebalancing around this time. Im not sure. In this uptrend the one day drops seem to get undone in short order and so far have been nothing more than short term buying opportunities. Still looking to 300 as the next major upside wall.

Wednesday, January 13, 2010

Looks like they chose today to do this unwind around options expiration. MLPS plunged down nearly 5 points on the mlp index with a lot of 1 point losses but with the market they've turned those around and the index is down less than 2 now. Buckeye Partners (BPL) El Paso (EPB) Targa (NLGS) and Vanguard Resource (VNR) remain down 1 or more. But others like Atlas Pipeline (APL) Markwest (MWE) EV Partners (EVEP) and Oneok (OKS) among others have come well off their lows.

Inergy LP (NRGY) is up nearly half a buck and leads a short but lengthening list of winners today. Last hour looks firm.

Two more mlps last night announced stock offerings. El Paso Pipeline Partners (EPB) announced its second stock offering in the last 6 months. The last one was with the stock at 19. Now in the mid 20s they are doing it again. Targa Natural Resouces (NGLS) also comes to the table with a stock offering. Both stocks are trading down a dollar in the pre market.

Elsewhere this morning its quiet after yesterdays 2 point -ish mlp sell off if you want to call it that.

We might be in a topping area in here with the trend line down in the 280 area. But we still have seasonal factors at play. Dollar is down and 10 year yields are up this morning in pre market trading. Crude and nat gas are off a touch this morning. Stock futures are higher going into the open but nothing overly exciting.

Some tax issues regarding MLPS have been coming up including the annual rumour about tax changes in mlp land. Seeking Alpha addresses it in this piece published a few days ago. Eagle Rock Energy Partners (EROC) is ammending some issues regarding their recent deal. Not much else happening this morning on the news front.

Finally i blogged about my recent experience regarding a biased survey i was asked to be part of on the issue of climate change. Here is more on the story.

Tuesday, January 12, 2010

Down nearly 2 on the mlp index and near the days lows with the dow down 60 and off the days lows there. Transmontaigne (TLP) EV Partners (EVEP) and Vanguard Resources (VNR) are down 1 point or more. Most mlps seeing fractional losses today.

Enterprise Products Partners (EPD) is up a small fraction and so is Duncan Partners (DEP). Duncan announces its 5th consecutive quarterly increase in the distribution. Enterprise announces its 22nd consecutive quarterly increase.

We have Bank Of America/Merrill starting Inergy LP (NRGY) at a buy this morning and Inergy LP (NRGP) at a neutral. Both MLPS are just off all time highs. Not sure how much impact this will have as the stocks are where they are plus we have markets looking weak at the start this morning after Alcoa (AA) earnings last night. They are a tad light on the bottom line. That plus Chevron coming out and saying earnings will be below estimates means we start down. Dow futures are down 65 points.

In corporate developements we have another stock offering this morning as Transmontaigne (TLP) annoucing a 1.75 million share offering last night. This mlp gets my vote for snobbiest sounding name. Stock is off 1 and small change in the premarket. Nothing much else happening this morning. No other upgrades or downgrades. So we let the day begin and see where it takes us beyond the open. Surely we are due for a down day for the overall market after 6 straight up days.

Monday, January 11, 2010


It isnt often that i stray from my usual writings about master limited partnership stocks but i need to share this with my readers. I recieved this email a few weeks ago and quite frankly i did not think too much of it.

dear AMS/NWA or RTDNA member,

I invite you to participate in a National Science Foundation-funded
survey of TV meteorologists and news directors being conducted by George
Mason University in cooperation with the American Meteorological
Society, the National Weather Association, and the Radio and Television
Digital News Association. We are conducting this research to better
understand TV meteorologists' and news directors' opinions about climate
change, and how they cover the issue in their work.

We understand that climate change is a controversial issue among TV
meteorologists and news directors. Our aim, therefore, is to have every
member of your professional community participate in this survey so that
we - and you - can have the fullest possible understanding of the range
of opinions and actions among your peers.

To that end, everyone who completes the survey will receive a $30 gift coupon as a token of our appreciation, and a report that
summarizes our findings. If you participate, it will take you about 20
minutes to complete the survey.

The survey will be conducted online; we will provide you (via email)
with a web-link to the survey. All data collected in this study -
including the names and contact information of people who choose to
participate - will be treated with the strictest of confidence: your
name will not be released, and your answers will be analyzed only in
aggregate with those of all other participants.

No action on your part is required today. On Tuesday, January 12th, you
will receive an email from us with a link to the survey. You may take
the survey at your convenience - anytime between January 12th and
January 28th - by clicking on the link in that email.

We hope that you will participate in this important research. Thank you
for your consideration.


Ed Maibach, MPH, PhD
Professor and Director
George Mason University Center for Climate Change Communication

Now at first glance i thought; okay i will do the survey and get a 30 buck Amazon Gift Certificate to buy a couple of dvd's or something. Then this morning i recieved emails from a few of my fellow meteorologists and one of them called to question the motives the man in charge of the study. So i jumped on google and found that Ed Maibach is who we says he is with George Mason University Center for Climate Change Communications. But what struck me was his bio.

Here is the opening paragraph:

In 2006, while on a walk in the mountains – with Director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Professor Hans Joachim Schellnhuber – Ed had an epiphany that forever changed his life. He realized that climate change is the ultimate threat to the public’s health and wellbeing, worldwide, and Ed responded by refocusing his work entirely on climate change prevention and adaptation. Ed moved to Mason in 2007 to join the communication faculty and create the Center for Climate Change Communication.

EPIPHANY??? It is interesting that Mr Maibach chooses to use the word Epiphany. Words have meaning and it is no accident that a word used mostly in religous context is used here. We all pretty much know the significance of the Epiphany in the Christian faith. "Little Christmas" as it is called is celebrated on January 6th. In the Catholic Church it is usually the first Sunday after January 1st. Dictionary dot com has this meaning for Epiphany.

1. (initial capital letter) a Christian festival, observed on January 6, commemorating the manifestation of Christ to the gentiles in the persons of the Magi; Twelfth-day.
2. an appearance or manifestation, esp. of a deity.
3. a sudden, intuitive perception of or insight into the reality or essential meaning of something, usually initiated by some simple, homely, or commonplace occurrence or experience.
4. a literary work or section of a work presenting, usually symbolically, such a moment of revelation and insight.

I assume Mr Maibach's epiphany falls under number 3. He clearly states he realized at that momment on the mountaintop that he had a mission to focus his attention on Climate Change and its threat to public health..or for that matter i guess it would not be a stretch to say our very existence. His aim as stated on his bio is as follows.

Ed’s research interest is focused on the question: How can we use communication and marketing to influence the behavior of populations for the benefit of society?

After digesting all of this i cannot tell you how disturbing this is to me both professionally and as someone who has been a meteorologist for nearly 30 years, that i am being asked to participate in a survey whose ultimate aim is to influence the behavior of populations for the benefit of society. I have been at best a skeptic on the man made global warming theory that has taken on a religous fervor among the believers. What is even more disturbing is that the American Meteorlogical Society ( to which i am no longer a member) apparently saw fit to release my name and email without asking. I assume the AMS is okay with the upfront bias but i wonder has anyone there even bothered to check all this out?

I for one am not going to participate and i urge my fellow on air meteorologists to think very carefully about being part of this. Suppose you are a skeptic and word gets out; are you going to be labeled a denier? Might this have future impact on where you work or for that matter if you will work? I am not one who normally believes in conspiracies but it was just a few years back where Heidi Cullen of the Weatherchannel said that those who do not toe the line on global warming should have their American Meteorological Society crudentials decertified. This is a world where politics have completely taken over the science. Science should be allowed to function without the push and pull of zealots on either side dictating outcomes before studies are even conducted. Climate change, global warming or whatever you want to call it is not settled science. Let me make this clear...THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS SETTLED SCIENCE...never was...never will be. But there is such as thing as zealotry and politics and people with agendas. And frankly its very dangerous for anyone who is drawn into these circles because they move you from matters of science to matter's of faith. Something this important should not be left to those who can shout the loudest. The AMS should at the very least be involved with work that has no agenda stated ahead of time...or at least be honest with its members before going in. And the AMS needs to guarantee the integrity of those whose answers could be misconstrued or, later on even used against them in matters regarding professional employement.

If anyone thinks i'm off the wall might want to ask anyone from the University of East Anglia. All it took was a hacker and a server in Siberia. Damage to peoples lives could be done with much less.

At least for storage. No confirmation from Nustar yet but its another 400,000 barrels of storage which adds to the 5 million barrels rumoured last week to be in Nustar tanks. Might move the stock today. Also on the news front this morning Inergy LP is buying up some nat gas assets in upstate NY. The company has been firing on all cylanders lately as the stock is at all time highs.

Also this morning Enbridge Energy Partners (EEP) is dealing with what appears to be a small oil spill and they've shut some pipelines down as a result. No pre market indications here. Not much else happening on the news front this morning in MLP land.

New week begins with stronger stock futures and stronger crude this morning pre open. Nat gas is selling off a little as the US cold weather pattern looks to relax for a few weeks. This is typical in most winters. The atmosphere needs to reload and rebuild cold air and that takes time. Nothing on the upgrade downgrade list that i could find this morning.

We are in the 13th month of this bull market in mlps as we have doubled the Dec 24 2008 low around 145. The question is what lies ahead and some notes of caution i think are in order. Among other things this rally has co-incided with a big rally in corporate bonds and that spread has now droppped to under 2 points to treasuries. This does not leave room for much upside. Also note that mlp yields continue to come in. They are not at a point where you would be yelling sell but at least we should recognize that we are not going to be up 100 percent again this year. Short term corrections could come at any time but mlps will continue to at least move with the overall market.

Friday, January 08, 2010

Markets aren't doing much of anything today and given the "bad" employment numbers this is a sign of underlying strength. The range has been extremely tight and the tension is building for a big move soon; odds favor up given the trend. MLPS started down but are now higher on the day by a fraction on the index. Copano (CPNO) and Markwest (MWE) were down on Morgan Keegan downgrades but off the lows of the day. Sunoco Logistics was up 1 and change this morning; turned lower and then higher again on the Goldman upgrade from sell to hold. Most other moves today have been fractional with not much conviction.

Back on June 22 the know alls at Goldman Sachs told us to sell Sunoco Logistics with the stock at 50. And now today with the stock at 68 they tell us to sell no longer...just hold. So 18 points and 2 distributions later the boys and girls of Goldman have changed their minds. Now dont misunderstand me; we all make errors and if we didnt you would have no problem building wealth like Warren Buffett. But this was not a good call. Lets see if this is a sign of a top in that mlp now that Goldman says not to sell anymore.

Morgan Keegan is busy this morning cutting Copano (CPNO) and Markwest (MWE) to market perform from outperform. Both stocks have enjoyed nice runs in the last month. Not much else on the news front. The employment numbers were a bit disappointing but the markets are not exactly falling out of bed so far. Frankly the longer the recovery takes the longer the rally lasts so this might be a good thing. Meanwhile MLPS finally pulled back substantially yesterday (relatively speaking) down 3 on the index. Most of that was Enterprise (EPD) thanks to their equity offering. Markets are a little soft as we head into the open. Energy is a little lower. The dollar is also losing ground.

No other headlines this morning in MLP land.

Thursday, January 07, 2010

Enterprise (EPD) Kinder Morgan (KMP) Nustar (NS) and Buckeye (BPL) exerting gravity on the mlp index with all of them down major fractions and the index down 3. Crosstex (XTXI) is the big winner today up 72 cents or 10% on the convertible prefered issue for Crosstex (XTEX) which is up but up much less. Some profit taking in recent big winners like Markwest (MWE) and Oneok (OKS). Transmontaigne (TLP) is down 1.40 and the days biggest loser.

Market not doing much ahead of tomorrow's employment report.

High prices mean currency and MLPS have begun to go to the well gain. Enterprise Products Partners (EPD) becomes the second MLP this week to go to the equity markets with a seconday and they priced it this morning. I would expect to see more with prices for many mlps near all time highs. Crosstex Energy (XTEX) is doing a convertible preferred offering with the shares priced at 8.50 for conversion purposes. Since they dont have the currency; this is the next best thing.

This morning we have what looks like a softer open in stocks and a bit softer in oil and gas as the dollar rallies. I still maintain we should watch for a sharp correction in here but who knows what will set it off. Maybe next weeks options expiration, maybe its tomorrow's employment numbers; who knows. I do know we've seen a rush into mlps that began a month ago and that trend can't go on forever. But it can go on long enough to get us to 300 on the index.

Okay kids the open looms shortly.

Wednesday, January 06, 2010

Check out this link from Investor Village. Thanks to Factoids for the link. Some food for thought on this runaway rally in mlps.

MLP index closed up but off the highs today. 15 of the last 19 days are higher and we are about as far away from the 34 day moving average as we've seen since the rally began and the moving averages went positive. Certainly some caution in here is perhaps wise.
Enterprise Products Partners (EPD) annoucnes a public offering of shares after the close. The stock closed up 6 cents at 33.06 but its down over a dollar after the close.

Nothing from Buckeye Partners (BPL) so far after the close re my prediction. Oh well!
In lieu of Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) equity offering i have my eyes open on the tape. I have no way of knowing this but Buckeye Partners (BPL) is trading this afternoon like they might be getting ready to announce another one.
MLPS at the highs of the day after the fed minutes and a firm energy complex. We're seeing prices in some MLPs breaking out (again) with Atlas Pipeline Partners (APL) achieving a 12 handle for the first time since November of 2008! The stock is up nearly 1 right now. Energy Transfer Equity (ETE) is up 1 vs Energy Transfer Partners which is down 1. The latter is doing an offering and sold 8.5 million shares..up 1 from the original announcement. The view may be that the GP is better than the LP for many reasons (see prior post and link). Inergy Holdings (NRGP) ripping higher by 1 and change and at new all time highs.

Nustar (NS) Alliance Resource (ARLP) and Holly Partners (HEP) among a small list of losers and they are all down small fractions and off their lows.

While Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) has been recovering with other big mlps it has lagged behind the others and stock offerings could be the reason. As announced last night another 7.5 million shares have it the tape and the stock is down over 1 in the premarket. Needless to say there is some anger on the Yahoo ETP message board but i did find this thread posted by "Factoid" who in the past has been a wealth of information. Someone asked the question about mlp sell metrics in relation to MLPS. Follow the thread with his reasoning. It is quite helpful in understanding the situation at ETP.

I've been using strength here to reposition as the run in MLPS continues to just roll along and 300 is at our door step. Honestly did you think a year ago we would be this high and seeing many mlps at or near all time highs? Frankly i certainly did not think it would be this robust. But it is what it is folks and I suppose if the market continues to have a tailwind, the index could make a run to all time highs around 340. But i tend to think that a pullback here and a sharp one is increasing in probability. I just dont know when.

No other headlines this morning and no upgrades or downgrades so far this morning. Markets look flat at the open but the day is young.

Tuesday, January 05, 2010

After the close Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) announces yet another public offering of 7.5 million shares which is the 3rd offering in the last year. I would not be surprised to see more of this from other mlps whose prices are sitting at 52 week highs or in some cases all time highs. If you have a strong currency you might as well monetize it. Stock closed at 46.10 but is trading at 44.90 after hours.
Took a position in Calumet Specialty Producsts (CLMT) which surprisingly upped its distribution this morning; surprise in that they announced it so early in the new quarter.

MLPS up 3 heading into the close. The train is still moving higher.

It has been almost unrelenting as we charge higher this morning. The mlp index is up well over 2 points and 300 is only a handful of points away. Some of the lower priced MLPS are moving sharply higher on a percentange basis like Atlas Pipeline Partners (APL) which is up over 7 percent today and now has an 11 handle. Also moving higher is Crosstex (XTEX) which is up over 9 after trading down to 8.50 this morning. Elsewhere fractional winners pretty much across the board. Inergy LP (NRGY) Oneok (OKS) and Sunoco Logistics (SXL) all up 1 or more.

No news drivers in any of these as it appears its just the momentum that is carrying everything higher. At some point a pullback and a sharp one is in order but at what level?

Monday, January 04, 2010

Markets are roaring and mlps are leading the way up over 5 points and up over 290 on the mlp index. The next wall i think is around 300 and i'm assuming today's rally is real so im not fighting the tape.

All mlps are up this morning except for Exterran (EXLP) which is down right now by about 20 cents and 1 or 2 others flipping around the unchanged level. One point or more winners include Inergy Holdings (NRGP) Magellan Midstream (MMLP) Sunoco Logistics (SXL) Alliance Resource (ARLP) Oneok Partners (OKS) and Kinder Morgan Partners (KMP).

Happy New Year to all and we should all be sober by now! And it begins folks. Today is day one of a new trading year and i think we need to acknowledge right off the bat that MLPS are just not going to have another year like last year. 176 to 286 on the mlp index for a gain of 110 points or a gain of 62.5% and then of course add 4 distributions for a total return of over 70%. More importantly if you were in the right mlps you might just be hack where you were in 2006 or 2007 while everyone else is somewhere back before 2000. Many mlps like Kinder Morgan (KMP) Sunoco Logistics (SXL) Inergy Holdings (NRGP) Inergy LP (NRGY) and a few others are at new all time highs...not just 52 week highs. Patience has paid off for mlp holders and we may be among the few to come out of the 2008 bear market alive.

We have our first deal of 2010 with Inergy LP (NRGP) buying up assets for over 200 million and of course the deal is immediately accretive to cash flow. This makes Inergy the largest propane company in the US. No other headlines so far this morning. Today is also a big day for upgrades and downgrades but nothing on the list so far that impacts our little group.

Markets are starting the day firm with stock, oil, nat gas, and gold all nicely higher pre open. Cold weather here in the east and we had 5-10 inches of snow here over the weekend making my little Long Island neighborhood something out of the arctic! So we start firm and we shall see where the first day takes us.