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Wednesday, November 14, 2007

ITS UGLY LOOKING CHART DAY!


At least is seems that way. For example, about the best thing we can say about the Linn Energy (LINE) chart is that we just came down and filled a gap left open late last year. Otherwise its deeply oversold...which btw doesn't mean it can't get more oversold. We seem to be getting this one point plus down days which get relieved by rallies in the last half hour which bring it back about half to three quarters of the way back. Going foward yield is approaching 10% which means either the market feels the distribution hike is not going to happen or this is a buying opportunity. I tend to think that this is about supply. I noticed yesterday 2 blocks of shares crossed...100,000 and 50,000 around 2pm. So it seems we still have some big holders selling shares as restricted holders see their shares available for sale. At some point this has got to bottom and a snapback rally will come fast and furious. Just don't ask me when because frankly i have no idea.



Meanwhile we have the mlp index chart which is no bargain either. We were lucky enough to rally back to a very small up day. We just seem to be under pressure as company after company brings on a new supply of shares...Nustar being the latest as it priced its offering yesterday.


We're oversold here as well so a snapback rally is in order at some point but i continue to wonder whether we need to take a trip back down again to that 290 area to put in a triple bottom. But that means we have to sweat out a break of that level and i would rather not have to do that. I'm sure the market exists to accomodate me!

Earnigns news this morning from Eagle Rock which released at 4am! Also the company announces that its treating plant needs to go down for maintanence for about 3 weeks but that it should not have any impact on its proposed distribution increase next quarter. Also Targa Resources (NGLS) posted earnings this morning. Encore Partners (ENP) is getting an upgrade from UBS which takes it from neutral to buy.

Crude oil is rallying this morning after dropping down to near 90 bucks yesterday intraday. Stock futures have turned lower this morning as we wait for ppi at 8:30 which is expected to be a hot number. My initial impression of yesterdays 300 point dow rally is that it was a long overdue snapback rally. Follow through is required if this is not going to be a one day wonder. We'll know soon enough if the August lows need to be revisited and if they are...expect MLPS to do the same.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Today is a big distribution day, with 40 % of my MLPs distributions being paid today. Also as MLP investors have a little more cash today, perhaps this will help soak up some of secondary share offerings such as those from ETE and NS.

I don't think the $AMZ is distribution adjusted. This is significant considering that most MLP X/distribution dates are clustered in a two or 3 week period.
If one figures an average of 6.0% annual distribution (an off the top of the head estimate for $AMZ distribution yeild) or 1.5 % quarterly, that would add 4.53 points to the $AMZ, bringing it to 306.47. If 306.47 is the bottom for this downtrend , the chart will look healthier with 306.47 being a higher low ( following a higher high ).

JF50