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Thursday, October 09, 2008

KINDER & ENTERPRISE HAVE SPOKEN
NOW WHERE R THE REST OF YOU?



Yesterday we saw MLPS collapse and crash in a breathtaking 15% decline in the first hour and a half of trading. Remember these are not tech stocks. It used to take 2 years to see a move of that magnitude. Then Kinder Morgan which was down 7 dollars at one point came out and said they plan to increase their distribtuion to 1.02 from 99 cents and that began an equally breathtaking turnaround. Enterprise Products Partners (EPD) then followed by actually annoucing a distribution increase about 2 weeks earlier than normal. The buying spread out to other issues and by 3pm the mlp index actually turned higher by almost 2 points or an almost 20% move from the low of the day. Given the historic conditions we are experiencing we unit holders need to know whats going on. So you CEO's, CFO's and Investor Relations people out there; It is time to speak. You owe it to your unit holders to say something about current market conditions and the impact on your companies. Many MLPS have seen haircuts of 20,30 even 40% in some cases since Monday! We all understand these are extreme conditions and there are many things going on that have nothing to do with your day to day operations. The great Lehman unwind continues for example. Hedge funds that own MLPS are selling into a vacuum. Speak to us about the distribution. Tell us if you are seeing any impact from the frozen credit markets. Tell us about the quarter or future quarters if you are not in quiet periods. But for God sake's say something!

Some dizzying yields out there this morning. Atlas Pipeline Partners (APL) is priced to yield 19.50%. Now think about what that means. Assuming the distribution doesn't increase over the next 4 years. At this price the distributions pay for the stock in less than 4 years. So in four years your cost basis is zero. Some other yields out there.

Kinder Morgan...9.5%......7.5 years

Oneok............ 10.0 %..........7.2 years.

Nustar....11.4%...........6 years

Buckeye..11.5%....6 years

EV Partners..20%....3.6 years.

Linn Energy...20%..........3.6 years
Another way to look at this is if credit markets normalize one day many of these stocks could easily double in price from here. But when that day comes...and it could come next decade...is anyone's guess.
Since declines like this haven't occured since the '87 crash and the crash of '29 the market is certainly due for an oversold dead cat bounce and this morning futures are certainly setting up for a higher open. And we don't have any new bank failures to speak of so far today. So maybe some calmness is setting in for a few hours. No corporate developements this morning and no upgrades or downgrades.
Given the magnitude of the MLP decline nothing short of a 20 to 25 point up day would be acceptable. Maybe we'll get that today or in a couple of days of trading. You can't drop 15% in 6 trading sessions (as measured by the DOW) and not have a bounce. A few small MLP up trades in the pre-market but nothing overally meaningful

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Here's a quote from the Oct 8 issue of Citi's MLP report:

"Recent Volatility Not Reflecting Cash Flow Risk — Last week the Citi MLP Index was down nearly 9% and declined by 11% yesterday. This type of volatility in a sector with defensive characteristics leads us to believe that fundamentals and valuations are being completely ignored in the near term as fear and forced liquidations by distressed hedge fund investors seem to be the primary drivers of recent unit price performance."

Also, nice post this morning, Joe. As painful as it might be to actually consider buying ANYTHING in this nutty market, if you've got the cash and the nads, this would be the time.

Lee