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Friday, November 18, 2011


Stock futures are higher pre open as we are looking to bounce higher at the start. The bounce began very late in the session yesterday (last 2 minutes..about as late as you can get!) when the dow went from -200 to -134 at the close. Yesterday's close among the major averages saw important trendlines being taken out in the Nasdaq and the S&P 500. The Dow closed right on its uptrend lines. The 50 day moving averages lie just below and i would expect that they will be tested today after whatever bounce we get. And make no mistake folks if they don't hold, look out. Meanwhile the Euro is up over 1 cent this morning so far and i'm beginning to wonder whether the currency market is beginning to bet the the Euro survives as the southern European countries eventually separate themselves or leave completely. A smaller eurozone made up of the Northern Euro countries could send it higher. It has been one of the possibilities put out there but it just adds to the confusion.

MLPS yesterday closed higher and actually have had a pretty good week. The tape here remains firm and i suppose when you have 6% yields in the face of a 2% ten year, money just continues to flow in here. In the end, if we are at the beginning of a move back down to the bottom of the market range (1080-1100) on the S&P, mlps will eventually sell off. I have to be honest folks, i'm getting a little uncomfortable seeing all the attention mlps are getting with CNBC commercials running all day long. There is a much larger contingent of fast money getting in here and you have to wonder what will happen if these holders have to raise cash. Still you have to let the tape tell you the story and for now mlps remain in fairly good shape.

No news on mlps this morning and no upgrades or downgrades. European stocks are mixed this morning but not exactly bouncing. The 10 year is sitting at 2% and up a few ticks. Gold is higher. Oil is nudging up against 100 bucks after being down over 3 bucks yesterday. Keep your eyes on what happens after the open and if the sellers gain the upper hand. And of course the 50 moving averages which sit at 1205 on the S&P 500, 2589 on Nasdaq (nasdaq is 2 ticks below it), the Dow Industrials at 11,507, and the MLP index at 355. Btw Nasdaq was the first to go up through the moving averages and trendlines in the rally and its been the first to move down through those trendlines. So they have been a great leading indicator.

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