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Friday, October 31, 2008

Atlas Energy Resource (ATN) extends its gain to nearly 3 points. The mlp index is up to 224.50 and up over 2.60 on the day. Looks like a nice finish to what has been a very good week.
MLPS have turned higher as we follow the dow which is now up nearly 200 points.

Atlas Energy Resources (ATN) leads the winners list up 1 and change. News out at 12:57 on Marcellus Shale production which apparently going well. Buckeye (BPL) Alliance Resource (ARLP) and Inergy Holdings (NRGP) showing 1 point gains.

Both Crosstex (XTEX,XTXI) are down nearly 3 points each on the payout cuts. Hiland (HLND) is down 2 but no news there and they are ex-distribution today. Fractional losses in Eagle Rock (EROC) Hiland Holdings (HPGP) Linn Energy (LINE) and Atlas Pipeline (APL).

Dow up 224 and MLPS up 1 and change now.
Crosstex (XTEX) is bidding 14.50 x 16.50. No trades. XTXI is 10 x 13.03.
CROSSTEX CUTS!


This is going to be an interesting day for MLPS on a couple of levels. Aside from the day to day push and pull from the market we have the dreaded distribution cut. Crosstex Energy LP (XTEX) and Crosstex Energy (XTXI) are cutting the payouts. XTEX goes from 63 cents to 50 cents and XTXI from 38 to 32 cents. The company says its implimenting a strategy to increase liquidity and it will also sell non strategic assets. The company says hurricanes impacting the second half by 25 million. No surprise when you look at the charts as they have fallen off the cliff but what hasn't.

The question for me is the market reaction. How much of all this is already priced in? We saw what happened to Atlas Pipeline (APL) when Citigroup downgraded the other day on the idea of a distribution cut down the road. Before the cut Crosstex was yielding over 17% and the new yield is down around 13%. In normal credit market times we could say its priced in. So the reaction here could be a good lead indicator of how much distribution cuts are already priced into mlp prices.

Last night i took a look at Point and Figure charts on a few mlps and got a surprise. A few of them have turned bullish including the MLP index which has an upside target of 330! And among the bullish chart patterns...Constellation Energy Partners (CEP) which has an upside target of 19! Oh glory...let me start spending my money now!


Boardwalk Partners (BWP) has been in an uptrend off its lows and the company has gone to Loews Corp (not the home depot competitor...the other one) and getting money for stock. The company has done this before. Was it easier for Boardwalk to go back to the Loews well instead of the banks given credit market conditions?

Nothing on the upgrade downgrade list yet. Stock futures are lower this morning coming off a nice gain yesterday. Crude and energy is selling off as 60 dollars is the next wall. Interesting developement in that energy is having trouble moving higher with stock prices. We'll watch that closely. It's probably the stronger dollar which continues to gain.


Thursday, October 30, 2008

Dow up over 200. MLP index up over 8 points.
Oneok (OKS) up over 4 dollars leading the way higher as we head into the final hour. The mlp index has broken above 220 and now sits at 222.
Here is an encouraging 1 month chart of the MLP index as we begin to tackle the moving average resistent. MLPS near the highs of the day as the index fights that 220 reistence but as long as the overall market remains firm i think we are going to break through that today.
220 on the mlp index looks like the short term resistence. We went up to it and have pulled back slightly. I expect another assualt and a break above it for the close. This rally may have some legs to it and the dow can go to 9700 which was the last rally high off that 900+ point gain from Columbus day.

Sunoco Logistics (SXL) Holly (HEP) Williams (WPZ) and Hiland Holdings (HPGP) are the biggest losers today...all down fractions to a point.

Winners include Oneok (OKS) up 2. along with Buckeye (BPL). Energy Transfer (ETP) Enbridge (EEP) Natural Resource (NRP) EV Partners (EVEP) and Plains All American (PAA) up 1 and some change.

Atlas Holdings (AHD) is back over 10 dollars and Atlas Pipeline (APL) up a few pennies. Atlas Energy Resource (ATN) is holding up pretty well through all of this and is up 2 points from a few days ago. Atlas Holdings (AHD) does have a piece of ATN which might mitigate any issues from APL...off course this assumes a whole lot of negatives over the next 15 months in terms of the oil price as noted by Citigroup yesterday.

Dow up 150 right now...holding its own.
Merril Lynch downgrades Holly Partners (HEP) and Williams Partners (HEP) to neutral.
CHART CHECK


The S&P chart is rallying off that extreme low and the bounce right now has taken us back to around 9000. It looks to me like this bounce has some teeth to it so it may go for awhile. The MLP index has had a better bounce so far as it is well above its extreme low of 152...now around 215.

We are actually moving above the 34 day moving average which if it holds has potential bullish implications down the road...a very long road maybe but its something to pay attention to if we are beginning some sort of process of building a longer term bottom.



Nothing showing up in headlines this morning but last night E V Partners (EVEP) made it official as it upped its distribution to 75 cents. In the past the company has mentioned its intention for future quarters but no mention this time. Might mean something...might not.

Atlas Pipeline holders (APL,AHD) might still be reeling this morning from the Citigroup downgrade which btw somewhere here mentioned on the comments board in a broad context of a distribution cut. Would have saved a few points of pain if you sold on that post. Lets hope for a bounce today. Nothing on the upgrade downgrade list so far this morning. Crude is higher and so is nat gas ahead of nat gas numbers. Stock futures are sharply higher ahead of GDP which should show contraction and jobless claims which will probably soar over 500k. Yesterday the market sold off in the last 10 minutes on some weird comments from GE which were later straightened out. We were +200 before they hit the wire and stock futures take us back there this morning.



Wednesday, October 29, 2008

You have to love Ass-ociated Press calling the Atlas (APL) haircut today a "dip"!
Thank GE for making comments 5 minutes before the close so we had another one of those days where we went from +150 to -120 in a matter of minutes. MLPS sold down into the close but still finished 3 points higher on the index.

Atlas Pipeline (APL) and Atlas Holdings (AHD) finish a little off their lows on the Citigroup sell recommendation and a target price of 14. (Its just about there...might have been nice if they warned us at say...50...or 40...or 30! But they were telling us to buy the stock at that time.
Atlas Pipeline Partners (APL) and Atlas Holdings (AHD) are down nearly 3 points each with Atlas Holdings (AHD) the bigger percentage loser. There is some sort of citi-group report on the yahoo board saying that Citi is downgrading Atlas Pipeline Partners (APL) to a sell due to the price of crude dropping below 60 dollars could put the distribution at risk.

Now here is the Yahoo profile

Atlas Pipeline Partners, L.P. and its subsidiaries engage in the transmission, gathering, and processing of natural gas. The company primarily provides natural gas gathering services in the Anadarko, Arkoma, Golden Trend, and Permian Basins in the southwestern and mid-continent United States and the Appalachian Basin in the eastern United States. It also offers natural gas processing services in Oklahoma and Texas, as well as provides interstate gas transmission services in southeastern Oklahoma, Arkansas, and southeastern Missouri. Atlas Pipeline Partners owns and operates a 565-mile interstate pipeline system that extends from southeastern Oklahoma through Arkansas and into southeastern Missouri; 7,870 miles of active natural gas gathering systems located in Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Texas; and 1,600 miles of active natural gas gathering systems located in eastern Ohio, western New York, and western Pennsylvania. Atlas Pipeline Partners GP, LLC serves as the general partner of the company. Atlas Pipeline Partners was founded in 1999 and is based in Moon Township, Pennsylvania.


No where in here do is see any mention of crude oil exposure unless he means the the drop in crude will keep nat gas prices low. Anyone have light on this can please share it. It would be appreciated.

MLPS approaching the 220 level up 7 and some change. Thats where they got turned around the last time.

Magellan (MMP) is up 3. Natural Resource (NRP) Energy Transfer (ETP) Sunoco Logistics (SXL) Hiland (HLND) Copano (CPNO) Oneok (OKS) all up 2 or more.
Clearly someone is unwinding a big position in Atlas Holdings (AHD) and Atlas Pipeline Partners (ALP). They are standout losers today...no news except announcing their earnings date. They have already announced the distribution.

MLP index up nearly 5 points extending yesterday's gain.
MORE WILD RIDES!



I know a lot of you were complaining about the rally (or lack there of ) in MLPS yesterday but i would expect it play catch up today. This has happened many times lately. And there are no negative drivers today so we'll take it through the open and then wait for the oil numbers and then the fed. Crude is playing catch up this morning up 4 dollars. Nat gas and gasoline are higher as well. They did not rally yesterday with the market. Stock futures are well off their lows and are basically flat this morning.

Exterran Partners (EXLP) boosted its distribution last night by 4 cents. Buckeye Partners (BPL) put up earnings last night and another distribution increase. No other news and no upgrades or downgrades so far.

There are some end of year pension fund and mutual fund distortions going on which may be playing into why some mlps moved up yesterday and some did not. Markwest (MWE) and Atlas Pipeline (APL) among others have been under some pressure lately and that pressure did not come off yesterday. No news headlines driving this that i could tell.

Tuesday, October 28, 2008

Dow up nearly 700. MLP index up over 5 and back near the highs of the day. There are a lot of mlps down 1 point or more today which is unusual given the gain but there must be some sort of final unwind going on somewhere. Look to see if those mlps pull even toward the close. But in the past when this has happened we tend to play catch up tomorrow.
Dow up 400 now so it looks like the rally is getting uncoiled and rolling in here. Now it needs to spread out across the board. MLP index now back up 1.30. Some distortions today i think due to last day for mutual funds to sell stocks for their year ends Friday and they get a Friday settlement.
MLP index now flat...and the dow up only 125. I smell a rout developing.
Rally doing the slow fade here as we were up 300 on the down and 7 on the mlp index and then came consumer confidence and we are now up 170 and up only 2 on the mlp index. The tape has such a heavy feel to it that it makes it hard to imagine we are going to hold this. But we can't give up hope...or can we?
EARNINGS EARNINGS EARNINGS
(and maybe dead cats are bouncing)




Lots of numbers this morning starting with Holly Partners (HEP) posting earnings. Teppco (TPP) also puts up numbers and speaks to next years projects and capital availability. Sunoco Logistics (SXL) put up earnings last night. Buckeye Partners (BPL) should be posting at any moment.

We have Steifel Nicholas coming out on Copano (CPNO) with a buy recommendation. Stock has a bid at 20 in the premarket. Also bidding higher is Boardwalk (BWP) where Deutche Bank is telling us we should buy that one as well.

Now to the dead cats as we have a rally this morning which undoes the 200 point decline in the last 15 minutes of trading yesterday. I'm continuing to argue on the side of a tradeable bottom at 7880 so ideally we'll take a trip down there this morning at some point...probe...and then reverse. (They should only listen to me)

MLPs will follow along. The libor rate continues to come in and that continues to provide support as 200 is holding here. At least we are diverging from the broader market.

Monday, October 27, 2008

Down 5 points on the MLP index at the close. Some news items as Atlas Pipeline Partners (APL) announces its distribution and also announcing is Atlas Pipeline Holdings (AHD).

Dow sold off 200 points in the last 20 minutes. We've only had 4 up days this month. Look like a trip below 8000 seems inevitable...but maybe we're setting up for the final collapse.
Certainly feels like some sort of bottoming action today but we've been down this road so many times these past months..who knows! The mlp index is down 1 point right now as the dow came off up over 200 points to going minus 30. Now back up 50. You can't blame anyone from drinking heavily through all this.
Down 4 then up 1 then down 2...moving with the overall market today which is well off the lows..was down over 200..then up 60...then down 120...now down 30 as of this post.

Martin Midstream is a 1.40 winner. Otherwise some fractional gains in Alliance Resource (ARLP) Buckeye (BPL) Calumet (CLMT) Penn Virginia Resource (PVR) and a couple of others.

Legacy (LGCY and Markwest (MWE) Boardwalk (BWP) and Atlas Resource (ATN) are down 1 or so each among the bigger losers.

Market has a feel like its trying to put in some sort of floor for a tradable rally.
MONDAY MORNING AND
THE WORLD HASN'T ENDED!
.....YET!



The climax awaits!

Friday looked like we are going straight to the abyss and we managed to avoid it. Now we have another sharply down open which will take us to the lows of 2 weeks ago rather quickly so we are getting that retest this morning. I continue to hope we can have that one big mega-flush and if it comes i'll be waiting. For those of you buying into this, in my view, one should ladder orders and even put in a few "silly" bids, say 5 points or more below the market...and see if you get lucky.

Some earnings out this morning as Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP) puts up numbers and affirms guidance. The company calls its results "solid" which probably won't mean much in this mess. On the other hand note that while the broad market has moved back to its lows MLPS remain solidly above those lows. Now it could be due to the thawing in the credit markets however small or it could be due to the fact that ex-distribuion dates are rapidly approaching so a big distribution is going to be paid..supporting prices at least until the ex-distribution date. Earnings out this morning also from Boardwalk Partners (BWP) which look okay on the surface. But as a sign of the times note this quote.

To date the expansion projects have been financed with a combination of equity and debt issuances, borrowings under the Partnership’s $1.0 billion revolving credit facility and cash from operations. In October 2008, the Partnership borrowed the remaining available capacity under the revolving credit facility, which increased total borrowings to $958 million, reflecting the failure of a Lehman Brothers’ affiliate to fund its portion of those borrowings. In addition, to complete the expansion projects, it is anticipated that as much as $1.0 billion in additional equity will be required and that these funds will be raised by issuing limited partnership units. In light of the ongoing turmoil in the capital markets, the Partnership’s largest unitholder, Loews Corporation, has advised the Partnership that it is willing to provide the required equity capital if external funds are not available on acceptable terms.


I wonder if these companies would even be able to do an offering of units in this mess. There hasn't been an ipo done in many weeks. Who is going to want to take units. So it pays to have a sugar daddy!

Nothing on the upgrade downgrade list Crude touched 59 bucks overnight and remain under pressure. Stock futures as we said earlier are sharply lower but at least its not limit down. Get set for another rocky day. And remember...if you have to or want to buy in this enviornment its best to ladder your way in.

Friday, October 24, 2008

Closing with buyers as the MLP index is up nearly 3/4 of a point!
Nailed the first race in the pick six on the Breeders Cup with a single...Ventura!

And MLPS are now unchanged on the day index wise!
Final hour on an extraordinay day which when you look at the numbers on face value its looks like its ho-hum! MLP index down less than 2 points as the market has been trying to firm as the last hour began. But things are very fluid in here for sure.
MLP index almost unchanged as we head into lunch.
Its been kind of stable after the open. A few mlps are actually up albeit small fractions like Natural Resource Partners (NRP), Alliance Resource Holdings(AHGP) and Kinder Morgan (KMP).

Losers of 1 and 2 points not uncommon in the likes of Oneok (OKS) Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP) Nustar (NS) and some others.

I don't know...its down but not disastrous.
We ran limit down as predicted and we are 100+ points above that now. MLPS are rallying off the days low. We were at 201; now at 206.
Spiders down 82 S&P points as of this post.

Hiland LP and GP (HLND,HPGP) announce distribution hikes. And we have a distribution announcement from Marin Midstream (MMLP).
THE FINAL AND LONGEST FLUSH!







This particular flush is pretty long...and it looks like its the final climax here. Will it be over this morning? Will it occur over a few days? Not sure but given what we are looking at here shopping lists should be ready to go. Of course many of us if not all of us are out of cash.
Okay so lets see. We have limit down stock futures. Watch the Spiders (SPY)as they are still trading and they are at minus 67 S&P so when the limts come off we could be lower than this. MLPS are off course going to be down at the open and we have some 2 point losses in the premarket on a number of issues like Kinder Morgan (KMP) and Oneok(OKS).
In corporate news Targa (NGLS) is boosting the distribution. Also Hiland Partners (HLND) has gotten paid from Semagroup which is chapter 11 land so their exposure has been reduced to a small amount.
Okay...lets hold hands and work through the open. Just noticed Gold has come off its low under 700. Crude Oil is down 4 dollars as OPEC cuts production. Gasoline Futures under a buck and a half!

Thursday, October 23, 2008

Kinder Morgan (KMP) got the Cramer goose on Mad Money as Richard Kinder was the guest. The stock closed at 50.51 and is up 1.50 after hours.

The more i think about it the more it looks like another hedge fund did an mlp unwind today. Could be the reason why there are bids around above the ny close in after hours.
We closed well off the lows as the Dow rallied by the end of the day. The mlp index came all the way back to down 2 on the day. The index traded in a 15 point range today.

Magellan Midstream and Magellan Holdings raises the distribution again. They like the 1/4 cent there at Magellan.

Noticing some MLPS catching bids above the 4pm close in after hours. If this is a typical reversal pattern we will play catch up tomorrow. Also Buckeye Holdings (BGH) traded above the 17 dollar tender offer in afterhours. Its one 2800 share trade and it could be the greater fool theory...we'll see.
Everybody's been pretty quiet today!
Dow down 250. MLPS down over 8 points now as we are decending into that final climax!
Noticing yields on the shortest of short term treasuries have been dropping again indicating credit market tightening again...could be the reason why mlps reversed the way they did. Also nat gas is taking gas today. Lots of volitility.
From being up nearly 5 to now being down nearly 3. They are moving them around for sure. And we may be at the cusp of that final capitulation plunge in the overall market.
We briefly went back to yesterday's lows and then stopped going down so it appear we have a good start today. The MLP index is up 4 points and has gotten back 80% of yesterday's decline.

Hiland LP (HLND) is up 2 as is Inergy Holdings (NRGP). 1 point winners include Natural Resource Partners (NRP) Atlas Energy Resource (ATN) and Alliance Resource (ARLP).

Nustar (NS) has come back to the flat line after being down 1 and some change as earnings news gets digested. Enterprise (EPD) is up on its earnings by 50 cents. And Markwest (MWE) is up even though they said there would be some impact on DCF given market conditions.
Nustar (NS) puts up those record numbers. You can hear yawns from miles around! And if its record numbers for them its record earnings for Nustar Holdings!(NSH).

Stock futures selling off to the lows of the day after jobless claims. It could get ugly!
TAKE A DEEP BREATH!



And then hold it for awhile as we await the outcome of this S&P chart. We are testing last weeks panic lows and stock futures are lower this morning. If we breakdown from here who knows what the next stop is. 800? 750?. Or are we going to see another one of those rip your face off reversals? Place your bets ladies and gentlemen.

MLPs have on the other hand not revisited the panic lows...not even close to that 152 bottom from 2 weeks ago (was it two weeks ago? Its all meshing into one long day) and we seem to be trading a bit better in here. I think as long as credit spreads continue to thaw...we will see relative outperformance.


News items this morning as Energy Products Partners (EPD) puts up earnings which have some hurricane impact. Duncan (DEP) also has earnings that are a penny shy of estimates but that seldom has any weight in our little group. And file this under 1/2 a penny is better than none...Suburban Propane (SPH) boosts its distribution by half a cent. Nustar (NS) which already preannounced record numbers will be posting this morning at some point. Goldman is raising Buckeye Partners (BPL) to neutral from sell..and it downgrades Buckeye Holdings (BGH) to neutral. Buckeye Holdings has a $17 offer on the table.

Crude was up earlier and is now flat. Stock futures as we psoted earlier are lower but off the lows and way off the highs. Gold is nearing 700 bucks as we just continue to see assets deflate. Jobless claims at 8:30 am will set the tone.

Wednesday, October 22, 2008

Correction on the Markwest distribution increase...it was a 16% increase year over year but it was only a 1 cent increase quarter to quarter...sorry for the error. Its what happens when i spend too much time in the fresh air.
Sorry for the lack of posts today but i spent the afternoon at the racetrack. Didn't make any money there either.

Some news today with a big distribution boost for Markwest Energy (MWE)holders. Also we have a distribution boost for Plains All American (PAA) and Boardwalk Partners (BWP). So at least the news continues to be good from MLP land.

Buckeye Holdings as a 17 dollar offer on the table and management will be meeting to figure it out. These days a bird in hand is worth 2 in the bush. Somebody sees value at these prices and that is a small sign of hope.

The mlp index was down over 5 points today but this was the kind of day 2 weeks ago that would have been down 15 or 20 points or more so i consider it a victory. The thawing out in the credit markets is helping here while the overall market is now shifting focus toward the deep recession it sees going foward. We live from day to day here and tomorrow might bring an entirely different outcome. But for now...I can't say i'm too unhappy with today's action.
Watching the markets deflate here with the dow touching minus 400 pretty quickly this morning...now minus 342. MLP index down about 7 points. Its funny how you get use to these moves.

Buckeye Holdings up over 2 dollars on the tender offer. Most mlps are lower with some 1 to 2 point losses in Martin Midstream (MMLP) Natural Resource (NRP) Nustar (NS) Oneok (OKS) Holly Partners (HEP) and some others. Crude taking a 4 dollar hit right now before inventory numbers.
BUCKEYE HOLDINGS
GETS A BID



News on this came after the close yesterday as Buckeye GP Holdings LLC wants to buy back the public stake at 17 dollars which is about 30% above yesterday's close but as you can see its way below the peak prices of the bull run. In fact this price is almost back to the IPO price of a few years ago.

If you bought this at the bear market low 2 weeks ago...rejoice! If you are a holder from much higher prices...maybe some gnashing of teeth is in order.


The rally in mlps stalled out for now at 220 and we pulled back less than 2 points yesterday while the dow dropped over 2%. And futures this morning are selling off along with the entire energy complex. Crude is down over 2 dollars and under 69 bucks. Gasoline @ 2.99 here in the peoples republic of the state of NY.



Not much happening otherwise on the corporate side and no upgrades or downgrades so far this morning. The credit markets continue to heal slowly which i think is bullish for mlps as we see these ridiculous yield spreads slowly begin to tighten. We will continue to see mlps outperform broad stocks and big energy stocks in my view as long as the credit markets continue to improve. And remember when i say outperform it only means that we will be down less if markets tank.

Belmont Park's pick 6 today has a carryover of over 1 million dollars so i plan to head there later today to try to relieve them of their burden. Post time for the first race is 1pm.

Tuesday, October 21, 2008

TENDER OFFER FOR BUCKEYE GP HOLDINGS!


Sellers just came in around 3:20pm and sent the down quickly back to the lows of the day and MLPS moved with them. The index went from being up 2 to being down 2 in a hurry. Not sure what caused the sell off but you got to love volitility!
The mlp index is now up 2 points and rallying! Glory!
The mlp index is now higher after being down 3 points. The dow has cut its losses as well.
video

This is a Morningstar piece on MLPS...hat tip to lee for it and i hope Morningstar doesn't mind that its on my blog.

One thing we have to start watching for is relative outperformance. If the market is planning to sell off to retest that Dow low at 7880, we need to see strong resistence to that selling. So now we watch and the clock ticks.

The mlp index is down about 3 points as the down touches 9000 and its down 250 right now. There are some winners today. Natural Resourec Partners (NRP) is up 1.50. Also up 1 and change is Linn Energy (LINE) Sunoco Logistics (SXL) is up a little more than 1 point. And we have fractional gains in Inergy (NRGY) Hiland (HLND) Calumet (CLMT) Buckeye (BPL) and DCP Midstream (DPM). Some of this is catch up from yesterday.

Kinder Morgan (KMP) is the drag on the mlp index and its down a little over 1 point. Inergy Holdings (NRGP) is down 1 after being up over 5 yesterday. Others showing fractional losses but nothing catastrophic.
LINN SETS THINGS STRAIGHT

Linn Energy was "cramerized" last night and it was a good thing. The stock traded up over 2 dollars above the close. The bottom line is that the distribution is 63 cents for the quarter. The company is hedged for future quarters. And the point was made last night that Lehman had a fund that was invested in MLPS that was completely unwound during the rolling crash. And that unwind is now done!

Maybe the end of that unwind is why we are up nicely for 5 of the last 6 days. From the 152 intraday low to yesterday's close we are up 70 mlp index points or almost 50%! And many mlps have doubled off their crash lows like Holly Partners (HEP) Inergy Holdings (NRGP) Penn Virginia Holdings (PVG) among others.

Buyers have control here but given the volitility and that we continue to be in the land of big numbers large swings are likely to continue in here so keep the dramamine handy.

Goldman Sachs is cutting Holly Partners (HEP) from buy to hold probably because of the 100% price move from 2 weeks ago. Stock futures are a little weaker this morning after yesterday's 400 point dow gain. Crude is down a dollar this morning. Nat gas is up a few cents. Credit spreads continue to come in which is bullish for mlps as credit markets slowly thaw out.

Monday, October 20, 2008

Linn Energy getting a big Cramer goose tonight as the CEO clears up some issues. Stock up over 3 dollars for the day including an extra 1.50 in after hours!
Today is really one of those days where you look at mlp prices and ask yourself why you did not have enough guts to buy Tortoise Energy Infrastucture when it had a 7 handle just few trading days ago. Take a look at TYG now! Holly Partners (HEP) got to 14.90. The list my friends is getting longer.
Just broke above 220 on the MLP index and up nearly 15 points.
14 point gain on the MLP index as we close in on 220 and at the highs of the day which is always nice. Inergy Holdings (NRGP) Holly Partners (HEP) and Oneok LP (OKS) all up 4 points or more at this juncture and lead today's long list of winners.

One thing about volitility is yeah they are down big but they are also up big. Still a long way to go but better than where we were 2 weeks ago.
Lunchtime and we have a 5% 11 point gain on the mlp index as the dow struggles around 9000 although its up by about 140. Oppenheimer is calling a bottom on energy stocks as it upgrades a whole slew of them at these prices. Mlps not among anyone of the blessed but we are not only going along for the ride but we are actually up the same as big oil and gas on a percentage basis.

Kinder Morgan (KMR) is up 3 and Oneok (OKS) up nearly 3 are the midday leaders. 2 point plus signs in Holly (HEP)Sunoco Logistics (SXL) Plains All American (PAA) Kinder Morgan (KMP) Buckeye (BPL) and Enbridge Energy (EEP). Crosstex Energy (XTEX) is up nearly 2 points and thats a big percentage gain there.

Losers are few and not showing much downside. Looks like we make try and take 'em higher this afternoon as volitility comes in a bit.
JP Morgan is feeling neutral this morning on Oneok LPM(OKS) as it begins coverage on the stock. Nothing like making a commitment.
MAYBE A BRIGHTER
WEEK AHEAD?


Always the optimist here if credit spreads are starting to come in and with volitility still coming off extreme levels we may have a shot here for a good week with the wild swings that will continue to go with it. The MLP index sold off late in the day with everything else Friday but still managed an 8 point gain and an up week. We have lots of headroom and the charts at least short term are pointing to higher prices within the context of a bounce.

The dow chart is also indicating that we can have some upside this week again within the context of a bounce. The moving averages are sitting just above 10k and decending at a fairly rapid rate. Still we have headroom to work with.


We will begin to see earnings and additional distribution announcements coming this week but nothing on the board this morning. Nothing yet on the upgrade downgrade list but it is early. The energy complex is up as it continues to move with the stock market; stock futures are higher this morning.

Finally...Cody was cold this morning and i had the blanket!


Friday, October 17, 2008

If the current political situation interests you...read this and prepare to be frightened! Thanks to the WSJ.

8 point winner today on the MLP index which was off the highs. Market sold off in the last hour as the volitility continues to be nothing short of spectacular. Still i thought there was a better feel to the tape for the most part. Now the question is will we need to go back down and retest that 7880 intraday low?
Up 13 points and climbing here. We may actually close near the highs of the week!
Up nearly 12 points and its the first time in a long time where it feels like something more than a bounce.
Closing in on a 9 point gain on the MLP index and near the highs of the day. Coal MLPS are extending their gains.Alliance Resource (ARLP) and Natural Resource (NRP) are up more than 2 points each along with Kinder Morgan (KMP).

Atlas Pipeline Holdings (AHD) continues to sink and is under 12 dollars. No news here but the action is not good with everything else in the group rallying. OOPS....it has just turned higher by a nickel.
Looks like they are shrugging their shoulders on the Copano distribution increase (smaller than usual) and the stock is up nearly 1 point.. MLPS are higher by 4 points on the index as they as usual play a little catch up from yesterday and big energy pulls back a little bit. Dow down by about 100 which so far is not bad and they can't seem to take 'em down today at least so far.

Coal mlps showing the way higher with Alliance Resource (ARLP) and Natural Resource (NRP) both up over 1. Also seeing 1 point gains in Oneok (OKS), Atlas Energy Resources (ATN) , Trans Montaigne (TLP) and Williams (WPZ).
ANOTHER FRIDAY AND
MORE VOLITILITY!



400 UP...700 DOWN...1000 PT daily ranges. Its the new normal. And MLPS doing the same sort of thing albeit in a more dignified lagging sort of way. There are some encouraging technical signs showing up these last few days (i know its hard to imagine) but we have higher lows, increasing volume coming in on these rallies. Its a start at least.

Copano (CPNO) raises the distribution by a penny which is less than what they've done in the past blaming hurricane IKE issues. The company which has always had a high coverage ratio says the coverage ratio due to IKE is lower than what they would like;but they also hint that this is a one time thing. I don't know if this has any impact since the market seems to be the primary driver anyway.

Atlas Energy Resources is announcing their hedging positions. Looks like they are hedged at 9.00 nat gas for 2009. We have a 6 handle right now.

Nothing on the upgrade downgrade list. Oil is a little higher and so is nat gas. Another day...another wild ride.

Thursday, October 16, 2008

The overall market is making a stand today as we went all the way down to8198 and has been making higher lows since and it seems like it wants to rally in here. At the low we wiped out Monday's gain and thensome. The MLP index is a little wierd today on that misprint 206 close so it shows it down 15 when in reality its down about 3. Crude is down over 4 dollars but big energy stocks have stopped going down (as of this post).

Inergy Holdings (NRGP) is up 2 on its distribution boost. Holly Partners (HEP) is up 1 and changed and has almost doubled off its panic low last week under 15. Got over 29 earlier today. Alliance Resource Holdings (AHGP) and Penn Virginia Holdings (PVG) are fractional winners along with Kinder Morgan (KMP).

I went long the Double Long Oil and Gas (DIG) which is only 100 points off its high.
Be advised that there was a closing price error yesterday which showed the mlp index at 206 and some change unch from the day before. Todays reference point for the open is around 195.
BOTTOMING PROCESS?



We are getting pulled back and forth in this horror show and yesterday's huge loss is not seeing followthrough this morning. Futures were very weak overnight but they have been strengthening slowly all morning. So maybe the market wants to go up this morning.

MLPS yesterday took a hit of 12 points but it was big energy that crashed with a nearly 15% one day decline. Still we held up a little better than everything else and if the market bounces today...so will we.!

No corporate developements this morning and no upgrades or downgrades. The energy complex was down with stocks overnight but since they are linked at the hip these days crude has come back to the a less than 1 point loss. So bring on the open.

Wednesday, October 15, 2008

It use to be down days was great for blog page views but the crash has begun to drive down page views. Maybe no one wants to endure pain on a continuous basis.

This guy on CNBC likes MLPS. I wish CNBC would let us bloggers embed video into our post. I would link to them more often if they did.
Okay its official....$1.02

Also Duncan (DEP) delivers. These days a penny means something.
TALK ABOUT CRASHES!


Take a look at these 3 charts of oil (USO) natgas (UNG) and Coal (KOL) and they all continue to circle the drain especially coal which is down almost 75%




Meanwhile the dow rallied from Friday's intraday low around 7800ish to almost 9800 yesterday. That was over a 20% move in less than 3 trading sessions. We've had years that weren't as good as those 72 hours. Now we've given back almost all of Monday's gain and we could be down to last Friday's low in as little as another down session. And we've had a crash today in big energy stocks as the Dow Jones Oil and Gas Index was down 16% today. That index was @ 775.83 back last May and its down nearly 400 points.

And yet as someone pointed out on the comments board earlier today we are so jaded that the market drops 700 points and no one bats an eye. CNBC anchors on Power Lunch today made the same observation.

My doctor today who has no investment knowledge (he's been in cash since late last year so ignorance here is absolute bliss!) told me today he's going to put some money in the Prudent Bear Fund. Sign of a bottom? S&P down over 40% in the last 12 months.

God knows what awaits us tomorrow. Today was nothing short of absolute liquidation. Who knows how long it lasts.
I figured no point watching it today as the selling resumed and we have now given back 2/3rds of the dow rally but the MLP index has not given back all of its gains from the low. 152 to 216 back to 195 so the index is given back about 1/3. The dow jones oil and gas index (DJUSEN) is down 13% today so big energy is having another crash sell off. There are a few winners today believe it or not. Quicksilver Gas (KGS) is up 1.30. Fractional gains in Calumet (CLMT) Martin Midstream (MMLP)Hiland Holdings (HPGP) Quest Energy Partners (QELP) and Cheniere (CQP); the last 2 are under 10 dollars...way under! Also Quest is noting that a director is selling shares to meet a margin call.

Plains All American(PAA) Oneok (OKS) and Penn Virginia Holdings (PVG) are down 3 points or more and are the biggest losers.

We've just broken through the lows of the day as we head into the close on both the dow and the mlp index.

Not much fun blogging during all this bloodshed.
UP 2 IN A ROW!

Look of the scope of this rally which in 3 days has taken us from 152 to 215 or a 64 point move. If you look back at the move from October 2006 to August 2007 you had a similar point move that took 9 months to complete. Yet when you look at individual unit prices we remain deep in the hole.


Not a pretty picture this morning in futures as they continue to weaken ahead of some important numbers this morning. S&P down 15 points. Still i like down opens better than up ones in the current enviornment. Crude Oil is down to 75 dollars off almost 3 bucks with gasoline @ 1.80 as we head to a 2 handle at the pump. Yesterday the market traded in a 700 point range and look for another potential wild day.

Amerigas is hosting an anal-ist day and is announcing 2009 guidance. I'm not sure what this means since i don't have anything to compare it to. And i'm not sure what it means given the market since the news could be good and the stock could go down or the opposite is possible.

Merrill Lynch is upgrading Capital Products Partners (CPLP) to a buy which should put a bid underneath this stock. Not much else going on this morning. So we wait 8:30 PPI and retail sales which potentially could be a negative number. Fasten your seatbelts for another day on the roller coaster.

Tuesday, October 14, 2008

We finished with a nice 8 point gain today while the overall market sold off but closed off the lows of the day. Another huge range...over 700 dow points.
Not a good sign if the market can't put 2 up days in a row; i don't care how big the rally was yesterday. Being down 200 points here and weakening is telling us its a dead cat bounce and not much more. MLPS still holding on to gains but giving back. The index is up just 4.50 right now. Holly Partners (HEP) was up over 5 as the biggest winner today.
MLPS are doing better than the overall market. The index is back up to +10 after correcting down to 205...now back to 209. The dow is going back and forth over the flat line. Was as high as +300 and as low as -100 so the volitility continues.
Looks like the curse of the three day rally is rearing its ugly head in the general market. If you start it from the 7800 low on Friday we're up 1900 points to the top today and it looks like we are selling into it. MLPs lag this but will follow along most likely. Off the highs of up 16 points...now up about 10.
Considering Nustar told us weeks ago they were going to have a record quarter, it should be no surprise to see a 7% increase in the distribution to 1.07. And for the GP holders (NSH) a 19% increase is announced this morning.

Looks like the dow opens up 350. Where we go from there is anyone's guess but they like the government plan to buy perferred shares in banks among other things.
Kinder Morgan is up 4 in pre market trading. Lots of bids above the close in many mlps this morning.
THE DAY AFTER


The psychology of the markets is such that we all seem to want to sell the rally. And that defensive posture seems wise given what we have been through. Still the day after the big rally will start strong with S&P futures pointing to a 4% upside open as of this post.

And as expected MLPS bounced very hard yesterday up over 300 points and we should move above the 200 level. What stands out to me yesterday is that you had these mega moves of 4, 5 and 6 points in prices and that still leaves us so far below what anyone would consider normal yield levels. To say we have a long way to go is an understatement.

No headlines in MLP land. Friedman Billings is downgrading Legacy Partners (LGCY) to market perform from outperform. Second downgrade this week after Goldman cut it yesterday. Energy is up. Interest rates are up which is a good thing. Now we wait to see if we can put 2 back to back 90% up days.


Monday, October 13, 2008

Huge 20 and 30% gains holding as we head into the last hour. I'm just not sure what it all means if anything. If we see volitility drop over the next few months it might be nice to see MLPS go into some sort of long sideways basing period. I don't think a "v" bottom is useful longer term.
A one day gain of 21% which if you bought Friday you are in great shape...or if you are like every body else...dead cat bounce. Up 34 points on the MLP index to just under 200.

You gather my tone isn't exactly a happy one and this is because this bounce is long overdue and not a surprise considering the huge losses since September 1st and particulary since October 1st. I expect your accounts are all up huge today. But skepticism abounds.
We're up 23 points on the MLP index which in the context of everything going on is really no big deal but better than a down day or a sharp poke in the eye. Kinder Morgan (KMP) leads the way up 5 dollars.Oneok (OKS) and Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) are also up 5. Nustar (NS) Magellan (MMP) Enbridge (EEP) Natural Resource (NRP) and Sunoco Logistics (SXL) are up 4. Buckeye (BPL) Enterprise (EPD) Boardwalk (BWP) and Trans Montaigne (TLP) Plains All American(PAA) and Buckeye Holdings (BGH) are up 3. Constellation (CEP) Atlas Pipeline (APL) Alliance Resource (ARLP) Copano (CPNO) and Inergy (NRGY) are up 2. No mlps are down although there are a handful with only fractional up moves. They usually are the last to move higher in these types of moves and will probably play catch up later assuming the market and the mlp index continue to build on strength.
ITS DEAD CAT BOUNCE DAY!




Did you think it was Columbus Day. No. Today is the day dead cats bounce off the pavement after last week's drop off the Empire State Building. An absolutely fabulous chart below illistrates a drop of over 60% from the top last August. Its a long long way to 200 let alone 342 but the bounce here will be sharp and fast. 20 or 30 mlp points not out of the question.


A few things will provide tailwinds today. We have a Barrons piece this weekend touting MLPS. We have the overall market rallying sharply and in bounce mode. And we have Goldman stepping up and upgrading Kinder Morgan (KMP) Magellan (MMP) and Enterprise (EPD) to buy from neutral. All are bidding up in the pre-market with Kinder bid up 2 dollars. They are also cutting Regency (RGNC) and Quicksilver Gas ((KGS) to neutral from buy. Friedmann Billings is cutting Legacy (LGCY) to neutral from buy. Cuts to neutral make so much sense here after the stocks have been cut in half.

No other corporate headlines this morning. MLPS have been all either announcing distribution increases or pre-announcing that they intend to raise their distributions in the next 2 weeks. So we know for the most part everything is okay for mlps this quarter. Crude is up as it continues to trade with the stock market; up 3 dollars and back over 80. Nat gas is also up about 12 cents. The dollar is down against the Euro but up against the yen as confidence returns to equities for at least the next couple of hours.

Credit markets are closed for the holiday today so we don't know what the reaction will be to all the action taken by governments this weekend both here and abroad. Lots of stories available on the Wall Street Journal web site. Some free, some not so check it out. Corporate headlines as they break this morning.

Sunday, October 12, 2008


A Sunday afternoon of football and a nap!

Saturday, October 11, 2008

Barrons has a positive piece on MLPS. Its has been posted in the comments section from yesterday but it can be viewed from the Barron's web site. Many of the other feature pieces are available as well for free.

Friday, October 10, 2008

THIS ONE'S FOR LOU!






Regular reader and occasional poster "lou" suggested this video as we close a week which i think was more like staying at this bed and breakfast. (squemish should be careful!)





And of course you might disagree but lets not have an argument!




After the week we've had i think we should all have a good weekend.
Another day...another crash! A wild morning that was just dizzying. The dow opens down 700 points and then the most violent rally i've ever seen takes it to plus 81 shortly after 10am. And then from there its back down minus 400. The MLP index moved along in the same fashion from down 12 to down 2 and now back down 12. The big hits today are in the MLP funds like Tortoise Energy Infrastructure (TYG) which is down 7 @ 9. Kayne Anderson MLP fund (KYN) is down over 4 points @ 14. Large percentage losses as selling is forcing fund selling.

A few more MLPS have pre-announced distribution increases as Inergy LP (NRGY) hikes by a penny to 63.5 cents or 2.54 annual on a 13 dollar stock. 20% yield gives you the stock for free in 3 1/2 years. Penn Virginia Resources (PVR) and Penn Virginia Holdings (PVG) hike their distributions and say they are okay through 2009. PVG traded down to 8.78 this morning. Inergy posts its outlook for 2009 assuming there is a world left by then.

Dow is down almost 500 points as we head into the last 2 hours of trading.
LINN ANNOUNCES BUYBACK



The rolling crash continues this morning and after markets worldwide collapsed last night. And stock futures here are down but off the lows. Actually the dow futures overnight were down 300 points...as of this post down 170. All kinds of rumours out there on what might happen. President speaking at 10:30am.

Linn Energy (LINE) announces a 100 million dollar unit buyback so we're talking something on the order of 5-10 million units being purchased depending on price. It also is selling land in Woodford Shale for 229 million. The buyback can't hurt if someone out there case or if prices ever stop dropping.

It was good to see more MLPS coming out with distribution hike news early. It probably was key to limiting losses yesterday to just 8 points (4+%) as compared to the rest of the market and that disaster in big energy stocks. But there is still a rather lengthy list of mlps that have remained silent. Its time to speak up.

No other news so far this morning and no upgrades or downgrades. You have markets open but banks closed Monday for Columbus Day. You have a G-7 meeting this weekend. Not that any of that matters. Confidence is so shattered right now. We may need JP Morgan himself to come back from the grave and buy something because nothing has worked. Lets try the hereafter!

Thursday, October 09, 2008

I won't link to it because its a Barron's premium service and it requires a $795 annual subscription...but they are featuring MLPS at "firesale"prices! Yo DUH! You don't have to tell us. We've known that for months and in the meantime the entire building has already burned down.

Futures remain sharply lower as Asia is getting torn apart with 5 to 10% declines.
Asia is collapsing. Toyko is down 10%. Dow futures down 200. S&P futures are down 25 points.

oh boy!
I spent the day in church. It was confirmation and i sing in the church choir so i got to miss the 675 point disaster that evolved. A number of companies after the close made announcements. Oneok (OKS) increases the distribution to 1.08. Teppco is increasing their distribution. Magellan (MMP) affirms outlook and anticipates a distribution increase. Losses in MLPS today down 7.98 on the day which is better than what the overall market did. And take a look at the destruction in the big energy stocks today.Exxon (XOM) was down 9 dollars!

Here is the good news. At the current rate the dow jones industrials will be at zero in 15 trading days. And at that point it will be a buy!

Hey kids, at least we'll get distribution checks a month from now!
The dow has just turned down which i think may be a good thing. There is so much doubt that no one that now we can't rally for more than an hour or so. This may mean that we are setting up for a much better rally. So don't lose hope yet.

MLP index still up about 7 at this point.
Up nearly 9 points on the MLP index in the early going which was really a no brainer dead cat bounce open. Now lets see if it gets extended as the day goes on.
BTW the bailout bill had something in it for MLP's! The link is the actual text of the bill itself that impact MLPS. This is courtesy of the National Association of Publicly Traded Partnerships. All of you out there should have this page bookmarked.
KINDER & ENTERPRISE HAVE SPOKEN
NOW WHERE R THE REST OF YOU?



Yesterday we saw MLPS collapse and crash in a breathtaking 15% decline in the first hour and a half of trading. Remember these are not tech stocks. It used to take 2 years to see a move of that magnitude. Then Kinder Morgan which was down 7 dollars at one point came out and said they plan to increase their distribtuion to 1.02 from 99 cents and that began an equally breathtaking turnaround. Enterprise Products Partners (EPD) then followed by actually annoucing a distribution increase about 2 weeks earlier than normal. The buying spread out to other issues and by 3pm the mlp index actually turned higher by almost 2 points or an almost 20% move from the low of the day. Given the historic conditions we are experiencing we unit holders need to know whats going on. So you CEO's, CFO's and Investor Relations people out there; It is time to speak. You owe it to your unit holders to say something about current market conditions and the impact on your companies. Many MLPS have seen haircuts of 20,30 even 40% in some cases since Monday! We all understand these are extreme conditions and there are many things going on that have nothing to do with your day to day operations. The great Lehman unwind continues for example. Hedge funds that own MLPS are selling into a vacuum. Speak to us about the distribution. Tell us if you are seeing any impact from the frozen credit markets. Tell us about the quarter or future quarters if you are not in quiet periods. But for God sake's say something!

Some dizzying yields out there this morning. Atlas Pipeline Partners (APL) is priced to yield 19.50%. Now think about what that means. Assuming the distribution doesn't increase over the next 4 years. At this price the distributions pay for the stock in less than 4 years. So in four years your cost basis is zero. Some other yields out there.

Kinder Morgan...9.5%......7.5 years

Oneok............ 10.0 %..........7.2 years.

Nustar....11.4%...........6 years

Buckeye..11.5%....6 years

EV Partners..20%....3.6 years.

Linn Energy...20%..........3.6 years
Another way to look at this is if credit markets normalize one day many of these stocks could easily double in price from here. But when that day comes...and it could come next decade...is anyone's guess.
Since declines like this haven't occured since the '87 crash and the crash of '29 the market is certainly due for an oversold dead cat bounce and this morning futures are certainly setting up for a higher open. And we don't have any new bank failures to speak of so far today. So maybe some calmness is setting in for a few hours. No corporate developements this morning and no upgrades or downgrades.
Given the magnitude of the MLP decline nothing short of a 20 to 25 point up day would be acceptable. Maybe we'll get that today or in a couple of days of trading. You can't drop 15% in 6 trading sessions (as measured by the DOW) and not have a bounce. A few small MLP up trades in the pre-market but nothing overally meaningful

Wednesday, October 08, 2008

Kinder Morgan was down 7 dollars at one point today. Its now up nearly 2 dollars. A nine dollar one day swing in an MLP....something you don't see in normal times over six months. But these are not normal times.

Fingers crossed as we head into the close.
The mlp index has just turned positive.

Glory!
The mlp index has just turned positive.

Glory!
The mlp index is now down less than 1/2 a point after being down 25.
Enterprise Products Partners (EPD) is following Kinder Morgan's lead today as it announces a distribution increase. The MLP index has gone from -25 to -2. Natural Resouce Partners (NRP) is up 2 and change.Constellation Energy Partners is up nearly 2 points. A number of mlps that were down 3 to 5 points have now turned fractionally higher.
Kinder Morgan comes out and says it will likely raise its distribution to 1.02 next week. The stock has rallied about 4 points from the lows of the day.

Dear CEO's CFO's I.R, of MLPS,

I know many of you read this blog and for that i am extremely flattered. At this point it might be a good idea to give your investors and the market some clues about guidance and distributions. Your stocks have been give a 50% hair cut...in some cases its come since last Wednesday. Maybe a clue about your access to credit markets might be helpful as well.

Just a suggestion...follow Kinder Morgans lead.
BLOOD IN THE MLP STREETS!


Down 15% in about 2 hours of trading. The index has now down more than 60% off its highs and its down nearly 33% just since September 1st. Down 25 points to 152. Cheniere Energy Partners(CQP)is up 42 cents for some unknown reason but that is it.

Now for horror. Enbridge Energy Partners(EEP) is down 7. Kinder Morgan (KMP) is down 6 and change.Amerigas (APU) Oneok (OKS) Buckeye (BPL) and Sunoco Logisitics (SXL) are down 5. Nustar(NS) Plains All American (PAA) Energy Transfer (ETP) Magellan (MMP) Suburban Propane (SPH) and Hiland Partners (HLND) are down 4. And on and on and on.

Some note worthy prices. Crosstex Energy (XTEX) is under 10 dollars. Hiland Holdings (HPGP) has fallen from 21 to 9 in 5 trading days. Buckeye Holdings (BGH) is under 10 dollars. The GPS have been massacred. Some mlps have seen already depressed prices cut in half in the last few days. Note also that there are some volume spikes in Kinder Morgan,Enterprise and a few others today which indicates perhaps more hedge fund unwinding and they are doing so with no buyers in the market place at all. At face value the move to me is discounting distribution cuts. Are we going to get the hikes or will we begin to see companies hold back on distribution hikes in order to save cash.

Since i started this post we've gone from minus 25 to minus 22 on the mlp index. The overall market is desperately trying to rally and there is still time to mount a violent comeback this afternoon.
GLOBAL RATE CUT!



The cry for a global coordinated rate cut was loud and clear. A 50 basis point rate cut was announced at 7am by the US, Canada, Europe, and others. The market reaction was interesting as S&P futures went from -28 to +30 on the announcement...then they sold down to only +5 and now we are slowly building back to +18 as of this early post. So there are skeptics out there which is good. Kids if this can't give us at least a one day bounce then we should just hang it up.

MLPS are going to move with the markets so look for them to open higher. Beyond that its anyone's guess. The energy complex which has been moving in line with the markets are down this morning but off the lows. Gasoline futures were trading with a 1 handle for the first time in what seems since the reign of Nero! I would love to play this potential rally today but the market has sucked my cash down the drain along with everyone elses. No corporate developements and nothing yet on the upgrade downgrade list.

Frankly i think today has the potential to be the scariest day yet; if the markets fail to rally on this rate cut then as i said earlier...it may very well be over. But on the otherhand maybe its that feeling in and of itself that will bring the buyers back in.

The clock is ticking!

Tuesday, October 07, 2008

Ugly earnings from Alcoa (AA) as they bunker down. And that means more market selling i fear.

One thing about MLPS...we are at the point now where they could rise 100% and in many cases still be far short of their 52 week highs.
Looks like we're headed for another new low. I hate to think we have to go 150 on the MLP index.

The old adage of Sell Rosh Hashannah...Buy Yom Kippur...might be at play here in which case the bottom will be tomorrow or Thursday.

Dow down 420 right now. MLP index is nearing 177 down almost 13 points.
When (or if) the bottom ever comes in MLPS we're all going to be standing there staying " i wish i had spare cash to buy up shares at these levels" but i suspect most of us have long been tapped out. Too bad today wasn't the day distribution checks hit...at least we could buy up shares with that cash. I also take solace knowing that no matter what i had invested in I would probably be in the same place or perhaps worse.

Save me a spot on the soup lines! I think we need new leadership. And here is who i recommend!

Dow is near the days lows down 375 and MLPS now down over 10 and below yesterday's lows.

Hiland Holdings (HPGP) is @10 bid down nearly 4. And Hiland Partners(HLND) is down nearly 4 2o 22 and change. No news but trading like its going out of business. When you watch the trading there are no buyers and it takes a small amount of volume to move some of these down 2 points. Problem is there aren't many points left!
Down 7 points and near the lows of the day. The fed minutes are out and the dow has just rallied from the lows of minus 350.


At this stage of the game. You are almost better off taking lottery tickets on Semagroup LP (SGLP) and US Shipping (USS). Provided they don't disappear altogether there are not many ticks left here. And Michael Dell continues to buy up shares of SGLP.


Nustar (NS) down nearly 3 as the biggest losers but some GPs are down to give-away prices. Hiland Holdings (HPGP) is down nearly 50% in 3 days. Honest to God if somebody told me a year ago we'd be down here i would have said...the only way we get there is if the entire financial system melts down. Glory!

After a brief rise the dow is down and the mlp index is also down by 1.50. Nustar (NS) is the biggest loser down 1.75. Also seeing sizeable losses in gp's like Nustar Holdings(NSH) Penn Virginia Holdings(PVG) Hiland Holdings(HPGP)and Buckeye Holdings (BGH).

A few winners on the list like Oneok (OKS) which is up 1. Alliance Resource(AHGP)Natural Resource (NRP) Boardwalk (BWP) and Amerigas (APU) among the fractional winners.

Lots of nervousness around today. I'm actually kind of glad we're not seeing a big rally right off the bat as it would be just another rally to sell into.
95 POINTS FROM
TOP TO BOTTOM



An astounding move really in the last five weeks. 95 points or 33% in mind boggling speed. 8 point one day down moves on no news. Historical times we are seeing here kids.


Some pre open bids showing up so it appears we are setting up for some sort of rebound. Stock futures are mixed this morning but we have energy prices rebounding . No corporate developements. No upgrades or downgrades. I suspect that if markets rally today on rate cuts or rate cut hopes,we should be able to get back 1/2 of yesterday's losses.

Btw i stand corrected as i went back to the long term chart and yesterday took us back down to early 2004 levels and not 2000 that i posted. Its still miserable either way.

Monday, October 06, 2008

I think that pretty much sums it all up! Off the lows at the close with the MLP index at 190 and a few ticks. Dow rallied back in the last hour from minus 800 to minus 355.
Mind-boggling moves today with the dow down 800 points and the mlp index dow 33 points or nearly 16%! Hiland Partners (HLND) is down nearly 10 dollars. Oneok (OKS) and Kinder Morgan (KMP) are down 8. Buckeye (BPL) is down 7. Magellan (MMP) Nustar (NS) Inergy Holdings (NRG) and Sunoco Logistics (SXL) are down 6. Holly (HEP) Plains All American (PAA) Enbridge (EEP) Penn Virginia Holdings (PVG) and Hiland Holdings (HPGP) down 5. Hiland Holdings is down 28%. Markwest (MWE) Energy Transfe (ETP) Amerigas (APU) and Inergy (NRGY) are down 4. And so on and so on and so on.

The corporate bond market has come to a complete standstill today. No trades. Everyone wants protection and no one can get it.

Last hour coming up...prepare for a crash.
Oneok is down over 8 points right now. Dow down 540. MLP index down 32 or 15%! A full blown market collapse is underway here. Sunoco Logisitcs (SXL) down 7. Nustar (NS) Holly (HEP) down 6. Buckeye (BPL) Inergy Holdings (NRGP) Plains All American (PAA) down 5.

As i post the dow is approaching a 600 point loss. Up down volume at unheard of extremes...250 to 1 ratio. 1 stock on the new high list. (Wrigley!).
Everyone enjoying themselves? Dow down nearly 400 points and well below 10k. The MLP index is down 12% @ 188. Oneok (OKS) and Kinder Morgan (KMP) are down 6 points apiece!
MLP index is down 20 points and at 194! The dow has broken below 10,000 which i suppose is no surprise. Oneok (OKS) is down 5. 4 point minus signs in Energy Transfer (ETP) Kinder Morgan (KMP) Sunoco Logistics (SXL)and Plains All American (PAA).

Nothing is up.
MLP index about the pierce through the 200 mark. 190 is on the horizon. Big lossers across the board.
THE ABYSS!




We start Monday morning in the black hole. Markets imploding Friday afternoon have set us up for a potentially disastrous Monday. The dow is headed for a 9 handle and the S&P 500 contnues its decent into hell.






Watch volume in this sell off which might be setting up for another one of those powerful reversals at some point; perhaps tomorrow. If we fall below 10k on the dow it will probably set off panic. Crude is down 4 dollars and under 90 bucks. Gasoline is headed for 2 dollars in the futures. A 2 handle on gasoline! And no one will have money to afford it. MLPS go along for the ride of course. I think 190 on the mlp index brings us back to the first breakout back in late 2000-2001. 6 years of upside will have been completely undone. And given the current market conditions is it possible that some MLPS might pass on distribution increases this quarter in order to preserve some capital? Yield spreads are headed to 1000 bps or more in many cases.

No corporate developements and no upgrades or downgrades so far.

The market in my view is making a transition to the reality of a deep recession. And that means asset prices will continue to deflate.

Friday, October 03, 2008

The bill has passed...and outside of the fed pulling the trigger this afternoon which i can't imagine they would do...look for a sell-off.
Up 6 points on the mlp index which is 60% of yesterday's loss of 10 points. Not bad so far.

I have to meet with my accountant to find out how much money i don't have.
HOPELESSNESS!



That's the way it feels this morning out there. Dead cat bounce at the open for the overall market and we await the vote on the bailout package. Frankly speaking I think the dragging out of this legislative event has made things worse and my expectation is that the market will roll over and sell off after a rally off the news..assuming it passes. And if it fails then the DOW will have a 9 handle and MLPs will follow as the MLP index hurdles to the 190 level...which would take it back to a level not seen since early in the decade.

Cramer gave a nod to a few mlps last night and they open higher this morning like Linn (LINE), Kinder Morgan (KMP), and Enterprise Products Partners (EPD). The index is up 2 points and back over 220. Dow up 100 at this moment. Crude is down this morning. Nothing on the upgrade downgrade list and no corporate developements.

Thursday, October 02, 2008

Well does anyone out there have any money left? Frankly when you see the carnage across the tape i believe that the passage of the bill will make little difference to what is going on. Frankly it looks bleak and getting bleaker. I think the economy is in shambles and it may take a long time for things to come back.

MLPs closed down 10 points to 218. Maybe we'll get a dead cat bounce from the passage of the deal. If it goes down again...get ready for a crash.
Down 6 points on the MLP index at 222. 1.50 to 2 point losses today in Penn Virginia Holdings (PVG) Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP) Atlas Energy Resource (ATN) Hiland Partners (HLND) Natural Resource (NRP) and Williams Partners (WPZ).

Take at look at Exterran Partners (EXLP) which is up 50 cents today as one of the few winners and take a look at Exterran Holdings (EXH) which is down from 70 to 26. Unbelieveable. And even more unbelieveable is the plowing under AG shares are getting today . Potash (POT) has gone from 220 to 95!

Dow just ticked dow to minus 299.
Now that everything is open we're down about 3 points on the mlp index with the dow down 170. Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP) is down 1 plus as the leading loser. Williams (WPZ) Natural Resource Partners (NRP) and Kinder Morgan (KMP) among the major fractional losers.

Not many winners this morning and most of those are up just small fractions or unchanged.
DOUBLE BOTTOM?





I don't know. I put it out there. I observe...you decide! Still we didn't go below 220 the other day and we had every chance to. If this is all about the seizure of credit is the action pointing to perhaps the beginning of the end of the crisis part of the crisis?

No news of consequence this morning and no upgrades or downgrades. The market has just opened down about 75 points on the dow. The mlp index is down a little less than 1 point as they open them up for trading and work out the first trade distortions that occur. Nat gas is up this morning while crude is down. The one month t-bill is yielding 0.62% and the 3 month at 0.82%. Conditions remain very tight but off the extreme lows in yields.

Wednesday, October 01, 2008

MLPS actually doing okay in here as we are at the highs of the day...up over 2 points on the index while the dow is going sideways. Actually the dow would be up were it not for IBM being down 9 points providing the drag.

Outside of the Crosstex pain Atlas Energy Resources (ATN) Holly Partners (HEP) and Hiland (HLND) are all down 1 to 2 points among the losers. Magellan (MMP) Oneok (OKS) and Nustar (NS) continue to lead the winners list up 1 to 1.50.
Dow at the flat line with Buffett doing a deal for GE similar to what he did with Goldman. MLPS nearing the highs of the day and nearing the 228 level.
The mlp tape when it was down 3 points had a feel of a reversal and indeed it has reversed and turned higher by 1.50. The leaders are Magellan (MMP) Oneok (OKS) and Nustar (NS) all showing 1 point plus gains. The Crosstexes (XTXI, XTEX) are down 3 and 1.75 respectively as the biggest losers although both are well off their lows of the day.

Its the market dog wagging the mlp tail but being higher is always a good thing.
I don't know the basis for the Goldman downgrade on Crosstex (XTXI) but its down 4 and Crosstex (XTEX) which i do not see a downgrade for. Still XTXI is down 4 to 20 and XTEX is down 3 and change to under 15!

MLPS down about 3 points as the dow hits minus 200.
Goldman Sachs cuts Crosstex (XTXI) to a sell. Stock is down nearly 4 dollars.
AN END TO A HIDEOUS QUARTER





From 270 to 225 on the MLP or over 20% down for the quarter and actually just about all of that drop came during September. It is the worst drop for mlps possibly ever seen. I can't find a stretch anywhere on the long term chart that equates to the crash we've seen in this group during the last quarter. September 2008 was certainly a blood curdling for us. And now here we go with a new month, new quarter, and the financial world continues to spin out of control.

One of the issues going foward for mlps will be how to grow with limited or no access to capital. Either you go out there and do deals by issuing equity...which is dilutive and will drive prices lower...or you grow internally; that is you have or own well capacity to drill and bring product to market. And what about distribution growth. The ability to grow payouts just doesn't matter right now as we have seen. Yields on mlps continue to hover near all time highs. At some point this all gets priced in but i'm afraid given market conditions i'm afraid we are not there yet. The next cycle of distribution announcements will be coming in a few weeks.

New month and new quarter but there is no news out there this morning and no upgrades or downgrades. Yesterday's nearly 6 point dead cat bounce was just that...a dead cat bounce. Market conditions continue to be stressed so we go where the rest of the market goes. Stock futures are lower this morning. Energy futures are flat to a little higher with inventory numbers out later. Note that yesterday's 485 point dow rally takes us back to where the market was around 1:30 pm Monday...right before the gasbag vote in the house.

I yearn for a week where the dow trades in a 100 point range and finishes unchanged. My hair hurts and my teeth itch.