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Wednesday, May 30, 2012

A massive pile on into the 10 year which is now down to 1.63% and the dow is down 150. MLPs are down 7 on the index and getting back down to the lows of a week or so ago. Markwest (MWE) is under 50. Kinder Morgan (KMP) is under 80. Lots of losers on the order of strong fractions to a little over 1 point.

That 1.63% 10 year is pretty scary if you ask me.

 Just back from a very long weekend dealing with soccer tournaments and speeding cameras in Maryland where apparently its a second source of income by nailing unsuspecting out of towners. So im playing a little bit of catch up as we take a look this morning at the charts to see where we are.

After a couple of months where the mlp index was under performing the markets, it appears that the market and the mlp index are now pretty much in lock step since the beginning of May as they have been going down together. Now we have a move sideways over the last week or so and we have some of the technical indicators telling us that the markets are oversold enough for a tradable bounce. But i believe that any bounce up will probably be capped by the downtrending moving averages which like a few percent above these levels. MLPS are in a world of shrinking margins here along with dropping demand worldwide and a 10 year yield spread above 400 basis points. So we are in one of those areas where caution is advised.

No corporate developments to trade on this morning and no upgrades or downgrades so we will be watching Europe. Spain was down over 5% earlier but has now rallied back to unchanged on the latest European bullshit regarding recapitalizing the banks. Crude is under 90 bucks and Brent is nearing 105. Nat gas is down to 2.42 and could be signalling that the latest rally that started at $1.96 may have run its course. Watch the 360-365 level on the mlp index as the week rolls on.

Wednesday, May 23, 2012


Euro woes dominate the tape and markets are looking at the exit doors and using it. The dow is down 180. We have the S&P index below 1300. The mlp index is moving right along with everything else and the index is down over 5 points and just above last weeks' lows. Barrons Online (no subscription  needed) had a blurb about mlps and their behavior last week and it pretty much sums up the problems here. We have falling commodity prices, shrinking margins, and euro fears. In the end Europe is driving the tape and if the selling gets ugly..people will sell what they have. These days they have a lot of mlps. And i would slightly disagree with the perspective of buying the big boys in mlp land right here. If the sell off  gets ugly, they are overowned and will get sold down pretty hard. The good news however is that when a rebound comes (im an optimist)..they will run back fairly quickly.

Plains All American (PAA) Kinder Morgan (KMI) and Suburban Propane (SPH) are the biggest losers here down 1 point and change on each. The index just hit its lows of the day...down over 6 points.

Tuesday, May 22, 2012


Yesterday's 8 point mlp gain pretty much undoes Friday's 9 point mlp loss. Looking at the daily chart the selloff Friday brought us down to 365 which is not far above the initial 360 target i mentioned. But right now the bounce looks like nothing more than that as we went pretty much straight down from 400 to 365 over a matter of 2 weeks. I thought that the weekly chart would prove useful here and notice we are sitting right on the 89 week moving average. From a weekly standpoint the chart is telling us that we may be putting in a longer term top. A breakdown from here takes us to support at 340 and from there its down around 290. Overall the tape remains bearish and the markets bounce yesterday was just that unless proven otherwise by the tape staging something more that a 2 day rally.

This morning we have futures slightly positive. Crude is down a little and so is nat gas. Interest rates continue to hover not far off all time lows in yield. The dollar is rallying especially against the euro.Nothing on the corporate news front this morning and no upgrades or downgrades.

Wednesday, May 16, 2012


Mlps are a little higher this morning thanks to dead cats bouncing in an overall messy tape. The stock market is now reacting to news of bank runs in Greece and the ECB threatening to cut off funding to some Greek banks. So its pretty much a mixed picture in mlp land with fractional moves in either direction and no real standouts. About the only supporting action is, in of all places, nat gas which has rallied 25% from the 1.95 bottom and we are now up over 2.50. Overall though the dow is up just 20 points after being up 60. Crude is down another buck at 92 dollars. Afternoon trading should be fascinating as the Euro obsession perhaps drives people to at least keep an eye on the exit doors.

Going to be college shopping for the next few days which is a frustrating exercise in picking out which school gets to suck my checking account dry. 

Monday, May 14, 2012

If the mlp chart was regarded as the leader on the rally that began in December 2008 for mlps and ended January 23, 2012, then its been sending ominous signals for the last 3 months and right now with a 3 point loss on the day, we are sitting at 380 which marks important support in my view and we are just ticks from breaking through that support zone. Its important because it came down to that level back about a month ago and rallied back above 400. That rally failed so now we watch closely for the dam to break this afternoon.

The dow chart meanwhile has put in a double top and we watch this 12,700 level which also looks very dicey and may breakdown here as well. The dow is down 100 at 12,723 right now. Euope is the driver and it looks like they are circling the drain overseas in a big way. And they are apparently going to take us down with them.

A few folks sent me some notes regarding JP Morgain and their recent trading debacle. Some are wondering whether this is Lehman and 2008 all over again. The Lehman unwind brought the mlp index down to 145 in almost cataclysmic fashion. That wound up being a lifetime buying opportunity. At the time Lehman held large postiions in many mlps which had to be sold in a down tape at any price. This made for a blood bath. I dont see the similarities here between Lehman and Morgan. For one thing mlps are now pretty widely owned and no longer thinly traded like they used to be. And while JPM made a big boo boo its not the kind that bring the entire bank down. If it did, i frankly dont think it would matter what you owned..the outcome would not be pretty.

The mlp index as i type is now below 380. Copano (CPNO) is the biggest loser down 1 and change after losing nearly 4 dollars late last week on a not so good earnings and outlook. Energy Transfer Equity (ETE) Atlas Energy(ATLS)and Cheniere (LNG) are also shedding a 1 point and some change each.

Wednesday, May 09, 2012


Okay so maybe its overstated but we are approaching 380 on the mlp index after yesterday's multipoint loss we are sitting just above it this morning in a soft overall tape. So we will watch this level carefully. If this goes than it seems 360 would be the next logical stop for the mlp index. This drop is coming with the 10 year yield approaching its record low of last September of 1.71%. We are at 1.80% as  of this posting. That 10 year move down in yield is coming thanks to Europe and its absolutely endless crisis.

This morning we have Markwest (MWE) down 2 points on an equity offering  so thats going to weigh a bit on the mlps index. No other mlp news on the tape this morning and no upgrades or downgrades.

Buckeye Parnters (BPL) has been in the dog house for quite awhile as the chart indicates and it has gotten even uglier in the dog house lately thanks to last week's earnings report which by any measure was messy and from a dcf standpoint was not good. I have a piece on this on  and will post the link as soon as the story hits.

Monday, May 07, 2012


Both charts above are speaking to us this mornng in some fashion. Friday's dismal employment numbers pretty much re-enforced the idea that the economy is going no where fast as the workforce continues to shrink. The mlp chart topped in January and mounted a rally recently from 380 to 400 but it appears that 400 is the new wall as the index got turned away from there. Now as markets sell off we will watch the 380 level on the mlp index to see if that goes because if it does get taken out, it is a sign that a downturn has begun that may last for awhile. And i think this would of course be coupled with the overall market making a move lower. 12700-12800 is the level to watch there.

This morning we are seeing Barclay's and UBS cutting their price targets on Buckeye Parnters (BPL) which has been sinking since its' earnings report last week. It and Nustar (NS) have been the 2 weakest mlps among the large mlps out there and they have had a bit of an impact on the mlp index. Stock futures this morning are lower but they are well off the overnight session lows as Europe is moving markets after elections. Crude is down under 100 and lower this morning but also if its lows. Nat gas has moved solidly above the 2 dollar level and sits at 2.32 this morning. That 2 dollar level might be visited for a retest at some point.

Tuesday, May 01, 2012


Mlps are up today but lagging a little behind the excitement in the rest of the market. We are up fractionally here with most mlps up fractions. No big movers today one way or the other. We just seem to be extending yesterday's move which came off the Energy Transfer (ETP) buyout of Sunoco (SUN).

I have been writing some pieces for for the last 2 months and i want to share them with you. I've had my hands full with so many things lately so the blogging has been a touch light. There is a whole mlp section there that everyone should take a look at.