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Wednesday, November 30, 2011

Testing my smartphone

Posting using the google app from my smartphone. Horray!

Mlps closed basically flat as the dow closed up almost 500. Right now futures just a little lower as asia plays catch-up. The euro is up a couple of ticks but under 1.35. Europe is still a problem inspite of central bank actions.


Central banks from around the world got together and orchestrated a one day rn ujp in stocks. The move is to get the banks working again in Europe. My own view given the hints of the last several days in the bond market was that someone out there was about to go under and the central banks had to do something to stop the blood flow at least for the time being. So the end of the world has been averted at least for now and the dow is up 400 points in relief as of this post..not too far off the +430 high of the day. And if the rally were really the beginning of something big, why is the 10 year yield only back up to 2.06%?

MLPS however are not doing much. The index is up a little over a point and while there are some individual moves like Williams (WMZ) which is up 1 and Atlas Pipeline (APL) also up one, most mlps aren't doing anything unusual. Kinder Morgan (KMP) is at another all time high in here as it nears 80 bucks. Sunoco Logistics (SXL) is down 2 but still over that magic 100 buck mark.

Last hour approaching. I would think with the Euro off its high of the day and bond yields not rising would be a reason for them to lean on this rally. 12000,1240 and 2600 all are psychological lines in the sand. Technically we are around or still below the 200 day in most averages. But its very hard to fight the tape. Overall we have seen the dow go from 12,200 to 11,200 and then back to 12,000 in 9 trading days. MLPS have been in a range between 360 and 370 during that stretch. At least its relatively stable somewhere!

Tuesday, November 29, 2011

MLPS still up 1.51 but there is distress showing up elsewhere. Maybe the reason why the 10 year did not sell off yesterday in the big stock rally is because it is smelling a bank in trouble. Bank of America is flirting with 5 dollars right now. If that breaks below 5...look for a big late day selloff.
This does not look good folks. Spreads are about to blow out.

We seem to be at the point where our group is probably the last group standing. When you scan the charts from the broadest energy stock index to techs to everything else, all the charts have broken down. Yesterday was another periodic exercise in delusion. MLPS seem to be the only group that is working. Check the new 52 year high list and you will find mlps and not much else. But if we are on the verge of a major breakdown, we are going to go down with it. The question is whether we will hold up better than everything else. If we look back at the 2008 unwind, mlps were being sold hand over fist because of the massive seizure in the credit markets. If there is another seizure than we could see another big unwind. However the lesson of 2008 was that when the bottom was put in, it was a lifetime buying opportunity. First things first though is 355-60 support and then 320 which has been the short term bounce point. So lets keep a watchful eye.

BTW based on the weekly chart, after 320, 280 would be the next logical place. I think its all going to come to a head in the markets over the next few days.

No news of consequence this morning on the corporate side and no upgrades or downgrades. Stock futures are following Europe tick for tick. Europe traded off the Italian auction which somehow was viewed as not a disaster. Record yields here are absolutely unsustainable. The clock is ticking and ticking fast.

Monday, November 28, 2011


Europe is front and center this morning again as we once again have another plan to plan to have a plan. Combine that with retail sales this weekend that were especially strong among groups of people that use pepper spray and you have futures up sharply. In reality a bounce of size was coming considering we've been down 7 days in a row and closed last week on the low tick of the week; 900 points down in 7 days means we open up. The question is what happens after we get through the open and whether they start to lean into this rally.

MLPS held up pretty well last week when compared with the rest of the market which fell apart. Straddling support we will of course head higher on the open this morning and here too we will see if they lean into this after the open is worked through.

No corporate news this morning and no upgrades or downgrades this morning. With all the risk on trades working this morning everything is up including yields which are up 10 basis points on the ten year to 2.07%. European yields were higher overnight in Italy and Spain but are now a little lower. In the end inspite of all the day to day noise absolutely nothing has changed. Europe remains in the edge of the abyss, the US is on the edge of a recession, and no solutions are in sight. Again watch the rally and see what happens later today.

Thursday, November 24, 2011

Just a quick update before i hit the road. The euro rally has evaporated and stocks in Europe are selling off with the Euro which has dropped 1/2 cent in the last hour. Stock futures here have turned lower.

Okay sweet potato biscuits ready to go...hitting the road shortly.

Just want to wish all my readers a very happy Thanksgiving to you and your family and be safe and eat well today!!! Every year we are on this earth is a good year folks no matter what markets bring you!

Euro markets are not falling apart this morning however they bounce we are seeing is about as dead as a dead cat bounce you can get. And i just noticed that the Euro has turned lower so euro stocks have come off their highs. The DAX was up 100 now up 50. The FTSE was up about 30 now up only 5 and the CAC is up 25 after being up about 50. Our own stock futures are trading and they are up about 40 dow points...which gets you back the last 5 minutes of yesterday.

And since tomorrow kicks off the Christmas shopping season let me say 2 things. First off, refuse to participate in that horror of black Friday which begins tonight. I refuse to have any part in retail as they have ruined Thanksgiving and it really should be stopped. And (here comes the shameless self promotion on my part) if you really feel the need to shop, do it through the amazon link above. It doesn't cost you a dime and Amazon sends me a small cut which lets me pay a bill or 2! Some of you have and i really really really really appreciate it!

Wednesday, November 23, 2011

Barron's blog has mlps mentioned today. Don't need to be a subscriber.

Markets off the lows as people start to head home for Thanksgiving.
The mlp index is about to break below its moving average support lines though its down a little less than 5 points. Markets are imploding including the euro which is selling off hard after holding up for so long. The mlp index is among the last measures to breakdown below support. The markets sort of remind me of this!

Europe is clearly melting and is Dorothy the ECB? Or is the scarecrow Ben Bernake.."if i only had a brain!"
Europe is on the edge. Good interviews and perspective in case you missed it this morning.


For mlp holders being long over the holiday doesn't afford too much risk. The stocks remain (for now) closer to their highs for the year than their lows. So far they have resisted the bearishness that is spreading across all markets. The support levels for mlps remain above the supporting moving averages and they may be one of the last groups to be in this position.

The dow was the last chart to break below the 50 day (of the major averages) and we are now have pretty much nothing from here down to the lows around 10800 or so. The news this morning is not good all the way around from the China PMI index dropping below 50 and the lowest in 32 months to the situation in Europe which may now being getting very close to the edge of the abyss.

The German bond auction today was by all reads a disaster with virtually no demand. It appears the crisis is spreading into the core. We could be rapidly approaching the tipping point here. Given all the uncertainty does anyone want to be long with us being closed tomorrow for Thanksgiving and limited trading Friday while Europe continues business as usual?

Being its the day before Thanksgiving the news front is quiet on the corporate side. No news and no upgrades or downgrades. Stock futures here start us down about 100 dow points. Crude is selling off and if the market selloff takes us down to October 4th lows look for brent to head below 100 bucks. The euro is selling off on the German bond disaster. Gold is down which in my view is indicating that someone out there is selling due to stress (major european bank?). The 10 year is at 1.95%. There is potential for it to get ugly as the day wears on.

Tuesday, November 22, 2011


Certainly the drop of 600 points in 4 trading days means the market is entitled to some sort of technical bounce. But there are big headwinds all over the place. Europe which got hit pretty hard yesterday was up earlier but those markets have now turned lower. The GDP figure for Q3 was revised down to 2.0 from 2.5%. The super committee failed which was no surprise. We could go on and on here. Markets are staring into the abyss as all support levels below have been pretty much taken out. So unless we get some market moving headline look for sellers to try to gain the upper hand and fade any rally attempt.

Of course MLP holders continue to enjoy relative comfort as the index closed well off its lows of the day yesterday with a little bit more than a 3 point loss and still above all important support. Legacy Reserves (LGCY) gets an upgrade from Baird this morning to outperform from market perform. Cheniere Energy (LNG) is up a buck in the premarket in active trading as they sign another 20 year LNG deal. Otherwise its a quiet morning on the corporate side.

Stock futures are sinking fast right now after being higher are now lower across the board. Yesterday's intraday lows loom large here. Euro markets have lost their gains and are now lower. The Euro was higher and now it too is heading back to the flatline. Crude is heading back to unchange but nat gas is a few ticks higher on colder weather prospects down the road. MLPS will continue to outperform but at some point if this sell off really starts to get serious, they will be sold. And btw with all the uncertainty in Europe, would you want to be long going into Thanksgiving? Europe is open Thursday while we are shut down. Should be interesting for sure.

Monday, November 21, 2011

MLPS are down with everything over 7 points on the index. This puts the index right into the moving average support zone. So a break below 360 could be ominous here for the group but then again it would be in conjunction with the overall market anyway. The dow is down over 300 points as he head into lunchtime with the S&P and Nasdaq all down sharply and all important support has been taken out on all the averages.

Specifically among mlps, Alliance Resource (ARLP) and Sunoco Logistics (SXL) are both down just under 3 points. We have a long string of mlps which are down between 1 and 2 points. The winners list right now is empty.

Lunchtime has taken us a touch off the lows. It might get really ugly after 1pm.

One of the problems when looking back on any given period of time...say the week before Thanksgiving, or the last quarter of the year for example, it assumes that every year conditions are always pretty much the same. Well folks, this year, it appears that we have put a financial meltdown on the table. Europe continues to circle the drain and we see nothing coming today that indicates that the ECB will step foward and stop their problems. Over the weekend Germany's position of no bailouts for Greece, Italy, Spain, or anyone else. only got harder. The bond market has been successful in overturing another government as Spainish elections have thrown out the socialists. Meanwhile the shock of all shocks was that there was no deal on the budget from the Washington Super duds. So the markets are set to open down sharply lower this morning, More on that later.

Let us, for now suspend the world for awhile and look at mlps. The chart has yet to break down and actually remains locked in this sideways pattern we've been in pretty much since May. Buying down at 320 has been smart. Selling up here around 370 has been also smart. 390 is the all time high which is not that far away. So what puts an end to this lovely little world? If the world does meltdown again ala 2008 than we will see our little group unravel. I would point out that we probably have more people invested in mlps now than we've ever had before. (there are commercials running on CNBC!). Fundamentally the group looks pretty solid so it will give us the chance to gather shares on the cheap again.

Back to the markets note that last week did damage. Starting with the Nasdaq the rising moving average support lines did not hold. The dow chart is the last one to breakdown and will do so at the open this morning. I use fibbonacci based, expotential moving averages, but the simple 50 day moving average which is widely followed sits at 1206 and that goes at the open. The 1200 level might hold for awhile today but ultimately it will go as well.

For the dow industrials that average sits at 11523 and it will probably get there at some point today if the selloff accelerates later today. Note that the dow is the last chart to break down. The broader index charts broke down first and that is not good.
The nasdaq composite which is the most speculative of the indexes was the first to breakdown late last week.
So with the breakdown of all major support i think we can pretty much look to the October 4th bottom for a serious retest of that level. Given everything we are facing right now, the odds of that level holding are shrinking fast especially if Europe unravels.

Okay back to MLPS we have Global Partners (GLP) annoucing a deal this morning that is accretive to earnings. Otherwise its a relatively quiet morning here with no other news and no upgrades or downgrades.

Markets are down pre open as mentioned but a little off the lows of the morning as Europe comes a little off its lows of the day. Crude is down and Brent is down to 106. 100 is critical there. The dollar is stronger pretty much across the board. Nat gas is down a little. No cold air in the US right now to make a difference. Weather patterns may change to colder across the midwest and northeast later next week. Gold is down on the idea that when you need to raise cash you sell what you have. So the open looms on what does not look like a good day ahead.

Friday, November 18, 2011

Open looms..does not look impressive. Look for sellers to arrive for the big test.

Stock futures are higher pre open as we are looking to bounce higher at the start. The bounce began very late in the session yesterday (last 2 minutes..about as late as you can get!) when the dow went from -200 to -134 at the close. Yesterday's close among the major averages saw important trendlines being taken out in the Nasdaq and the S&P 500. The Dow closed right on its uptrend lines. The 50 day moving averages lie just below and i would expect that they will be tested today after whatever bounce we get. And make no mistake folks if they don't hold, look out. Meanwhile the Euro is up over 1 cent this morning so far and i'm beginning to wonder whether the currency market is beginning to bet the the Euro survives as the southern European countries eventually separate themselves or leave completely. A smaller eurozone made up of the Northern Euro countries could send it higher. It has been one of the possibilities put out there but it just adds to the confusion.

MLPS yesterday closed higher and actually have had a pretty good week. The tape here remains firm and i suppose when you have 6% yields in the face of a 2% ten year, money just continues to flow in here. In the end, if we are at the beginning of a move back down to the bottom of the market range (1080-1100) on the S&P, mlps will eventually sell off. I have to be honest folks, i'm getting a little uncomfortable seeing all the attention mlps are getting with CNBC commercials running all day long. There is a much larger contingent of fast money getting in here and you have to wonder what will happen if these holders have to raise cash. Still you have to let the tape tell you the story and for now mlps remain in fairly good shape.

No news on mlps this morning and no upgrades or downgrades. European stocks are mixed this morning but not exactly bouncing. The 10 year is sitting at 2% and up a few ticks. Gold is higher. Oil is nudging up against 100 bucks after being down over 3 bucks yesterday. Keep your eyes on what happens after the open and if the sellers gain the upper hand. And of course the 50 moving averages which sit at 1205 on the S&P 500, 2589 on Nasdaq (nasdaq is 2 ticks below it), the Dow Industrials at 11,507, and the MLP index at 355. Btw Nasdaq was the first to go up through the moving averages and trendlines in the rally and its been the first to move down through those trendlines. So they have been a great leading indicator.

Thursday, November 17, 2011

BTW for the S&P the 50 day moving average is at 1204. If this goes...look out below.
The mlp is down a little over a point here as mlps hold on as the last haven of safety and always in a sell off, it ain't over until they get to us. And it may be awhile before they get to us judging by the tape action. And its a run to cash as gold is down nearly 60 bucks here. They aren't flying into the 10 year as its yield is only down 5 basis points to 1.97%. The October low yield is down around 1.69%.
Market suddenly in free fall collapse mode here down 180 points in a matter of minutes. MLPS were up but have now turned lower. Important support is being taken out rather quickly and the tape is getting extremely heavy. Something big is happening.

It seemed like it should have been a simple thing to do but i guess these things take time. Yesterday's news that Enterprise Products Partners (EPD) and Enbridge Energy (ENB) are going to get a pipeline from Conoco(COP) and reverse the flow of oil so that it moves oil from Cushing Oklahoma to the Gulf of Mexico. Its been the reason why US oil was selling for 25 dollars a barrel less than the world oil price. Now that the US is a net producer of oil for the first time in 20 years, we need to flow oil south to seaports. So US West Texas oil soar 3 dollars yesterday to 103.00 and the spread between US and the world prices has dropped to 8 dollars. It was a distraction however to the Euro obsessed markets who learned yestereday at 3:30pm that...gasp...US Banks might be at risk if Europe doesn't do something soon to stop the contagion. Im sure that piece of news was a shock to anyone living in a hole in the ground.

The move yesterday from 3:30pm to 4pm took the dow down nearly 200 points at the close. So i thought this morning it would be a good time to bring out the longer term charts to see what's going on. If its 2008 all over again note the huge 2 1/2 fold move of the MLP index. The index is not that far off its all time highs near 390. The index has been moving sideways this year between 320 and 390. Is this a long term top being established?

If we see a huge unwind with Europe or some big bank, we could be in for some trouble. MLPS have become a large part of many portfolios and if assets need to be sold, it could be troublesome. 320 is the first line in the sand that needs to hold. Otherwise 270 is right below.
The support levels on the dow are 10,400 which is the October low and 9800 where there is a ton of support. If that one goes its a long way dow to the March 2007 low at 6500. I'm just putting up the numbers in case the world comes to an end. Btw i did reshort again on Tuesday.

Europe of course is the focus this morning as French and Spanish bond auctions did not go well. Euro markets were lower ahead of the auctions and are now seeing new lows on the day. That is taking US stock futures with them. Oil is down today especially Brent North Sea oil which is down over 2 dollars and squeezing the earlier mentioned spread even tighter. Gold is down and the Euro is unchanged. Watch the trading closely today as we are getting close to very important support levels short term. 11,650-11,750 are where the moving averages lie. For the MLP index its within 358-361. For the S&P its between 1225 and 1230 and we could be there at the open. By the way as i type this post, its getting very ugly in Europe.

Tuesday, November 15, 2011


We seem to be on the edge of something big again, one way or the other. The tape feels very weak as we had rally attempts earlier which faded. So for now anyway, the sellers have gotten the upper hand. The Euro is right near 1.35 which is down .0118 cents today. The euro bond markets continue to see rates spiking higher with Italy back over 7%, Spain is well over 6, and France is seeing its spread to Germany blow out to all time highs. The contagion is spreading and markets are going to reach a point where patience comes to an end. I think the last leg that is holding the markets up is this belief that the ECB will be the lender of last resort. The ECB and Germany have said this will not happen. We shall see but i think we are at a place where its going to determine whether we go racing down to the lows of October..or head for the highs of last May.

MLP are down 2 points on the index today but they were up 3 points yesteday on a day the market lost ground. There is action today in one mlp that is down 2.33 as of this post and that is Inergy (NRGY) which put up earnings and guidance which were not helpful. Volumes dropped in a soft propane market.

The stock has been in a strong downtrend for months now and while the lows were made back in early October, the bounce back has been rather anemic. One wonders whether the distribution might be in trouble come next quarter. If that low gets taken out, then the market may be telling you something.

Lunch time with the dow down 40 and off the lows. Nasdaq is flat and the MLP index is off a little less than 2. The tape could go either way this afternoon.

Monday, November 14, 2011


Europe remains the driver this morning although we are not falling out of bed over the Italian auction which went well enough to prevent hell from breaking out. Still they sold bonds at record high yields and the Euro is down a little less than a cent this morning. This took futures which were higher over night, a little lower before the open. But overall its just down by a handful of ticks and nothing this morning is indicating that we are going to have one of those gut wrenching down days. Tick for tick just watch the euro. Its that simple. As for the charts the mlp index bounced right off the positive upsloping moving averages. 375 is the resistence wall. The dow chart is at resistance as we are right at the top of this rally which we first hit back on October 21st when Europe solved their problems again. A breakout higher from here takes us to about 12800 which would be the highs for the year. The 200 day moving average (not shown on these charts) has been the turnback point so far. Lets see what today brings.

One piece of new this morning comes from QR Energy which announces good earnings and note in the press release that they have already announced the next distribution which has a 15% increase in it. Other than that its a quiet morning with no other news and so far no upgrades or downgrades.

So another week begins. Lots of economic data this week that might matter if it shows that recession is back on the table. Crude and nat gas are lower. Crude is hitting 100 buck resistence here. If we are drawing similarities to 2008, crude was the last thing to top out. The ten year is sitting above 2% by a few ticks. Hard for me to imagine the stock market can continue higher with rates close to 2%.

Friday, November 11, 2011

This is a great only sorry i didn't know it about it sooner. Bookmark it people. And it will be not only on the blogroll but it will be a source here i will link to!
btw i don't know who it was because i lost the email..but one of you readers emailed me about adding your mlp blog to the blog roll. If you read this...i lost the please re-email me and i will add it over the weekend.

Markets seeing a little (but not much) weakness heading into the close. Looks like a finish off the highs of the day.

Not much to say today. Dow up 250 as we head into the last half hour. MLPS only up 1 point on the index as it has underpeformed lately on rallies and down more on down days. Not sure if it means anything. Frankly not sure anything means anything anymore with 3% moves in either direction becoming commonplace. All of this is being down on shrinking volume which pretty much means that a handful of people are in the casino right now. Also the "world is ending-the world is not ending" trade shifting to not ending today as suddenly there is hope that Italy and Greece will solve their problems. The euro rallied big today which is the main reason why the market is higher.

I put the national debt clock on the sidebar just for laughs. Sunoco Logistics is up 1.50 and near 103. Its the mlp version of Apple Computer!

Thursday, November 10, 2011

The tape has been so boring today to a large degree. This rally off the selloff seems to be lacking any real conviction. Its literally tick for tick with the euro. And right now heading into the last hour the euro is losing steam and the nasdaq has gone negative again. Watch 2600 there.

MLPS are doing well today up over 3 points. Sunoco Logistics is the big winner at 102 up 2 1/2. Most mlps showing fractional gains.
Nasdaq got to 2601 and least so far. Markets following europe and about midway between the high and low of the day. The mlp index is up less than a point right now.

It did not take long but after the up open of about 150 we are now almost flat and nasdaq is down. In fact please note that the nasdaq chart, which was the first to break out in this recent rally is now the first to be breaking down. 2600 is the magic place for me and the 2575. And btw in Euro news they are going after France now as rates there are soaring and yield spreads widening. MLPS are up 2 points on the index but it remains all about Europe.

Yesterday had us on the edge of the abyss but with some overnight and morning headlines that are not bad, the markets are taking a breather this morning and we are seeing a bounce of 130 points. The italian bond auction attracted some buyers with yields over 7 percent and we are seeing those high yields come off the highs. But Europe remains front and center and if those yields start to rally again later today, you can watch the stock markets start to come off these highs. The strength of yesterday's selloff will be measured by where we close today. If they can't hold the bounce or add to it, then the market may be telling us that we have serious trouble ahead.

MLPS made a fast move down to support so we are at a critical juncture here for the group. MLPS have been soft all week and did not go on to new recovery highs in the rally. And one needs to remember that if we begin to see real stress develope in the lending system, you might see that stress show up on the MLP chart first. We need to watch this development carefully.\

Earnings this morning from Suburban Propane (SPH) which missed by a penny. No press release yet. Citigroup puts a buy rating on Genesis LP (GEL). And that's it as far as important headlines go. So its back to Euro watch as the markets trade tick for tick there. And we are all Italian bond trades until further notice.

Wednesday, November 09, 2011

We are right at support on the S&P 500. 1220 IS HUGE!!! Right now at 1229 down 46. Nasdaq is down 102 and cutting below important support. The last hour could be a horror show.

The MLP index is also at major support and we could have a sell signal here. The index is down 7 and at the lows of the day.
Just hit minus 400 on the dow and minus 6 on the mlp index. We are a few ticks off those lows. Not looking too good here for the last hour. Also Nasdaq which was the first to go above its 34, 55, and 89 day moving averages are now back down to those averages on the chart..down 90 plus points.

If the nasdaq pushes below there today, it will be the first to break down and could be telling us that more selling is coming over the next number of days.
The ECB says it will not bail out Italy as bond yields there exploded through 7%. Meanwhile we are just 25 points off the lows of the day here of minus 310 on the dow. The mlp index is right near its support between 355-360 and it wont be a good sign if that goes. Watch carefully tonight if margin calls in Europe begin a vicious cycle of more margin calls and in effect more selling. And then the last straw might be if Italy has a bond auction and no one shows up for it.

EV Partners (EVEP) is the biggest mlp loser down over 3 points. Plains All Amercian (PAA) is down nearly 3 points as well. Sunoco Logistics (SXL) Nustar (NS) and Calumet (CLMT) among the few winners up fractionally.

The last 2 hours are going to be fun.
Intervention by the ECB in the Italian bond markets is being reported and that may not be a good thing. The Euro has actually dropped to the lows of the day on the report. The reason being that if the ECB comes in and doesn't create a market turn of substance, sellers will come in and drive yields even higher. Our stock futures are just a few ticks off the lows of the morning.

MLPS trading so far include Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) which is down another 75 cents and Plains All American (PAA) which is down 2 dollars on the equity offering.

Watch the 1.36 level on the euro because if that goes, it could get even uglier in a big hurry.

Looking at Italy this morning it appears that the buzzards are circling as italian bond rates surged a whopping 75 basis points to well over the 7% threshold which is the level where everything starts circling the drain. Where the problem lies is in margin calls and they have begun and if you have to raise money to cover one position, you might have to do it by selling something else. European markets are down 2 to 3% across the board and stock futures here are down 2 1/2% pre open. The euro is down 2 cents against the dollar which is a big move. So at least for the open we will be under quite a bit of pressure.

MLPS were down yesterday while the market rallied. Much of that was the equity offering of Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) which has some weighting in the index. Plains All American (PAA) is next in line to sell shares and perhaps this recent rush to sell shares is telling us something about the short term. Perhaps there is a feeling that the MLP may have run its course for awhile. And since we are not far from all time highs on the index, it really isn't a bad place to sell. Plains is down 2.18 this morning in the pre market.

Transmontaigne (TLP) is a case that is very interesting as it was down over 2 dollars yesterday. The reason is that Morgan Stanley owns a chunk of the GP and the problems that M.S. had whether real or imagined, has impacted Tranmontaigne's ability to grow. Morgan Stanley is down 4% in the pre market. Lets see if there is follow through selling today.

No other news and no upgrades or downgrades so far. Its all about the markets today and its all about Italy. Has the final circling of the drain finally begun?

Tuesday, November 08, 2011

MLPS remain relatively but overall markets are now moving higher as the dow is up 50 points. The tape really wants to go higher on every piece of breaking news. Berlesconi will resign once the budget is approved. The Euro is now up 1/2 a cent and the market moves with the Euro. While all logic says we should go lower, the tape is telling us we are going higher.

Back to mlps the drag is Energy Transfer (ETP) which is down over 2 points. Transmontaigne (TLP) is also down 2 points and we have most mlps down major fractions to a point. Crosstex (XTEX) and Nustar (NS) are the big winners today up 75 cents apiece.

Yesterday's action pretty much adds to the argument that barring a complete meltdown of Europe, the market continues to shrug off Italy, Greece, or anything else. The euro is the thing to watch as the market continues to trade tick for tick with the euro. The MLP index closed down yesterday but off the lows of the day. It opens lower today as the equity offering from Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) weighs on the index. The stock is down over 2 dollars. Legacy Partners (LGCY) is doing an equity offering and that stock is down 1 and some change.

Iran tensions are up this morning as they may be close to a nuclear bomb. Great news there for Israel. This has oil up a buck this morning. Stocks open higher as we wait the italian vote but the markets are approaching the recent rally higher and are doing it on very light volume.

More posts later as we see developements play out. The mlp index is down a little less than a point.

Monday, November 07, 2011

Btw some important levels to watch. On the mlp index new support lies between 355-360. For the S&P 500 it is around 1220 and for the Nasdaq Composite its at 2600. Significant violations of those areas would be a big sign that bears are gaining the upper hand again.

Markets at the lows of the day. Dow down 45. Nasdaq down nearly 30 and the mlp index is down 3 points. Btw if the dow closes down by over 120 points we would have a negative key reversal. Now i would just point out that while positive key reversals like the one on October 4th tend to be meaningful, negative key reversals are a little harder to figure out and have a muddied success at forecasting downtrends.
Time to look at the weekly charts and a couple of things to point out. One is that the mlp index has been moving pretty much sideways and on a weekly basis does look a bit toppy. The issue is what is out there to cause it to drop. Essentially there are 2. 1 is a full meltdown of the credit markets and 2 is the tax issue. The tax issue will not see the light of day as long as Chuck Schumer is around. As to the first..that's out there as the European crime scene and so far the can keeps getting kicked down the road. I wonder when will markets simply run out of patience.

I would also point out that the Dow chart is still on a buy signal on a weekly basis and the moving averages are still bullish. The August-September decline has still not turned the weekly chart bearish. Dow now down a whopping 15 points and the mlp index is down 1.63.
Markets are mostly higher after the latest version of the world ending seems to be in a holding pattern (yet again). MLPS are down on the index by a point and some pennies. The group appears mixed. Sunoco Logsitics (SXL) trades above 100 bucks a share now and traded over 101. Its down 30 cents on the day. Global Partners (GLP) is the biggest loser down 75 cents. Martin Midstream (MMLP) is the biggest winner of the day up 62 cents.

The VIX is up today by over 1 point which might mean that this rally won't hold. But the tape seems to be fighting every attempt to break it down.
BTW please let me point out that i was being sarcastic this morning with regards to being bullish...i was just attempting to point out that lately i've been a wonderful contrary indicator!!!!
Btw i want to point out that since my post...Dow futures were down down 50. The market has heard that i've publically thrown in the towel!

We're waking up this morning to all sorts of craziness as every headline out of Italy is moving the markets. Bond markets there are seeing yields blowing out to new highs and yield spreads between Italy and Germany at all time highs so the contagion from Greece is spreading west. Meanwhile the markets are also moving on whether Berlesconi (Prime Minister of Italy) will or won't resign. Its coming to where news organizations are checking his facebook page for market moving headlines. This is the world we live in. Meanwhile we're being pulled back and forth by those headlines. Now stand by people im about to make a statement...ready???? Ok here it is. "Im becoming more and more convinced that our markets have pretty much discounted all of this Euro-shit..and unless we see something on the order of a full scale default and meltdown..our markets will probably move higher in the next few months." There i've said it. I've thrown in the towel. Now if there ever is a reason to sell, i have just given it to you by going bullish!

MLPS meanwhile are continuing this sideways move near the top of their recent range and 375 is the new wall here for mlps to chew through. If they get through it then 390 is the next stop and perhaps a move to new all time highs. This morning Wells Fargo is upgrading Eagle Rock Energy Partners (EROC) to outperform from market perform. And the other headline is from Targa Natural Resources (NGLS) which puts up earnings this morning.

In other markets Stock futures were sharply lower early this morning by 150 dow down just 25 and right near fair value. Oil is up, gold is up, and nat gas is down. The Euro is down by about 1/2 a cent from Friday's close. Look for markets to move higher today after the open as the Euro-news is pretty much becoming a big yawn. And remember folks i have just turned bullish! And btw if u can read Italian here are where the worlds headlines are centered right now.

Friday, November 04, 2011


Just what they need in Europe as the G-20 has decided that maybe they will meet again February and maybe again in May. They just love meetings in Europe. Meanwhile the Italian Bond market is showing signs of stress, Greece is teetering on the edge, and markets are back in world ending mode. MLPS are flat to a little higher. EV Partners (EVEP) was up 2 and change asn Baird raised its price target to 107. Otherwise its a lower Friday for the overall tape as im sure no one is going to want to be long into the weekend. And of course we have a confidence vote in Greece (oxymoron in there somewhere) where the outcome means more uncertainty either way.

Today is the first of 2 Breeders Cup races so i've decided to focus attention on losing money there.

Thursday, November 03, 2011


Honestly their are moments lately where i long for a less inter-connected time. The Greece drama continues as the referendum on the Euro is on again, off again, on again, off again. Last night when i went to bed dow futures were down 160 and the S&P was down around 1213. And of course this morning as has happened many times in the last few months, the entire move is reversed. The ECB came out and cut rates by 1/4 pt which no one apparently expected. So European markets are trading as if everything is wonderful. Schizophrenia is a wonderful thing to live with.

MLPS continue to move with the market. You have to keep any eye on that 375 level and what happens if we get down to 355-360 where my favorite support lines lie. Until then the trend remains sideways until the overall market gives us direction that we can trust.

No news to speak of this morning and no upgrades or downgrades. The overall market is under headline risk for whatever happens in Greece today. The Euro is higher but well off the highs of the day. Actually if you want to watch one element in this tape, watch the Euro as the markets pretty much trade tick for tick with the Euro currency. Crude is doing the same thing. Nat gas is always in its own little world and is flat. So fasten your seatbelts folks for another crazy day.

Wednesday, November 02, 2011

Watching the fed press conference. We are three questions through and no one has asked about Europe yet. Steve Leisman of CNBC asked about republicans and the feds independence. Markets have gone nowhere since 1pm. I guess we'll have to wait until after this is done.

Fed did nothing and pretty much said nothing. Market was up 210 now up 110. MLPS were up 2 now down a little less than a point. MLP chart above is showing what either looks like a triple top or an inverse head and shoulders bottom. Since we've covered both extremes it probably means more sideways action although the overbought oversold indicator is close to indicating a sell on the group.

Looks like for the time being we're getting a little bit of a break this morning from the non stop headlines from Greece but be advised that this is only temporary and of course the focus shifts to Italy and Spain. We have a busy day ahead though with the fed meeting which last time set off a big decline when they came out with a very gloomy economic outlook. I guess we may find out how much of the October rally was predicated on QE3 if the fed doesn't announce it today. So at least for the open this morning we are going to see about a 100 point bounce after being down nearly 600 dow points in 2 days. And Memeorandum has some nice pieces on the Greek vote and what it may mean for the Euro. Its not good.

MLPS lost 6 points on the index yesterday as markets tanked. This morning we have earnings from Magellan Midstream Partners (MMP) and Energy Transfer Equity (ETE). Magellan had a record quarter and is firing on all cylanders. ETE has put out headlines but im waiting for the full press release. No other the news and no upgrades or downgrades.

Im not sure if anyone has noticed but there have been a lot of commercials lately on CNBC about the MLP ETF's which has led me to wonder how much has ETF trading taken over in this space. And you have to wonder if sellers ever do show up here in force whether they will push mlps down harder but then again ETFs are so dominant now in daily trading that they have in effect become the market. But at least for this morning we're getting a bit of a breather as we wait for the Fed and any other headlines that could be breaking from Europe.

Tuesday, November 01, 2011

BTW it should be pointed out through all of this rally that the bond market has been correct through all of this. While we rallied back to 2.40 on the 10 year after last Thursday but one had to ask what the bond market was saying about overall conditions with the 10 year at 2.40%? It was saying that the Euro deal was bullshit and that the economy here is going nowhere. So the yield rally is over and we are at 2% this morning on the 10 year. Looks like if it gets really ugly we might retest the September lows down around 1.70%. And the stock market is not going to look good if we get there.

News last night that the Greeks will vote not once but twice on the Euro deal is bringing to a head the reality that this deal was nothing but bullshit. The German Dax is down 5 1/2% this morning and Italy and Spain are down almost 6%. We have our own futures pointing to a Dow open of down about 200 points. This wipes out all of last Thursday's ridiculous gains and then some. It has been my contention that if it took 17 trading days to take us up 1800 dow points, that we will give most or all of that back in less than 1/2 the time. If i am right we could be back down to the bottom of the trading range by the middle of next week!

No doubt MLPS will be following the market along this morning. And it could get ugly for the markets as the day wears on so we will of course keep a watchful eye over whether mlps can continue their relative outperformance. We have no news on the corporate side this morning. Citigroup is raising Boardwalk Partners (BWP) price target this morning off of yesterday's earnings.

Im in the process of cleaning up 12000 emails and discovered i may not have answered a few. My apologies! If i missed you please email me again. I've made a vow to clean up my mailbox.