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Friday, May 28, 2010

HOLIDAY WEEKEND!


Summer commercially gets underway this weekend and i will be part of it with a getaway. Sorry for no posts yesterday but it was one of those days where i had my hands full. Clearly a very good week and a very good 2 day run here up 13 points on the mlp index and 300 is once again in sight. 285 dow points and we have higher futures this morning.
The first chore is to get above the moving averages which lie just above us . If we're in a new downtrend they wil serve as the wall but if we can get above it, I think we will be setting the stage for a mvoe to new highs.

Nothing much happening this morning otherwise. Got to hit the road. Enjoy the weekend!

Wednesday, May 26, 2010

MLPS running with both engines firing on all cylanders. Index up over 9 points and well ahead of the market as investors looking for solid yields. Leaders from earlier adding on to gains with 2 point plusses now in Alliance Resource (ARLP) Buckeye (BPL) EV Partners (EVEP) and Sunoco Logistics (SXL). Not a single mlp is down today.
MLPS REBOUNDING BIG AND
OUTRUNNING MARKETS!




Nice day with a 3% gain in MLPS and of course well ahead of the overall market with the dow up a little less than 1% so its nice to see the relative outperformance continue. 3.25 on the 10 year and any kind of appetite for risk drives money to yield and thats what we're seeing today. Oneok (OKS) is up 2 and change. Alliance Resource (ARLP) Sunoco Logistics (SXL) Nustar (NS) Buckeye (BPL) Plains All American (PAA) DCP Midstream (DPM) and a few others up 1 to 2 points. Nothing on the losers list and there are some large percentage moves in the under 10 dollar crowd.

Sorry for the late first post. Gearing up for a weekend away and running errands this morning.

Tuesday, May 25, 2010

Down a little over 5 on the open which if you ask me is not as bad as i would have thought given the dow down 250. One way to look at this is that MLPS have no European expousure ( duh!) unless you want to stretch the point of the euro economy collapsing and causing ours to do so and impacting everything somehow. I dont know but that view to me is so extreme that if it were true, there wouldnt be too many places to hide.

Lots of 1 point losers like Inergy Holdings (NRGP), Martin Midstream (MMLP) Sunoco Logistics (SXL) among others. Most mlps down fractions to 1 point. No winners on the list this morning.

Dow down 210 and off the lows.
A VERY HARD OPEN!



Never fun waking up to futures down hard but indeed they are. MLPS yesterday were up all day long until the last 20 minutes when the drop dropped and mlps went negative for the day. Still it was relative out performance (down less) and the lows continue to hold however tenuously. This morning's open takes us right back down to near the lows of this move (flash crash intraday lows). Its Tuesday so there's always hope for one of these Tuesday turnarounds..although statistically im not sure there is anything significant here. So we'll open down on the lows and then look around and see if the world is actually ending.

Williams (WPZ) will be swallowing up Williams (WMZ) and form one. Never quite got the dual mlps here but they will become one. My guess that it wont have much impact on price of either mlp as they will both be down at the open. The exchange is roughly .75 WPZ for each share of WMZ so roughly at the current market price. Nothing much else going on this morning corporate wise sor far. No upgrades or downgrades that i can see.

Crude is down 2 bucks with markets down as they are. Metals are down. The dollar is strong across the board. Rates are down in a flight to relative quality. Another fasten your seatbelt morning ahead of us.

Monday, May 24, 2010

Looks like the washout theory is working this morning as the tape has firmed up nicely and flat on the dow. MLPS are up a point or so index. Most mlps are showing gains for the most and fractional in nature. Alliance Resource (ARLP) is up 1 as the biggest winner.
AT ANOTHER CRITICAL JUNCTURE!





Friday morning's bottom and subsequent 125 point dow rally, mlp up 5 plus, came right off not only the flash crash bottom but notice its also at the February low. The dow around 9800 and the MLP index at 275 are huge and this morning starts in the red so it looks like we will be probing around for some footing. Holding here is huge otherwise there are support lines every couple of hundred points below. I'm also concerned that a break here today or tomorrow is part of a five wave downtrend which is alot more serious and potentially very damaging. But before we get to suicidal here, i havent given up hope yet. Besides down opens can sometimes wash out sellers and leave the buyers in charge after an hour or so. Lets hope.

MLPS will be moving with the tape of course so its a down open here. Nustar (NS) got the cramer goose on Mad Money Friday so there may be some Monday morning buyers at the window...if they can remember that long. No news this morning to speak of and no upgrades or downgrades in MLP land. This is the last week of may and next weekend is the Memorial Day holiday weekend so traders may have that in their heads this week. Precious metals and the dollar are up this morning, rates on the 10 year continue to rally, and energy is lower but not by much.

Sunday, May 23, 2010

Sunday evening stock futures are down sharply following lower opens in Asia. S&P down nearly 10 points but its Sunday night thin trading.

Friday, May 21, 2010

Looks like we tested and held the intra flash crash lows so the logical thing is to rally and we are. UP 4 plus on the mlp index with most up fractions to a point. Alliance Resource (ARLP) is the biggest winner.
DOW UNDER 10K


Looks like a down open under 10k on the dow. Yesterday we broke below 200 day moving averages decisively and the market is extremely oversold. A rally of a vicious nature is coming (several hundred points) but who is to say it comes from here or 500 points lower. Simply put..it doesnt look good right now and the charts look increasingly bearish for the next number of months.

No news this morning on the corporate side. No upgrades or downgrades. I dont think it matters any as the market is driving everything. The dollar is selling off this morning. Stock futures were higher overnight but are now sharply lower again. Crude is down, nat gas is up. Euro stocks are down. 10 year rates which just recently broke above 4 percent are now sitting at 3.15! Not pretty.

Another morning where i think a long walk is in order.

Thursday, May 20, 2010

The blood bath continues. MLPS down less than 10 but at least off the lows. Dow down 254 heading into lunchtime and under 10,200. Nat gas has turned higher believe it or not and Gold is now down just a couple of bucks. My sense is there will be a serious rally attempt this afternoon.

No need to go into specifics. Everything in mlp land is down pretty hard and there isn't a plus sign to be found.

Talk about important support the 10 year is where it has to hold. If it breaks here below 3.20 its a sign that the world may be going up in flames again. No one wants to go back down to that 2.10 10 year.

MLP index down 10..dow down 200..let the blood flow. 1 TO3 point losses pretty much across the board for the big boys...similar or larger percentage losses for the under 15 dollar group. Let the blood flow.
DO OR DIE TIME




Ok boys and girls stand by for a huge technical test. The Dow Industrials and the MLP index went down to the 200 day moving average which held yesterday and the market bounced from the lows. Now this morning we have what is looking like a big down open by over 100 points. I like sharp down opens as this has the opportunity to wash the sellers out if it comes on big volume. However we are at a serious trend line test. Up until now corrections in this uptrend have come in 3 wave moves. Take a look at the dow chart from back in Feburary. If we dont hold here im afraid to say that the uptrend that began in MLPS back in December of 2008 and in the rest of the market in March of 2009 could be O V R!!! If the bottom and the trendline hold in here we could be on the verge of a vicious rally from being deeply oversold. If that happens we will then look at what i call "THE CURSE OF THE THREE DAY RALLY" which is doomed to failure. So all kinds of possibilities lie at our doorstep this morning as we watch Europe burn up.

Stock futures as we said sharply lower along with gold, energy, and foreign currencies against the dollar. MLPS have no corporate developements but there is some premarket action in a few mlps like EV Partners (EVEP) and Linn Energy (LINE) which are down in scattered trades. Guess a few people saw some bids and took them. Nothing on the upgrade/downgrade list this morning that could be supportive to any individual name.

I think this is a morning for me to head out for a long walk and let the markets burn without me for awhile. BTW thanks to the man who hit the tip jar yesterday. A nice cigar is waiting for me and i appreciate it.

Wednesday, May 19, 2010

The 200 day is holding as the index has come off the low and is now back over 281 down about 10.

Down nearly 13 with mlps getting blown out of portfolios. Dow down 180. Buckeye Partners (BPL) and Alliance Resource (ARLP) are both down over 3 dollars as the leading losers. Lots of 2 point losers strewn across the wreckage. Everything is down. S&P 500 broke the 200 day here which cause the selling to accelerate. Not good here boys. The MLP 200 day is at 279.27 and we are here!!!

If the attention is on Europe, the euro is now rallying strongly up over 1 cent at 1.23 and some change.
Ugly out there. Down over 8 and we are near the flash crash closing level. Most mlps down 1 point or more. Alliance Resource (ARLP) among the biggest losers down nearly 3. UGH!
LETS TRY THIS AGAIN!



Yesterday's idea that a tradable bottom is in went out the window by lunch time and we closed 100 points down and the mlp index closed down 3 points plus. Futures were much lower this morning but have come back since 8:30 thanks to friendly CPI data and a dead cat bounce in the euro. The market tale is wagging the mlp dog so we will be at the mercy of the swings.

No news and no upgrades or downgrades this morning and no corporate developements. We seem to be in one of those quiet stretches for the group. So lets see what the day brings us. I still think the flash crash low is the climax low and we're probing around in here to get some footing to restart the rally. But the key will be whether Europe and the rest of the world can manage not to descend into a full blown crisis.

Tuesday, May 18, 2010

Gyrations back and forth after the initial up push. MLPS were up over 4 and now up about 2. Most of the big boys are fractionally higher.

Its not where they start but where they finish today so watch the last hour carefully.
MONDAY LATE REVERSAL PUTS US HIGHER!



Yesterday's trading from a technical standpoint smells of an important short term bottom. Markets were looking into the abyss after the bottom fell out around noon. Then they turned it around in the afternoon for an up dow close. And there is followthrough this morning. I believe the odds are pretty good that the market made a tradeable bottom. Meanwhile MLPS will be playing catch up this morning as the reversal in our group often lags by a day. So this morning we have up stocks. Oil is up 2 bucks. Nat gas is up and the dollar is a little lower. Gold is 20 bucks lower this morning. What we will look for today is a gradual building of strength and hopefully a 100 point or more up close.

MLPS are quiet this morning on the news and upgrade/downgrade front. If this is indeed a tradeable bottom there are some bargains out there in the group. Stock offerings and the general sell off have pulled some mlps 20% off their highs. Nustar (NS) comes to mind here (i hold a small position in the interests of disclosure), Sunoco Logistics (SXL) is another (no position there right now). Not a recommendation here..just pointing out that there have been some nice pullbacks.

Distribution checks have arrived in accounts for the most part. Spend the money well! Stock futures at the highs of the morning up nealy 60 dow points.

Monday, May 17, 2010

Somebody let the air out of the bag at noon and the dow dropped 100 points pretty quickly. Down 176 as of this post. MLPS down 7 and every mlp is down right now. All the big boys are down 1 or more..17 in all showing 1 point plus losses.

Doesnt look pretty out there today. Crude broke under 70 bucks briefly. Trading just above that level right now. The VIX is up over 35 again.
Stock futures have turned lower as we head into the open.
MONDAY MORNING BEGINS HIGHER





Went to bed last night with stock futures sharply lower as asia sold off but this morning i woke to higher stock futures as Europe starts higher. Charts show mlps holding support and trading inside the moving averages, and based on prior moves we should be moving above it in short order. The daily macd may go to a buy again soon so we'll watch that. This of course assumes that this sharp 8-10% correction that began from dow 11,200 has run its course. MLPS correction was more like 15% (more if we include the spike bottom). It seems to me that we are going to hold the lows here.

This morning there isn't much on the corporate news front for mlps to trade on and so far no upgrades or downgrades. The dollar is flat after being higher. 10 year yields are up this morning as the flight to quality trade gets undone..small moves in either case. The energy complex is higher across the board.

Lastly as for Dublin in the Preakness, veering out in the wrong the direction (maybe he forgot to put his bet in) and giving up 20 lenghts at the start is not the way to win a race....and he still wound up 5th. Imagine if he had broke well out of the gate!!!

Thursday, May 13, 2010

Since someone asked....i am pounding the table on Dublin especially with Garrett Gomez now on board. Betting across the board at 10-1 could mean at least some money back if he should finish second or third. Icebox was my horse in the derby.

MLPS opened down..then rallied..and now the index is lower by 1 and some change on profit taking which cant be a surprise after 4 up days in a row.
LOWER OPEN AFTER A BIG UP DAY!



Its a lower open on this Thursday as the MLP index is up 4 days in a row so a pullback is not unexpected. The dow is down about 45 as of this post. Its one of those opens the day after a nice move where profit taking rules the first 1/2 hour and then we'll see which way it goes. The mlp index has cleared most of the support it broke below last week which is another positive as we continue to recover from the "flash crash" and we are now above where we were when the plug was pulled.

Moves are fractional and in both directions this morning. Willams Partners (WPZ) is up 80 cents this morning as the biggest winner. Vanguard (VNR) is down a dollar as an offering of shares is underway. Crude oil down under 74 bucks off 1.60. Nat gas numbers out later this morning.

Wednesday, May 12, 2010

Raymond James cut Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) and Energy Transfer Equity (ETE) from strong buy to outperform while it raises Alliance Resource Holdings (AHGP) to outperform from market perform.

MLPS up just under 4 on the index as we head into the last hour and a half.

Meanwhile a new mutual fund for mlps and guess what...no UBTI if you put it in your IRA!
Dow up better than a 100. MLP index up 3 as the rally gains a head of steam today. EV Partners (EVEP) is up more than 2 today. The stock sold off a little on earnings yesterday but its back over 32. Also we have Alliance Resource (ARLP) up 1.10. Markwest (MWE) and Oneok(OKS) are both up over 1 point. Nice fractional gains among most issues.

Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) is down over 1 dollar as the standout loser today. Otherwise just a handful of issues are off a few cents or so.

Market has the bit in the teeth and it looks like last week's 10 percent ish correction..was...just that and nothing more.
MOVING HIGHER IN THE PRE-MARKET



Overall the market could not hold on to gains yesterday as the volatility settles down but mlps held on to the bulk of their gains closing at 299 and up another 3 points. Thats 3 up days in a row and 2 of those days the overall market was down. So outperformace has returned and no wonder. With 10 year rates down below 3.60, the risk money is rushing back in to grab yield. Stock futures overnight were down 8 points when i went to bed at 2am. They are up 5 on the S&P right now as we approach the open. Gold is trading at record highs this morning as against pretty much all currencies as the realities of Europe are driving people to the hard asset you cant eat!

Don't see anything on the corporate side in the news department this morning. Wunderlich raises the target price of Trans Montaigne(TLP) to 35 from 33 and has it at a buy. Not much else happening this morning from these angles. The dollar this morning is down, 10 year rates are up a little. Inventory numbers for crude are due out at 10:30am. Crude and nat gas are higher this morning.

Preakness draw due out this morning. Having a tough time nailing down a horse. Waiting to see what the morning line odds are before deciding. My inclination is to try and beat Super Saver, the derby winner and perhaps go to someone fresh. More on this later.

Tuesday, May 11, 2010


The index is doing a good job getting back above support lines in a hurry which is a very good sign. Back over 300 now with the index up over 4. 1 point plus gains in Buckeye Partners (BPL) and Buckeye Holdings (BGH) as they lead the parade higher. Sunoco Logistics (SXL) is up 1.70 and is the biggest winner so far today.
Dow now up 50 points and the mlp index is up nearly 4 and approaching 300.
Rally building steam here. MLPS at the high of the day at 299.23 up 3 and change. The dow has gone flat on the day.
Markets are holding up very well this morning with the dow well off its lows and the mlp which opened a little lower and then raced to 299 and a 3 point gain before a pullback. Tape has the feel that the markets will go higher later today.

Regency (RGNC) is up 1 on the deal announced this morning. Oneok (OKS) Sunoco Logistics (SXL)Trans Montaigne(TLP) Nustar (NS) and Buckeye Holdings (BGH) are up major fractions to a point and adding to yesterday's gains. EV Partners (EVEP) Quicksilver Gas (KGS) and DCP Midstream lead the list of fractional losers.
REGENCY AND ENERGY TRANSFER HOOK UP!




Energy Transfer (ETP) is buying 100% of the general partner of Regency Partners (RGNC) from General Electric for 300 million bucks. As always with these things they are never simple and the devil is in the details. They are going to use Energy Transfer Equity (ETE) as the holder of all this. The companies will continue to trade as separate entities. So in the end ETE will be the GP for both ETP AND RGNC. From the press release:

We have been actively looking for growth and acquisition opportunities for ETE for some time,” said Kelcy Warren, ETE’s chairman of the board of directors. “The opportunity to acquire interests in Regency made sense on many levels. Distributions from Regency not only help to diversify ETE, but they also enhance its ability to increase distributions over time by pursuing new growth opportunities at both ETP and Regency. While ETP and Regency will be competitors in the midstream space, they will be run by highly talented management teams that will look for opportunities to work together.”

Conference call this morning at 9am should explain a few things. So far in the pre market there doesnt seem to be much interest on either side and when we've seen these things happen before, its usually met with a big yawn as far as price moves are concerned. But i will keep an open mind.

Quicksilver Gas (KGS) put up earnings yesterday and UBS responds by cutting their target on the stock while keeping it at a buy. No trades yet in the pre market. Not much else happening this morning on the corporate side. The distribution cycle is done and checks will be arriving shortly.

Overall this morning we're seeing 100 points of giveback this morning as the Euro sells off to 1.26 and Euro markets are down the day after the rescue. Dow futures down about 100 points as of this post. Crude is down, rates are down, the dollar up. With volatility stretched moves will remain relatively large here until the bouncing ball settles down with smaller and smaller moves. But this needs a little time to play out so dramamine remains the order of the day. Keep it close by.

The Preakness draw will be taking place i believe today so i will be looking for my horse. Icebox who was the best horse not to win the Derby last week skips this race and heads for the Belmont 3 weeks from Saturday where the 1 1/2 mile distance suits him perfectly. I have some ideas for this race but i want to wait and see how the draw shapes up and of course i will share my thoughts.

Monday, May 10, 2010

Some selling has arrived and we are 100 points off the intra day high here and the mlp index is up 9 but well off its high now. Could be a temporary move as there are nice profits on the table from the morning rise. The close will be key.
Markets pushing up against the highs of the day at 11:30am which is a very good sign that the rally is real. MLP index hit 300 before pulling back to 294 and is now back over 296 and up 1o points on the day. All the big mlps are up 1 point or more with some 2 point gainers in the mix. Buckeye Partners (BPL) and Alliance Resource (ARLP) showing nearly 3 point gains as the days big leaders.

Quicksilver Gas (KGS) is down 1 on its earnigns. Breitburn (BBEP) also put up earnings this morning and its up 60 cents. Exterran Partners (EXLP) is down 36 cents and is the only other major loser of note.
Dow up 405 points and the mlp index is up just about 10 points shortly after the open.
MARKETS RALLY ON THE EURO SOLUTION!



Somehow the Europeans managed to sit down and come up with a plan to try and solve the greek/euro crisis. CNBC has news story here while Bloomberg has this story and here is some video with the story and analysis. Naked Capitalism has analysis from the blog world. And for those of you who want to read something from the alternate universe here is the NY Times piece.



In the end its about waking up this morning to Dow Futures up 400 points (thats with 2 zeros not one after the 4) with Euro markets up 4 to 9% this morning. S&P futures are up 50 points so the initial reaction is that we are going to begin the process of undoing the damage of last week. The question for me is where we finish and whether it continues tomorrow but thats looking way ahead. We know we are going to rally sharply at the open and hopefully this is not going to be one of those reflex one day wonders. One difference from today and say back in 2008 when the world was ending, is that the economy was collapsing then..its not now. And the fear here was that credit markets were about to sieze up again. So we are at a different place today.

MLPS actually did well Friday closing 4 points higher on the index while the markets sold off hard. The risk trade returning will allow mlps to rise and outperform or at least that is my expectation. Some pre market trades in Kinder Morgan (KMP) and Nustar (NS) showing 2 point gains although in both cases as of this post, its only one trade. However many mlps are showing bids 50 cents to a dollar higher from Friday's close. So look for some nice gap ups at the open and then we'll sit back and look for followthrough.

Earnings news this morning from Trans Montaigne (TLP) and Quicksilver Gas (KGS) which look to be in line with market expectations. No other news items this morning. Nothing on the upgrade downgrade list so far. So we wait for the open and see where the day takes us. Crude is 2 dollar shigher. The dollar is selling off. 10 year rates rising as the safety money comes out.

Sunday, May 09, 2010

Friday, May 07, 2010

UP 6 ON THE MLP INDEX!



The day after the big selloff and the MLP index is bouncing today up nearly 6 as the dow pulls back and forth from 0 to minus 100. Early the dow was down 200 plus so it trying to come back. My apoloigies for not being around late yesterday and this morning. The pullback took us to the moving averages on the weekly chart and we remain under support (around 297) on the daily chart. Its probably best the let the day just play itself out as the market pressure continues to come from Europe along with all the other noise. Employment numbers were good but markets for now are focusing on other things.

I will get myself together and post again Saturday morning and get this all summarized.

Thursday, May 06, 2010

BTW what is happening is investors are running away from anything that has high yield and risk which is driving the 10 year yield down and the lower grade junk yields sharply higher..especially in European high yield/risk. So anything that has risk and a bond proxy (rightly or wrongly) is getting sold and sold hard.

Dow has cut its losses in half since 12:04 when Greece passed its austerity measures.
Big flight to quality going on in the 10 year with the yield now down to 3.46% which is the lowest yield in about 6 months. The dow is down about 100. MLPS down 8 on the index and its basically throw them out the window time here. Calumet Speciality Products is down another 2 and change to a 15 handle and its down from 23 last week. Exterran Partners earnings (EXLP) did nothing to inspire and the stock is down 1 and change to 23. Inergy Holdings (NRGP) and Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) are down 2 plus as well. We're down almost 30 points from the mlp index high at 316. If markets dont turn soon we may have to question whether the bull move that began in December 2008 at 150 has run its course. Too early to come to that conclusion but it is something to consider since we went up over 100% in 16 months plus 6 distribution payouts.
IS IT LIKE IT WAS IN FEBRUARY?



The chart looks like its repeating itself in which case we need to hold in here today. Certainly closing just a few ticks under the 89 day moving average leads one to wonder whether we will hold or whether we have more to go on the downside. And of course this break leads you to wonder whether the uptrend is over. We suspect it isn't but of course whenever something like this happens it is a natural tendency to be nervous.

This morning more earnings with Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) and Energy Transfer Equity (ETE) on the tape. Also this morning Genesis Energy (GEL) reports earnings that missed estimates (if that means anything) and beats on revenue. El Paso Partners (EPB) reports earnings that beat estimates but the company is taking in its 2010 guidance. On the anal-ist front Wunderlich starts Inergy (NRGY) and Inergy Holdings (NRGP) at buys.

Markets are a little softer ahead of the open as the focus continues on Europem Greece, and the Euro which is now at 1.27 on the dollar. 10 year rates are a little higher this morning. Crude is a little lower and under 80 bucks a barrel. Nat gas inventory numbers are out later this morning.

Back to MLPS if you are buying or adding to positions in here it might be wise to ladder in underneath the market since there is a tendency to chuck these things out the window at the open before bids show up. This could help you pick up some bargains especially in the ones that have yet to go ex-distribution. This of course assumes we are at some sort of a trading bottom. And there is guarantee we are there yet.

Wednesday, May 05, 2010

Doesnt appear that the stabilizing attempt is going to hold. MLPS back down over 9 points. The dow is down 50. Its been a slow drift southward since going positive midday on the overall tape. Crude down nearly 3 bucks on the day. Calumet Specialty Products (CLMT) continues to sink into the abyss down over 4 dollars now at 17 and is the days biggest loser.
Might this be a good place to go long the TBT Double 20 year yield? 3.55 on the 10 year yield is near the bottom of its recent range. The TBT has sold down from 50 to 43 since hitting a 4.05 yield about a month ago.

Markets holding up well in here with the dow down just 12 points as of this post. Has the selling run its course?

Atlas Pipeline Partners (APL) is up 25 cents among the very few winners.
ARRIVED AT CRITICAL JUNCTION!






It didnt take long for MLPS to arrive at an important place. This morning with all the big gap downs coupled with ex distributions and 10 points came off the index in a big hurry. Free cash on days like today coupled with well below market prices can bring gains to the nimble who are waiting to catch mlps being thrown out of windows. Right now the index is down 9 at 297 and small change. Calumet Specialty Products (CLMT) announced earnings this morning that came up short and the stock leads the losers list down 3. Alliance Resource is down almost the same on no news and an ex distribution. 1 to 2 point losses litter the list of major mlps. Inergy Holdings got a downgrade from Wells Fargo and its down 1.44. Its ex dis by a point this morning as well.

Atlas Pipeline Partners (APL) is flat and Atlas Holdings (AHD) is actually up a few ticks on earnings last night. The company said it had the equivalent of 38 cents in distributable cash flow which may mean a distribution is coming back somewhere down the road. The Willams pair (WMZ,WPZ) put up earnings this morning. Both are down with everything else.

Okay we are at the 89 day moving average on the mlp index which we last hit in early February and that was an execellent entry point. If this one is another excellent entry point now depends on the overall market and whether its correction has run its course or not. Of course we are tied to outside events right now with Greece falling apart and the threat for the euro debt crisis to spread out to others. Watch the euro for any signs of a rally as that may turn the market around. It seems to be trying to put in some sort of tradeable bottom today but catching these falling knives is never easy.

Tuesday, May 04, 2010


MLPS at the lows of the day with the index down 6 and change. Notice we are down in the support zone of the uptrend and a break below 300 is possible if the market sell off continues beyond today. Still no sign of a final top for now as long as support lows. The area provides another entry point; as long as the uptrend is not broken. Of course its always scary to buy when this happens. Most of the big mlp heavyweights like Buckeye (BPL) Oneok (OKS) Williams (WPZ) and Sunoco Logistics (SXL) among other down 1 point or more. Kinder Morgan (KMP) leads the losers list down over 2. No winners in the group today.
Markets selling off hard today with the dow down over 200 and mlps down over 5 points. Everything in the group is now lower led by Kinder Morgan Partners (KMP) which has chosen a terrific day to do an offering. The stock is down 1.86. Inergy Holdings (NRGP) was up on the stock split news but its also a little lower now.

Its all about Europe, the euro, Greece, Italy, Spain etc etc etc.
Is it time for a split? Judging from this chart...it is time! And a 3-1 split no less!


Inergy LP (NRGY) is not splitting but it is reporting record earnings.
ANOTHER KINDER MORGAN STOCK SALE.



Kinder Morgan Partners (KMP) secondaries seem to be about as common as white bread and this one is a 6.5 million share sale. The stock is down 1 and some change in the premarket and will have a negative drag on the mlp index today. Earnings are due out this morning for Magellan Midstream Partners (MMP) and after the close today we have Atlas Pipeline Partners (APL) putting up numbers. The stock has moved back to almost 15 but to go higher from here it needs to resume the payout. That will be key in whether the stock price can go higher. Same goes i think for Crosstex (XTEX,XTXI) which has moved back to almost 12 and 9 respectively. Crosstex earnings are not out until next week.

Stock futures are down this morning by 8 points with dow futures down 60. Crude is lower and so is nat gas. Euro markets are down hard again as its all about the spreading mess from Greece. Think back about a 15 or so months ago in the midst of our market collapse and the talk of abandoning the dollar as the worlds reserve currency and going to the Euro! Since then the Euro has gone from 1.50 to 1.30 and the talk now is whether the currency can survive. Sure our debt is bad..but its far better then everyone elses!

Monday, May 03, 2010

BP (BP) which was down over 4 is now down less than 1 as news that they are going to try to cap the leaking oil well in the gulf is sending mlps back up over 1 on the index and at the highs of the day. The dow is up 165 and building on its gains. Inergy Holdings (NRGP) and Holly Partners (HEP) are up a point as the days big winners.

The mlp index is now at the highs of the day.
MLPS turning around with the dow up 160 so they are being pulled higher. A commenter earlier noted that the spill is a long term positive for mlps which i agree with but for now its just another entry point. The index is now up fractionally.
The oil spill is weighing on drillers and for that matter most energy stocks in general. MLPs are mostly lower with the index down 1. Inergy Holdings (NRGP) Holly Partners (HEP) Buckeye Partners (BPL) and Buckeye Holdings (BGH) are higher fractionally. Alliancer Resource (ARLP) Calumet (CLMT) Natural Resource (NRP) Plains All American (PAA) and Williams Partners (WPZ) are fractional losers.

Dow up 100 points as money is flowing into everything else and we seem to be getting back most of what was lost on Friday. At least the up market is keeping the selling from getting out of hand.
MONDAY MORNING BOUNCE TIME!





Friday's selloff in the overall market may have been many things including end of month nonsense. So far it is not the beginning of a pullback and it wont be until we break those moving averages. Meanwhile MLPS did nothing wrong Friday and after an initial pullback, closed down a small fraction. The 10 year dropping back to the bottom of the trading range certainly didnt hurt the group so for the moment we are straddling support just below and new trading highs just above.

No headlines so far this morning to work with on the corporate side. Most of the attention is on BP and the gulf spill. Naturally i have a week booked and payed for in Panama City in July! Nothing on the upgrade downgrade list this morning so far. The distribution cycle will play out this week as most mlps go ex-distribution in the next few days. Stock futures are higher. Crude futures are higher while nat gas is flat.